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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Fantasy football: Should Peyton Hillis be benched?

It hasn't been a good eight days for Peyton Hillis.

Last Sunday, he missed the Browns' win over the Dolphins because of strep throat.

This week, there were rumors -- which fireballed when ESPN's Adam Schefter jumped into the fray -- that Hillis' decision not to play last week was because of his unhappiness with his contract, which pays him $600,000 this season.

Hillis' tumultuous week was capped by a Sunday in which he had a season-low 15 touches -- only three more than backfield mate Montario Hardesty -- in the Browns' loss to the Titans.

Whether or not you believe the Browns should reward Hillis for his huge 2010 season by extending his contract is fodder for another blog. Here, we're going to concentrate on Hillis' fantasy value, which is at its lowest since he was a blocking back in Denver.

Hillis rushed for 46 yards on 10 carries and caught five passes for 23 yards against Tennessee. Hardesty, meanwhile, had seven carries for 22 yards and five receptions (plus four drops) for 49 yards.

In his last two games, the first of which was without Hillis, Hardesty has 21 rushes for 89 yards and eight receptions for 68 yards.

He will continue to cut into Hillis' workload, which might not be a terrible thing, considering how Hillis tailed off at the end of 2010.

Hillis should have no reason to be worn down this season, and you would figure the Browns would prefer to have his touches closer to the mid-20s (he had an average of 27 in Weeks 1 and 2) than the mid-teens.

The Browns are off in Week 5, so you can sit on this decision for a week.

In Week 6, they play at Oakland, which was ranked 26th against the run entering Sunday, then allowed 30 carries for 183 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to the pass-happy Patriots.

Hillis has to be a fantasy starter against Oakland, and the Browns' schedule in Weeks 7 to 12 is about as imposing as Colt McCoy trying to make a tackle after an interception. Cleveland will play host to Seattle in Week 7, followed by games at San Francisco, at Houston, St. Louis and Jacksonville at home, and at Cincinnati.

Give Hillis another chance, but in standard scoring leagues, his value is even more tenuous than in point-per-reception formats. At the very least, you can count on him to catch about four passes per week.

Since that's the best you can say about the Browns' bruising back at this point, it's not a stretch to think Hillis might be no better than a flex play in Weeks 13, 14 and 16 -- when the Browns play the Ravens twice and the Steelers once.

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Thursday, August 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Peyton Hillis analysis

If you're a Browns fan, you probably love Peyton Hillis.

If you're just a fantasy football fan (and how can you not be?), you appreciate Hillis' unlikely rise to a featured role in an NFL backfield after serving as a blocking back for Darren McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas.

You also have to love the video below, whether you like the Browns or Steelers.



Take away the feel-good story and the YouTube video, though, and you have a bruising back who took a lot of punishment last season and already is dealing with a hamstring injury during the 2011 preseason.

Hillis rushed for 1,177 yards and 11 touchdowns and caught 61 passes for 477 yards and two TDs last season. He had 331 touches in 16 games, an average of 20.7 per contest.

Look a little deeper at the numbers, though, and you get this:


  • First 11 games: 199 carries, 905 yards, 4.5 average, 11 TDs, 46 receptions for 414 yards, two TDs. TOTALS: 245 touches for 1,319 yards and 13 TDs (5.4 yards per touch).
  • Last five games: 71 carries, 272 yards, 3.8 average, zero TDs, 15 receptions for 63 yards, zero TDs. TOTALS: 86 touches for 345 yards and zero TDs (4.0 yards per touch).

Clearly, Hillis wasn't the same player in the last five weeks of the season.

Clearly, that's a concern if you're planning on investing a second-round pick on him on draft day.

A few words of advice: Don't -- in Round 2.

The addition of Brandon Jackson and the return to health of Montario Hardesty (at least that's what we're led to believe on the latter) should mean fewer carries for Hillis, which might keep him fresh in December.

It also could lead to a decline in his yardage and TD totals. If you're in a point-per-reception league, you have to wonder if Jackson, who had 43 catches for the Packers last season, will be the primary third-down back and help keep Hillis' catch total below 40.

In its preseason rankings, ESPN has Hillis No. 13 among running backs and No. 25 overall. CBS has him No. 17 at running back and No. 33 overall, and Yahoo is similar to CBS with rankings of 15 at running back and 32 overall.

I haven't finished all of my research for 2011, but in my mind, there are 11 running backs you have to take ahead of Hillis -- Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Jones-Drew, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Steven Jackson and Darren McFadden. There are two others I probably would select over Hillis -- Michael Turner and Matt Forte, though it would be understandable if you think Hillis is better than both.

That puts Hillis as a third-round pick in a 12-team league. I'd much rather have him as my No. 2 running back, not my No. 1.

Cool story and all.

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Monday, December 27, 2010

Fantasy football: How far has Peyton Hillis' 2011 draft stock plummeted?

Peyton Hillis was a revelation in 2010, and it had nothing to do with the fact he was the first white running back to rush for 1,000 yards since Craig James in 1985.

He was undrafted in many fantasy leagues, yet he entered Sunday ranked second at running back for the season in most point-per-reception leagues. That happens about as often as the aforementioned James isn't annoying during an ESPN college football broadcast.

For the season, Hillis has rushed for 1,164 yards through Week 16, scored 13 touchdowns and caught 60 passes for 474 yards.

Then there's this:

-- He has zero TDs in his last four games.

-- In that span, he's rushed for 259 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per carry.

-- He has 14 receptions for 60 yards in the four games, and has averaged 79.8 total yards per game -- down from his season norm of 109.2.

-- In Weeks 14 through 16, when the majority of the fantasy leagues hold their postseason, he had 202 rushing yards and 38 receiving yards.

-- In Weeks 15 and 16 (fantasy semifinal and championship week), he had 26 carries for 94 yards and three catches for 28 yards.

-- In Week 16, he matched his season lows with 35 yards rushing and one reception.

All of which makes us wonder how far he will slip on draft day in 2011.

Prior to the last few weeks, it could have assumed Hillis would be drafted among the top seven running backs -- likely after Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew.

Now, he probably won't go before Steven Jackson, and would you take him over Darren McFadden? Jamaal Charles? How about Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall and/or Matt Forte?

Obviously, we have a long time to answer that potential dilemma. But it's an interesting subplot looking ahead to 2011 -- which is all we can do at this point after the 2010 fantasy season had another wacky ending (see Tim Tebow, David Garrard and Carson Palmer).

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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 4

We'll get much more in-depth later this week, including the rising value of the re-energized LaDainian Tomlinson, but let's take a quick trip around the league as Week 4 ends, Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes get set to return, and Peyton Hillis makes Browns fans appreciate Brady Quinn more than any of us felt was possible.

-- Start 'em: Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew (21 receptions for 243 yards in his last three games).

-- I'm not in the Start Mark Sanchez Club (president: Brian Schottenheimer) yet, but I'm getting there. Sanchez has thrown for 637 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the Jets' last three games. The biggest beneficiary has been tight end Dustin Keller, who has 17 receptions for 241 yards and five TDs in that span and has been the best fantasy tight end not named Antonio Gates.

-- Sit 'em: Jaguars wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker, who had 10 receptions for 105 yards and a TD in Week 2, but was shut out in Weeks 1 and 4, and had two catches for 34 yards in Week 3.

-- Drop 'em: Browns running back Jerome Harrison (see Hillis, Peyton), Colts running back Donald Brown (only an asset if Joseph Addai is injured), Chargers receiver Legedu Naanee (huge Week 1, but one catch in two of his last three contests) and Texans running back Steve Slaton. Even with Arian Foster in the doghouse for almost two quarters on Sunday, Derrick Ward (12 carries, 80 yards, one TD) was the Texans' backfield choice, not Slaton, who had five carries for 37 yards in the game.

-- I'd consider dropping Packers running back Brandon Jackson, but wouldn't make the move yet. In three games with Ryan Grant out of the lineup, Jackson has 27 carries for 74 yards (2.7 average) and one TD. Green Bay fullback John Kuhn has almost as many attempts (24) in that span.

-- Stock up: Steelers receivers Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, once Roethlisberger starts against the Browns in Week 6 at Heinz Field.

-- Stock down: Saints receiver Marques Colston (zero TDs on the season; 61 yards combined in the last two weeks) and Giants receiver Steve Smith (zero TDs; 43 yards or fewer in three of four games).

-- I don't believe in Carson Palmer, but I am a fan of Brandon Lloyd for the first time.

-- Rams rookie Sam Bradford isn't an everyweek starter by any means, but he's at least a bye-week fill-in and decent backup after throwing for 524 yards and three TDs the last two weeks.

Stats of the week

-- Denver's Kyle Orton is on pace to throw for 5,676 yards and 24 touchdowns. We could be living in a fantasy football world in which Orton throws for 5,000 yards and Randy Moss fails to catch 50 passes from Tom Brady.

-- Bills running backs Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combined to receive nine carries in a 38-14 home loss to the Jets. Spiller, chosen ninth overall in the 2010 NFL draft, has received all of seven carries in his last three games.

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Monday, September 27, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 3

Peyton Hillis is the Browns' featured back, Roy Williams is alive, Darren McFadden is for real, Lance Moore is back, and Eric Wright is still chasing Anquan Boldin.

Just another week in (cue Mark Schlereth) the National Football League.

Let's take a trip around the field from a fantasy perspective after Sunday's games:

-- I know the Browns' Hillis won't keep this going, especially once Jerome Harrison is healthy, but his Week 3 performance against a Ravens defense that didn't allow a rushing touchdown in the first two games and ranked fifth against the run in 2009 was much too impressive to ignore. Hillis, who ran for 144 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries and caught seven passes for 36 yards, has to be considered a low-level No. 2 back when Harrison doesn't play. Once Harrison returns, Hillis could still be a flex play in deeper leagues, depending on the matchup. He has 14 receptions in three games.

-- At this point, we should at least be a little concerned with Andre Johnson, who had four receptions for 64 yards and reaggravated his sprained ankle. The Texans receiver has had two poor games and one huge (a 12-catch, 158-yard, one-TD performance in Week 2) contest.

-- Hey, Steven Jackson is hurt. Didn't see that coming.

-- Beanie Wells returned for the Cardinals and, as expected, Tim Hightower wasn't worth a starting spot. Wells had 14 carries for 75 yards, and Hightower had 12 touches (11 rushes for 40 yards, one catch for zero yards). It's simple: If Wells is active, Hightower (who had 218 total yards and two TDs in the first two weeks) should be a fantasy reserve.

-- Maybe it is OK to play Mike Wallace before Ben Roethlisberger returns.

-- Chargers receiver Malcom Floyd (nine receptions for 192 yards and two TDs in the last two weeks) is now a must-start. Thank Vincent Jackson (or the stubborn A.J. Smith).

-- Boldin has crushed Derrick Mason's value. The latter has seven receptions for 82 yards and one TD in three weeks. That's a decent half for Boldin against Wright.

-- Start 'em: Raiders receiver Louis Murphy (11 catches for 210 yards and a TD in his last two games), Texans receiver Kevin Walter (one TD in each game, 16 receptions on the season), Chiefs rookie tight end Tony Moeaki (12 catches, two TDs in three games) and Patriots rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez (12 receptions for 166 yards the last two weeks; 16.2 yards per catch on the season)

-- Sit 'em: Bucs running back Cadillac Williams (139 yards, 2.5 yards per carry, zero TDs in three games) and 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree (six catches, 81 yards, zero TDs on the year).

-- Drop 'em: Browns receiver Mohamed Massaquoi (three receptions for 55 yards in three games), Bills running back Fred Jackson (no longer a factor with Marshawn Lynch getting most of the carries and C.J. Spiller as the electric change-of-pace), Giants running back Brandon Jacobs (eight carries for 25 yards the last two weeks), Jaguars quarterback David Garrard (278 yards, two TDs, five interceptions in his last two games) and Chargers running back Darren Sproles (had two touches, to Mike Tolbert's 20, with Ryan Mathews sitting because of an ankle injury).

-- I wouldn't bench Kellen Winslow Jr. yet, but I'm getting close. The Bucs tight end with the messed-up knees and the eventful past has 11 receptions for 139 yards and zero scores. He hasn't had more than four catches in a game.

-- I can understand if you bench Terrell Owens, who hasn't scored as a Bengal and is averaging only 10.9 yards on his 14 receptions.

-- If you need the roster spot, it's OK to cut Carson Palmer, whose mediocre numbers (three TDs, three interceptions) don't indicate how poorly he's played.

-- A popular waiver-wire pickup this week will be the Saints' Moore, who had six receptions for 149 yards and two TDs after catching three passes for 23 yards the first two games. With Reggie Bush out, Moore will get more looks, and remember, he was effective in 2008 (79 receptions, 928 yards, 10 TDs).

-- That sound you just heard was Panthers receiver Steve Smith telling someone how he feels about the start of the Jimmy Clausen era.

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