The Twins are pinning their hopes on Joe Nathan. Thankfully, we don't have to do the same.

Nathan -- who leads the major leagues with 246 saves the last six seasons -- has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. More than likely, he'll have Tommy John surgery that will end his season and put the start of his 2011 campaign in jeopardy.

Nathan, however, isn't ready to give up. And neither are the Twins, who are moving into a new ballpark and approaching a $100 million payroll.

Nathan plans to test his injured elbow Saturday or Sunday and make a decision soon thereafter. By the weekend, we should know if the closer -- who, if healthy, would have been ranked second to Mariano Rivera in the rankings that follow -- will be an option on draft day.

The Twins -- who apparently are more optimistic than the doctors who have evaluated their top reliever -- haven't unveiled a backup plan should Nathan be forced to miss the season. Said Manager Ron Gardenhire: "To develop a closer, it's impossible."

At this point, we have to assume Nathan isn't an option on draft day. The best bets to fill in as Minnesota's closer seem to be Jon Rauch, a 31-year-old who saved a combined 18 games in 24 chances for Washington and Arizona in 2008, and Matt Guerrier, a 31-year-old who was 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA as a setup man for the Twins last season.

The early guess here is Rauch will be the closer, but since even starting pitcher Francisco Liriano's name has been mentioned, your pick might be as good as mine.

All of which is why Rauch is ranked last in the top 30 below. Until we know the Twins' plans -- and right now, even they don't -- Minnesota's top reliever should be the last of the 30 closers selected.

Two more quick injury notes before we get to the rankings:

-- The Tribe's Kerry Wood, who has been sidelined by a sore right lat, played catch Wednesday and seems to be fine. His value could increase in late July, should the Tribe trade him to a closer-needy contender.

-- Athletics closer Andrew Bailey has been shut down for 5 to 7 days with tennis elbow. He's optimistic he should be ready for opening day, but this is enough of a concern to drop the 25-year-old below the likes of Huston Street and Heath Bell.

On to the rankings:

Rank, player: IP, W-L, ERA, K, SV-Opp.
1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: 66.1, 3-3, 1.76, 72, 44-46
2. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: 76, 7-2, 2.61, 114, 36-42
3. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: 68, 1-1, 1.85, 76, 38-41
4. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: 68, 3-6, 3.71, 73, 35-42
5. Huston Street, Rockies: 61.2, 4-1, 3.07, 70, 35-37
6. Heath Bell, Padres: 69.2, 6-4, 2.71, 79, 42-48
7. Andrew Bailey, Athletics: 83.1, 6-3, 1.84, 91, 26-30
8. Joakim Soria, Royals: 53, 3-2, 2.21, 69, 30-33
9. Francisco Cordero, Reds: 66.2, 2-6, 2.16, 58, 39-43
10. Jose Valverde, Tigers: 54, 3-2, 1.83, 48, 37-41
11. David Aardsma, Mariners: 71.1, 3-6, 2.52, 80, 38-42
12. Carlos Marmol, Cubs: 74, 2-4, 3.41, 93, 15-19
13. Brian Wilson, SF: 72.1, 5-6, 2.74, 83, 38-45
14. Brian Fuentes, LAA: 55, 1-5, 3.93, 46, 48-55
15. Billy Wagner, Braves: 15.2, 1-1, 1.72, 26, 0-0
16. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals: 61, 4-3, 1.92, 44, 38-43
17. Trevor Hoffman, Brewers: 54, 3-2, 1.83, 48, 37-41
18. Bobby Jenks, White Sox: 53.1, 3-4, 3.71, 49, 29-35
19. Rafael Soriano, Rays: 75.2, 1-6, 2.97, 102, 27-31
20. Frank Francisco, Rangers: 49.1, 2-3, 3.83, 57, 25-29
21. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: 52, 2-2, 3.63, 45, 24-29
22. Brad Lidge, Phillies: 58.2, 0-8, 7.21, 61, 31-42
23. Kerry Wood, Indians: 55, 3-3, 4.25, 63, 20-26
24. Leo Nunez, Marlins: 68.2, 4-6, 4.06, 60, 26-33
25. Mike Gonzalez, Orioles: 74.1, 5-4, 2.42, 90, 10-17
26. Matt Capps, Nationals: 54.1, 4-8, 5.80, 46, 27-32
27. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays: 57.2, 7-3, 2.50, 56, 11-14
28. Brandon Lyon, Astros: 78.2, 6-5, 2.86, 57, 3-6
29. Octavio Dotel, Pirates: 62.1, 3-3, 3.32, 75, 0-3
30. Jon Rauch, Twins: 70, 7-3, 3.60, 49, 2-5

Preseason top 100 players (6): Rivera (61), Nathan (67), Broxton (68), Papelbon (73), Rodriguez (78), Street (90). NOTE: The top 100 will be updated next week. Nathan was ranked in the pre-spring training top 100 before his injury was revealed.

Short hops
The ageless Rivera has had an ERA below 2.00 in six of his last seven seasons. ... Papelbon, who has a 1.84 career ERA, has saved 35 games or more in each of his last four years. ... Rodriguez averaged 49 saves from 2005-08 before his mediocre debut season with the Mets. ... The Giants' Wilson has averaged 40 saves the last two years. ... The Reds' Cordero has norms of 39 saves and 74 strikeouts the last three seasons. ... Valverde had 91 combined saves in 2007 and '08. ... Jenks averaged 41 saves in that same span. ... Wagner averaged 35 saves from 2004 to '07. ... The Phillies' Lidge was perfect in 2008 (41-for-41 in save situations), but awful in both 2007 and '09. ... Give Lyon a slight edge over the hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom for the Astros' closing job. Lyon, however, has been bothered by a sore shoulder. Lindstrom saved 15 games in 17 chances for Florida in 2009. Lyon had 26 saves in 31 chances with Arizona in 2008.

NOTE: Statistics are from the 2009 season. ... Positions listed are according to the depth charts at mlb.com.

THIS WEEK: Outfielders, Tuesday; relievers, today; starting pitchers, Friday

LAST WEEK: Third baseman, March 8; designated hitters, March 9; shortstops, March 11

TWO WEEKS AGO: Catchers, March 2; first baseman, March 4; second baseman, March 5