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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Fantasy football: DeMarco Murray injury analysis

Maybe we overvalued DeMarco Murray all along.

Sure, the Cowboys' running back was electric at times as a rookie in 2011 -- rushing for 897 yards, catching 26 passes for 183 yards and averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per touch -- but he also managed only two TDs all season, and he fractured his ankle in Week 13.

You might also remember that he wasn't exactly the most durable running back in Oklahoma history.

That didn't stop many of us from considering Murray a late first-round pick in fantasy.

Now we're left with the possibility of not trusting Murray after he suffered ligament damage in his left foot in Sunday's loss to the Ravens. Prior to getting hurt, Murray was on track to have his best game of the season -- he had 90 rushing yards in the first half at Baltimore.

The Cowboys' website reported Monday that Murray could be out this week and possible longer.

In about 4 1/2 games this season, Murray has rushed for 330 yards, is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has 17 receptions for 118 yards. The bad: Murray has one TD on 92 touches, and now has all of three TDs in two seasons.

If you own Murray, you have no choice but to hold on to him and hope for the best when he returns.

While owning and hoping, you should also make a bid to acquire Felix Jones via the waiver wire or trade.

Jones is available in almost 49 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com -- a figure that seems low to me, since he isn't on a roster in any of the leagues in which I compete. (OK, that's certainly not scientific, but wouldn't it stand to reason that Jones, who had three carries in Dallas' first four games, would be on the waiver wire in a vast majority of leagues?)

Jones ran for 92 yards on 18 carries Sunday, and he's been productive when given the opportunity in his five-year career.

In a loss to the Giants on Dec. 11, 2011, the game in which Murray broke his ankle, Jones rushed for 106 yards on 16 carries and caught six passes for 31 yards. The next week, Jones had 22 carries for 108 yards and three receptions for 23 yards.

In 2010, Jones rushed for 800 yards and caught 52 passes for 450 yards. In his career, he's averaged 5.1 yards per carry.

The problem, as is the case with Murray, is Jones is injury-prone and out-of-the-end-zone-prone. He had two touchdowns in his otherwise-impressive 2010, and he has 10 TDs in 53 career games.

But you won't be acquiring Jones for anything other than a short-term fix. In that case, he should be a bargain.

Sunday, the Cowboys will play at the Panthers, who rank 23rd against the run. Carolina is allowing an average of 127.4 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.

The following week, the Cowboys will play host to the Giants, who rank 16th against the run, a figure that is deceiving since New York is giving up 4.6 yards per carry.

If Murray is out, as expected, this week, Jones should be considered a decent No. 2 running back, especially in point-per-reception leagues -- and especially in Week 7, when six teams are on a bye.

Don't expect Jones to score a couple of touchdowns.

In hindsight, we shouldn't have expected that from Murray, either.

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Friday, November 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Will Felix Jones affect DeMarco Murray's value?

The easy answer to the above question is yes.

The more thought-out, worry-free response is "not as much as you might think."

With running back Felix Jones missing the Cowboys last' four games because of a high ankle sprain, rookie DeMarco Murray has rushed for 601 yards on 75 carries, an average of 8.0 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns. Murray has a combined 10 receptions in his last two contests.

He has been among the season's most pleasant surprises -- a stud running back who was available on the waiver wire in mid-October.

This week, Jones has been limited in practice and could be back in Dallas' lineup Sunday at Washington.

The natural reaction is to worry his presence will significantly cut into Murray's role.

I wouldn't.

Murray has proven he is the featured back Jones has shown he never will be.

Jones is better suited to be a change-of-pace, every-three-series replacement.

In the two games this season in which Jones has had more than 15 carries (Sept. 11 and Oct. 2), he has a combined 31 rushes for 101 yards (3.3 yards per attempt). In his other three appearances, he has 152 yards on 31 carries (4.9).

In 2008, Jones averaged five carries in six games, and had a norm of 8.9 yards per attempt. In 2009, he averaged 8.3 carries in 14 games, and had a norm of 5.9 yards per carry.

Last season, his carries increased to 11.6 per contest, and his yards per attempt plummeted to 4.3.

Clearly, this isn't scientific data, but it seems to make sense that Jones is best used for eight to 10 carries a game.

The Cowboys have said Murray is still the top back, and there should plenty of opportunities for him to add to his ridiculous numbers.

In four of the next five weeks, Dallas faces a defense that ranks 18th or worse against the run -- Sunday at the Redskins (No. 18), Week 13 at the Cardinals (No. 21), Week 14 vs. the Giants (No. 20) and Week 15 at the Buccaneers (No. 29). The four teams have allowed a combined 41 rushing touchdowns in 36 games.

We should continue to consider Murray a top-10 running back until we're proven wrong.

(And be thankful it's Jason Garrett, not Mike Shanahan, who is in charge of running-back distribution.)

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Monday, October 24, 2011

Fantasy football: DeMarco Murray, Tebow and more Week 7 reactions

According to ESPN.com's ownership percentages, DeMarco Murray is available in more than 64 percent of the fantasy leagues run by the Worldwide Leader.

That number seems way too high, but the stat I'm more curious about is the percentage of owners who left Murray on their bench in Week 7 against the Rams, owners of the league's worst run defense.

Maybe I'm one of the few knuckleheads who did -- in my defense, I started Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Darren McFadden (my top three draft picks). I watched in horror as McFadden was injured early, Johnson had another unproductive game and Murray ran for a Cowboys franchise-record 253 yards on 25 carries -- in a game he didn't even start.

Murray, Dallas' third-round pick in 2011, missed most of training camp because of a hamstring injury and was getting his chance only because of a high ankle sprain suffered by Felix Jones.

We should also keep in mind that the Rams have been AWFUL against the run (183.8 yards allowed per game and 5.5 yards allowed per carry).

Will Murray deserve to be a fantasy starter the rest of the way? We have no way of knowing.

What we do know is if the Cowboys decide to make him their featured back over Jones once the latter is healthy, it will be an easy decision. Take a look at Dallas' schedule in Weeks 8 through 13: at Philadelphia (No. 23 vs. the run), vs. Seattle (No. 10), vs. Buffalo (No. 30), at Washington (No. 17), vs. Miami (No. 20) and at Arizona (No. 13).

We already are certain Murray is much more valuable than Tashard Choice, who received only two carries as Dallas' starter Sunday. The guess here is he will be a better play than Jones the rest of the way, too.

The problem: If the Cowboys don't agree and go to the dreaded backfield-by-committee plan when Jones returns, Murray will be a No. 3 fantasy back at best.

Take your time getting healthy, Felix. Seriously, take a long time.

Tebow time

I understand why Tim Tebow annoys fans. I get that the experts question his accuracy, his mechanics and whatever else the film shows.

What I don't understand is any skepticism that he's a fantasy starter at quarterback -- assuming, of course, he continues to hold the Broncos' job over Kyle Orton.

As we outlined on Oct. 11, Tebow produces when he plays. Sunday at Miami, he was awful for 54 minutes and 37 seconds (4-for-14 for 40 yards, and the Broncos were 0-for-10 on third down), and great from that point forward.

Tebow finished with 161 yards passing, two touchdowns, eight carries for 65 yards and a two-point conversion. He led Denver to 15 points in the last 2:44 of regulation and an overtime win -- albeit over a winless team.

Again, he produces. He's a top-10 or top-12 fantasy quarterback.

The endless debates, ESPN roundtables and everything else does get to be too much. But that doesn't mean he should be on your bench.

A few more quick takes from Week 7:

-- Until Jahvid Best returns from a concussion (and there is some speculation he won't this season), the Lions appear to have decided on a timeshare between Maurice Morris (nine carries for 50 yards and two catches for 13 yards on Sunday) and Keiland Williams (nine carries for 44 yards). Hint: Stay away.

-- Jackie Battle appears to be the Chiefs' choice as their featured back, though Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones did receive a combined 19 carries on Sunday. Battle had 16 carries for 76 yards at Oakland, giving him 35 rushes for 195 yards in his last two contests. The presence of McCluster and Jones makes Battle more of a flex play, but he's still a decent option, depending on the matchup (and this week, it's a good one, since the Chargers rank 21st against the run).

-- Mike Shanahan, Fantasy Tormentor, returned to Tim Hightower as his featured back on Sunday, and the latter was productive until he suffered a torn ACL on Sunday. Next up, we can only assume (which is dangerous when Shanahan is involved), in Washington is Ryan Torain, who had 19 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown on Oct. 2 against the (you guessed it) Rams but has received all of 12 attempts since. Don't discount rookie Roy Helu as an option, though, since the 2011 fourth-round pick has averaged 4.9 yards on 27 carries this season.

On second thought, maybe we should all just avoid Washington running backs.

We'll be back Tuesday with waiver-wire picks for Week 8. Until then, enjoy Jon Gruden tonight.

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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's games

A quick note before we get to the goodies: Click here for today's analysis of Vincent Jackson's fantasy value, along with items on Keiland Williams and Blair White, and a few quick hitters for today's games.

PATRIOTS AT LIONS

Start 'em


Patriots: QB Tom Brady, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Wes Welker, WR Deion Branch

Lions: QB Shaun Hill, WR Calvin Johnson, WR Nate Burleson, TE Brandon Pettigrew

Sit 'em

Patriots:
RB Danny Woodhead, TE Aaron Hernandez, TE Rob Gronkowski, defense and special teams, K Shayne Graham

Lions: RB Jahvid Best, RB Maurice Morris, TE Tony Scheffler, defense and special teams, K Dave Rayner

SAINTS AT COWBOYS

Start 'em

Saints:
QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, WR Lance Moore, defense and special teams, K Garrett Hartley

Cowboys: WR Miles Austin, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten

Sit 'em

Saints:
RB Chris Ivory, RB Reggie Bush, WR Robert Meachem, TE Jeremy Shockey

Cowboys: QB Jon Kitna, RB Felix Jones, RB Marion Barber, RB Tashard Choice, WR Roy Williams, defense and special teams, K David Buehler

BENGALS AT JETS

Start 'em

Bengals:
RB Cedric Benson, WR Terrell Owens, WR Chad Ochocinco

Jets: QB Mark Sanchez, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Braylon Edwards, WR Santonio Holmes, defense and special teams, K Nick Folk

Sit 'em

Bengals:
QB Carson Palmer, WR Jordan Shipley, TE Jermaine Gresham, defense and special teams, K Mike Nugent

Jets: RB Shonn Greene, TE Dustin Keller

QUICK SLANTS

-- As I wrote in the column that was linked to at the top, the Lions' Best isn't a good play after a game in which he had all of five touches. Teammate Maurice Morris had 14 touches in Week 11, and Best is bothered by a toe injury.

-- The Patriots' Woodhead is an OK play if you really need help at running back, but he shouldn't be considered a No. 2 back in 10- and 12-team leagues. The Lions rank 26th against the run and have allowed 11 TDs on the ground.

-- Reggie Bush is expected to play for the first time since Week 2, but at this point, he is at best a low-end flex play in point-per-reception leagues. Pierre Thomas has been ruled out for the Saints and Chris Ivory is coming off his best game since Week 6, but he and Bush are risky plays.

-- The Cowboys' Felix Jones could sit because of a hip injury. If that's the case, Tashard Choice is an intriguing option in PPR leagues because of his receiving ability. And it doesn't hurt that Marion Barber has been so bad (294 yards, 3.2 per carry) that the Cowboys might be anxious to give someone else a chance.

-- The Jets' Sanchez is an intriguing option after throwing for a combined 614 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games.

-- The rankings for the defenses: Patriots, No. 17 vs. run, No. 31 vs. pass, No. 30 overall, No. 23 in points allowed per game (24.2); Lions, No. 26 vs. run, tied for 13th vs. pass, No. 19 overall, No. 22 in points (23.7); Saints, tied for 13th vs. run, No. 2 vs. pass, No. 4 overall, No. 4 in points (17); Cowboys, No. 22 vs. run, tied for 21st vs. pass, No. 22 overall, No. 28 in points (27.1); Bengals, No. 23 vs. run, No. 18 vs. pass, No. 18 overall, No. 26 in points (26.2); Jets, No. 5 vs. run, No. 16 vs. pass, No. 7 overall, No. 5 in points (17.7).

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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 8

We'll address the impact of the Vikings unceremoniously dumping Randy Moss -- and seemingly infuriating everyone but Brad Childress in the process -- but first we'll take a quick trip around the NFL as we enter Week 9, just past the halfway point for leagues that play a 13-game regular season and three-week postseason.

-- Cadillac Williams, you had a good run, or at least an injury-filled one. But that sound you heard Sunday was the keys being handed to LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 120 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries against the Cardinals. Granted, it was the Cardinals, but considering the state of fantasy running backs, I'd play the young Buc who has rushed for 192 yards on 33 carries (5.8) in his last two games.

Start 'em

-- Jacob Tamme, TE, Colts: Hey, why not? First, you'll probably have to pick him up, since Tamme was owned in only 4.2 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com entering Week 8. Tamme didn't have a catch all season and had six catches for 47 yards in his three-year career prior to Monday. After a six-reception, 64-yard, one-TD performance in place of Dallas Clark against the Texans, he's certainly worth a starting spot.

-- Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions: He threw for 212 yards, four touchdowns and one interception his his first game since Week 1. He also has Calvin Johnson on his team. That's good enough for me.

-- Steve Breaston, WR, Cardinals: In his first appearance since Week 3, he had eight receptions for 147 yards. He's played in only four games and his quarterback may or may not be Derek Anderson, but if you need a third receiver, you could do a lot worse than a player who has 22 receptions for 330 yards in four games. An aside: Arizona's schedule in Weeks 14-16 (fantasy playoff time): home against Denver, at Carolina, home against Dallas.

Sit 'em

-- Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: He bruised his left forearm and sprained his ankle in Week 8. Since rushing 14 times for 109 yards and catching four passes for 17 yards in Week 5, he has 31 rushes for 89 yards (2.9) and zero touchdowns. The only positive (and it's not Marion Barber still poaching the goal-line carries): Jones has 16 catches for 102 yards in that span.

-- Donald Driver, WR, Packers: He's been bothered by thumb and quad injuries, leading to the veteran failing to catch a pass in back-to-back games. The Packers have a bye in Week 10, so it might make a lot of since to rest him Sunday against the visiting, reeling, rancid, rudderless (feel free to insert your negative description here) Cowboys.

Stock up

-- BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: Now this is a surprising development. A Patriots running back has a TD in five straight games, and his name sounds like someone you would choose to represent you if you're a Vikings fan deciding to sue Childress for neglect of talent. Green-Ellis had 17 carries for 112 yards and two scores against the Vikings. In the five-game span, he has rushed for 330 yards and six TDs, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Stock down

-- Jahvid Best, RB, Lions: Sunday, he split carries with Kevin Smith. The rookie had five TDs in his first two games and has zero in five contests since. He has rushed for 199 yards in the five games and is no longer an automatic start. Best is much better suited to PPR formats. He's on pace for 82 receptions this season.

-- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: He had nine carries for 7 yards in Week 8 at Oakland. He got some of our hopes up by scoring a TD in his first game after being traded by Buffalo to Seattle, but the former fantasy must-start has 33 carries for 96 yards (2.9) with zero TDs and zero receptions in his last two games.

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Monday, October 18, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 6

Before we watch Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew go head-to-head tonight, and see whether Good Mike Sims-Walker (Weeks 2 and 4) or awful MSW (Weeks 1, 3 and 5) shows up under the watchful eyes of Jon "I Love Everyone" Gruden, let's get to some quick takes from the sixth Sunday of the NFL season.

-- Again, take your time, Clinton Portis. Those of us lucky enough to acquire Ryan Torain a few weeks ago are reaping the benefits. The Redskins running back had 20 carries for 100 yards and two touchdowns Sunday night, and he has 210 yards and three TDs on the ground in his last three games. He's a No. 2 back in any format.

-- Welcome back, Dwayne Bowe (six receptions, 108 yards and two TDs), but I still don't trust you. The Chiefs receiver had nine receptions and one TD in his first four contests.

Start 'em


-- Colts receiver Pierre Garcon, who has 10 receptions for 160 yards and one TD the last two weeks. Viewed as a top-20 receiver entering the season, Garcon was upstaged by Austin Collie in Weeks 1 and 2 (the former Mount Union standout had a combined four catches for 54 yards in the two games), then sat the next two contests because of a hamstring injury. He seems healthy now, and Peyton Manning continues to prove he can keep everyone happy -- Collie, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark each had at least six catches Sunday night.

-- Patriots receiver Deion Branch, who had nine receptions for 98 yards and a TD in his first game back with Tom Brady. The Pats spread the ball around as much as the Colts, but Branch seems to be the safest wide receiver option other than PPR machine Wes Welker. The latter had seven catches in his first game post-Moss.

-- Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb, as long as Andy Reid keeps starting him, of course. In two games with Michael Vick out with a rib injury, Kolb has completed 73.3 percent of his passes (44 of 60) for 579 yards, with four touchdowns and one interception. Now healthy (Kolb suffered a concussion in Week 1, which led to Vick's resurgence), he seems to be a top-10 fantasy QB when in Philly's lineup.

-- If Dolphins receiver Davone Bess is still available in your league (he's somehow owned in fewer than 19 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com), pick him up and play him every week in PPR formats. Bess has 19 receptions for 219 yards and two TDs in his last three games.

Sit 'em

-- Broncos receiver Eddie Royal, who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 and has seven catches for 68 yards and zero TDs the last two games. Royal had a promising first four weeks (25 receptions for 299 yards and two TDs), but now seems to be the No. 3 option behind Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney.

-- Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown, if you have the roster flexibility. Brown hasn't scored since Week 1, hasn't rushed for more than 80 yards in a game, and he has only 10 catches for 53 yards on the season. As a Brown owner, I also don't feel good about Ricky Williams' numbers the last two contests: 21 carries for 120 yards (5.7 average), five receptions for 44 yards and an average of 6.3 yards per touch.

Stock up

-- Seahawks receiver Mike Williams, who had 10 catches for 123 yards in his first game since Branch was traded to the Patriots. I wouldn't consider him an every-week starter (he had 11 receptions in his first four games), but Williams is the best fantasy receiving option on the Seahawks.

-- Lions receiver Nate Burleson, who has a touchdown in consecutive weeks and has 10 catches in that span. He is a No. 3 fantasy wideout.

Stock down

-- Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, who has zero touchdowns and one interception in his last two games. If you have two quality quarterbacks -- say Kolb, Kyle Orton or Ben Roethlisberger -- I'd start any of the three over Cutler.

Stat of the week

43: Cowboys running back Felix Jones' touches in his last two games. Jones had 10 receptions in Week 6 and clearly is Dallas' top back, and Wade Phillips finally realized it -- or he was told that was the case by Lord Jerry Jones, Ruler Of The Annual Underachievers.

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Monday, October 11, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 5

Before we hear a word or two about Brett Favre tonight -- and, for once, the ESPN crew will have to tell us something other than "he's having fun out there" and "Brett Favre is a competitor, and competitors like to compete" -- let's take a look back at another wild Sunday.

Some quick takes from Week 5:

-- Start 'em: Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis (five touchdowns in as many games, including three in the last two) and Rams receiver Danny Amendola. The latter is a must-play in point-per-reception formats after catching 12 passes for 95 yards on Sunday. With Mark Clayton (22 receptions for 300 yards and two TDs in the Rams' first four games) done for the season with a knee injury, Amendola is the team's best fantasy weapon aside from Steven Jackson.

-- Free-agent bin: Lions wide receiver Nate Burleson will be one of the most popular Week 6 pickups after catching four passes for 56 yards and one TD on Sunday. Burleson had only two catches for 23 yards in the first two weeks, then sat Detroit's next two games with an ankle injury. Calvin Johnson suffered a shoulder injury that has the Lions "very concerned," according to Coach Jim Schwartz, which could leave Burleson as Detroit's No. 1 wideout.

-- Drop 'em: Giants receiver Mario Manningham, who has been shut out the last two weeks.

-- You're still going to start Lions running back Jahvid Best, but your expectations should be sufficiently tempered after three consecutive games without a touchdown for the rookie. Best had five TDs the first two weeks -- a trend you knew was going to last about as long as Jon Gruden trying to hold back Favre praise.

-- I don't want to jinx it, but it seems Wade Phillips has finally realized Felix Jones (15 carries for 109 yards, four catches for 17 yards Sunday) is the Cowboys' best running back, not Marion Barber (six carries, 19 yards).

-- The We're Getting Impatient Department (which, incidentally, is co-chaired by Reggie Bush and Dwayne Bowe): Packers receiver Greg Jennings has six catches for 63 yards the last three weeks, with two receptions in each game. He's 17 yards shy of 200 for the year.

-- I don't believe in any Bears wide receiver. If Todd Collins is playing, the level of faith is reduced to Browns wide receiver level.

-- You don't need me to tell you the Panthers' anemic passing attack is crushing DeAngelo Williams' value. The running back has 35 carries for 201 yards in the last three games -- an impressive 5.7 yards-per-carry average. But it's hard to count on him week to week because of his lack of touches. Williams has one game with more than 16 touches, and he's scored one TD in five contests.

-- We're Getting Impatient, Take II: Texans quarterback Matt Schaub has had two productive games in five weeks, and one game with more than 241 yards passing.

-- Beanie Wells, we're waiting.

-- Almost as surprising as Felix Jones' expanded role: Cowboys teammate Roy Williams has had two productive games in a row (a combined 11 catches for 204 yards and three TDs). If you have bye-week issues, he's a decent No. 3 receiver.

-- That's more like it, Michael Crabtree.

-- Stats of the week: In four games since a huge Week 1 that was helped by garbage-time production in a 38-24 loss at New England, Chad Ochocinco has a combined 14 receptions for 157 yards and zero TDs. In the four-game span, the proud creator of "child please" hasn't had more than four catches and has failed to eclipse 59 yards in a contest.

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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Pick three: Things we've learned in the NFL playoffs

We already knew the studio crews laugh at everything, Phil Simms talks too much, Shannon Sharpe should provide the audio for every highlight and Tony Siragusa's shtick wore out its welcome whenever it was he worked the sidelines for the second time.

The following we might not have been aware of until the last two weeks:

1. Felix Jones will be a high draft pick next season: In 20 regular-season games with the Cowboys, the second-year running back has averaged 6.5 yards per carry and has six touchdowns on 167 carries. In two playoff games, Jones rushed 30 times for 217 yards and a TD, and he caught four passes for 52 yards.

Marion Barber, who has never rushed for 1,000 yards in a season and has had back-to-back mediocre years, will still be around in 2010 to steal carries, especially at the goal line, but the guess here is the Cowboys will make Jones -- their first-round pick in 2008 -- the featured back.

2. Same goes for Shonn Greene: The Jets' postseason run has been only slightly more improbable than a fantasy development that will get much more notice next season. Greene, a rookie from Iowa who rushed for 540 yards in the regular season, has been the Jets' featured back in the playoffs, not Thomas Jones, who rushed for 1,402 yards and 14 scores in the regular season.

Jones has been hampered by a knee injury, allowing Greene to carry 44 times for 263 yards (6.0 per carry) and two TDs in two postseason games. Jones has 29 carries for 75 yards and a score in that span.

As is the case with the Cowboys, a 2010 time share is likely, but the explosive Greene is big enough (226 pounds) to absorb a 20-carry-per-game pounding. If Greene is allowed to be the workhorse, he should be considered an upper-level No. 2 back.

3. Ravens running back Ray Rice will get strong consideration as the No. 2 overall pick in point-per-reception leagues:
Chris Johnson, who became the sixth player in history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season, has cemented his place as the top pick in any format next season. In PPR leagues, however, Rice probably is a better pick than Adrian Peterson, but would we be able to pull the trigger on such a move?

Consider the following numbers: Rice had 2,041 total yards, eight TDs and 78 receptions in the regular season. After Baltimore's bye week, he had 1,392 total yards in 10 games -- which equates to 2,227 yards for a 16-game season.

Peterson, meanwhile, had 1,819 total yards, 18 TDs and 43 catches for the Vikings. In TD-heavy scoring formats, he's a safer selection than Rice. In PPR formats, Rice, who doesn't turn 23 until Friday, would seem to be the pick.

Then there's this: Peterson hasn't rushed for 100 yards since Week 10 against the Lions.

Would I love to have him on my team? Yes. At the expense of Rice? We'll have to mull over that one this summer.

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Saturday, September 26, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit, expanded playlist and more for Week 3

Before we get to the start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist, here are a few injury notes:

-- The assumption here is Marion Barber is going to sit Monday night against the Panthers because of a quadriceps injury. If that's the case, electric Cowboys second-year back Julius Jones should be a quality play against a Carolina defense that is tied for 27th in the league in stopping the run, allowing 168 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. In eight career games, Jones, a first-round pick in 2008, has 43 carries for 384 yards (8.9 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns.

-- Expect Brian Westbrook's status to be announced about 15 minutes before kickoff Sunday. The Eagles back missed practice all week because of an ankle injury (stop if you've heard that before), but, unlike most players, that's never been a true indication that he won't play when it matters. The Eagles have a bye next week and might be more inclined to rest Westbrook, which would clear the way for rookie LeSean McCoy. Should that happen, McCoy is a good start, especially in point-per-reception leagues, vs. the Chiefs, who rank 21st against the run.

-- Mike Bell is out this week because of a knee injury, which is welcome news for Pierre Thomas owners. The latter, who missed the Saints' first game because of a knee injury and played sparingly in Week 2, should get the majority of the carries Sunday against the Bills. Reggie Bush is a worthwhile play in PPR leagues, but likely won't be much of a help in yardage- and TD-heavy formats.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Eli Manning, QB, Giants, at Buccaneers:
He’s thrown for 586 yards and three touchdowns with a passer rating of 103.2. The Buccaneers rank 27th against the pass and have allowed the second-most TD throws in the league (five).

-- Trent Edwards, QB, Bills, vs. Saints:
He’s thrown for more than 200 yards and two scores in each of Buffalo’s first two games, and the Saints rank 29th vs. the pass.

-- Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns: With four TDs, 4.9 yards per carry and six receptions, he’s one of the early season surprises. The Browns, as usual, can’t stop the run (No. 31, a league-high five rushing scores allowed).

-- Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers, vs. Dolphins: With LaDainian Tomlinson sitting for a second straight week, the explosive Sproles should have a productive game against a defense that has struggled mightily against the pass. Sproles has only 19 carries for 49 yards, but has thrived as a receiver, with 12 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown. He has scored a TD in each of the Chargers' first two games.

-- Devery Henderson, WR, Saints, at Bills: He has eight receptions for 174 yards, a 21.8-yard average that resembles his career norm of 21.6. With Lance Moore out because of a hamstring injury, Henderson will start against a Bills defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has given up five TD throws in two games.

More matchups I like:


Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Browns; Kevin Kolb, QB, Eagles, vs. Chiefs; David Garrard, QB, Jaguars, at Texans; Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints, at Bills; Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys, vs. Panthers; Ray Rice, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns; Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals, vs. Colts; Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers, vs. Giants

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Thomas Jones, RB, Jets, vs. Titans:
He and Leon Washington both have 35 touches in two games, which limits Jones’ value significantly. The Titans rank second against the run, are giving up only 1.9 yards per carry and have yet to yield a touchdown on the ground.

-- Joseph Addai, RB, Colts, at Cardinals: This former first-round fantasy pick has only 116 total yards in two games and is being outplayed by rookie Donald Brown. The Cardinals have been surprisingly effective at stopping the run (No. 5 with 113 yards; Arizona is allowing only 2.5 yards per carry).

-- Lee Evans, WR, Bills, vs. Saints: New Orleans is very generous to opposing passing games, but with T.O. in the fold, Evans (four receptions for 57 yards) is no longer a fantasy starter.

More matchups I don’t like:


Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, at Patriots; Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals, vs. Steelers; Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs, at Eagles; Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks, vs. Bears

Last week

The start list had three productive players -- Fred Jackson (163 yards rushing, six catches for 25 yards), Ben Roethlisberger (221 yards passing, one TD, one interception, one rushing TD) and Brett Favre (155 yards passing, two touchdowns and no interceptions) -- and two duds. Nate Burleson (46 yards receiving) and Isaac Bruce (35) both had four catches and no scores.

On the sit list, Kevin Smith (83 yards rushing, two catches for 10 yards, no TDs) was a good call, but Matt Schaub (357 yards and four touchdown passes) and Jay Cutler (236 yards and two TD passes) certainly were not.

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS

1. Drew Brees, Saints, at Bills (No. 31 vs. the pass)

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

3. Peyton Manning, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

4. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 23)

5. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Falcons (No. 17)

6. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

7. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 26)

8. Jay Cutler, Bears, at Seahawks (No. 2)

9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

10. Eli Manning, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

11. Trent Edwards, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 29)

12. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 3)

13. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 7)

14. Matt Ryan, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 6)

15. Kevin Kolb, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 14)

16. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 19)

17. David Garrard, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 22)

18. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 20)

19. Matt Cassel, Chiefs, at Eagles (No. 12)

20. Kyle Orton, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 20)

RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 3 vs. the run)

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 32)

3. Matt Forte, Bears, at Seahawks (No. 26)

4. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Jets (No. 6)

5. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Cowboys (No. 23)

6. Michael Turner, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 14)

7. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

8. Steven Jackson, Rams, vs. Packers (No. 18)

9. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Vikings (No. 15)

10. Steve Slaton, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 13)

11. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

12. Darren Sproles, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 7)

13. Fred Jackson, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 4)

14. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, at Chargers (No. 24)

15. y-Felix Jones, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 27)

16. Willis McGahee, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 31)

17. x-Clinton Portis, Redskins, at Lions (No. 22)

18. z-Brian Westbrook, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 21)

19. Pierre Thomas, Saints, at Bills (No. 8)

20. Kevin Smith, Lions, vs. Redskins (No. 17)

21. Darren McFadden, Raiders, vs. Broncos (No. 10)

22. Tim Hightower, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 30)

23. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers, vs. Giants (No. 27)

24. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 8)

x-This is assuming Marion Barber sits with a quad injury. If Barber is active, he is a decent play against the Panthers. y-Portis missed practice Friday because of an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. He is expected to play, but if he doesn't, backup Ladell Betts is a decent start against the Lions. z-Make sure Westbrook (ankle injury) is active. If he is out, rookie LeSean McCoy is a good start.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 26 vs. the pass)

2. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Falcons (No. 17)

3. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

4. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

5. Marques Colston, Saints, at Bills (No. 31)

6. Reggie Wayne, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

7. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 23)

8. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Cowboys (No. 3)

9. Steve Smith, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

10. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

11. Roddy White, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 6)

12. Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Redskins (No. 10)

13. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

14. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

15. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

16. x-Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Falcons

17. Terrell Owens, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 29)

18. Chad Ochocino, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 19)

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. Bears (No. 8)

20. Donald Driver, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

21. Eddie Royal, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 10)

22. Braylon Edwards, Browns, at Ravens (No. 28)

23. Devery Henderson, Saints, at Bills (No. 31)

24. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 7)

25. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 10)

26. y-Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, at Eagles (No. 12)

27. Roy Williams, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 30)

28. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, vs. Titans (No. 32)

29. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins, at Chargers (No. 13)

30. z-DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 14)

31. Santana Moss, Redskins, at Lions (No. 24)

32. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 20)

33. Laurent Robinson, Rams, vs Packers (No. 15)

34. Torry Holt, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 22)

35. Justin Gage, Titans, at Jets (No. 9)

36. Pierre Garcon, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

x-Make sure Welker (knee) is active; y-Same goes for Bowe, who is questionable because of a hamstring injury; z-Jackson (groin injury) is probable.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: For my breakdown of struggling early draft picks Matt Forte, Steve Slaton and Steven Jackson, including our weekly audiocast, click here. ... We will have another live chat with readers on Thursday at 7 p.m. Go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the live fantasy football chat at the top of the page.

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