Blogs > N-H Fantasy Sports

News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Fantasy football: DeMarco Murray injury analysis

Maybe we overvalued DeMarco Murray all along.

Sure, the Cowboys' running back was electric at times as a rookie in 2011 -- rushing for 897 yards, catching 26 passes for 183 yards and averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per touch -- but he also managed only two TDs all season, and he fractured his ankle in Week 13.

You might also remember that he wasn't exactly the most durable running back in Oklahoma history.

That didn't stop many of us from considering Murray a late first-round pick in fantasy.

Now we're left with the possibility of not trusting Murray after he suffered ligament damage in his left foot in Sunday's loss to the Ravens. Prior to getting hurt, Murray was on track to have his best game of the season -- he had 90 rushing yards in the first half at Baltimore.

The Cowboys' website reported Monday that Murray could be out this week and possible longer.

In about 4 1/2 games this season, Murray has rushed for 330 yards, is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has 17 receptions for 118 yards. The bad: Murray has one TD on 92 touches, and now has all of three TDs in two seasons.

If you own Murray, you have no choice but to hold on to him and hope for the best when he returns.

While owning and hoping, you should also make a bid to acquire Felix Jones via the waiver wire or trade.

Jones is available in almost 49 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com -- a figure that seems low to me, since he isn't on a roster in any of the leagues in which I compete. (OK, that's certainly not scientific, but wouldn't it stand to reason that Jones, who had three carries in Dallas' first four games, would be on the waiver wire in a vast majority of leagues?)

Jones ran for 92 yards on 18 carries Sunday, and he's been productive when given the opportunity in his five-year career.

In a loss to the Giants on Dec. 11, 2011, the game in which Murray broke his ankle, Jones rushed for 106 yards on 16 carries and caught six passes for 31 yards. The next week, Jones had 22 carries for 108 yards and three receptions for 23 yards.

In 2010, Jones rushed for 800 yards and caught 52 passes for 450 yards. In his career, he's averaged 5.1 yards per carry.

The problem, as is the case with Murray, is Jones is injury-prone and out-of-the-end-zone-prone. He had two touchdowns in his otherwise-impressive 2010, and he has 10 TDs in 53 career games.

But you won't be acquiring Jones for anything other than a short-term fix. In that case, he should be a bargain.

Sunday, the Cowboys will play at the Panthers, who rank 23rd against the run. Carolina is allowing an average of 127.4 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.

The following week, the Cowboys will play host to the Giants, who rank 16th against the run, a figure that is deceiving since New York is giving up 4.6 yards per carry.

If Murray is out, as expected, this week, Jones should be considered a decent No. 2 running back, especially in point-per-reception leagues -- and especially in Week 7, when six teams are on a bye.

Don't expect Jones to score a couple of touchdowns.

In hindsight, we shouldn't have expected that from Murray, either.

Labels: , ,

Friday, November 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Will Felix Jones affect DeMarco Murray's value?

The easy answer to the above question is yes.

The more thought-out, worry-free response is "not as much as you might think."

With running back Felix Jones missing the Cowboys last' four games because of a high ankle sprain, rookie DeMarco Murray has rushed for 601 yards on 75 carries, an average of 8.0 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns. Murray has a combined 10 receptions in his last two contests.

He has been among the season's most pleasant surprises -- a stud running back who was available on the waiver wire in mid-October.

This week, Jones has been limited in practice and could be back in Dallas' lineup Sunday at Washington.

The natural reaction is to worry his presence will significantly cut into Murray's role.

I wouldn't.

Murray has proven he is the featured back Jones has shown he never will be.

Jones is better suited to be a change-of-pace, every-three-series replacement.

In the two games this season in which Jones has had more than 15 carries (Sept. 11 and Oct. 2), he has a combined 31 rushes for 101 yards (3.3 yards per attempt). In his other three appearances, he has 152 yards on 31 carries (4.9).

In 2008, Jones averaged five carries in six games, and had a norm of 8.9 yards per attempt. In 2009, he averaged 8.3 carries in 14 games, and had a norm of 5.9 yards per carry.

Last season, his carries increased to 11.6 per contest, and his yards per attempt plummeted to 4.3.

Clearly, this isn't scientific data, but it seems to make sense that Jones is best used for eight to 10 carries a game.

The Cowboys have said Murray is still the top back, and there should plenty of opportunities for him to add to his ridiculous numbers.

In four of the next five weeks, Dallas faces a defense that ranks 18th or worse against the run -- Sunday at the Redskins (No. 18), Week 13 at the Cardinals (No. 21), Week 14 vs. the Giants (No. 20) and Week 15 at the Buccaneers (No. 29). The four teams have allowed a combined 41 rushing touchdowns in 36 games.

We should continue to consider Murray a top-10 running back until we're proven wrong.

(And be thankful it's Jason Garrett, not Mike Shanahan, who is in charge of running-back distribution.)

Labels: , ,

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Fantasy football: Week 8 waiver-wire picks

This week's batch of waiver-wire candidates is the weakest of the season, so we will present a few reminders before we unveil the highly anticipated top five.

-- Bengals running back Cedric Benson will serve his one-game suspension this week, leaving Bernard Scott as the featured back. Don't expect Scott to have a huge game Sunday at Seattle, which is allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, but if you need a one-game replacement because of bye weeks, Scott is a decent option as a low-end No. 2 back or upper-level flex play.

-- We wrote about DeMarco Murray extensively on Monday, but he entered this week available in more than 64 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, so he has to be mentioned in this space. Murray is a no-doubt-about-it choice as the top waiver-wire candidate if he's still available in your league.

-- We broke down the value of Seahawks running back Maurice Morris here, and mentioned him again here.

On to this week's waiver-wire selections. A quick reminder: We choose players who are available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com (this week's group is available in more than 64 percent of the ESPN formats).

1. Steve Breaston, WR, Chiefs (owned in 35.4 percent of the ESPN leagues):
Breaston has 13 receptions for 205 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games, a span in which the Chiefs are 3-0 and averaging 26 points per contest. This week's matchup against the Chargers (No. 3 vs. the pass) isn't great, but Kansas City will face Miami (No. 21 vs. the pass), Denver (No. 19) and New England (No. 32) in Weeks 9, 10 and 11.

2. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos (owned in 2.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): He made his season debut last week at Miami (aka The Game That Gave ESPN Another Reason To Debate Tebow) and had three catches for 27 yards and a TD. Thomas, a first-round pick by the Broncos in 2010, received a team-high 10 targets last week, and the trade of Brandon Lloyd to St. Louis should make Thomas Denver's second-best fantasy option at receiver (behind Eric Decker). I would consider Thomas a No. 4 or 5 receiver in deeper leagues.

3. Delone Carter, RB, Colts (16.9 percent): He is Indy's leading rusher at 259 yards, and last week was the Colts' only bright spot against the Saints (10 carries for 89 yards and a score). With Joseph Addai battling a hamstring injury, Carter -- a rookie fourth-round pick -- has received 36 carries the last three games. Even if Addai is forced to sit this week, Carter likely will share carries with Donald Brown (nine rushes for 47 yards last week), but he seems to have emerged as the Colts' top backfield option. If Addai is out, Carter is a decent flex play Sunday at Tennessee, which ranks 24th against the run.

4. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins (15.3 percent): Mike Shanahan warning! Mike Shanahan warning! As we wrote Monday, who knows what the Redskins will do now that Tim Hightower is out for the season? Ryan Torain would seem to be next in line, but Helu, a rookie fourth-round pick, has value strictly because of the possibility he could earn the featured role at some point this season. Helu has 27 carries for 131 yards this season (4.9), but he has only three rushes for 5 yards in Washington's last two games. I would rather avoid both Torain and Helu until their roles are more clearly defined, but Helu can be a Week 8 desperation play if you base it strictly on the Redskins' matchup (the Bills own the league's third-worst run defense and are giving up 5.1 yards per carry).

5. Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (14.0 percent): Miller has four receptions in each of his last two games, and he has a TD in two of his last three. He caught four passes for 59 yards and a score last week at Arizona, and Sunday the Steelers will play host to the Patriots and their league-worst pass defense (322 yards per game allowed). Miller should be considered a top-10 tight end this week.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (owned in 34.6 percent of the ESPN leagues); Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals (4.0 percent); Maurice Morris, RB, Lions (11.9); Greg Little, WR, Browns (9.0); Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals (33.8); David Nelson, WR, Bills (33.2); Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (6.6); Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals (30.6).

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Monday, October 24, 2011

Fantasy football: DeMarco Murray, Tebow and more Week 7 reactions

According to ESPN.com's ownership percentages, DeMarco Murray is available in more than 64 percent of the fantasy leagues run by the Worldwide Leader.

That number seems way too high, but the stat I'm more curious about is the percentage of owners who left Murray on their bench in Week 7 against the Rams, owners of the league's worst run defense.

Maybe I'm one of the few knuckleheads who did -- in my defense, I started Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Darren McFadden (my top three draft picks). I watched in horror as McFadden was injured early, Johnson had another unproductive game and Murray ran for a Cowboys franchise-record 253 yards on 25 carries -- in a game he didn't even start.

Murray, Dallas' third-round pick in 2011, missed most of training camp because of a hamstring injury and was getting his chance only because of a high ankle sprain suffered by Felix Jones.

We should also keep in mind that the Rams have been AWFUL against the run (183.8 yards allowed per game and 5.5 yards allowed per carry).

Will Murray deserve to be a fantasy starter the rest of the way? We have no way of knowing.

What we do know is if the Cowboys decide to make him their featured back over Jones once the latter is healthy, it will be an easy decision. Take a look at Dallas' schedule in Weeks 8 through 13: at Philadelphia (No. 23 vs. the run), vs. Seattle (No. 10), vs. Buffalo (No. 30), at Washington (No. 17), vs. Miami (No. 20) and at Arizona (No. 13).

We already are certain Murray is much more valuable than Tashard Choice, who received only two carries as Dallas' starter Sunday. The guess here is he will be a better play than Jones the rest of the way, too.

The problem: If the Cowboys don't agree and go to the dreaded backfield-by-committee plan when Jones returns, Murray will be a No. 3 fantasy back at best.

Take your time getting healthy, Felix. Seriously, take a long time.

Tebow time

I understand why Tim Tebow annoys fans. I get that the experts question his accuracy, his mechanics and whatever else the film shows.

What I don't understand is any skepticism that he's a fantasy starter at quarterback -- assuming, of course, he continues to hold the Broncos' job over Kyle Orton.

As we outlined on Oct. 11, Tebow produces when he plays. Sunday at Miami, he was awful for 54 minutes and 37 seconds (4-for-14 for 40 yards, and the Broncos were 0-for-10 on third down), and great from that point forward.

Tebow finished with 161 yards passing, two touchdowns, eight carries for 65 yards and a two-point conversion. He led Denver to 15 points in the last 2:44 of regulation and an overtime win -- albeit over a winless team.

Again, he produces. He's a top-10 or top-12 fantasy quarterback.

The endless debates, ESPN roundtables and everything else does get to be too much. But that doesn't mean he should be on your bench.

A few more quick takes from Week 7:

-- Until Jahvid Best returns from a concussion (and there is some speculation he won't this season), the Lions appear to have decided on a timeshare between Maurice Morris (nine carries for 50 yards and two catches for 13 yards on Sunday) and Keiland Williams (nine carries for 44 yards). Hint: Stay away.

-- Jackie Battle appears to be the Chiefs' choice as their featured back, though Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones did receive a combined 19 carries on Sunday. Battle had 16 carries for 76 yards at Oakland, giving him 35 rushes for 195 yards in his last two contests. The presence of McCluster and Jones makes Battle more of a flex play, but he's still a decent option, depending on the matchup (and this week, it's a good one, since the Chargers rank 21st against the run).

-- Mike Shanahan, Fantasy Tormentor, returned to Tim Hightower as his featured back on Sunday, and the latter was productive until he suffered a torn ACL on Sunday. Next up, we can only assume (which is dangerous when Shanahan is involved), in Washington is Ryan Torain, who had 19 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown on Oct. 2 against the (you guessed it) Rams but has received all of 12 attempts since. Don't discount rookie Roy Helu as an option, though, since the 2011 fourth-round pick has averaged 4.9 yards on 27 carries this season.

On second thought, maybe we should all just avoid Washington running backs.

We'll be back Tuesday with waiver-wire picks for Week 8. Until then, enjoy Jon Gruden tonight.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Fantasy football: Jahvid Best/Maurice Morris analysis

It all started with a seemingly innocuous note in Mike Freeman's Ten-Point Stance on CBSSports.com.

Freeman's third item in his Wednesday column: "People close to Detroit runner Jahvid Best are expressing concern to him that he needs to strongly consider sitting out the year, I'm told. Best suffered his second concussion of the season this past week. He was forced to miss the final four games of his college career due to concussion-like symptoms."

The Lions wouldn't comment on the report, but have expressed belief that the running back will return soon. Coach Jim Schwartz said Best will be back as soon as he gets clearance from the doctors.

That, combined with Adam Schefter's ESPN report that backup Jerome Harrison's trade to Philadelphia for Ronnie Brown was voided because Eagles doctors discovered a tumor in Harrison's brain, have left Maurice Morris as the primary backfield option for an offense that is averaging 29.7 points per game.

Morris, a 10-year veteran, has nine carries for 20 yards and five receptions for 55 yards on the season. His career high is 628 yards rushing in a season, and he has scored 16 TDs in 135 career games.

With six teams on a bye again this week, many owners could be looking for help at running back. If you're one of them, consider Morris a flex play at best.

He's more valuable in point-per-reception leagues (he had a combined 51 catches in 2009 and '10), but he's still not a top-20 running back even in weeks in which only 26 teams are playing.

Morris did have five TDs in his last six games in 2010, when Best had tailed off considerably after a strong start to his rookie season. In that span, Morris rushed for 295 yards and caught 14 passes while averaging 13.8 touches per contest.

Sunday, the Lions will play host to the Falcons, who rank seventh in the league against the run (97.5 rushing yards per game). Atlanta is in the bottom nine of the league in rushing TDs allowed (six).

In Week 8, Detroit will face Denver, which is No. 23 against the run at 123.4 yards per game. A bye follows in Week 9.

We can only assume Best, at worst, will return by Week 10, but keep in mind that he has had three concussions in two NFL seasons and, as Freeman wrote, had concussion issues in college.

If you own Best, your only choice is to keep him on your bench until he returns. He obviously has little trade value. Morris, meanwhile, entered this week available in more than 99 percent of the ESPN.com leagues.

That total has changed (by how much, we're not sure, since Morris' ESPN ownership percentage was listed as 0.8 Thursday night), but he still can be had in most formats. The possibility he could be the featured back for an extended period on a team with a potent offense automatically gives him value.

Just make sure you place said value at a realistic (read: outside the top 25 at his position) level.

Murray is the man

Since we're on the subject of injured running backs, DeMarco Murray -- one of our waiver-wire picks this week -- should be considered a No. 2 fantasy running back in Week 7.

Felix Jones is out because of a high ankle sprain, and Murray should get more work than backfield mate Tashard Choice.

The reason we're so high on Murray, a rookie who has yet to rush for more than 32 yards in a game this season: Dallas will play host to St. Louis, which owns the league's worst run defense at 163 yards per game and is yielding 4.9 yards per carry.

Choice, who is an effective receiver, is a decent flex play against the Rams.

Labels: , , ,

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Carson Palmer analysis, plus Week 7 waiver-wire picks

Late Monday night, I wrote about how rare big-name trades were in the NFL.

About 12 hours later, the Bengals and Raiders made that paragraph appear more dated than a sports broadcast in standard definition.

Ladies and gentlemen, Carson Palmer is a Raider -- all logic, and high draft picks, be damned.

Yes, Palmer threw for 3,970 yards and 26 touchdowns last season. He also threw 20 interceptions.

In 36 games since the start of the 2008 season, he has 50 TD passes and 37 picks.

Even in 2007, when he threw for a career-high 4,131 yards, he tossed 20 interceptions.

His only truly elite years were 2005 and '06, when he had a combined 7,871 yards passing, 60 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.

Now he will be force-fed a Raiders offense that is run-first, led by the electric Darren McFadden (610 yards rushing, 5.5 yards per carry, four TDs on the ground).

Oakland has rushed for 960 yards and 10 TDs in six games. The Raiders are averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

It is no wonder, then, that Jason Campbell, prior to his injury Sunday against the Browns, had thrown for a pedestrian 1,170 yards and six TDs.

Palmer isn't going to be asked to save the Raiders. He will be asked not to screw them up -- a feat of which Oakland obviously believed Kyle Boller was more than capable.

In Oakland, Palmer will have Darrius Heyward-Bey, once maligned as another terrible Al Davis draft pick, as his top target. Heyward-Bey has 17 receptions for 296 yards and one TD in his last three games.

After that, it's Denarius Moore (who had five catches for 146 yards and a TD against Buffalo, but has eight receptions for 62 yards and a score in his other four games), tight end Kevin Boss and the running backs.

All of which is a long way of saying don't expect Palmer to provide a big boost to your fantasy team.

He should be considered a high-end backup at best, and a decent bye-week fill-in depending on the matchup.

The upside: You won't have to give up a first- and second-round pick to acquire him on the waiver wire.

While we're on the subject, here are five more waiver-wire candidates this week. All are available in more than two-thirds on the leagues on ESPN.com.

1. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (owned in 3.3 percent of the ESPN leagues): Felix Jones will miss at least this week, and likely more, with a high ankle sprain, leaving Murray and Tashard Choice to share the carries. Of the two, Murray should receive the most work. The rookie, a third-round pick from Oklahoma, had 10 carries for 32 yards and one catch for 7 yards last week. Choice, meanwhile, had five rushes for 14 yards and three catches for 16 yards. He is the better receiver of the two.

Murray is a quality play this week against the Rams, who own the league's worst run defense at 163 yards per game. The latter number is so bad Choice should be a flex candidate in deeper leagues if you need bye-week help.

2. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals (owned in 5.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): You'll have to wait a week, since Cincinnati is on a bye, but Scott should be the Bengals' featured back in Week 8 against Seattle. Cedric Benson had his three-game suspension reduced to one Tuesday and likely will serve it next week. Scott should get most of the work against Seattle, which, surprisingly, ranks seventh against the run (97.8 yards per game). The Seahawks -- attention owners of Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty -- are allowing a league-low 3.1 yards per carry.

3. Greg Little, WR, Browns (owned in 8.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): He's clearly the Browns' No. 1 receiver (insert your joke, or insult, here), and the rookie has six receptions in each of his last two games. He's not going to score seven or eight TDs (heck, he has yet to reach the end zone once), but in point-per-reception formats, Little could be worth 12 to 15 points per game because of the amount of targets he should receive.

4. Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals (owned in 36.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): OK, so he might not be the best role model (allegedly), or the smartest guy around. But he does have two 100-yard games in his last five, including a six-catch, 101-yard performance last week. Who needs Palmer when you have Andy Dalton? (Remember, the franchise formerly known as the Bungles has this week off.)

5. Ronnie Brown, RB, Lions (owned in 15.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): I'll be blunt: Brown is of value only if Jahvid Best is forced to sit because of concussion-like symptoms. If that's the case, Brown should share the load with Maurice Morris on Sunday against the Falcons. Brown had a disappointing 2010 and had 13 carries for 38 yards (a 2.9 average) with the Eagles this season. At best, he's a flex play for running back-needy owners if Best is inactive this week.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos (owned in 40.6 percent of the ESPN leagues); Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (12.2 percent); David Nelson, WR, Bills (45.9 percent); Jackie Battle, RB, Chiefs (26.3 percent); Donald Brown, Colts (1.6 percent).

Labels: , , , , , ,