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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Fantasy football: We'll miss you, L.T.

If you played fantasy football for most of the 1990s and 2000s, two running backs likely come to mind: LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk.

The news this week that Tomlinson was retiring likely made many of us flash back to huge seasons gone by -- years we will see fewer and fewer of now that football is much more reliant on the pass.

If you ignore Tomlinson's two seasons with the Jets in 2010 and '11 (please do) and focus solely on his nine years with the Chargers, the following numbers were part of an average season for L.T.:

-- 1,388 rushing yards

-- 15 rushing touchdowns

-- 59 receptions for 439 yards

-- Two receiving touchdowns

In his years with San Diego, Tomlinson played in 141 of a possible 144 games.

He rushed for at least 10 touchdowns in each of the nine seasons, and he had at least 15 total TDs (rushing and receiving) in six consecutive seasons (2002-07).

Tomlinson led the NFL in rushing touchdowns three times with San Diego, and he led the league in rushing twice.

Then there was 2006 -- his signature season. That year, Tomlinson rushed for 1,815 yards, scored a league-record 31 TDs (28 rushing) and had 56 catches for 508 yards.

If you think Faulk -- at least the Rams version -- was better, consider this:

In 2000, Faulk's best season -- when he rushed for 1,359 yards and 18 TDs, and caught 81 passes for 830 yards and eight scores -- Tomlinson had five more total TDs, 134 more total yards and 25 fewer receptions in his best season (2006). Advantage, L.T.

Faulk had four huge years (check out his pro football reference bio) -- 1998, his last year with the Colts, and 1999 to 2001, his first three seasons with the Rams.

L.T. had six -- 2002-07, a span in which he never rushed for fewer than 1,335 yards, he averaged 20 total TDs and he caught at least 51 passes each year.

Again: Advantage, L.T.

Happy retirement to the best fantasy football running back many of us will ever see.

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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Fantasy football: Marshawn Lynch trade impact, more RB analysis

I know what you're thinking. What are we going to do without Julius Jones as a bye-week option to get 14 carries for 39 yards and no touchdowns now that he's been released by Seattle to make room for Marshawn Lynch?

Our condolences to Jones aside, the trade of Lynch from the Bills to the Seahawks helps the owners who hung on to the disappointing running back who totaled 2,151 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns, and caught 65 passes for 484 yards and one TD in his first two NFL seasons. The last two years, counting 2010, Lynch has rushed for 614 yards and scored two TDs in 17 games.

He should be the featured back for a team that's an improvement over the Bills (which team isn't?), but he's still likely no better than a No. 3 back in 12-team leagues.

As for new, old teammate Justin Forsett (the two played together at Cal), the back who had 36 carries and five receptions the last two weeks for the Seahawks is now a fantasy reserve in any format until we have a better idea of how the carries will be divided. The guess is Lynch will get most of the opportunities, and Forsett will be a third-down back who will get eight to 10 touches per game.

The Seahawks are off in Week 5, but the Bills are not. Lynch's former team will now give more chances to Fred Jackson, who rushed for 1,062 yards and caught 46 passes for 371 yards and scored four TDs in 2009. Jackson will share the load with rookie C.J. Spiller, who has been disappointing thus far (94 combined rushing and receiving yards, one receiving TD).

Sunday, the Bills will play host to the Jaguars, who rank 12th against the run but have allowed six rushing TDs (only Buffalo has given up more).

If you're looking for a second or third running back, Jackson is a decent start this week. I wouldn't play Spiller unless you're desperate.

Smooth Torain

Ryan Torain was one of the top targets on the waiver wire in many leagues this week, and the news got more encouraging Wednesday, when it was disclosed that Clinton Portis would miss 4 to 6 weeks with a groin injury.

Torain rushed for 70 yards and a TD in the Redskins' win over the Eagles in the McNabb Bowl, and the schedule during Portis' absence is favorable.

Sunday, Washington will host Green Bay (No. 25 vs. the run), followed by a home game against Indianapolis (No. 29 vs. the run, five rushing TDs allowed) and road games against Chicago (No. 8, five TDs) and Detroit (No. 26, five TDs). Torain is a top-20 back most weeks, and don't expect Portis to be ready after the Redskins' Week 9 bye.

Time to trade L.T.?

You already know a seemingly rejuvenated LaDainian Tomlinson is a must-start after scoring three touchdowns and averaging 6.1 yards per carry in his first four games with the Jets. But will he continue to be a top-10 back, as he is currently in point-per-reception formats?

That's doubtful, and you have to figure the Jets want to keep 25-year-old Shonn Greene heavily involved in the offense. The second-year back had 22 carries for 117 yards (to Tomlinson's 19 for 133 and two TDs) last week in the Jets' rout of Buffalo, and for the season, he has 54 touches to L.T.'s 68.

They should continue to share, and Tomlinson should continue to produce, but if you have a running-back surplus, you might want to explore trading Tomlinson.

Big name. A value that likely has reached its apex for a 31-year-old with almost 3,000 career carries.

Ideal trade bait.

Coming Friday: In the print editions and on the N-H's online sports section, we'll have a column analyzing the impact of Randy Moss' trade from the Patriots to the Vikings.

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Fantasy football: Shonn Greene's declining value and more running back analysis

I assumed Shonn Greene -- with or without LaDainian Tomlinson in green and white -- would be a top-12 running back this season.

You might have, too.

After Monday night, when Greene had five carries for 18 yards and fumbled twice on six touches, we're left to wonder how much of an impact Tomlinson's signing might have on Greene, who caught our attention by rushing for 304 yards and averaging 5.6 yards per carry in the Jets' three playoff games last season.

Tomlinson, in the first game of his post-Chargers career, had 78 yards on 13 touches, looking surprisingly spry against the Ravens' stingy defense.

This week, the Jets will play host to the Patriots, who ranked 13th against the run and allowed only six rushing TDs last season.

You never want to overreact because of one game, but I wouldn't play Greene or L.T. against the Pats.

Around the league

Let's take a quick look at some of the more muddled backfields from a fantasy perspective:

-- Buffalo: C.J. Spiller was a preseason darling, and he might be a future stud, but right now, this looks like a mess. Spiller had 11 touches for 12 yards last week, and Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch will get work. Together, the three combined for 46 total yards on 22 touches. I'd sit Spiller against Green Bay. The other two shouldn't be starting options unless an injury or poor play knocks someone out of the equation.

-- Carolina: DeAngelo Williams had 16 carries to Jonathan Stewart's five in Week 1. I wouldn't read too much into that yet. Stewart should be a flex option Sunday vs. the Buccaneers.

-- Chicago: Is Matt Forte back? We can only hope. Almost as encouraging as the second-year running back's receiving stats last week was the fact he received 24 touches to Chester Taylor's 12.

-- Cleveland: For now, it's a tandem. But I'd expect Eric Mangini to wise up and give up Jerome Harrison, not Peyton Hillis, the lion's share of the load.

-- Dallas: More sharing, more frustration. Marion Barber and Felix Jones each had 10 touches last week, and Tashard Choice seven. Long term, Jones should be the best play, but Barber is the most enticing starting option Sunday at home against the Bears.

-- Denver: It's Knowshon Moreno's show for now, but you have to wonder if the Broncos' trade for Laurence Maroney will mean another dreaded tandem in a few weeks.

-- Indianapolis: Good news, Joseph Addai owners. Your back received 10 carries, and Donald Brown's only touch was a reception.

-- Miami: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are sharing, as expected, but both are useful, especially Brown, at least until he gets hurt.

-- New Orleans: With Mike Bell in Philadelphia, Pierre Thomas (71 rushing yards, one TD, three receptions for 15 yards in Week 1) is an every-week starter. Reggie Bush is a flex play, at best, in deep PPR leagues.

-- New England: Fred Taylor, at age 34 (94 in running back years), had 71 yards on 14 carries last week. With Maroney gone, he seems to be the best option, but he should be a flex play only in 12-team or deeper leagues most weeks. I wouldn't play him Sunday at the Jets.

-- New York Giants: There seems to be a changing of the guard, from Brandon Jacobs (12 carries for 44 yards last week) to the electric Ahmad Bradshaw (76 yards rushing, one TD, two catches for 17 yards in Week 1). Bradshaw is a decent play Sunday night at Indy. Jacobs is not.

-- Oakland: Darren McFadden had a huge game (150 total yards, six receptions, one TD), but most of the points he accumulated were in garbage time against the Pats. Also keep in mind that McFadden posted those numbers with Michael Bush out. The latter is expected to return this week. McFadden is still a decent option this week against the Rams, who ranked 27th against the run and gave up 24 rushing TDs in 2009.

-- Seattle: Another mess. Justin Forsett was productive (6 yards per touch), but received only seven carries -- to eight by Julius Jones and six by Leon Washington. Sit 'em all.

-- Tampa Bay: It's Cadillac Williams' show, until he joins Ronnie Brown on injured reserve.

Quick slants

-- It's much too soon to trust Derek Anderson (297 yards, one TD last week), but he has the weapons. I'm tempted, but have seen too many bad Browns games to make the move.

-- Anquan Boldin has relegated Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to bench spots. Boldin had seven catches for 110 yards last week, compared to Mason's two for 21 and Houshmandzadeh's one for 27. I still believe in Mason, but wouldn't play him until the schedule softens.

-- I believe in Legedu Naanee. And you should, too.

-- I don't believe in any Jets receiver (or tight end Dustin Keller) until Santonio Holmes returns from his four-game suspension, and even then it will be difficult to play the former Buckeye with Mark Sanchez throwing to him (or trying futilely to do so). Not counting the playoffs, Sanchez hasn't thrown for 250 yards or two touchdowns since he did both in Week 8 of 2009.

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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Fantasy football: Playoff pools, top RBs

Fifteen players rushed for 1,000 yards this season -- tying the 2001 campaign for the lowest number of four-figure rushers since 1999.

Of the 15, only five made the postseason (think the game has changed?), which makes choosing the top backs for playoff pools difficult, especially considering four of the five play for teams seeded fourth or lower (Thomas Jones, Ray Rice, Ryan Grant and Cedric Benson) -- making them a risk to be one-and-done.

Before we get to the rankings, here is a link for the top quarterbacks, posted Monday.

RUNNING BACKS


10. Marion Barber, Cowboys: He ran for 932 yards and seven TDs, but didn't score in two games against the Eagles (Dallas' opponent Saturday night) and was outplayed by Felix Jones down the stretch.

9. Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Prior to resting for much of last week's loss to the Packers, the rookie from Ohio State had a three-game stretch in which he tallied 319 total yards and three touchdowns.

8. Cedric Benson, Bengals: He has 1,362 total yards in 13 games, and he has a decent chance to play twice.

7. Thomas Jones, Jets: Between Benson and Jones, one will play in Round 2, and if it's the latter, he could be a threat to have a big game against the Colts. Jones finished third in the NFL with 1,402 yards rushing and had 14 TDs.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens: With 1,339 rushing yards, 78 receptions and 2,041 total yards, he has the best stats of any postseason back who doesn't go by All Day, but the Ravens will be lucky to play more than once in the playoffs. Rice, who has eight TDs, frequently loses goal-line carries to Willis McGahee.

5. Ryan Grant, Packers: He was a disappointment to many fantasy owners until the final four weeks, when he accounted for six of his 11 TDs. Grant was seventh in the league with 1,253 rushing yards.

4. Pierre Thomas, Saints: He failed to top 800 yards on the ground and barely broke a sweat as the Saints went into cruise control the last three games (12 total attempts), but Thomas scored eight times and caught 39 passes. Plus, there's the likelihood he'll play two home games for a team that could advance to the Super Bowl.

3. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers: With 730 yards, L.T. didn't reach 1,000 for the first time in his nine-year career, but he did have 12 touchdowns -- 11 of which occurred in a nine-game stretch that ended in Week 16.

2. Joseph Addai, Colts: His rushing numbers (828 yards, 3.8 per carry) are less impressive than Jerome "Coach Mangini Held Me Back" Harrison, but Addai did have a TD in 11 of 15 games. He also caught 51 passes.

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: His 1,383 rushing yards ranked only fifth, but his 18 TDs on the ground were three more than the next-closest challenger (Maurice Jones-Drew), and Peterson also caught 43 passes (three more than his combined total from his first two seasons).

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

Darren Sproles, Chargers; Reggie Bush, Saints; Felix Jones, Cowboys; LeSean McCoy, Eagles; Mike Bell, Saints; Laurence Maroney, Patriots; Sammy Morris, Patriots; Tim Hightower, Cardinals; Brian Westbrook, Eagles; Donald Brown, Colts; Willis McGahee, Ravens; Shonn Greene, Jets; Fred Taylor, Patriots

Quick slants: Sproles has seven total TDs and 45 catches. ... Good luck finding a consistent back among the Patriots' three-headed monster of confusion. Maroney was the best of the bunch until he was benched after fumbling in Week 16. ... Bush has eight TDs and 47 catches, and Bell has five scores for the Saints, who certainly like to share the wealth. ... The electric Felix Jones has 49 carries for 258 yards (5.3) and nine receptions in his last four games. ... McCoy, after a promising start to his rookie season, had only 32 carries for 109 yards (3.4) in his last five regular-season games. Westbrook returned from a concussion to carry 14 times for 49 yards in the last two weeks. ... McGahee has 14 TDs (12 rushing, two receiving), including five games with two or more scores. ... Greene, a rookie from Iowa, has 29 carries for 157 yards in his last two contests.

WEEKLY SCHEDULE

Monday: Quarterbacks; Today: Running backs; Wednesday: Wide receivers; Thursday: Tight ends, kickers and defenses/special teams.

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Thursday, October 22, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 7

Michael Crabtree built quite a following of detractors during his seemingly senseless contract holdout. In the next few weeks, the 49ers receiver has a chance to get some of the critics back on his side.

"Some" being us fantasy football owners who can be swayed by the simple things -- catches, yards and touchdowns.

Crabtree, who didn't sign until Oct. 6, is expected to start Sunday at Houston. Big things were expected of the rookie after the draft; now, we'll be happy if he's better than Josh Morgan (and he can't get worse than Isaac Bruce).

Crabtree is owned in only 30 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, but he's worth a look in deeper leagues and should be scooped up in all keeper formats.

I wouldn't play him Sunday, although the matchup against the Texans' 19th-ranked pass defense is favorable. But I wouldn't be surprised if he was a decent starter in the coming weeks, when the 49ers face the bottom four teams in the league in pass defense -- Week 9 at Tennessee (No. 32 vs. the pass), Week 12 vs. Jacksonville (No. 30), Week 14 at Arizona (No. 31) and Week 16 vs. Detroit (No. 29). The Titans (19), Lions (17) and Jaguars (12) have allowed a combined 48 touchdown passes in 18 games, which bodes well for Crabtree.

And if you think the 49ers are rushing him by starting him 19 days after he signed, here are three numbers for you: 26, 369, 1. Those are the combined catches, yards and touchdowns for San Francisco starting receivers Morgan and Bruce in five games, which together are one fewer catch, 58 more yards and one fewer TD than Redskins tight end Chris Cooley, who has Jason Campbell as his QB.

Start 'em

-- We should know better than to get our hopes up, but LaDainian Tomlinson showed glimpses of the old L.T. on Monday night. Granted, he rushed for only 70 yards on 18 carries, had three catches for 30 yards and didn't score a touchdown, but he actually looked healthy for the first time since the opener. If you hesitated to play L.T. last week, I don't blame you, but he should return to your lineup the next two weeks. In that span, the Chargers play at the Chiefs (No. 27 vs. the run) and at home against the Raiders (No. 29). Combined, the teams are allowing 275.6 yards per game and have surrendered 13 rushing TDs.

-- Last Sunday night was a microcosm of Matt Forte's season. Jay Cutler and the Bears were moving the ball through the air, and Forte did nothing on the ground. And just when you got your hopes up, he fumbled twice near the goal line, failing to salvage an awful night by at least scoring a touchdown (wait, can you tell I drafted Forte third overall in the News-Herald PPR league?). As bad as he's been (294 yards rushing, 3.4 yards per carry, one TD), I would still play Forte the next two weeks, when Chicago plays at an Antwan Odom-less Cincinnati and at home against the Browns and their extremely generous run defense (No. 30, 165.3 yards per game, nine rushing TDs by the opposition).

Sit him


-- If you played Broncos receiver Eddie Royal on Monday night, we can only hope you also had Denver's defense and special teams, since that's probably the only way you received credit for Royal's kickoff and punt returns for touchdowns. Denver is off this week, then plays at Baltimore and at home vs. Pittsburgh. At this point, Royal, who had 91 catches as a rookie last season, can't be trusted. He's had one productive game (10 catches for 90 yards in Week 5) and five contests in which he's caught a combined eight passes for 58 yards, and he hasn't scored a TD other than on special teams all season.

Drop 'em

-- If you need the roster space with six teams on a bye in Week 7, running back Willis McGahee, whose Ravens have the week off, should be a prime candidate to go the way of any employee who fails to pay a fine imposed by Eric Mangini. In his last three games, McGahee has 13 carries for 12 yards and 15 touches total. Ray Rice has developed into one of the top two or three backs in PPR leagues, and McGahee will be lucky to get double-digit carries in any game the rest of the way.

-- Vikings rookie receiver Percy Harvin, who scored a touchdown in each of his first two NFL games, hasn't scored since and has had more than 51 receiving only once in Minnesota's last four contests. The electric rookie has also been bothered by a sore shoulder and has been the Vikings' fourth receiving option as Sidney Rice (18 catches for 363 yards and two TDs in his last four games) and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe (11 receptions and four TDs in his last three contests) have flourished. If you have limited room on your roster, call Harvin into your office and send him on his way (you have to be better at it than the Bengals' turk on "Hard Knocks").

Stat of the week


One: As in 100-yard games for Laurence Maroney since the start of the 2008 season. The Patriots running back finally got the lion's share of the workload last week with Fred Taylor out and Sammy Morris banged up, rushing for 123 yards and a TD on 16 carries and catching three passes for 10 yards.

If there was ever a week to play Maroney (well, other than last Sunday), this would seem to be it. The Patriots face the winless Buccaneers in London, and Morris is likely to sit because of a knee injury (Taylor has already been ruled out). Tampa Bay ranks 31st against the run, giving up 171.7 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt.

Can Maroney -- gasp -- record two 100-yard games in a row? Since he's a running back for the Patriots and Bill Belichick seems to take joy in giving four backs five to eight carries each, we can never be certain.

Still, I like Maroney's odds.

The way this season has gone, expect Tom Brady to throw for 500 yards and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to be New England's leading rusher with 24 yards on five carries.

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Saturday, October 3, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit, expanded playlist and more for Week 4

Before we get to the start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist, here are a few quick injury updates:

-- LaDainian Tomlinson (ankle) and Marion Barber (quadriceps) are expected to play Sunday. Tomlinson is no better than a low-end No. 2 running back against the Steelers, who rank sixth against the run. Barber is a decent play, but ESPN is reporting Tashard Choice will get the majority of the work. Since we officially have entered bye-week season, both backs should be considered No. 2 options.

-- Bucs running back Derrick Ward (knee) seems likely to sit this week, which is good news for Cadillac Williams owners in a game against the Redskins (No. 22 vs. the run). Same goes for anyone who picked up Ladell Betts, who should get the start against the Bucs if Clinton Portis (ankle and calf injuries) sits. Coach Jim Zorn said Portis is "50-50" for the matchup against a Tampa Bay run defense that is the league's second-worst.

-- Steelers running back Willie Parker is doubtful because of turf toe, which should clear the way for Rashard Mendenhall to get the most work of his career. Sunday's opponent, the Chargers, rank 26th vs. the run and have allowed four rushing touchdowns.

-- Lions running back Kevin Smith said he expects to play with a shoulder injury. Sunday's matchup at the Bears (No. 13 vs. the run) isn't favorable.

-- Two upper-echelon receivers, New England's Wes Welker (knee) and Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe (hamstring), likely will be game-time decisions. I would start both if they are active.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals, at Browns:
His yardage total the last two weeks (368) isn’t impressive, but Palmer has thrown four TD passes in that span and should be good for a couple scores against the Browns.

-- Glen Coffee, RB, 49ers, vs. Rams: The rookie takes over for the injured Frank Gore for a couple weeks, and he’s lucky enough to make his first start against the Rams’ 27th-ranked run defense.

-- Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Seahawks: I don’t think this former first-round fantasy pick will be the Colts’ top back for long, but he should be an effective play against Seattle’s No. 25 run defense.

-- Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, vs. Cowboys: The rookie has rushed for 165 yards and a TD on 38 carries the last two weeks, and he might reach 100 yards for the first time in his career against the Cowboys (No. 17 vs. the run).

-- Kevin Walter, WR, Texans, vs. Raiders: He had seven catches for 96 yards and a TD in his first game back from a hamstring injury, and he should make it two productive games in a row vs. Oakland.

More matchups I like:


Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets, at Saints; Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers, vs. Rams; Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks, at Colts; Cadillac Williams, RB, Buccaneers, at Redskins; Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers, vs. Chargers; Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders, at Texans; Santana Moss, WR, Redskins, vs. Buccaneers; Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks, at Colts; Devin Hester, WR, Bears, vs. Lions; Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts, vs. Seahawks; Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jaguars, vs. Titans

Three to sit


If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens, at Patriots: The pair have combined for 382 yards rushing, seven touchdowns (six by McGahee) and 17 receptions, but don’t anticipate more of the same vs. the Patriots, who rank 10th against the run and sixth vs. the pass.

-- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills, at Dolphins: He has a very favorable matchup for his season debut (the Dolphins rank 26th in stopping the run), but I would expect Lynch to take a back seat to the productive Fred Jackson for at least one more week.

More matchups I don’t like:


Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs, vs. Giants; Thomas Jones, RB, Jets, at Saints; Fred Taylor, RB, Patriots, vs. Ravens; Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers, vs. Steelers; Kevin Smith, RB, Lions, at Bears

Last week

Let’s just say we’ve had better start lists. Willis McGahee (67 yards rushing, two touchdowns) and Eli Manning (167 yards passing, two TDs, 9 rushing yards) were productive. Trent Edwards (156 yards passing, 13 yards rushing, one interception), Devery Henderson (three receptions for 40 yards) and Darren Sproles (41 yards rushing, two catches for 14 yards) were duds.

The sit list was 2-for-3, as Thomas Jones (20 yards rushing, one catch for 2 yards) and Lee Evans (four receptions for 31 yards) were good calls, and Joseph Addai (63 yards rushing, three catches for 8 yards and a TD) was not.

Playlist
QUARTERBACKS

1. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. Seahawks (No. 7 vs. the pass)
2. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Lions (No. 30)
3. Drew Brees, Saints, vs. Jets (No. 5)
4. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Raiders (No. 14)
5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Vikings (No. 4)
6. Eli Manning, Giants, at Chiefs (No. 20)
7. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Ravens (No. 17)
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, vs. Chargers (No. 8)
9. Philip Rivers, Chargers, at Steelers (No. 15)
10. Carson Palmer, Bengals, at Browns (No. 16)
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys, at Broncos (No. 2)
12. Mark Sanchez, Jets, at Saints (No. 22)
13. Joe Flacco, Ravens, at Patriots (No. 6)
14. Shaun Hill, 49ers, vs. Rams (No. 25)
15. Kyle Orton, Broncos, vs. Cowboys (No. 27)
16. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. Packers (No. 13)
17. David Garrard, Jaguars, vs. Titans (No. 29)
18. Matt Cassel, Texans, vs. Giants (No. 1)
19. Trent Edwards, Bills, at Dolphins (No. 26)
20. Kerry Collins, Titans, at Jaguars (No. 32)
RUNNING BACKS
1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. Packers (No. 23 vs. the run)
2. Matt Forte, Bears, vs. Lions (No. 16)
3. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Jaguars (No. 14)
4. Steve Slaton, Texans, vs. Raiders (No. 28)
5. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, at Chiefs (No. 19)
6. Cedric Benson, Bears, at Browns (No. 30)
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, vs. Titans (No. 2)
8. Steven Jackson, Rams, at 49ers (No. 28)
9. Glen Coffee, 49ers, vs. Rams (No. 27)
10. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, vs Bills (No. 18)
11. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Vikings (No. 12)
12. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Seahawks (No. 25)
13. Julius Jones, Seahawks, at Colts (No. 21)
14. Fred Jackson, Bills, at Dolphins (No. 3)
15. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, vs. Cowboys (No. 17)
16. x-Clinton Portis or Ladell Betts, Redskins, vs. Buccaneers (No. 31)
17. Tashard Choice, Cowboys, at Broncos (No. 7)
18. Darren McFadden, Raiders, at Texans (No. 32)
19. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers, at Redskins (No. 22)
20. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, vs. Chargers (No. 26)
21. Marion Barber, Cowboys, at Broncos (No. 7)
22. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Steelers (No. 6)
23. Larry Johnson, Chiefs, vs. Giants (No. 20)
24. Thomas Jones, Jets, at Saints
x-If Portis is active, start him. Betts should only be used if Portis is out.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Raiders (No. 14 vs. pass)
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. Seahawks (No. 7)
3. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Ravens (No. 17)
4. Marques Colston, Saints, vs. Jets (No. 5)
5. Steve Smith, Giants, at Chiefs (No. 20)
6. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Vikings (No. 4)
7. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, at Browns (No. 16)
8. Calvin Johnson, Lions, at Bears (No. 12)
9. Donald Driver, Packers, at Vikings (No. 4)
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Steelers (No. 15)
11. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Chiefs (No. 20)
12. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, at Saints (No. 22)
13. Hines Ward, Steelers, vs. Chargers (No. 8)
14. Santana Moss, Redskins, vs. Buccaneers (No. 21)
15. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, vs. Cowboys
16. Kevin Walter, Texans, vs. Raiders (No. 14)
17. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, at Colts (No. 10)
18. Terrell Owens, Cowboys, at Dolphins (No. 26)
19. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, vs. Chargers (No. 8)
20. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, at Colts (No. 10)
21. Braylon Edwards, Browns, vs. Bengals (No. 19)
22. Derrick Mason, Ravens, at Patriots (No. 6)
23. Devin Hester, Bears, vs. Lions (No. 30)
24. Roy Williams, Cowboys, at Broncos (No. 2)
25. x-Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Ravens (No. 17)
26. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, vs. Packers (No. 13)
27. Pierre Garcon, Colts, vs. Seahawks (No. 7)
28. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, vs. Titans (No. 29)
29. Eddie Royal, Broncos, vs Cowboys (No. 27)
30. Earl Bennett, Bears, vs. Lions (No. 30)
31. x-Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, vs. Giants (No. 1)
32. Justin Gage, Titans, at Jaguars (No. 32)
33. Torry Holt, Jaguars, vs. Titans (No. 29)
34. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins, vs. Bills (No. 28)
35. Devery Henderson, Saints, vs. Jets (No. 5)
36. Lee Evans, Bills, at Dolphins (No. 26)
x-Make sure the banged-up Welker and Bowe are active.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: For my breakdown of the chances for success of Glen Coffee, Tashard Choice and more young running backs, click here. The link also includes our weekly fantasy football audiocast.

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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 3

The Giants didn't have a player with 600 yards receiving last season, when Plaxico Burress' suspension derailed their hopes of repeating as Super Bowl champs.

This year, they might have two 1,000-yard receivers, and somehow, both are owned in fewer than 26 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com.

Steve Smith (owned in 25.3 percent of the ESPN leagues) has caught at least six passes in each of the first two games and has 14 receptions for 214 yards and a TD on the season. Mario Manningham (owned in only 5.4 percent, a number that likely will be multiplied by at least 10 by Sunday), like Smith, caught 10 passes on Sunday. In two games, the second-year receiver has 188 yards and two TDs.

You shouldn't need me to tell you to start both.

If you're not convinced, take a glance at the Giants' next five games: Week 3, at Tampa Bay; Week 4, at Kansas City; Week 5, Oakland; Week 6, at New Orleans; Week 7, Arizona. The quintet rank 27th, 14th, 20th, 28th and 18th, respectively, against the pass this season. The five teams have combined to allow 15 touchdown passes and 2,480 yards passing in 10 games.

It's enough to make even Eli Manning give more than an awkward smile.

On to the rest of the no-huddle ...

-- On an Eagle's wing: I was against starting Kevin Kolb last week against the Saints, and 391 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions later, I'm backpedaling faster than Robert Henson, the Redskins' rookie who quit Twitter after calling the team's fans "dim wits."

Kolb was far from great against the Saints, but he showed enough that he's an intriguing option -- should Donovan McNabb sit a second straight week, as expected, because of a fractured rib -- Sunday at home against the Chiefs. Kolb is owned in a whopping 0.3 percent of the ESPN leagues, but if you're desperate for a quarterback, he's a halfway decent one-week option against Kansas City. The Chiefs have allowed 667 total yards and 51 points in their 0-2 start.

-- Jonesing for an alternative: Thomas Jones owners likely were encouraged by his strong Week 1 showing against the Texans. A game later, they're cursing yet another backfield time share gone bad.

In two games, Jones and Leon Washington both have 35 touches. Jones has better rushing numbers (34 carries for 161 yards, a 4.7-yard average, and two TDs), but Washington is a much better receiving option (six catches for 42 yards). In PPR leagues, Jones is all-or-nothing -- either he gets 100 yards and a score on the ground, or he's a dud.

It's telling that both backs received 14 carries last week against the Patriots, and with the Jets' early success, I wouldn't expect that to change. All of which means you should bench Jones this week against the Titans, who rank second to the Ravens in run defense in the early going. Tennessee has allowed the opposition to rush for only 99 yards on 52 carries, a 1.9 average, and zero TDs.

-- No rush, L.T.: Darren Sproles owners, the solution is simple. If LaDainian Tomlinson doesn't play for a second straight week because of a sprained ankle, play the diminutive back who is a huge asset as the primary ball-carrier in point-per-reception leagues. Sproles had only 10 carries for 26 yards last week against the Ravens, but he caught seven passes for 126 yards, including an 81-yard score. In two games, Sproles has 12 catches for 167 yards, and he's scored once in each game.

He'll never be a 20-carry back, but he certainly seems to be more effective than Tomlinson at this point in their careers. That said, I wouldn't start Sproles if Tomlinson is active, since the latter will get the majority of the carries when he plays.

-- Hightower power: Beanie Wells was the Cardinals' first-round pick last spring, but it's Tim Hightower who's playing like a fantasy starter. Hightower -- until this point known as the back who scored short touchdowns but did nothing else last season -- has rushed for an unimpressive 87 yards on 23 carries (3.8). PPR owners love the next stat, though: Hightower's 15 catches (12 in Week 1) for 133 yards.

If you're in a point-per-catch league, Hightower is a quality option the next three weeks against the Colts (No. 30 vs. the run, three rushing TDs allowed in two games), Texans (No. 32, 4 TD, 6.3 yards per carry) and Seahawks (No. 26, 2 TDs, a league-worst 7.1 yards per carry by the opposition).

Hightower is an ideal flex play in PPR leagues, and is an OK option in other formats, at least until Wells gets more than seven rushing attempts per game (a figure he has yet to surpass). The former Buckeye was forced to carry a football everywhere he went this week after fumbling twice last Sunday, and he's strictly a reserve until he takes over the featured role, which should happen later this season.

-- On deck: Thursday at 4 p.m., we'll have our weekly live chat. To ask a question or just watch the drama unfold, go to the homepage of News-Herald.com and look for the link to join the chat.

Saturday, we'll break down the disappointing starts of several first-round fantasy picks. That column can be read by going here. We'll also have the "big blog," including the expanded playlist and start-and-sit advice, early Saturday. That can be read on this blog, and on the N-H's main site.

Good luck and remember to curse the owner whose team is so bad he or she were awarded Manningham on waivers ahead of you.

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Thursday, September 17, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 2

We'll make this a weekly staple during the football season -- a mid-week collection of news and notes of relevance for fantasy owners.

On Saturdays, we'll have a column each week for the print editions and the N-H's Sports site (this week's will focus on Anthony Gonzalez's knee injury and a buy-and-sell for some of Week 1's surprise performances). There will also be an audiocast published that morning on our online Sports section.

Saturday will also be when we publish the "big blog," which includes the expanded playlist, five players to start, three to sit and much more. That can be found under "latest updates" on the homepage of our Web site and at www.News-Herald.com/Sports.

Thursday, we held our first live fantasy football chat. The plan for now is to have them every Thursday at 4 p.m. during the football season. Here's a recap of today's.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- Take a seat, L.T.: LaDainian Tomlinson is saying he plans to play this week against Baltimore, despite a sprained ankle that has required him to wear a protective boot. It's fair to wonder if he thinks he can help his team or if he's worried the Chargers are slowly realizing that Darren Sproles, at this stage of their respective careers, is better. If Tomlinson plays Sunday, I would bench him against the Ravens, who held the Chiefs to 29 rushing yards last week and ranked third against the run last season. Baltimore allowed only 3.6 yards per carry and a league-low four rushing touchdowns in 2008.

If L.T. sits for just the second time in his career, I would consider playing Sproles in point-per-reception leagues. The speedy back will never be a 20-carry player, but he has averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his career and is an effective receiver.

-- Cool your Jets: Mark Sanchez could be the next Matt Ryan -- a sporadic fantasy starter as a rookie. Or he could be the next Joe Flacco -- an effective rookie QB with minimal value in the fake game. The Jets quarterback was impressive in throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but let's not forget it was against the Texans, against whom opposing QBs had a 92.3 rating in 2008. Until we find out in which category Sanchez fits, I wouldn't consider him.

-- What's the catch?: Matt Forte owners should be slightly concerned, but not about the 2.2 yards per carry the Bears running back averaged in Week 1. The number I would focus on is one, as in the times Forte was targeted by Jay Cutler on Sunday night. Forte's greatest fantasy asset is his ability to rack up both rushing (1,238 yards as a rookie in 2008) and receiving numbers (63 catches for 477 yards). But in Cutler's Chicago debut, he targeted former Vanderbilt teammate Earl Bennett 14 times, yet threw only six passes to tight end Greg Olsen, four to Devin Hester and one to Forte. That has to change if Forte is to remain worthy of a first-round fantasy pick.

-- Too much sharing: As expected, the number of teams splitting carries is more frustrating than an Eric Mangini injury report. Preseason Achilles injury and all, Jonathan Stewart (11 rushing attempts Sunday) is still around to haunt owners of DeAngelo Williams (14 carries). Baltimore has two effective backs (Ray Rice and Willis McGahee) and a fullback (LeRon McClain) who swipes goal-line carries, and the Bucs' time share now includes a rejuvenated (at least until he gets hurt) Cadillac Williams (our condolences on the late draft pick, Earnest Graham owners).

Did we mention Leon Washington got just five fewer carries than Jets teammate Thomas Jones in Week 1, or that Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno each had only eight attempts for Denver at Cincinnati? Then there's the electric Ahmad Bradshaw, who seems to be ready to fill Derrick Ward's former role as the lightning to Brandon Jacobs' thunder. Jacobs had 16 carries for 46 yards last week -- to Bradshaw's 12 for 60.

Rookie Donald Brown had 11 carries for 33 yards in his Colts debut (starter Joseph Addai has 17 for 42),and Beanie Wells' first game as a Cardinal featured seven carries for 29 yards (Tim Hightower had eight carries for 15 yards and possibly the most surprising stat line of the weekend: 12 catches for 121 yards).

Aside from Hightower's receiving totals, which won't happen again, the only encouraging numbers to come from from the Backfield-By-Committee Division were these: 14, 79, 1. Those were Marion Barber's attempts, yards and touchdowns for Dallas at Tampa Bay, compared to Felix Jones' six carries for 22 yards. If Barber continues to get the majority of the touches, he should regain his 2007 status as a high-end No. 2 fantasy back.

-- Closing number: 25.0. That's Eagles backup Kevin Kolb's passer rating in 45 career attempts, which have generated zero touchdowns and four interceptions. We'll address Donovan McNabb's rib injury more in Saturday's blog, but until then, if you are a McNabb owner and are considering using Kolb if McNabb doesn't play, don't. Of McNabb's three backups, the one who might have the greatest value the rest of the season wasn't even on any team's roster in Week 1: Jeff Garcia. Sorry, Michael Vick. I'm no offensive coordinator (even though I can run the no-huddle), but I doubt the latter will have any fantasy impact this season.

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Monday, August 24, 2009

Fantasy football rankings: Running backs

Before we get to the rankings for the most important position in fantasy, let me be master of the obvious: It's good to have the No. 1 overall pick in your league.

This year, it's almost as crucial as it was during the LaDainian Tomlinson glory years.

And the reason has nothing to do with the expectation that Adrian Peterson will outscore every other running back this season. In point-per-reception leagues, he almost certainly won't.

It instead has everything to do with the fact that there's no clear-cut No. 2 pick behind him. I'd give the slightest of edges to Matt Forte over Maurice Jones-Drew, but owners in non-PPR leagues certainly have to target Michael Turner.

There are questions regarding every back on this list. Will Forte and Slaton experience a sophomore slump? Will Turner and DeAngelo Williams be nearly as great as they were in 2008? Will the slimmed-down LenDale White cut further into Chris Johnson's scoring? Will Steven Jackson stay healthy? Will L.T. continue to decline?

There are no such concerns with Peterson, who is the football version of Albert Pujols. Take him first, and don't even consider anyone else.

In PPR leagues, Peterson was outscored by the likes of Williams, Forte, Jones-Drew, Turner, Tomlinson, Slaton, Brian Westbrook and even Thomas Jones last season. That was because of two factors: His less-than-average receiving totals (21 catches for 125 yards) and his decrease in touchdowns (from 13 as a rookie in 2007 to 10 last season).

Regardless, Peterson rushed for 1,760 yards in his second season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, and with a decent -- albeit aging and waffling -- quarterback, the addition of Percy Harvin and a good offensive line in Minnesota, you should have every reason to believe he will average more than 100 yards and one TD per game.

Will that be enough to vault him to the top of the scoring leaders in PPR leagues? Probably not. But you don't want to miss with the top overall pick, and Peterson shouldn't disappoint you in any format.

Rank, player, team GP-Yds-TD-Rec-Yds-TD
1. Adrian Peterson, Min 16-1,760-10-21-125-0
2. Matt Forte, Chi 16-1,238-8-63-477-4
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac 16-824-12-62-565-2
4. Michael Turner, Atl 16-1,699-17-6-41-0
5. Steve Slaton, Hou 16-1,282-9-50-377-1
6. Chris Johnson, Ten 15-1,228-9-43-260-1
7. DeAngelo Williams, Car 16-1,515-18-22-121-2
8. Steven Jackson, StL 12-1,042-7-40-379-1
9. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD 16-1,110-11-52-426-1
10. Frank Gore, SF 14-1,036-6-43-373-2
11. Brian Westbrook, Phi 14-936-9-54-402-5
12. Brandon Jacobs, NYG 13-1,089-15-6-36-0
13. Clinton Portis, Was 16-1,487-9-28-218-0
14. Marion Barber, Dal 15-885-7-52-417-2
15. Kevin Smith, Det 16-976-8-39-286-0
16. Ryan Grant, GB 16-1,203-4-18-116-1
17. Ronnie Brown, Mia 16-916-10-33-254-0
18. Thomas Jones, NYJ 16-1,312-13-36-207-2
19. Pierre Thomas, NO 15-625-9-31-284-3
20. Joseph Addai, Ind 12-544-5-25-206-2
21. Marshawn Lynch, Buf 15-1,036-8-47-300-1
22. Darren McFadden, Oak 13-499-4-29-285-0
23. Derrick Ward, TB 16-1,025-2-41-384-0
24. Knowshon Moreno, Den ROOKIE
25. Jonathan Stewart, Car 16-836-10-8-47-0
26. Larry Johnson, KC 12-874-5-12-74-0
27. Willie Parker, Pit 11-791-5-3-13-0
28. Jamal Lewis, Cle 16-1,002-4-23-178-0
29. Reggie Bush, NO 10-404-2-52-440-4
30. LenDale White, Ten 16-773-15-5-16-0
31. Ray Rice, Bal 13-454-0-33-273-0
32. Cedric Benson, Cin 12-797-2-20-185-0
33. Beanie Wells, Ari ROOKIE
34. Julius Jones, Sea 15-698-2-14-66-0
35. Willis McGahee, Bal 13-671-7-24-173-0
36. Earnest Graham, TB 10-563-4-23-174-0
37. Donald Brown, Ind ROOKIE
38. Fred Jackson, Buf 16-571-3-37-317-0
39. Felix Jones, Dal 6-266-3-2-10-0
40. Sammy Morris, NE 13-727-7-17-161-0
41. Leon Washington, NYJ 16-448-6-47-355-2
42. Fred Taylor, NE 13-556-1-16-98-0
43. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG 15-355-1-5-42-1
44. Darren Sproles, SD 16-330-1-29-342-5
45. Rashard Mendenhall, Pit 4-58-0-2-17-0
46. Tim Hightower, Ari 16-399-10-34-237-0
47. LeSean McCoy, Phi ROOKIE
48. Chester Taylor, Min 16-399-4-45-399-2
49. Ricky Williams, Mia 16-659-4-29-219-1
50. Jerious Norwood, Atl 16-489-4-36-338-2
51. Laurence Maroney, NE 3-93-0-0-0-0
52. LeRon McClain, Bal 16-902-10-19-123-1
53. Correll Buckhalter, Den 14-369-2-26-324-2
54. Justin Fargas, Oak 14-853-1-10-52-0
55. Jamaal Charles, KC 16-357-0-27-272-1
56. T.J. Duckett, Sea 16-172-8-0-0-0
57. Tashard Choice, Dal 16-472-2-21-185-0
58. Maurice Morris, Det 13-574-0-19-136-2
59. Ladell Betts, Was 13-206-1-22-200-0
60. Brandon Jackson, GB 13-248-1-30-185-0

QUICK SLANTS
Turner, who has 17 catches in 75 career games, is even less of a help in the receiving department than Peterson. ... With Fred Taylor in New England, Jones-Drew's touches per game should increase from its absurdly low 2008 total (16.2) to at least the low 20s. ... The Rams' Jackson always produces, but he's also frequently hurt (12 games played in each of the last two seasons). ... Gore has a combined 157 catches the last three years. ... The Cowboys' Barber averaged 14 TDs per season in 2006 and '07. ... The Jets' Jones scored only two TDs in 2007. ... In 20 games played the last two seasons, the Chiefs' Johnson has nine touchdowns. ... The Browns' Lewis (1,552 total yards and 11 TDs in 2007) could provide value as a third running back, but not if he repeats his 2008 production. ... The Bengals' Benson has 12 touchdowns in 47 career games. ... A possible sleeper: Buffalo's Fred Jackson, who should be the featured back with Marshawn Lynch suspended for the first three weeks. Jackson is more of an asset in PPR leagues.

Next: Wide receivers

Linked in: For a complete list of our fantasy football rankings, click here. ... To read our fantasy football previews, click here for Mark Podolski's 25 bold predictions, here for my column on the most muddled backfields and here for the best crutches, key storylines and injuries.

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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Fantasy focus: LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson

LaDainian Tomlinson turned 30 today.

In lieu of cards and cake, the Chargers running back and this decade's fantasy MVP (who needs a Super Bowl when you have that title?) asks that you select him in the first round of your fantasy draft in two months.

I laughed, too, until I researched fantasy football's top 12 for a column I wrote for the News-Herald's print and online editions.

Two players I wasn't expecting to crack the top 12 were Tomlinson and Rams running back Steven Jackson. In 2006, they were the best fantasy had to offer.

In 2008, one looked old and slow (Tomlinson, who has now reached the age at which most running backs' careers go the way of a "Sopranos" character), and the other played in only 12 games for the second straight season (Jackson).

Thus, they can't be first-round picks in 2009, right?

That's what I thought. But consider the following names: Drew Brees, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Tom Brady, Brandon Jacobs, Calvin Johnson, Peyton Manning.

In point-per-reception leagues, would you take any of those players over Tomlinson or Jackson? When you know even in bad seasons, the pair averaged 17.4 and 19.2 points per game, respectively? When you know you can always get an effective quarterback and wide receiver in Rounds 2 and 3?

Those are questions quite a few of us will be asking ourselves on draft day. Clearly, Brees is the safest pick of the aforementioned group. Clearly, Brady could score more points than anyone next season.

Still, I always defer to the running back.

In the case of Jackson, it's simple. If he's healthy -- which too often he wasn't in 2007 and '08 because of quadriceps, groin and back injuries -- he's a stud. In 2006, he rushed for 1,528 yards, caught 90 passes for 806 yards and scored 16 TDs. He closed last season by rushing 86 times for 360 yards and three scores in the last three weeks, a span that included 10 catches for 101 yards.

Because of the injury risk, I wouldn't select Jackson over the likes of Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson and DeAngelo Williams. But if he's there at No. 10, I'd take the chance. And I wouldn't be surprised if he outscored Peterson this season.

Tomlinson is a more difficult call.

There's the milestone birthday. There's the fact he averaged only 3.8 yards per carry last season -- his worst norm since his rookie season of 2001. There's the presence of Darren Sproles, the electric back the Chargers value so highly they guaranteed him a $6.6 million salary in 2009.

At No. 11, however, everyone has flaws, aside from Brees, whom I am only downgrading because of his position. Manning doesn't have the weapons he used to, Brady is coming back from a very serious knee injury, Gore and Westbrook are injury prone, etc.

Tomlinson has never rushed for fewer than 1,110 yards in his eight-year career. He's never failed to reach double digits in touchdowns. He has never caught fewer than 51 passes.

In PPR leagues, even with Sproles as the third-down back, L.T. should score a dozen touchdowns and average 100 total yards per game.

That's a down year for the old L.T.

That's still enough for a late first-round pick.

But hold the cake. He's not 29 anymore.

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