It wouldn't be the first day of the fantasy baseball season if we didn't have closer drama. And we're not referring to John Axford's less-than-ideal start to the season.

Seattle's David Aardsma, Oakland's Andrew Bailey, Toronto's Frank Francisco, Philadelphia's Brad Lidge and our personal favorite, San Francisco's Brian Wilson, all opened the season on the disabled list.

As usual, owners in 5x5 roto leagues scrambled in the past few days to find replacements -- lending even more credence to the It's Better to Punt Saves on Draft Day Theory.

Because of baseball's midweek start this year, Week 1 will last through next week in most leagues, thus the injuries to Francisco (chest and shoulder) and Wilson (oblique) aren't of much concern. Both could be back as soon as next week, with Jon Rauch serving as Francisco's replacement and Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 70 strikeouts in 62 innings last season) the most likely candidate to get saves in Wilson's absence.

If you're looking for a longer-term replacement at closer, the other three teams have much more volatile situations.

Lidge could miss as much as two months because of a posterior rotator cuff strain, and Aardsma is expected to be out until May with a hip problem. The A's haven't give a return date for Bailey, who has a forearm injury, but he likely won't be back for at least a couple of weeks.

All of which brings us to our ranking of the three replacement closers:

1. Jose Contreras, Phillies: He was 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 57 Ks in 56 2/3 innings last season. Lidge hasn't exactly been a model of stability the last two seasons, so we wouldn't be surprised if Contreras has the job for longer than a couple of months this year.

2. Brian Fuentes, Athletics: He had 24 saves, a 2.81 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with the Angels and Twins last season, and he saved 48 games the year before in Los Angeles. He should be a reliable source of saves until the injury-prone Bailey returns.

3. Brandon League, Mariners: He might have the job longer than Fuentes, but he's much less of a sure thing after a 2010 in which he was 9-7, but blew half of his 12 save opportunities and had only 56 Ks in 79 innings. League has eight saves in seven big-league seasons.

One more quick note on closers: Owners who are relying on Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel and the Angels' Fernando Rodney had to be encouraged by Thursday's games. We know it's early, but neither was guaranteed the job in camp, and both struck out a pair of batters to pick up the save Thursday. Kimbrel, who now has 42 Ks in 21 2/3 innings in his young career, could be a top-10 reliever by season's end.

The Twins are pinning their hopes on Joe Nathan. Thankfully, we don't have to do the same.

Nathan -- who leads the major leagues with 246 saves the last six seasons -- has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. More than likely, he'll have Tommy John surgery that will end his season and put the start of his 2011 campaign in jeopardy.

Nathan, however, isn't ready to give up. And neither are the Twins, who are moving into a new ballpark and approaching a $100 million payroll.

Nathan plans to test his injured elbow Saturday or Sunday and make a decision soon thereafter. By the weekend, we should know if the closer -- who, if healthy, would have been ranked second to Mariano Rivera in the rankings that follow -- will be an option on draft day.

The Twins -- who apparently are more optimistic than the doctors who have evaluated their top reliever -- haven't unveiled a backup plan should Nathan be forced to miss the season. Said Manager Ron Gardenhire: "To develop a closer, it's impossible."

At this point, we have to assume Nathan isn't an option on draft day. The best bets to fill in as Minnesota's closer seem to be Jon Rauch, a 31-year-old who saved a combined 18 games in 24 chances for Washington and Arizona in 2008, and Matt Guerrier, a 31-year-old who was 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA as a setup man for the Twins last season.

The early guess here is Rauch will be the closer, but since even starting pitcher Francisco Liriano's name has been mentioned, your pick might be as good as mine.

All of which is why Rauch is ranked last in the top 30 below. Until we know the Twins' plans -- and right now, even they don't -- Minnesota's top reliever should be the last of the 30 closers selected.

Two more quick injury notes before we get to the rankings:

-- The Tribe's Kerry Wood, who has been sidelined by a sore right lat, played catch Wednesday and seems to be fine. His value could increase in late July, should the Tribe trade him to a closer-needy contender.

-- Athletics closer Andrew Bailey has been shut down for 5 to 7 days with tennis elbow. He's optimistic he should be ready for opening day, but this is enough of a concern to drop the 25-year-old below the likes of Huston Street and Heath Bell.

On to the rankings:

Rank, player: IP, W-L, ERA, K, SV-Opp.
1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: 66.1, 3-3, 1.76, 72, 44-46
2. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: 76, 7-2, 2.61, 114, 36-42
3. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: 68, 1-1, 1.85, 76, 38-41
4. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: 68, 3-6, 3.71, 73, 35-42
5. Huston Street, Rockies: 61.2, 4-1, 3.07, 70, 35-37
6. Heath Bell, Padres: 69.2, 6-4, 2.71, 79, 42-48
7. Andrew Bailey, Athletics: 83.1, 6-3, 1.84, 91, 26-30
8. Joakim Soria, Royals: 53, 3-2, 2.21, 69, 30-33
9. Francisco Cordero, Reds: 66.2, 2-6, 2.16, 58, 39-43
10. Jose Valverde, Tigers: 54, 3-2, 1.83, 48, 37-41
11. David Aardsma, Mariners: 71.1, 3-6, 2.52, 80, 38-42
12. Carlos Marmol, Cubs: 74, 2-4, 3.41, 93, 15-19
13. Brian Wilson, SF: 72.1, 5-6, 2.74, 83, 38-45
14. Brian Fuentes, LAA: 55, 1-5, 3.93, 46, 48-55
15. Billy Wagner, Braves: 15.2, 1-1, 1.72, 26, 0-0
16. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals: 61, 4-3, 1.92, 44, 38-43
17. Trevor Hoffman, Brewers: 54, 3-2, 1.83, 48, 37-41
18. Bobby Jenks, White Sox: 53.1, 3-4, 3.71, 49, 29-35
19. Rafael Soriano, Rays: 75.2, 1-6, 2.97, 102, 27-31
20. Frank Francisco, Rangers: 49.1, 2-3, 3.83, 57, 25-29
21. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: 52, 2-2, 3.63, 45, 24-29
22. Brad Lidge, Phillies: 58.2, 0-8, 7.21, 61, 31-42
23. Kerry Wood, Indians: 55, 3-3, 4.25, 63, 20-26
24. Leo Nunez, Marlins: 68.2, 4-6, 4.06, 60, 26-33
25. Mike Gonzalez, Orioles: 74.1, 5-4, 2.42, 90, 10-17
26. Matt Capps, Nationals: 54.1, 4-8, 5.80, 46, 27-32
27. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays: 57.2, 7-3, 2.50, 56, 11-14
28. Brandon Lyon, Astros: 78.2, 6-5, 2.86, 57, 3-6
29. Octavio Dotel, Pirates: 62.1, 3-3, 3.32, 75, 0-3
30. Jon Rauch, Twins: 70, 7-3, 3.60, 49, 2-5

Preseason top 100 players (6): Rivera (61), Nathan (67), Broxton (68), Papelbon (73), Rodriguez (78), Street (90). NOTE: The top 100 will be updated next week. Nathan was ranked in the pre-spring training top 100 before his injury was revealed.

Short hops
The ageless Rivera has had an ERA below 2.00 in six of his last seven seasons. ... Papelbon, who has a 1.84 career ERA, has saved 35 games or more in each of his last four years. ... Rodriguez averaged 49 saves from 2005-08 before his mediocre debut season with the Mets. ... The Giants' Wilson has averaged 40 saves the last two years. ... The Reds' Cordero has norms of 39 saves and 74 strikeouts the last three seasons. ... Valverde had 91 combined saves in 2007 and '08. ... Jenks averaged 41 saves in that same span. ... Wagner averaged 35 saves from 2004 to '07. ... The Phillies' Lidge was perfect in 2008 (41-for-41 in save situations), but awful in both 2007 and '09. ... Give Lyon a slight edge over the hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom for the Astros' closing job. Lyon, however, has been bothered by a sore shoulder. Lindstrom saved 15 games in 17 chances for Florida in 2009. Lyon had 26 saves in 31 chances with Arizona in 2008.

NOTE: Statistics are from the 2009 season. ... Positions listed are according to the depth charts at mlb.com.

THIS WEEK: Outfielders, Tuesday; relievers, today; starting pitchers, Friday

LAST WEEK: Third baseman, March 8; designated hitters, March 9; shortstops, March 11

TWO WEEKS AGO: Catchers, March 2; first baseman, March 4; second baseman, March 5

This week, it's more of a six-pack -- don't worry, there's no charge, though I do ask that you refrain from imbibing until you view one of the following: an uncomfortable Eric Wedge expression or a disturbing post-basket look from Kobe Bryant.

Our weekly look at three players who are available in a majority of the leagues on ESPN.com and should be an asset in deeper category leagues (all statistics are through Monday):

-- J.A. Happ, SP, Phillies (owned in 11.1 percent of the ESPN leagues): The 26-year-old lefty was 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA prior to Tuesday night's start against the Mets. He made 12 relief appearances before earning three starts, and he was 2-0 with a 2.46 ERA in 18 1/3 innings in the latter role entering Tuesday. If you're in one of those goofy 5x5 category leagues in which you have to start a handful of relievers, he's even more valuable because you likely can play him at reliever even though he starts. Tuesday was only his ninth career start, so you have to expect the hitters to catch up with him, but Happ will help you in strikeouts (he had 545 in 528 innings in the minor leagues) and he pitches for one of baseball's best teams.


-- Jose Guillen, OF, Royals (9.2 percent): I stumbled upon Guillen's low ownership rate while researching Monday's blog, and I still don't get it. His stats are mediocre (.255, six homers, 25 RBI), but he's a power hitter who is capable of batting .270 with 20-plus home runs and 90 RBI. In 2007, he hit .290 with 23 homers and 99 RBI, and he had 20 homers and 97 RBI last season. If this was a real clubhouse, then I can see why you wouldn't want to take the risk. Otherwise, Guillen is an asset as a No. 3 outfielder in mixed leagues.

-- A quartet of closers: Ryan Madson, Phillies; Andrew Bailey, Athletics; Randy Choate, Rays; and Mike MacDougal, Nationals. The closer's role continues to be fantasy baseball's most volatile, as the four are their teams' second, third, third and fourth choices, respectively, to finish games.

A quick breakdown of each, in order of current value:

1. Madson (owned in 4.8 percent of the ESPN leagues): He won't hold this job long, but until Brad Lidge returns from a 15-day stay on the disabled list because of a sprained knee, Madson has considerable value in category leagues. He has 31 strikeouts and a 2.22 ERA in 28 2/3 innings, and he should get a couple of save opportunities per week playing for Philly.

2. Bailey (31.0 percent): He's blown three saves in eight chances, but is 3-for-3 in June, throwing five scoreless innings and striking out six in that span. The rookie has 44 K's in 37 1/3 innings, and he's 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA. If you need someone for the rest of the season, he's the best of the four.

3. Choate (2.3 percent): He's recorded three of the five saves since Troy Percival was injured, and he seems to be the Rays' best option. The 33-year-old hasn't pitched more than 16 major-league innings in a season since 2004, so don't expect the second coming of Mariano Rivera, but Choate does have value in AL-only and deep category leagues. A few more words of caution: His three saves have been of the one-, two- and one-out varieties, meaning he's clearly not the runaway winner in a competition that's even less compelling than the San Francisco 49ers' quarterback race.

4. MacDougal (1.7): You mean only 1.7 percent of you have jumped at the chance to acquire MacDougal on the waiver wire? Joel Hanrahan has lost the closer's job for the second time since April, giving the role to a 32-year-old who saved 27 games for the Royals in 2003. Since being released by the White Sox, MacDougal has had five consecutive scoreless appearances for the Nationals, which is that bullpen's equivalent of DiMaggio's hitting streak, and he could be a cheap source of saves in 12-team category leagues.

A quick reminder: Check the News-Herald's online sports section Saturday for more fantasy football draft talk, including a breakdown of who should be the No. 2 overall pick behind Adrian Peterson.

Last week, we mentioned how overrated stolen bases can be on draft day.

The same can be said for saves, but not because of the reason you might think. You can never go wrong with a stud closer, who will help you in strikeouts, ERA and (Austin Carr Master of the Obvious warning) saves.

Saves are overvalued only when the likes of Carlos Marmol, B.J. Ryan and Joel Hanrahan are selected much too early strictly because they are closers -- or in the case of Marmol, we thought they'd be closers (thanks, Lou Piniella).

In 5x5 category leagues, closers are even more valuable than stolen-base threats, but while we know the speed guys likely aren't going to hit for power, we can never be sure which closers are going to lose their jobs because of ineffectiveness or injuries.

By my rather unscientific count (I scanned the standings, then went through each team's schedule, looking at the saves recorded for each), 10 teams have switched closers this season. Seven were because of injuries -- Toronto (B.J. Ryan to Scott Downs), Kansas City (Joakim Soria to ...? More on that in a bit), Seattle (Brandon Morrow to David Aardsma and back to Morrow), Oakland (Brad Ziegler to Michael Wuertz and Andrew Bailey), Milwaukee (Carlos Villanueva to Todd Coffey to Trevor Hoffman), Houston (Jose Valderde to LaTroy Hawkins) and Pittsburgh (Matt Capps to, well, Capps; see below)

Two changed because of ineffectiveness -- St. Louis (Jason Motte to a committee to Ryan Franklin) and Colorado (Huston Street to Jason Grilli and Manny Corpas, and back to Street) -- and one (Atlanta, with Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano) prefers to rotate.

All of which leads to a waiver-wire frenzy in category leagues whenever Player X gets A. Demoted, B. Injured, C. Doesn't lose his job, but Player Y sure seems to be getting a decent amount of opportunities.

All of which leaves us scratching our heads, throwing the hammer down (picking up Player Y) and getting that weak stuff out of here (Player X), a la Austin Carr (minus the head-scratching; we're the ones who do that when we hear the same four or five catchphrases throughout a Cavs broadcast).

Let's look at five of the recent closer developments and try to determine a method to this maddening position (and you thought Eric Wedge had problems).

Kansas City: Joakim Soria, who has saved 49 games in 52 opportunities since the start of last season, is on the disabled list because of shoulder soreness. A two-week waiver-wire gem could prove to be Juan Cruz, who has a 1.88 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings this season. Cruz was 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a whopping 71 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings for the Diamondbacks last season. Cruz is an effective source of strikeouts (he has 546 K's in 529 1/3 career innings) and the Royals (with a surprising 18 wins) should give him a decent amount of save opportunities.

Houston: Jose Valverde, who had a combined 91 saves in 2007 and '08) has been on the disabled list since April 28 because of a calf injury. He's expected to return in the third week of May. LaTroy Hawkins (four saves, 2.40 ERA, 13 strikeouts in 15 innings) has been productive when called upon, but he's had only three save chances (blowing one) since Valverde went down.

Pittsburgh: Capps, who is on the DL with an elbow injury, is expected to return Tuesday. In his place, the Pirates might as well have had one of the Tribe's gas cans at the back end of the 'pen. Pittsburgh hasn't had a save since Capps recorded his fifth on April 22.

Oakland: Ziegler hasn't had a save since April 25. Since, Wuertz has two and Bailey one. Until Ziegler recovers from recent flu and asthma ailments (he says he won't be 100 percent for a couple of weeks), it's probably better to avoid any of these players unless you're desperate. Of the three, Bailey (3-0, 1.27 ERA, 24 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings) has been the best.

Washington (aka the Indians of the National League): Hanrahan lost his job to former Indian Julian Tavarez and former starter Kip Wells. The bullpen was so bad Wells was brought off the street and has been one of the Nationals' most effective relievers. His save Friday was the first of his career. Tavarez recorded his first save of the season April 29, lost the following night and has had only two holds since. For the time being, Hanrahan (who bailed out Wells on Saturday night, getting his third save in the process) might still be the best option. He's a good source of strikeouts (16 in 13 1/3 innings; 93 in 84 1/3 in 2008) and at 28, he's likely the future of Washington's bullpen. In deeper leagues, he's a risk, but the same can be said for almost anyone at the position.

Later this week, we'll have more Pick Three options, NFL draft leftovers, an audiocast on the News-Herald's Web site and a column in Saturday's editions and online. Until then, good luck and remember to thank Mom even when it's not technically her day.