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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Fantasy football: DeMarco Murray, Tebow and more Week 7 reactions

According to ESPN.com's ownership percentages, DeMarco Murray is available in more than 64 percent of the fantasy leagues run by the Worldwide Leader.

That number seems way too high, but the stat I'm more curious about is the percentage of owners who left Murray on their bench in Week 7 against the Rams, owners of the league's worst run defense.

Maybe I'm one of the few knuckleheads who did -- in my defense, I started Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Darren McFadden (my top three draft picks). I watched in horror as McFadden was injured early, Johnson had another unproductive game and Murray ran for a Cowboys franchise-record 253 yards on 25 carries -- in a game he didn't even start.

Murray, Dallas' third-round pick in 2011, missed most of training camp because of a hamstring injury and was getting his chance only because of a high ankle sprain suffered by Felix Jones.

We should also keep in mind that the Rams have been AWFUL against the run (183.8 yards allowed per game and 5.5 yards allowed per carry).

Will Murray deserve to be a fantasy starter the rest of the way? We have no way of knowing.

What we do know is if the Cowboys decide to make him their featured back over Jones once the latter is healthy, it will be an easy decision. Take a look at Dallas' schedule in Weeks 8 through 13: at Philadelphia (No. 23 vs. the run), vs. Seattle (No. 10), vs. Buffalo (No. 30), at Washington (No. 17), vs. Miami (No. 20) and at Arizona (No. 13).

We already are certain Murray is much more valuable than Tashard Choice, who received only two carries as Dallas' starter Sunday. The guess here is he will be a better play than Jones the rest of the way, too.

The problem: If the Cowboys don't agree and go to the dreaded backfield-by-committee plan when Jones returns, Murray will be a No. 3 fantasy back at best.

Take your time getting healthy, Felix. Seriously, take a long time.

Tebow time

I understand why Tim Tebow annoys fans. I get that the experts question his accuracy, his mechanics and whatever else the film shows.

What I don't understand is any skepticism that he's a fantasy starter at quarterback -- assuming, of course, he continues to hold the Broncos' job over Kyle Orton.

As we outlined on Oct. 11, Tebow produces when he plays. Sunday at Miami, he was awful for 54 minutes and 37 seconds (4-for-14 for 40 yards, and the Broncos were 0-for-10 on third down), and great from that point forward.

Tebow finished with 161 yards passing, two touchdowns, eight carries for 65 yards and a two-point conversion. He led Denver to 15 points in the last 2:44 of regulation and an overtime win -- albeit over a winless team.

Again, he produces. He's a top-10 or top-12 fantasy quarterback.

The endless debates, ESPN roundtables and everything else does get to be too much. But that doesn't mean he should be on your bench.

A few more quick takes from Week 7:

-- Until Jahvid Best returns from a concussion (and there is some speculation he won't this season), the Lions appear to have decided on a timeshare between Maurice Morris (nine carries for 50 yards and two catches for 13 yards on Sunday) and Keiland Williams (nine carries for 44 yards). Hint: Stay away.

-- Jackie Battle appears to be the Chiefs' choice as their featured back, though Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones did receive a combined 19 carries on Sunday. Battle had 16 carries for 76 yards at Oakland, giving him 35 rushes for 195 yards in his last two contests. The presence of McCluster and Jones makes Battle more of a flex play, but he's still a decent option, depending on the matchup (and this week, it's a good one, since the Chargers rank 21st against the run).

-- Mike Shanahan, Fantasy Tormentor, returned to Tim Hightower as his featured back on Sunday, and the latter was productive until he suffered a torn ACL on Sunday. Next up, we can only assume (which is dangerous when Shanahan is involved), in Washington is Ryan Torain, who had 19 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown on Oct. 2 against the (you guessed it) Rams but has received all of 12 attempts since. Don't discount rookie Roy Helu as an option, though, since the 2011 fourth-round pick has averaged 4.9 yards on 27 carries this season.

On second thought, maybe we should all just avoid Washington running backs.

We'll be back Tuesday with waiver-wire picks for Week 8. Until then, enjoy Jon Gruden tonight.

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Thursday, October 20, 2011

Fantasy football: Jahvid Best/Maurice Morris analysis

It all started with a seemingly innocuous note in Mike Freeman's Ten-Point Stance on CBSSports.com.

Freeman's third item in his Wednesday column: "People close to Detroit runner Jahvid Best are expressing concern to him that he needs to strongly consider sitting out the year, I'm told. Best suffered his second concussion of the season this past week. He was forced to miss the final four games of his college career due to concussion-like symptoms."

The Lions wouldn't comment on the report, but have expressed belief that the running back will return soon. Coach Jim Schwartz said Best will be back as soon as he gets clearance from the doctors.

That, combined with Adam Schefter's ESPN report that backup Jerome Harrison's trade to Philadelphia for Ronnie Brown was voided because Eagles doctors discovered a tumor in Harrison's brain, have left Maurice Morris as the primary backfield option for an offense that is averaging 29.7 points per game.

Morris, a 10-year veteran, has nine carries for 20 yards and five receptions for 55 yards on the season. His career high is 628 yards rushing in a season, and he has scored 16 TDs in 135 career games.

With six teams on a bye again this week, many owners could be looking for help at running back. If you're one of them, consider Morris a flex play at best.

He's more valuable in point-per-reception leagues (he had a combined 51 catches in 2009 and '10), but he's still not a top-20 running back even in weeks in which only 26 teams are playing.

Morris did have five TDs in his last six games in 2010, when Best had tailed off considerably after a strong start to his rookie season. In that span, Morris rushed for 295 yards and caught 14 passes while averaging 13.8 touches per contest.

Sunday, the Lions will play host to the Falcons, who rank seventh in the league against the run (97.5 rushing yards per game). Atlanta is in the bottom nine of the league in rushing TDs allowed (six).

In Week 8, Detroit will face Denver, which is No. 23 against the run at 123.4 yards per game. A bye follows in Week 9.

We can only assume Best, at worst, will return by Week 10, but keep in mind that he has had three concussions in two NFL seasons and, as Freeman wrote, had concussion issues in college.

If you own Best, your only choice is to keep him on your bench until he returns. He obviously has little trade value. Morris, meanwhile, entered this week available in more than 99 percent of the ESPN.com leagues.

That total has changed (by how much, we're not sure, since Morris' ESPN ownership percentage was listed as 0.8 Thursday night), but he still can be had in most formats. The possibility he could be the featured back for an extended period on a team with a potent offense automatically gives him value.

Just make sure you place said value at a realistic (read: outside the top 25 at his position) level.

Murray is the man

Since we're on the subject of injured running backs, DeMarco Murray -- one of our waiver-wire picks this week -- should be considered a No. 2 fantasy running back in Week 7.

Felix Jones is out because of a high ankle sprain, and Murray should get more work than backfield mate Tashard Choice.

The reason we're so high on Murray, a rookie who has yet to rush for more than 32 yards in a game this season: Dallas will play host to St. Louis, which owns the league's worst run defense at 163 yards per game and is yielding 4.9 yards per carry.

Choice, who is an effective receiver, is a decent flex play against the Rams.

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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's games

A quick note before we get to the goodies: Click here for today's analysis of Vincent Jackson's fantasy value, along with items on Keiland Williams and Blair White, and a few quick hitters for today's games.

PATRIOTS AT LIONS

Start 'em


Patriots: QB Tom Brady, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Wes Welker, WR Deion Branch

Lions: QB Shaun Hill, WR Calvin Johnson, WR Nate Burleson, TE Brandon Pettigrew

Sit 'em

Patriots:
RB Danny Woodhead, TE Aaron Hernandez, TE Rob Gronkowski, defense and special teams, K Shayne Graham

Lions: RB Jahvid Best, RB Maurice Morris, TE Tony Scheffler, defense and special teams, K Dave Rayner

SAINTS AT COWBOYS

Start 'em

Saints:
QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, WR Lance Moore, defense and special teams, K Garrett Hartley

Cowboys: WR Miles Austin, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten

Sit 'em

Saints:
RB Chris Ivory, RB Reggie Bush, WR Robert Meachem, TE Jeremy Shockey

Cowboys: QB Jon Kitna, RB Felix Jones, RB Marion Barber, RB Tashard Choice, WR Roy Williams, defense and special teams, K David Buehler

BENGALS AT JETS

Start 'em

Bengals:
RB Cedric Benson, WR Terrell Owens, WR Chad Ochocinco

Jets: QB Mark Sanchez, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Braylon Edwards, WR Santonio Holmes, defense and special teams, K Nick Folk

Sit 'em

Bengals:
QB Carson Palmer, WR Jordan Shipley, TE Jermaine Gresham, defense and special teams, K Mike Nugent

Jets: RB Shonn Greene, TE Dustin Keller

QUICK SLANTS

-- As I wrote in the column that was linked to at the top, the Lions' Best isn't a good play after a game in which he had all of five touches. Teammate Maurice Morris had 14 touches in Week 11, and Best is bothered by a toe injury.

-- The Patriots' Woodhead is an OK play if you really need help at running back, but he shouldn't be considered a No. 2 back in 10- and 12-team leagues. The Lions rank 26th against the run and have allowed 11 TDs on the ground.

-- Reggie Bush is expected to play for the first time since Week 2, but at this point, he is at best a low-end flex play in point-per-reception leagues. Pierre Thomas has been ruled out for the Saints and Chris Ivory is coming off his best game since Week 6, but he and Bush are risky plays.

-- The Cowboys' Felix Jones could sit because of a hip injury. If that's the case, Tashard Choice is an intriguing option in PPR leagues because of his receiving ability. And it doesn't hurt that Marion Barber has been so bad (294 yards, 3.2 per carry) that the Cowboys might be anxious to give someone else a chance.

-- The Jets' Sanchez is an intriguing option after throwing for a combined 614 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games.

-- The rankings for the defenses: Patriots, No. 17 vs. run, No. 31 vs. pass, No. 30 overall, No. 23 in points allowed per game (24.2); Lions, No. 26 vs. run, tied for 13th vs. pass, No. 19 overall, No. 22 in points (23.7); Saints, tied for 13th vs. run, No. 2 vs. pass, No. 4 overall, No. 4 in points (17); Cowboys, No. 22 vs. run, tied for 21st vs. pass, No. 22 overall, No. 28 in points (27.1); Bengals, No. 23 vs. run, No. 18 vs. pass, No. 18 overall, No. 26 in points (26.2); Jets, No. 5 vs. run, No. 16 vs. pass, No. 7 overall, No. 5 in points (17.7).

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Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 10

We'll get to much more in the next couple of days, but first our weekly rapid-fire reaction from the week that was (albeit a day later than you and I would like):

Start 'em

-- Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: With C.J. Spiller out at least a week with a hamstring injury and Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, the carries are all Jackson's. The latter had 25 rushes for 133 yards and a TD, along with six receptions for 37 yards and a score, last week against Detroit. Sunday, Buffalo will face Cincinnati, which ranks 22nd vs. the run and has given up eight TDs on the ground.

-- Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets: He has 10 receptions for 190 yards and a TD in his last two games (I'm guessing you remember the touchdown all too well), after compiling 10 catches for 131 yards and zero scores in his first three contests back from a four-game suspension. This week, the Jets face the Texans, who are allowing 301 yards passing per game and have yielded a league-worst 22 TD tosses.

-- Mario Manningham, WR, Giants: He has three touchdowns in his last four games, and in his first game with Steve Smith out, Manningham had 10 receptions for 91 yards and a TD last week. He's a must-play as long as Smith is out, which could be a few more games.

-- Jermaine Greshman, TE, Bengals: This is for deep leagues only. The rookie had the best game of his career last week, catching nine passes for 85 yards and a TD at Indy. He's had four or more catches in six of nine games, and Sunday he'll face the Bills, who have allowed 18 TD passes and totaled only two interceptions.

Sit 'em

-- Randy Moss, WR, Titans: I would dismiss him completely, but Tennessee's schedule the next three weeks -- the Redskins at home, at the Texans, home against the Jaguars -- is tempting. The three teams rank 29th (Jags), 31st (Redskins) and 32nd (Texans) against the pass and have allowed a combined 59 touchdown passes, compared to 22 interceptions, this season. Regardless, I have a difficult time playing a receiver who has five receptions for 64 yards and zero touchdowns in his last three games. The zero also matches how much Moss seems to care these days.

-- Jahvid Best, RB, Lions: If you can afford to make this move, I would. The rookie scored five TDs in his first two games, but has none since. On the season, he's averaging 3.1 yards per carry and has yet to hit the 400-yard mark on the ground.

Stat of the week

1:
Touchdown by Brandon Marshall this season. The Dolphins receiver scored in Week 3, and hasn't reached the end zone since. In the six-game scoreless span, Marshall has 33 catches for 362 yards.

Last season, Marshall had 101 receptions for 1,120 yards and 10 TDs for the Broncos. This year, he's on pace to come close to matching his 2009 totals in receptions and yards (98 for 1,159), while falling eight or nine TDs shy of his 10 from a year ago.

All of which begs the question: Are we witnessing possibly the worst 100-catch season in history?

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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 8

We'll address the impact of the Vikings unceremoniously dumping Randy Moss -- and seemingly infuriating everyone but Brad Childress in the process -- but first we'll take a quick trip around the NFL as we enter Week 9, just past the halfway point for leagues that play a 13-game regular season and three-week postseason.

-- Cadillac Williams, you had a good run, or at least an injury-filled one. But that sound you heard Sunday was the keys being handed to LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 120 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries against the Cardinals. Granted, it was the Cardinals, but considering the state of fantasy running backs, I'd play the young Buc who has rushed for 192 yards on 33 carries (5.8) in his last two games.

Start 'em

-- Jacob Tamme, TE, Colts: Hey, why not? First, you'll probably have to pick him up, since Tamme was owned in only 4.2 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com entering Week 8. Tamme didn't have a catch all season and had six catches for 47 yards in his three-year career prior to Monday. After a six-reception, 64-yard, one-TD performance in place of Dallas Clark against the Texans, he's certainly worth a starting spot.

-- Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions: He threw for 212 yards, four touchdowns and one interception his his first game since Week 1. He also has Calvin Johnson on his team. That's good enough for me.

-- Steve Breaston, WR, Cardinals: In his first appearance since Week 3, he had eight receptions for 147 yards. He's played in only four games and his quarterback may or may not be Derek Anderson, but if you need a third receiver, you could do a lot worse than a player who has 22 receptions for 330 yards in four games. An aside: Arizona's schedule in Weeks 14-16 (fantasy playoff time): home against Denver, at Carolina, home against Dallas.

Sit 'em

-- Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: He bruised his left forearm and sprained his ankle in Week 8. Since rushing 14 times for 109 yards and catching four passes for 17 yards in Week 5, he has 31 rushes for 89 yards (2.9) and zero touchdowns. The only positive (and it's not Marion Barber still poaching the goal-line carries): Jones has 16 catches for 102 yards in that span.

-- Donald Driver, WR, Packers: He's been bothered by thumb and quad injuries, leading to the veteran failing to catch a pass in back-to-back games. The Packers have a bye in Week 10, so it might make a lot of since to rest him Sunday against the visiting, reeling, rancid, rudderless (feel free to insert your negative description here) Cowboys.

Stock up

-- BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: Now this is a surprising development. A Patriots running back has a TD in five straight games, and his name sounds like someone you would choose to represent you if you're a Vikings fan deciding to sue Childress for neglect of talent. Green-Ellis had 17 carries for 112 yards and two scores against the Vikings. In the five-game span, he has rushed for 330 yards and six TDs, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Stock down

-- Jahvid Best, RB, Lions: Sunday, he split carries with Kevin Smith. The rookie had five TDs in his first two games and has zero in five contests since. He has rushed for 199 yards in the five games and is no longer an automatic start. Best is much better suited to PPR formats. He's on pace for 82 receptions this season.

-- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: He had nine carries for 7 yards in Week 8 at Oakland. He got some of our hopes up by scoring a TD in his first game after being traded by Buffalo to Seattle, but the former fantasy must-start has 33 carries for 96 yards (2.9) with zero TDs and zero receptions in his last two games.

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Monday, October 11, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 5

Before we hear a word or two about Brett Favre tonight -- and, for once, the ESPN crew will have to tell us something other than "he's having fun out there" and "Brett Favre is a competitor, and competitors like to compete" -- let's take a look back at another wild Sunday.

Some quick takes from Week 5:

-- Start 'em: Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis (five touchdowns in as many games, including three in the last two) and Rams receiver Danny Amendola. The latter is a must-play in point-per-reception formats after catching 12 passes for 95 yards on Sunday. With Mark Clayton (22 receptions for 300 yards and two TDs in the Rams' first four games) done for the season with a knee injury, Amendola is the team's best fantasy weapon aside from Steven Jackson.

-- Free-agent bin: Lions wide receiver Nate Burleson will be one of the most popular Week 6 pickups after catching four passes for 56 yards and one TD on Sunday. Burleson had only two catches for 23 yards in the first two weeks, then sat Detroit's next two games with an ankle injury. Calvin Johnson suffered a shoulder injury that has the Lions "very concerned," according to Coach Jim Schwartz, which could leave Burleson as Detroit's No. 1 wideout.

-- Drop 'em: Giants receiver Mario Manningham, who has been shut out the last two weeks.

-- You're still going to start Lions running back Jahvid Best, but your expectations should be sufficiently tempered after three consecutive games without a touchdown for the rookie. Best had five TDs the first two weeks -- a trend you knew was going to last about as long as Jon Gruden trying to hold back Favre praise.

-- I don't want to jinx it, but it seems Wade Phillips has finally realized Felix Jones (15 carries for 109 yards, four catches for 17 yards Sunday) is the Cowboys' best running back, not Marion Barber (six carries, 19 yards).

-- The We're Getting Impatient Department (which, incidentally, is co-chaired by Reggie Bush and Dwayne Bowe): Packers receiver Greg Jennings has six catches for 63 yards the last three weeks, with two receptions in each game. He's 17 yards shy of 200 for the year.

-- I don't believe in any Bears wide receiver. If Todd Collins is playing, the level of faith is reduced to Browns wide receiver level.

-- You don't need me to tell you the Panthers' anemic passing attack is crushing DeAngelo Williams' value. The running back has 35 carries for 201 yards in the last three games -- an impressive 5.7 yards-per-carry average. But it's hard to count on him week to week because of his lack of touches. Williams has one game with more than 16 touches, and he's scored one TD in five contests.

-- We're Getting Impatient, Take II: Texans quarterback Matt Schaub has had two productive games in five weeks, and one game with more than 241 yards passing.

-- Beanie Wells, we're waiting.

-- Almost as surprising as Felix Jones' expanded role: Cowboys teammate Roy Williams has had two productive games in a row (a combined 11 catches for 204 yards and three TDs). If you have bye-week issues, he's a decent No. 3 receiver.

-- That's more like it, Michael Crabtree.

-- Stats of the week: In four games since a huge Week 1 that was helped by garbage-time production in a 38-24 loss at New England, Chad Ochocinco has a combined 14 receptions for 157 yards and zero TDs. In the four-game span, the proud creator of "child please" hasn't had more than four catches and has failed to eclipse 59 yards in a contest.

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