Blogs > N-H Fantasy Sports

News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fantasy football: More NFL draft numbers

In a column for the print editions two weeks ago, I broke down the success -- or lack thereof -- of rookie quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers from a fantasy perspective.

A quick recap: Since 2004, only four quarterbacks have thrown for 2,500 yards or more and at least 10 touchdowns as rookies -- Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008, Matt Leinart in 2006 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. There have been eight rookie running backs to record 1,000 yards on the ground -- Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton last season, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in 2007, Joseph Addai in 2006, Cadillac Williams in 2005 and Kevin Jones (yes, Kevin Jones; he was such a surprise I omitted him in the previous column) in 2004. And the most surprising stat: Only two wide receivers have had 1,000-yard campaigns in their first seasons, and Larry Fitzgerald wasn't one of them. The two are Marques Colston in 2006 and the seldom-heard-from-since Michael Clayton in 2004.

Some leftover statistics from that analysis:

-- Where are the receivers? It goes without saying that quarterbacks can't be trusted as fantasy options as rookies. Of the four QBs to reach the aforementioned plateau, only Ryan threw for 3,000 yards (3,440 with the Falcons in 2008), and only Ryan and Roethlisberger had more than Flacco's 14 TD passes.

I went into this assuming there would be more 1,000-yard receivers than rushers, strictly because of the pass-happy nature of today's NFL, plus the fact that more teams split carries now than before. But even Fitzgerald (58 catches for 780 yards and eight TDs in 2004) wasn't much more than a No. 3 fantasy option as a rookie. Same goes for 2004 draft classmates Roy Williams (54-817, 8 TDs) and Lee Evans 48-843, 9).

-- What about Braylon? The butter-fingered Edwards had 32 receptions for 512 yards and three TDs for the Browns in 2005.

-- Close calls and other WR notables: The Broncos' Eddie Royal was sensational last season (91 receptions), but fell 20 yards shy of 1,000. ... Philly's DeSean Jackson had 62 receptions for 912 yards and two scores in 2008. ... Of the triple-figure club, no one came closer to 1,000 than Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe, who had 70 catches for 995 yards and five TDs in 2007. ... Super Bowl MVP and former Buckeye Santonio Holmes had 49 catches for 824 yards and two TDs for the Steelers in 2006.

-- Run, rookie, run: Last season's rookie class was easily the best of the five, with Forte, Johnson and Slaton likely high first-round draft choices this season. The 2008 class also includes the Lions' Kevin Smith, who ran for 976 yards and eight TDs and caught 39 passes for 286 yards.

-- Reggie and MJD:
The Saints' Reggie Bush ran for only 565 yards in 2006, but he scored eight total TDs and had 88 receptions for 742 yards. It remains his best season. ... The Jags' Maurice Jones-Drew, a likely top-five pick this season with Fred Taylor no longer around to eat up carries, was a fantasy stud as a rookie in 2006, but didn't run for 1,000 yards. Jones-Drew had 941 yards on the ground, caught 46 passes for 436 yards and had 15 total TDs.

-- More RB notables: Ronnie Brown had 907 yards rushing, 32 receptions for 232 yards and five total TDs for Miami in 2005 -- the same year Cadillac had his only big season (1,178 yards, six TDs). ... Steven Jackson rushed for 673 yards and four TDs as a Rams rookie in 2004, the same year Kevin Jones had 1,133 yards and six total scores with the Lions. He hasn't rushed for more than 689 yards since.

-- Don't count on the tight ends. A quick look at some bigger-name tight ends as rookies -- 2008: John Carlson, Seahawks, 55 receptions, 627 yards, five TDs; Dustin Keller, Jets, 48-535, 3; 2007: Greg Olsen, Bears, 39-391, 2; Zach Miller, Raiders, 44-444, 3; 2006: Vernon Davis, 49ers, 20-265, 3; Owen Daniels, Texans, 34-352, 5; 2005: Heath Miller, Steelers, 39-459, 6; Alex Smith, Buccaneers, 41-367, 2; 2004: Kellen Winslow Jr., Browns, two games played; Ben Troupe, Titans, 33-329, 1; Chris Cooley, Redskins, 37-314, 6.

-- Although I didn't go back to 2003 for the other positions, I was curious to see how that class of tight ends -- Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark -- fared as rookies. All three had between 340 and 389 yards (led by Gates' 389), the trio combined for only four TDs (two by Gates) and Witten's 35 receptions were the most of the bunch.

The lesson, 12 long paragraphs later: On draft day 2009, know that rookie running backs have the greatest chance of success among the four primary positions. The problem, of course, is determining the right one.

Five backs were chosen in the first round in 2008 -- Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson -- and Stewart and Johnson were the only fantasy assets. Forte was a second-round pick by the Bears, Smith was selected 64th overall in Round 3, and Slaton (maybe the best of all) went 25 choices later at 89.

Could that mean big things from LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene or Glen Coffee?

That's more than enough numbers for now. Go to The News-Herald's Web site on Saturday for a breakdown of the struggling stars in fantasy baseball. The site also currently has a fantasy baseball and football audiocast.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home