Blogs > N-H Fantasy Sports

News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Fantasy basketball: Analyzing Evan Turner's value

Evan Turner was the second overall pick in what appears to be a decidedly mediocre 2010 NBA draft.

That draft had John Wall and ... a lot of questions. That obviously worked in the former Buckeye's favor.

In Year 2, Turner has been a reserve in all but 14 of his 91 NBA games. He hasn't been terrific, but his primary obstacle has been Philly's depth at shooting guard and small forward.

This season, four shooting guards and small forwards on the 76ers' roster -- Andre Iguodala (34.4), Thaddeus Young (27.9), Turner (26.2) and Jodie Meeks (25.2) -- are averaging more than 25 minutes per game.

The glut, and the resulting lack of huge playing time (Turner has played more than 31 minutes twice this season), have limited Turner's fantasy value.

He's owned in only 23.8 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com. Thus, if you are among the few who play fantasy hoops, you probably don't consider Turner a starter.

I would disagree on the latter point.

Turner has played more than 25 minutes in nine of his 13 contests this season. Let's compare his per-game averages in the nine contests in which he has played more than 25 minutes, and the four games in which he hasn't:

-- Games with more than 25 minutes: 13.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 50.0 percent from the field, 75.6 percent from the free-throw line.

-- Games with 25 minutes or fewer: 3.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 33.3 percent from the field, 33.3 percent from the line.

If you need help at shooting guard or small forward (the two positions at which Turner should be eligible), know this before you acquire Turner:

He won't help you at all in 3-pointers (he has made two this season) and he's not as productive in steals as you might think (0.7 per game).

But he makes up for it with his ability to rebound (he had 11 in 29 minutes Wednesday) and his potential to help you in field-goal percentage and scoring, and not hurt you in turnovers (1.7 per game) or free-throw percentage.

Discount the 76ers' games last Saturday and Monday (Turner played 13 minutes in the former and sat out the latter because of a quad injury), and Turner has played at least 28 minutes in four consecutive games.

We know what we does with increased playing time. Wednesday, in his first game back from the quad injury, he had 20 points, 11 rebounds and two steals.

Pick him up before it's too late.

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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Fantasy basketball: Carmelo Anthony trade analysis

As a sports fan, the story grew as tiresome as the endless loop of Brett Favre updates ESPN fed us last summer.

Carmelo Anthony is headed to the Knicks! Wait, the Nets! The Lakers are interested, and they're willing to part with Andrew Bynum and his elderly knees? Well, sources say he only wants to sign an extension with the Knicks. The Nets are back in!

At last, it's over. Anthony is, indeed, a Knick. And Chris Broussard can move on to other NBA stories.

From a fantasy perspective, like fans in general, there were more losers than winners in the Knicks' deal with the Nuggets.

Anthony's value is a wash, since you depend on him for scoring, some rebounding (7.6 per game), free-throw percentage and not much else. He has another star to share the rock with in New York (Amare Stoudemire, for those who play fantasy but have no idea about real-life hoops), but Coach Mike D'Antoni has never been shy about running and gunning.

I would give Chauncey Billups' value a slight upgrade, since he should play major minutes for New York, which traded point guard Raymond Felton to Denver. Billups is a decent scorer and is a big help in 3-pointers made (2.1 per game) and free-throw percentage (92.3).

The rest: losers.

Felton, Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari are the big names headed west, and all three had been surprisingly productive under D'Antoni.

Felton was averaging 17.1 points, 9.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.6 3-pointers per game. But he joins a team that already has its point guard of the future in Ty Lawson (10.4 points, 3.7 assists, 50.1 field-goal percentage, 39.0 percent on 3s).

At best, you should expect Felton to share minutes with Lawson, which isn't good for those of us who were enjoying the former's breakout season.

The outlook isn't as grim for the 6-foot-8 Chandler and the 6-10 Gallinari, but it's not great for three reasons: Aaron Afflalo, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin.

Gallinari can play power forward, but is better suited to play the '3,' where he could take Anthony's place in the starting lineup.

Or Coach George Karl could start Chandler at the 3, Martin (13.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 1.2 steals) at the 4, Nene at center, and have Lawson or Felton be joined by Afflalo at the 2.

No matter in which direction Karl goes, the bottom line is Felton and Chandler or Felton and Gallinari could be bench players.

With Felton, Lawson, Afflalo (12.8 points, 50.2 field-goal percentage, 1.6 3s per game, 43.8 3-point percentage, 86.0 free-throw percentage) and Smith (11.2 points, 1.2 treys per game, 3.9 rebounds, 1.2 steals), the Nuggets are pretty deep in the backcourt.

That would lead us to believe Chandler and Gallinari will split time at small forward, and Gallinari could play some at power forward.

Felton averaged 38.4 minutes per game in New York, compared to 34.8 for Gallinari and 34.5 for Chandler.

All three of those totals will be reduced. By how much, we will find out in the coming weeks.

See how Karl divides his players' time this week, and if two of the three high-scoring former Knicks are reserves, they probably should be on your fantasy bench, too.

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Thursday, February 10, 2011

Fantasy basketball: The Carmelo Anthony Chronicles

You're probably tired of hearing about the latest rumored trade destination for Carmelo Anthony.

You're not alone.

We've heard 'Melo is bound for the Nets. But he wanted to play for the Knicks.

Oh wait, the Lakers are interested, and they may or may not be willing to give up Andrew Bynum and his ancient knees.

To change it up, let's look at the Anthony situation from a fantasy perspective for the few of us out there who enjoy fake hoops almost as much as the real thing.

Anthony has never been a truly elite fantasy player because he does only two things very well -- score and make free throws. He doesn't shoot for a high percentage (44.4 this season, 45.8 for his career), he doesn't rebound that well (his 7.7 average this season is 1.4 better than his career norm) and he doesn't make a lot of 3-pointers (0.7 per game for his career).

If you own Anthony, you need him to average 25 points per game and get to the free-throw line nine or 10 times per contest. Anthony's average of 24.7 points this season matches his career norm, but is 3.5 below the 28.2 he posted last season.

If he's traded to the Knicks, who have four players averaging more than 16 points per game, Anthony probably wouldn't outscore Amare Stoudemire (26.2), and his scoring average in New York might not exceed its current figure.

If Anthony is traded to the Lakers, can you see him averaging more than 21 or 22 points per game on a team with Kobe Bryant (25.4 ppg) and Pau Gasol (18.7)? Me neither.

The solution: Stay in Denver, Carmelo.

Then we can stop hearing about it. And you can maintain your fantasy value.

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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Fantasy NBA: Pick Three for Week 17

The All-Star break is over, the trade rumors are endless and the Clippers are the Clippers (Marcus Camby, consider yourself fortunate).

Let's take a quick look at three players who are available in the majority of the leagues on ESPN.com (all stats are prior to Tuesday's games):

-- Peja Stojakovic, SF, Hornets (owned in 36.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): Fantasy owners are finally starting to take notice after Stojakovic has scored in double figures in nine straight games and has hit three or more 3-pointers in five consecutive contests. After compiling miserable shooting percentages in the first three months of the season (37.3 in November, 42.1 in December and 39.5 in January), Stojakovic has been back to his old self in February. In six games this month, he is averaging 19.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals. He is shooting 49.4 percent from the field, 47.5 percent from 3-point range and 88.2 from the free-throw line in that span. Until he cools down, he's a must-start in any format.

-- Ryan Gomes, SF, Timberwolves (4.4 percent): Another small forward on a roll, Gomes is shooting 54.5 percent from the floor in four games this month. In that stretch, he's averaging 15.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, one steal and 2.5 3-pointers. He has scored in double digits in eight straight games, a span in which he is 18-for-33 from 3-point land (54.5 percent). In deeper leagues, Gomes is a valuable reserve and/or part-time starter. In daily leagues, he's worth a start or two per week.

-- Anthony Morrow, SG, SF, Warriors (33 percent): The second-year standout has been great in the two games Corey Maggette has missed because of a dislocated finger, totaling 59 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists in 93 minutes. In those contests, he was 21-for-36 from the field (58.3 percent), 8-for-15 from 3-point range (53.3) and perfect in nine attempts from the line. Once Maggette returns, your guess is as good as Don Nelson's when it comes to Golden State's backcourt/small forward rotation. Should Maggette get traded, however, Morrow would be a huge asset. Even if his minutes are limited somewhat by Maggette, Morrow will help your percentages. In his two-year career, he's shooting 48.3 percent from the field, 88.7 from the line and 46 percent on 3s.

Good luck, and happy trading.

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Thursday, February 11, 2010

Fantasy focus: Nazr Mohammed and Ty Lawson

Nazr Mohammed has never averaged in double figures and might be best known as the starting center in one of the worst NBA Finals ever.

You might remember (if you're lucky, you don't) the 2005 Finals, a season that concluded with Mohammed's Spurs defeating the Pistons in seven games. The average margin of victory for the seven contests was 14.4 points, and only one team scored 100 points -- the Pistons in a 102-71 Game 4 victory.

What do the 2005 Finals have to do with Mohammed the fantasy player? Nothing, really, other than it's nice to see the veteran center contribute something much more important than playing a small role in a championship I would only rewatch if I was forced to choose between Game 7 and an interview with Snooki and The Situation.

Mohammed is available in 98 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, a number that is every bit as confusing as the "Jersey Shore" phenomenon.

The Bobcats center has had at least 10 rebounds in five of his last seven games, and his numbers from the last six read as follows: 14.3 points, 11 rebounds, one block, 66.1 percent from the field and 70.6 percent from the free-throw line.

Some owners might be scared off by the fact Tyson Chandler is back after missing almost two months because of a foot injury. But in the two games, the oft-injured Chandler has played a total of 22 minutes and had seven points and four rebounds. Wednesday, with Chandler logging all of 12 minutes, Mohammed started and had 21 points, 20 rebounds, two steals and one block in 40 minutes.

For the season, the 12-year veteran is shooting 57.3 percent from the field and averaging 10 rebounds per 33 minutes.

Unless Chandler starts playing significant time, Mohammed -- as a center who can help you in points, rebounds and field-goal percentage -- is a starter in deeper leagues.

Don't hold the summer of 2005 against him.

-- Backup plan: Chauncey Billups owners might be among the few who have noticed the production of his protege, Nuggets rookie Ty Lawson. If you are playing Billups, who has been bothered by sprains to both ankles, and you're in a weekly league, Lawson is a must-have.

The rookie, who is owned in only 11.3 percent of the ESPN leagues, had 25 points, four assists and four rebounds when Billups missed a loss at Utah on Feb. 6. Even with Billups back, Lawson tallied 13 points, seven assists and five rebounds on Tuesday.

The latter is averaging 9.6 points in 22.5 minutes per game. He's shooting 51.2 percent from the field, 43.5 percent from 3-point range and 78.3 percent from the line.

If you're in a daily league, the choice on Lawson is more difficult because you use everyone on your roster and he doesn't play significant minutes. But he is playing enough of late (24.5 minutes in January and 24.8 this month) to make an impact.

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Thursday, February 4, 2010

Fantasy focus: Tayshaun Prince and Ryan Hollins

You might remember Tayshaun Prince as a very good defender whose defensive reach and left-handed jump shot caused many teams problems when Joe Dumars' Pistons were an intimidating bunch -- not a 16-31 team that has one fewer win than the Indiana Pacers.

Fantasy owners now recall Prince as an oft-injured shell of himself, one who has played in only 15 games this season because of back and knee injuries.

It's much too early to be overly optimistic, but Prince has shown some encouraging signs in the last five games since returning from a sore knee. He has averaged 11 points and 5.4 rebounds in that span, and in the last two, he's totaled 27 points and 17 rebounds on 12-of-26 shooting (46.2 percent). The latter percentage isn't impressive, but it's much better than Prince's season average of 41.2 percent -- 4.8 below his career norm.

Prince is available in more than 73 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com for a reason. But if you need help at forward, or if you're in a daily league in which you play everyone on your roster based on the schedule, he's worth considering.

From Bad Boy to serviceable reserve -- the 2009-10 Pistons.

-- Showing some bite: In four NBA seasons, Ryan Hollins has averaged 3.5 points and 2.1 rebounds in 10.8 minutes per game. He's also the key to the Timberwolves' resurgence.

The latter is a slight (OK, huge) exaggeration, but Minnesota (11-38) is 2-0 since Hollins was inserted into the starting lineup. In that span, the center has 35 points, six rebounds and four blocks in 60 minutes. Hollins is 13 of 19 from the floor in the two contests.

This is a bigger reach than believing "Pants on the Ground" would become a song we couldn't get out of our heads, but Hollins -- who is owned in 0.4 percent (yes, 0.4) percent of the ESPN leagues -- is worth monitoring in the next week or two.

One, he's a center, a position at which you can't have enough help. Two, he's shooting 54.1 percent from the field and, if given minutes, might help you in points and blocks.

The bad (believe it or not, Hollins has negatives): The 7-footer is averaging all of 2.9 rebounds in 17.1 minutes this season.

Again, this is a reach, but Hollins should be on your watch list.

Pants on the ground, pants on the ground ...

-- Chris Paul update: After knee surgery Thursday, the Hornets point guard will be out 4-6 weeks. Considering most leagues begin their postseasons in Weeks 21 or 22, and this is Week 15, Paul owners will be fortunate if they get their first-round selection back in time for the playoffs.

Keep that in mind if your league's trade deadline hasn't passed. As I wrote Monday, Darren Collison is more than an adequate replacement for Paul on your roster.

The Hornets rookie has 42 points and 41 assists in three games since Paul was injured.

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Fantasy focus: Chris Paul and Darren Collison

Chris Paul's knee injury is the basketball equivalent of losing Adrian Peterson for at least a few weeks in the fall.

If that sounds dramatic, take a glance at the statistics for the Hornets' All-Star point guard. He can score (20.2 points per game), he leads the league in assists (11.2), is second in steals (2.3) and is fourth among guards in field-goal percentage (50.4). Paul also averages 4.6 rebounds and 1.2 3-pointers per game, and he commits only 2.5 turnovers (his assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.42 easily leads the league).

Now you're left with, if you're lucky, Darren Collison for at least the next month.

When asked about Paul's knee injury Monday, Hornets coach/general manager/quote machine Jeff Bowers told reporters, "It is likely there will be a surgical solution for it."

Bowers wouldn't confirm an ESPN report that Paul has a torn meniscus and could be sidelined two months.

What Bowers doesn't need to confirm is Collison's place on the waiver wire. The rookie from UCLA is a must-have for Paul owners, and he's a free-agent gem for anyone who is in dire need of assists.

Counting Monday's loss to the Suns, Collison has 32 assists in the two games since Paul was injured. He has 33 points, 10 rebounds and nine turnovers in that span, and he's made all but one of his 11 free-throw attempts.

When Paul missed eight games because of a sprained ankle earlier this season, Collison averaged 14.9 points, 6.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 1.1 steals in that stretch. He was 29-for-32 from the free-throw line (90.6 percent) and 42-for-100 from the field (hopefully, I don't have to tell you that's 42 percent) in the eight games.

The latter percentage is one of the few drawbacks to Collison.

For the season, he's shooting 41.2 percent from the field, and he's not nearly the 3-point threat Paul is (Collison has 11 treys in 42 games).

You won't get two or three steals per game, either, but you can do a lot worse than a rookie who can pile up points and assists, along with helping your free-throw percentage.

As of late Monday night, Collison was available in 93 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com.

He's a bargain in any format until Paul returns.

And we'll have to wait for further word on a "surgical solution" to know when that might be.

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