N-H Fantasy Sports

Fantasy baseball: Early 2012 rankings -- catchers

2012-01-27T07:10:00.001-05:00

Last week, we broke down the top 12 catchers in fantasy baseball following the news of Victor Martinez's knee injury.

In the first of a 10-part series leading into the start of spring training, we're going to give you our top 20. In the next couple weeks, we'll follow with the top players at first base, second base, shortstop, third base, designated hitter, the outfield, starting pitcher, closer and the overall top 100.

Note: All players are ranked at the positions at which they are expected to spend the most time in 2012, not all positions at which they are eligible. ... Stats are from 2011.

Rank, player, team R-HR-RBI-SB-Avg.
1. Carlos Santana, Indians 84-27-79-5-.239
2. Brian McCann, Braves 51-24-71-3-.270
3. Mike Napoli, Rangers 72-30-75-4-.320
4. Buster Posey, Giants 17-4-21-3-.284
5. Alex Avila, Tigers 63-19-82-3-.295
6. Joe Mauer, Twins 38-3-30-0-.287
7. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks 65-18-86-1-.282
8. Matt Wieters, Orioles 72-22-68-1-.262
9. Jesus Montero, Mariners 9-4-12-0-.328
10. Yadier Molina, Cardinals 55-14-65-4-.305
11. Russell Martin, Yankees 57-18-65-8-.237
12. Wilson Ramos, Nationals 48-15-52-0-.267
13. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays 47-23-78-1-.219
14. Geovany Soto, Cubs 46-17-54-0-.228
15. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics 54-14-44-2-.237
16. Salvador Perez, Royals 20-3-21-0-.331
17. Chris Iannetta, Angels 51-14-55-6-.238
18. Nick Hundley, Padres 34-9-29-1-.288
19. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers 45-12-59-2-.265
20. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox 38-8-48-0-.287

Last three out: John Buck, Marlins; Carlos Ruiz, Phillies; Devin Mosoraco, Reds.

Eligibility notes: Santana and Napoli can play first base, but obviously are much more valuable in fantasy behind the plate.

Key stats: Napoli achieved his lofty numbers in only 369 at-bats last season. His career year, not coincidentally, occurred in a season in which he cut down on his strikeouts. In his six-year career, Napoli has fanned once every 3.5 at-bats. Last season, he struck out once per 4.3 at-bats. Hey, it's progress.

NEXT: First basemen

Fantasy baseball: Miguel Cabrera returns to third base

2012-01-26T17:52:00.001-05:00

If you're an Indians fan, the news of the Tigers' signing of Prince Fielder was a Travis Hafner-sized blow to your team's hopes of winning its division.

If you're a fantasy baseball owner who takes the fake game more seriously than the real one, Fielder's nine-year, $214 million comes with a bonus: Miguel Cabrera's return to third base.

Prior to the news, I had Cabrera ranked second at first base, behind Albert Pujols. I have yet to compile my overall top 100, but Cabrera was a given to crack the top five.

Now, he seems to be a lock to be No. 2 overall -- again behind Pujols.

If you draft Cabrera with the intention of playing him at third base, keep in mind you'll likely have to wait a couple of weeks until he becomes eligible at the hot corner. But it will be well worth it.

Prior to the news of Cabrera's position switch, another player changing positions -- the Marlins' Hanley Ramirez -- seemed set to be the top fantasy third baseman.

In the early rankings I have compiled, the top eight third basemen prior to Cabrera's move were Ramirez, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Adrian Beltre, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman and Pablo Sandoval. None of the eight had 500 at-bats last season.

Ramirez batted .243 -- one point worse than Longoria -- in 2011. Wright hit .254, Beltre is injury-prone, Zimmerman failed to get 400 at-bats because of injury, Youkilis has had a combined 793 at-bats the last two seasons, and A-Rod finished 27 at-bats shy of 400. Sandoval had only 426 at-bats, 55 runs and 70 RBI last season.

All of which makes Cabrera a much more valuable third baseman than a first baseman. Especially when you consider that in eight full major-league seasons (discounting his 314 at-bats as a rookie with the Marlins in 2003), he has batted .320 with averages of 102 runs, 33 homers and 115 RBI.

Miggy is a career .317 hitter. His on-base percentage is .395 and his OPS is .950.

In the last three seasons, he has batted .324, .328 and .344.

In the last two years, his OPS is 1.042 and 1.034.

He's been so good he will get serious consideration at No. 1 overall.

I'd take Pujols ahead of Cabrera, though the latter's move to third makes it a much more difficult decision than we're accustomed to in the annual Albert vs. Miggy debate.

Fantasy basketball: Analyzing Evan Turner's value

2012-01-19T20:37:00.002-05:00

Evan Turner was the second overall pick in what appears to be a decidedly mediocre 2010 NBA draft.

That draft had John Wall and ... a lot of questions. That obviously worked in the former Buckeye's favor.

In Year 2, Turner has been a reserve in all but 14 of his 91 NBA games. He hasn't been terrific, but his primary obstacle has been Philly's depth at shooting guard and small forward.

This season, four shooting guards and small forwards on the 76ers' roster -- Andre Iguodala (34.4), Thaddeus Young (27.9), Turner (26.2) and Jodie Meeks (25.2) -- are averaging more than 25 minutes per game.

The glut, and the resulting lack of huge playing time (Turner has played more than 31 minutes twice this season), have limited Turner's fantasy value.

He's owned in only 23.8 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com. Thus, if you are among the few who play fantasy hoops, you probably don't consider Turner a starter.

I would disagree on the latter point.

Turner has played more than 25 minutes in nine of his 13 contests this season. Let's compare his per-game averages in the nine contests in which he has played more than 25 minutes, and the four games in which he hasn't:

-- Games with more than 25 minutes: 13.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 50.0 percent from the field, 75.6 percent from the free-throw line.

-- Games with 25 minutes or fewer: 3.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 33.3 percent from the field, 33.3 percent from the line.

If you need help at shooting guard or small forward (the two positions at which Turner should be eligible), know this before you acquire Turner:

He won't help you at all in 3-pointers (he has made two this season) and he's not as productive in steals as you might think (0.7 per game).

But he makes up for it with his ability to rebound (he had 11 in 29 minutes Wednesday) and his potential to help you in field-goal percentage and scoring, and not hurt you in turnovers (1.7 per game) or free-throw percentage.

Discount the 76ers' games last Saturday and Monday (Turner played 13 minutes in the former and sat out the latter because of a quad injury), and Turner has played at least 28 minutes in four consecutive games.

We know what we does with increased playing time. Wednesday, in his first game back from the quad injury, he had 20 points, 11 rebounds and two steals.

Pick him up before it's too late.

Fantasy baseball: How Victor Martinez's injury affects the 2012 catcher rankings

2012-01-19T17:06:00.000-05:00

Victor Martinez was going to be a full-time designated hitter in 2012.

The Tigers have a very good, much younger catcher in 24-year-old Alex Avila, making Martinez a perfect fit for DH.

The news this week that the 33-year-old could miss the season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during offseason conditioning was still a big blow to the fantasy catching ranks, however.

Many leagues allow you to use a player at the position at which he played the season before, even if said player has changed positions and might never go back. Thus, if you had the option of playing Martinez at catcher or utility in fantasy, you certainly would have selected catcher.

Sadly, we probably won't have that choice this year. The Tigers said this week Martinez likely needs surgery, making his chances of playing in 2012 remote at best.

Martinez no longer seems to be much of a power hitter -- he had 12 home runs last season, down from his average of 21.5 in 2009 and '10 -- but he still rakes. In 2011, he batted a career-high .330, drove in 103 runs and had an OPS of .850 (up from .844 the year before).

In his career, he's a .303 hitter who has had at least 20 home runs five times and driven in 100 runs or more four times.

Martinez's injury thins an already-skinny catching position in fantasy.

He would have been our top-ranked catcher. Now, we're left with his long-term replacement in Cleveland, Carlos Santana, leading a list that features five very good options, a former stud who is a risky pick before the middle rounds (Joe Mauer), two solid-but-unspectacular choices (Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters), a touted rookie (Jesus Montero) and ... a Molina?

Our early top 12 at catcher as spring training nears:

1. Carlos Santana, Indians: Batted .239, but had 27 homers, 79 RBI and 84 runs in 2011.

2. Brian McCann, Braves: He's not the stud he once was, but McCann has still averaged 23 homers and 74 RBI the last two seasons.

3. Mike Napoli, Rangers: We doubt he can come close to duplicating his sensational 2011 (.320, 30 homers, 75 RBI and 72 runs in 369 at-bats).

4. Buster Posey, Giants: He was productive as a rookie in 2010, but is coming off a frightening ankle injury sustained in a home-plate collision early last season.

5. Alex Avila, Tigers: He batted .295 with 19 homers and 82 RBI in his first full big-league season.

6. Joe Mauer, Twins: He says he's recovered from an illness- and injury-plagued 2011, but we're left with the realization he can hit for average and not much else.

7. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks: He was solid in three categories in 2011 (.282, 18 homers, 86 RBI).

8. Matt Wieters, Orioles: OK, so maybe he isn't as good as we thought he would be, but Wieters did hit 22 homers and drive in 68 last season.

9. Jesus Montero, Mariners: He batted .328 in 61 at-bats as a rookie for the Yankees. He was traded to the Mariners in the Michael Pineda deal.

10. Yadier Molina, Cardinals: Granted, he hit .305 with 14 homers and 65 RBI last season, but this is where the rankings seem to take a dive toward A.J. Pierzynski levels.

11. Russell Martin, Yankees: He started strong for the Yankees last season, but tailed off and finished with a .237 average, 18 homers and 65 RBI.

12. Wilson Ramos, Nationals: He hit .267 with 15 homers and 52 RBI in 389 at-bats in his first full major-league season. In a 12-team league, he could be a starter, which makes me miss Martinez already.

Fantasy football: Would you take Rob Gronkowski in the first round in 2012?

2012-01-12T20:00:00.001-05:00

ESPN fantasy analyst Matthew Berry started an interesting debate Tuesday when he ranked Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski ninth overall in his early top 100 for 2012.

A tight end in the top 10?

Even during Antonio Gates' back-to-back boom seasons of 2004 and '05, he was a fourth-round pick in fantasy. In those two years, Gates had a combined 170 catches for 2,065 yards and 23 touchdowns in 30 games.

This season, Gronk was much better. Ninety receptions for 1,327 yards. Seventeen receiving touchdowns (and 18 overall) -- the most ever for a tight end.

Berry's ranking, and the cyber-arguing that ensued, compelled me to look up Tony Gonzalez's numbers during his time as a stud with the Chiefs.

In 2000, Gonzalez posted similar numbers to Gronkowski in receptions (93) and yards (1,203), but he reached the end zone nine times. In 2004, he had 102 catches for 1,258 yards -- and seven TDs. In 2007 and '08, he had norms of 98 receptions for 1,115 yards, but he scored only five and 10 times, respectively.

Again, no comparison to the Gronk.Maybe the latter really is that good.

Here's my problem with taking a tight end in the top 10 of a draft:

OK, two problems: 1. There is no guarantee Gronkowski will come close to those numbers in 2012, especially in TDs -- the area in which he truly separated himself from past versions of Gates and Gonzalez. 2. He has a very good teammate who plays the same position, Aaron Hernandez, who was among the top three or four tight ends in fantasy in 2011.

Yes, the Patriots will throw it enough to make both Gronkowski and Hernandez happy, especially since the tight ends are their best options aside from wide receiver Wes Welker.

But if you're going to take a tight end that high, he better be as good as Gronkowski -- and the Saints' Jimmy Graham -- were in 2011.

I also understand the argument that there is a bigger difference between the top two tight ends -- Gronk and Graham -- and the rest of the position than there is at other positions.

I still can't shake this thought, though: If you take a tight end in the first round, you might be left scrambling at running back and/or wide receiver in the latter rounds.

You could get lucky -- see Jackson, Fred; Bush, Reggie; Cruz, Victor; Nelson, Jordy; or several other examples.

Or you could get the Felix Jones-Jonathan Stewart, no-playoffs platter.

Maybe I'm old school, but I'd rather take my chances at tight end with the likes of Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Brandon Pettigrew, Gates or Vernon Davis later in the draft, after I select a stud quarterback and, hopefully, a very good running back and receiver.

If you take Gronkowski in the top 10, you can still get a very good back or receiver early in Round 2. And you'll be left to hope you hit a couple of home runs in Rounds 3, 4 and/or 5.

It was the Year of the Quarterback.

Will 2012 be the Year a Tight End Makes the First Round?

My guess is no.

Fantasy football: Playoff pools, top WRs and TEs

2012-01-05T20:03:00.001-05:00

In the latest edition of the Year of the Quarterback (see Part I in this series), the elite tight ends were historically prolific, too.

The top two in the rankings that follow -- the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski and the Saints' Jimmy Graham -- combined for 189 receptions for 2,637 yards and 28 touchdowns in the regular season. The combined totals for Gronkowski and Graham (JimRob Grahamkowski?) were very comparable to the top two receivers below -- Wes Welker and Jordy Nelson, who combined for 190 catches, 2,832 yards and 24 TDs.

As is the case with the quarterbacks, the tight ends have a few no-doubt-about-it choices, followed by a huge gap. After the Packers' Jermichael Finley and the 49ers' Vernon Davis, there is a future Hall of Famer (the Falcons' Tony Gonzalez) who will be lucky if he plays more than one playoff game, followed by the Steelers' No. 3 or 4 receiving option (Heath Miller).

On to the rankings (note that we ranked only one receiver from each team, since most pools only allow you to select one player from each NFL playoff team):

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Wes Welker, Patriots
2. Jordy Nelson, Packers
3. Marques Colston, Saints
4. Mike Wallace, Steelers
5. Victor Cruz, Giants
6. Roddy White, Falcons
7. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
8. A.J. Green, Bengals
9. Calvin Johnson, Lions
10. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
11. Andre Johnson, Texans
12. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

TIGHT ENDS
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints
3. Jermichael Finley, Packers
4. Vernon Davis, 49ers
5. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
6. Heath Miller, Steelers
7. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
8. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
9. Owen Daniels, Texans
10. Ed Dickson, Ravens
11. Jake Ballard, Giants

More on the tight ends

If we could somehow have the option of choosing a team's tight ends, the Patiots would be a must-have with Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The latter, if included in the above rankings, would be No. 4, ahead of the 49ers' Davis, after catching 79 passes for 910 yards and seven TDs in the regular season. ... After Gonzalez, I would avoid the other tight ends if at all possible. The Texans' Daniels and the Giants' Ballard have both been limited by a knee injury, and the run-happy Broncos don't even have a tight end worth mentioning.

Notes on the wide receivers

Welker is an easy top choice in point-per-reception formats after racking up 122 catches for 1,569 yards and nine TDs. That is, if you want to select him instead of two of his teammates (Tom Brady or Gronkowski). ... I selected Nelson over stud teammate Greg Jennings because Nelson had 277 yards and five TDs in his last two games, and Jennings missed the Pack's last three contests with a knee injury. He is expected to play next week in the divisional round. If we were ranking more than one receiver on a team, I would put Jennings fourth, behind Colston. ... The Steelers' Wallace also has a very productive teammate at the same position (Antonio Brown, who had 69 catches for 1,108 yards), but Wallace has eight TDs to Brown's two. ... The Falcons' White is a narrow choice over teammate Julio Jones, who has reached the end zone six times in his last four contests. ... The Giants' Cruz had 82 catches for 1,536 yards and nine TDs in the regular season. I'd take him over Hakeem Nicks (76 receptions, 1,192 yards and seven TDs). ... Boldin is expected to play following late-season knee surgery. Teammate Torrey Smith (50 catches, 841 yards and seven TDs) is a tempting choice in his place. ... The great Calvin Johnson is ranked so low because we don't expect him to play more than one game, and the once-great Andre Johnson has been a shell of himself because of a hamstring injury.

PREVIOUS: Quarterbacks and running backs

NOTE: If you're hoping for defense/special teams and kicker rankings, a few words of advice: Fill out the remainder of your lineup, then take the best two options from the remaining five playoff teams. Selecting the best quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end combination (usually a total of seven spots) is infinitely more important.

Good luck, and may you follow the wise words of Mike Holmgren: Stay the course.

Fantasy football: Playoff pools, top QBs and RBs

2012-01-05T19:01:00.002-05:00

It was -- for what seems like the third consecutive season -- the Year of the Quarterback.

Drew Brees shattered Dan Marino's single-season record by throwing for 5,476 yards. Tom Brady also handily beat Marino's former mark of 5,084 by throwing for 5,235 yards, and Detroit's Matthew Stafford nearly reached Marino's 1984 record, finishing 46 yards shy.

It only makes sense, then, that if you play in a fantasy playoff league -- one in which you can select no more than one player from each NFL playoff team -- that you have to start with the quarterback.

Unless you believe the Steelers will make another Super Bowl run -- and to do so, they would likely would have to win at Denver, at Baltimore and at New England, in some order (well, we know the order starts with the Tim Tebows on Sunday) -- there are only three choices at QB.

Aaron Rodgers, Brees and Brady.

Take your pick.

We'll go with Rodgers for two reasons: 1. Despite sitting out the regular-season finale (and thus starting the Possibly Irrational Matt Flynn Is Going To Be A Free Agent! Frenzy), he accounted for 48 touchdowns (45 passing and three rushing) -- one more than Brees (46 passing, one rushing) and six more than Brady (39 passing and three rushing). 2. He plays for the team that seems most likely to win it all.

With that in mind, here are our rankings for the quarterbacks and running backs in playoff pools:

QUARTERBACKS
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Tom Brady, Patriots
3. Drew Brees, Saints
4. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
5. Eli Manning, Giants
6. Joe Flacco, Ravens
7. Matt Ryan, Falcons
8. Alex Smith, 49ers
9. Matthew Stafford, Lions
10. Andy Dalton, Bengals
11. Tim Tebow, Broncos
12. T.J. Yates, Texans

RUNNING BACKS
1. Ray Rice, Ravens
2. Darren Sproles, Saints
3. Arian Foster, Texans
4. Frank Gore, 49ers
5. Michael Turner, Falcons
6. Isaac Redman, Steelers
7. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
8. James Starks, Packers
9. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
10. Cedric Benson, Bengals
11. Willis McGahee, Broncos
12. Kevin Smith, Lions

More on the quarterbacks

Roethlisberger is banged up and isn't playing his best, but he does have the chance to play three times, even if the Steelers fall a game short of the Super Bowl. That possibility makes him the only real "sleeper" pick outside the top three. ... Brees is ranked third because of the combination of a second-round game at San Francisco and, should the Saints make it that far, an NFC championship matchup with the Packers at Lambeau. Advantage: Rodgers and Brady. One disadvantage for the latter: The Pats could face the Steelers and Ravens back-to-back, though both games would be at home. ... Stafford has the numbers, but his Lions, who play at New Orleans on Saturday, likely will be one-and-done. ... One outside-the-box candidate, if you believe the Giants can make a run in the NFC: Eli Manning, who finished 67 yards shy of 5,000 and threw for 29 scores.

Notes on the running backs

Rice likely will be the choice at one of the running back spots in the vast majority of playoff leagues. He has the numbers (a combined 2,068 rushing and receiving yards, and 15 TDs), and his team doesn't leave many other viable options aside from its defense and kicker Billy Cundiff. ... Sproles is a tempting choice in any league that awards a point for a reception. He had nine total TDs, rushed for 603 yards and caught 86 passes for 710 yards in the regular season. ... Foster is the best back other than Rice, but he will only play two games if his hobbled team can beat the Bengals on Saturday. ... Gore (1,211 yards rushing, eight TDs) and Turner (1,340 yards, 11 TDs) are the next-best selections. After that, it gets so dicey we ranked Redman No. 6. The latter is the Steelers' replacement for Rashard Mendenhall. You might remember him for fumbling twice against the Browns last week, but he was productive in a backup role prior to those miscues (479 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, three TDs).

NEXT: Wide receivers and tight ends

Fantasy football: Projecting Adrian Peterson's 2012 value

2011-12-27T20:16:00.000-05:00

He was the one on whom we knew we could count.

Adrian Peterson hasn't been the best fantasy player the last five years, but he's been among the most consistent.

He has 67 touchdowns in 73 NFL games. Prior to this season, which for Peterson ended Saturday with a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee, A.P. had rushed for at least 1,298 yards in his first four professional campaigns.

Even in a down year by his standards (970 yards), Peterson had 13 TDs in 12 games -- matching 2007 (his rookie season) and 2010 for his second-best total with the Vikings.

Now, with Peterson set to undergo surgery soon, we're left with the fact that he has to be considered, at best, a fringe top-10 running back next season.

The Vikings hope Peterson will be able to return early in the 2012 season, but there is no way he will be drafted ahead of Ray Rice, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew and even Chris Johnson in eight months.

Depending on the late-summer reports, he could be a much greater risk than the likes of Matt Forte, Frank Gore, Michael Turner, Ryan Mathews, Marshawn Lynch and Steven Jackson.

That would leave Peterson outside the top 11. Obviously, it's too early to know if he'll fall that far.

But it's worth pondering. Peterson, at age 27 (on March 21), getting drafted in the third round in fantasy.

If you don't think that will happen, remember the case of Foster -- who suffered a much less severe injury (hamstring) in the preseason, then fell from the consensus No. 1 or 2 pick to the No. 5 or 6 range because owners (myself included) didn't want to take the risk at the top of Round 1.

Foster has rushed for 1,224 yards, scored 12 TDs and caught 53 passes for 617 yards this season.

Peterson will never come close to th

ose receiving numbers, but he could be a big-name, high-value target late in the second round on draft day.

Fantasy football: Anquan Boldin replacement options

2011-12-22T19:19:00.000-05:00

If you have been starting the Ravens' Anquan Boldin, you probably weren't pleased with Thursday's news that the wide receiver will miss the rest of the regular season following knee surgery.

If you look at Boldin's numbers, though, you'll realize it's not as bad as it seems.

In his last six games, Boldin has a combined 16 catches for 260 yards and a touchdown. He hasn't scored a TD in his last four contests, and he has reached the end zone three times all year.

Still feel lousy? OK, how about these four replacement options if you're in a 10- or 12-team league? The ownership percentages are for ESPN standard formats, and all four players are available in more than 60 percent of the leagues.

1. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (owned in 39.4 percent of the ESPN leagues): Tim Tebow's favorite target (lately, that actually hasn't been a bad thing) has seven receptions in each of his last two contests. In his last three games, Thomas has 18 catches for 338 yards and three TDs. Saturday's opponent, Buffalo, ranks 16th against the pass (230 yards per game) and has given up 24 TDs through the air.

2. Nate Burleson, Lions (27.0 percent): He had seven receptions for 81 yards and a score last week at Oakland, and has had at least five receptions in five of his last six contests. In the six-game span, Burleson has 35 catches. Saturday, the Lions will play host to San Diego, which ranks sixth against the pass but has allowed 24 TD tosses.

3. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders (32.3): He had eight receptions for 155 yards and a TD last week against the Lions and has 13 catches for 233 yards in his last two games. This weekend, Heyward-Bey and the Raiders will face the Chiefs, the league's No. 9 pass defense at 210 yards per game (22 TD tosses allowed).

4. Greg Little, Browns (9.3): He had five receptions for 131 yards and a score last week and would be ranked higher if it wasn't for Saturday's opponent. The Ravens are fifth in passing yards allowed per contest, and they have given up only 10 TD passes -- three fewer than the next-stingiest team (the Jets).

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Texans-Colts game

2011-12-22T15:01:00.001-05:00

It's championship week in fantasy, and as a Christmas gift, Arian Foster owners get a Week 16 matchup against a Colts run defense that is allowing 138.7 rushing yards per game and has given up 18 touchdowns on the ground.

Aside from Foster going bananas tonight, it should be a rather uneventful game for fantasy purposes. Because of the Texans' injuries (Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are out) and the Colts' ineptitude without Peyton Manning, we have only four players on the start list. Only two or three more should be considered fringe candidates to play for a fantasy title -- Pierre Garcon, Donald Brown and Owen Daniels.

Let's break it down.

START

Texans: RB Arian Foster, K Neil Rackers, defense and special teams

Colts: WR Reggie Wayne

Quick slants: Foster has been terrific after giving us a predraft scare because of a hamstring injury. In 12 games, he has 11 TDs, 1,066 rushing yards and 50 receptions for 601 yards. ... Rackers is averaging 8.2 points per game and has made 26 of 32 field-goal attempts. ... The Texans' defense has been vastly improved. Houston ranks second overall (277.9 yards per game), is third in points allowed (16.9), second vs. the pass (181 yards) and fifth against the run (96.8). ... Wayne is a risky start post-Manning (59 receptions, 781 yards and three TDs), but we'll give him the nod after scoring twice in his last four games. Maybe he'll rack up some garbage-time points.

SIT

Texans: QB T.J. Yates, RB Ben Tate, TE Owen Daniels, WR Kevin Walter, WR Jacoby Jones

Colts: QB Dan Orlovsky, RB Donald Brown, WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, K Adam Vinatieri, defense and special teams

Quick slants: Yates had a big game at Cincinnati on Dec. 11 (300 yards, two TDs, one interception), but he came back to earth last week against Carolina (212 yards, zero TDs, two picks). ... Tate has rushed for 846 yards and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, but he has only 31 attempts the last four games and hasn't scored in that span. He could get 12 to 18 carries in a blowout, but playing him involves too much risk in the postseason. ... Daniels has been limited by a knee injury and hasn't reached the end zone in his last 10 contests. ... Jacoby Jones hasn't scored in his last four games, and Walter has one productive game in his last six (Dec. 11 at Cincy). He had six catches for 76 yards and a TD in that contest, and has a combined seven receptions for 64 yards and zero scores in the other five games in that span. ... Orlovsky threw for 353 yards, two TDs and a pick on Dec. 4 at New England. In two games since, he has a combined 218 yards passing, two TDs and one interception. ... Brown rushed for 161 yards and a TD last week, and as we wrote Tuesday, he's an intriguing keeper option assuming the Colts have a productive QB in 2012. But he's an iffy play against a very good Texans defense. ... The same goes for Garcon, who has had three huge games (at least 125 yards and two TDs in each contest) and 11 in which he hasn't done much (a combined 46 catches for 454 yards and zero TDs). ... Tamme has a combined two catches for 16 yards and a TD in his last two games. ... The Colts' struggles have limited Vinatieri to 20 field-goal attempts. ... Indy's defense ranks 28th overall, 28th vs. the run and 24th vs. the pass. The Colts are allowing 28.2 points per game, which ranks 30th in the league.

Fantasy football: Kahlil Bell is the (only) waiver-wire pick for Week 16

2011-12-20T20:11:00.000-05:00

On Tuesdays during the NFL season, we have had waiver-wire selections in this space that were based on ownership percentages in ESPN standard leagues.

(But you already knew that, being the loyal reader you are. Thank you, and happy holidays.)

Today, we have one pick, for two reasons: 1. It's championship week. If you've made it this far, the only reasons you should be on the waiver wire are if you need a defense or a kicker, or you had a recent injury. 2. There is almost no one left.

We've been mentioning Donald Brown, Demaryius Thomas and others on a weekly basis. We haven't written about Kahlil Bell, however.

The Bears running back received the most work of his two-year career on Sunday, carrying 15 times for 65 yards and catching five passes for 43 yards and a touchdown in Chicago's loss to Seattle.

The defeat followed an overtime loss at Denver in which Marion Barber made a couple of critical mistakes late. Against Seattle, Barber had 11 carries for 33 yards.

Bell might have been more of a part of the offense because of the sting from the Denver defeat, but the blowout contributed, too, since he is a better receiving threat than Barber.

On Christmas night, Bell and the Bears will play at Green Bay. That would seem to signal another blowout defeat, which, again, is good news for Bell's friends and family -- and his limited number of fantasy owners.

If you're in a point-per-reception league and are desperate for a flex play, he is an intriguing option. It's an option I wouldn't trust, but desperate times have called for worse decisions than this.

The Packers rank 12th against the run at 108.4 yards per game, but that's mostly because teams are always throwing against them once they're down (and because Green Bay's pass defense ranks 31st in the league).

Look a little deeper at the numbers and you'll notice the Pack are allowing 4.7 yards per carry, which ranks 27th in the league, and have given up 10 rushing TDs. Factor in Bell's value as a receiver against a bad pass defense, and maybe you will get lucky.

Is Brown a keeper?

Another intriguing backfield option is Indy's Donald Brown, who has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and rushed for 161 yards on 16 carries last week. Brown has emerged as the Colts' best back -- and a decent keeper option in deeper leagues in which lower draft picks and free-agent pickups can be keeper gold.

If you're planning on starting Brown this week, keep in mind that Indy will face Houston, which has the No. 5 run defense at 96.8 yards per game. The Texans have given up eight rushing TDs, which is tied with the Seahawks for the fifth-fewest in the league.

I wouldn't play Brown unless I was pretty weak at No. 2 running back, but I would have no problem with him as one of my lower-round keepers on a team that we can only assume will have a competent quarterback in 2012.

Fantasy football: Admitting I was wrong about Reggie Bush

2011-12-18T23:18:00.000-05:00

Reggie Bush was out to get me. I can only imagine how much worse it would have been if my name was Kris Humphries.

I wrote this seemingly innocent blog on Sept. 16, never thinking the former Mr. Kim Kardashian would come back to strike me a second time.

Sunday, it happened.

Bush rushed for 203 yards on 25 carries in the Dolphins' win over the Bills, which is all the more remarkable when you consider he had never rushed for more than 581 yards in a season prior to 2011.

He also scored a game-clinching touchdown Sunday with a 76-yard run. At that point, I knew I was as done as Humphries' reality television career.

If you read the blog above, you'll see Bush's first big game this season occurred following a draft in which I criticized my brother's selection of Bush with the first pick of the fifth-round in a 12-team league.

Sunday, in the final four of that league's postseason, I faced my brother.

You know the rest.

Bush has now rushed for 973 yards, caught 41 passes for 270 yards and scored seven times. He has three consecutive 100-yard games on the ground -- a sentence I never thought I would write in this space.

In Weeks 13 through 15 -- the regular-season finale, the first round of the playoffs and the semifinals, respectively, in most fantasy leagues -- Bush has 61 carries for 406 yards and two TDs. He has six receptions, and he's averaged 146.3 total yards per contest in that span.

He has produced those numbers after a season in which the Saints gave up on him. Bush was traded to the Dolphins after playing in eight games, rushing for 150 yards, catching 34 passes and reaching the end zone once last season.

It still seems like a crazy draft pick -- the 49th overall selection on a player who was set to share carries with a highly routed rookie (Daniel Thomas).

My brother got the last laugh. And a berth in the championship game.

I received the Kris Humphries treatment.

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Jaguars-Falcons game

2011-12-15T14:27:00.001-05:00

START

Jaguars: RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Falcons: QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez, K Matt Bryant, defense and special teams

Quick slants: Jones-Drew -- who has rushed for 1,222 yards, caught 35 passes for 348 yards and scored 10 touchdowns (four of them last week) -- is the only Jaguar worth playing. ... Ryan has thrown for 1,791 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions in his last six games. He has averaged 303 yards in his last five. ... Turner is expected to play with a groin injury, and he is a somewhat risky start for the fantasy semifinals because of the ailment and a three-game stretch in which he has rushed for only 180 yards, averaged 3.3 yards per attempt and been held out of the end zone. I'd play him, but I wouldn't feel great about it. ... White has 28 receptions for 402 yards and three TDs in his last four games, and he has scored in three straight. It's his best stretch since his sensational 2010 season (115 catches, 1,389 yards, 10 TDs). ... The 35-year-old Gonzalez is having his best year since going to Atlanta in 2009. He has 23 catches for 251 yards in his last three games and 73 receptions for 812 yards and seven TDs on the year. ... Bryant has scored 96 points and has misfired on just two kicks (21 of 23 field goals and perfect on 33 extra points). ... The Falcons' defense ranks 14th overall (336.5 yards per game), fifth against the run (not good news for MJD owners) and 22nd vs. the pass. The Falcons have 25 sacks and should be able to have their way with rookie Jags QB Blaine Gabbert.

SIT

Jaguars: QB Blaine Gabbert, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, defense and special teams

Falcons: WR Julio Jones

Quick slants: If you're wondering why we didn't list a Jaguars wide receiver, it's this: Jacksonville, amazingly, has zero players with 400 yards receiving. The Jags' leader in receiving yards is Mike Thomas, who has 391 yards and a norm of only 9.8 yards per catch. ... Gabbert has completed 50.3 percent of his passes and has 1,783 yards, 10 TDs and nine interceptions. ... Lewis had a breakout 2010 (58 receptions for 700 yards and 10 TDs) to earn a big contract extension, but he has yet to find the end zone this season. He has 32 catches for 385 yards. ... Scobee, like Bryant, has missed two kicks, but he hasn't had nearly as many opportunities (18 of 20 field goals and perfect on 19 PATs). ... The Jaguars' defense has been pretty darn good -- No. 4 overall (302.3 yards per game), No. 16 vs. the run (111.5) and No. 4 vs. the pass (191). But I wouldn't be anxious to play them at Atlanta, which has scored at least 23 points in seven of its last eight games and is averaging 25.3 points in its last four home contests. ... Jones is a tempting start after catching seven passes for 174 yards and two TDs in his last two games, but he tends to be all or nothing, which is extremely risky at this time of year. In Jones' four 100-yard games, he has a combined 23 receptions for 477 yards and four TDs. In his six other contests, he has 14 receptions for 193 yards and zero TDs.

Fantasy football: Week 15 waiver-wire picks

2011-12-13T20:33:00.000-05:00

If you lost wide receiver Greg Jennings last week in the first round of the fantasy playoffs, James Jones and Donald Driver aren't going to make you feel any better.

But they could be decent fill-ins for Jennings, who, as productive as he is, still suffers at times from the Packers spreading the wealth.

Jennings -- who had four touchdowns in his last five games but hadn't recorded a 100-yard contest since Week 7 -- suffered a knee injury last week that will keep him out of the remainder of the fantasy postseason. That leaves Jones and/or Driver as likely fantasy starters for desperate owners this week in the final four.

Before we get to this week's waiver-wire picks, we want to recommend Jones -- who is owned in 58.6 percent of the ESPN leagues, which doesn't make him "eligible" for the coveted weekly selections -- over Driver if both are available in your league.

Jones is a big-play threat (he is averaging 18.4 yards per reception this season) who has five TDs on the year. In his last six games, he hasn't been as much of a part of the Pack's attack (he has seven catches in that span, compared to 19 in Green Bay's first seven contests), but he figures to start with Jennings out of the lineup.

Six Packers have 26 catches or more this season, but Jordy Nelson and Jennings have been the primary TD targets (the two have combined to account for 19 of Aaron Rodgers' 39 touchdown passes).

Sunday, the Packers will play at Kansas City, which ranks 10th against the pass. Not that it matters any to Rodgers.

I would consider Jones a lower-level No. 3 starter in fantasy this week. As for Driver, he is one of our three waiver-wire recommendations. As always, the following players are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com. This trio is available in more than 81 percent of the ESPN formats.

1. Kevin Walter, WR, Texans (owned in 12.4 percent of the ESPN leagues): Walter had six receptions for 76 yards and a TD last week, his first game with more than two catches since Week 8. The touchdown was his first since Week 5. If Andre Johnson returns from a hamstring injury, Walter's value is obviously diminished. If Johnson is out, Walter is a decent play the next two weeks against the Panthers (No. 19 vs. the pass) and Colts (No. 21). Carolina and Indy have combined to allow 45 TD passes in 26 games this season.

2. Donald Driver, WR, Packers (18.1 percent): Driver has had four receptions in three of his last four game. The 36-year-old had four catches for 75 yards last week and two TDs the week before. From 2004 to '09, he was a 1,000-yard receiver each season.

He's no longer much of a fantasy option, but, like Jones, he is a mediocre fallback choice if you are without Jennings.

3. Chris Ivory, RB, Saints (0.6 percent): Ivory had 13 carries for 53 yards last week -- only his second game with more than six rushing attempts this season. Rookie Mark Ingram is expected to miss another game because of turf toe, leaving Ivory to share carries with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. Last week, Ivory had two more carries than Thomas (six) and Sproles (five) combined.

Last season, Ivory rushed for 716 yards, scored five TDs and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. This season, he can't be counted on, even with Ingram out, because of the Saints' tendency to ignore the run. His matchups aren't great, either. Sunday, the Saints will play the Vikings, who rank ninth vs. the run, followed by a game against the Falcons (No. 5). Both teams are allowing fewer than 4 yards per carry. At best, Ivory is a desperation play.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals (owned in 30.0 percent of the ESPN leagues); Marion Barber, RB, Bears (46.1), Donald Brown, RB, Colts (23.2); Jabar Gaffney, RB, Redskins (34.5); Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos (9.7); Titus Young, WR, Lions (3.1); Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders (12.8); Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (28.7); Jake Ballard, TE, Giants (30.3); Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (23.5).

Fantasy football: Week 14 waiver-wire picks

2011-12-06T20:07:00.000-05:00

If you have made it this far, you should be in your league's postseason.

If so, congrats. And I hope you don't have Matt Forte.

As always, the following list is comprised of players who are available in more than 50 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com. This week's group is available in more than 61 percent of the ESPN formats.

1. Brad Smith, WR, Bills (owned in 0.2 percent of the ESPN leagues): He has quickly developed into the Bills' second-best receiver behind Stevie Johnson. Smith had four receptions for 77 yards and a TD in Week 12, and seven catches for 72 yards on Sunday. David Nelson, by comparison, has a combined nine receptions for 81 yards in his last three games.

Also in Smith's favor is Buffalo's schedule the next three weeks: at the Chargers (No. 6 vs. the pass), home against the Dolphins (No. 24) and vs. the Broncos (No. 23). The three teams have allowed a combined 62 TD passes in 36 games (22 each by the Chargers and Broncos). Smith is at best a No. 3 receiver in a deep point-per-reception league, but if you're desperate, he's a decent play this week.

2. Marion Barber, RB, Bears (17.3 percent): We're not high on him, as we explained Sunday night, but we understand the value of adding a starting running back this late in the season.

3. Ricky Williams, RB, Ravens (38.7 percent): He had 16 rushes for 76 yards and a TD on Sunday against the Browns. OK, everyone runs well against the Browns. The game was also Williams' first with more than nine carries since Oct. 2.

Well, consider this: In the next three weeks, the Ravens will play the Colts (Sunday) and Browns (Week 16) at home, along with a Week 15 matchup at San Diego. The Colts are the league's third-worst at stopping the run and have given up 17 rushing TDs, the Chargers rank 26th in rushing yards allowed (seven TDs) and the Browns are 31st (10 TDs).

That's great news for Ray Rice owners, and decent news if you need to take a flier on a back who might get 12 to 18 carries and score a TD in garbage time.

4. Davone Bess, WR, Dolphins (17.9 percent): He has scored a TD in two of his last three games, but has had 52 receiving yards or fewer in every game but Miami's opener. Bess was a decent PPR starter in 2009 and '10 (a combined 155 receptions), but he's been disappointing this season (40 catches for 441 yards and two TDs).

Don't expect him to continue his TD trend -- Bess had all of seven scores during his 155-catch stretch in 2009 and '10. But the schedule is favorable. Miami will play host to the Eagles in Week 14 (Philly ranks 13th vs. the pass, but has given up 22 TDs through the air), then play at Buffalo (No. 19, 21 TDs) and at New England (No. 32, 18 TDs).

5. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders (29.5 percent): He had three receptions for 23 yards and a TD last week, his first score since Week 5. In his last three games, Heyward-Bey has 11 receptions, but he was shut out in Weeks 9 and 10. In Weeks 4 through 7, he had a combined 22 catches for 385 yards.

Translation: You have no idea what he's going to give you. All I can help you with here is Oakland will play Sunday at Green Bay, which ranks 31st vs. the pass, has allowed 22 TDs through the air and will mean a lot of throwing for Carson Palmer and company after they trail by three scores.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins (owned in 5.4 percent of the ESPN leagues); Alex Smith, QB, 49ers (36.3); Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings (32.3); Donald Brown, RB, Colts (25.0); Dexter McCluster, RB, Chiefs (20.4); Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (19.6); Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles (1.1); Steve Breaston, WR, Chiefs (29.1); Damian Williams, WR, Titans (10.2); Greg Little, WR, Browns (10.2); Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos (1.8); Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (23.3); Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals (24.3); Jake Ballard, TE, Giants (29.5).

Fantasy football: Matt Forte injury analysis

2011-12-04T20:49:00.001-05:00

If you subscribe to the fantasy handcuff rule -- always draft your stud running back's backup -- Marion Barber tests that theory like no one else.

Barber is a big name for a backup -- he had a combined 28 touchdowns in 2006 and '07, and was a productive fantasy starter at times during his tenure with the Cowboys.

He's also now a 28-year-old with a lot of wear on his tires. At this point in his career, he's a touchdown-or-bust fantasy play in a very deep league.

If you're a Matt Forte owner, Barber might also be your desperation start in Week 14, the beginning of the postseason in most fantasy leagues.

By now, you probably know Forte suffered a knee injury Sunday during the Bears' loss to the Chiefs. Fox's Jay Glazer reported it was a sprained MCL that could sideline the fantasy stud 2 to 4 weeks.

Translation: If you own Forte and qualified for the playoffs in your league, you're probably going to have to attempt to win a title without him.

If you didn't handcuff Forte with Barber -- I wouldn't have made the move, since I don't believe Barber is worth a roster spot in most leagues, and he's certainly not worth holding on to for 13 weeks unless your league is very generous with roster sizes -- don't get too excited about the possibility of acquiring the former Cowboy on the waiver wire Tuesday.

Barber is averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season. Yes, he has scored five touchdowns in nine games, but he is of almost no value in the passing game (he has three receptions for 18 yards this year), and if he doesn't score, he likely will get you all of four or five points.

The Bears' schedule the next three weeks isn't favorable, either.

In Week 14, Chicago plays at Denver, which entered this week ranked 19th defending the run, but has allowed only five TDs on the ground in 12 games.

In Week 15, the Bears will play host to the Seahawks (No. 12 vs. the run entering this week), and in Week 16, they play at the Packers (No. 13 vs. the run). In the latter battle, Barber would be lucky to get more than 12 to 15 carries, unless the 12-0 Packers suffer a loss prior to the game and have nothing to play for.

Injuries can force us to make lineup decisions we know aren't favorable. So if you're starting Barber in Week 14, I understand.

What I wouldn't understand would be if you thought it was anything but a lineup liability.

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Eagles-Seahawks game

2011-12-01T14:46:00.003-05:00

Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin are out tonight, and LeSean McCoy is questionable with a sprained toe. Seattle, meanwhile, has one player who is worth starting in fantasy.

Other than that, it should be a great game. At least we can learn something from NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock (just remember not to watch the postgame show, which includes such broadcasting luminaries as Deion Sanders, Michael Irvin and Steve Mariucci).

START

Eagles: RB LeSean McCoy, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Jason Avant, TE Brent Celek, K Alex Henery

Seahawks: RB Marshawn Lynch

Quick slants: McCoy is expected to play. If you're fighting for a playoff spot in the last week of your league's regular season, you better hope he does. McCoy has 1,050 yards rushing, 38 receptions, 1,278 total yards and 13 touchdowns. ... Jackson was benched late last week and has been a disappointment in his contract year. He hasn't scored a TD since Oct. 9. We get the feeling he is due. ... Avant had eight receptions for 110 yards and a TD last week, and as we wrote on Tuesday, we think he's a better option than starting receiver Riley Cooper. ... Celek has 29 receptions for 342 yards and one TD in his last five games. If he had one or two more TDs in that span, it would seem like 2009 all over again (Celek had 76 catches for 971 yards and eight scores that season). ... Henery is a low-level starting kicker, but might get more of a chance to boot a few field goals tonight. He is 18-for-21 and has 83 points on the season, but he's made only two kicks of 40 yards or more. ... Lynch's season stats aren't anything special (706 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, six TDs, 20 catches), but he has reached the end zone in seven consecutive games. In his last four contests, he has rushed for 443 yards, caught nine passes for 87 yards and has four TDs.

SIT

Eagles: QB Vince Young, WR Riley Cooper, defense and special teams

Seahawks: QB Tarvaris Jackson, WR Doug Baldwin, K Steven Hauschka, defense and special teams

Quick slants: Young has thrown for 658 yards in two starts in place of Vick, but he has three TDs, compared to four interceptions, in that span. Last week, he racked up 400 yards, mostly in garbage time of a 38-20 loss to the Patriots. ... Cooper has eight receptions for 146 yards and a TD in his last two games. If you are desperate for receiving help, he is a decent option against a Seahawks pass defense that ranks 20th. ... The Eagles' defense ranks 15th in total yards (344.6), 19th in points allowed (22.8), 16th vs. the pass (234 yards), 15th vs. the run (110.3), has forced 16 turnovers and has 30 sacks. ... Jackson has three more interceptions (12) than TD passes (nine). ... Baldwin should be Seattle's top target with Sidney Rice out for the season, but that's not saying much. He has eight receptions for 120 yards in his last two games, but hasn't scored in his last six contests. ... Hauschka is 17-for-20 on field-goal attempts, but Seattle's woeful offense has limited him to 69 points. ... The Seahawks' defense ranks 14th in total yards (340.5), is tied for 15th in points allowed (21.1), is 20th vs. the pass (240), 11th vs. the run (100.9), has forced 19 turnovers and has only 20 sacks.

Fantasy football: Week 13 waiver-wire picks

2011-11-29T20:08:00.000-05:00

It's Week 13 -- the last of the regular season in most leagues -- and you're looking for help.

Judging by the ownership percentages in ESPN leagues, let's hope you don't need much, because the pickings are at their slimmest of the season.

As always, we select players who are available in more than half of the ESPN formats. This week's batch can be had in more than 71 percent of the ESPN leagues.

1. Jason Avant, WR, Eagles (owned in 4.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): He had eight receptions for 110 yards and a TD last week, and Philly's receiving situation, like its "Dream Team" status, is in shambles. DeSean Jackson was benched late in last week's loss to the Patriots, but is expected to start Thursday at Seattle. Jeremy Maclin likely will sit again because of hamstring and shoulder injuries, leaving Avant and Riley Cooper as Philly's top two receivers when Jackson isn't on the field.

Prior to Sunday, Maclin had a combined four receptions for 35 yards in his previous three games, and he hadn't scored a touchdown all year. So don't expect him to produce as a No. 3 fantasy receiver on a consistent basis. The Eagles' schedule, however, is favorable the next two weeks, making Maclin the most intriguing waiver-wire candidate. Seattle ranks 20th against the pass, and the Eagles' Week 14 opponents, the Dolphins, are 24th.

2. Damian Williams, WR, Titans (6.9 percent): He has three TDs in his last four games and 17 receptions for 250 yards and three scores in his last five. Considering how up-and-down Nate Washington tends to be, Williams might be Tennessee's most reliable target. The schedule is also promising. In the next four weeks, the Titans will play the Bills (No. 22 vs. the pass), Saints (No. 27), Colts (No. 18) and Jaguars (No. 4).

3. Scott Chandler, TE, Bills (27.7 percent): The only reason we didn't list Chandler -- who had five TDs in Buffalo's first seven games -- earlier is he tended to be an all-or-nothing target. Yes, he had the five TDs, but he also had only 21 receptions in his first nine contests. Lately, that has changed, as Chandler has a combined 11 receptions for 121 yards in his last two games. Consider him a low-level No. 1 tight end in a 14- or 16-team league. Buffalo's Week 13 and 14 opponents -- Tennessee and San Diego -- rank 13th and ninth against the pass, respectively, but the Titans and Chargers have combined to allow 36 TD tosses.

4. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals (28.9 percent): As we wrote, the pickings are slim. Dalton appears to be a great draft selection by the Bengals, and his rookie numbers are impressive (2,509 yards, 16 TDs, 12 interceptions, 81.8 passer rating), but you don't want to start him in the fantasy postseason. Even worse is Cincy's schedule in Weeks 13 and 14 -- at Pittsburgh (No. 3 vs. the pass) and home vs. Houston (No. 2). Still, if you're desperate at QB because of injury, Dalton has thrown for a combined 643 yards the last two games, and he had seven TDs in three contests prior to that stretch.

5. Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles (0.5 percent): We prefer Avant over Cooper, but the latter, after not catching a pass in Philly's first nine games, has been productive with Vince Young behind center. Cooper has eight receptions for 146 yards and a TD the last two weeks. When Maclin returns, his value likely will be minimal.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins (owned in 3.7 percent of the ESPN leagues); Roy Helu, RB, Redskins (33.1 percent); Donald Brown, RB, Colts (11.8); Maurice Morris, RB, Lions (32.6); Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings (21.5); Greg Little, WR, Browns (11.1); Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (44.7); David Nelson, WR, Bills (23.7); Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (16.8); Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (24.5); Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals (23.1).

Fantasy football: Week 12 waiver-wire picks

2011-11-22T19:39:00.000-05:00

Adrian Peterson is banged up, Chris Johnson is back to not being Chris Johnson, Kevin Smith is a star two weeks after getting picked up as a street free agent ... Just another week in fantasy football.

As always, the waiver-wire picks include players who are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com. This week's batch can be had in more than 61 percent of the ESPN formats.

1. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions (owned in 0.8 percent of the ESPN leagues): In his second game since the Lions signed him out of desperation, Smith had 16 carries for 140 yards and two touchdowns, and he caught four passes for 61 yards and another score. Backfield mate Maurice Morris had only eight touches against Carolina, so there is a pretty clear chain of command with Jahvid Best out because of a concussion.

Thursday will be the fifth consecutive game Best has missed, and at this point we shouldn't be surprised if he doesn't play again this season. That makes Smith much more valuable than, say, Toby Gerhart, since there is an opportunity to acquire a player who will start the rest of the season.

Thursday's opponent, the Packers, rank 12th against the run and have allowed only six TDs on the ground -- mostly because they struggle to stop the pass, and many teams have to throw against them after they get down 14 points. That makes Smith a somewhat risky play this week, but he is a decent flex option.

In Weeks 13 and 14, Detroit will face the league's Nos. 19 and 9 run defenses in the Saints and Vikings, followed by favorable matchups in Week 15 (at the Raiders, No. 25 vs. the run) and 16 (vs. the Chargers, No. 23).

2. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings (owned in 1.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): Gerhart rushed for 18 yards on seven carries and caught one pass for 7 yards last week, when Peterson was sidelined for the majority of a loss to the Raiders because of an ankle injury. The latter hasn't been ruled out this week, but considering it's the dreaded high ankle sprain, we doubt the 2-8 Vikings will risk having their best player on the field with a bum wheel.

Sunday, Minnesota will play at Atlanta, which owns the league's No. 2 run defense and has given up only six TDs on the ground. All of which makes Gerhart much more ideally suited to be a flex play at best. If you own Peterson, though, you might not have that luxury and will be forced to play Gerhart as one of your two running backs.

3. Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins (owned in 2.8 percent of the ESPN leagues): He has had three touchdown passes in two of Miami's last three games. In that span, Moore has thrown for 613 yards with six TDs and one interception. More importantly, the Dolphins are 3-0 -- thus eliminating themselves from the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

In the next six weeks, Moore has three very favorable matchups: Week 13 vs. the Raiders (No. 20 vs. the pass), Week 15 at the Bills (No. 24) and Week 16 at the Patriots(No. 32). Thursday's foe, Dallas, is No. 13 against the pass.

If you lost Jay Cutler for the season or you just need a QB, Moore can be an immediate starter.

4. Joe McKnight, RB, Jets (owned in 1.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): With Shonn Greene missing most of last Thursday's loss to the Tim Tebow-powered Broncos because of an injury to his ribs, McKnight was a dual threat. He had 59 yards on 16 carries and caught six passes for 62 yards. His 22 touches were 41 fewer than his total from his first 18 NFL games.

Greene is expected to play this week, but LaDainian Tomlinson could be out a second consecutive game because of a knee ailment. If both are out, McKnight is a must-start against the Bills, who rank 20th against the run and have yielded 12 rushing TDs. If Greene plays, McKnight's value is obviously limited, but he could still receive flex-play consideration in point-per-reception leagues.

5. Earl Bennett, WR, Bears (owned in 38.4 percent of the ESPN leagues): The good news is he has 14 receptions for 251 yards and a TD in his last three games. The bad news is he had become Cutler's favorite target, and now he will be catching passes from Caleb Hanie.

It's too bad, too, because the Bears will play Sunday at Oakland (No. 20 vs. the pass) and have games remaining against the Chiefs (Week 13, No. 14 vs. the pass), Broncos (Week 14, No. 21), Seahawks (Week 15, No. 15) and Packers (Week 16, No. 31).

Cutler's absence means Bennett should be viewed as a No. 4 fantasy receiver, not a No. 3. But you could start him and hope Hanie plays much better than his reputation against a suspect schedule.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns (owned in 15.9 percent of the ESPN leagues); Donald Brown, RB, Colts (6.7 percent); Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens (43.8); Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (25.5); Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (15.7); Greg Little, WR, Browns (10.3); Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals (32.8); Early Doucet, WR, Cardinals (21.2); Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (18.2); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (34.1).

Fantasy football: Will Felix Jones affect DeMarco Murray's value?

2011-11-18T08:00:00.031-05:00

The easy answer to the above question is yes.

The more thought-out, worry-free response is "not as much as you might think."

With running back Felix Jones missing the Cowboys last' four games because of a high ankle sprain, rookie DeMarco Murray has rushed for 601 yards on 75 carries, an average of 8.0 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns. Murray has a combined 10 receptions in his last two contests.

He has been among the season's most pleasant surprises -- a stud running back who was available on the waiver wire in mid-October.

This week, Jones has been limited in practice and could be back in Dallas' lineup Sunday at Washington.

The natural reaction is to worry his presence will significantly cut into Murray's role.

I wouldn't.

Murray has proven he is the featured back Jones has shown he never will be.

Jones is better suited to be a change-of-pace, every-three-series replacement.

In the two games this season in which Jones has had more than 15 carries (Sept. 11 and Oct. 2), he has a combined 31 rushes for 101 yards (3.3 yards per attempt). In his other three appearances, he has 152 yards on 31 carries (4.9).

In 2008, Jones averaged five carries in six games, and had a norm of 8.9 yards per attempt. In 2009, he averaged 8.3 carries in 14 games, and had a norm of 5.9 yards per carry.

Last season, his carries increased to 11.6 per contest, and his yards per attempt plummeted to 4.3.

Clearly, this isn't scientific data, but it seems to make sense that Jones is best used for eight to 10 carries a game.

The Cowboys have said Murray is still the top back, and there should plenty of opportunities for him to add to his ridiculous numbers.

In four of the next five weeks, Dallas faces a defense that ranks 18th or worse against the run -- Sunday at the Redskins (No. 18), Week 13 at the Cardinals (No. 21), Week 14 vs. the Giants (No. 20) and Week 15 at the Buccaneers (No. 29). The four teams have allowed a combined 41 rushing touchdowns in 36 games.

We should continue to consider Murray a top-10 running back until we're proven wrong.

(And be thankful it's Jason Garrett, not Mike Shanahan, who is in charge of running-back distribution.)

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Jets-Broncos game

2011-11-17T15:12:00.003-05:00

I know you're Tebow-ed out. We all are.

Here's the thing, though: As ugly as his passing numbers are, as horrific as his Total QBR is (if you're in the dark, that's ESPN's self-serving version of the passer rating), Tebow produces in fantasy.

Yes, he's thrown for only 526 yards in four starts this season. Overall, he's completing 44.8 percent of his passes.

In fantasy, we care strictly about points, and Tebow helps us quite a bit. He has rushed for 282 yards and a TD in four starts, and he has six TD passes, compared to one interception, in that span.

Yes, it's ugly. But Trent Dilfer, Cris Carter, Tom Jackson and every other ESPN analyst have nothing to do with your fantasy team.

Play Tebow. And don't listen to the nonstop, ESPN-manufactured banter.

START

Jets: RB Shonn Greene, WR Santonio Holmes, defense/special teams, K Nick Folk

Broncos: QB Tim Tebow

Quick slants: Greene should get a significant amount of touches with LaDainian Tomlinson out because of a knee injury. Greene has been disappointing (563 rushing yards, two TDs), but the combination of Tomlinson's absence and Denver's struggles against the run (the Broncos are allowing 129.4 rushing yards in their last five games) are enough to play him tonight. ... Holmes' season stats aren't nearly as impressive as the contract extension he signed, but the former Steeler has three TDs in last five games and caught six passes for 93 yards last week. ... The Jets' defense ranks eighth in total yards allowed (326.8), eighth in passing and 15th against the run. ... Folk has 61 points -- but only 14 field-goal attempts -- in nine games. He should get more chances for field goals tonight. Denver's opponents are 18-for-18 on three-pointers this season (yes, I'm one of the few who misses the NBA).

SIT

Jets: QB Mark Sanchez, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Plaxico Burress, TE Dustin Keller

Broncos: RB Willis McGahee, RB Lance Ball, WR Eric Decker, defense/special teams, K Matt Prater

Quick slants: It's a sit-heavy fantasy contest. Sanchez has decent numbers (2,081 yards, 14 TDs, nine interceptions), but he has two TD passes and three interceptions in his last two games. And there's the fact that if you play in a 10- or 12-team league, there is no way he should be considered a starter. ... Burress has six touchdowns, but three were in one game (Oct. 23 against the Chargers). He has had just three games with more than three receptions and none with 80 yards or more. ... Both of Keller's touchdowns were in the Jets' first two games. The tight end had 17 receptions for 249 yards in his first three games, and has 14 catches for 224 yards and zero TDs in his last six. ... McGahee will be a game-time decision because of a hamstring injury. The Jets aren't great against the run (they are allowing 116 rushing yards per game and have given up nine scores on the ground), but the threat of McGahee, should he be active, exiting early for the second straight week outweighs the possibility he will have his second huge game in three weeks. ... I wouldn't play Ball unless you're desperate at running back, but if McGahee sits, he's a much more intriguing option, mostly because the Broncos figure to run much more than they throw. Ball had 30 carries for 96 yards last week and has only one TD on 61 touches this season. ... Decker has a TD in three straight games and has seven scores on the year. With Tebow as Denver's starting QB, however, Decker has 12 catches in four games, compared to 22 in five games with Kyle Orton starting. Then there's this: Decker could be stranded on Revis Island. A quick rule of thumb: When in doubt, sit a team's best wideout when the Jets are the opponent. ... The Broncos' defense ranks 18th in yards allowed (360.7), 29th in scoring (26 points per game), 20th against the pass and 16th vs. the run. ... Prater has only 46 points in nine games. He has missed five of 14 field-goal attempts.

Fantasy football: Week 11 waiver-wire picks

2011-11-15T20:08:00.000-05:00

A quick disclaimer before our latest edition of the waiver-wire picks: We wrote about quarterback replacement options late Monday night (sadly, Carson Palmer was the best of the bunch).

As usual, we select players who are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com. This week's group is available in more than 68 percent of the ESPN formats.

1. Laurent Robinson, WR, Cowboys (owned in 13.1 percent of the ESPN leagues): He is Dallas' No. 2 wideout with Miles Austin out, and Robinson has responded by catching 13 passes for 208 yard and four touchdowns in his last three contests. He has scored at least one TD in three consecutive games, and the Cowboys' schedule the next three weeks is very favorable. Sunday, Dallas will play at Washington (No. 9 vs. the pass), followed by games against Miami (No. 25 vs. the pass) at home and at Arizona (No. 24). Austin is expected to miss at least another week, and Robinson should be considered a No. 3 fantasy receiver with Austin out and a decent option even when Austin returns.

2. Dexter McCluster, RB, Chiefs (owned in 19.2 percent of the ESPN leagues): Last week against the Broncos, McCluster had eight rushes for 45 yards and six receptions for 48 yards -- his most work since he received 14 touches in Week 3. He is much more valuable in point-per-reception leagues (29 catches on the year), but is still a worthwhile option in standard leagues for owners who are desperate for help at running back. The Chiefs have slowly phased out Thomas Jones, who has had a combined 12 carries the last three weeks, and their schedule the next six weeks features four teams that rank 25th or worse in total defense (No. 32 New England this week, No. 25 Chicago in Week 13, No. 28 Green Bay in Week 15 and No. 26 Oakland in Week 16).

3. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers (owned in 5.4 percent of the ESPN leagues): On the season, Hunter has 335 yards on 59 touches (5.7), and last week he had six carries for 40 yards and a touchdown in a game in which Frank Gore left early with an injury. Gore says his bruised knee is fine and he expects to play Sunday against Arizona. If so, Hunter should be a fantasy reserve. If Gore is out, Hunter is a decent No. 2 back in fantasy. Regardless, he should be on your roster if you are depending on Gore to get you to the postseason.

4. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders (owned in 31.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): Moore had five catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns last Thursday at San Diego, and he had four receptions for 61 yards the week before. As we have learned with Darrius Heyward-Bey and Jacoby Ford, it's difficult to depend on a Raiders receiver from week to week, but maybe Moore (five total TDs) is the best of the bunch. Oakland's schedule the next four weeks certainly should help -- at Minnesota (No. 31 vs. the pass), Chicago (No. 29) at home, at Miami (No. 25) and at Green Bay (No. 31). Moore shouldn't be a starter unless you need help because of bye weeks (this is the last week to worry about that) or injuries.

5. Titus Young, WR, Lions (owned in 2.9 percent of the ESPN leagues): Young has 11 receptions for 140 yards and a TD in his last two games. Last week, he had seven catches for 74 yards, totals that obviously were helped by Matthew Stafford's 63 attempts in a blowout loss at Chicago. Young, depending on your view of Nate Burleson, is Detroit's second- or third-best receiver. Sunday, the Lions will face Carolina (No. 14 vs. the pass), then have favorable matchups against Green Bay (No. 31), New Orleans (No. 18), Minnesota (No. 30) and Oakland (No. 22). Like Moore, he should be a fantasy reserve. Like Moore, many owners will be forced to start him at some point.

Others to watch: Steve Smith, WR, Eagles (owned in 1.8 percent of the ESPN leagues); Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons (0.3); Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers (0.2); Ed Dickson, TE, Ravens (5.7).

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Donald Brown, RB, Colts (11.0 percent); Maurice Morris, RB, Lions (12.5); Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns (14.0); Greg Little, WR, Browns (4.6); David Nelson, WR, Bills (27.5); Early Doucet, WR, Cardinals (18.7); Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (16.0); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (41.4); Jake Ballard, TE, Giants (3.5).

Fantasy football: Quarterback replacement options

2011-11-15T01:35:00.000-05:00

Before we get started, I'll admit replacing Matt Schaub with a Week 11 waiver-wire candidate is similar to benching Arian Foster in favor of Chris Ogbonnaya, but desperate times call for acquisitions of Andy Dalton.

Monday, we learned the Texans' Schaub is out for the season because of a Lisfranc injury, Eagles quarterback Michael Vick has "a couple" broken ribs and Chiefs QB Matt Cassel will need hand surgery and might miss the remainder of the season.

Cassel's injury is minor at quarterback, but it isn't welcome news if you own Dwayne Bowe.

Vick is questionable for this week's game against the Giants, and if you don't have a decent backup, you could stash Vince Young on your bench and make the switch if needed prior to Philly's Sunday night game at New York.

We don't need to tell you the Schaub situation is much more serious, and we don't need to inform you of the importance of drafting two quarterbacks for times such as this.

If, however, your backup is of the Colt McCoy variety, or if you were planning on picking up a fill-in QB for Schaub this week (when Houston is on a bye), here are five names to consider (all are available in more than 74 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com):

1. Carson Palmer, Raiders (owned in 25.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): What, you expected Matthew Stafford to be available? I'm not a fan of Palmer, who has thrown seven interceptions in three games since the Raiders overpaid the Bengals to lure him out of retirement, but he has racked up 631 yards and five TDs (with four picks) in his last two games. Last Thursday at San Diego, he actually looked pretty competent (299 yards, two TDs, one interception).

Of the five players on this list, the Raiders' schedule is the most favorable for a QB. In the next six weeks, Palmer will face the Vikings (No. 30 against the pass), Bears (No. 29), Dolphins (No. 25), Packers (No. 31), Lions (No. 4) and Chiefs (No. 16).

2. Andy Dalton, Bengals (24.7 percent): The rookie has thrown for 1,866 yards and 14 TDs with a passer rating of 82.6. In his last three games, Dalton has seven TDs and four picks, and he's thrown for at least two scores in four of his last five contests. Don't get too excited, though, since Cincy's schedule is about to get much more difficult.

Dalton will face four of the NFL's top six pass defenses in the next four weeks (all rankings are prior to Monday night) -- the Ravens (No. 6), Browns (No. 1), Steelers (No. 3) and Texans (No. 2). If you can make it to Week 15 with him, the slate gets much more favorable, as the Bengals will match up with the Rams (No. 12 vs. the pass) and Cardinals (No. 24) in Weeks 15 and 16.

3. Alex Smith, 49ers (15.1 percent): He has been surprisingly effective (1,709 yards, 11 TDs, three interceptions, 95.8 rating) for the 8-1 49ers, but he's also more "game manager" than fantasy stud. Smith has one TD in four consecutive games, and has accounted for two or more scores in only three of nine contests. In the next six weeks, the 49ers will play the Cardinals (No. 24 vs. the pass), Ravens (No. 6), Rams (No. 12), Cardinals again, Steelers (No. 3) and Seahawks (No. 19).

4. Matt Leinart, Texans (0.0 percent): Be among the first to acquire Matt Leinart! Hurry! Time is running out!

Leinart hasn't thrown a pass in a regular-season game since 2009, and he has six more interceptions (20) than TD passes in his disappointing career. Yes, he has more weapons at his disposal than the first three players on this list, assuming Andre Johnson returns after Houston's bye to play in Week 12. But, to be blunt, we don't trust him, and you probably shouldn't, either.

Houston's schedule from Weeks 12 to 16 is as follows: at Jacksonville (No. 5 vs. the pass), home against Atlanta (No. 23), at Cincinnati (No. 10), Carolina (No. 14) at home and at Indy (No. 21).

5. Christian Ponder, Vikings (10.2 percent): Let's just say we were a little more excited about Ponder -- well, at least excited enough to consider him over Leinart -- before he threw for 190 yards, no TDs and one interception Monday night against Green Bay's generous pass defense. Prior to Monday, the rookie threw for 455 yards, three TDs and two picks in his first two starts.

The schedule in Weeks 11 through 13 is favorable -- Oakland (No. 22 vs. the pass) at home, at Atlanta (No. 23) and Denver (No. 20) at home -- but not enough to justify starting Christian Ponder in the final three weeks of the fantasy regular season.

If that's the predicament you find yourself in, good luck. And remember, crazier things have happened (see Ogbonnaya rushing for 90 yards last week).

We'll be back Tuesday night with Week 11 waiver-wire picks. Until then, you can follow me on Twitter.

Fantasy football: Analyzing the values of Brent Celek and Jake Ballard

2011-11-10T20:24:00.001-05:00

Two names we briefly mentioned but didn't go into detail about in Tuesday's waiver-wire picks were tight ends Brent Celek and Jake Ballard.

Celek is owned in only 15.8 percent of the leagues on ESPN. Ballard's ownership percentage is 32.7.

Both are starting options at tight end, and depending on if you play in a points-per-reception league or not, Celek could be a top-10 player at his position the rest of the season.

Celek, who has had seven receptions in each of the Eagles' last two games, is an ideal choice in PPR leagues. You might remember him as a fantasy stud in 2009, when he had 76 catches for 971 yards and eight TDs in his third season, or a fantasy dud in 2010 (42 receptions, 511 yards, four TDs).

With Michael Vick at quarterback, Celek's value suffered -- until the last three weeks. In that span, he has 18 catches and two TDs.

Should Vick continue to look for one of his best receiving options, Celek is a slam-dunk choice as a starter in PPR leagues. Should Vick go back to ignoring him, as he did in Philly's first five games (when Celek had nine catches and didn't reach the end zone), his current ownership percentage of 15.8 would seem inflated.

I don't believe Ballard, despite being owned in more than double the number of leagues as Celek, is as good of an option as Celek.

The rookie from Ohio State has better numbers this year (23 catches for 395 yards and three TDs), but Celek's stats are far superior the last three weeks. In that span, Ballard has a respectable 13 receptions for 203 yards and a TD.

He's a decent choice as a low-level starting tight end in 12- and 14-team leagues. He's also probably a safer choice than Celek, who is at the mercy of the up-and-down Vick.

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Raiders-Chargers game

2011-11-10T13:38:00.003-05:00

START

Raiders: RB Michael Bush, K Sebastian Janikowski

Chargers: QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Mathews, RB Mike Tolbert, WR Vincent Jackson, TE Antonio Gates, K Nick Novak

Quick slants: With Darren McFadden out with a foot injury, Bush will be the Raiders' featured back. He ran for 96 yards on 19 carries and caught two passes for 33 yards and a touchdown last week. ... Janikowski has made 13 of 14 field-goal attempts, is perfect on 19 PATs and has 58 points in seven games. ... Rivers has been disappointing (11 TD passes and 14 interceptions), but he's thrown for 2,469 yards, including 754 in his last two. He had four TD passes and three interceptions last week against the defensively challenged Packers. ... Mathews is expected to play after missing last week with a groin injury. He has rushed for 509 yards and has 30 catches for 342 yards in seven games. He hasn't scored a touchdown in his last four games. ... Even if Mathews starts tonight, Tolbert should get about 15 touches. He has six TDs on the year and has reached the end zone twice in his last two contests. ... Jackson had seven receptions for 141 yards and three TDs last week. ... In three games since returning from a foot injury, Gates has 17 receptions for 223 yards and two scores. He had eight catches for 96 yards and a TD on Sunday. ... Novak has been prolific in place of the injured Nate Kaeding, making 16 of 17 field goals and all 17 of his PATs. He is averaging 9.3 points per game.

SIT

Raiders: QB Carson Palmer, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Jacoby Ford, defense/special teams

Chargers: WR Malcom Floyd, defense/special teams

Quick slants: Palmer has thrown six interceptions in two games with the Raiders. ... Heyward-Bey has been productive, but he was shut out last week, and the Raiders' passing attack is too unreliable. ... Ford had five receptions for 105 yards and a TD last week, but he had only 11 catches for 114 yards and zero TDs prior to his breakout game. ... The Raiders' defense ranks 27th in yards allowed per game (386.5) and 30th in points allowed (27.0). ... Floyd is expected to sit tonight because of a hip injury. If he's active, I'd keep him on my bench. ... The Chargers' defense ranks seventh in yards allowed (311.6), but is 27th in points (25.5), tied for 20th in sacks (17) and has forced only 11 turnovers.

Fantasy football: Week 10 waiver-wire picks

2011-11-08T22:30:00.000-05:00

I apologize for not writing this piece last week, but real work interfered with the play we so enjoy -- fantasy football.

Without further delay, our waiver-wire selections for Week 10. As usual, keep in mind we select players who are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com:

1. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (owned in 34.1 percent of the ESPN leagues): Emmanuel Sanders missed last week's game following the death of his mother, and he had knee surgery Monday that is expected to sideline him for a few more weeks. Another Steelers wideout, Hines Ward, missed the majority of last week's game with what the team said was a stinger but certainly looked like a concussion. Enter Brown, who is Ben Roethlisberger's No. 2 target and has 540 yards receiving on the year.

Brown has averaged seven receptions in his last three games, and he has racked up 278 yards in that span. He should be considered a No. 3 receiver in fantasy, and possibly a low-end No. 2 if both Ward and Sanders are out.

2. Early Doucet, WR, Cardinals (owned in 18.8 percent of the ESPN leagues): He has two TDs in his last three contests, and had six receptions for 78 yards last week. Considering John Skelton was surprisingly decent for the Cardinals at quarterback last week (222 yards passing, one TD, 38 yards rushing), maybe it would be best for Larry Fitzgerald, Doucet and company if Kevin Kolb takes his time returning from injury. Doucet is better suited to be a No. 4 fantasy receiver, but he can be a No. 3 if you're desperate for help in a given week.

3. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens (owned in 24.4 percent of the ESPN leagues): He certainly had his forgettable moments in the Ravens' win at Pittsburgh on Sunday night, but the rookie more than made up for it by catching the game-winning touchdown pass. Smith had five receptions for 71 yards last week, and he has 13 catches in his last four. Like Doucet, he should be considered a No. 4 fantasy wideout.

4. Chris Ivory, RB, Saints (owned in 0.4 percent of the ESPN leagues): Ivory likely will only help you for one week, as rookie first-round pick Mark Ingram might miss one more game because of a bruised heel. Ivory, in his second contest since being activated from the physically unable to perform list, had 15 carries for 67 yards on Sunday -- seven more attempts than Pierre Thomas, who still gained 66 yards on the ground. Darren Sproles, who had four rushes for 42 yards last week, is much more of a receiver than a runner in the Saints' high-powered offense, which makes Ivory a decent flex play in deeper leagues this week -- but only if Ingram is out.

5. Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns (owned in 15.9 percent of the ESPN leagues): Peyton Hillis and the soap opera in which he is starring will miss another game this week, and Montario Hardesty likely will be out, too. That leaves Ogbonnaya as the Browns' No. 1 rushing option, but don't get your hopes up (if you're a Browns fan, you already know that). Ogbonnaya has a combined 24 carries for 65 yards the last two weeks, and he is averaging 2.9 yards per carry on the season. You should only play him for two reasons: 1. You're extremely thin at running back. 2. You're in a PPR league (Ogbonnaya has a combined six catches the last two games).

-- Two others of note (we'll write about these guys later in the week): Jake Ballard, TE, Giants (27.2 percent); Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (15.4 percent).

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Roy Helu, RB, Redskins (owned in 16.0 percent of the ESPN leagues); Donald Brown, RB, Colts (2.2); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (42.3); Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals (31.7).

Fantasy football: It's now or never for Chris Johnson and Philip Rivers

2011-10-27T21:49:00.000-04:00

The perception -- if you look strictly at Chris Johnson's 2011 statistics -- is he got paid, then checked out.

Johnson -- after holding out of training camp, then signing a four-year, $53 million contract extension -- has 93 carries for 268 yards (2.9 yards per attempt) and one touchdown in six games for the Titans. In point-per-reception leagues, he has gone from awful to mediocre, thanks to 24 catches for 143 yards.

The same player who rushed for 2,006 yards, scored 16 touchdowns and had 50 receptions for 503 yards in 2009 is now being benched or furiously shopped in fantasy leagues.

Johnson had 23 carries for 101 yards against the Browns on Oct. 12. In Tennessee's other five contests, he has 69 rushes for 167 yards (2.4). Aside from the Browns matchup, he hasn't rushed for more than 53 yards in a game.

If you own Johnson, a few words of advice: Don't trade him. Not now, when his value is lower than it's been in his entire four-year career.

Instead, take a look back, and ahead, at the Titans' schedule.

Thus far, Johnson has faced the Jaguars (No. 10 vs. the run), Ravens (No. 3), Broncos (tied for 18th), Browns (No. 20), Steelers (No. 12) and Texans (No. 7).

Granted, a $13.25-million-a-year back should produce against the 2000 Ravens defense.

Ignore for a second the possibility that the combination of Johnson getting his money and missing training camp is a worse combination than Eddy Curry and a guaranteed contract, and consider this:

The Titans' schedule for Weeks 8 through 16 (championship week in fantasy) lines up quite favorably for the player many of us (myself included) drafted second overall.

-- Week 8: vs. Indianapolis (No. 31 vs. the run, 150.9 rushing yards per game allowed, nine rushing TDs allowed)

-- Week 9: vs. Cincinnati (No. 5 vs. the run, 89.5 yards, five TDs)

-- Week 10: at Carolina (No. 29, 133.4 yards, nine TDs)

-- Week 11: at Atlanta (No. 6, 98.4 yards, six TDs)

-- Week 12: vs. Tampa Bay (No. 22, 123.4 yards, seven TDs)

-- Week 13: at Buffalo (No. 30, 135.7 yards, nine TDs)

-- Week 14: vs. New Orleans (No. 15, 115.7 yards, five TDs)

-- Week 15: at Indianapolis (see Week 8)

-- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville (No. 10, 103.4 yards, four TDs)

In his first six games, Johnson faced four of the league's top 12 run defenses. In the next eight weeks, if you count Indy twice, he will play against five of the 11 worst run defenses.

If you're getting desperate, give C.J. at least this week. If he doesn't have a big game against the Colts, you have every right to bench him, trade him or make fun of him on Twitter.

If he does have his first huge game of 2011, you might be best served keeping him and hoping he will have a prolific second half of the season, while feasting on some of the NFL's worst at stopping the run.

Rivers is due, too

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers isn't nearly as high on the Potential Bust of the Year scale as Johnson, but he certainly hasn't been worth a second- or third-round fantasy pick.

Rivers is on pace for throw for 4,573 yards, but he has two more interceptions (nine) than touchdown passes (seven).

In Rivers' defense, tight end Antonio Gates has played in three of the six games, and he was held without a catch in one of them. Last week, with Gates back in the lineup (and catching Rivers' only TD pass), the quarterback was limited to 16-of-32 passing for 179 yards and was intercepted twice.

Remember, that was against the Jets, who have given up only four TD passes all season, compared to 11 interceptions.

Like Johnson, we should expect to see a vastly improved Rivers in the coming weeks.

Monday, San Diego will play at Kansas City, which ranks 17th against the pass. In the four weeks that follow, the Chargers will face the Packers (No. 31 vs. the pass), Raiders (No. 25), Bears (No. 27) and Broncos (No. 19).

If Gates remains healthy, Rivers should resume his 2008-10 role of being among the best in fantasy. Last season, depending on your league's scoring system, Rivers was within a few points of every fantasy player not named Arian Foster.

This season, we would settle for him being more like Matthew Stafford.

Fantasy football: Week 8 waiver-wire picks

2011-10-25T19:27:00.000-04:00

This week's batch of waiver-wire candidates is the weakest of the season, so we will present a few reminders before we unveil the highly anticipated top five.

-- Bengals running back Cedric Benson will serve his one-game suspension this week, leaving Bernard Scott as the featured back. Don't expect Scott to have a huge game Sunday at Seattle, which is allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, but if you need a one-game replacement because of bye weeks, Scott is a decent option as a low-end No. 2 back or upper-level flex play.

-- We wrote about DeMarco Murray extensively on Monday, but he entered this week available in more than 64 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, so he has to be mentioned in this space. Murray is a no-doubt-about-it choice as the top waiver-wire candidate if he's still available in your league.

-- We broke down the value of Seahawks running back Maurice Morris here, and mentioned him again here.

On to this week's waiver-wire selections. A quick reminder: We choose players who are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com (this week's group is available in more than 64 percent of the ESPN formats).

1. Steve Breaston, WR, Chiefs (owned in 35.4 percent of the ESPN leagues): Breaston has 13 receptions for 205 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games, a span in which the Chiefs are 3-0 and averaging 26 points per contest. This week's matchup against the Chargers (No. 3 vs. the pass) isn't great, but Kansas City will face Miami (No. 21 vs. the pass), Denver (No. 19) and New England (No. 32) in Weeks 9, 10 and 11.

2. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos (owned in 2.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): He made his season debut last week at Miami (aka The Game That Gave ESPN Another Reason To Debate Tebow) and had three catches for 27 yards and a TD. Thomas, a first-round pick by the Broncos in 2010, received a team-high 10 targets last week, and the trade of Brandon Lloyd to St. Louis should make Thomas Denver's second-best fantasy option at receiver (behind Eric Decker). I would consider Thomas a No. 4 or 5 receiver in deeper leagues.

3. Delone Carter, RB, Colts (16.9 percent): He is Indy's leading rusher at 259 yards, and last week was the Colts' only bright spot against the Saints (10 carries for 89 yards and a score). With Joseph Addai battling a hamstring injury, Carter -- a rookie fourth-round pick -- has received 36 carries the last three games. Even if Addai is forced to sit this week, Carter likely will share carries with Donald Brown (nine rushes for 47 yards last week), but he seems to have emerged as the Colts' top backfield option. If Addai is out, Carter is a decent flex play Sunday at Tennessee, which ranks 24th against the run.

4. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins (15.3 percent): Mike Shanahan warning! Mike Shanahan warning! As we wrote Monday, who knows what the Redskins will do now that Tim Hightower is out for the season? Ryan Torain would seem to be next in line, but Helu, a rookie fourth-round pick, has value strictly because of the possibility he could earn the featured role at some point this season. Helu has 27 carries for 131 yards this season (4.9), but he has only three rushes for 5 yards in Washington's last two games. I would rather avoid both Torain and Helu until their roles are more clearly defined, but Helu can be a Week 8 desperation play if you base it strictly on the Redskins' matchup (the Bills own the league's third-worst run defense and are giving up 5.1 yards per carry).

5. Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (14.0 percent): Miller has four receptions in each of his last two games, and he has a TD in two of his last three. He caught four passes for 59 yards and a score last week at Arizona, and Sunday the Steelers will play host to the Patriots and their league-worst pass defense (322 yards per game allowed). Miller should be considered a top-10 tight end this week.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (owned in 34.6 percent of the ESPN leagues); Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals (4.0 percent); Maurice Morris, RB, Lions (11.9); Greg Little, WR, Browns (9.0); Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals (33.8); David Nelson, WR, Bills (33.2); Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (6.6); Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals (30.6).

Fantasy football: DeMarco Murray, Tebow and more Week 7 reactions

2011-10-24T19:24:00.000-04:00

According to ESPN.com's ownership percentages, DeMarco Murray is available in more than 64 percent of the fantasy leagues run by the Worldwide Leader.

That number seems way too high, but the stat I'm more curious about is the percentage of owners who left Murray on their bench in Week 7 against the Rams, owners of the league's worst run defense.

Maybe I'm one of the few knuckleheads who did -- in my defense, I started Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Darren McFadden (my top three draft picks). I watched in horror as McFadden was injured early, Johnson had another unproductive game and Murray ran for a Cowboys franchise-record 253 yards on 25 carries -- in a game he didn't even start.

Murray, Dallas' third-round pick in 2011, missed most of training camp because of a hamstring injury and was getting his chance only because of a high ankle sprain suffered by Felix Jones.

We should also keep in mind that the Rams have been AWFUL against the run (183.8 yards allowed per game and 5.5 yards allowed per carry).

Will Murray deserve to be a fantasy starter the rest of the way? We have no way of knowing.

What we do know is if the Cowboys decide to make him their featured back over Jones once the latter is healthy, it will be an easy decision. Take a look at Dallas' schedule in Weeks 8 through 13: at Philadelphia (No. 23 vs. the run), vs. Seattle (No. 10), vs. Buffalo (No. 30), at Washington (No. 17), vs. Miami (No. 20) and at Arizona (No. 13).

We already are certain Murray is much more valuable than Tashard Choice, who received only two carries as Dallas' starter Sunday. The guess here is he will be a better play than Jones the rest of the way, too.

The problem: If the Cowboys don't agree and go to the dreaded backfield-by-committee plan when Jones returns, Murray will be a No. 3 fantasy back at best.

Take your time getting healthy, Felix. Seriously, take a long time.

Tebow time

I understand why Tim Tebow annoys fans. I get that the experts question his accuracy, his mechanics and whatever else the film shows.

What I don't understand is any skepticism that he's a fantasy starter at quarterback -- assuming, of course, he continues to hold the Broncos' job over Kyle Orton.

As we outlined on Oct. 11, Tebow produces when he plays. Sunday at Miami, he was awful for 54 minutes and 37 seconds (4-for-14 for 40 yards, and the Broncos were 0-for-10 on third down), and great from that point forward.

Tebow finished with 161 yards passing, two touchdowns, eight carries for 65 yards and a two-point conversion. He led Denver to 15 points in the last 2:44 of regulation and an overtime win -- albeit over a winless team.

Again, he produces. He's a top-10 or top-12 fantasy quarterback.

The endless debates, ESPN roundtables and everything else does get to be too much. But that doesn't mean he should be on your bench.

A few more quick takes from Week 7:

-- Until Jahvid Best returns from a concussion (and there is some speculation he won't this season), the Lions appear to have decided on a timeshare between Maurice Morris (nine carries for 50 yards and two catches for 13 yards on Sunday) and Keiland Williams (nine carries for 44 yards). Hint: Stay away.

-- Jackie Battle appears to be the Chiefs' choice as their featured back, though Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones did receive a combined 19 carries on Sunday. Battle had 16 carries for 76 yards at Oakland, giving him 35 rushes for 195 yards in his last two contests. The presence of McCluster and Jones makes Battle more of a flex play, but he's still a decent option, depending on the matchup (and this week, it's a good one, since the Chargers rank 21st against the run).

-- Mike Shanahan, Fantasy Tormentor, returned to Tim Hightower as his featured back on Sunday, and the latter was productive until he suffered a torn ACL on Sunday. Next up, we can only assume (which is dangerous when Shanahan is involved), in Washington is Ryan Torain, who had 19 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown on Oct. 2 against the (you guessed it) Rams but has received all of 12 attempts since. Don't discount rookie Roy Helu as an option, though, since the 2011 fourth-round pick has averaged 4.9 yards on 27 carries this season.

On second thought, maybe we should all just avoid Washington running backs.

We'll be back Tuesday with waiver-wire picks for Week 8. Until then, enjoy Jon Gruden tonight.

Fantasy football: Jahvid Best/Maurice Morris analysis

2011-10-20T19:58:00.000-04:00

It all started with a seemingly innocuous note in Mike Freeman's Ten-Point Stance on CBSSports.com.

Freeman's third item in his Wednesday column: "People close to Detroit runner Jahvid Best are expressing concern to him that he needs to strongly consider sitting out the year, I'm told. Best suffered his second concussion of the season this past week. He was forced to miss the final four games of his college career due to concussion-like symptoms."

The Lions wouldn't comment on the report, but have expressed belief that the running back will return soon. Coach Jim Schwartz said Best will be back as soon as he gets clearance from the doctors.

That, combined with Adam Schefter's ESPN report that backup Jerome Harrison's trade to Philadelphia for Ronnie Brown was voided because Eagles doctors discovered a tumor in Harrison's brain, have left Maurice Morris as the primary backfield option for an offense that is averaging 29.7 points per game.

Morris, a 10-year veteran, has nine carries for 20 yards and five receptions for 55 yards on the season. His career high is 628 yards rushing in a season, and he has scored 16 TDs in 135 career games.

With six teams on a bye again this week, many owners could be looking for help at running back. If you're one of them, consider Morris a flex play at best.

He's more valuable in point-per-reception leagues (he had a combined 51 catches in 2009 and '10), but he's still not a top-20 running back even in weeks in which only 26 teams are playing.

Morris did have five TDs in his last six games in 2010, when Best had tailed off considerably after a strong start to his rookie season. In that span, Morris rushed for 295 yards and caught 14 passes while averaging 13.8 touches per contest.

Sunday, the Lions will play host to the Falcons, who rank seventh in the league against the run (97.5 rushing yards per game). Atlanta is in the bottom nine of the league in rushing TDs allowed (six).

In Week 8, Detroit will face Denver, which is No. 23 against the run at 123.4 yards per game. A bye follows in Week 9.

We can only assume Best, at worst, will return by Week 10, but keep in mind that he has had three concussions in two NFL seasons and, as Freeman wrote, had concussion issues in college.

If you own Best, your only choice is to keep him on your bench until he returns. He obviously has little trade value. Morris, meanwhile, entered this week available in more than 99 percent of the ESPN.com leagues.

That total has changed (by how much, we're not sure, since Morris' ESPN ownership percentage was listed as 0.8 Thursday night), but he still can be had in most formats. The possibility he could be the featured back for an extended period on a team with a potent offense automatically gives him value.

Just make sure you place said value at a realistic (read: outside the top 25 at his position) level.

Murray is the man

Since we're on the subject of injured running backs, DeMarco Murray -- one of our waiver-wire picks this week -- should be considered a No. 2 fantasy running back in Week 7.

Felix Jones is out because of a high ankle sprain, and Murray should get more work than backfield mate Tashard Choice.

The reason we're so high on Murray, a rookie who has yet to rush for more than 32 yards in a game this season: Dallas will play host to St. Louis, which owns the league's worst run defense at 163 yards per game and is yielding 4.9 yards per carry.

Choice, who is an effective receiver, is a decent flex play against the Rams.

Fantasy football: Carson Palmer analysis, plus Week 7 waiver-wire picks

2011-10-18T19:22:00.000-04:00

Late Monday night, I wrote about how rare big-name trades were in the NFL.

About 12 hours later, the Bengals and Raiders made that paragraph appear more dated than a sports broadcast in standard definition.

Ladies and gentlemen, Carson Palmer is a Raider -- all logic, and high draft picks, be damned.

Yes, Palmer threw for 3,970 yards and 26 touchdowns last season. He also threw 20 interceptions.

In 36 games since the start of the 2008 season, he has 50 TD passes and 37 picks.

Even in 2007, when he threw for a career-high 4,131 yards, he tossed 20 interceptions.

His only truly elite years were 2005 and '06, when he had a combined 7,871 yards passing, 60 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.

Now he will be force-fed a Raiders offense that is run-first, led by the electric Darren McFadden (610 yards rushing, 5.5 yards per carry, four TDs on the ground).

Oakland has rushed for 960 yards and 10 TDs in six games. The Raiders are averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

It is no wonder, then, that Jason Campbell, prior to his injury Sunday against the Browns, had thrown for a pedestrian 1,170 yards and six TDs.

Palmer isn't going to be asked to save the Raiders. He will be asked not to screw them up -- a feat of which Oakland obviously believed Kyle Boller was more than capable.

In Oakland, Palmer will have Darrius Heyward-Bey, once maligned as another terrible Al Davis draft pick, as his top target. Heyward-Bey has 17 receptions for 296 yards and one TD in his last three games.

After that, it's Denarius Moore (who had five catches for 146 yards and a TD against Buffalo, but has eight receptions for 62 yards and a score in his other four games), tight end Kevin Boss and the running backs.

All of which is a long way of saying don't expect Palmer to provide a big boost to your fantasy team.

He should be considered a high-end backup at best, and a decent bye-week fill-in depending on the matchup.

The upside: You won't have to give up a first- and second-round pick to acquire him on the waiver wire.

While we're on the subject, here are five more waiver-wire candidates this week. All are available in more than two-thirds on the leagues on ESPN.com.

1. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (owned in 3.3 percent of the ESPN leagues): Felix Jones will miss at least this week, and likely more, with a high ankle sprain, leaving Murray and Tashard Choice to share the carries. Of the two, Murray should receive the most work. The rookie, a third-round pick from Oklahoma, had 10 carries for 32 yards and one catch for 7 yards last week. Choice, meanwhile, had five rushes for 14 yards and three catches for 16 yards. He is the better receiver of the two.

Murray is a quality play this week against the Rams, who own the league's worst run defense at 163 yards per game. The latter number is so bad Choice should be a flex candidate in deeper leagues if you need bye-week help.

2. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals (owned in 5.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): You'll have to wait a week, since Cincinnati is on a bye, but Scott should be the Bengals' featured back in Week 8 against Seattle. Cedric Benson had his three-game suspension reduced to one Tuesday and likely will serve it next week. Scott should get most of the work against Seattle, which, surprisingly, ranks seventh against the run (97.8 yards per game). The Seahawks -- attention owners of Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty -- are allowing a league-low 3.1 yards per carry.

3. Greg Little, WR, Browns (owned in 8.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): He's clearly the Browns' No. 1 receiver (insert your joke, or insult, here), and the rookie has six receptions in each of his last two games. He's not going to score seven or eight TDs (heck, he has yet to reach the end zone once), but in point-per-reception formats, Little could be worth 12 to 15 points per game because of the amount of targets he should receive.

4. Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals (owned in 36.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): OK, so he might not be the best role model (allegedly), or the smartest guy around. But he does have two 100-yard games in his last five, including a six-catch, 101-yard performance last week. Who needs Palmer when you have Andy Dalton? (Remember, the franchise formerly known as the Bungles has this week off.)

5. Ronnie Brown, RB, Lions (owned in 15.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): I'll be blunt: Brown is of value only if Jahvid Best is forced to sit because of concussion-like symptoms. If that's the case, Brown should share the load with Maurice Morris on Sunday against the Falcons. Brown had a disappointing 2010 and had 13 carries for 38 yards (a 2.9 average) with the Eagles this season. At best, he's a flex play for running back-needy owners if Best is inactive this week.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos (owned in 40.6 percent of the ESPN leagues); Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (12.2 percent); David Nelson, WR, Bills (45.9 percent); Jackie Battle, RB, Chiefs (26.3 percent); Donald Brown, Colts (1.6 percent).

Fantasy football: Brandon Lloyd trade analysis

2011-10-18T01:20:00.000-04:00

The Brandon Lloyd trade is rare in two ways.

1. It's an in-season NFL deal involving a decent name. (For some reason, marquee NFL trades are more rare than positive news from the NBA labor talks.)

2. The trade could be a good thing for all fantasy players involved.

And we all know No. 2 is most important.

Lloyd, who was dealt by the Broncos to the Rams on Monday, had 77 receptions for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. The totals obliterated his previous career bests of 48 catches, 733 yards and six TDs.

This season, he has 19 catches for 283 yards and zero TDs in four games, and the rise of Tim Tebow to starting quarterback wasn't going to help Lloyd's fantasy value. In the lone game in which Tebow played a significant role this season, Lloyd had one reception for 20 yards after catching 18 passes in his first three games of 2011.

Now he's in St. Louis, where he should immediately become the No. 1 receiver.

The only problem: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford has a high ankle sprain. If he is forced to miss time, St. Louis will turn to 34-year-old A.J. Feeley, whose five passing attempts this season are his first since 2007.

If you own Lloyd, the hope should be Bradford misses no more than a game, and the pair get quickly acclimated from that point forward.

The Rams have only two other wideouts of note, and neither should be considered No. 3 receivers in fantasy.

Second-year receiver Danario Alexander has 14 catches for 287 yards and a TD in four games, and third-year wideout Brandon Gibson has 17 receptions for 214 yards and a score in five contests. Alexander is the better of the two, but is best suited to be a fantasy reserve.

In Denver, meanwhile, Eric Decker could be Tebow's No. 1 target. The second-year receiver has 22 receptions for 266 yards and four TDs in five games.

Another name to remember is second-year receiver Demaryius Thomas, who is expected to make his season debut Sunday at Miami.

Thomas was Denver's first-round pick, No. 22 overall, in 2010, but started this season on the sideline because of a torn Achilles.

With Eddie Royal out of the lineup since Week 2 because of a groin injury, coupled with the fact he's been a disappointment since his 91-catch rookie season of 2008, Thomas should be a starter in the next two or three weeks.

The wild card in all this, of course, is Tebow, whose value we discussed recently.

Will he prove to be a decent NFL quarterback? Will he run first and pass second at the first sign of trouble?

That remains to be seen.

For Lloyd, a chance of scenery is a good thing.

For Decker and Thomas, the 2010 Pro Bowl selection's absence might be even better.

Fantasy football: LeGarrette Blount analysis, plus start, sit and drop advice

2011-10-13T19:39:00.002-04:00

In case you weren't excited about Jackie Battle, we now give you Earnest Graham in the In-Season Rush to Acquire a Starting Running Back Sweepstakes.

Thursday, a report circulated by Pro Football Talk that credited WQYK-AM 1010 in Tampa stated Buccaneers running back LeGarrette Blount will miss "several weeks" with a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his knee.

If accurate, that leaves Graham as the best of the Bucs' remaining running backs, along with an intriguing choice in point-per-reception formats.

Blount has been somewhat disappointing in his second season. He has rushed for 328 yards and three touchdowns in five games. Since he isn't a threat to catch passes (four for 58 yards thus far), the fact he has rushed for 71 yards or fewer in three of five contests is even more damaging.

Graham, meanwhile, has 23 receptions and 41 touches in five games. The 31-year-old had a breakout 2007 (898 yards rushing, 10 TDs, 49 receptions for 324 yards), but he has compiled 812 yards and five TDs on the ground in 40 games since.

He's a good receiver, and Sunday's matchup against the Saints is a decent one. New Orleans ranks 15th against the run, which is deceiving because the Saints' opponents usually take to the air, since they are often trailing. New Orleans is allowing 5.2 yards per carry and has given up four rushing TDs.

The Bucs' opponents in Week 7, the Bears, rank 28th against the run and have allowed 5.7 yards per carry.

Consider Graham a flex play in PPR formats, and a fringe No. 2 running back during weeks such as this, when six teams are on a bye.

A few more notes as we get ready for the weekend:

Start 'em

-- Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: In five games, the rookie has thrown for 1,610 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions. He has rushed for 160 yards and five scores. Can he continue this pace? Probably not. But I wouldn't sit him against Atlanta, which has the No. 28 pass defense (294.2 yards per game).

-- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions: He had only five receptions for 64 yards and zero TDs in his first two games, but he's been a top-10 tight end since. In the last three weeks, Pettigrew has 21 catches for 215 yards and a TD. Sunday, Detroit will play host to San Francisco, which ranks No. 23 vs. the pass, but does have one more interception than TD tosses allowed (eight to seven).

PPR flex play of the week

Saints running back Darren Sproles has had at least five catches in each game this season, and he's received an average of 14 touches the last two contests. In that span, Sproles has 18 carries for 126 yards (7.0 average) and 10 receptions for 96 yards.

If Sproles continues to get in the neighborhood of 15 touches, he should produce more than 100 total yards. Combine that with his five catches per game, and any time he reaches the end zone would make a productive PPR play an excellent one.

An added bonus: Sunday's opponents, the Bucs, rank 23rd vs. the run and 20th against the pass.

Sit 'em

-- Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: I wouldn't be surprised if Clark is being dropped in some leagues, since Curtis Painter has targeted the tight end a combined nine times in two games. Clark has six receptions for 65 yards and zero TDs in Indy's last three games. On the season, he has 14 catches for 136 yards and a score. And to think I not too long ago thought Clark was the No. 2 tight end in fantasy.

-- Josh Freeman, QB, and Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers: We believed Freeman was a fringe top-10 QB heading into the season, and he's been anything but. Freeman -- who threw for 3,451 yards, 25 TDs and six picks, and rushed for 364 yards in 2010, his second NFL season -- has one TD and four interceptions in his last three games. Overall, he has three TDs and six picks.

His struggles have coincided with the decline of Williams, who had 65 receptions for 964 yards and 11 TDs as a rookie in 2010. This year, he has 19 catches for 183 yards and one TD.

Sunday, the Bucs will face a Saints defense that has given up 10 TDs and has only three picks, and with Blount out, Freeman might be throwing quite a bit. Regardless, both players are difficult to keep in your lineup unless bye-week blues have left you desperate.

Give him another week

Jets tight end Dustin Keller, after catching 17 passes for 249 yards and two TDs in his first three games, has three catches for 19 yards in his last two contests. If you're growing impatient, you're not alone, especially since you might not have drafted Keller as a starter and might have two decent tight ends on your roster.

Monday night, the Jets will play host to Miami, which has the league's second-worst pass defense. The Dolphins are allowing 307 passing yards per game and have given up nine TD tosses, compared to two picks, in four contests.

Play Keller this week, and if he lets you down, keep him on your bench until he proves us wrong again.

Drop 'em

If you need the roster space, C.J. Spiller, LaDainian Tomlinson and Pierre Thomas are worthy candidates of joining the waiver wire.

For more updates and analysis, follow me on Twitter.

Fantasy football: Week 6 waiver-wire picks

2011-10-11T19:25:00.000-04:00

Ladies and gentlemen, it's Tebow time.

Either my quarterbacks in the News-Herald fantasy league have been atrocious or I'm a little too excited to acquire a quarterback whose accuracy has been panned by the experts and is more of a bull in the backfield than a precision passer.

OK, it's the former, thanks to my mistaken belief that I could wait on a QB in the draft and start Josh Freeman.

Because of that, I'll be among the many this week who will put a bid on Tim Tebow, who was named the Broncos' starting quarterback on Tuesday.

So what should we expect? We have that and more in this week's waiver-wire picks.

As always, we select players who are available in a majority of the leagues on ESPN.com. This week's group can be had in more than 90 percent of the ESPN formats.

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos (owned in 2.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): He completed only 4 of 10 passes for 79 yards in relief of Kyle Orton on Sunday, and ESPN's Todd McShay will tell you he'll never be a productive NFL quarterback.

From a fantasy perspective, however, here's what we know: Tebow played extensively in Denver's last three games in 2010. In those contests, he threw for 651 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. He also rushed 31 times for 199 yards and three TDs (one score in each game).

If you play in a league in which 100 rushing yards is worth 10 points, 100 passing yards is worth four, all touchdowns are six and interceptions are minus-2, Tebow averaged about 27 points per game.

In two quarters last week, he threw for a score and rushed for 38 yards and a TD.

The Broncos are off this week, so you will have to be more patient than normal, but the numbers say this: Whether it's pretty or not, Tebow will produce.

2. Jackie Battle, RB, Chiefs (owned in 0.8 percent of the ESPN leagues): We discussed Battle on Sunday night in this space. Like Tebow, his team is on a bye this week. Unlike Tebow, he will be sharing the load with Thomas Jones and maybe Dexter McCluster. At best, Battle should be considered a flex play in a 10- or 12-team league.

3. Alex Smith, QB, 49ers (owned in 9.2 percent of the ESPN leagues): Either Jim Harbaugh is a genius or Smith is finally getting it. Maybe both. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2005 NFL draft had been considered a bust until Harbaugh came aboard, and Smith has thrown for 965 yards, seven touchdowns and one pick in the 49ers' 4-1 start. He has a passer rating of 104.1, and has 461 yards, five TDs and no interceptions in his last two games.

His matchup this week (the 49ers play at Detroit) isn't favorable. The Lions have one more interception (seven) than TD passes allowed (six) this season, but if you are desperate for a QB, Smith is an upper-end No. 2 passer and could be a spot starter in fantasy.

4. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (owned in 0.8 percent of the ESPN formats): The undrafted rookie has been Seattle's most productive receiver (20 catches for 330 yards and two TDs). In his last two games, Baldwin has 13 receptions for 220 yards and one TD. With Mike Williams out because of a concussion Sunday, Baldwin excelled. When healthy, Williams (eight catches for 79 yards and one TD in four games) shouldn't be much of a threat to Baldwin's production. Seattle is off this week, but Baldwin could be a decent No. 3 or 4 fantasy receiver from Week 7 on.

5. Donald Brown, RB, Colts (owned in 1.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): To be blunt, Brown only has value if Joseph Addai sits because of an injured hamstring. Addai had an MRI on Monday, and the Colts have yet to reveal the results. If Addai is out this week at Cincinnati, Brown likely would share carries with rookie Delone Carter. The latter is a rookie who has received much more work than Brown, a 2009 first-round pick who has been a disappointment. But Carter is averaging only 3.0 yards on 41 carries this season, and Brown had eight attempts for 38 yards last week. Neither Carter nor Brown will solve any backfield problems you might have, but Brown could at least be a decent one-week fill-in if Addai is too injured to play.

6. Benjamin Watson, TE, Browns (owned in 9.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): The Browns have said they want to get Evan Moore more involved, but Watson continues to be the Browns' best tight end. He has 11 receptions for 112 yards and a TD in his last two games, and last season he set career highs in catches (68) and yards (763). He's best a bye-week fill-in or an upper-level backup, but Watson can be a spot starter at tight end in deep leagues.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Victor Cruz, WR, Giants (owned in 38.3 percent of the ESPN leagues); Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (6.4 percent); Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders (34.7 percent); Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals (38.5 percent).

Fantasy football: Rapid reaction, Week 5

2011-10-09T20:23:00.001-04:00

There might be another running back who is every owner's first pick on the waiver wire Tuesday morning.

Chiefs running back Jackie Battle had 19 carries for 119 yards and two receptions for 21 yards Sunday against the Colts. Considering teammates Thomas Jones (10 attempts for 55 yards) and Dexter McCluster (four carries, 8 yards) combined for 63 yards against Indy, Battle certainly will merit consideration this week.

Before you get too excited, though, consider this: Prior to Sunday, he had 51 rushes for 155 yards (3.0 per carry) in his career.

He's no Jamaal Charles, but he's definitely more interesting than Jones and McCluster at this point. And there aren't many opportunities to acquire a featured back as a free agent in Week 6.

Let's get to a few more quick takes from another busy Sunday in fantasy:

-- If you're a LeSean McCoy owner, you can't complain about the Eagles running back's production. McCoy has scored seven TDs, rushed for 443 yards and caught 19 passes. But you can grumble about the fact he has had a combined 20 rushing attempts the last two weeks. Leave it to Andy Reid to under-use a running back who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. McCoy had 57 rushes and 66 touches in the Eagles' first three games.

-- We'll keep it on the ground and throw out the possibility that Buffalo's Fred Jackson might be the most surprising backfield stud of 2011. In five games, Jackson has 90 carries for 480 yards (5.3 average) and five TDs, and he has caught 18 passes for 232 yards. That's a norm of 6.6 yards per touch. Quick, would you rather have Fred Jackson or Chris Johnson right now?

-- Now that we've reached the five-game mark, the Titans' Johnson officially has me worried. I drafted him second overall in the News-Herald league, thinking he was a no-brainer there once his holdout ended, and he has 250 yards rushing and an average of 3.0 yards per attempt. Johnson has rushed for more than 53 yards once all year, and Sunday's garbage-time touchdown against the Steelers was his first score of the year. I'm not benching him yet, but I am kicking myself for not taking Arian Foster.

-- Foster has rewarded the owners who took a risk and drafted him in the top five. His hamstring injury delayed his rise to his 2010 level, but the Texans back has 223 yards rushing, one TD and eight receptions for 127 yards in his last two games. Houston clearly isn't worried about his health. Foster has averaged 30 touches in the two contests.

-- Speaking of bad hamstrings, the Steelers' Rashard Mendenhall might have more of an urgency to get back in the lineup after watching Jonathan Dwyer (11 carries for 107 yards, one catch for 6 yards) and Isaac Redman (15 carries for 49 yards, three receptions for 12 yards) combine for 174 total yards Sunday against a Titans defense that entered the game allowing 87.8 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per attempt. If Mendenhall is out another week, Redman is the better play of the two.

-- No worries after all, Frank Gore fans. The 49ers back was limited to 148 yards on 59 carries (2.5) in his first three games. In two games since, Gore has 35 carries for 252 yards (7.2) and two TDs, along with four receptions for 30 yards.

-- So much for the Stevan Ridley hype in New England. The rookie had seven rushes for 13 yards Sunday, one week after he got our attention with a breakout 10-carry, 97-yard, one-TD performance against the Raiders. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, meanwhile, had a whopping 27 carries for 136 yards and two TDs for New England in its win over the Jets. No featured-back debate here -- at least for now.

-- Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars' debacle of a quarterback situation is crushing Maurice Jones-Drew's value. Now that Jones-Drew doesn't catch many passes (he has seven receptions for 67 yards in five games), we need him to rack up yards and TDs on the ground. Jones-Drew was productive Sunday, but Jacksonville's ineptitude has resulted in him receiving a combined 30 rushing attempts the last two weeks.

-- It must be the year of the quarterback. Tennessee's Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 1,414 yards and nine TDs in five games. He's on pace for 4,525 yards for a team that has lost top wideout Kenny Britt and has Chris Johnson being outperformed by the likes of Willis McGahee.

-- If it is the year of the QB, it's puzzling that San Diego's Philip Rivers has thrown one more interception (seven) than he has TD passes (six) this season. Rivers is averaging 307 yards passing per game, but the absence of Antonio Gates clearly is affecting him in the red zone and beyond.

-- Check out the Saints' box score from their win over Carolina on Sunday. That spread-the-wealth mentality is why it's so difficult to trust any New Orleans wide receiver. But it is easy to believe tight end Jimmy Graham is among the league's best. Graham has three consecutive 100-yard games.

-- The last two weeks have proven that it's advantage, Victor Cruz, when it comes to deciding the second-best fantasy option among Giants receivers. The rookie has a combined 14 receptions for 259 yards and a TD in his last two games. Mario Manningham has six catches for 66 yards and zero scores in that span.

-- Would you believe me if I told you Darrius Heyward-Bey has 13 receptions for 214 yards and a TD in the Raiders' last two games? I wouldn't start the much-maligned Al Davis draft pick, but he has at least caught my eye.

That's it for tonight. We'll we back Tuesday with waiver-wire picks for Week 6.

Until then, you can follow me on Twitter.

Fantasy football: Week 5 waiver-wire picks

2011-10-04T19:32:00.000-04:00

Mike Shanahan just couldn't leave us alone.

We were foolish enough to think the Redskins had their featured back in Tim Hightower, who rushed for 209 yards, caught nine passes for 74 yards and scored two touchdowns in Washington's first three games.

Hightower reportedly injured his shoulder early in Week 4, and the result left many of us cringing.

Yes, the Redskins might have a new featured back. The Shanahan Fantasy Curse is going strong, and so are our waiver-wire picks after a one-week absence in which real life intervened (hint: Moving is less fun than watching "Two and a Half Men" without Charlie Sheen).

As always, we're looking for players who are available in a majority of the leagues on ESPN.com. We made an exception for the first player on this list, since he's available in more than 42 percent of the ESPN leagues, and chances to get a featured back are rare on the waiver wire (even if it's a Shanahan back).

1. Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins (owned in 57.6 percent of the ESPN.com leagues): Torain rushed for 135 yards on 19 carries Sunday at St. Louis. It "was like he was possessed," Shanahan said.

You'll have to wait a week if you make this move, since Washington is off this week. By Week 6, Hightower could be healthy and "The Guy," whatever that means in a Shanahan offense.

Regardless, Torain was effective last season, despite receiving 10 or more carries in only eight games. He rushed for 742 yards, averaged 4.5 yards per carry and caught 18 passes.

Long term, he should be Washington's best option. Hopefully, his coach agrees.

2. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots (3.6 percent): The rookie third-round pick had 10 carries for 97 yards and a TD on Sunday at Oakland. In four games, he has 18 rushes for 148 yards (8.2 yards per attempt).

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is clearly the Patriots' top option for the time being in the backfield, but Bill Belichick likes to torment us when it comes to running backs almost as much as Shanahan.

Green-Ellis has rushed for 197 yards and three touchdowns. His backup, Danny Woodhead, has been banged up. He had 14 carries in Week 1, but has 12 since.

Ridley could overtake Green-Ellis at some point. The more likely scenario is he will share carries, with Green-Ellis dominating the touches at the goal line.

3. Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers (2.3 percent): Rashard Mendenhall has a hamstring injury that could limit him this week, and his numbers -- thanks in large part to the Steelers' much-maligned offense line -- are less than mediocre (173 yards, 3.0 yards per attempt, two TDs).

Redman has 107 yards on 22 carries (4.9), and he could receive a much greater workload this week because of injuries to Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore.

If you need a one-week fill-in, Redman might get the most touches of any back on this list in Week 5. But keep in mind Sunday's opponent, the Titans, are allowing only 3.2 yards per carry and rank eighth against the run.

4. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals (5.9 percent): Scott's value depends entirely on Cedric Benson's looming three-game suspension. The latter has appealed Roger Goodell's verdict, but since the commissioner often only has to answer to himself, we should expect Benson to miss at least two games.

If the hammer comes down this week, Scott's value rises. Scott has only 13 rushing attempts and two receptions this season, thanks to a surprisingly productive start by Benson (348 yards, 4.5 yards per carry).

Scott has averaged 4.4 yards per carry in his career, and he could be a decent flex option if Benson is forced to miss Sunday's game at Jacksonville (No. 16 vs. the run).

5. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants (19.3 percent): The rookie has nine receptions for 208 yards and two TDs in his last two games. Sunday, he joined Hakeem Nicks in most of the Giants' two-receiver sets in the second half, reportedly because Eli Manning wasn't happy with Mario Manningham's route-running.

Manningham missed the Giants' game Sept. 26 because of a concussion, and he had one catch for 10 yards against Arizona.

Sunday, the Giants play host to the Seahawks, who are allowing more than 24 points per game. With six teams on a bye, Cruz has to be considered a No. 3 fantasy receiver in Week 5.

Three more possible free agents of note:

-- Jacoby Jones, WR, Texans (8.5 percent): With Andre Johnson possibly being sidelined this week by a hamstring injury, Matt Schaub has to throw to someone other than Owen Daniels and Arian Foster, right? Why not Jones, who had 51 receptions in 2010? In the final two games of 2010, both contests in which Johnson sat, Jones had 10 receptions for 185 yards.

-- Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (6.2 percent): He has 17 receptions for 238 yards and one TD, and he's had at least 54 yards in each of Washington's first four games. Gaffney has 13 receptions in his last three contests, and he had 65 catches for 875 yards in 2010. The negative: If you play in a league in which touchdowns dominate the scoring, he's not an effective option. Gaffney has seven TDs in 52 games since 2008. A reminder: The Redskins are off this week.

-- Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns (19.6 percent): As we wrote Sunday night, Hardesty has a combined 29 touches in his last two games, as the Peyton Hillis Mystery continues to confound. The Browns are off this week, and Hillis eventually should get a lot more work, but Hardesty is an interesting option if you have the luxury of stashing him on your bench for later in the season.

Fantasy football: Should Peyton Hillis be benched?

2011-10-02T20:05:00.001-04:00

It hasn't been a good eight days for Peyton Hillis.

Last Sunday, he missed the Browns' win over the Dolphins because of strep throat.

This week, there were rumors -- which fireballed when ESPN's Adam Schefter jumped into the fray -- that Hillis' decision not to play last week was because of his unhappiness with his contract, which pays him $600,000 this season.

Hillis' tumultuous week was capped by a Sunday in which he had a season-low 15 touches -- only three more than backfield mate Montario Hardesty -- in the Browns' loss to the Titans.

Whether or not you believe the Browns should reward Hillis for his huge 2010 season by extending his contract is fodder for another blog. Here, we're going to concentrate on Hillis' fantasy value, which is at its lowest since he was a blocking back in Denver.

Hillis rushed for 46 yards on 10 carries and caught five passes for 23 yards against Tennessee. Hardesty, meanwhile, had seven carries for 22 yards and five receptions (plus four drops) for 49 yards.

In his last two games, the first of which was without Hillis, Hardesty has 21 rushes for 89 yards and eight receptions for 68 yards.

He will continue to cut into Hillis' workload, which might not be a terrible thing, considering how Hillis tailed off at the end of 2010.

Hillis should have no reason to be worn down this season, and you would figure the Browns would prefer to have his touches closer to the mid-20s (he had an average of 27 in Weeks 1 and 2) than the mid-teens.

The Browns are off in Week 5, so you can sit on this decision for a week.

In Week 6, they play at Oakland, which was ranked 26th against the run entering Sunday, then allowed 30 carries for 183 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to the pass-happy Patriots.

Hillis has to be a fantasy starter against Oakland, and the Browns' schedule in Weeks 7 to 12 is about as imposing as Colt McCoy trying to make a tackle after an interception. Cleveland will play host to Seattle in Week 7, followed by games at San Francisco, at Houston, St. Louis and Jacksonville at home, and at Cincinnati.

Give Hillis another chance, but in standard scoring leagues, his value is even more tenuous than in point-per-reception formats. At the very least, you can count on him to catch about four passes per week.

Since that's the best you can say about the Browns' bruising back at this point, it's not a stretch to think Hillis might be no better than a flex play in Weeks 13, 14 and 16 -- when the Browns play the Ravens twice and the Steelers once.

Fantasy football: Is Eric Decker the real deal?

2011-09-22T19:25:00.000-04:00

Last week, Eric Decker became the first Broncos wide receiver to score twice and tally 100 yards in his first career start.

He was a popular choice this week on the waiver wire (he led our weekly analysis on Tuesday), but he still hasn't seemed to catch on as a no-doubt-about-it starting option in fantasy.

Yahoo! has Decker ranked 37th at wide receiver this week, and ESPN has him 34th. Part of the reason is Sunday's matchup at Tennessee, which is ranked third against the pass and has one more interception than touchdown passes allowed (two to one).

Regardless, the Broncos can rack up passing yards under Kyle Orton, who has thrown for 7,954 yards in 31 games since 2009, an average of 257 per contest.

With Eddie Royal out 2 to 4 weeks because of a groin injury and No. 1 receiver Brandon Lloyd also nursing a groin ailment, Decker might be Denver's best option in the passing game.

Lloyd didn't play last week, but he is expected to play Sunday. Decker had five receptions for 113 yards and a pair of scores in Denver's win over Cincinnati, and he had three receptions for 53 yards in Week 1.

He didn't make much of an impact as a rookie in 2010 (six receptions), but he was still recovering from a Lisfranc foot injury he suffered against Ohio State in October 2009. The injury caused him to miss the rest of his senior season and resulted in his draft stock slipping from a fringe first-rounder to the third round (No. 87 overall) in 2010.

Now, he says he's 100 percent.

Maybe I'm more optimistic than most, but I see Decker as a No. 3 receiver in fantasy, especially in point-per-catch formats.

He's big (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) and he's fast (a 90-yard punt return for a TD in Week 1).

Plus, he has our old favorite, Orton, throwing him the rock.

What could go wrong?

Fantasy football: Week 3 waiver-wire picks

2011-09-20T20:26:00.000-04:00

Last week, we gave you Devery Henderson, Dustin Keller, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Aaron Hernandez and Ben Tate in this space.

If you only listened to us on Cadillac Williams, shame on you. OK, shame on us for thinking one game might mean Williams could somehow turn back the clock.

Anyway, we're back with more waiver-wire selections this week. Note that we are looking for players who are available in the majority of the leagues on ESPN.com.

Also note that we discussed the fantasy values of Dexter McCluster, Thomas Jones and other possible free-agent running backs on Monday morning.

1. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos (owned in 6.7 percent of the ESPN.com leagues): With Brandon Lloyd out because of a groin injury and Eddie Royal sidelined during the game because of a similar ailment, Decker had his best game as a pro Sunday -- five receptions for 113 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bengals. He has eight catches for 166 yards in two games, and Royal is expected to miss 2 to 4 weeks. Lloyd should return this week, but that doesn't diminish Decker's standing as a quality No. 3 receiver option in 12-team leagues.

2. David Nelson, WR, Bills (1.4 percent): Nelson had 31 receptions for 353 yards and three TDs as an undrafted rookie last season. All three of his scores were in his last four games. This season, he has 14 receptions for 149 yards and a TD in two games, including a huge Week 2 against the Raiders (10 catches for 83 yards and a score). He's a decent third receiver in 12-team point-per-reception leagues.

3. Fred Davis, TE, Redskins (16.9 percent): Chris Cooley is beat up, as evidenced by his two catches for 21 yards in two games (he was shut out last week). Enter Davis, who has 11 receptions for 191 yards and a TD in two contests. In 2009, he seemed to be Washington's future No. 1 option at tight end (48 receptions, six TDs), but he was disappointing last year. This season, he has surpassed Cooley and should be considered a starting tight end in 12-team leagues.

Five other possible free agents of note:

-- Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins (16.6 percent): He's thrown for at least 291 yards and two TDs each week. Do we think it will continue? No. Can you do better at QB? Absolutely. But Grossman does merit consideration in deep leagues, and he's a no-doubt-about-it starter in leagues in which you play two QBs.

-- Nate Washington, WR, Titans (3.3 percent): He has had six catches or more in each of his first two games, capped by a seven-reception, 99-yard performance against the Ravens. Washington had six TDs in both 2009 and '10, but he never had more than 47 receptions or 687 yards. With Matt Hasselbeck under center, he can at least be a part-time starter in fantasy.

-- Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (5.6 percent): Gaffney averaged 59.5 catches per season in 2009 and '10 with the Broncos, but he scored two TDs each year. With Big Rex in command, Gaffney had five receptions for 62 yards last week against the Cardinals. He isn't a fantasy starter unless you're desperate, but he is roster-worthy.

-- Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams (31.3 percent): See Gaffney, Jabar. Sims-Walker had six catches for 92 yards Monday night, but he had one reception for 5 yards in St. Louis' opener. Sam Bradford spreads the receptions between Sims-Walker, Brandon Gibson (seven catches for 102 yards) and Danario Alexander (three receptions for 122 yards and a TD on Monday), so consider Sims-Walker a fantasy reserve.

-- Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders (27.5 percent): We're not fans of Campbell, but he has accounted for five TDs (three passing, two rushing) in two weeks. Campbell's season stats are obviously skewed by his huge game at Buffalo on Sunday. Also keep in mind Campbell threw for only 13 TDs last season. He's no better than a mid-level fantasy backup.

Fantasy football: Jamaal Charles replacement options

2011-09-19T00:46:00.000-04:00

Speak with a Jamaal Charles owner and one of the first things he or she will say to you will have something to do with getting more opportunities.

The electric Chiefs running back rushed for 1,467 yards in 2010, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He caught 45 passes for 468 yards, giving him an incredible norm of 7.0 yards per touch. Even more ridiculous: Charles had a combined 1,935 rushing and receiving yards, despite getting 17.2 touches per game.

This season, Charles -- a consensus top-five overall choice in fantasy -- didn't make it past Week 2. Sunday, on his second carry of the game, he suffered what ESPN reported shortly after the game was a torn ACL in his left knee.

An MRI later Monday is expected to confirm the report, which would leave many owners scrambling to replace their top running back.

If you're looking to the waiver wire for help this week, there probably won't be much.

The best options, in fact, might be on Charles' team.

Backup Thomas Jones entered the weekend owned in 61.5 percent of the leagues on ESPN. Dexter McCluster, a second-round pick by Kansas City in 2010, was owned in only 7.0 percent of the ESPN formats.

Jones rushed for 896 yards and six touchdowns last season. It marked the first time in six seasons in which he didn't rush for at least 1,119 yards.

In 2008 and '09, Jones gained a combined 2,714 yards on the ground and scored 29 combined rushing and receiving TDs.

At 33, his best days are behind him, but he can still be a useful player in non-point-per-reception leagues.

In PPR leagues, McCluster is a better option than Jones, who had an average of 12 catches per year in 2009 and '10.

McCluster is way too small (5-foot-8, 170 pounds) to get 20-plus carries, but he is explosive (he had eight carries for 51 yards Sunday) and he can get a handful of catches per game (he has nine receptions thus far in 2011).

Neither player should be considered anything more than a fringe No. 3 running back in a 12-team league, but if you've lost Charles, you're probably desperate enough to give one a chance.

Two other long-shot options at running back are a pair of rookies -- the Colts' Delone Carter and the Redskins' Roy Helu.

Carter had 11 carries for 46 yards on Sunday against the Browns, and he has 18 rushing attempts in Indy's first two games -- compared to Joseph Addai's 22. Carter has yet to catch a pass, and Addai is obviously the better fantasy option, but the Copley High School product is the no-doubt-about-it No. 2 back in Indianapolis, ahead of 2009 first-round pick Donald Brown, who has zero carries in two games.

Helu, meanwhile, had 10 rushes for 74 yards and three receptions for 38 yards Sunday against the Cardinals. Tim Hightower is the featured back in Washington, as his 168 rushing yards in two games attest, but Helu can be productive in games in which the Redskins have the lead and long-time fantasy tormentor Mike Shanahan is able to spread the carries around.

Of the four options we've discussed here, McCluster is the best in PPR formats, followed by Jones, Helu and Carter.

In non-PPR leagues, Jones is the No. 1 option, followed by McCluster, Helu and Carter.

Fantasy football: Is Reggie Bush a starter?

2011-09-16T09:00:00.001-04:00

When my brother drafted Reggie Bush with the first pick of the fifth round of a 12-team league, I immediately thought it was the worst pick of the night, which was still young.

In Week 1 against the Patriots, Bush had 11 carries for 38 yards and caught nine passes for 56 yards and one TD in his Miami debut.

As luck would have it, I played my brother in Week 1. He didn't need to tell me I was wrong to make fun of his Bush selection because he beat me so badly he would have won without Bush's 24.4 points.

Am I incorrect about Bush? Time will tell.

Until then, a few points on why I still don't believe in the former Mr. Kim Kardashian:

-- In his first five NFL seasons, Bush never rushed for more than 581 yards.

-- He played in only 44 of 64 games from 2007 to '10.

-- In the three years in which he had 100-plus carries, he averaged 3.6, 3.7 and 3.8 yards per carry.

-- He has 30 touchdowns in 61 career games.

Yes, Bush is a very good receiver and can be an asset in point-per-reception formats (which is the scoring system the league in which I compete with my brother utilizes). In 2006, his rookie season, he had 88 catches for 742 yards with the Saints, and he had 73 receptions in 12 games in '07.

Bush, however, hasn't surpassed 52 catches in a season since, and he's averaged only 26 receiving yards per game since 2008.

His productive Monday night was helped in part by the absence of rookie Daniel Thomas, who was inactive because of a hamstring injury. Thomas is expected to return this week, and the pair should soon be sharing carries.

Miami drafted Thomas in the second round last April. And Bush can't be considered an ideal first- and second-down back.

I would expect Thomas to be "the guy" by midseason. And I expect my brother to admit I was right.

(OK, I'll settle for one out of two.)

Fantasy football: Buy and sell

2011-09-15T19:13:00.000-04:00

In this week's column for the print and Web editions of the News-Herald (spend the extra 75 cents on Saturday!), we will have an expanded sale.

Our three big purchases, if you will, concern Ray Rice, Brandon Marshall and the Panthers' Steve Smith (not the former Giant who was held without a catch last week in his Eagles debut). Our three sales involve Reggie Wayne, DeAngelo Williams and Chad Ochocinco.

None of which is to say we're down on Wayne and we're stating the obvious -- that Rice, Smith and Marshall are good. It involves predictions -- for example, buying that Peyton Hillis won't rush for 1,000 yards this season (don't worry, Browns fans, this isn't one of our beliefs) or selling the possibility of Steven Jackson ever staying healthy.

Anyway, here are two more predictions that didn't make the column because of space constraints.

BUY

Tim Hightower will be a top-20 fantasy running back.

Hightower had 25 of Washington's 26 rushing attempts in Week 1, and he proved in 2008 and '09 with Arizona that he can be an effective source of touchdowns (a combined 18 on the ground in those two years). Hightower is capable of being a big asset in the passing game (he had 63 receptions in 2009), and he averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2010.

Granted, he plays for Mike Shanahan, who has toyed with our emotions at running back before. But Week 1, in which Hightower had 97 total yards, one TD and three receptions, seems to be a sign of good things to come.

SELL

Assuming Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, he's a top-10 quarterback.

Yes, that's a big assumption regarding Stafford, who played in three games last season and 10 in 2009, his rookie year. Stafford threw for 305 yards, three TDs and an interception Sunday at Tampa Bay, and, dating back to last season, he has 757 yards passing, nine TDs and two picks in his last three games.

This week, the Lions play host to the Chiefs, who were torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, so you should consider Stafford a must-start this week.

Regardless, Stafford has thrown as many interceptions as touchdown passes (22) in his brief career. He could be great. He could be mediocre. He could be on injured reserve by Week 4.

If you drafted Stafford as a backup, my advice is sell high.

Fantasy football: Week 2 waiver-wire picks

2011-09-13T19:02:00.000-04:00

If you drafted Steven Jackson, we can only hope you had a backup plan in mind.

Ditto for Marques Colston.

Let's play the waiver-wire game, and hope Jackson doesn't stub his toe on the way to the trainer's room this week.

1. Devery Henderson, WR, Saints (owned in 15.1 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com): We believe he's the best available free agent this week (unless you play in a very shallow league) because of injuries to Colston and Lance Moore. Colston is expected to miss four weeks because of a broken collarbone, and Moore sat last week with a groin injury. Henderson had six receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown on Thursday at Green Bay. It was his first 100-yard game since 2009 and he has only 18 TDs in 93 career games, so don't get too excited if he's available. But he is capable of making a big play (Henderson's career average is 18.6 yards per catch), and Drew Brees has to throw to a wideout other than Robert Meachem.

2. Cadillac Williams, RB, Rams (14.3 percent): Jackson strained his quad on his opening carry of the season -- a 47-yard touchdown run -- leading to a flashback game from Williams. The Cadillac, who hasn't averaged more than 3.9 yards per carry in a season since his 1,178-yard rookie year (2005), had 19 carries for 91 yards and five catches for 49 yards last week. With Jackson out at least this week, Williams will be the Rams' primary back Monday against the Giants.

3. Dustin Keller, TE, Jets (40.8 percent): He had five catches for 61 yards and a TD last week. Keller is underrated after a productive 2010 (55 receptions for 687 yards and five scores) and should be considered a lower-level starting tight end in a 12-team league.

Five other possible free agents of note:

-- Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills (41.9 percent): We ranked him as the top Peyton Manning replacement option last week, and all Fitzpatrick did Sunday was throw for 208 yards and four TDs at Kansas City. That gives him 27 TDs and 15 interceptions in 14 games dating to the start of 2010.

-- Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots (35.1 percent): We like Rob Gronkowski better, and Tom Brady might, too, but when the Pats throw for 517 yards, there are plenty of catches to go around. Hernandez had seven receptions for 103 yards and a TD on Monday night, slightly better than Gronkowski's six catches for 86 yards and a score. Both are quality starting options, and both are better than Chad Ochocinco, who had all of one catch in his New England debut.

-- Ben Tate, RB, Texans (33.5 percent): If you own Arian Foster, we're assuming you already have Tate. If not, it might be too late after the latter rushed for 116 yards and a TD on 24 carries against the Colts. Derrick Ward, who was expected to split the carries last week with Foster out, sprained his ankle, allowing Tate to show he can be a featured back. Foster might return this week, and if he does, Tate is a fantasy reserve. Regardless, he's a must-have for anyone who invested a first-round pick on Foster.

-- Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (18.7 percent): He had five catches for 60 yards last week and caught 55 passes for 625 yards and six TDs in 2010. If Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, Burleson should be productive enough to consider a low-end No. 3 fantasy receiver.

-- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals (8.4 percent): Is it me, or are there more quality tight ends than ever before (no jokes please)? Greshman had six receptions for 58 yards and a TD last week, and he caught 52 passes as a rookie last season.

Fantasy football: Cam Newton reaction

2011-09-12T00:22:00.001-04:00

Imagine stepping into the cluttered mind of Steve Smith.

The 32-year-old Panthers receiver, once a stud, had all of 46 receptions for 554 yards and two touchdowns last season. There were four reasons for the poor numbers: Jimmy Clausen, Matt Moore, Brian St. Pierre and Tony Pike.

As Ken Lucas will tell you, Smith is not to be messed with. It's a safe assumption Clausen was more than a little terrified during his terrible rookie season of 2010.

Enter Cam Newton. Return to fantasy relevance for Smith.

I think the latter is the biggest development from Newton's huge day Sunday at Arizona. The 2011 No. 1 overall draft pick completed 24 of 37 passes for 422 yards, two TDs and one interception. He also rushed for 18 yards and a score.

The yards are the most ever for a rookie on opening day.

Newton's huge game undoubtedly will result in many owners rushing to acquire him on the waiver wire this week, since he went undrafted in many formats.

I can't disagree with anyone who wants Newton as a backup, but if you're hoping he will be your starter, you should make such a move with vastly reduced expectations.

Sunday undoubtedly will be Newton's best game of 2011. It occurred against a Cardinals defense that ranked 23rd against the pass last season.

Newton is relevant in fantasy for the first time, but that doesn't make him a No. 1 fantasy QB.

The fact that we can expect him to be decent this season, though, elevates Smith from a lower-level No. 3 receiver in a 12-team league to at least a low-end No. 2.

Sunday, Smith had eight catches for 178 yards and two TDs. The scores were from 77 and 26 yards out.

Consider that last year Smith never had more than 85 yards receiving in a game. He surpassed 50 yards in a contest four times in 14 chances, and he had more than five catches once. He has as many TDs in 2011 as he did in 2010.

You get the point.

Maybe 2010 wasn't a sign of him losing a step.

Maybe it was the fact his QBs were terrible.

And maybe he'll much more closely resemble the player who averaged 88 receptions for 1,288 yards and eight TDs from 2005 to '08 than the one who was so angry on the sideline last year Ken Lucas -- who wasn't even in the NFL in 2010 -- was petrified.

Fantasy football: Peyton Manning replacement options

2011-09-08T19:58:00.000-04:00

Before we address the latest in the Peyton Manning saga, a quick disclaimer.

I was wrong. Manning's streak of 227 consecutive starts, including the playoffs, will end Sunday because of a third neck surgery in the last 19 months. So much for a third-round value pick.

ESPN reported the typical recovery for such a procedure is 8 to 10 weeks, and the Colts said in a news release Thursday they won't place Manning on injured reserve.

If you have Manning, you should keep him on your roster for the time being unless you absolutely can't afford to reserve a spot for a player who won't help you until, at best, mid-November.

If you drafted Manning and are scrambling for a starter this week, here are five possible replacements. All are available in more than 75 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com.

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills (owned in 24.1 percent of the ESPN leagues): Fitzpatrick threw for 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns in 13 games last season. Sunday, Buffalo will play at Kansas City, which ranked 17th defending the pass last season (220 yards allowed per game, 23 TD passes by the opposition).

2. Kerry Collins, Colts (3.7 percent): The 38-year-old won't be able to fill Manning's sizable shoes, but he certainly can be adequate. In 10 games last year for the Titans, Collins threw for 1,823 yards, 14 TDs and eight interceptions. In Tennessee's 31-17 win Dec. 19 over the Texans, Sunday's opponent, he was 14 of 24 for 233 yards, two TDs and one pick. The Texans should be improved against the pass this season -- they couldn't get any worse -- but they should still be generous to opposing QBs. In 2010, Houston allowed a league-worst 4,280 yards passing, gave up 8.2 yards per attempt (the second-worst in the league) and 33 TD tosses (tied with the Cowboys for the most).

3. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans (10.1 percent): Hasselbeck hasn't been good the last three seasons (a combined 34 TDs and 44 picks in 35 games), but he gets to face a Jaguars defense that ranked 28th vs. the pass in 2010 (4,004 yards). The Jags tied for 26th in the league by yielding 28 scoring passes last season.

4. Rex Grossman, Redskins (2.7 percent): In three games after replacing Donovan McNabb in 2010, Grossman threw for 840 yards, seven TDs and four picks. The Giants, however, aren't a very good matchup. New York was the NFL's No. 9 pass defense (3,352 yards), but the G-Men did allow 24 TD tosses.

5. Jason Campbell, Raiders (22.9 percent): Campbell's passing numbers were nothing to brag about last season (2,387 yards, 13 TDs and eight picks), but the same goes for Denver's defense. The Broncos, who will play host to the Raiders on Monday night, ranked 25th against the pass, allowing 3,780 yards and 26 TD passes. The latter number tied for 24th in the league in 2010.

If you're thinking more long term, I would rank the five QBs in this order for the rest of the season: 1. Fitzpatrick, 2. Collins, 3. Grossman, 4. Hasselbeck, 5. Campbell.

2011 fantasy football rankings: Kickers and defenses/special teams

2011-09-02T09:00:00.001-04:00

If you are a fan of the quick slants we've done at the end of the first three sets of rankings this week, we've got bad news for you: The kickers, defenses and special teams don't get quick slants.

Jim Tressel isn't here anymore. We don't treat special teams as if it's the most important aspect of football.

If we've disappointed you, hopefully this will cheer you up: Links to the rankings for the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers and tight ends.

Enjoy. And now the final two starting spots in your fantasy lineup you fill on draft day ...

Rank, player, team FG, 40+, PAT, Pts
1. Nate Kaeding, SD 23-28, 10-14, 40-40, 109
2. Sebastian Janikowski, Oak 33-41, 12-19, 43-43, 142
3. Neil Rackers, Hou 27-30, 8-11, 43-43, 124
4. Stephen Gostkowski, NE 10-13, 2-4, 26-26, 56
5. Matt Bryant, Atl 28-31, 9-11, 44-44, 128
6. Mason Crosby, GB 22-28, 10-14, 46-46, 112
7. Josh Brown, StL 33-39, 10-13, 26-27, 125
8. Rob Bironas, Ten 24-26, 10-11, 38-38, 110
9. Alex Henery, Phi ROOKIE
10. Billy Cundiff, Bal 26-29, 7-9, 39-39, 117
11. Adam Vinatieri, Ind 26-28, 9-10, 51-51, 129
12. Jay Feely, Ari 24-27, 10-13, 29-29, 101
13. Robbie Gould, Chi 25-30, 7-11, 35-35, 110
14. Nick Folk, NYJ 30-39, 5-11, 37-37, 127
15. David Akers, SF 32-38, 10-14, 47-47, 143
16. Garrett Hartley, NO 20-25, 8-9, 40-40, 100
17. David Buehler, Dal 24-32, 12-17, 42-44, 114
18. Dan Carpenter, Mia 30-41, 15-26, 25-25, 115
19. Ryan Longwell, Min 17-18, 2-2, 30-31, 81
20. Lawrence Tynes, NYG 19-23, 5-7, 43-43, 100

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS
Rank, team Pts-TD-Sacks-TO
1. Steelers 14.5-4-48-35
2. Packers 15.0-4-47-32
3. Jets 19.0-5-40-30
4. Eagles 23.6-3-39-34
5. Ravens 16.9-4-27-27
6. Patriots 19.6-9-36-38
7. Bears 17.9-4-34-35
8. Saints 19.2-2-33-25
9. Chargers 20.1-3-47-22
10. Giants 21.7-0-46-39
11. Lions 23.1-4-44-29
12. Chiefs 20.4-4-39-23
13. Falcons 18.0-5-31-31
14. Cowboys 27.2-7-35-30
15. Dolphins 20.8-1-39-19
16. Raiders 23.2-7-47-24
17. Vikings 21.8-3-31-25
18. Rams 20.5-0-43-26
19. 49ers 21.6-5-36-22
20. Cardinals 27.1-12-33-30

Note: For kickers, 40+ are the kicker’s makes and attempts from 40 yards or more. ... For defenses and special teams, points allowed are per-game averages. TD totals are defensive and special-team touchdowns. TO is turnovers forced. ... Statistics are from the 2010 season.

2011 fantasy football rankings: Wide receivers and tight ends

2011-09-01T00:15:00.003-04:00

A few quick notes before the rankings:

-- We updated our running back rankings with the news Wednesday night that Arian Foster's hamstring injury might be more serious than we originally thought. The first round -- after Adrian Peterson -- is as dicey as ever.

-- We'll break down three of the biggest issues owners will face early in the draft -- Foster's injury, Chris Johnson's holdout and Peyton Manning trying to recover from neck surgery -- in a column this weekend in the print editions of The News-Herald and at www.news-herald.com.

-- For the quarterback rankings, click here. For the running backs, go here.

On to the wideouts and tight ends:

WIDE RECEIVERS
Rank, player, team GP-Rec-Yds-TD
1. Andre Johnson, Hou 13-86-1,216-8
2. Roddy White, Atl 16-115-1,389-10
3. Calvin Johnson, Det 15-77-1,120-12
4. Larry Fitzgerald, Ari 16-90-1,137-6
5. Greg Jennings, GB 16-76-1,265-12
6. Hakeem Nicks, NYG 13-79-1,052-11
7. Reggie Wayne, Ind 16-111-1,355-6
8. Mike Wallace, Pit 16-60-1,257-10
9. Miles Austin, Dal 16-69-1,041-7
10. Vincent Jackson, SD 5-14-248-3
11. DeSean Jackson, Phi 14-47-1,056-6
12. Dez Bryant, Dal 12-45-561-6
13. Dwayne Bowe, KC 16-72-1,162-15
14. Brandon Lloyd, Den 16-77-1,448-11
15. Mike Williams, TB 16-65-964-11
16. Brandon Marshall, Mia 14-86-1,014-3
17. Wes Welker, NE 15-86-848-7
18. Marques Colston, NO 15-84-1,023-7
19. Steve Johnson, Buf 16-82-1,073-10
20. Santonio Holmes, NYJ 12-52-746-6
21. Anquan Boldin, Bal 16-64-837-7
22. Jeremy Maclin, Phi 16-70-964-10
23. Percy Harvin, Min 14-71-868-5
24. Mario Manningham, NYG 16-60-944-9
25. Santana Moss, Was 16-93-1,115-6
26. Chad Ochocinco, NE 14-67-831-4
27. Austin Collie, Ind 9-58-649-8
28. Sidney Rice, Sea 6-17-280-2
29. Pierre Garcon, Ind 14-67-784-6
30. Steve Smith, Car 14-46-554-2
31. Kenny Britt, Ten 12-42-775-9
32. Mike Thomas, Jac 16-66-820-4
33. Julio Jones, Atl ROOKIE
34. Malcom Floyd, SD 11-37-717-6
35. Lance Moore, NO 16-66-763-8
36. Braylon Edwards, SF 16-53-904-7
37. Johnny Knox, Chi 16-51-960-5
38. Hines Ward, Pit 16-59-755-5
39. A.J. Green, Cin ROOKIE
40. Danny Amendola, StL 16-85-689-3
41. Mike Sims-Walker, StL 14-43-562-7
42. Davone Bess, Mia 16-79-820-5
43. Michael Crabtree, SF 16-55-741-6
44. Plaxico Burress, NYJ DID NOT PLAY
45. Jordy Nelson, GB 16-45-582-2
46. Jacoby Ford, Oak 16-25-470-2
47. Jerome Simpson, Cin 5-20-277-3
48. Mike Williams, Sea 14-65-751-2
49. Nate Burleson, Det 14-55-625-6
50. Steve Breaston, KC 13-47-718-1
51. James Jones, GB 16-50-679-5
52. Deion Branch, NE 15-61-818-6
53. Roy Williams, Chi 15-37-530-5
54. Lee Evans, Bal 13-37-578-4
55. Robert Meachem, NO 16-44-638-5
56. Donald Driver, GB 15-51-565-4
57. Emmanuel Sanders, Pit 13-28-376-2
58. Derrick Mason, NYJ 16-61-802-7
59. Danario Alexander, StL 8-20-306-1
60. Antonio Brown, Pit 9-16-167-0

Note: Statistics are from the 2010 season.

Quick slants: Andre Johnson had a "down" 2010 after averaging 108 receptions for 1,572 yards and eight TDs in 2008 and '09. ... White has had at least 83 receptions for 1,153 yards or more in each of the last four years. ... Jennings had a big season after totaling only 13 TDs in '08 and '09. ... Calvin Johnson had big 2008 and '10 seasons, but had a combined nine TDs in '07 and '09. Hopefully, it's not an odd-year thing. ... Prior to last year, Fitzgerald had three consecutive seasons with at least 96 receptions and 10 TDs. ... The Colts' Wayne seems underrated, if that's possible, on some websites. He has had 100 catches or more in three straight seasons, and he has seven consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. ... In 2009, the Chargers' Jackson had 68 receptions for 1,167 yards and nine TDs. ... The Dolphins' Marshall could provide huge value as a No. 2 fantasy receiver if he returns to his form from 2007-09, in which he had 101 catches or more and 1,120 yards or more each year. He had 23 combined TDs in that span.

TIGHT ENDS
Rank, player, team GP-Rec-Yds-TD
1. Antonio Gates, SD 10-50-782-10
2. Dallas Clark, Ind 6-37-347-3
3. Jason Witten, Dal 16-94-1,002-9
4. Vernon Davis, SF 16-56-914-7
5. Jermichael Finley, GB 5-21-301-1
6. Owen Daniels, Hou 11-38-471-2
7. Kellen Winslow, TB 16-66-730-5
8. Jimmy Graham, NO 15-31-356-5
9. Tony Gonzalez, Atl 16-70-656-6
10. Brandon Pettigrew, Det 16-71-722-4
11. Marcedes Lewis, Jac 16-58-700-10
12. Zach Miller, Sea 15-60-685-5
13. Rob Gronkowski, NE 16-42-546-10
14. Dustin Keller, NYJ 16-55-687-5
15. Chris Cooley, Was 16-77-849-3
16. Greg Olsen, Car 16-41-404-5
17. Tony Moeaki, KC 15-47-556-3
18. Brent Celek, Phi 16-42-511-4
19. Aaron Hernandez, NE 14-45-563-6
20. Todd Heap, Ari 13-40-599-5

Quick slants: Gates played all 64 games between 2006 and '09, and had ridiculous numbers in 2010, considering he played 10 games. ... Clark, the No. 2 tight end, is also coming off an injury-plagued year. He had a monster 2009 (100 receptions for 1,106 yards and 10 TDs). ... You shouldn't have to worry about injury if you take Witten, who has played in all 64 games the last four years and posted at least 81 receptions and 952 yards each season. The drawback: He has averaged 5.5 TDs per season in that span. ... The Packers' Finley is an injury risk (18 games played since 2009), but he is very good when healthy (76 receptions for 977 yards and six TDs in that span). ... The 49ers' Davis had 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 TDs in 2009. ... After Davis, there is a pretty big drop. The Texans' Daniels -- the consensus No. 6 tight end in fantasy -- has all of 17 TDs in five years. ... The Falcons' Gonzalez could provide late-round value at age 35. He's ranked as a backup tight end on some sites, but he's much better than the likes of Greg Olsen. Though Gonzo had his lowest yardage total since 1998, his second NFL season, he still had 70 catches and six TDs. ... Don't overrate the Jaguars' Lewis, who, prior to his breakout 2010, had seven TDs in four years and had never had more than 41 receptions or 518 yards.

NEXT: Kickers and defenses/special teams

2011 fantasy football rankings: Running backs

2011-08-31T01:53:00.009-04:00

If you missed the first position rankings of the season, click here for a breakdown of the quarterbacks.

On to the players most of us can't live without in the first round of our draft: the running backs.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Chris Johnson ending his holdout, combined with concerns over Arian Foster's hamstring injury, have resulted in a shakeup of our original top six running backs.

Now that Johnson is no longer a threat to miss any games, and Foster is, we have Johnson at No. 2, followed by Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles. We dropped Foster to No. 5, one spot ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew.

If the injury is a threat to keep Foster out of the regular-season opener, it's a threat to bother him all year, which is a huge concern, obviously, for a player we considered No. 1 overall a few weeks ago. We'll have more on the values of Foster and Johnson on Saturday in a column in the print editions and at www.news-herald.com.

Rank, player, team GP-Yds-TD-Rec
1. Adrian Peterson, Min 15-1,298-13-36
2. Chris Johnson, Ten 16-1,364-12-44
3. Ray Rice, Bal 16-1,220-6-63
4. Jamaal Charles, KC 16-1,467-8-45
5. Arian Foster, Hou 16-1,616-18-66
6. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac 14-1,324-7-34
7. LeSean McCoy, Phi 15-1,080-9-78
8. Rashard Mendenhall, Pit 16-1,273-13-23
9. Frank Gore, SF 11-853-5-46
10. Michael Turner, Atl 16-1,371-12-12
11. Steven Jackson, StL 16-1,241-6-46
12. Matt Forte, Chi 16-1,069-9-51
13. Darren McFadden, Oak 13-1,157-10-47
14. Peyton Hillis, Cle 16-1,177-13-61
15. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG 16-1,235-8-47
16. LeGarrette Blount, TB 13-1,007-6-5
17. DeAngelo Williams, Car 6-361-1-11
18. Felix Jones, Dal 16-800-2-48
19. Ryan Mathews, SD 12-678-7-22
20. Jahvid Best, Det 16-555-6-58
21. Knowshon Moreno, Den 13-779-8-37
22. Ryan Grant, GB 1-45-0-0
23. Shonn Greene, NYJ 15-766-2-16
24. Beanie Wells, Ari 13-397-2-5
25. Cedric Benson, Cin 16-1,111-8-28
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE 16-1,008-13-12
27. Joseph Addai, Ind 8-495-4-19
28. Tim Hightower, Was 16-736-5-21
29. Daniel Thomas, Mia ROOKIE
30. Marshawn Lynch, Sea 16-737-6-22
31. Mark Ingram, NO ROOKIE
32. Fred Jackson, Buf 16-927-7-31
33. Jonathan Stewart, Car 14-770-3-8
34. Pierre Thomas, NO 6-269-2-29
35. James Starks, GB 3-101-0-2
36. Mike Tolbert, SD 15-735-11-25
37. LaDainian Tomlinson, NYG 15-914-6-52
38. C.J. Spiller, Buf 14-283-1-24
39. Michael Bush, Oak 14-655-8-18
40. Brandon Jacobs, NYG 16-823-9-7
41. Ryan Torain, Was 10-742-6-18
42. Willis McGahee, Den 15-380-6-14
43. Ricky Williams, Bal 16-673-3-19
44. Reggie Bush, Mia 8-150-1-34
45. Thomas Jones, KC 16-896-6-14
46. Danny Woodhead, NE 14-547-6-34
47. Ben Tate, Hou DID NOT PLAY
48. Javon Ringer, Ten 16-239-2-7
49. Donald Brown, Ind 13-497-2-20
50. Jerome Harrison, Det 12-330-1-12

Note: Yds are rushing yards only, TD are the back’s combined rushing and receiving touchdowns, and Rec stands for receptions. ... Statistics are from the 2010 season.

Quick slants: The electric Charles has totaled 2,587 yards rushing, 85 receptions, 765 yards receiving and 16 TDs the last two seasons. He has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in that span. ... Gore has missed a total of nine games the last three years. ... In three years with the Falcons, Turner has a combined 39 TDs, but only 23 receptions. ... The Rams' Jackson, who really has only had one big season, has a combined 10 TDs the last two years. ... The Panthers' Williams had a huge 2008, but has eight TDs in 19 games since. ... The Lions' Best had five of his six TDs in his first two games as a rookie. ... A possible sleeper is the Packers' Starks, who rushed for 315 yards in four playoff games last season. He could take over for Ryan Grant as the featured back at some point this season.

NEXT: Wide receivers

2011 fantasy football rankings: Quarterbacks

2011-08-29T23:23:00.001-04:00

A quick note before we get to our first set of fantasy football rankings this preseason: The fact the Colts activated Peyton Manning from the physically unable to perform list Monday is enough for me to place the Colts quarterback in the top six at his position.

Yes, it might be a bit of a risk to take Manning in the third round of a 12-team league, but if you're hesitant to draft the player who has started 208 consecutive games, ask yourself the following questions:

Would you rather have Manning coming off neck surgery than Tony Romo, who played six games last year?

Would you rather have Matt Schaub, who threw for 4,370 yards in 2010 but finished nine TDs shy of Manning's 33?

Do you prefer Ben Roethlisberger, who averaged 250 yards passing per game last season, but only 1.4 TD tosses per contest?

I'd rather select Manning, even if there is a slight chance he will miss a game or two. He's 35, but still ranked in the top two of the league in yards passing (a career-high 4,700) and TD passes (33) last year.

Rank, player, team GP-Yds-TD-Int
1. Aaron Rodgers, GB 15-3,922-28-11
2. Michael Vick, Phi 12-3,018-21-6
3. Drew Brees, NO 16-4,620-33-22
4. Philip Rivers, SD 16-4,710-30-13
5. Tom Brady, NE 16-3,900-36-4
6. Peyton Manning, Ind 16-4,700-33-17
7. Tony Romo, Dal 6-1,605-11-7
8. Matt Schaub, Hou 16-4,370-24-12
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Pit 12-3,200-17-5
10. Matt Ryan, Atl 16-3,705-28-9
11. Josh Freeman, TB 16-3,451-25-6
12. Eli Manning, NYG 16-4,002-31-25
13. Joe Flacco, Bal 16-3,622-25-10
14. Kyle Orton, Den 13-3,653-20-9
15. Matt Cassel, KC 15-3,116-27-7
16. Sam Bradford, StL 16-3,512-18-15
17. Matthew Stafford, Det 3-535-6-1
18. Jay Cutler, Chi 15-3,274-23-16
19. Kevin Kolb, Ari 7-1,197-7-7
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buf 13-3,000-23-15
21. Mark Sanchez, NYJ 16-3,291-17-13
22. David Garrard, Jac 14-2,734-23-15
23. Jason Campbell, Oak 13-2,387-13-8
24. Donovan McNabb, Min 13-3,377-14-15
25. Colt McCoy, Cle 8-1,576-6-9

Note: Statistics are from the 2010 season.

Quick slants: Rodgers has averaged 4,131 yards passing and 33 total TDs (passing and rushing) the last three seasons. ... Vick reached 3,000 yards passing for the first time in 2010. ... In five years with the Saints, Brees has norms of 4,584 yards passing and 31 TD tosses. ... Rivers has norms of 4,324 yards and 31 TD passes since 2008. ... Brady has averaged 4,149 yards passing and 32 TDs since 2009. ... Peyton Manning has thrown for 4,000 or more yards in five consecutive seasons. His brother, Eli, has averaged 4,012 yards and 29 TD tosses the last two years. ... Prior to his injury-marred 2010, Romo averaged 4,047 yards and 29 TD tosses from 2007-09. ... Schaub has norms of 4,570 yards and 27 TD passes since 2009. ... Orton -- who has thrown for 7,455 yards and 41 TDs in 29 games since 2009 -- is underrated by many sites.

NEXT: Running backs

Fantasy football: Can you take Michael Vick in Round 1?

2011-08-25T18:22:00.000-04:00

When I ranked the top 12 players in fantasy football in a News-Herald column not long after the lockout ended, I placed Eagles quarterback Michael Vick ninth.

As fate -- or cruel luck -- would have it, I landed the ninth pick in a random draw for the fantasy league in which I take the most pride. (I'm as goofy about fantasy as the most addicted guy or gal you know, but I want to win this league more than any other because of the amount of family who participate. And what is more fun than taking money from your brothers, even as you approach 40?)

Now I'm asking myself: Can I take Vick ninth overall? Can I pass on a running back, a draft route I select in the first round 99 times out of 100?

The short answer is no. The long answer is I'm confident I won't have to make that choice, because Vick is such a tempting choice he probably will be long gone before No. 9, since passing touchdowns also count as six points in this league.

In what amounted to 11 games of work last season, Vick threw for 3,018 yards and 21 touchdowns, and he ran for 676 yards for nine TDs.

That's 30 total TDs in about 44 quarters of work.

The bad: It was his first 3,000-yard passing season, and the first time he had more than 20 touchdown passes.

We know Vick will put up numbers, and if he stays healthy, he will be among the top scorers in a fantasy league regardless of format.

Will he stay healthy? Can you take that risk in the first round?

As much as I like what Vick could bring to my fake team, I'm hoping I don't have to make the decision.

Fantasy football: How Peyton Manning's injury affects his value

2011-08-23T20:16:00.000-04:00

It's odd to have doubts about Peyton Manning from a fantasy perspective.

You can question whether or not he's clutch. You might think he's overexposed and want to harm Jim Nantz after seeing that Sony commercial 1,000 times (is it just me?).

In fantasy, the only complaint you might have with Manning is when the Colts decide to stop playing in Week 15 or 16 every year.

This season, Manning is recovering from neck surgery that will keep him out for the entire preseason. He told CBSSports.com he will need "every single second" of the next two weeks to get ready for the regular-season opener.

Coming from a player who has never missed a game in 13 years, that's saying quite a bit.

It's also going to have a dramatic effect on his fantasy value.

In my mind, there are five quarterbacks you have to take ahead of Manning on draft day -- Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady.

We've seen Manning ranked ahead of Rivers on some sites, but I wouldn't make that pick. Granted, Manning threw for a career-high 4,700 yards and had his second-best total in terms of touchdown passes (33) in 2010 (all with Austin Collie and Dallas Clark missing significant time with injuries), but Rivers is sensational, and injury-free.

The Chargers' QB threw for 4,710 yards and 30 TDs last season, and he's averaged 4,324 yards and 31 TDs the last three seasons.

That puts Manning sixth at QB, ahead of the likes of Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger.

ESPN has Manning ranked fifth at QB and 22nd overall, seven spots ahead of Rivers (No. 6 QB, No. 29 overall). CBS' two fantasy writers rank Manning fifth and sixth at QB, and 19th and 29th overall. The average ranking of Manning by Yahoo's writers is seventh at QB -- and a whopping No. 40 overall.

The latter number is way too low. You can be worried about Manning, but you shouldn't doubt that he will play most, if not all, of this season.

That makes him no worse than a third-round pick in a 12-team league. I wouldn't take him in Round 2 -- which is where Manning is going in ESPN (average draft position: No. 23) and CBS (ADP: No. 18) leagues.

I'd gladly take him in Round 3, after the top six QBs are off the board.

At that point, he provides very good value, and could be considered a steal.

An added bonus: It would prevent us from seeing countless shots of him on the sideline wearing jeans.

Fantasy football: Peyton Hillis analysis

2011-08-18T19:18:00.000-04:00

If you're a Browns fan, you probably love Peyton Hillis.

If you're just a fantasy football fan (and how can you not be?), you appreciate Hillis' unlikely rise to a featured role in an NFL backfield after serving as a blocking back for Darren McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas.

You also have to love the video below, whether you like the Browns or Steelers.

Take away the feel-good story and the YouTube video, though, and you have a bruising back who took a lot of punishment last season and already is dealing with a hamstring injury during the 2011 preseason.

Hillis rushed for 1,177 yards and 11 touchdowns and caught 61 passes for 477 yards and two TDs last season. He had 331 touches in 16 games, an average of 20.7 per contest.

Look a little deeper at the numbers, though, and you get this:

First 11 games: 199 carries, 905 yards, 4.5 average, 11 TDs, 46 receptions for 414 yards, two TDs. TOTALS: 245 touches for 1,319 yards and 13 TDs (5.4 yards per touch).
Last five games: 71 carries, 272 yards, 3.8 average, zero TDs, 15 receptions for 63 yards, zero TDs. TOTALS: 86 touches for 345 yards and zero TDs (4.0 yards per touch).

Clearly, Hillis wasn't the same player in the last five weeks of the season.

Clearly, that's a concern if you're planning on investing a second-round pick on him on draft day.

A few words of advice: Don't -- in Round 2.

The addition of Brandon Jackson and the return to health of Montario Hardesty (at least that's what we're led to believe on the latter) should mean fewer carries for Hillis, which might keep him fresh in December.

It also could lead to a decline in his yardage and TD totals. If you're in a point-per-reception league, you have to wonder if Jackson, who had 43 catches for the Packers last season, will be the primary third-down back and help keep Hillis' catch total below 40.

In its preseason rankings, ESPN has Hillis No. 13 among running backs and No. 25 overall. CBS has him No. 17 at running back and No. 33 overall, and Yahoo is similar to CBS with rankings of 15 at running back and 32 overall.

I haven't finished all of my research for 2011, but in my mind, there are 11 running backs you have to take ahead of Hillis -- Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Jones-Drew, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Steven Jackson and Darren McFadden. There are two others I probably would select over Hillis -- Michael Turner and Matt Forte, though it would be understandable if you think Hillis is better than both.

That puts Hillis as a third-round pick in a 12-team league. I'd much rather have him as my No. 2 running back, not my No. 1.

Cool story and all.

Fantasy football: How Chris Johnson's holdout affects Round 1

2011-08-16T19:40:00.000-04:00

In our post-lockout look at the first round of a 12-team fantasy football league, we had Chris Johnson ranked third overall -- behind Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson.

It was a close No. 3 -- the distance between Foster and Johnson was roughly the same as the tight bond between LeBron James and Akron (he's not from Cleveland, he's from Akron, as he's told us over and over and over again).

Now, with Johnson and the Titans embroiled in a contract dispute -- albeit a mild one, since the team has publicly said it's willing to make the dreadlocked speedster the highest-paid running back in the league -- you might have a very difficult decision to make on draft day.

If Johnson still hasn't reported to the Titans by next weekend, when more and more leagues begin to hold their drafts, he has to drop at least slightly in the early drafts.

We had Ravens running back Ray Rice ranked fourth overall in the early top 12, followed by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles.

Depending on your feelings about taking a quarterback in the first round, Johnson could slide to at least No. 5 if he's holding out, since Rice, especially in point-per-reception leagues, is worthy of the No. 3 overall pick.

I wouldn't take Rodgers over Johnson unless the league in question awards six points for a touchdown pass, not four. In leagues in which every TD is worth six points, Rodgers -- who threw for 289 yards or more in nine games last season and had eight games with at least two TD passes -- and Michael Vick might be the top two scorers in 2011.

As long as Johnson returns in time for the regular season, there should be little concern he will be productive without a training camp.

Even though his 2010 season didn't live up to his ridiculous numbers from 2009 (2,006 yards rushing, 5.4 yards per carry, 16 total TDs, plus 50 catches for 503 yards), Johnson still ran for 1,364 yards, caught 44 passes for 245 yards and had 12 combined rushing and receiving TDs.

ESPN's Adam Schefter has reported those close to Johnson believe he should be paid as one of the top playmakers in the league -- not just the top running back. Chris Mortensen has added that C.J. wants a contract in which he will make an average of $13 million in the first three years.

The Vikings' Peterson is the NFL's highest-paid back at $10.2 million this season, and he is scheduled to become a free agent next year and will surely get in the neighborhood of $13 million or more per season that Johnson so covets.

At 25 and with only 925 career carries, the Titans certainly should feel comfortable enough to give Johnson a huge contract, rather than risk a lengthy holdout and/or an unhappy camper.

If 28-year-old DeAngelo Williams -- who has rushed for more than 1,117 yards once in his career and is coming off a season in which he played six games -- can get a five-year, $43 million contract with $21 million in guarantees, C.J. will get paid, and paid very well.

The question is when?

The other is how long are you willing to wait if you are selecting third or fourth overall?

Fantasy baseball: Jose Constanza analysis

2011-08-15T08:00:00.054-04:00

What if I told you that on Nov. 23, 2010, when the Braves signed former Indians prospect Jose Constanza to a minor-league contract, you would A.) Think the Tribe was crazy to let him go; B.) Be tempted to acquire Constanza in fantasy baseball less than nine months later?

In his first 55 at-bats as a big-leaguer, Constanza is batting .382 with 13 runs scored, two home runs, eight RBI, five stolen bases and a .959 OPS. He's been so productive outfielder Jason Heyward -- who drove in 72 runs as a rookie last season and was believed to be one of the best young players in the major leagues -- hasn't been playing every day.

As of Sunday night, Constanza was owned in 13.4 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com.

If you need help in steals and runs scored, he's an intriguing choice, even as a 27-year-old who seemed destined to be a career minor-leaguer.

Constanza batted .290 in his career down on the farm. In 2,782 at-bats, he scored 454 runs and stole 433 bases. At Triple-A Columbus in 2010 (his last season with the Indians organization before he became a free agent), he batted .319 with 34 steals and 69 runs in 404 at-bats.

(If you're a Lake County Captains fans, you probably know Constanza played in Eastlake in 2005 and '06. In a combined 67 games, he batted only .264, but had 40 runs and 21 steals in 231 at-bats.)

Aside from the obvious question about Constanza (what if he had one fewer consonant in his last name? Baseball needs a Jose Costanza), another key issue is whether he can be trusted to be anything close to the player he has been in his first 15 games with Atlanta.

The guess here is he will hit for a quality average, steal a lot of bases and score quite a few runs. Don't expect any power -- his two homers already seem to be two too many for a player who had all of six in the minor leagues -- but you can get away with that from your No. 3 outfielder if Constanza excels in the other three categories.

Stranger things have happened. This is, after all, a player, who does this.

Fantasy baseball: Updated top 100

2011-08-14T09:00:00.031-04:00

A lot has changed since we last ranked the top 100 players in fantasy baseball.

More than four months later, 39 players have dropped out. If you go by our late-March list, the biggest busts this season, not surprisingly, are Hanley Ramirez (No. 3 preseason) and Carl Crawford (No. 4).

Both didn't make the cut this time around, but in fairness to Ramirez, he's injured. That leaves Crawford as the biggest bust, and the Tribe's Asdrubal Cabrera as one of the biggest surprises.

Cabrera didn't make the top 100 in the preseason, but he's No. 23 now, the biggest leap of any player who wasn't ranked prior to the year. The next-biggest jumps among the unranked were by Lance Berkman (now No. 24), Ben Zobrist (28), Melky Cabrera (31) and Dan Haren (37).

Of the players who were ranked in the preseason, the Yankees' Curtis Granderson made the biggest jump, from No. 90 to 2. Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is next at 62 spots (from 68 to 6), followed by Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw (from 72 to 21), Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro (from 89 to 43) and Angels pitcher Jered Weaver (from 58 to 12).

If you couldn't care less about the booms and the busts and just want to see the rankings, my apologies for the first five paragraphs. Here they are, with one caveat: Players who are on the disabled list weren't eligible, since this is meant to be a current ranking of the best in fantasy. The only exceptions were the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez and the Braves' Brian McCann, both of whom are expected to return in the new few days (McCann as soon as today).

1. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays (preseason: 21)
2. Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees (90)
3. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers (34)
4. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers (9)
5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox (18)
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox (68)
7. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers (29)
8. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies (7)
9. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers (38)
10. Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies (10)
11. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox (22)
12. Jered Weaver, SP, Angels (58)
13. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers (5)
14. Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks (53)
15. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals (1)
16. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (8)
17. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies (55)
18. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees (11)
19. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers (32)
20. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates (37)
21. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers (72)
22. Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers (6)
23. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians (NR)
24. Lance Berkman, OF, Cardinals (NR)
25. CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees (33)
26. Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies (31)
27. Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Red Sox (26)
28. Ben Zobrist, 2B, Rays (NR)
29. Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies (70)
30. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies (49)
31. Melky Cabrera, OF, Royals (NR)
32. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies (2)
33. Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox (61)
34. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees (28)
35. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays (13)
36. Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies (64)
37. Dan Haren, SP, Diamondbacks (NR)
38. David Wright, 3B, Mets (15)
39. Victor Martinez, C/DH, Tigers (35)
40. Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals (17)
41. Michael Young, DH, Rangers (67)
42. James Shields, SP, Rays (NR)
43. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs (89)
44. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs (71)
45. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (82)
46. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles (NR)
47. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees (16)
48. Ian Kennedy, SP, Diamondbacks (NR)
49. Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers (44)
50. Carlos Santana, C, Indians (77)
51. Brian McCann, C, Braves (43)
52. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants (14)
53. Hunter Pence, OF, Phillies (52)
54. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds (41)
55. Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox (27)
56. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals (30)
57. Michael Bourn, OF, Braves (NR)
58. Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox (NR)
59. Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, Twins (NR)
60. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers (NR)
61. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Tigers (NR)
62. Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks (NR)
63. Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks (57)
64. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers (NR)
65. Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners (12)
66. Jeff Francoeur, OF, Royals (NR)
67. Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves (40)
68. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies (47)
69. Carlos Beltran, OF, Giants (NR)
70. Ryan Vogelsong, SP, Giants (NR)
71. C.J. Wilson, SP, Rangers (NR)
72. Joe Mauer, C, Twins (19)
73. Alex Gordon, OF, Royals (NR)
74. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves (NR)
75. Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals (NR)
76. John Axford, RP, Brewers (NR)
77. Brian Wilson, RP, Giants (78)
78. Alexi Ogando, SP, Rangers (NR)
79. Michael Morse, 1B, Nationals (NR)
80. Billy Butler, 1B, Royals (86)
81. Jonathon Papelbon, RP, Red Sox (NR)
82. Matt Cain, SP, Giants (87)
83. Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox (NR)
84. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers (92)
85. Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles (NR)
86. Ryan Roberts, 3B, Diamondbacks (NR)
87. Ricky Romero, SP, Blue Jays (NR)
88. Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies (NR)
89. Yunel Escobar, SS, Blue Jays (NR)
90. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins (97)
91. Drew Storen, RP, Nationals (NR)
92. Justin Masterson, SP, Indians (NR)
93. Zack Greinke, SP, Brewers (NR)
94. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds (NR)
95. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves (93)
96. Mariano Rivera, RP, Yankees (94)
97. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Marlins (NR)
98. Heath Bell, RP, Padres (79)
99. Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners (NR)
100. Jose Valverde, RP, Tigers (NR)

Five who just missed the cut: Carlos Lee, OF, Astros; Martin Prado, OF, Braves; Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners; Tim Hudson, SP, Braves; Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox

Top 100 by position: Outfielders 25, starting pitchers 25, first basemen 12, closers 8, third basemen 8, second basemen 7, shortstops 7, catchers 5, designated hitters 3.

Fantasy baseball: More on Stephen Strasburg

2011-08-13T19:29:00.001-04:00

Last Sunday, we wrote about the intrigue that is the possibility of adding Stephen Strasburg and stashing him on your roster for the fantasy postseason.

That option looks even better after Friday, when Strasburg threw three scoreless innings in his second minor-league rehab appearance. The big right-hander's fastball reached 99 mph, according to mlb.com, and his changeup was consistently clocked at 90.

He struck out five, and 26 of his 33 pitches were strikes.

All told, Strasburg has thrown strikes on 51 of 64 pitches in his first two games since Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. He has nine Ks and has allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings.

"I know I'm going to be the pitcher I was (before surgery)," Strasburg told reporters Friday.

That pitcher struck out 92 in 68 innings as a rookie last season. That pitcher likely won't be seen until 2012, when his workload increases.

Regardless, even in five-inning increments in September, the thought of Strasburg pitching once or twice a week is at worst intriguing and at best much more exciting than playing the likes of Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, Randy Wolf or (enter the name of any fringe starter here).

As of Saturday, Strasburg was available in more than 75 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com.

If you have the roster space, it's time. He's not BACK, but he's in the vicinity, and these opportunities don't come around often.

Fantasy baseball: Paging Stephen Strasburg

2011-08-07T23:32:00.002-04:00

He wowed us last year as a rookie, striking out a ridiculous 92 batters in 68 innings for the Nationals.

Sunday, Stephen Strasburg toed the mound for Class A Hagerstown (Md.). It was big news because he threw in a game for the first time since he blew out his right elbow on Aug. 21, 2010. Thirteen days after that, the top pick of the 2009 draft had the dreaded Tommy John surgery.

A little more than 11 months following surgery, Strasburg hit 98 mph on the radar gun in his first rehab start. According to reports, he regularly threw in the mid- to high 90s. Twenty-five of his 31 pitches in 1 2/3 innings were strikes, and he struck out four of the eight batters he faced.

"(The velocity was) not where it was," Strasburg told reporters.

But it's close enough, and the appearance has captured the attention of us, the fantasy nerds.

We realize the best-case scenario is Strasburg won't pitch for the Nationals until September, and even then, he'll be on a very limited pitch count.

Regardless, we can't help but be excited about the possibility of inserting him in our lineups during the fantasy postseason, which begins the week of Sept. 5 in many leagues.

If you make the postseason in your league, chances are you have some solid starting pitching. If you need help in Ks, though, Strasburg could provide a boost -- even if he only throws five innings.

If you need anything else from him in a particular week (say, wins), you should probably look elsewhere. Depending on his pitch count, he might not last five innings in some starts.

If nothing else, Strasburg has us looking forward to drafting him next year (or keeping him, if you're in a dynasty format).

Sunday, he said he expects to be "back to normal" by next spring.

He will provide one of the more intriguing draft-day subplots in 2012.

Until then, acquire him on the waiver wire if you believe you'll need some strikeouts in the postseason -- but do so quickly.

As of Sunday night, Strasburg already was owned in 8.3 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com.

By Monday morning, that figure likely will triple.

Fantasy baseball: Should you start Desmond Jennings?

2011-07-26T21:26:00.003-04:00

The obvious answer seems to be yes.

Entering Tampa Bay's late game Tuesday night at Oakland, in his first three games since the Rays promoted him from Triple-A, Jennings has ...

-- Two hits in each contest.

-- One steal in each game.

-- Batted .547 with two runs scored, two RBI, three steals and a 1.667 OPS.

So he's a slam-dunk, no-doubt-about-it, Jay-Bilas-would-love-to-tell-you-about-his-upside choice as a fantasy starter, right?

Wrong.

Jennings is 24 and, by most accounts, could be a very good major-leaguer for a long time. But there is a reason he was dropped from No. 6 on Baseball America's list of the top prospects in the game entering 2010 to No. 22 prior to this season.

In a combined 737 at-bats in Triple-A in 2010 and '11, Jennings batted .277 with 150 runs, 15 homers, 75 RBI and 54 steals.

The steals and runs scored totals are outstanding. The other three are mediocre for an outfielder, which makes me wonder if Jennings is being overrated in fantasy because: 1. He's a big name in the minor-league ranks; and 2. His terrific start with the Rays.

When he received the call from Class AAA Durham, Jennings was leading the International League in runs scored with 68 in 89 games. His other numbers, aside from steals, were pedestrian -- .275, 12 homers, 39 RBI and 17 steals. In 1,919 at-bats overall in the minors, Jennings hit .294 with 382 runs, 41 homers, 200 RBI, 188 steals and an .822 OPS.

I could be wrong, and Jennings could be excellent for the majority of the last two months of the major-league season.

Or the lessons we've learned thus far from five of the biggest position player prospects in the game could be a sign that Jennings will cool down considerably and might produce decent stats at best in his first extended action with Tampa.

To wit:

-- Entering Tuesday, Tribe third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall was batting .246 with two homers and four RBI in 61 at-bats as a rookie.

-- Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown was batting .247 with five homers, 17 RBI, three steals and a .743 OPS.

-- Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas was hitting .202 with one homer, eight RBI and a .515 OPS.

-- Angels phenom Mike Trout was batting .179 with a .546 OPS.

-- The only rookie position player and top-20 prospect who seems to be enjoying consistent success is Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer. The 21-year-old entered Tuesday batting .283 with nine homers and 40 RBI in 283 at-bats.

Jennings could prove me wrong. He'd be far from the first to accomplish that task, which, if you ask my wife, is among the most simple.

But I wouldn't anoint him as The Next Big Thing.

Heck, I wouldn't even start him unless I was in an AL-only league and needed some help in steals and/or runs scored.

Fantasy baseball: Jeff Keppinger analysis

2011-07-19T21:29:00.000-04:00

Because he was traded from the worst team in baseball to the reigning World Series champions, Jeff Keppinger will be much more popular on the waiver wire in the coming days.

Keppinger, who was sent from the Astros to the Giants for two prospects on Tuesday, is batting .307 in 163 at-bats since May 27, when he made his season debut following foot surgery. Keppinger is owned in 3.5 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, but that number likely will double or triple by the end of the week.

If you're looking for help at second base, Keppinger can provide a batting average boost. Aside from that, however, he isn't much of an asset.

Keppinger has four homers, 20 RBI, 22 runs and a .755 OPS this season. In 514 at-bats with Houston in 2010, he hit .288 with 62 runs, six homers, 59 RBI, four steals and a .744 OPS. In 2008 and '09, he batted .266 and .256, respectively (though he is a .284 career hitter).

Entering San Francisco's late game Tuesday night, Keppinger had two home runs in his last three games -- a number that is more deceiving than LeBron James' collection of MVP trophies.

The 31-year-old Keppinger's career highs are as follows: seven homers, 59 RBI, four steals and 62 runs.

Translation: Acquire him only if you play in a category league and need to improve your team's batting average.

A name to remember following the Houston-San Francisco trade (but likely not this season): Jose Altuve.

Altuve, 21, will take over at second base for the Astros. He's a .327 career hitter in the minor leagues. In 1,466 at-bats -- never above Class AA -- he has 30 homers, 208 RBI, 117 steals and 276 runs.

This season, Altuve batted a combined .389 in Class A and AA.

Could he be a fantasy fixture? Absolutely, but it's unlikely Altuve will do so in 2011 after never getting an at-bat in Triple-A.

Fantasy baseball: Is this the end for Grady Sizemore?

2011-07-18T21:04:00.000-04:00

One of the most unfortunate aspects of Grady Sizemore's latest injury is he had started hitting again.

Since July 9, he was 8-for-20 (a .400 average for the mathematically challenged) with five runs scored, two home runs and four RBI. A sure sign he was going well: Sizemore struck out "only" four times in that span.

The latter number is a far cry from his outrageous season average of one K per 3.1 at-bats (75 strikeouts in 232 at-bats).

Yes, we know Sizemore strikes out too much, but it should never be this much. In 2008 -- when he batted .268 with 33 homers, 90 RBI and 38 steals -- he fanned 130 times in 634 at-bats, a much more manageable rate of one K per 4.9 at-bats.

In addition to the Ks, a sure sign Sizemore hasn't been right physically for a while is his stolen-base total.

This season, he has none, giving the Indians outfielder four in 94 games since 2010. In that span, he is a .228 hitter who has 110 Ks in 360 at-bats (one per 3.3 at-bats).

Now he's back in Cleveland for more tests on his injured right knee. He told reporters the ailment fees similar to the left knee injury he suffered in 2010 -- the one that led to microfracture surgery.

The former fantasy stud missed nine games total from 2005 to '08. Since 2009, he has played 200 games in three years, and we shouldn't be surprised if that total doesn't increase at all in 2011.

If you own Sizemore in fantasy, you'll be lucky if he helps you even a little the rest of the season.

At this point, we have to wonder if he'll ever be a quality fantasy starter again, even at 28.

Considering the Indians hold an $8.5 million option on Sizemore's contract in 2012, he also might have played his last game for the Tribe.

Fantasy baseball: Updated pitcher rankings

2011-07-07T19:53:00.000-04:00

Before we get to the second of our two sets of position rankings, here are a few links:

-- The updated batters rankings we published last week can be found here.

-- Our late May batter rankings can be found here, and the pitching rankings from five weeks ago are here.

Got all that? Then it's on to the starting pitchers and closers.

As we have explained, players on the disabled list at the time of the rankings are not considered. Players are ranked at each position at which they are eligible, according to ESPN.com's criteria.

On to the rankings ...

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Justin Verlander, Tigers
3. Jered Weaver, Angels
4. Cliff Lee, Phillies
5. CC Sabathia, Yankees
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. James Shields, Rays
8. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
9. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
10. Dan Haren, Angels
11. Tommy Hanson, Braves
12. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
13. Tim Lincecum, Giants
14. Michael Pineda, Mariners
15. Gio Gonzalez, Athletics
16. Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
17. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
18. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
19. David Price, Rays
20. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
21. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants
22. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
23. Alexi Ogando, Rangers
24. Matt Cain, Giants
25. Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
26. Trevor Cahill, Athletics
27. Ricky Romero, Blue Jays
28. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
29. Shaun Marcum, Brewers
30. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
31. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
32. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
33. Josh Tomlin, Indians
34. Philip Humber, White Sox
35. Bartolo Colon, Yankees
36. Jason Vargas, Mariners
37. Max Scherzer, Tigers
38. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
39. Johnny Cueto, Reds
40. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
41. Zack Greinke, Brewers
42. Colby Lewis, Rangers
43. Jeff Karstens, Pirates
44. Dillon Gee, Mets
45. Justin Masterson, Indians
46. Scott Baker, Twins
47. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
48. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
49. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
50. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
Last ones out: Carlos Carrasco, Indians; Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers; Jonathon Niese, Mets; Tim Stauffer, Padres; Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Disabled list: Jon Lester, Red Sox; Brett Anderson, Athletics; Clay Buchholz, Red Sox; Roy Oswalt, Astros; Jonathan Sanchez, Giants; Josh Johnson, Marlins; Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies; Johan Santana, Mets; Carlos Zambrano, Cubs; Aaron Harang, Padres; Erik Bedard, Mariners

RELIEF PITCHERS
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Heath Bell, Padres
3. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates
4. Brian Wilson, Giants
5. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
6. Drew Storen, Nationals
7. John Axford, Brewers
8. Huston Street, Rockies
9. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
10. Sergio Santos, White Sox
11. Neftali Feliz, Rangers
12. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
13. Jordan Walden, Angels
14. Fernando Salas, Cardinals
15. Chris Perez, Indians
16. Kyle Farnsworth, Rays
17. Jose Valverde, Tigers
18. Joakim Soria, Royals
19. Leo Nunez, Marlins
20. Francisco Cordero, Reds
21. Andrew Bailey, Athletics
22. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets
23. Brandon League, Mariners
24. Antonio Bastardo, Phillies
25. David Hernandez, Diamondbacks
Last ones out: Kevin Gregg, Orioles; Frank Francisco, Blue Jays; Joe Nathan, Twins

Disabled list: J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks; Ryan Madson, Phillies; Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers; David Aardsma, Mariners; Brad Lidge, Phillies; Vicente Padilla, Dodgers; Brandon Lyon, Astros

Fantasy baseball: Admiring Albert Pujols

2011-07-07T00:29:00.003-04:00

A reader emailed two weeks ago saying she had been offered Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki in a proposed trade.

She was being asked to give back Carl Crawford and Jhoulys Chacin. At the time, she was in last place in her rotisserie-style league.

At the time, both Pujols and Crawford were on the disabled list, only Pujols was four days into what was expected to be at least a six-week absence because of a broken left wrist.

Since she was in last place, I told her she probably couldn't afford to wait on Sir Albert.

We entered Wednesday with Pujols back in the Cardinals' lineup -- and Crawford still on the DL.

Pujols missed all of 17 days with the injury. Crawford, who has a hamstring injury, hasn't even gone on a rehab assignment yet.

To her, I say: Oops. My bad.

None of us could have foreseen this, not even the ESPN producers behind this commercial.

Before his injury, Pujols was batting .317 with eight home runs, 14 RBI, 19 runs and a 1.197 OPS in 63 at-bats in June.

Wednesday night, he was 1-for-6 with an RBI in his return.

He really is a machine.

I should have realized that two weeks ago.

Fantasy baseball: Updated batter rankings

2011-06-30T19:20:00.000-04:00

We're back with another round of the always-popular, often-debated fantasy baseball position player rankings.

To be all-inclusive, David Ortiz, Travis Hafner and the other players who aren't eligible at any position except utility are ranked on their own. It was also a way for us to have Hideki Matsui and Jim Thome crack a top five.

For our late May batter rankings, click here.

As we wrote in that post, players on the disabled list at the time of the rankings are not considered. Players are ranked at each position at which they are eligible, according to ESPN.com's criteria (hence the frequent Michael Young mentions, along with Jose Bautista leading the way at both third base and the outfield).

Before you read the lists, say a quick farewell to Grady Sizemore, who didn't make the top 36 in the outfield after being ranked No. 23 last month.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Victor Martinez, Tigers
3. Alex Avila, Tigers
4. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
5. Carlos Santana, Indians
6. Joe Mauer, Twins
7. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
8. Russell Martin, Yankees
9. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
10. Matt Wieters, Orioles
11. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
12. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays
Disabled list: Buster Posey, Giants; Mike Napoli, Rangers

FIRST BASEMEN
1. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
2. Prince Fielder, Brewers
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Joey Votto, Reds
5. Mark Teixeira, Yankees
6. Paul Konerko, White Sox
7. Lance Berkman, Cardinals
8. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
9. Michael Young, Rangers
10. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
11. Ryan Howard, Phillies
12. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
DL: Albert Pujols, Cardinals; Justin Morneau, Twins; Ike Davis, Mets; Kendry Morales, Angels

SECOND BASEMEN
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Michael Young, Rangers
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
7. Ben Zobrist, Rays
8. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
9. Howard Kendrick, Angels
10. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
11. Chase Utley, Phillies
12. Neil Walker, Pirates
DL: Martin Prado, Mets; Brian Roberts, Orioles; Freddy Sanchez, Giants

SHORTSTOPS
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
3. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
4. Starlin Castro, Cubs
5. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
6. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
7. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
8. Yunel Escobar, Blue Jays
9. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
10. J.J. Hardy, Orioles
11. Erick Aybar, Angels
12. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
DL: Derek Jeter, Yankees; Jed Lowrie, Red Sox

THIRD BASEMEN
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
2. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
3. Michael Young, Rangers
4. Adrian Beltre, Rangers
5. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
6. Evan Longoria, Rays
7. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
8. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
9. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
10. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
11. Placido Polanco, Phillies
12. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
DL: Martin Prado, Braves; David Wright, Mets; Pedro Alvarez, Pirates

DESIGNATED HITTERS
These are the players who aren't eligible anywhere else, and there barely are five worth mentioning:
1. David Ortiz, Red Sox
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Vladimir Guerrero, Orioles
4. Hideki Matsui, Athletics
5. Jim Thome, Twins

OUTFIELDERS
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
2. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
5. Curtis Granderson, Yankees
6. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
7. Matt Holliday, Cardinals
8. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
9. Shane Victorino, Phillies
10. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
11. Lance Berkman, Cardinals
12. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
13. Hunter Pence, Astros
14. Michael Bourn, Astros
15. Adam Jones, Orioles
16. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
17. Michael Morse, Nationals
18. Carlos Beltran, Mets
19. Ben Zobrist, Rays
20. Jay Bruce, Reds
21. Melky Cabrera, Royals
22. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
23. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
24. Alex Gordon, Royals
25. Coco Crisp, Athletics
26. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
27. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
28. Nelson Cruz, Rangers
29. Drew Stubbs, Reds
30. Johnny Damon, Rays
31. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
32. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
33. Jason Heyward, Braves
34. Mike Stanton, Marlins
35. B.J. Upton, Rays
36. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
DL: Martin Prado, Braves; Carl Crawford, Red Sox; Jason Kubel, Twins; Shin-Soo Choo, Indians; Delmon Young, Twins; Jose Tabata, Pirates

Fantasy baseball: Should you be starting Chisenhall?

2011-06-28T21:59:00.000-04:00

Lonnie Chisenhall is available in more than 97 percent of the ESPN.com leagues.

In leagues in which the majority of the members live in or are from Northeast Ohio, I'd be willing to gamble "The Chiz Kid" has been scooped up on the waiver wire in about three-quarters of the formats.

If you're an Indians fan, you probably expect big things from the Tribe's first-round pick in the 2008 draft. If you're an Indians fan who plays fantasy baseball, your loyalty to the Tribe might be clouding your judgment of the roster of your fake team.

At Triple-A Columbus this season, Chisenhall batted .265 with seven home runs, 44 RBI, 44 runs and a .779 OPS in 253 at-bats. Were it not for a stretch in which he had two home runs and 14 RBI in his last five games, his numbers would barely be mediocre.

At Class AA Akron in 2010, he batted .278 with 81 runs, 17 home runs, 84 RBI and an .801 OPS in 460 at-bats.

Will Chisenhall be an All-Star in the future? Tribe fans can only hope. What we do know is his minor-league numbers, if you didn't know to whom they were attached, wouldn't make you look twice if you saw them on baseball-reference.com.

In 1,470 at-bats overall, Chisenhall batted .271 with 235 runs, 51 homers, 265 RBI and a .795 OPS. That is a 600 at-bat average of 21 homers, 108 RBI and 96 runs.

Productive? Yes. Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer productive? No, especially when you consider most top prospects have inflated minor-league stats.

In his four minor-league seasons, Chisenhall has batted above .278 once in a season -- that year, at short-season Class A Mahoning Valley.

Again, he might end up being great. (The Indians are banking on it.)

But it's much too soon to consider Chisenhall a starter in deeper mixed leagues, even after a 2-for-4 debut Monday night.

He will play every day, but if he's not going to hit for average and/or a lot of power, you should be able to do much better at third base.

Fantasy baseball: Is Carlos Carrasco an every-week starter?

2011-06-22T19:28:00.000-04:00

Remember when we were led to believe Jason Knapp was the key to the Cliff Lee trade with Philadelphia in 2009?

Regardless of your feelings about the deal, the facts as we know them thus far are ...

-- Knapp is out for the season following shoulder surgery, his second shoulder operation since the trade.

-- Catcher Lou Marson, also a part of the deal, is batting .235 with no home runs and seven RBI for the Tribe.

-- Infielder Jason Donald, the third of four players the Indians received for Lee and Ben Francisco (currently batting .222 with six homers and 26 RBI for the Phillies), is playing for Triple-A Columbus.

That leaves Carlos Carrasco as possibly the only hope from that trade for the Indians, and fortunately for them, he's pitching like an ace. He's no Cliff Lee, but he's pretty darn good.

How good, you ask? Must-start good? (Fantasy baseball is, after all, why you're here. Or is it just the witty banter?)

Let's break it down.

-- Overall, Carrasco is 7-3 with a 3.87 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 79 innings this season.

-- Since May 17, he is 6-1 in his last seven starts. In that 45-inning span, he has a 2.80 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10 walks and 29 Ks.

-- He's allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven contests.

-- In his last three games, he's 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 17 Ks in 22 2/3 innings. He has given up one run in that stretch.

Carrasco doesn't have the strikeout average (5.6 per nine innings) you would like from a top-flight fantasy starter, but he is making up for it in almost every other area.

His minor-league track record suggests he will improve in that area (he had a norm of 8.0 Ks per nine innings down on the farm), and he wins. In 31 starts for Class AAA Columbus in 2009 and '10, Carrasco was a combined 16-7 with 169 Ks in 192 2/3 innings.

I wouldn't consider him a No. 3 or No. 4 starter in a deeper mixed league, but the numbers are impossible to ignore.

Start him. Lou Marson, he is not.

Fantasy baseball: Albert Pujols replacement options

2011-06-22T01:25:00.002-04:00

Let's get this out of the way now: You don't replace The Machine.

Albert Pujols, until Sunday, seemed invincible.

The Cardinals first baseman's season averages from 2001 to '10, his first 10 years in the majors, were as follows: .331, 41 home runs, 123 RBI, 119 runs and eight steals. He played at least 154 games in eight of the 10 years, and appeared in 143 and 148 contests in the other two (2006 and '08, respectively).

Sunday, as you know by now, Pujols fractured his left wrist. The Cardinals said he will miss about six weeks, which takes him out of your lineup through at least Week 17.

He started slowly by his standards, but had begun to heat up this month, batting .317 with eight homers, 14 RBI and a 1.197 OPS in 63 at-bats.

Now what?

If you own Pujols, here are some possible waiver-wire acquisitions, along with a couple of players you could target in a trade. All of the waiver-wire candidates are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com.

All statistics are through Tuesday, unless noted.

Waiver-wire possibilities

1. Ty Wigginton, Rockies (owned in 38.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): We like his versatility (he's eligible at first base, third base and the outfield in most leagues), and his power (Wigginton hit 22 homers or more three times in four years from 2007 to '10). This season, he is batting .261 with seven homers, 24 RBI and four steals in 184 at-bats. Since May 24, he has been much more productive, batting .296 with five homers and 13 RBI in 98 at-bats.

2. Freddie Freeman, Braves (40.9 percent): He was ranked as the game's 17th-best prospect by Baseball America heading into the season, and he's shown pretty good power as a rookie (seven homers and 27 RBI in 253 at-bats). He's hitting .269 and strikes out too often (69, once per 3.7 at-bats). The average should improve, though. In Triple-A in 2010, Freeman batted .319 with 18 homers, 87 RBI, six steals and an .898 OPS in 461 at-bats.

3. Mark Trumbo, Angels (48.7): He has the best power numbers of the group (12 homers, 30 RBI) and he's stolen six bases, but Trumbo is hitting .254 with a .761 OPS as a rookie. In June, he is batting .250 and has two homers and two RBI in 56 at-bats. He eventually should hit for average, however. In Triple-A in 2010, he batted .301 with 36 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs and a .945 OPS.

4. Brett Wallace, Astros (18.1): He's hitting .296 with an .810 OPS, though you likely need more power from your first baseman. Wallace has four homers and 21 RBI, and he's 0-for-17 in his last three games. In April, he batted .388, and he has followed by hitting .250 in May and .232 in June. Like Freeman, Trumbo and the player at No. 6 on this list, Wallace should be a future stud. He batted .304 with 46 homers and 180 RBI in 1,119 at-bats in the minor leagues.

5. Casey Kotchman, Rays (3.0): He's hitting .339 with an .858 OPS, but, like Wallace, his power numbers leave something to be desired (three homers and 18 RBI in 183 at-bats). Kotchman has been consistent, hitting .341 in April, .373 in May and .297 in June, a trend that includes his lack of power (one homer each month). If you are going to acquire him, you need him to hit for average to make up for the low home-run and RBI totals. If that's the case, consider that Kotchman is a .265 career hitter.

6. Anthony Rizzo, Padres (22.7): He's off to a slow start since getting called up by the Padres, batting .167 with a homer, two RBI and 13 Ks in 36 at-bats. The 21-year-old was a key piece to the Adrian Gonzalez deal with Boston, and he was tearing up Triple-A before his promotion (.365, 16 homers, 63 RBI and a 1.159 OPS in 200 at-bats in 2011). He's likely a year away.

7. Derrek Lee, Orioles (29.6): This former stud is hitting .243 with four homers, 18 RBI and a .649 OPS. Lee hasn't homered since May 8, and at age 35, he's about as far away from Pujols as I am from Dirk Nowitzki in a late-afternoon pickup game. But if you've made it this far down the list, you are getting desperate and might be willing to take a chance on a player who was very good as recently as 2009.

8. James Loney, Dodgers (25.0): He batted .293 in May, and he entered Tuesday's late game against the Tigers hitting .322 in June. The bad news: He has virtually no power (three homers and 13 RBI in 151 at-bats in those two hot-hitting months). Loney batted .331 in 2007 and he's a .284 career hitter, but he hit .267 in 2010 and is hitting .266 this season. If you're scoring at home, this is where the Pujols options get to beyond-desperate levels.

Position play

Pirates outfielder Garrett Jones (27.4 percent) has played only two games at first base this season, but he's eligible there in most leagues. If he is available on the waiver wire, consider him in the middle of the above list -- at No. 5, ahead of Kotchman. He is batting .250 with seven homers, 26 RBI and three steals in 180 at-bats. In June, however, he's batting .333 with nine RBI in 45 at-bats, and he tallied a combined 42 homers and 17 steals in 906 at-bats in 2009 and '10.

Trade targets

1. Michael Morse, Nationals: Since May 23, he's been among the best in fantasy -- batting .346 with 11 homers, 24 runs and 32 RBI in 107 at-bats. Overall, Morse is hitting .308 with 13 homers, 43 RBI and a .913 OPS. The reason I think you could get him in a trade is he's 29 and he isn't a proven commodity. He's never had more than 266 at-bats. That and the fact he wasn't drafted in many leagues, which means the owner who has him (unless he also has Pujols) might not need him at first base. Morse is also eligible in the outfield, so you could play him there when Pujols returns.

2. Michael Cuddyer, Twins: He batted .300 in May and he entered Tuesday's late game against the Giants hitting .333 in June. Cuddyer has 10 homers and 28 RBI overall, and he is eligible to play second base and the outfield.

Fantasy baseball rookie watch: Anthony Rizzo and Dee Gordon

2011-06-15T21:19:00.001-04:00

As we wrote Monday, Eric Hosmer -- and now Mike Moustakas -- have made us rethink our hesitancy to play rookies in fantasy baseball.

(Imagine that: The Royals raising the bar.)

With that in mind, two more highly touted first-year players made their major-league debuts last week -- Padres first baseman Anthony Rizzo and Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon.

How will they fare? Should they start? Let's break it down Jay Bilas style (we're talking big upside).

-- Rizzo: As of Wednesday night, he was available in half of the leagues on ESPN.com, which sounds about right for a 21-year-old who, prior to 2011, had never played above Double-A.

Rizzo, one of the key pieces in the Adrian Gonzalez trade with Boston, was tearing up Triple-A this season. In 200 at-bats, he hit .365 with 16 homers, 63 RBI, a .715 slugging percentage and 1.159 OPS.

The negative: He batted .263 in Class AA in 2010, and he's off to a 4-for-21 start with the Padres (.190). Rizzo has struck out nine times, but he's also shown good discipline (seven walks and a .414 on-base percentage).

If you are desperate for power, especially in an NL-only league, he should provide a decent amount. If you can afford to wait a year (and if you're in a 10- or 12-team mixed league, you should), Rizzo will be much more productive once he's had more than one season combined in Triple-A and the big leagues.

-- Gordon: With Rafael Furcal on the disabled list (surprise, surprise) with an oblique injury, Gordon has become an everyday starter for the Dodgers. Furcal isn't expected back until July, and with his track record, we should expect Gordon to play the majority of the last three-plus months.

Gordon was ranked as the 26th-best prospect by Baseball America prior to 2011 (Rizzo was No. 75), and he has the minor-league numbers to prove it. In 1,544 at-bats, he batted .299 with 261 runs scored and 166 steals. He was batting .315 in Triple-A this year before he received the call to L.A.

In his first nine games with the Dodgers, Gordon -- who is available in almost 88 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com -- has had five multi-hit performances and is batting .333 with six runs and three steals.

He isn't going to help you in the power department (he had seven homers and 119 RBI in the minors), but he can hit for average and he can fly.

Thanks in part to Hosmer and Moustakas, I wouldn't rule out starting Gordon in deeper mixed leagues. If you need steals, play him immediately.

Fantasy baseball: Analyzing Mike Moustakas' fantasy value

2011-06-13T22:45:00.000-04:00

In fantasy baseball, I tend to avoid playing rookies as if I'm LeBron James standing on the perimeter, pretending not to be noticed by a teammate during the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.

Mike Moustakas, like teammate Eric Hosmer before him, is making me question that philosophy.

The Royals' rookie third season entered 2011 ranked as the No. 9 prospect by Baseball America. He got off to a slow start in Triple-A this year, batting .229 in April, but rebounded to hit .287 with 10 home runs and 44 RBI in 223 at-bats.

That prompted a call to Kansas City, and he's 3-for-10 with three runs scored and a homer in his first three contests.

By now, he's been scooped up in almost every league. But if you're in a mixed league, you might be torn on whether or not to start him.

If so, consider the following:

-- Of all the eligible third basemen in ESPN.com leagues, only seven players have hit nine or more home runs.

-- One is the Braves' Martin Prado, who is an outfielder. One is the Tigers' Jhonny Peralta, who is a starting shortstop. One is Jose Bautista, who is a Blue Jays outfielder and the early leader for 2011 fantasy MVP.

-- Another player included among the seven: the Orioles' Mark Reynolds, who is batting .203 with 65 strikeouts in 207 at-bats.

It's safe to stay, then, that third base isn't as strong as it's been in years' past.

If you need a power boost, start Moustakas. If you have a quality third baseman and don't have a very good bat in your utility spot, start Moustakas.

In a combined 484 at-bats in Double-A and Triple-A last season, he hit .332 with 36 homers (which tied for the lead in all of the minors) and 124 RBI.

In 1,736 career at-bats down on the farm (roughly three full seasons), he batted .282 with 84 homers, 335 RBI, 281 runs and an .840 OPS.

In a combined 486 at-bats in Class AAA since 2010, he struck out 69 times in 486 at-bats -- a very un-Reynolds-like average of one K per seven at-bats.

Moustakas should hit in the .280 range with power.

At third base this season, that should be enough.

Fantasy baseball: Updated 2011 pitcher rankings

2011-05-31T21:38:00.000-04:00

If you needed further proof that closers should never be drafted early in fantasy baseball, look at Joakim Soria.

The 27-year-old saved 43 games in 46 chances with a 1.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the Royals last season. He struck out 71 batters in 65 2/3 innings.

This season, Soria seemed to lose it, blowing three consecutive saves to lose his job to rookie Aaron Crow. Soria entered Tuesday night 7-for-12 in save chances with a 6.55 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and three losses this season.

Those numbers are a far cry from 2009 and '10, when Soria saved a combined 73 games in 79 chances, had a 1.97 ERA and struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings.

Now he's a setup man to Crow, the Royals' first-round pick in 2009 (No. 12 overall) who has been very effective in 27 innings this season (2-0, 1.33 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 26 Ks).

Then there's this: In 29 games in the minor leagues, and in college at Missouri, Crow was a starting pitcher. In the minors, he had 5.73 ERA.

Just another reminder to step aside next spring when your fellow league owners go on a closer run. Select anyone but a relief pitcher.

Crow doesn't make the top 25 of the closer rankings that follow, but he should be considered a No. 3 reliever in a 10- or 12-team mixed league.

Without further delay, our starting pitcher and closer rankings through the first two months of the season. For our batter rankings, click here.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Jered Weaver, Angels
3. Tim Lincecum, Giants
4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
5. Cole Hamels, Phillies
6. Dan Haren, Angels
7. James Shields, Rays
8. Trevor Cahill, Athletics
9. Jon Lester, Red Sox
10. Justin Verlander, Tigers
11. Michael Pineda, Mariners
12. Tommy Hanson, Braves
13. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
14. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
15. David Price, Rays
16. Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
17. Gio Gonzalez, Athletics
18. CC Sabathia, Yankees
19. Cliff Lee, Phillies
20. Alexi Ogando, Rangers
21. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
22. Max Scherzer, Tigers
23. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
24. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
25. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
26. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
27. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
28. Ricky Romero, Blue Jays
29. Shaun Marcum, Brewers
30. Brett Anderson, Athletics
31. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
32. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
33. Roy Oswalt, Phillies
34. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
35. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
36. Zack Greinke, Brewers
37. Kyle McClellan, Cardinals
38. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
39. Matt Cain, Giants
40. Zach Britton, Orioles
41. Justin Masterson, Indians
42. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
43. Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
44. Josh Tomlin, Indians
45. Jake Arrieta, Orioles
46. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants
47. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
48. Colby Lewis, Rangers
49. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
50. Ervin Santana, Angels
Last ones out: Tim Hudson, Braves; Randy Wolf, Brewers; Madison Bumgarner, Giants; Charlie Morton, Pirates; A.J. Burnett, Yankees; Aaron Harang, Padres

Disabled list: Josh Johnson, Marlins; Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies; Johan Santana, Mets; Wandy Rodriguez, Astros; Matt Garza, Cubs

RELIEF PITCHERS
1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
2. Brian Wilson, Giants
3. Heath Bell, Padres
4. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets
5. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
6. Leo Nunez, Marlins
7. Neftali Feliz, Rangers
8. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
9. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
10. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks
11. Huston Street, Rockies
12. Jordan Walden, Angels
13. John Axford, Brewers
14. Fernando Salas, Cardinals
15. Chris Perez, Indians
16. Jose Valverde, Tigers
17. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates
18. Ryan Madson, Phillies
19. Kyle Farnsworth, Rays
20. Drew Storen, Nationals
21. Andrew Bailey, Athletics
22. Sergio Santos, White Sox
23. Francisco Cordero, Reds
24. Matt Capps, Twins
25. Mark Melancon, Astros
Last ones out: Aaron Crow, Royals; Kevin Gregg, Orioles; Brandon League, Mariners

Disabled list: Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers; David Aardsma, Mariners; Brad Lidge, Phillies; Joe Nathan, Twins; Vicente Padilla, Dodgers; Brandon Lyon, Astros

Fantasy baseball: Updated 2011 batter rankings

2011-05-27T20:05:00.000-04:00

Asdrubal Cabrera is ranked above Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez at shortstop.

Shin-Soo is barely a starting outfielder in a 12-team league, and Michael Brantley has been much more productive.

And we've only mentioned Indians heading into our first breakdown of the top position players in fantasy baseball.

There are plenty of other ups and downs ahead, but we just ask that you hold your applause until the end.

A quick disclaimer before we get to the rankings: Players on the disabled list at the time of the rankings are not considered. Players are ranked at each position at which they are eligible, according to ESPN.com's criteria (hence the frequent Martin Prado mentions, along with Jose Bautista leading the way at both third base and the outfield).

Let's start a little controversy:

CATCHERS
1. Victor Martinez, Tigers
2. Russell Martin, Yankees
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Alex Avila, Tigers
5. Matt Wieters, Orioles
6. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
7. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
8. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays
9. Carlos Santana, Indians
10. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
11. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
12. John Buck, Marlins
Disabled list: Buster Posey, Giants; Nick Hundley, Padres; Geovany Soto, Cubs; Joe Mauer, Twins

FIRST BASEMEN
1. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
2. Joey Votto, Reds
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. Lance Berkman, Cardinals
6. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
7. Mark Teixeira, Yankees
8. Paul Konerko, White Sox
9. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
10. Michael Young, Rangers
11. Ryan Howard, Phillies
12. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
DL: Ike Davis, Mets; Adam Lind, Blue Jays; Kendry Morales, Angels

SECOND BASEMEN
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
4. Martin Prado, Braves
5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
7. Neil Walker, Pirates
8. Ben Zobrist, Rays
9. Darwin Barney, Cubs
10. Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks
11. Chase Utley, Phillies
12. Maicer Izturis, Angels
DL: Brian Roberts, Orioles; Howard Kendrick, Angels

SHORTSTOPS
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Starlin Castro, Cubs
5. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
6. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
7. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
8. Darwin Barney, Cubs
9. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
10. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
11. Yunel Escobar, Blue Jays
12. Maicer Izturis, Angels

THIRD BASEMEN
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
2. Adrian Beltre, Rangers
3. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
4. Michael Young, Rangers
5. Martin Prado, Braves
6. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
7. Placido Polanco, Phillies
8. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
9. Evan Longoria, Rays
10. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
11. Chipper Jones, Braves
12. Casey McGehee, Brewers
DL: David Wright, Mets; Pablo Sandoval, Giants; Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals; Pedro Alvarez, Pirates

DESIGNATED HITTERS
These are the players who aren't eligible anywhere else, and there are only five worth mentioning:
1. David Ortiz, Red Sox
2. Vladimir Guerrero, Orioles
3. Jim Thome, Twins
4. Hideki Matsui, Athletics
DL: Travis Hafner, Indians

OUTFIELDERS
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers
3. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
4. Matt Holliday, Cardinals
5. Lance Berkman, Cardinals
6. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
7. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
8. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
9. Jay Bruce, Reds
10. Hunter Pence, Astros
11. Curtis Granderson, Yankees
12. Drew Stubbs, Reds
13. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
14. Martin Prado, Braves
15. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
16. Mike Stanton, Marlins
17. Carl Crawford, Red Sox
18. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
19. Adam Jones, Orioles
20. Logan Morrison, Marlins
21. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
22. Nelson Cruz, Rangers
23. Grady Sizemore, Indians
24. Matt Joyce, Rays
25. Ben Zobrist, Rays
26. Alex Gordon, Royals
27. Jayson Werth, Nationals
28. Michael Brantley, Indians
29. Coco Crisp, Athletics
30. Corey Hart, Brewers
31. Johnny Damon, Rays
32. Jason Kubel, Twins
33. Carlos Beltran, Mets
34. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
35. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
36. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
DL: Shane Victorino, Phillies; Jason Heyward, Braves

Fantasy baseball: Analyzing Chase Utley's value

2011-05-24T21:25:00.000-04:00

Entering last season, Chase Utley was a top five overall choice in fantasy baseball.

This season, he gave us the possibility of being a mid-round bargain because of a knee injury we were told would wipe out the first couple months of his season.

Utley returned Monday and was 0-for-5 with a strikeout against the Reds. If you drafted him, he might have started the week on your bench, and that could be a good thing.

Utley is 32, reportedly has a chronic condition in his knee, and Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has said Utley likely won't play five times in a six-game span.

Last season, he was limited to 425 at-bats and batted .275 (18 points below his career norm) with 16 homers, 65 RBI, 75 runs, 13 steals and an .832 OPS.

If you drafted Utley expecting him to be anything close to the player who averaged 32 homers, 99 RBI and 113 runs in 2008 and '09, you almost certainly will be disappointed.

Utley was never a huge stolen-base threat. Aside from his 23-steal 2009, his next-highest total in the category was 16 in 2005. I'm going to go out on a Shaq-sized limb and say he won't be running a lot as he returns from a serious knee injury.

Utley, if he's operating at, say, 80 to 90 percent, might provide the biggest value to owners in the power department.

Second base is a deep position in 2011, but it doesn't have a ton of home-run threats. Of the second-base eligible players in ESPN.com fantasy leagues entering Tuesday, only five had hit seven or more homers. And one was the Angels' Howard Kendrick, whose career high is 10 homers. Another is the Braves' Dan Uggla, who is batting .185 and shouldn't be considered a starter in 12-team mixed leagues.

However, 11 players eligible at second had driven in at least 20 runs, and 12 had six more more steals.

All of which means Utley isn't a given to be a starter in 10- and 12-team mixed leagues.

For the time being, I'd consider him outside the top 10 at his position.

A sure sign of Utley's value plummeting: Whom would you rather have right now, Utley or the Cubs' Darwin Barney?

It's been that kind of season.

Fantasy focus: Michael Brantley

2011-05-18T20:16:00.000-04:00

Matt LaPorta was believed to be the key piece to the CC Sabathia (C.C. in his Cy Young days with the Tribe) trade with Milwaukee in 2008.

The first baseman hasn't been a bust, but he hasn't been the second coming of Jim Thome, either.

LaPorta batted .221 in 2010, his first full big-league season, and entered Wednesday's game hitting .267 with four home runs, 21 RBI and an .825 OPS for the Tribe this season. In his career, he's a .238 hitter.

Brantley, meanwhile, seems to be developing into an All-Star.

The 24-year-old is batting .302 with four homers, 19 RBI, five steals and an .816 OPS in 139 at-bats.

He's been the Tribe's best outfielder, and he's finally getting the attention of fantasy owners. He wasn't acquired until a week ago in both of the leagues in which I play, and I'm regretting ignoring him, even if outfield is the strongest position on both of my teams.

Brantley is still available in more than 41 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, and if he's on the waiver wire in yours, you should acquire him before it's too late.

He's become an every-week starter, and the guess here is he'll finish the season among the top 25 outfielders in fantasy.

In our News-Herald points league, Brantley is tied for 19th among all outfield-eligible players. However, he's ranked only No. 226 overall in ESPN's latest top 250.

I didn't rank him among the top 36 outfielders at the beginning of the month, but he certainly will crack the list when the rankings are updated.

Since April 30, Brantley, prior to Wednesday, was hitting .333 with 10 runs scored, three homers, 11 RBI and two steals in 54 at-bats. He had three homes and nine RBI in his last six contests.

The latter numbers are the most interesting from a player who was very productive in the minor leagues, but provided little power. In 2,122 at-bats down on the farm, Brantley batted .303 with 372 runs, 16 homers, 223 RBI and 163 steals.

You should be able to count on him to hit in the neighborhood of .300 and steal 20 to 25 bases. If he does that and begins to display 15-to-20 homer potential, he's a top 15 outfielder.

As it stands now, he's at least in the top 30 and should be a starter in all formats.

If you really want to feel better about the trade, Brantley is also having a better 2011 than Sabathia (3-3, 3.47 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).

(Insert complaint about the Yankees' payroll, a joke regarding CC's waistline or laugh at the Yanks entering Wednesday 5 1/2 games behind the Tribe here.)

Fantasy baseball: David Wright replacement options

2011-05-17T19:52:00.000-04:00

Add David Wright to the ever-growing list of stars having off years in 2011.

Add David Wright to the ever-growing list of stars spending significant time on the disabled list in 2011.

The Mets third baseman has a stress fracture in his lower back. He won't undergo any baseball activity for 10 days, then will be re-evaluated, and the Mets have said he doesn't need surgery.

Regardless, you might be scrambling for help at the hot corner. If so, here are four replacement options and two long-shot picks who are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com. All stats are through Monday.

-- 1. Scott Rolen, Reds (owned in 32.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): In his first four games after returning from the disabled list with a shoulder injury, Rolen batted .471 with eight hits, three runs scored and three RBI. The 36-year-old is coming off a solid 2010 (.285, 20 homers, 83 RBI and .855 OPS) and has the power you might be looking for from a corner infield position.

-- 2. Alberto Callaspo, Angels (44.4 percent): He's a good hitter (.315 this season and .282 in his career), but he won't help you at all in the power departments. Callaspo has two homers and 20 RBI this season and has never had more than 11 homers or 73 RBI. If you need a batting-average boost, though, he's a quality option. Callaspo entered Tuesday riding an eight-game hitting streak in which he was batting .394 with nine RBI.

-- 3. Chase Headley, Padres (43.6 percent): We thought he was an interesting prospect entering the season, following a 2009 and '10 in which he batted a combined .263 with averages of 12 homers, 61 RBI and 14 stolen bases. But Headley is off to a poor start in 2011 (.270, one homer, 16 RBI and three steals).

-- 4. Greg Dobbs, Marlins (3.9 percent): He certainly has the batting average (.337) and the OPS (.862) to be a starting candidate. But Dobbs has two homers and 14 RBI, and the eight-year veteran has never compiled more than 324 at-bats, 10 homers or 55 RBI in a season. The 32-year-old is a .265 hitter, which makes us think he will be lucky to keep his average above .280.

-- Desperation plays: The Royals' Wilson Betemit (23.7 percent) is batting .318 with 16 runs, 17 RBI and three steals. But the prospect-heavy Royals have had Betemit take a seat four times in the last nine games, which obviously removes him from serious consideration. ... The Indians' Jack Hannahan (15.7 percent) has four homers and 16 RBI, but is bating .245 -- 18 points above his career norm.

Fantasy baseball: Analyzing Zack Greinke's value

2011-05-10T16:56:00.000-04:00

Zack Greinke was supposed to be the ace of a pitching staff of a Brewers team many believed could win the National League Central Division.

Instead, he has pitched twice for a club that is five games under .500 (15-20) because he fractured a rib playing pickup basketball in February. (If you're the curious type, Greinke said he was going for a rebound and he fell on his side.)

In two starts, he is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and an impressive 15 strikeouts in 10 innings.

Last season was a disappointing one for the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner. In his final season with the Royals, Greinke was 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 181 Ks in 220 innings -- a stark contrast from his 2009 numbers (16-8, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 242 Ks in 229 1/3 innings).

If you own Greinke, you're starting him. But what should you expect from him the rest of the way?

Here is what we know: 1. The Brewers are taking it slowly with the 27-year-old. He has thrown 85 and 89 pitches in his first two starts this season. 2. Don't expect the 2009 Greinke -- the one who averaged 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

In his career, Greinke has a norm of 7.6 Ks per nine innings -- a figure that is inflated by his fantastic 2009. His ERA is 3.83, his WHIP 1.26, and he's seven games under .500 (61-68).

Overrated is an overused term in fantasy -- OK, in sports in general -- but we'll go ahead and say it here because it certainly applies. Greinke often is overrated.

In a 12-team league, I'd consider Greinke a No. 4 starter. He isn't among the top 30 at his position in fantasy, and he is a fringe top-40 pick.

Again, you should start him in most formats.

If you have a deep pitching staff, don't look at Greinke as a must-start. In weeks in which he's starting once, he should be anything but a given when you're selecting your lineup.

Fantasy baseball: The endless closer chronicles

2011-05-05T22:02:00.000-04:00

By my unofficial count, nine major-league teams have changed closers this season, and that doesn't count Brian Wilson beginning the season on the disabled list in San Francisco and Brandon League taking over for an injured David Aardsma in spring training.

The White Sox have gone from Matt Thornton to Sergio Santos, the Twins from Joe Nathan to Matt Capps, the Rangers from an injured Neftali Feliz to Darren Oliver, the Angels from Fernando Rodney to Jordan Walden, the Phillies from Brad Lidge to Jose Contreras to Ryan Madson, the Nationals from Sean Burnett to Drew Storen, and those wacky Cardinals have switched from Ryan Franklin to Mitchell Boggs to what we are led to believe is a committee of two (Eduardo Sanchez and Fernando Salas).

In the last two days, the Dodgers and Astros have been added to the list. And could the Blue Jays be next? Frank Francisco, who was expected to be Toronto's closer this season but was injured this spring, earned the save Wednesday, a day after Jon Rauch blew his first save of the year.

The Dodgers could turn to Vicente Padilla or Hong-Chih Kuo, and the Astros are giving the closer's job to Mark Melancon.

Let's take a quick look at the two situations:

-- Dodgers: Jonathan Broxton has been shut down with elbow pain, which might explain his 5.68 ERA, 1.89 WHIP and nine walks in 12 2/3 innings.

Don Mattingly could call on Kuo or Padilla in the ninth inning.

Padilla recorded a save on April 27 and has pitched six innings this season, with a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He hasn't been a full-time reliever since 2001, and he doesn't seem to be a better choice than Kuo, who was terrific after Broxton lost his job last season.

Kuo was 12-for-13 in save chances and posted a 1.20 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 73 strikeouts in 60 innings in 2010. He returned from the disabled list May 1 and allowed four runs in one-third of an inning. On Wednesday, he pitched a scoreless frame.

Don't be surprised if Padilla gets more opportunities early as Kuo is eased back into the bullpen. In the coming weeks, however, he should be the choice as long as he's healthy.

If that's the case, he's a top-15 closer in any format.

-- Astros: Brandon Lyon has a partial tear of his rotator cuff and biceps tendinitis. Surgery isn't required and I don't play a doctor on the Internet, but I'm guessing he will be out quite a while.

Melancon has appeared in 18 games and been effective -- a 1.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 12 Ks in 15 2/3 innings. He's in his third year and was very productive in the minor leagues (19-3, 2.79 ERA, 15 saves and 211 strikeouts in 216 innings).

He could keep the job for the rest of the season but shouldn't be considered much more than a low-end No. 2 closer in a 12-team league, if that, because of Houston's status as one of the worst teams in the National League.

Fantasy baseball: Did anyone start Francisco Liriano?

2011-05-03T23:38:00.001-04:00

Edwin Jackson threw a no-hitter for Arizona on June 26, 2010. The Diamondbacks thought so highly of him they traded him to the White Sox a month later.

Jackson is 50-54 in his career.

Juan Nieves (32-25 career) tossed a no-no for the Brewers in 1987.

Francisco Cordova (42-47 career) and Ricardo Rincon combined on a 10-inning no-hitter for the Pirates in 1997.

Bud Smith (7-8 career) had a no-hitter for the Cardinals in 2001. He pitched one more season in the big leagues.

Heck, last month, the Marlins' Anibal Sanchez (32-30 career) came within three outs of throwing his second career no-hitter.

Obviously, Francisco Liriano's no-hitter Tuesday night isn't the most unlikely we've seen. The above list was compiled looking only at each major-league team's most recent no-hitters -- not all of them.

But Liriano's was one of the momentous games many fantasy owners dread -- the ones in which the player has the best game of his career, while he is on your bench.

Prior to Tuesday's gem at the White Sox, the Twins pitcher was 1-4 with a 9.13 ERA this season.

He had pitched more than five innings once in five starts.

He had as many walks (18) as strikeouts (18) in 23 2/3 innings pitched, and he had allowed 27 hits -- good (bad?) for a 1.90 WHIP.

The Twins are scheduled to play only five games this week, making Liriano's Tuesday start his lone appearance of the week. If you left him out of your lineup, you are far from alone. (My guess is Liriano wasn't used in more than three-quarters of the leagues in which he is owned.)

Liriano has pitched effectively in two of his last three starts, dating back to a win at Baltimore on April 18, when he allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings. But in his two wins this season (April 18 and Tuesday), Liriano has a combined 11 walks and four strikeouts.

On the season, he is 2-4 with a 6.61 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and four more walks (24) than Ks (20).

Since his brilliant 2006 (12-3, 2.16 ERA), he has been extremely inconsistent. For his career, he's 40-36 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 3.4 walks per nine innings.

His best asset in terms of fantasy production is his strikeout total (587 in 581 2/3 career innings). If walks were rewarded, he'd be the Roy Halladay of the category.

Next week, Liriano is slated to start twice -- May 9 at Boston and May 15 at home vs. Toronto.

Naturally, you start him following a no-hitter, right?

Uh, no.

The Red Sox have scored 74 runs in 14 home games this year, compared to 52 in 15 road contests. Liriano's start against Toronto in a pitcher's park (Target Field) seems favorable -- until you realize Liriano is 0-2 with a 15.75 ERA and 2.38 WHIP in two starts at home this season.

I wouldn't play him -- no-hitter or not.

Fantasy baseball: Analyzing Bartolo Colon's value

2011-04-28T15:47:00.000-04:00

If you thought Bartolo Colon would look strange in a Yankees cap, you were right. He also doesn't look, uh, very slim.

Colon is listed at 6 feet, 265 pounds, which seems generous for the soon-to-be 38-year-old former Indians ace.

Prior to being signed to a minor-league deal by the Yankees, he hadn't pitched in the major leagues since 2009, when he was 3-6 with a 4.19 ERA in 12 starts for the White Sox.

Most of us laughed when the pitching-needy Yankees brought in Colon and 34-year-old Freddy Garcia (who, incidentally, is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP) prior to the season.

The plan, especially with Phil Hughes on the disabled list with arm issues, could fail miserably. For now, though, Colon has been a pleasant surprise.

So much so I've actually considered acquiring him in a 14-team league in which I compete.

The oversized right-hander is available in almost 87 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, and he has 26 strikeouts in 26 innings, along with a 2.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Since being moved into the starting rotation, he is 2-0 in two starts, allowing three runs in 14 2/3 innings (1.84 ERA) with three walks and 13 Ks.

If you're desperate for pitching, Colon is worth a look for two reasons: 1. He should help you in strikeouts and not kill your ERA; 2. He should get enough run support to win his share of games. (Or is that three reasons?)

Don't expect much more than a No. 5 or 6 starter in deep mixed leagues. Since he was 21-8 for the Angels in 2005, Colon has all of 16 wins in six years.

But he is, at the very least, intriguing.

That is one of many things from the first month of the 2011 season I never thought I would write (along with "it might be time to bench Carlos Gonzalez," "Hanley Ramirez currently isn't among the top six shortstops in fantasy" and "I really wish I had made a play for Lance Berkman on the waiver wire.")

Fantasy baseball: Start or sit -- Shin-Soo Choo

2011-04-25T23:32:00.000-04:00

We expected a relieved Shin-Soo Choo would be even more productive this season.

Freed from a two-year military obligation in his native South Korea after leading his country to a gold medal in the Asian Games last offseason, we had Choo ranked as the No. 7 outfielder and No. 23 player overall in fantasy baseball entering 2011.

Thus far, he's been more Russell Branyan -- minus the power -- than Shin-Soo Choo.

Choo is batting .207 with 10 runs, two home runs, four stolen bases and a .569 OPS in 82 at-bats for the Tribe. Worse, he has struck out 22 times, an average of one K per 3.7 at-bats that is similar to his 2009 rate.

That season, Choo struck out 151 times in 583 at-bats. But he also batted .300 with 20 homers, 86 RBI and 22 steals.

In 2010, he cut his Ks down to 118, averaging one per 4.7 at-bats, and had his best season. He hit .300 with career-high totals of 22 homers, 90 RBI and 22 steals.

Obviously, you're worried, especially if you play in a points league that deducts for strikeouts. In our News-Herald points league -- in which strikeouts are minus-1 -- Choo has scored all of 37 points in 21 games, ranking in a tie for 59th place among outfielders.

So should you bench him?

Of course not.

I would give Choo at least a couple of weeks before relegating him to a reserve role.

In 2009 and '10, one of his best traits was his consistency. In that span, he batted .300 both years and had norms of 21 homers, 88 RBI, 22 steals and an .884 OPS. His batting average each season was the same, and his totals in every other major category increased just a bit from 2009 to '10. Choo's home runs increased by two, his runs scored by six, RBI by four, steals by one and his OPS two points (from .883 to .885).

He will hit, and it should be soon.

If you're more pessimistic, consider Choo has an RBI in four of the Indians' last six games and a hit in nine of his last 11. In the latter span, he has eight RBI and four steals.

Take a cue from Eric Wedge and stay the course. Grind it out. Be patient.

You get the idea.

Fantasy baseball: Start or sit -- Hanley Ramirez

2011-04-21T19:19:00.000-04:00

There is no shortage of struggling stars this season.

Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, David Wright ... how long do you have?

The biggest in my mind: Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez.

He was the No. 2 overall choice in many fantasy leagues, and entering Thursday, he had rewarded owners by hitting .235 with no home runs, six RBI and a .674 OPS.

If you're among the many worried about Ramirez's slow start, a word of advice: Don't. At least not yet.

Ramirez wasn't great in April last season, either -- a .279 average with two homers, seven RBI and two steals in 86 at-bats. He finished the year batting .300 with 92 runs, 21 homers, 76 RBI and 32 steals.

In his last six games prior to Thursday, Ramirez was batting .333 (6-for-18) with four RBI.

If there is a reason to be concerned, it's Ramirez's drop in the power categories.

He averaged 31 homers in 2007 and '08. In 2009, his homer total dropped to 24, but he drove in a career-high 106 runs.

Last season, his homers were down again (21, his lowest total since his rookie season of 2006), and he drove in fewer than 80 runs for the second time in three years.

You should be confident Ramirez will hit for average, score more than 90 runs and steal 30 to 35 bases. That makes him a must-start in fantasy, especially at shortstop.

Will he wind up being worth the No. 2 pick in the draft? If he finishes with 15 homers and 75 RBI, no.

That will affect Ramirez's draft-day value in 2012. Until then, start him and hope the power drop is because of a bad three weeks, not a sign of things to come.

Fantasy baseball: Joe Mauer replacement options

2011-04-19T23:18:00.000-04:00

Twins general manager Bill Smith has said he doesn't think Joe Mauer's stay on the disabled list because of an illness and injury will be long term.

The Twins' manager, Ron Gardenhire, had this to say Sunday about the team's $184 million catcher: "I think he's lost 15 or 20 pounds. He's sick."

If that weren't discouraging enough, Mauer's viral infection, which hospitalized him last Thursday, may or may not be contributing to leg weakness.

He could be back by the end of the month. He could be a second or third-round fantasy pick you wish you had back. If the latter scenario is the case, now is the time to explore the waiver wire.

Here are six options at catcher who are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com, ranked according to value:

1. Nick Hundley, Padres (owned in 38.6 percent of the ESPN.com leagues): He is hitting .340 with three home runs, nine RBI, 10 runs scored and 14 strikeouts in 50 at-bats. He won't keep his average in the .300 range (Hundley is a career .248 hitter), but he should hit for power. In 579 at-bats since 2009 (roughly one full season), Hundley has 19 homers and 82 RBI.

2. John Buck, Marlins (5.9 percent): His numbers won't get your attention (.228, one homer, nine RBI, .653 OPS), but his 2010 will. Last season, Buck batted .281 with 20 homers and 66 RBI. The .281 average is 38 points above his career norm, and the RBI total was 16 better than his previous best. Like Hundley, he's a decent power option (91 homers and 333 RBI in 2,379 career at-bats).

3. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays (44.1 percent): Note to self: Always start Arencibia on opening day. Last year, he had two homers and three RBI in his major-league debut, then had one RBI the rest of the season (to be fair, he had 35 at-bats on the year). This season, Arencibia had two homers and five RBI in his first game, and has one RBI since. Still, he's batting .286 with a .919 OPS and is believed to (cue Jay Bilas) have huge upside.

4. Alex Avila, Tigers (10.4 percent): Prior to Tuesday's game, he was hitting .279 with three homers, nine RBI, six runs and an .875 OPS in 43 at-bats. The 24-year-old was a fifth-round pick of the Tigers in 2008, and he has produced in limited action in the big leagues (15 homers and 54 RBI in 398 at-bats). A concern: Avila is a career .241 hitter who doesn't have overwhelming minor-league numbers (.280, 13 homers, 77 RBI, 73 runs and a .796 OPS in 542 at-bats).

5. Chris Iannetta, Rockies (16.8 percent): We know he has power, but it would be nice if he did something else. In 2008 and '09, Iannetta had a combined 622 at-bats and had 34 homers, 117 RBI and 91 runs. He also hit .248 with a ridiculous 167 Ks. Last season, Iannetta had only 188 at-bats, and this year, he's off to an unimpressive start (.211 with two homers, seven RBI and 13 Ks in 38 at-bats prior to Tuesday). He's better suited as an NL-only option.

6. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox (2.6 percent): Mr. Personality was pretty effective in 2009, when he batted .300 with 13 homers. Last season, he slipped to .270 with nine homers, 56 RBI and a .688 OPS. This year, he is hitting .255 with no homers, seven RBI, four runs and a .590 OPS. He should be an option strictly in AL-only leagues or if you're really desperate to acquire a 34-year-old who doesn't really help you in any category.

Fantasy baseball: Grady Sizemore update

2011-04-17T23:30:00.000-04:00

The easy thing to say after Grady Sizemore's sensational debut on Sunday is to start him and not think twice.

There are two dilemmas with Sizemore from a fantasy perspective, however.

1. Because of how far he fell on draft day, a decent amount of owners might have selected Sizemore as their fourth outfielder.

An example: In The News-Herald league, which includes at least a handful of Indians fans, I selected Sizemore as my No. 4 outfielder at the end of Round 13 (No. 156 overall). If that seems way too low, it probably was, but Sizemore went even later in a 14-team league in which I compete (another league dominated by Tribe fans).

Thus, my N-H team has Ryan Braun, Shin-Soo Choo and the Diamondbacks' Chris Young in the outfield. Sizemore isn't cracking that group. I could play him in the utility spot, but I also have David Ortiz, leaving me to play the matchup game each week between the two.

2. The Indians likely will give the three-time All-Star at least a day off per week to rest his surgically repaired left knee. If the Tribe plays six games in a week and you have, say, Ortiz or a pretty good third outfielder who is scheduled to play seven, you probably will be tempted to bench Sizemore.

All good feelings from Sunday aside, what should we expect from Sizemore?

In 2009 and '10, he batted a combined .239. In 564 at-bats in that span (roughly one full season), he had 88 runs, 18 homers, 77 RBI and 17 steals.

From 2005 to '08, he batted a combined .281 and averaged 116 runs, 27 homers, 81 RBI and 29 steals.

Sizemore seems to be healthy now, but we shouldn't anticipate a return to 2008, when he had 33 homers, 90 RBI, 38 steals and 101 runs. We also shouldn't expect him to hit .248, as he did in 2009, or .211, as he did in 128 at-bats last season.

The logical answer: Play the matchup game with Sizemore. If he's playing six games in a week and you have three quality outfielders and a productive DH, it's OK to sit him.

If he's playing seven games, as he is in Week 3, start him.

(Unless you are like me and you're deciding between Sizemore and Ortiz, whose Red Sox are also scheduled to play seven games. I think I'll flip a coin.)

Fantasy baseball: Josh Hamilton replacement options

2011-04-14T20:13:00.000-04:00

We're in Week 2 and we have our first major injury.

I think we can all agree that head-first slides should be abolished. As should players injured in such slides throwing their third-base coach under the bus.

Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton fractured his right arm Tuesday while trying to tag up from third base on a short foul ball.

After the game, and the next day, Hamilton said it was a "stupid play" and his third-base coach, Dave Anderson, was "a little too aggressive."

What he didn't say: "I apologize to the idiot News-Herald blogger who ranked me sixth overall heading into the season. The dummy thought I could stay healthy and not slide recklessly."

Moving forward, the pickings on the waiver wire are pretty slim. Here are five outfielders available in between 59 and 97 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com who could prove to be useful during Hamilton's 6-to-8-week absence:

-- 1. Marlon Byrd, Cubs (owned in 41.1 percent of the ESPN leagues): He is batting .353 with 10 runs scored, four RBI and an .848 OPS in 51 at-bats. Prior to going 0-for-5 Wednesday, Byrd had compiled at least two hits in six of his last seven games.

He also has a track record of success. He batted .293 with 12 homers, 66 RBI and 84 runs last season. With Texas in 2009, he hit .283 with 20 homers and 89 RBI. Consider him a mid-level No. 3 outfielder in 12-team mixed leagues.

-- 2. Jonny Gomes, Reds (33 percent): He has three homers, 10 RBI and seven runs in 33 at-bats. In his last five games, he's batting .389 with seven RBI.

His stats last season were respectable (.266, 18 homers, 86 RBI), but look a little deeper and you'll realize Gomes was productive prior to the All-Star break (.277, 11 homers, 60 RBI) and dismal after it (.253, seven homers, 26 RBI). If Gomes' stats are similar this year, you might be able to have one very good outfielder -- Gomes in the first half and Hamilton in the second.

-- 3. Sam Fuld, Rays (34.4 percent): He has seemingly come out of nowhere to hit .313 with five runs and six steals in 32 at-bats prior to Thursday. Because of that, you would think he's a prospect, but Fuld is 29 and has racked up 2,281 at-bats in the minors.

He played with the Cubs in 2007, '09 and '10 (he had a combined 131 at-bats in that span), and he likely won't help you at all in the power department. In the minors, Fuld batted .285 with a .777 OPS, 24 homers, 218 RBI, 106 steals and 404 runs in the 2,281 at-bats. If you need a steals boost, he's a decent option, but don't be surprised if that's the only area in which he gives you significant help.

-- 4. Jeff Francoeur, Royals (8.3 percent): He entered Kansas City's Thursday game batting .292 with eight runs, a homer and eight RBI in 48 at-bats. He had two or more hits in five of his last nine games.

Francoeur seemed to have the makings of a future fantasy stud when he averaged 24 homers and 104 RBI with the Braves in 2006 and '07, but he had norms of 12 homers and 71 RBI in the three years that followed. Like Gomes, he wasn't good after the All-Star break last season (eight homers and 43 RBI before the break; .242 with five homers and 23 RBI after the break). He's a much better fit as a part-time fantasy player than an every-week starter.

-- 5. Michael Brantley, Indians (3.1 percent): Yes, the Indians are off to an encouraging start, and yes, Brantley is batting .311 with six RBI and two steals.

The bad: He's a career .269 hitter who has three homers and 39 RBI in 454 at-bats. He should help you in steals and possibly runs scored, but probably won't be an asset in batting average, homers and RBI. In 2,122 at-bats in the minors, Brantley had a .303 average, 16 homers, 223 RBI, 163 steals and a .765 OPS.