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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Fantasy football: Shonn Greene's declining value and more running back analysis

I assumed Shonn Greene -- with or without LaDainian Tomlinson in green and white -- would be a top-12 running back this season.

You might have, too.

After Monday night, when Greene had five carries for 18 yards and fumbled twice on six touches, we're left to wonder how much of an impact Tomlinson's signing might have on Greene, who caught our attention by rushing for 304 yards and averaging 5.6 yards per carry in the Jets' three playoff games last season.

Tomlinson, in the first game of his post-Chargers career, had 78 yards on 13 touches, looking surprisingly spry against the Ravens' stingy defense.

This week, the Jets will play host to the Patriots, who ranked 13th against the run and allowed only six rushing TDs last season.

You never want to overreact because of one game, but I wouldn't play Greene or L.T. against the Pats.

Around the league

Let's take a quick look at some of the more muddled backfields from a fantasy perspective:

-- Buffalo: C.J. Spiller was a preseason darling, and he might be a future stud, but right now, this looks like a mess. Spiller had 11 touches for 12 yards last week, and Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch will get work. Together, the three combined for 46 total yards on 22 touches. I'd sit Spiller against Green Bay. The other two shouldn't be starting options unless an injury or poor play knocks someone out of the equation.

-- Carolina: DeAngelo Williams had 16 carries to Jonathan Stewart's five in Week 1. I wouldn't read too much into that yet. Stewart should be a flex option Sunday vs. the Buccaneers.

-- Chicago: Is Matt Forte back? We can only hope. Almost as encouraging as the second-year running back's receiving stats last week was the fact he received 24 touches to Chester Taylor's 12.

-- Cleveland: For now, it's a tandem. But I'd expect Eric Mangini to wise up and give up Jerome Harrison, not Peyton Hillis, the lion's share of the load.

-- Dallas: More sharing, more frustration. Marion Barber and Felix Jones each had 10 touches last week, and Tashard Choice seven. Long term, Jones should be the best play, but Barber is the most enticing starting option Sunday at home against the Bears.

-- Denver: It's Knowshon Moreno's show for now, but you have to wonder if the Broncos' trade for Laurence Maroney will mean another dreaded tandem in a few weeks.

-- Indianapolis: Good news, Joseph Addai owners. Your back received 10 carries, and Donald Brown's only touch was a reception.

-- Miami: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are sharing, as expected, but both are useful, especially Brown, at least until he gets hurt.

-- New Orleans: With Mike Bell in Philadelphia, Pierre Thomas (71 rushing yards, one TD, three receptions for 15 yards in Week 1) is an every-week starter. Reggie Bush is a flex play, at best, in deep PPR leagues.

-- New England: Fred Taylor, at age 34 (94 in running back years), had 71 yards on 14 carries last week. With Maroney gone, he seems to be the best option, but he should be a flex play only in 12-team or deeper leagues most weeks. I wouldn't play him Sunday at the Jets.

-- New York Giants: There seems to be a changing of the guard, from Brandon Jacobs (12 carries for 44 yards last week) to the electric Ahmad Bradshaw (76 yards rushing, one TD, two catches for 17 yards in Week 1). Bradshaw is a decent play Sunday night at Indy. Jacobs is not.

-- Oakland: Darren McFadden had a huge game (150 total yards, six receptions, one TD), but most of the points he accumulated were in garbage time against the Pats. Also keep in mind that McFadden posted those numbers with Michael Bush out. The latter is expected to return this week. McFadden is still a decent option this week against the Rams, who ranked 27th against the run and gave up 24 rushing TDs in 2009.

-- Seattle: Another mess. Justin Forsett was productive (6 yards per touch), but received only seven carries -- to eight by Julius Jones and six by Leon Washington. Sit 'em all.

-- Tampa Bay: It's Cadillac Williams' show, until he joins Ronnie Brown on injured reserve.

Quick slants

-- It's much too soon to trust Derek Anderson (297 yards, one TD last week), but he has the weapons. I'm tempted, but have seen too many bad Browns games to make the move.

-- Anquan Boldin has relegated Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to bench spots. Boldin had seven catches for 110 yards last week, compared to Mason's two for 21 and Houshmandzadeh's one for 27. I still believe in Mason, but wouldn't play him until the schedule softens.

-- I believe in Legedu Naanee. And you should, too.

-- I don't believe in any Jets receiver (or tight end Dustin Keller) until Santonio Holmes returns from his four-game suspension, and even then it will be difficult to play the former Buckeye with Mark Sanchez throwing to him (or trying futilely to do so). Not counting the playoffs, Sanchez hasn't thrown for 250 yards or two touchdowns since he did both in Week 8 of 2009.

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Thursday, October 8, 2009

Fantasy football: Braylon Edwards trade and no-huddle offense for Week 5

If you're a Browns fan -- or the biggest LeBron James supporter this side of The Four Horsemen -- you might have been thrilled with the Braylon Edwards trade.

If you're a disgruntled fantasy owner who wasted a fourth-round pick on the butterfingered one, there's hope.

We might never again see the Edwards of 2007. The Jets better hope they don't see the Edwards of '08. I'd expect something in the middle -- think new teammate Jerricho Cotchery, only with slightly fewer receptions and more touchdowns.

If Edwards had stayed in Cleveland, he was destined for your bench after a four-game stretch in which he was good once (six catches for 92 yards in Week 2) and bad on three occasions (a combined four catches for 47 yards in Weeks 1, 3 and 4). Now, I'd be tempted to start him right away with the Jets.

Edwards is expected to open Monday night's game at Miami with the first team, and the Dolphins have struggled against the pass (No. 26 in the league). Following that matchup, the Jets play at the Raiders (No. 13 vs. the pass), against the Dolphins at home and, after a bye week, at home vs. the Jaguars (tied for last against the pass).

With apologies to Mohamed Massaquoi and Jerome Harrison, the Jets have a few more weapons to take the heat off Edwards.

If you have four solid receivers, you can afford to wait and see how much of an impact Edwards makes in the Big Apple. If your fourth receiver is on par with the likes of Massaquoi or Pierre Garcon, I'd take the chance that the former Brown will have a big game on ESPN.

Somewhere Eric Mangini is plotting his next $1,701 fine.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- Taylor-made: Just when it seemed as if we had the Patriots' running back situation figured out, news breaks that Fred Taylor will have ankle surgery and be out for an extended period. That leaves those of us looking for bye-week help contemplating the value of Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris.

Of the three, I'd expect Maroney to get the most carries, Faulk to get the most catches and Morris to be the most productive.

The latter rushed for 727 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, last season. Faulk is worth considering only in point-per-receptions leagues, a format in which he was quite effective as a bye-week flex play last season, when he rushed for 507 yards, caught 58 passes for 486 yards and scored six TDs.

Maroney, meanwhile, is a mystery wrapped inside an enigma covered by a Bill Belichick news conference. The 2006 first-round pick has 55 carries for 171 yards (3.1) and no touchdowns in seven games the last two seasons.

None of the three are good plays this week at Denver (No. 6 vs. the run, No. 4 vs. the pass and the top scoring defense in the league). If I had to pick one, though, I'd go with Morris.

-- McNothin: Darren McFadden has a torn meniscus and will miss 2 to 4 weeks, leaving the vaunted Michael Bush-Justin Fargas duo to do the heavy lifting for the Raiders on Sunday at the Giants.

Bush is expected to start, but I'd rather play a Patriot than one of these two at the Meadowlands. The Giants have been susceptible against the run (No. 27), but playing Bush or McFadden would assume the Raiders (the No. 26 rushing offense, the No. 32 passing offense and the owners of the second-fewest points in the league) know how to do anything offensively.

If you're like me and you made the brilliant move of drafting three running backs who have a Week 5 bye (Matt Forte, Ryan Grant and Reggie Bush), you might have to choose a Raider. If that's the case, Bush, who has 125 carries for 541 yards (4.3) in two NFL seasons, is the better option.

Fargas might rush for more yards (he had 1,009 in 2007), but he's no threat as a receiver and he's scored all of seven touchdowns in his career. In 679 touches since 2006, Fargas has six TDs.

-- WR showdown: Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, both first-round fantasy picks before the season, go head-to-head Sunday in a battle of players who haven't lived up to expectations.

Fitzgerald hasn't had more than 76 yards receiving in any of the Cardinals' first three games, and he has 181 yards for the year. Johnson, meanwhile, has one huge game to his credit (10 receptions for 149 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2) and three mediocre showings (a combined 10 catches for 187 yards and no scores in Weeks 1, 3 and 4).

Both the Texans (No. 10) and Cardinals (tied for 11th) have been effective defending the pass, but here's a hunch: You'll be feeling a lot better about your top receiver after Sunday.

Let's set Sunday's combined over-under for Fitzgerald and Johnson at 16 catches, 220 yards and two TDs.

-- Split feelings: In 2008, we had the DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart backfield -- a shared workload that actually worked from a fantasy perspective. This year, we present ... the 1-3 Miami Dolphins.

You already know about Ronnie Brown, a No. 2 fantasy back who has rushed for 369 yards, averaged 5.1 yards per carry, caught six passes for 50 yards and scored four TDs. But are you aware that Ricky Williams has only one fewer TD than Brown (three), two more receptions, 12 more receiving yards and 248 yards on the ground, with an average of 5.0 yards per attempt? Williams is an ideal flex play for weeks in which you were dumb enough to draft three backs with the same bye week (no names, please).

-- Closing number:
Our stat of the week goes to the quarterback formerly known as Neckbeard.

In four games since being traded to Denver in the largely unpopular Jay Cutler deal, Kyle Orton is 4-0 and is on pace to throw for 3,624 and 20 touchdowns, with a 97.7 rating and zero turnovers. If only his next four games weren't against the Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and Steelers.

-- On deck:
Saturday, we'll look at the must-starts, must-sits and other tidbits at the quarter-point of the season in our weekly column, which will be published on our Sports site and include the weekly audiocast. Saturday, I will also have the "big blog," with the expanded playlist and more start-and-sit advice. That will be posted here and on the N-H's Sports site.

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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 4

Coach Dick Jauron was kind enough to say the Bills would bring running back Marshawn Lynch "along slowly" in the latter's return from a three-game suspension. Translation: Fred Jackson owners, enjoy your last week of freedom.

I would expect Jackson -- who has thrived in Lynch's absence, totaling 425 yards in three games -- to get the majority of the carries Sunday at Miami. In Week 5, it should be more of a 50-50 split, a prospect fantasy owners detest more than playing against Santana Moss during his one huge game a year.

Jackson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and is a No. 2 back in point-per-reception leagues, as his 15 catches trail only Arizona's Tim Hightower among all running backs. I would play him even against the Dolphins, who rank third defending the run, allowing only 66 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

By Week 5, when the Bills face the always accommodating Browns defense, Lynch -- a 2007 first-round pick who rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons -- should be much more involved.

At that point, you know the drill. Play the matchup game, as you do with almost every back who shares carries, and hope you see "Cleveland," "St. Louis," "Tampa Bay" or Houston" in the schedule column next to your player.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- More sharing: In the last two games, Colts running back Joseph Addai has 23 touches (19 rushes and four receptions). Rookie Donald Brown has 20 (18 rushes and two receptions). Addai has generated 110 total yards and one touchdown, and Brown has 162 yards and a TD.

I'm not an offensive coordinator, and I don't play one on the Web, but that doesn't seem to bode well for Addai owners. At best, it's another split. At worst, Brown will take Addai's job by midseason, whether it's by injury or performance.

Addai should stay in your lineup this week against the Seahawks, who rank 25th against the run, but I wouldn't say the same for a Week 5 matchup at Tennessee.

-- Finally, less sharing:
For those keeping score on their laptops, there has been some separation between DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, one of the few backfield timeshare's that actually has worked from a fantasy standpoint.

Williams has 50 touches in three games -- 20 more than Stewart. He has received 64 percent of the rushing attempts between the two (41 of 64), compared to 59.7 percent last season. Stewart, who was limited throughout the preseason by an Achilles injury, has only 12 carries in Carolina's last two games.

Williams owners can feel better about their first-round pick getting more of the workload. The problem is he's still getting less work than he did in 2008 because Jake Delhomme has been awful, and the Panthers have been forced to throw more in their 0-3 start.

Williams should break out soon, however. Following a bye this week, the Panthers play at home against Washington (No. 21 vs. the run), at Tampa Bay (No. 31) and at home against Buffalo (No. 18).

-- Less sharing, Part II: LenDale White had one of the best lines of training camp when he said he lost weight after cutting Patron -- a high-priced tequila, for those of you who don't watch "The Hills" -- out of his diet. Maybe he did all that hard work for nothing.

The Titans, smartly, have given Chris Johnson 53 carries to White's 21, and the slimmer, faster second-year back has generated 457 yards on 64 touches, to White's 85 yards on 22 touches.

White was useful in fantasy last season, strictly because of his 15 touchdowns. Now he's no better than a reserve, one who is most valuable as an insurance policy for owners who have Johnson.

-- And the winner is: The 2008 Pierre Thomas made a belated appearance in Week 3, rushing for 126 yards and two touchdowns in the second half for the Saints. With Mike Bell missing practice again this week because of a knee injury and Thomas saying his knee is close to 100 percent, all signs point to Thomas being a valuable asset the rest of the way.

Reggie Bush, who is averaging only 10 carries per game, is a flex play at best in PPR leagues. The player we once thought could be the next Marshall Faulk is now more of a slot receiver, and Thomas, an undrafted third-year back from Illinois, is a must-start, even Sunday against the Jets and their ninth-ranked run defense.

-- And the winner is, Take II: Fred Taylor, he of the 2,466 career carries and the age at which most running backs are looking for media work (33), may have finally given Bill Belichick reason to stop the back-by-committee insanity.

Taylor, who had 17 rushing attempts in his first two games with the Patriots, had 21 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown last week. He's the only Patriots back worth considering week to week.

Just not this one. New England will host Baltimore on Sunday. The league's top-ranked run defense is allowing 51 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry. The opposition has yet to score on the ground.

-- On deck: We'll have a live fantasy football chat Thursday night at 7. To access the discussion, go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the chat. Saturday, I'll have a column on the fantasy prospects of Glen Coffee, Tashard Choice and other young backs who will play a prominent role in the next few weeks, along with an audiocast and the "big blog," which includes the expanded playlist and start-and-sit advice. All can be found in the Sports section of the N-H's Web site, and the blog will also be posted in this space.

Good luck and remember to thank the owner ahead of you in the waiver-wire pecking order who neglected to pick up Coffee (Glen, not Starbucks).

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