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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Fantasy baseball: Start and sit for the postseason

It's the time of year for which fantasy freaks have been waiting.

What, you thought I meant football draft day?

We'll let the king of all fake sports sit idle for a couple days while we gear up for Week 23 of the baseball season, which usually marks the start of the playoffs.

Let's celebrate with a start and sit list, based mostly on players who were recently traded or returned from injuries or waivers.

All statistics are through Wednesday unless noted.

Start 'em

-- Scott Kazmir, SP, Angels: He lost his Angels debut on Wednesday, but through no fault of his own (6 1/3 innings, one run, eight strikeouts). He's 8-8 with a 5.68 ERA, but he strikes out a lot of batters (99 in 117 1/3 innings), he's now pitching for a team that leads all of baseball with a .288 batting average, and he is on pace to get two starts next week.

-- David Ortiz, DH, Boston: He's in another cold spell (3-for-18 with one RBI and five strikeouts in his last five games) and he's batting only .227 for the season, but consider the following power numbers. Since June 1, Big Papi has 21 homers and 61 RBI in 271 at-bats. He will get hot again, and I wouldn't want him on my bench when he does.

-- Jon Garland, SP, Dodgers: Another pitcher who should benefit from a trade to a better team, only in Garland's case, it's a much better team. He entered Thursday night's start against the Diamondbacks, his former team, under .500 at 8-11 with a 4.29 ERA. But he was 3-1 with a 3.89 ERA and an uncharacteristically high 26 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings in August. He won't help you in the K department (figure only one per two innings), but he should start twice next week and is worth a chance in deeper leagues.

-- David Wright, 3B, Mets: Thursday was his third game back after a scary beaning incident. For some reason, his power has fallen off (eight homers after hitting a combined 89 the previous three seasons), but you know he will hit for a high average and steal an occasional base -- goofy new helmet and all.

-- Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs: His new role -- closer -- seems to be the one he should have had all along. Since taking over for Kevin Gregg, he has four saves in as many opportunities the last two weeks. In those four save chances, Marmol threw four scoreless innings and struck out seven. In the last three years, he's fanned 286 batters in 219 innings, an average of 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings. All of which makes the Cubs' offseason choice of Gregg over Marmol all the more curious.

-- John Smoltz, SP, Cardinals: His two-game run of prosperity with the Cards ended Thursday, when he gave up four runs in six innings to the Brewers. Smoltz yielded only one run in 11 innings in his first two games with St. Louis, striking out 15 while walking only one. That was a stark contrast to his dog days in Boston -- 2-5, 8.33 ERA and 59 hits allowed in 40 innings. He's another two-start Week 23 possibility worth a look in deeper leagues in which you play more than five starting pitchers.

Sit 'em

-- Brad Penny, SP, Giants: He was great Wednesday in his Giants debut (eight shutout innings), but that shouldn't overshadow an August in which he was 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA in four games with Boston. Prior to signing with the Giants, he was 2-7 since the beginning of June, and he isn't a great source of strikeouts (91 in 139 2/3 innings this season).

-- Jim Thome, position unknown, Dodgers: Talk about a strange trade. The Dodgers -- pardon me for a moment while I state the obvious -- wouldn't be able to use a DH until the World Series, yet they acquired an American League slugger who hasn't played the field regularly since 2004. Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said Thome "will be used exclusively as a power bat off the bench." Translation: We're going to kill the fantasy value of a player who has 23 homers and 74 RBI in 345 at-bats. If you're a James Loney owner, I would worry that Thome will steal at-bats from the 25-year-old regular first baseman every three days or so, especially since Loney is 22-for-98 (.224) since August.

-- Joba Chamberlain, SP, Yankees: The Joba Rules must include a line that reads: "Like Mike Shanahan in football, we hope to drive as many fantasy owners nuts as possible." Chamberlain threw all of 35 pitches in three innings before being pulled Sunday, this after he was started on regular rest, after the Yankees initially stated he would be held out longer. In his last two starts, Chamberlain has thrown a combined seven innings, and he hasn't tossed more than 96 pitches in his last three contests. He's barely averaging more than five innings per start for the season, and with the Yankees' conservative nature with the 23-year-old, he should only be used in very big leagues in which you can still play him at reliever.

-- Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs: He had a cortisone shot in his bothersome left knee Sunday, and he returned to the lineup Thursday after sitting Wednesday. Regardless, he no longer is much of a stolen-base threat (nine in 116 games), and he's batting only .243 with a .732 OPS.

-- Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners:
He was activated from the disabled list Tuesday after, um, a testicle injury, and is 0-for-7 since returning. His season numbers aren't much better: .270, five homers, 32 RBI, 10 steals and a .674 OPS in 345 at-bats. Unless you really need a third baseman, Beltre should remain on your bench.

-- Jose Guillen, OF, Royals: This one might be more obvious than the Dodgers/DH reference. Guillen returned from the disabled list this week, only to have his knee brace cause tightness in his hamstring, forcing him to leave Wednesday's game. He's a decent source of power who is available in most leagues (nine homers and 40 RBI in 281 at-bats), but he's also a .242 hitter with a .681 OPS.

-- Nate McLouth, OF, Braves: This decision is much more difficult than Guillen. McLouth, who has already had a setback in his rehab from a hamstring injury, was expected to play in a Class A game Thursday and hopes to rejoin the Braves this weekend. He's a decent power hitter (15 homers and 56 RBI in 395 at-bats) who steals bases (17). But his average is below average (.258), and I'd be hesitant to put him in my lineup for the postseason and then have him get shut down again.

Coming Friday: One final Pick Three for the baseball season.

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Friday, August 7, 2009

Fantasy baseball: Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano and more notes

Next week, we're going to start concentrating heavily on football, but first we need to empty the baseball notebook.

-- Not so fast: Fausto Carmona, who was banished to the bottom of the Tribe's minor-league system in June, has a 2.45 ERA in two starts since returning to the Indians. Look a little further, though, and you see these stats: Carmona has four more strikeouts (seven) than walks (three) in 11 innings, and he's thrown 197 pitches (17.9 per inning) with a WHIP of 1.55 in that span.

The latter numbers are reminiscent of his prior struggles -- a two-year run in which Carmona has 21 more walks (118) than strikeouts (97) since winning 19 games in 2007. He's still owned in 53 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, but I wouldn't rush to put him in my lineup.

-- Not so fast II: Friday's trade of Carl Pavano to Minnesota does make the right-hander slightly more intriguing from a fantasy perspective. Pavano led the Tribe in wins and is going to a team that is contending in a Central Division that's weaker than the ailing Grady Sizemore's throws from center field.

Then there's this: Since finishing 5-1 in May, Pavano has started 10 games. In that span, he's 4-4 with a 5.46 ERA. He's allowed 77 hits in 62 2/3 innings, with a WHIP of 1.39. Pavano has struck out four batters or fewer in seven of the 10 starts.

He's owned in only 6.2 percent of the ESPN leagues, a number that should rise after the trade. But, like Carmona, I wouldn't start him.

Start 'em

-- Roy Oswalt, SP, Astros:
Assuming he returns Monday or Tuesday from a back injury that has sidelined him since July 28, I would reinsert him into my lineup. Since June 24, Oswalt is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings. He's allowed only 29 hits in that span, a seven-game run in which he has yet to yield more than three runs.

-- Jose Lopez, 2B, Mariners: He's owned in more than 83 percent of the ESPN leagues, but he's often used as backup. If you need power from your second baseman and aren't worried about OPS, runs scored or steals, Lopez is your guy.

In his last eight games prior to Friday, he had three home runs and 13 RBI in 31 at-bats. For the season, he's batting .278 with 15 homers and 65 RBI. The negative: His on-base percentage (.306), steals (two) and runs (45), all of which are very low for his position. Power or speed? You make the call.

-- Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox:
I've seen some goofy ESPN ownership percentages this season, but Floyd's might be Manny Ramirez on the bizarre scale. How is a 26-year-old who won 17 games last season and has been great since June owned in only 48.2 percent of the ESPN.com leagues?

If that's the case in your league, acquire Floyd and start him. Since June 1, he's 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 12 starts. He's averaged more than seven innings per start, and he's struck out 71 in 84 2/3 innings and has an outstanding 0.96 WHIP.

Sit 'em

-- Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins:
This has nothing to do with the addition of Pavano and everything to do with the former wonderkid's spiraling stats. Liriano is in danger of losing his spot in the Twins' rotation, has been bothered by a forearm injury and will have his next start skipped as he attends to a family matter. When he does return, I'd keep him and his 4-11 record and 5.63 ERA on my bench. Since winning two straight starts at the end of June, Liriano is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts.

-- Brad Penny, SP, Red Sox: John Smoltz was cut by Boston on Friday, securing Penny's spot in the rotation for the time being. Still, since beginning the season 5-1, Penny has been brutal. In his last 12 starts, he is 2-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

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Monday, July 6, 2009

Fantasy focus: John Smoltz

It might seem odd that a 42-year-old pitcher with zero wins this season is an excellent starting option this week.

Until you read the name: John Smoltz.

The career 210-game winner has yet to record his first victory as a member of the Red Sox, but that should change in Week 14 of the fantasy season.

Smoltz has started twice since being activated from the disabled list, and he's 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA. He left his last start after four innings because of a rain delay, and the Red Sox couldn't hold a 10-1 seventh-inning lead against the Orioles.

The schedule is much more favorable this week. Monday, he will face the Athletics, who rank 29th in the major leagues with a .240 batting average and 24th in runs scored (4.2). Saturday, it's the Royals, who are 25th in batting (.252) and 29th in runs (3.9).

Both starts are at home. The opposing pitchers: Monday, Smoltz will trade outs (or in the Athletics' case, hits) with Oakland's Brett Anderson (4-7, 5.45 ERA). Saturday, it's the 4-8 Gil Meche.

And you thought the Boise State football team had a favorable schedule.

Smoltz is owned in only 32 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com. If he's available in your league and you need a third or fourth starter this week, he's an ideal option.

He should also be here to stay.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-5, 8.23 ERA) is out with an injured shoulder. As I wrote in Saturday's column for the print and online editions, he likely can't be counted on for more than a month.

All of which makes Smoltz and Brad Penny (6-3, 4.67 ERA) intriguing prospects for the second half of the season. Boston's rotation has two All-Stars (Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield) and a 25-year-old future ace who has won four of his last five decisions (Jon Lester). That leaves two spots in the rotation -- one to Smoltz, who should stay there if healthy, and one to Penny, who, if Dice-K can turn his season around, likely would have the least job security.

With that depth, the Red Sox have no reason -- other than his standing on the salary scale -- to rush Dice-K back.

Penny has given up three runs or fewer in five straight starts and eight of his last nine. He's owned in only 16.3 percent of the ESPN leagues, despite his recent success and his past production (back-to-back 16-win seasons with the Dodgers in 2006 and '07).

Smoltz is the better option for the rest of the season, partly because of his tendency to strike out eight batters per nine innings, even at an age when most of us will be lucky if we can read 90 mph on a Jugs gun.

Closing numbers: Tribe outfielder Shin-Soo Choo has played in 81 games -- half of a big-league season. Multiply Choo's statistics by two and you get: 98 runs scored, 24 homers, 106 RBI, 26 stolen bases, 96 walks, a .301 batting average and an .889 OPS (OK, the latter two numbers didn't need to be multiplied, but you get the point). Depending on how much emphasis you place on steals, Choo is the Indians' best or second-best fantasy player (behind Victor Martinez), and with Grady Sizemore bothered by a bad elbow, there really is no one else in the running.

Coming attraction: Inspired by Wakefield's first real All-Star selection, we'll unveil our first-half fantasy all-stars (minus the incentive clauses).

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Monday, June 8, 2009

Fantasy baseball: Josh Hamilton and more Week 9 notes

Since the Rangers rank in the top eight among among major-league offenses in home runs (second), total bases (second), slugging percentage (second), RBI (fifth) and runs scored (eighth), you would think replacing an injured Josh Hamilton might be as simple as glancing at Texas' depth chart.

You would be wrong (but if you want to waste your time, as I did, here it is).

Hamilton, a second-round pick in many leagues after a monstrous 2008 (.304, 32 homers, 130 RBI, .901 OPS), will miss four to six weeks with a partially torn abdominal muscle. He's played in only 35 games and has been one of fantasy's bigger disappointments with a .240 average, six homers and 24 RBI.

His extended absence will mean more time for David Murphy and Andruw Jones, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration.

With Hamilton out, Murphy has been starting against right-handers. He batted .275 with 15 homers and 74 RBI as a rookie last season, but he hasn't lived up to that billing in 2009 (.259, two homers, 12 RBI). He has improved this month (.368 and two RBI), but you'd have to really need outfield help to consider him.

And you'd have to be playing in a 16-team AL-only league to consider Jones, who has decent numbers (.269, five homers, 15 RBI in 92 at-bats), but usually only starts against lefties and has only seven at-bats in June.

The playing time of the Rangers' starting center fielder (Marlon Byrd) and right fielder (Nelson Cruz) shouldn't be affected much by Hamilton being on the DL. The impressive Cruz (.291, 17 homers, 42 RBI, nine steals) is a fantasy starter, and Byrd (.299, four homers, 26 RBI, two steals) is useful strictly in AL-only leagues. Even then, he's only going to help you in batting average and possibly RBI.

If you own Hamilton and need outfield depth, the four who follow are all owned in fewer than 50 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com (ranked in order of projected effectiveness the rest of the season): 1. Jose Guillen, Royals (.255, six homers, 25 RBI, 9.5 percent ownership); 2. Jason Kubel, Twins (.304, seven homers, 31 RBI, 45.1 percent); 3. Melky Cabrera, Yankees (.304, six homers, 23 RBI, four steals, 25.9 percent); 4. Aaron Rowand, Giants (.309, six homers, 27 RBI, four steals, 22.5 percent).

Looming ...

-- John Smoltz will make his fifth (and last) minor-league rehabilitation start for the Red Sox on Thursday. Smoltz, who is coming back from 2008 shoulder surgery, is 42 and hasn't pitched in the big leagues in more than a year.

Then there's this: Smoltz has the following career numbers: 210 wins, a 3.26 ERA and 3,011 strikeouts in 3,395 innings. He was also effective before the injury ended his 2008 season in Atlanta (3-2, 2.57 ERA, 36 strikeouts in 28 innings).

Clearly, the latter paragraph is beating out the concerns from the prior graph. When Smoltz is ready to join Boston's starting rotation (warning: scoop to follow), someone has to go, and that pitcher could be Brad Penny, who's won five games.

If Smoltz is available and you play in a 10- or 12-team league, he's worth a look. Don't expect huge results -- WEEI reported Monday that the Red Sox might occasionally skip his starts to keep him healthy -- but if he gets the call twice in a week, he should be an effective play.

Penny, who is owned in 12.2 percent of ESPN leagues, has too high of an ERA (5.85) and too few strikeouts (39 in 60 innings) to be a regular fantasy starter. He is an asset, however, and a return to the National League likely would boost the fantasy value of the 31-year-old who won 16 games with the Dodgers in both 2006 and '07.

If Boston doesn't trade Penny, there's a chance Tim Wakefield (7-3, 4.50 ERA) could be moved to the bullpen, which would wreck his fantasy status faster than you can say "Spencer Pratt."

Penny or Wakefield would have to be the odd man out when Smoltz returns, since Josh Beckett and Jon Lester certainly aren't going anywhere, and Daisuke Matsuzaka's hefty contract does for him what his results do not (1-4, 7.33 ERA).

-- Brandon Webb, who has started all of one game since he was selected as one of the top two or three pitchers in almost every draft, is targeting Friday for his first throwing session on the mound. Webb expects to return from a shoulder injury before the All-Star break, which would mean you wouldn't get Arizona's ace back in your lineup until about Week 15 (July 6-12).

Webb's ownership percentage in ESPN leagues is 98.8, meaning some guys and gals out there are getting sick of holding his roster spot. If someone in your league is so foolish, take the gift and hope you get a pitcher who at least slightly resembles the player who won a combined 40 games and struck out 377 batters the previous two seasons.

Not so fast


Matt Wieters' big-league debut was hyped as the catcher's version of a young Alex Rodriguez or Ken Griffey Jr. with the Mariners.

Thus far, the Oriole has more closely resembled Kelly Shoppach. Wieters is 4-for-28 with zero RBI in eight games.

That will change. Wieters, after all, became one of MLB's top prospects because he tore up the minor leagues (.343, 32 homers, 121 RBI, 67 extra-base hits and a 1.014 OPS in 578 at-bats), and he eventually will hit in the majors.

Already, he's owned in 84.2 percent of the ESPN leagues -- a surprisingly high number when you consider Jim Thome is owned in only 81.1 and Todd Helton 74.6 -- which means he's probably starting in most leagues.

I wouldn't make that move in mixed leagues. Until Wieters has a good week, I'd play someone else -- unless your alternative is Shoppach.

Tomorrow, we'll be back with a Pick Three for the week, and Saturday we'll break down what's sure to be a very difficult decision in football drafts late this summer: Who should be drafted No. 2, after Adrian Peterson? That story will be published in print editions and on the N-H's online sports section.

Until then, good luck and remember it's OK to hope Joe Buck's new HBO show fails.

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