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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Fantasy football: Running backs take an early hit

The danger of ranking running backs in August was made perfectly clear last Thursday, when we learned Browns rookie Trent Richardson would have knee surgery.

Later that night, the Chargers' Ryan Mathews fractured his clavicle in San Diego's preseason opener and is expected to miss 4 to 6 weeks.

You could say we've made some changes to these rankings.

Some notable updates from the running back rankings we posted Aug. 8 (the above link reflects our current rankings):

-- Chargers coach Norv Turner said Mathews' injury is "not so bad." I can only hope. In a keeper league in which I participate, I traded for Mathews prior to training camp and now must decide if he will still be one of my three keepers (probably).

The Chargers open the season Monday, Sept. 10 at Oakland --  31 days after Mathews' surgery. The guess here is Mathews will return in Week 2 against Tennessee, and considering the lack of studs at the position, I think he remains a top-10 player at the position.

Yes, injuries are a concern -- Mathews has played 26 games in two years. But consider this: Last season, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry and caught 50 passes. In 14 games, he racked up 1,546 total yards.

Would you rather have Mathews coming off a shoulder injury or Adrian Peterson following an ACL tear.

I'll take Mathews.

-- Richardson, who is expected to start the Browns' opener against the Eagles, dropped from No. 14 to 17.

-- The (expected) uncertainty of the backfield situation in Washington -- Mike Shanahan, tormenting fantasy owners since 1995 -- has resulted in Roy Helu dropping from No. 24 to 29 at running back. Redskins teammate Evan Royster, who could be Washington's featured back (your guess is as good as mine when it comes to Shanahan), went from unranked in the top 50 to No. 41. Another Redskin, the (always) beat-up Tim Hightower, dropped from No. 41 to out of the rankings.

-- Ronnie Brown, who would start the season opener for the Chargers if Mathews can't go, is in the top 50 at No. 47. Don't get too excited about Brown, who averaged 3.2 yards per carry in a limited role for the Eagles last season.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Carson Palmer analysis, plus Week 7 waiver-wire picks

Late Monday night, I wrote about how rare big-name trades were in the NFL.

About 12 hours later, the Bengals and Raiders made that paragraph appear more dated than a sports broadcast in standard definition.

Ladies and gentlemen, Carson Palmer is a Raider -- all logic, and high draft picks, be damned.

Yes, Palmer threw for 3,970 yards and 26 touchdowns last season. He also threw 20 interceptions.

In 36 games since the start of the 2008 season, he has 50 TD passes and 37 picks.

Even in 2007, when he threw for a career-high 4,131 yards, he tossed 20 interceptions.

His only truly elite years were 2005 and '06, when he had a combined 7,871 yards passing, 60 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.

Now he will be force-fed a Raiders offense that is run-first, led by the electric Darren McFadden (610 yards rushing, 5.5 yards per carry, four TDs on the ground).

Oakland has rushed for 960 yards and 10 TDs in six games. The Raiders are averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

It is no wonder, then, that Jason Campbell, prior to his injury Sunday against the Browns, had thrown for a pedestrian 1,170 yards and six TDs.

Palmer isn't going to be asked to save the Raiders. He will be asked not to screw them up -- a feat of which Oakland obviously believed Kyle Boller was more than capable.

In Oakland, Palmer will have Darrius Heyward-Bey, once maligned as another terrible Al Davis draft pick, as his top target. Heyward-Bey has 17 receptions for 296 yards and one TD in his last three games.

After that, it's Denarius Moore (who had five catches for 146 yards and a TD against Buffalo, but has eight receptions for 62 yards and a score in his other four games), tight end Kevin Boss and the running backs.

All of which is a long way of saying don't expect Palmer to provide a big boost to your fantasy team.

He should be considered a high-end backup at best, and a decent bye-week fill-in depending on the matchup.

The upside: You won't have to give up a first- and second-round pick to acquire him on the waiver wire.

While we're on the subject, here are five more waiver-wire candidates this week. All are available in more than two-thirds on the leagues on ESPN.com.

1. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (owned in 3.3 percent of the ESPN leagues): Felix Jones will miss at least this week, and likely more, with a high ankle sprain, leaving Murray and Tashard Choice to share the carries. Of the two, Murray should receive the most work. The rookie, a third-round pick from Oklahoma, had 10 carries for 32 yards and one catch for 7 yards last week. Choice, meanwhile, had five rushes for 14 yards and three catches for 16 yards. He is the better receiver of the two.

Murray is a quality play this week against the Rams, who own the league's worst run defense at 163 yards per game. The latter number is so bad Choice should be a flex candidate in deeper leagues if you need bye-week help.

2. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals (owned in 5.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): You'll have to wait a week, since Cincinnati is on a bye, but Scott should be the Bengals' featured back in Week 8 against Seattle. Cedric Benson had his three-game suspension reduced to one Tuesday and likely will serve it next week. Scott should get most of the work against Seattle, which, surprisingly, ranks seventh against the run (97.8 yards per game). The Seahawks -- attention owners of Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty -- are allowing a league-low 3.1 yards per carry.

3. Greg Little, WR, Browns (owned in 8.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): He's clearly the Browns' No. 1 receiver (insert your joke, or insult, here), and the rookie has six receptions in each of his last two games. He's not going to score seven or eight TDs (heck, he has yet to reach the end zone once), but in point-per-reception formats, Little could be worth 12 to 15 points per game because of the amount of targets he should receive.

4. Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals (owned in 36.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): OK, so he might not be the best role model (allegedly), or the smartest guy around. But he does have two 100-yard games in his last five, including a six-catch, 101-yard performance last week. Who needs Palmer when you have Andy Dalton? (Remember, the franchise formerly known as the Bungles has this week off.)

5. Ronnie Brown, RB, Lions (owned in 15.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): I'll be blunt: Brown is of value only if Jahvid Best is forced to sit because of concussion-like symptoms. If that's the case, Brown should share the load with Maurice Morris on Sunday against the Falcons. Brown had a disappointing 2010 and had 13 carries for 38 yards (a 2.9 average) with the Eagles this season. At best, he's a flex play for running back-needy owners if Best is inactive this week.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos (owned in 40.6 percent of the ESPN leagues); Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (12.2 percent); David Nelson, WR, Bills (45.9 percent); Jackie Battle, RB, Chiefs (26.3 percent); Donald Brown, Colts (1.6 percent).

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Bears-Dolphins game

START 'EM

Bears:
RB Matt Forte, K Robbie Gould, defense and special teams

Dolphins:
WR Brandon Marshall, K Dan Carpenter, defense and special teams

Quick slants:
Forte has rushed for only 159 yards and been held out of the end zone in his last three games, but he has six TDs overall and is an asset in PPR leagues (30 receptions for 324 yards and three scores). ... Gould has 59 points in nine games, but scored nine last week and should have a few field-goal attempts in what could be a low-scoring game. ... The Bears' defense ranks fourth in total yards (301.9 per game), second in points (16.2) and second against the run (82.3 yards per game). ... Marshall, as we pointed out yesterday, hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3. He has 18 catches for 185 yards in his last four games and has been limited to 71 yards or fewer in eight of nine contests with Miami. He's due (we can only hope). ... The Dolphins' defense ranks eighth in total yards (314.1 per game), 13th in points allowed (21.3) and sixth against the pass (204). ... Carpenter, with 80 points in nine games, is fantasy's best kicker. Not counting bonuses for field goals of 40 yards or more, he has scored 11 or more points in four of his last five games and has 58 points in that span.

SIT 'EM

Bears:
QB Jay Cutler, RB Chester Taylor, WR Johnny Knox, WR Devin Hester, TE Greg Olsen

Dolphins:
QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Ronnie Brown, RB Ricky Williams, WR Davone Bess, WR Brian Hartline, TE Anthony Fasano

Quick slants: Cutler has five touchdowns in his last two games, but had as many interceptions (seven) as touchdown passes in his first six contests. ... Taylor has a combined 21 carries the last two weeks, but has 306 total yards and one TD on the season. ... Knox has 32 receptions for 617 yards, but he's scored only one TD and has had four or fewer receptions in six of nine games. ... Hester, with 24 catches for 243 yards and two TDs, continues to prove he's much better as a returner than receiver. ... Olsen has a TD in two consecutive games, but has had 43 yards or fewer in all but one game and has nine receptions in his last five. ... Thigpen, who is making his first start since 2008 because of injuries to Chad Henne and Chad Pennington, was pretty good two years ago with the Chiefs (2,608 yards passing, 18 TDs, 386 yards rushing, three TDs), but I wouldn't play him against a Bears defense that has 14 interceptions and has allowed just six TD tosses. ... Brown has a score in two straight, but he has three TDs on the season and has rushed for 65 yards or fewer in seven of nine games. ... Williams, with 452 total yards on 36 fewer touches than Brown (137 to 101), has been more effective than his backfield mate, but you can't play him until he gets more opportunities. ... Bess has 48 catches, but has had 53 receiving yards or fewer in six of nine games and is averaging 44 yards with zero TDs in his last three. ... Hartline had five catches for 98 yards last week, but you don't want to take a chance on a No. 3 receiver who hasn't had a TD since Week 2 -- even if he is a former Buckeye. ... Fasano had a big Week 10 (five catches for 107 yards and one TD), but had a combined nine catches for 111 yards and zero scores in the three games prior to that.

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Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 9

Once in a while (OK, a lot), real life gets in the way of our fantasy lives as wanna-be general managers.

For that reason, we are getting to the usual quick takes from the week that was -- two days later than usual.

Let's take stock of what we've seen thus far ...

Stock up

-- Nate Burleson, WR, Lions: Yes, Matthew Stafford is out, but Stafford has been out for all but two games this season. Burleson has 20 receptions and two TDs in his last three games, and 14 catches for 160 yards in his last two. In four games since returning from injury, he has 24 catches for 266 yards and three scores.

-- Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins: Chad Pennington replacing Chad Henne at quarterback certainly can't hurt. Marshall has one TD all season, and it was in Week 3. In his last three games, he has 15 catches for 151 yards.

-- Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings: At least until Sidney Rice returns and Berrian moves to third on the depth chart. Berrian had nine receptions for 89 yards last week -- the Vikings' first game post-Moss Take II. If you need a third receiver, he's a decent play as long as Rice is on the PUP list.

-- Dwyane Bowe, WR, Chiefs:
That's now six TDs in his last four games after he had nine receptions and one TD in his first four.

Stock down


-- Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins: You probably weren't playing him anyway, but you might have held on to him, figuring Ronnie Brown would go down with an injury at some point. Instead, Brown had a productive Week 9, against the Ravens of all defenses (while he lingered on many of our benches), and Williams had all of one carry. What do with Brown from here on out is a mystery, but I'm inclined to play him, since he had 14 touches to Williams' one last week, and he had 99 total yards with the TD.

-- Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: He hasn't scored in his last four games, he has 38 receiving yards or fewer in three of his last four, and Jon Kitna is his quarterback. Kitna has thrown for 562 yards in two starts in place of Tony Romo, but he's been picked off six times and thrown only two TD passes.

Two-point conversion

-- Seyi Ajirotutu is a great name, and the Chargers receiver had a great game in Week 9 (four receptions for 111 yards and two TDs), but it was against Houston. The Texans are allowing a league-worst 298 passing yards per game, and the opposition has thrown for 20 touchdowns, with only five interceptions. There's also the fact that when Vincent Jackson returns from his suspension (Week 12) and Malcom Floyd returns from injury (possibly Week 11), Ajirotutu will be San Diego's No. 4 receiver, behind Jackson, Floyd and Patrick Crayton.

-- We'll be back Thursday with a start-and-sit list for the game between the Ravens and Falcons.

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Monday, October 18, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 6

Before we watch Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew go head-to-head tonight, and see whether Good Mike Sims-Walker (Weeks 2 and 4) or awful MSW (Weeks 1, 3 and 5) shows up under the watchful eyes of Jon "I Love Everyone" Gruden, let's get to some quick takes from the sixth Sunday of the NFL season.

-- Again, take your time, Clinton Portis. Those of us lucky enough to acquire Ryan Torain a few weeks ago are reaping the benefits. The Redskins running back had 20 carries for 100 yards and two touchdowns Sunday night, and he has 210 yards and three TDs on the ground in his last three games. He's a No. 2 back in any format.

-- Welcome back, Dwayne Bowe (six receptions, 108 yards and two TDs), but I still don't trust you. The Chiefs receiver had nine receptions and one TD in his first four contests.

Start 'em


-- Colts receiver Pierre Garcon, who has 10 receptions for 160 yards and one TD the last two weeks. Viewed as a top-20 receiver entering the season, Garcon was upstaged by Austin Collie in Weeks 1 and 2 (the former Mount Union standout had a combined four catches for 54 yards in the two games), then sat the next two contests because of a hamstring injury. He seems healthy now, and Peyton Manning continues to prove he can keep everyone happy -- Collie, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark each had at least six catches Sunday night.

-- Patriots receiver Deion Branch, who had nine receptions for 98 yards and a TD in his first game back with Tom Brady. The Pats spread the ball around as much as the Colts, but Branch seems to be the safest wide receiver option other than PPR machine Wes Welker. The latter had seven catches in his first game post-Moss.

-- Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb, as long as Andy Reid keeps starting him, of course. In two games with Michael Vick out with a rib injury, Kolb has completed 73.3 percent of his passes (44 of 60) for 579 yards, with four touchdowns and one interception. Now healthy (Kolb suffered a concussion in Week 1, which led to Vick's resurgence), he seems to be a top-10 fantasy QB when in Philly's lineup.

-- If Dolphins receiver Davone Bess is still available in your league (he's somehow owned in fewer than 19 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com), pick him up and play him every week in PPR formats. Bess has 19 receptions for 219 yards and two TDs in his last three games.

Sit 'em

-- Broncos receiver Eddie Royal, who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 and has seven catches for 68 yards and zero TDs the last two games. Royal had a promising first four weeks (25 receptions for 299 yards and two TDs), but now seems to be the No. 3 option behind Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney.

-- Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown, if you have the roster flexibility. Brown hasn't scored since Week 1, hasn't rushed for more than 80 yards in a game, and he has only 10 catches for 53 yards on the season. As a Brown owner, I also don't feel good about Ricky Williams' numbers the last two contests: 21 carries for 120 yards (5.7 average), five receptions for 44 yards and an average of 6.3 yards per touch.

Stock up

-- Seahawks receiver Mike Williams, who had 10 catches for 123 yards in his first game since Branch was traded to the Patriots. I wouldn't consider him an every-week starter (he had 11 receptions in his first four games), but Williams is the best fantasy receiving option on the Seahawks.

-- Lions receiver Nate Burleson, who has a touchdown in consecutive weeks and has 10 catches in that span. He is a No. 3 fantasy wideout.

Stock down

-- Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, who has zero touchdowns and one interception in his last two games. If you have two quality quarterbacks -- say Kolb, Kyle Orton or Ben Roethlisberger -- I'd start any of the three over Cutler.

Stat of the week

43: Cowboys running back Felix Jones' touches in his last two games. Jones had 10 receptions in Week 6 and clearly is Dallas' top back, and Wade Phillips finally realized it -- or he was told that was the case by Lord Jerry Jones, Ruler Of The Annual Underachievers.

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Fantasy football: Shonn Greene's declining value and more running back analysis

I assumed Shonn Greene -- with or without LaDainian Tomlinson in green and white -- would be a top-12 running back this season.

You might have, too.

After Monday night, when Greene had five carries for 18 yards and fumbled twice on six touches, we're left to wonder how much of an impact Tomlinson's signing might have on Greene, who caught our attention by rushing for 304 yards and averaging 5.6 yards per carry in the Jets' three playoff games last season.

Tomlinson, in the first game of his post-Chargers career, had 78 yards on 13 touches, looking surprisingly spry against the Ravens' stingy defense.

This week, the Jets will play host to the Patriots, who ranked 13th against the run and allowed only six rushing TDs last season.

You never want to overreact because of one game, but I wouldn't play Greene or L.T. against the Pats.

Around the league

Let's take a quick look at some of the more muddled backfields from a fantasy perspective:

-- Buffalo: C.J. Spiller was a preseason darling, and he might be a future stud, but right now, this looks like a mess. Spiller had 11 touches for 12 yards last week, and Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch will get work. Together, the three combined for 46 total yards on 22 touches. I'd sit Spiller against Green Bay. The other two shouldn't be starting options unless an injury or poor play knocks someone out of the equation.

-- Carolina: DeAngelo Williams had 16 carries to Jonathan Stewart's five in Week 1. I wouldn't read too much into that yet. Stewart should be a flex option Sunday vs. the Buccaneers.

-- Chicago: Is Matt Forte back? We can only hope. Almost as encouraging as the second-year running back's receiving stats last week was the fact he received 24 touches to Chester Taylor's 12.

-- Cleveland: For now, it's a tandem. But I'd expect Eric Mangini to wise up and give up Jerome Harrison, not Peyton Hillis, the lion's share of the load.

-- Dallas: More sharing, more frustration. Marion Barber and Felix Jones each had 10 touches last week, and Tashard Choice seven. Long term, Jones should be the best play, but Barber is the most enticing starting option Sunday at home against the Bears.

-- Denver: It's Knowshon Moreno's show for now, but you have to wonder if the Broncos' trade for Laurence Maroney will mean another dreaded tandem in a few weeks.

-- Indianapolis: Good news, Joseph Addai owners. Your back received 10 carries, and Donald Brown's only touch was a reception.

-- Miami: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are sharing, as expected, but both are useful, especially Brown, at least until he gets hurt.

-- New Orleans: With Mike Bell in Philadelphia, Pierre Thomas (71 rushing yards, one TD, three receptions for 15 yards in Week 1) is an every-week starter. Reggie Bush is a flex play, at best, in deep PPR leagues.

-- New England: Fred Taylor, at age 34 (94 in running back years), had 71 yards on 14 carries last week. With Maroney gone, he seems to be the best option, but he should be a flex play only in 12-team or deeper leagues most weeks. I wouldn't play him Sunday at the Jets.

-- New York Giants: There seems to be a changing of the guard, from Brandon Jacobs (12 carries for 44 yards last week) to the electric Ahmad Bradshaw (76 yards rushing, one TD, two catches for 17 yards in Week 1). Bradshaw is a decent play Sunday night at Indy. Jacobs is not.

-- Oakland: Darren McFadden had a huge game (150 total yards, six receptions, one TD), but most of the points he accumulated were in garbage time against the Pats. Also keep in mind that McFadden posted those numbers with Michael Bush out. The latter is expected to return this week. McFadden is still a decent option this week against the Rams, who ranked 27th against the run and gave up 24 rushing TDs in 2009.

-- Seattle: Another mess. Justin Forsett was productive (6 yards per touch), but received only seven carries -- to eight by Julius Jones and six by Leon Washington. Sit 'em all.

-- Tampa Bay: It's Cadillac Williams' show, until he joins Ronnie Brown on injured reserve.

Quick slants

-- It's much too soon to trust Derek Anderson (297 yards, one TD last week), but he has the weapons. I'm tempted, but have seen too many bad Browns games to make the move.

-- Anquan Boldin has relegated Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to bench spots. Boldin had seven catches for 110 yards last week, compared to Mason's two for 21 and Houshmandzadeh's one for 27. I still believe in Mason, but wouldn't play him until the schedule softens.

-- I believe in Legedu Naanee. And you should, too.

-- I don't believe in any Jets receiver (or tight end Dustin Keller) until Santonio Holmes returns from his four-game suspension, and even then it will be difficult to play the former Buckeye with Mark Sanchez throwing to him (or trying futilely to do so). Not counting the playoffs, Sanchez hasn't thrown for 250 yards or two touchdowns since he did both in Week 8 of 2009.

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Thursday, October 8, 2009

Fantasy football: Braylon Edwards trade and no-huddle offense for Week 5

If you're a Browns fan -- or the biggest LeBron James supporter this side of The Four Horsemen -- you might have been thrilled with the Braylon Edwards trade.

If you're a disgruntled fantasy owner who wasted a fourth-round pick on the butterfingered one, there's hope.

We might never again see the Edwards of 2007. The Jets better hope they don't see the Edwards of '08. I'd expect something in the middle -- think new teammate Jerricho Cotchery, only with slightly fewer receptions and more touchdowns.

If Edwards had stayed in Cleveland, he was destined for your bench after a four-game stretch in which he was good once (six catches for 92 yards in Week 2) and bad on three occasions (a combined four catches for 47 yards in Weeks 1, 3 and 4). Now, I'd be tempted to start him right away with the Jets.

Edwards is expected to open Monday night's game at Miami with the first team, and the Dolphins have struggled against the pass (No. 26 in the league). Following that matchup, the Jets play at the Raiders (No. 13 vs. the pass), against the Dolphins at home and, after a bye week, at home vs. the Jaguars (tied for last against the pass).

With apologies to Mohamed Massaquoi and Jerome Harrison, the Jets have a few more weapons to take the heat off Edwards.

If you have four solid receivers, you can afford to wait and see how much of an impact Edwards makes in the Big Apple. If your fourth receiver is on par with the likes of Massaquoi or Pierre Garcon, I'd take the chance that the former Brown will have a big game on ESPN.

Somewhere Eric Mangini is plotting his next $1,701 fine.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- Taylor-made: Just when it seemed as if we had the Patriots' running back situation figured out, news breaks that Fred Taylor will have ankle surgery and be out for an extended period. That leaves those of us looking for bye-week help contemplating the value of Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris.

Of the three, I'd expect Maroney to get the most carries, Faulk to get the most catches and Morris to be the most productive.

The latter rushed for 727 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, last season. Faulk is worth considering only in point-per-receptions leagues, a format in which he was quite effective as a bye-week flex play last season, when he rushed for 507 yards, caught 58 passes for 486 yards and scored six TDs.

Maroney, meanwhile, is a mystery wrapped inside an enigma covered by a Bill Belichick news conference. The 2006 first-round pick has 55 carries for 171 yards (3.1) and no touchdowns in seven games the last two seasons.

None of the three are good plays this week at Denver (No. 6 vs. the run, No. 4 vs. the pass and the top scoring defense in the league). If I had to pick one, though, I'd go with Morris.

-- McNothin: Darren McFadden has a torn meniscus and will miss 2 to 4 weeks, leaving the vaunted Michael Bush-Justin Fargas duo to do the heavy lifting for the Raiders on Sunday at the Giants.

Bush is expected to start, but I'd rather play a Patriot than one of these two at the Meadowlands. The Giants have been susceptible against the run (No. 27), but playing Bush or McFadden would assume the Raiders (the No. 26 rushing offense, the No. 32 passing offense and the owners of the second-fewest points in the league) know how to do anything offensively.

If you're like me and you made the brilliant move of drafting three running backs who have a Week 5 bye (Matt Forte, Ryan Grant and Reggie Bush), you might have to choose a Raider. If that's the case, Bush, who has 125 carries for 541 yards (4.3) in two NFL seasons, is the better option.

Fargas might rush for more yards (he had 1,009 in 2007), but he's no threat as a receiver and he's scored all of seven touchdowns in his career. In 679 touches since 2006, Fargas has six TDs.

-- WR showdown: Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, both first-round fantasy picks before the season, go head-to-head Sunday in a battle of players who haven't lived up to expectations.

Fitzgerald hasn't had more than 76 yards receiving in any of the Cardinals' first three games, and he has 181 yards for the year. Johnson, meanwhile, has one huge game to his credit (10 receptions for 149 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2) and three mediocre showings (a combined 10 catches for 187 yards and no scores in Weeks 1, 3 and 4).

Both the Texans (No. 10) and Cardinals (tied for 11th) have been effective defending the pass, but here's a hunch: You'll be feeling a lot better about your top receiver after Sunday.

Let's set Sunday's combined over-under for Fitzgerald and Johnson at 16 catches, 220 yards and two TDs.

-- Split feelings: In 2008, we had the DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart backfield -- a shared workload that actually worked from a fantasy perspective. This year, we present ... the 1-3 Miami Dolphins.

You already know about Ronnie Brown, a No. 2 fantasy back who has rushed for 369 yards, averaged 5.1 yards per carry, caught six passes for 50 yards and scored four TDs. But are you aware that Ricky Williams has only one fewer TD than Brown (three), two more receptions, 12 more receiving yards and 248 yards on the ground, with an average of 5.0 yards per attempt? Williams is an ideal flex play for weeks in which you were dumb enough to draft three backs with the same bye week (no names, please).

-- Closing number:
Our stat of the week goes to the quarterback formerly known as Neckbeard.

In four games since being traded to Denver in the largely unpopular Jay Cutler deal, Kyle Orton is 4-0 and is on pace to throw for 3,624 and 20 touchdowns, with a 97.7 rating and zero turnovers. If only his next four games weren't against the Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and Steelers.

-- On deck:
Saturday, we'll look at the must-starts, must-sits and other tidbits at the quarter-point of the season in our weekly column, which will be published on our Sports site and include the weekly audiocast. Saturday, I will also have the "big blog," with the expanded playlist and more start-and-sit advice. That will be posted here and on the N-H's Sports site.

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