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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Admitting I was wrong about Reggie Bush

Reggie Bush was out to get me. I can only imagine how much worse it would have been if my name was Kris Humphries.

I wrote this seemingly innocent blog on Sept. 16, never thinking the former Mr. Kim Kardashian would come back to strike me a second time.

Sunday, it happened.

Bush rushed for 203 yards on 25 carries in the Dolphins' win over the Bills, which is all the more remarkable when you consider he had never rushed for more than 581 yards in a season prior to 2011.

He also scored a game-clinching touchdown Sunday with a 76-yard run. At that point, I knew I was as done as Humphries' reality television career.

If you read the blog above, you'll see Bush's first big game this season occurred following a draft in which I criticized my brother's selection of Bush with the first pick of the fifth-round in a 12-team league.

Sunday, in the final four of that league's postseason, I faced my brother.

You know the rest.

Bush has now rushed for 973 yards, caught 41 passes for 270 yards and scored seven times. He has three consecutive 100-yard games on the ground -- a sentence I never thought I would write in this space.

In Weeks 13 through 15 -- the regular-season finale, the first round of the playoffs and the semifinals, respectively, in most fantasy leagues -- Bush has 61 carries for 406 yards and two TDs. He has six receptions, and he's averaged 146.3 total yards per contest in that span.

He has produced those numbers after a season in which the Saints gave up on him. Bush was traded to the Dolphins after playing in eight games, rushing for 150 yards, catching 34 passes and reaching the end zone once last season.

It still seems like a crazy draft pick -- the 49th overall selection on a player who was set to share carries with a highly routed rookie (Daniel Thomas).

My brother got the last laugh. And a berth in the championship game.

I received the Kris Humphries treatment.

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Friday, September 16, 2011

Fantasy football: Is Reggie Bush a starter?

When my brother drafted Reggie Bush with the first pick of the fifth round of a 12-team league, I immediately thought it was the worst pick of the night, which was still young.

In Week 1 against the Patriots, Bush had 11 carries for 38 yards and caught nine passes for 56 yards and one TD in his Miami debut.

As luck would have it, I played my brother in Week 1. He didn't need to tell me I was wrong to make fun of his Bush selection because he beat me so badly he would have won without Bush's 24.4 points.

Am I incorrect about Bush? Time will tell.

Until then, a few points on why I still don't believe in the former Mr. Kim Kardashian:

-- In his first five NFL seasons, Bush never rushed for more than 581 yards.

-- He played in only 44 of 64 games from 2007 to '10.

-- In the three years in which he had 100-plus carries, he averaged 3.6, 3.7 and 3.8 yards per carry.

-- He has 30 touchdowns in 61 career games.

Yes, Bush is a very good receiver and can be an asset in point-per-reception formats (which is the scoring system the league in which I compete with my brother utilizes). In 2006, his rookie season, he had 88 catches for 742 yards with the Saints, and he had 73 receptions in 12 games in '07.

Bush, however, hasn't surpassed 52 catches in a season since, and he's averaged only 26 receiving yards per game since 2008.

His productive Monday night was helped in part by the absence of rookie Daniel Thomas, who was inactive because of a hamstring injury. Thomas is expected to return this week, and the pair should soon be sharing carries.

Miami drafted Thomas in the second round last April. And Bush can't be considered an ideal first- and second-down back.

I would expect Thomas to be "the guy" by midseason. And I expect my brother to admit I was right.

(OK, I'll settle for one out of two.)

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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's games

A quick note before we get to the goodies: Click here for today's analysis of Vincent Jackson's fantasy value, along with items on Keiland Williams and Blair White, and a few quick hitters for today's games.

PATRIOTS AT LIONS

Start 'em


Patriots: QB Tom Brady, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Wes Welker, WR Deion Branch

Lions: QB Shaun Hill, WR Calvin Johnson, WR Nate Burleson, TE Brandon Pettigrew

Sit 'em

Patriots:
RB Danny Woodhead, TE Aaron Hernandez, TE Rob Gronkowski, defense and special teams, K Shayne Graham

Lions: RB Jahvid Best, RB Maurice Morris, TE Tony Scheffler, defense and special teams, K Dave Rayner

SAINTS AT COWBOYS

Start 'em

Saints:
QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, WR Lance Moore, defense and special teams, K Garrett Hartley

Cowboys: WR Miles Austin, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten

Sit 'em

Saints:
RB Chris Ivory, RB Reggie Bush, WR Robert Meachem, TE Jeremy Shockey

Cowboys: QB Jon Kitna, RB Felix Jones, RB Marion Barber, RB Tashard Choice, WR Roy Williams, defense and special teams, K David Buehler

BENGALS AT JETS

Start 'em

Bengals:
RB Cedric Benson, WR Terrell Owens, WR Chad Ochocinco

Jets: QB Mark Sanchez, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Braylon Edwards, WR Santonio Holmes, defense and special teams, K Nick Folk

Sit 'em

Bengals:
QB Carson Palmer, WR Jordan Shipley, TE Jermaine Gresham, defense and special teams, K Mike Nugent

Jets: RB Shonn Greene, TE Dustin Keller

QUICK SLANTS

-- As I wrote in the column that was linked to at the top, the Lions' Best isn't a good play after a game in which he had all of five touches. Teammate Maurice Morris had 14 touches in Week 11, and Best is bothered by a toe injury.

-- The Patriots' Woodhead is an OK play if you really need help at running back, but he shouldn't be considered a No. 2 back in 10- and 12-team leagues. The Lions rank 26th against the run and have allowed 11 TDs on the ground.

-- Reggie Bush is expected to play for the first time since Week 2, but at this point, he is at best a low-end flex play in point-per-reception leagues. Pierre Thomas has been ruled out for the Saints and Chris Ivory is coming off his best game since Week 6, but he and Bush are risky plays.

-- The Cowboys' Felix Jones could sit because of a hip injury. If that's the case, Tashard Choice is an intriguing option in PPR leagues because of his receiving ability. And it doesn't hurt that Marion Barber has been so bad (294 yards, 3.2 per carry) that the Cowboys might be anxious to give someone else a chance.

-- The Jets' Sanchez is an intriguing option after throwing for a combined 614 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games.

-- The rankings for the defenses: Patriots, No. 17 vs. run, No. 31 vs. pass, No. 30 overall, No. 23 in points allowed per game (24.2); Lions, No. 26 vs. run, tied for 13th vs. pass, No. 19 overall, No. 22 in points (23.7); Saints, tied for 13th vs. run, No. 2 vs. pass, No. 4 overall, No. 4 in points (17); Cowboys, No. 22 vs. run, tied for 21st vs. pass, No. 22 overall, No. 28 in points (27.1); Bengals, No. 23 vs. run, No. 18 vs. pass, No. 18 overall, No. 26 in points (26.2); Jets, No. 5 vs. run, No. 16 vs. pass, No. 7 overall, No. 5 in points (17.7).

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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 4

Coach Dick Jauron was kind enough to say the Bills would bring running back Marshawn Lynch "along slowly" in the latter's return from a three-game suspension. Translation: Fred Jackson owners, enjoy your last week of freedom.

I would expect Jackson -- who has thrived in Lynch's absence, totaling 425 yards in three games -- to get the majority of the carries Sunday at Miami. In Week 5, it should be more of a 50-50 split, a prospect fantasy owners detest more than playing against Santana Moss during his one huge game a year.

Jackson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and is a No. 2 back in point-per-reception leagues, as his 15 catches trail only Arizona's Tim Hightower among all running backs. I would play him even against the Dolphins, who rank third defending the run, allowing only 66 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

By Week 5, when the Bills face the always accommodating Browns defense, Lynch -- a 2007 first-round pick who rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons -- should be much more involved.

At that point, you know the drill. Play the matchup game, as you do with almost every back who shares carries, and hope you see "Cleveland," "St. Louis," "Tampa Bay" or Houston" in the schedule column next to your player.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- More sharing: In the last two games, Colts running back Joseph Addai has 23 touches (19 rushes and four receptions). Rookie Donald Brown has 20 (18 rushes and two receptions). Addai has generated 110 total yards and one touchdown, and Brown has 162 yards and a TD.

I'm not an offensive coordinator, and I don't play one on the Web, but that doesn't seem to bode well for Addai owners. At best, it's another split. At worst, Brown will take Addai's job by midseason, whether it's by injury or performance.

Addai should stay in your lineup this week against the Seahawks, who rank 25th against the run, but I wouldn't say the same for a Week 5 matchup at Tennessee.

-- Finally, less sharing:
For those keeping score on their laptops, there has been some separation between DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, one of the few backfield timeshare's that actually has worked from a fantasy standpoint.

Williams has 50 touches in three games -- 20 more than Stewart. He has received 64 percent of the rushing attempts between the two (41 of 64), compared to 59.7 percent last season. Stewart, who was limited throughout the preseason by an Achilles injury, has only 12 carries in Carolina's last two games.

Williams owners can feel better about their first-round pick getting more of the workload. The problem is he's still getting less work than he did in 2008 because Jake Delhomme has been awful, and the Panthers have been forced to throw more in their 0-3 start.

Williams should break out soon, however. Following a bye this week, the Panthers play at home against Washington (No. 21 vs. the run), at Tampa Bay (No. 31) and at home against Buffalo (No. 18).

-- Less sharing, Part II: LenDale White had one of the best lines of training camp when he said he lost weight after cutting Patron -- a high-priced tequila, for those of you who don't watch "The Hills" -- out of his diet. Maybe he did all that hard work for nothing.

The Titans, smartly, have given Chris Johnson 53 carries to White's 21, and the slimmer, faster second-year back has generated 457 yards on 64 touches, to White's 85 yards on 22 touches.

White was useful in fantasy last season, strictly because of his 15 touchdowns. Now he's no better than a reserve, one who is most valuable as an insurance policy for owners who have Johnson.

-- And the winner is: The 2008 Pierre Thomas made a belated appearance in Week 3, rushing for 126 yards and two touchdowns in the second half for the Saints. With Mike Bell missing practice again this week because of a knee injury and Thomas saying his knee is close to 100 percent, all signs point to Thomas being a valuable asset the rest of the way.

Reggie Bush, who is averaging only 10 carries per game, is a flex play at best in PPR leagues. The player we once thought could be the next Marshall Faulk is now more of a slot receiver, and Thomas, an undrafted third-year back from Illinois, is a must-start, even Sunday against the Jets and their ninth-ranked run defense.

-- And the winner is, Take II: Fred Taylor, he of the 2,466 career carries and the age at which most running backs are looking for media work (33), may have finally given Bill Belichick reason to stop the back-by-committee insanity.

Taylor, who had 17 rushing attempts in his first two games with the Patriots, had 21 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown last week. He's the only Patriots back worth considering week to week.

Just not this one. New England will host Baltimore on Sunday. The league's top-ranked run defense is allowing 51 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry. The opposition has yet to score on the ground.

-- On deck: We'll have a live fantasy football chat Thursday night at 7. To access the discussion, go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the chat. Saturday, I'll have a column on the fantasy prospects of Glen Coffee, Tashard Choice and other young backs who will play a prominent role in the next few weeks, along with an audiocast and the "big blog," which includes the expanded playlist and start-and-sit advice. All can be found in the Sports section of the N-H's Web site, and the blog will also be posted in this space.

Good luck and remember to thank the owner ahead of you in the waiver-wire pecking order who neglected to pick up Coffee (Glen, not Starbucks).

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Saturday, September 12, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit, expanded playlist and more for Week 1

The predictions, prognostications and prolonged holdouts are all behind us (well, expect for you, Michael Crabtree), and it's finally time for a full slate of Week 1 games.

Before we get to the start-and-sit advice and the expanded playlist, here are a couple quick plugs.

-- Click here for a column I wrote today about Brandon Marshall, which includes injury advice and thoughts from Thursday's season opener. The link also has the audiocast Sports Editor Mark Podolski and I record each week.

-- We'll have a live fantasy football chat on the N-H's Web site this Thursday at 4 p.m. Go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the chat at the top.

-- If you have a question, e-mail KKleps@News-Herald.com or post a comment at the bottom of this blog and we'll answer it in the audiocast or the Saturday blog.

On to the lists ...

Five to start

Our first look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Reggie Bush, RB, Saints, vs. Lions: Pierre Thomas is out because of a knee injury, which should mean more touches for Bush against a Lions defense that was the league's worst against the run last season, allowing an average of 172.1 yards per game, along with a league-high 31 rushing TDs. Detroit also ranked 27th against the pass, which should mean six or more catches for Bush. Another player to watch in this game: Mike Bell, who should share carries with Bush with Thomas sitting.

-- Donnie Avery, WR, Rams, at Seahawks: He's recovered from a foot injury that held him out of the majority of the preseason, and he gets to open the real season against 2008's worst pass defense. The Seahawks allowed 259 passing yards per game last season. Opposing quarterbacks had 25 TD throws and just nine interceptions.

-- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Chiefs: He should be more productive in Year 2, and there's no telling how bad the Chiefs' defense will be in the first year of the Todd Haley/Scott Pioli regime. Kansas City's pass defense was the league's fifth-worst last season.

-- Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks, vs. Rams: He reportedly is healthy after a back injury wrecked his 2008 season, and he should have a big day against the Rams, who were 19th vs. the pass in 2008.

-- Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals, vs. Broncos: The once-troubled Bear wasn't featured at all on "Hard Knocks," but he should play a prominent role against a Broncos run defense that ranked 27th in 2008, yielding 146.1 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per attempt and 26 TDs on the ground (the second-most in the NFL).

-- More favorable matchups: Seahawks running back Julius Jones vs. the Rams, who ranked 29th against the run in 2008; Ravens running back Ray Rice against the Chiefs (No. 30); Cardinals running back Beanie Wells against the 49ers; 49ers wide receiver Isaac Bruce at the Cardinals (No. 22 vs. the pass); Seahawks receiver Nate Burleson against the Rams (No. 19); and if Anquan Boldin doesn't play because of a hamstring injury, Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston vs. the 49ers (No. 20).

Three to sit


If you have a quality backup with a favorable matchup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders, vs. Chargers: This is more of an indictment of the Raiders' weapons-less offense that it is an endorsement of the Chargers' defense, which ranked 11th vs. the run last season.

-- Santana Moss, WR, Redskins, at Giants:
The frustrating thing for Moss owners is his inconsistency, and the Giants were very good defending the pass last season (No. 8, 196 yards per game, 17 TDs, 17 interceptions).

-- Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs, at Ravens: He probably can't be called an every-week starter at this stage of his career, and he should definitely be on your bench against the Ravens, who ranked third vs. the run in 2008 and allowed the fewest rushing TDs (4) in the NFL.

-- More matchups I don't like:
Roy Williams, WR, Dallas, at Buccaneers (No. 4 vs. pass last season); Lee Evans, WR, Bills, at Patriots (No. 11); any New York Giants receiver vs. the Redskins (I'd prefer to wait to see if Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith are Eli Manning's preferred targets); Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos, at Bengals (will he get the majority of the carries or share with Correll Buckhalter?); Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns, vs. Vikings (the league's top run defense a year ago).

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Drew Brees, Saints, vs. Lions (No. 27 vs. the pass in 2008)
2. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Bills (13)
3. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. 49ers (20)
4. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. Jaguars (24)
5. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Raiders (10)
6. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, vs. Bears (30)
7. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Jets (29)
8. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, at Panthers (16)
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons, vs. Dolphins (25)
10. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Broncos (26)
11. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, vs. Rams (19)
12. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Chiefs (28)
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys, at Buccaneers (4)
14. Jay Cutler, Bears, at Packers (12)
15. Shaun Hill, 49ers, at Cardinals (22)
16. Chad Pennington, Dolphins, at Falcons (21)
17. Eli Manning, Giants, vs. Redskins (7)
18. Brett Favre, Vikings, at Browns (14)
19. David Garrard, Jaguars, at Colts (6)
20. Trent Edwards, Bills, at Patriots (11)

RUNNING BACKS
1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, at Browns (No. 28 vs. the run in 2008)
2. Matt Forte, Bears, at Packers (26)
3. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Raiders (31)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at Colts (24)
5. Steven Jackson, Rams, at Seahawks (18)
6. Brian Westbrook, Eagles, at Panthers (20)
7. Michael Turner, Falcons, vs. Dolphins (10)
8. Thomas Jones, Jets, at Texans (23)
9. Steve Slaton, Texans, vs. Jets (7)
10. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Cardinals (16)
11. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, at Falcons (25)
12. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, vs. Redskins (8)
13. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, vs. Eagles (4)
14. Marion Barber, Cowboys, at Buccaneers (19)
15. Ryan Grant, Packers, vs. Bears (5)
16. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Broncos (27)
17. Kevin Smith, Lions, at Saints (17)
18. Reggie Bush, Saints, vs. Lions (32)
19. Ray Rice, Ravens, vs. Chiefs (30)
20. Clinton Portis, Redskins, at Giants (9)
21. Julius Jones, Seahawks, vs. Rams (29)
22. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Jaguars (13)
23. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers, vs. Cowboys (12)
24. Beanie Wells, Cardinals, vs. 49ers (13)

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Dolphins (No. 25 vs. the pass in 2008)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. 49ers (20)
3. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Bills (13)
4. Roddy White, Falcons, vs. Dolphins (25)
5. Marques Colston, Saints, vs. Lions (27)
6. Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. Jaguars (24)
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. Rams (19)
8. Greg Jennings, Packers, vs. Bears (30)
9. Calvin Johnson, Lions, at Saints (23)
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Raiders (10)
11. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, vs. Broncos (26)
12. Steve Smith, Panthers, vs. Eagles (3)
13. Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Bills (13)
14. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, at Panthers (16)
15. Lance Moore, Saints, vs. Lions (27)
16. Eddie Royal, Broncos, at Bengals (15)
17. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts, vs. Jaguars (24)
18. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Chiefs (28)
19. Terrell Owens, Bills, at Patriots (11)
20. Donnie Avery, Rams, at Seahawks (32)
21. Kevin Walter, Texans, vs. Jets (29)
22. Braylon Edwards, Browns, vs. Vikings (18)
23. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Bengals (15)
24. x-Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. 49ers (20)
25. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, at Browns (14)
26. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, at Ravens (2)
27. Donald Driver, Packers, vs. Bears (30)
28. Laveranues Coles, Bengals, vs. Broncos (26)
29. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, at Texans (17)
30. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers, vs. Cowboys (5)
31. Torry Holt, Jaguars, at Colts (6)
32. Roy Williams, Cowboys, at Buccaneers (4)
33. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins, at Falcons (21)
34. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, vs. Rams (19)
35. Isaac Bruce, 49ers, at Cardinals (22)
36. Devin Hester, Bears, at Packers (12)

x-Make sure Boldin (hamstring injury) plays. If not, teammate Steve Breaston would be a good start.

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