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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 4

We'll get much more in-depth later this week, including the rising value of the re-energized LaDainian Tomlinson, but let's take a quick trip around the league as Week 4 ends, Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes get set to return, and Peyton Hillis makes Browns fans appreciate Brady Quinn more than any of us felt was possible.

-- Start 'em: Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew (21 receptions for 243 yards in his last three games).

-- I'm not in the Start Mark Sanchez Club (president: Brian Schottenheimer) yet, but I'm getting there. Sanchez has thrown for 637 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the Jets' last three games. The biggest beneficiary has been tight end Dustin Keller, who has 17 receptions for 241 yards and five TDs in that span and has been the best fantasy tight end not named Antonio Gates.

-- Sit 'em: Jaguars wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker, who had 10 receptions for 105 yards and a TD in Week 2, but was shut out in Weeks 1 and 4, and had two catches for 34 yards in Week 3.

-- Drop 'em: Browns running back Jerome Harrison (see Hillis, Peyton), Colts running back Donald Brown (only an asset if Joseph Addai is injured), Chargers receiver Legedu Naanee (huge Week 1, but one catch in two of his last three contests) and Texans running back Steve Slaton. Even with Arian Foster in the doghouse for almost two quarters on Sunday, Derrick Ward (12 carries, 80 yards, one TD) was the Texans' backfield choice, not Slaton, who had five carries for 37 yards in the game.

-- I'd consider dropping Packers running back Brandon Jackson, but wouldn't make the move yet. In three games with Ryan Grant out of the lineup, Jackson has 27 carries for 74 yards (2.7 average) and one TD. Green Bay fullback John Kuhn has almost as many attempts (24) in that span.

-- Stock up: Steelers receivers Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, once Roethlisberger starts against the Browns in Week 6 at Heinz Field.

-- Stock down: Saints receiver Marques Colston (zero TDs on the season; 61 yards combined in the last two weeks) and Giants receiver Steve Smith (zero TDs; 43 yards or fewer in three of four games).

-- I don't believe in Carson Palmer, but I am a fan of Brandon Lloyd for the first time.

-- Rams rookie Sam Bradford isn't an everyweek starter by any means, but he's at least a bye-week fill-in and decent backup after throwing for 524 yards and three TDs the last two weeks.

Stats of the week

-- Denver's Kyle Orton is on pace to throw for 5,676 yards and 24 touchdowns. We could be living in a fantasy football world in which Orton throws for 5,000 yards and Randy Moss fails to catch 50 passes from Tom Brady.

-- Bills running backs Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combined to receive nine carries in a 38-14 home loss to the Jets. Spiller, chosen ninth overall in the 2010 NFL draft, has received all of seven carries in his last three games.

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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 9

When us fantasy freaks think of things we need more of in the NFL, running-back committees rank far below DIRECTV's Sunday Ticket and slightly above more high-definition closeups of an annoyed Eric Mangini.

Well, buckle up, boys and girls, we've got another committee, thanks to one of this year's biggest busts, Steve Slaton.

Slaton was fantastic as a rookie last season, when he ran for 1,282 yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry, scored 10 touchdowns and caught 50 passes for 377 yards. This year, not so much.

The Texans running back was benched early last week after losing his fifth fumble of the season. In his place, Ryan Moats -- who had 56 yards in Houston's first seven games -- ran for 126 yards and three TDs on 23 carries and had two receptions for 25 yards.

That has led to speculation this week that Moats, who has 623 career rushing yards in limited duty since 2005, will take over as the Texans' featured back. Coach Gary Kubiak, however, has refused to name a starter, but did say Slaton, Moats and Chris Brown all will play.

Thanks, Coach. I'm sure this week's opponent, the Colts, are every bit as nervous as Slaton owners.

In Houston's first seven games, Slaton had 109 rushing attempts, Brown 36 and Moats 15. So what was a one-man attack is now a two-headed monster -- but not of the Saints variety (the productive Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell combo). Instead, it's more of a don't-play-either-unless-you-have-to-because-of-bye-weeks-situation.

Of the two, Moats has more value this week, since he should at least start. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could be a decent No. 2 running back going forward, when the Texans face the Titans (Week 11, No. 18 vs. the run), Jaguars (Week 13, No. 25 vs. the run) and Rams (Week 15, No. 28).

But at this point, you can't trust Slaton or Moats. Because six teams are off this week, Moats is a low-level No. 2 running back. Slaton is a reserve.

And committees continue to remind us of the evil doings of Mike Shanahan.

Replacement players

If you were among the unfortunate owners who lost standout tight ends Chris Cooley (who will miss at least another few weeks because of a broken ankle) and/or Owen Daniels (who will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury), let's look at five players who are available in the majority of the leagues on ESPN.com. We'll do so in descending order to build the drama:

5. Kevin Boss, Giants (owned in 39.5 percent of the ESPN leagues): He was impressive last season (33 catches for 384 yards and six touchdowns) and anything but in the Giants' first five games this year (11 receptions for 161 yards and zero scores). Boss had three catches for 70 yards and a TD last week, and he has six receptions in his last two games. The bad news: He's been limited this week by a sprained ankle (but he is expected to play). Week 9 opponent: Chargers (No. 6 vs. the pass).

4. Benjamin Watson, Patriots (30.2 percent): He has four touchdowns on the season, but six of his 15 catches and 77 of his 222 yards were in the Patriots' season opener (as were two of his TDs). Week 9 opponent: Dolphins(No. 21 vs. the pass).

3. Spencer Havner, Packers (1.6 percent): This seems like a reach, until you consider Havner has three touchdowns in the Pack's last two games. He's not going to be much of an asset in point-per-reception leagues, but with Jermichael Finley likely out again this week because of a knee injury, Havner could at least get you six points the old-fashioned, non-PPR way. Week 9 opponent: at Buccaneers (No. 15 vs. the pass).

2. Todd Heap, Ravens (41.8 percent): He's had three or more catches in five consecutive games, but he hasn't had a TD in that span after scoring twice in the first two weeks. Week 9 opponent: at Bengals (No. 30 vs. the pass).

1. Fred Davis, Redskins (3.1 percent): When Cooley was injured in Week 7 against the Eagles, Davis, a second-round pick in 2008, was targeted 10 times and caught eight passes for 78 yards and a TD. Considering Cooley has averaged 4.6 receptions per game since 2007, Davis figures to get plenty of opportunities to produce for a struggling offense. Week 9 opponent: at Falcons (No. 31 vs. the pass).

Start 'em

-- Matt Forte, RB, Bears: How much were his 90 yards rushing and two TDs a product of how awful the Browns have been? Likely quite a bit, but I would at least see how the 2008 rookie stud and '09 disappointment performs in tough matchups this week against the Cardinals (No. 8 vs. the run) and in Week 10 at the 49ers (No. 2).

-- Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers: With 11 catches and 15 targets in two games since ending his holdout, I'd consider the rookie an every-week starter in PPR leagues.

Sit 'em

-- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: He's thrown as many interceptions (11) as touchdown passes, and there are too many productive quarterbacks this season to continue starting him every week.

-- Eli Manning, QB, Giants: He hasn't thrown for more than 243 yards since Week 4, and he has twice as many picks (six) as TD tosses (three) in his last three games.

Drop 'em

-- Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys: Remember him? Whether Williams wants to admit it or not, and apparently he doesn't, Austin Miles is Dallas' top receiver. Williams has one TD since Week 1 and has had 35 receiving yards or fewer in four of his last five games. If you need the roster space and have a few productive receivers, he is a candidate to hit the waiver wire.

-- Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos: Another game, another shutout. It's amazing that a player who caught 91 passes as a rookie in 2008 has a total of 10 catches for 68 yards in six of Denver's seven games (Royal had 10 catches for 90 yards in the other, a Week 5 win over the Patriots). Royal has yet to reach the end zone, and it's hard to argue with letting him go at this point.

Closing numbers

Cardinals running back Tim Hightower -- who has struggled mightily on the ground (3.3 yards per carry this season and 2.9 in his two-year career) -- has four more catches (39) than teammate Anquan Boldin.

Hightower had 34 receptions in 16 games as a rookie last season. Boldin, who has battled injuries but played in all seven games this year, had 89 catches in 12 games in 2008. Hightower also has five TDs to Boldin's one in 2009.

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Monday, August 24, 2009

Fantasy football rankings: Running backs

Before we get to the rankings for the most important position in fantasy, let me be master of the obvious: It's good to have the No. 1 overall pick in your league.

This year, it's almost as crucial as it was during the LaDainian Tomlinson glory years.

And the reason has nothing to do with the expectation that Adrian Peterson will outscore every other running back this season. In point-per-reception leagues, he almost certainly won't.

It instead has everything to do with the fact that there's no clear-cut No. 2 pick behind him. I'd give the slightest of edges to Matt Forte over Maurice Jones-Drew, but owners in non-PPR leagues certainly have to target Michael Turner.

There are questions regarding every back on this list. Will Forte and Slaton experience a sophomore slump? Will Turner and DeAngelo Williams be nearly as great as they were in 2008? Will the slimmed-down LenDale White cut further into Chris Johnson's scoring? Will Steven Jackson stay healthy? Will L.T. continue to decline?

There are no such concerns with Peterson, who is the football version of Albert Pujols. Take him first, and don't even consider anyone else.

In PPR leagues, Peterson was outscored by the likes of Williams, Forte, Jones-Drew, Turner, Tomlinson, Slaton, Brian Westbrook and even Thomas Jones last season. That was because of two factors: His less-than-average receiving totals (21 catches for 125 yards) and his decrease in touchdowns (from 13 as a rookie in 2007 to 10 last season).

Regardless, Peterson rushed for 1,760 yards in his second season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, and with a decent -- albeit aging and waffling -- quarterback, the addition of Percy Harvin and a good offensive line in Minnesota, you should have every reason to believe he will average more than 100 yards and one TD per game.

Will that be enough to vault him to the top of the scoring leaders in PPR leagues? Probably not. But you don't want to miss with the top overall pick, and Peterson shouldn't disappoint you in any format.

Rank, player, team GP-Yds-TD-Rec-Yds-TD
1. Adrian Peterson, Min 16-1,760-10-21-125-0
2. Matt Forte, Chi 16-1,238-8-63-477-4
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac 16-824-12-62-565-2
4. Michael Turner, Atl 16-1,699-17-6-41-0
5. Steve Slaton, Hou 16-1,282-9-50-377-1
6. Chris Johnson, Ten 15-1,228-9-43-260-1
7. DeAngelo Williams, Car 16-1,515-18-22-121-2
8. Steven Jackson, StL 12-1,042-7-40-379-1
9. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD 16-1,110-11-52-426-1
10. Frank Gore, SF 14-1,036-6-43-373-2
11. Brian Westbrook, Phi 14-936-9-54-402-5
12. Brandon Jacobs, NYG 13-1,089-15-6-36-0
13. Clinton Portis, Was 16-1,487-9-28-218-0
14. Marion Barber, Dal 15-885-7-52-417-2
15. Kevin Smith, Det 16-976-8-39-286-0
16. Ryan Grant, GB 16-1,203-4-18-116-1
17. Ronnie Brown, Mia 16-916-10-33-254-0
18. Thomas Jones, NYJ 16-1,312-13-36-207-2
19. Pierre Thomas, NO 15-625-9-31-284-3
20. Joseph Addai, Ind 12-544-5-25-206-2
21. Marshawn Lynch, Buf 15-1,036-8-47-300-1
22. Darren McFadden, Oak 13-499-4-29-285-0
23. Derrick Ward, TB 16-1,025-2-41-384-0
24. Knowshon Moreno, Den ROOKIE
25. Jonathan Stewart, Car 16-836-10-8-47-0
26. Larry Johnson, KC 12-874-5-12-74-0
27. Willie Parker, Pit 11-791-5-3-13-0
28. Jamal Lewis, Cle 16-1,002-4-23-178-0
29. Reggie Bush, NO 10-404-2-52-440-4
30. LenDale White, Ten 16-773-15-5-16-0
31. Ray Rice, Bal 13-454-0-33-273-0
32. Cedric Benson, Cin 12-797-2-20-185-0
33. Beanie Wells, Ari ROOKIE
34. Julius Jones, Sea 15-698-2-14-66-0
35. Willis McGahee, Bal 13-671-7-24-173-0
36. Earnest Graham, TB 10-563-4-23-174-0
37. Donald Brown, Ind ROOKIE
38. Fred Jackson, Buf 16-571-3-37-317-0
39. Felix Jones, Dal 6-266-3-2-10-0
40. Sammy Morris, NE 13-727-7-17-161-0
41. Leon Washington, NYJ 16-448-6-47-355-2
42. Fred Taylor, NE 13-556-1-16-98-0
43. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG 15-355-1-5-42-1
44. Darren Sproles, SD 16-330-1-29-342-5
45. Rashard Mendenhall, Pit 4-58-0-2-17-0
46. Tim Hightower, Ari 16-399-10-34-237-0
47. LeSean McCoy, Phi ROOKIE
48. Chester Taylor, Min 16-399-4-45-399-2
49. Ricky Williams, Mia 16-659-4-29-219-1
50. Jerious Norwood, Atl 16-489-4-36-338-2
51. Laurence Maroney, NE 3-93-0-0-0-0
52. LeRon McClain, Bal 16-902-10-19-123-1
53. Correll Buckhalter, Den 14-369-2-26-324-2
54. Justin Fargas, Oak 14-853-1-10-52-0
55. Jamaal Charles, KC 16-357-0-27-272-1
56. T.J. Duckett, Sea 16-172-8-0-0-0
57. Tashard Choice, Dal 16-472-2-21-185-0
58. Maurice Morris, Det 13-574-0-19-136-2
59. Ladell Betts, Was 13-206-1-22-200-0
60. Brandon Jackson, GB 13-248-1-30-185-0

QUICK SLANTS
Turner, who has 17 catches in 75 career games, is even less of a help in the receiving department than Peterson. ... With Fred Taylor in New England, Jones-Drew's touches per game should increase from its absurdly low 2008 total (16.2) to at least the low 20s. ... The Rams' Jackson always produces, but he's also frequently hurt (12 games played in each of the last two seasons). ... Gore has a combined 157 catches the last three years. ... The Cowboys' Barber averaged 14 TDs per season in 2006 and '07. ... The Jets' Jones scored only two TDs in 2007. ... In 20 games played the last two seasons, the Chiefs' Johnson has nine touchdowns. ... The Browns' Lewis (1,552 total yards and 11 TDs in 2007) could provide value as a third running back, but not if he repeats his 2008 production. ... The Bengals' Benson has 12 touchdowns in 47 career games. ... A possible sleeper: Buffalo's Fred Jackson, who should be the featured back with Marshawn Lynch suspended for the first three weeks. Jackson is more of an asset in PPR leagues.

Next: Wide receivers

Linked in: For a complete list of our fantasy football rankings, click here. ... To read our fantasy football previews, click here for Mark Podolski's 25 bold predictions, here for my column on the most muddled backfields and here for the best crutches, key storylines and injuries.

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fantasy football: More NFL draft numbers

In a column for the print editions two weeks ago, I broke down the success -- or lack thereof -- of rookie quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers from a fantasy perspective.

A quick recap: Since 2004, only four quarterbacks have thrown for 2,500 yards or more and at least 10 touchdowns as rookies -- Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008, Matt Leinart in 2006 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. There have been eight rookie running backs to record 1,000 yards on the ground -- Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton last season, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in 2007, Joseph Addai in 2006, Cadillac Williams in 2005 and Kevin Jones (yes, Kevin Jones; he was such a surprise I omitted him in the previous column) in 2004. And the most surprising stat: Only two wide receivers have had 1,000-yard campaigns in their first seasons, and Larry Fitzgerald wasn't one of them. The two are Marques Colston in 2006 and the seldom-heard-from-since Michael Clayton in 2004.

Some leftover statistics from that analysis:

-- Where are the receivers? It goes without saying that quarterbacks can't be trusted as fantasy options as rookies. Of the four QBs to reach the aforementioned plateau, only Ryan threw for 3,000 yards (3,440 with the Falcons in 2008), and only Ryan and Roethlisberger had more than Flacco's 14 TD passes.

I went into this assuming there would be more 1,000-yard receivers than rushers, strictly because of the pass-happy nature of today's NFL, plus the fact that more teams split carries now than before. But even Fitzgerald (58 catches for 780 yards and eight TDs in 2004) wasn't much more than a No. 3 fantasy option as a rookie. Same goes for 2004 draft classmates Roy Williams (54-817, 8 TDs) and Lee Evans 48-843, 9).

-- What about Braylon? The butter-fingered Edwards had 32 receptions for 512 yards and three TDs for the Browns in 2005.

-- Close calls and other WR notables: The Broncos' Eddie Royal was sensational last season (91 receptions), but fell 20 yards shy of 1,000. ... Philly's DeSean Jackson had 62 receptions for 912 yards and two scores in 2008. ... Of the triple-figure club, no one came closer to 1,000 than Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe, who had 70 catches for 995 yards and five TDs in 2007. ... Super Bowl MVP and former Buckeye Santonio Holmes had 49 catches for 824 yards and two TDs for the Steelers in 2006.

-- Run, rookie, run: Last season's rookie class was easily the best of the five, with Forte, Johnson and Slaton likely high first-round draft choices this season. The 2008 class also includes the Lions' Kevin Smith, who ran for 976 yards and eight TDs and caught 39 passes for 286 yards.

-- Reggie and MJD:
The Saints' Reggie Bush ran for only 565 yards in 2006, but he scored eight total TDs and had 88 receptions for 742 yards. It remains his best season. ... The Jags' Maurice Jones-Drew, a likely top-five pick this season with Fred Taylor no longer around to eat up carries, was a fantasy stud as a rookie in 2006, but didn't run for 1,000 yards. Jones-Drew had 941 yards on the ground, caught 46 passes for 436 yards and had 15 total TDs.

-- More RB notables: Ronnie Brown had 907 yards rushing, 32 receptions for 232 yards and five total TDs for Miami in 2005 -- the same year Cadillac had his only big season (1,178 yards, six TDs). ... Steven Jackson rushed for 673 yards and four TDs as a Rams rookie in 2004, the same year Kevin Jones had 1,133 yards and six total scores with the Lions. He hasn't rushed for more than 689 yards since.

-- Don't count on the tight ends. A quick look at some bigger-name tight ends as rookies -- 2008: John Carlson, Seahawks, 55 receptions, 627 yards, five TDs; Dustin Keller, Jets, 48-535, 3; 2007: Greg Olsen, Bears, 39-391, 2; Zach Miller, Raiders, 44-444, 3; 2006: Vernon Davis, 49ers, 20-265, 3; Owen Daniels, Texans, 34-352, 5; 2005: Heath Miller, Steelers, 39-459, 6; Alex Smith, Buccaneers, 41-367, 2; 2004: Kellen Winslow Jr., Browns, two games played; Ben Troupe, Titans, 33-329, 1; Chris Cooley, Redskins, 37-314, 6.

-- Although I didn't go back to 2003 for the other positions, I was curious to see how that class of tight ends -- Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark -- fared as rookies. All three had between 340 and 389 yards (led by Gates' 389), the trio combined for only four TDs (two by Gates) and Witten's 35 receptions were the most of the bunch.

The lesson, 12 long paragraphs later: On draft day 2009, know that rookie running backs have the greatest chance of success among the four primary positions. The problem, of course, is determining the right one.

Five backs were chosen in the first round in 2008 -- Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson -- and Stewart and Johnson were the only fantasy assets. Forte was a second-round pick by the Bears, Smith was selected 64th overall in Round 3, and Slaton (maybe the best of all) went 25 choices later at 89.

Could that mean big things from LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene or Glen Coffee?

That's more than enough numbers for now. Go to The News-Herald's Web site on Saturday for a breakdown of the struggling stars in fantasy baseball. The site also currently has a fantasy baseball and football audiocast.

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