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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's games

A quick note before we get to the goodies: Click here for today's analysis of Vincent Jackson's fantasy value, along with items on Keiland Williams and Blair White, and a few quick hitters for today's games.

PATRIOTS AT LIONS

Start 'em


Patriots: QB Tom Brady, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Wes Welker, WR Deion Branch

Lions: QB Shaun Hill, WR Calvin Johnson, WR Nate Burleson, TE Brandon Pettigrew

Sit 'em

Patriots:
RB Danny Woodhead, TE Aaron Hernandez, TE Rob Gronkowski, defense and special teams, K Shayne Graham

Lions: RB Jahvid Best, RB Maurice Morris, TE Tony Scheffler, defense and special teams, K Dave Rayner

SAINTS AT COWBOYS

Start 'em

Saints:
QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, WR Lance Moore, defense and special teams, K Garrett Hartley

Cowboys: WR Miles Austin, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten

Sit 'em

Saints:
RB Chris Ivory, RB Reggie Bush, WR Robert Meachem, TE Jeremy Shockey

Cowboys: QB Jon Kitna, RB Felix Jones, RB Marion Barber, RB Tashard Choice, WR Roy Williams, defense and special teams, K David Buehler

BENGALS AT JETS

Start 'em

Bengals:
RB Cedric Benson, WR Terrell Owens, WR Chad Ochocinco

Jets: QB Mark Sanchez, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Braylon Edwards, WR Santonio Holmes, defense and special teams, K Nick Folk

Sit 'em

Bengals:
QB Carson Palmer, WR Jordan Shipley, TE Jermaine Gresham, defense and special teams, K Mike Nugent

Jets: RB Shonn Greene, TE Dustin Keller

QUICK SLANTS

-- As I wrote in the column that was linked to at the top, the Lions' Best isn't a good play after a game in which he had all of five touches. Teammate Maurice Morris had 14 touches in Week 11, and Best is bothered by a toe injury.

-- The Patriots' Woodhead is an OK play if you really need help at running back, but he shouldn't be considered a No. 2 back in 10- and 12-team leagues. The Lions rank 26th against the run and have allowed 11 TDs on the ground.

-- Reggie Bush is expected to play for the first time since Week 2, but at this point, he is at best a low-end flex play in point-per-reception leagues. Pierre Thomas has been ruled out for the Saints and Chris Ivory is coming off his best game since Week 6, but he and Bush are risky plays.

-- The Cowboys' Felix Jones could sit because of a hip injury. If that's the case, Tashard Choice is an intriguing option in PPR leagues because of his receiving ability. And it doesn't hurt that Marion Barber has been so bad (294 yards, 3.2 per carry) that the Cowboys might be anxious to give someone else a chance.

-- The Jets' Sanchez is an intriguing option after throwing for a combined 614 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games.

-- The rankings for the defenses: Patriots, No. 17 vs. run, No. 31 vs. pass, No. 30 overall, No. 23 in points allowed per game (24.2); Lions, No. 26 vs. run, tied for 13th vs. pass, No. 19 overall, No. 22 in points (23.7); Saints, tied for 13th vs. run, No. 2 vs. pass, No. 4 overall, No. 4 in points (17); Cowboys, No. 22 vs. run, tied for 21st vs. pass, No. 22 overall, No. 28 in points (27.1); Bengals, No. 23 vs. run, No. 18 vs. pass, No. 18 overall, No. 26 in points (26.2); Jets, No. 5 vs. run, No. 16 vs. pass, No. 7 overall, No. 5 in points (17.7).

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Friday, October 29, 2010

Fantasy football: Week 8 injury updates

Before we get to the biggest ailments at running back, wide receiver and tight end, a quick bit of self-promotion.

In today's News-Herald, we broke down the current NFL quarterback landscape from a fantasy perspective. Here is the link.

On to the updates, which don't include Tony Romo, but do feature two guys named Pierre.

-- Colts running back Joseph Addai is doubtful because of a neck injury, leaving Donald Brown and Mike Hart to share the carries. If Brown, who has been limited because of a hamstring injury, is active (and he is expected to be), he is the better play. Hart, however, is the safest play because of Brown's iffy status and the fact the former Michigan standout has 22 carries for 93 yards and a TD in his last two games.

The Colts don't play until Monday night, which complicates things. Their opponent, the Texans, have allowed six rushing touchdowns in as many games.

-- Rams running back Steven Jackson was limited at practice Friday because of a finger injury. He expects to play against the Panthers, maybe because he knows they are allowing 128.5 rushing yards per game. If Jackson is active (the Rams play at 1 p.m. Sunday, so time isn't an issue), he's a must-start.

-- The news isn't as positive regarding Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams, who is doubtful with a foot injury. Jonathan Stewart owners should hope Williams sits, since Stewart would finally get the majority of the carries. If Williams is out, Stewart should be a considered a No. 2 fantasy back.

-- Saints running back Pierre Thomas will sit again because of ankle injury, but impressive rookie Chris Ivory will have the unfortunate task of trying to pile up yards on the Steelers. Pittsburgh is the league's best run defense, allowing 63.7 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. Ivory is better suited to be a flex play, but since six teams are off this weekend, you might be forced to play him as your No. 2 back. If you have two decent options at running back and three effective receivers who aren't on a bye, I'd sit Ivory.

-- Colts receiver Austin Collie is out, as expected, making Pierre Garcon a must-play against Houston, which is allowing a league-high 306 passing yards per game. If you're desperate for receiving help, consider Indy's Anthony Gonzalez, who is slated to play for the first time since Week 1 and should benefit from a Colts offense that will be without Collie and tight end Dallas Clark. Gonzalez is available in more than 96 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com.

-- With both Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee doubtful for the Chargers because of hamstring injuries, Patrick Crayton again is worth starting. The former Cowboy has 13 receptions for 199 yards the last two weeks.

-- Patriots receiver Deion Branch is questionable with a hamstring injury. Since the Pats play the Vikings at 4:15 Sunday, he's probably not worth the risk.

-- Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston (knee) is expected to play for the first time since Week 3. I'd wait a week to see how Breaston performs, but Larry Fitgerald owners should be encouraged.

-- Tight ends Antonio Gates (toe) of the Chargers, Zach Miller (foot) of the Raiders and Chris Cooley (foot) of the Redskins are all questionable, but are in line to start.

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Thursday, October 14, 2010

Fantasy football: Week 6 injury updates

Kevin Kolb was impressive in place of Michael Vick last Sunday night, completing 21 of 31 passes for 253 yards and one touchdown in a 27-24 win at San Francisco.

Vick hasn't been ruled out this week, but it seems likely he'll sit for another game because of a rib injury. If that's the case, I'd consider Kolb a starter only in 14-team leagues.

The Falcons, Philly's opponent Sunday, have twice as many interceptions (10) as touchdown passes allowed (five) this season.

Let's take a quick look at some more notable injury predicaments owners are facing this weekend:

-- Raiders running back Darren McFadden is expected to return this week from a hamstring injury, but will be in a limited role. Sunday's opponent, the 49ers, haven't been great against the run -- San Francisco ranks 18th at 111.4 rushing yards allowed per game. McFadden had 392 rushing yards, 16 receptions for 162 yards and two total TDs in Oakland's first four games, but I wouldn't play him this week.

Michael Bush rushed for 104 yards and a TD on 26 carries in McFadden's absence last week, and he caught three passes for 31 yards. He is the better play of the two this week, but should still be considered a flex option at best.

-- Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno hasn't played the last three weeks because of a hamstring injury, and he doesn't seem likely to play Sunday. Until he returns, there isn't a Denver back worth starting. Correll Buckhalter has rushed for 62 yards on 32 carries (1.9 average) this season, and Laurence Maroney continues to disappoint (29 carries for 56 yards, 1.9 average in three games since he was acquired from the Patriots).

-- Saints running back Pierre Thomas likely will sit for the third consecutive game because of an ankle injury, again leaving the rushing chores to Chris Ivory and Ladell Betts. If you have to play one -- and it's better if you don't, obviously -- Betts is the more productive option because of his receiving ability. Ivory has rushed for 106 yards on 22 carries the last two weeks, and Betts has 23 carries for 91 yards and nine catches for 49 yards in that span. Neither has scored a touchdown this season.

-- The news is more favorable for the Colts' top rusher, Joseph Addai. He was limited in practice by a neck injury Wednesday and sat Thursday, but he said he expects to play Sunday night at Washington. The 8:30 start complicates the situation, but the Redskins are a decent matchup for opposing running backs (Washington ranks 19th against the run). If you have Addai and an available roster spot, pick up Mike Hart (who is available in more than 98 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com) as a backup plan in case Addai is inactive Sunday night. Backup Donald Brown has been hampered by a hamstring injury, and Hart had 11 carries for 50 yards and a TD last week.

-- Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is expected to return from a concussion Sunday. He was awful in Week 4 before he was knocked out of the game by the Giants, but he threw for 870 yards and six touchdowns in Chicago's first three contests. I'd start him at home against the Seahawks, who rank 31st vs. the pass and are allowing 302 passing yards per game.

-- Lions receiver Calvin Johnson probably will be a game-time decision because of a shoulder injury. Detroit plays at 1 p.m. Sunday, so it's an easy fix if he's deactivated an hour before the game. I would recommend teammate Nate Burleson as a replacement, but he, too, is hindered by an injury. Burleson has been a limited participant in practice the last two days because of an ankle injury.

-- Peyton Hillis has been surprisingly prolific in his first five games with the Browns, but the combination of a leg injury and Sunday's matchup at Pittsburgh should put him on your bench this week. The Steelers' opponents have rushed 95 times for 249 yards (a 2.6 average) this season. Pittsburgh ranks No. 1 against the run.

-- On a non-injury note, the only winner, if there is such a thing in this case, in the Jerome Harrison-Mike Bell trade between the Browns and Eagles is Bell. Harrison might be the better player, but the reason Bell has done nothing this season is LeSean McCoy (365 yards rushing, five TDs, 28 receptions for 218 yards) has been the No. 1 running back in many PPR formats. Harrison likely will only be a factor if McCoy has a setback with his rib injury.

Bell was effective at times in 2006 with the Broncos (677 yards, eight TDs) and 2009 with the Saints (654 yards, five TDs). He figures to get more chances this season than Harrison.

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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Fantasy football: Steven Jackson update and more injuries

Steven Jackson has missed practice this week with a groin injury.

Those surprised, raise your hand. If you selected Jackson among the top four picks, scared off by Maurice Jones-Drew's preseason injury or Ray Rice's ability to sustain his production, you might be pounding your head on your desk or repeatedly yelling "Frank Gore!" instead of raising said your arm.

"The leg's still tight, the groin's still tight, so it's just one of those injuries where just time is what's really going to heal the injury," Jackson told reporters Thursday.

Just a guess: He's not playing this week.

Jackson missed four games in both 2007 and '08, and in the 42 games he's played since 2007, he has a mediocre total of 19 touchdowns.

Sunday's opponent, the Seahawks, rank fifth against the run and are allowing only 2.6 yards per carry.

If Jackson is active, you have to play him. If he's out, backup Kenneth Darby -- who had 14 carries for 49 yards and one TD last week -- should get most of the work, since No. 3 back Keith Toston is also nicked up.

If Jackson is inactive, Darby is a decent flex play in PPR formats. He had a combined 37 receptions in 2008 and '09.

Jackson might be resting up for Oct. 10. In Week 5, the Rams will play at Detroit, the league's worst run defense.

Let's look at four more running backs who have had injury issues (note: We'll address Ray Rice's knee bruise in a column for Friday's print and online editions):

-- Chargers rookie Ryan Mathews returned to practice after sitting last week because of an ankle injury. If he plays Sunday against Arizona, as he should, he should be in your lineup. The Cardinals rank 31st against the run and are allowing 146.3 yards rushing per game.

-- Clinton Portis, who shared carries with Ryan Torain last week because the former has a wrist ailment, seems to be a go for Week 4. Sunday's opponent, the Eagles, have struggled against the run (No. 23, 128.7 yards per game, three touchdowns). Portis is a low-level No. 2 back at best, though, after rushing for all of 634 yards in 11 games since the start of last season.

-- The Broncos haven't ruled Knowshon Moreno out, but he isn't practicing because of a hamstring injury and seems certain to miss Sunday's game at Tennessee. If Moreno is out, Laurence Maroney is a better play than Correll Buckhalter, but neither is a top-25 back this week.

-- Just when it seemed Pierre Thomas had the Saints' rushing workload to himself, he injured his ankle last week and will be a game-time decision Sunday against Carolina. If Thomas sits, rookie Chris Ivory, who had seven carries for 13 yards last week, is a flex play vs. the Panthers (No. 14 vs. the run).

Stat of the week

8.5: Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles' average yards per touch this season. He has 34 carries for 238 yards and one touchdown, and five catches for 92 yards. Meanwhile, starter Thomas Jones, who has 18 more carries than Charles, is averaging 4.1 yards on 54 touches.

The Chiefs are 3-0, so obviously it's working. But the fantasy geek in many of us wonders if Todd Haley and Charlie Weis have forgotten that Charles held up just fine with an increased amount of touches in the second half of 2009.

Programming note: Check back late Thursday night or Friday morning for a column in the N-H's online Sports section that will break down five of the most disappointing players from a fantasy perspective in the first three weeks.

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Fantasy football: Shonn Greene's declining value and more running back analysis

I assumed Shonn Greene -- with or without LaDainian Tomlinson in green and white -- would be a top-12 running back this season.

You might have, too.

After Monday night, when Greene had five carries for 18 yards and fumbled twice on six touches, we're left to wonder how much of an impact Tomlinson's signing might have on Greene, who caught our attention by rushing for 304 yards and averaging 5.6 yards per carry in the Jets' three playoff games last season.

Tomlinson, in the first game of his post-Chargers career, had 78 yards on 13 touches, looking surprisingly spry against the Ravens' stingy defense.

This week, the Jets will play host to the Patriots, who ranked 13th against the run and allowed only six rushing TDs last season.

You never want to overreact because of one game, but I wouldn't play Greene or L.T. against the Pats.

Around the league

Let's take a quick look at some of the more muddled backfields from a fantasy perspective:

-- Buffalo: C.J. Spiller was a preseason darling, and he might be a future stud, but right now, this looks like a mess. Spiller had 11 touches for 12 yards last week, and Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch will get work. Together, the three combined for 46 total yards on 22 touches. I'd sit Spiller against Green Bay. The other two shouldn't be starting options unless an injury or poor play knocks someone out of the equation.

-- Carolina: DeAngelo Williams had 16 carries to Jonathan Stewart's five in Week 1. I wouldn't read too much into that yet. Stewart should be a flex option Sunday vs. the Buccaneers.

-- Chicago: Is Matt Forte back? We can only hope. Almost as encouraging as the second-year running back's receiving stats last week was the fact he received 24 touches to Chester Taylor's 12.

-- Cleveland: For now, it's a tandem. But I'd expect Eric Mangini to wise up and give up Jerome Harrison, not Peyton Hillis, the lion's share of the load.

-- Dallas: More sharing, more frustration. Marion Barber and Felix Jones each had 10 touches last week, and Tashard Choice seven. Long term, Jones should be the best play, but Barber is the most enticing starting option Sunday at home against the Bears.

-- Denver: It's Knowshon Moreno's show for now, but you have to wonder if the Broncos' trade for Laurence Maroney will mean another dreaded tandem in a few weeks.

-- Indianapolis: Good news, Joseph Addai owners. Your back received 10 carries, and Donald Brown's only touch was a reception.

-- Miami: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are sharing, as expected, but both are useful, especially Brown, at least until he gets hurt.

-- New Orleans: With Mike Bell in Philadelphia, Pierre Thomas (71 rushing yards, one TD, three receptions for 15 yards in Week 1) is an every-week starter. Reggie Bush is a flex play, at best, in deep PPR leagues.

-- New England: Fred Taylor, at age 34 (94 in running back years), had 71 yards on 14 carries last week. With Maroney gone, he seems to be the best option, but he should be a flex play only in 12-team or deeper leagues most weeks. I wouldn't play him Sunday at the Jets.

-- New York Giants: There seems to be a changing of the guard, from Brandon Jacobs (12 carries for 44 yards last week) to the electric Ahmad Bradshaw (76 yards rushing, one TD, two catches for 17 yards in Week 1). Bradshaw is a decent play Sunday night at Indy. Jacobs is not.

-- Oakland: Darren McFadden had a huge game (150 total yards, six receptions, one TD), but most of the points he accumulated were in garbage time against the Pats. Also keep in mind that McFadden posted those numbers with Michael Bush out. The latter is expected to return this week. McFadden is still a decent option this week against the Rams, who ranked 27th against the run and gave up 24 rushing TDs in 2009.

-- Seattle: Another mess. Justin Forsett was productive (6 yards per touch), but received only seven carries -- to eight by Julius Jones and six by Leon Washington. Sit 'em all.

-- Tampa Bay: It's Cadillac Williams' show, until he joins Ronnie Brown on injured reserve.

Quick slants

-- It's much too soon to trust Derek Anderson (297 yards, one TD last week), but he has the weapons. I'm tempted, but have seen too many bad Browns games to make the move.

-- Anquan Boldin has relegated Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to bench spots. Boldin had seven catches for 110 yards last week, compared to Mason's two for 21 and Houshmandzadeh's one for 27. I still believe in Mason, but wouldn't play him until the schedule softens.

-- I believe in Legedu Naanee. And you should, too.

-- I don't believe in any Jets receiver (or tight end Dustin Keller) until Santonio Holmes returns from his four-game suspension, and even then it will be difficult to play the former Buckeye with Mark Sanchez throwing to him (or trying futilely to do so). Not counting the playoffs, Sanchez hasn't thrown for 250 yards or two touchdowns since he did both in Week 8 of 2009.

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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Fantasy football: Playoff pools, top RBs

Fifteen players rushed for 1,000 yards this season -- tying the 2001 campaign for the lowest number of four-figure rushers since 1999.

Of the 15, only five made the postseason (think the game has changed?), which makes choosing the top backs for playoff pools difficult, especially considering four of the five play for teams seeded fourth or lower (Thomas Jones, Ray Rice, Ryan Grant and Cedric Benson) -- making them a risk to be one-and-done.

Before we get to the rankings, here is a link for the top quarterbacks, posted Monday.

RUNNING BACKS


10. Marion Barber, Cowboys: He ran for 932 yards and seven TDs, but didn't score in two games against the Eagles (Dallas' opponent Saturday night) and was outplayed by Felix Jones down the stretch.

9. Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Prior to resting for much of last week's loss to the Packers, the rookie from Ohio State had a three-game stretch in which he tallied 319 total yards and three touchdowns.

8. Cedric Benson, Bengals: He has 1,362 total yards in 13 games, and he has a decent chance to play twice.

7. Thomas Jones, Jets: Between Benson and Jones, one will play in Round 2, and if it's the latter, he could be a threat to have a big game against the Colts. Jones finished third in the NFL with 1,402 yards rushing and had 14 TDs.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens: With 1,339 rushing yards, 78 receptions and 2,041 total yards, he has the best stats of any postseason back who doesn't go by All Day, but the Ravens will be lucky to play more than once in the playoffs. Rice, who has eight TDs, frequently loses goal-line carries to Willis McGahee.

5. Ryan Grant, Packers: He was a disappointment to many fantasy owners until the final four weeks, when he accounted for six of his 11 TDs. Grant was seventh in the league with 1,253 rushing yards.

4. Pierre Thomas, Saints: He failed to top 800 yards on the ground and barely broke a sweat as the Saints went into cruise control the last three games (12 total attempts), but Thomas scored eight times and caught 39 passes. Plus, there's the likelihood he'll play two home games for a team that could advance to the Super Bowl.

3. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers: With 730 yards, L.T. didn't reach 1,000 for the first time in his nine-year career, but he did have 12 touchdowns -- 11 of which occurred in a nine-game stretch that ended in Week 16.

2. Joseph Addai, Colts: His rushing numbers (828 yards, 3.8 per carry) are less impressive than Jerome "Coach Mangini Held Me Back" Harrison, but Addai did have a TD in 11 of 15 games. He also caught 51 passes.

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: His 1,383 rushing yards ranked only fifth, but his 18 TDs on the ground were three more than the next-closest challenger (Maurice Jones-Drew), and Peterson also caught 43 passes (three more than his combined total from his first two seasons).

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

Darren Sproles, Chargers; Reggie Bush, Saints; Felix Jones, Cowboys; LeSean McCoy, Eagles; Mike Bell, Saints; Laurence Maroney, Patriots; Sammy Morris, Patriots; Tim Hightower, Cardinals; Brian Westbrook, Eagles; Donald Brown, Colts; Willis McGahee, Ravens; Shonn Greene, Jets; Fred Taylor, Patriots

Quick slants: Sproles has seven total TDs and 45 catches. ... Good luck finding a consistent back among the Patriots' three-headed monster of confusion. Maroney was the best of the bunch until he was benched after fumbling in Week 16. ... Bush has eight TDs and 47 catches, and Bell has five scores for the Saints, who certainly like to share the wealth. ... The electric Felix Jones has 49 carries for 258 yards (5.3) and nine receptions in his last four games. ... McCoy, after a promising start to his rookie season, had only 32 carries for 109 yards (3.4) in his last five regular-season games. Westbrook returned from a concussion to carry 14 times for 49 yards in the last two weeks. ... McGahee has 14 TDs (12 rushing, two receiving), including five games with two or more scores. ... Greene, a rookie from Iowa, has 29 carries for 157 yards in his last two contests.

WEEKLY SCHEDULE

Monday: Quarterbacks; Today: Running backs; Wednesday: Wide receivers; Thursday: Tight ends, kickers and defenses/special teams.

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Saturday, December 5, 2009

Fantasy football: Injury updates, start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist for Week 13

This week's injury roll call is more extensive -- and slightly more optimistic -- than the list of Eric Mangini complaints in the NFL players' association database.

-- Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return from a concussion to start against the Raiders. Kurt Warner is also expected to start, but the Cardinals QB is a much more questionable play than his Steelers counterpart. Warner split practice reps with Matt Leinart all week and could be a game-time decision, which leaves owners in a quandary because the Cards face the Vikings in the Sunday night game. If you have a productive backup, playing him is the safe route, or you can pick up Leinart and have him as insurance in case Warner is inactive.

-- Falcons QB Matt Ryan is out, as are running backs Clinton Portis (Redskins) and Brian Westbrook (Eagles), along with Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson.

-- At running back, the Bengals' Cedric Benson is expected to return from a hip injury, and backup Bernard Scott is out because of turf toe, which leaves Benson to get the majority of the carries and Larry Johnson available for a handful of opportunities against the woeful Lions.

-- Falcons running back Michael Turner is expected to be a game-time decision, but he's likely to sit Sunday's home game vs. the Eagles. Jason Snelling should start, but the electric Jerious Norwood might be the more effective play -- although neither is better than a No. 3 back against Philly's eighth-ranked run defense.

-- The Panthers' DeAngelo Williams (ankle injury) is also a game-time decision, which could be good news for Jonathan Stewart owners vs. the Bucs (more on that later).

-- The Rams' Steven Jackson missed practice all week because of a back injury, but he did the same the week before, then ran for 89 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. He should start.

-- The Seahawks' Julius Jones will return from a bruised lung, and backup Justin Forsett, who has rushed for 262 yards, scored four TDs and caught 13 passes for 106 yards the last three weeks, is questionable after injuring his quadriceps Friday in practice. Jones should get the majority of the carries but isn't a very good play vs. the 49ers (No. 5 vs. the run).

-- The Texans' Steve Slaton is questionable with a shoulder injury. He, too, will be a game-time decision. If he sits, Chris Brown should start against the Jaguars (No. 10 vs. the run).

-- Falcons wide receiver Roddy White has been limited this week by a knee ailment, but he should play and be considered a No. 2 receiver against Philly.

On to the start-and-sit advice for what likely is the final week of your league's regular season:

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos, at Chiefs: He's been dreadful in the last five games, during which the Broncos are 1-4, throwing three touchdown passes and five interceptions. But here's a gut feeling: That will change as Orton accounts for a couple of touchdowns vs. the Chiefs, who rank 30th defending the pass.

-- Matt Forte, RB, Bears, vs. Rams:
He's been one of the season's biggest busts (nice to have you aboard, Jay Cutler). Forte has rushed for only 135 yards and has been a much more productive receiver (22 catches for 248 yards) in his last four games, a span in which he has zero TDs. Forte should end that run of futility vs. the Rams, who rank 28th vs. the run and have given up 16 rushing touchdowns.

-- Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints, at Redskins: With 11 rushing attempts in each of the last three games, this is another hunch play. Thomas has been very effective when he's gotten the chance (5.6 yards per carry and seven touchdowns on 136 touches this season). He should reach the end zone against the Redskins (No. 25 vs. the run).

-- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers, vs. Buccaneers: Whether Williams sits or not (although I'm guessing he will), Stewart should be a quality play vs. the Bucs, against whom he rushed for 110 yards and a TD in Week 6. Tampa ranks 30th stopping (not stopping?) the run and has allowed 12 rushing TDs.

-- Jason Avant, WR, Eagles, at Falcons: He has 17 catches for 276 yards and a TD in his last three games, and his role should expand with DeSean Jackson out. The Falcons rank 27th vs. the pass.

More matchups I like:


Jay Cutler, QB, Bears, vs. Rams; Cadillac Williams, RB, Buccaneers, at Panthers; Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos, at Chiefs; Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice, WRs, Vikings, at Cardinals; Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts, vs. Titans; Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers, at Seahawks

Three to sit


If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys, at Giants:
Two reasons: 1. It's December (let's just say it's not a good month for Romo). 2. Romo threw for 127 yards, one TD and three picks in Week 2 against the Giants. I know New York is a different team now, but it's a must-win for the hosts, and Romo never seems to play well in these moments.

-- Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, RBs, Cardinals, vs. Vikings: One week, Wells is productive (the rookie had three touchdowns in a two-game span prior to his dud of a Week 12). The next, it's Hightower, who scored his first TD in four games last week. The latter has been bothered by a thumb injury, and the Vikings are always strong against the run (No. 2, only three rushing TDs allowed).

More matchups I don’t like:

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions, at Bengals; Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants, vs. Cowboys

Last week


The start list had a pair of hits in LaDainian Tomlinson (39 yards rushing, two TDs) and Jamaal Charles (93 yards rushing, one TD, three catches for 54 yards). Carson Palmer threw for 110 yards and a TD (not as well as we expected vs. the Browns), Marion Barber (61 yards rushing, two catches for 41 yards) was effective in limited opportunites (but still not a productive fantasy play), and Michael Crabtree (four catches for 54 yards) was a dud.

The sit list was right on Brandon Jacobs (27 yards rushing, three catches for 30 yards), correct on Steve Slaton in non-PPR formats (57 yards rushing, four catches for 49 yards) and way off on Knowshon Moreno (88 yards rushing, one TD, two catches for 19 yards).

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. Titans (No. 31 vs. the pass)
2. Tom Brady, Patriots, at Dolphins (No. 23)
3. Philip Rivers, Chargers, at Browns (No. 24)
4. Drew Brees, Saints, at Redskins (No. 1)
5. Brett Favre, Vikings, at Cardinals (No. 29)
6. Matt Schaub, Texans, at Jaguars (No. 26)
7. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, at Falcons (No. 27)
8. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, vs. Ravens (No. 12)
9. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Lions (No. 32)
10. x-Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, vs. Raiders (No. 17)
11. Kyle Orton, Broncos, at Chiefs (No. 30)
12. x-Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. Vikings (No. 19)
13. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Rams (No. 22)
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, vs. 49ers (No. 28)
15. Tony Romo, Cowboys, at Giants (No. 4)
16. Alex Smith, 49ers, at Seahawks (No. 25)
17. Eli Manning, Giants, vs. Cowboys (No. 21)
18. Joe Flacco, Ravens, at Packers (No. 6)
19. David Garrard, Jaguars, vs. Texans (tied for No. 14)
20. Vince Young, Titans, at Colts (No. 20)
x-Make sure Warner and Roethlisberger aren’t last-minute scratches.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, vs. Texans (No. 22 vs. the run)
2. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Colts (No. 15)
3. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, at Cardinals (No. 14)
4. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, vs. Raiders (No. 31)
5. x-Steven Jackson, Rams, at Bears (No. 24)
6. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Seahawks (No. 18)
7. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Lions (No. 19)
8. Ray Rice, Ravens, at Packers (No. 4)
9. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Browns (No. 29)
10. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, vs. Buccaneers (No. 30)
11. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Titans (No. 7)
12. Ricky Williams, Dolphins, vs. Patriots (No. 16)
13. Matt Forte, Bears, vs. Rams (No. 28)
14. LeSean McCoy, Eagles, at Falcons (No. 23)
15. Laurence Maroney, Patriots, at Dolphins (No. 12)
16. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, at Chiefs (No. 27)
17. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, vs. Broncos (No. 17)
18. Ryan Grant, Packers, vs. Ravens (No. 6)
19. Pierre Thomas, Saints, at Redskins (No. 25)
20. Marion Barber, Cowboys, at Giants (No. 11)
21. Jerious Norwood, Falcons, vs. Eagles (No. 8)
22. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers, at Panthers (No. 26)
23. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, vs. Cowboys (No. 9)
24. Rock Cartwright, Redskins, vs. Saints (No. 20)
x-Make sure Jackson (back injury) is active.

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Randy Moss, Patriots, at Dolphins (No. 23 vs. the pass)
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. Titans (No. 31)
3. Andre Johnson, Texans, at Jaguars (No. 26)
4. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, vs. Lions (No. 32)
5. Wes Welker, Patriots, at Dolphins (No. 23)
6. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Chiefs (No. 30)
7. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. Vikings (No. 19)
8. Marques Colston, Saints, at Redskins (No. 1)
9. Hines Ward, Steelers, vs. Raiders (No. 17)
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Browns (No. 24)
11. Donald Driver, Packers, vs. Ravens (No. 12)
12. Jason Avant, Eagles, at Falcons (No. 27)
13. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, vs. Texans (tied for No. 14)
14. Calvin Johnson, Lions, at Bengals (No. 16)
15. Percy Harvin, Vikings, at Cardinals (No. 29)
16. Steve Smith, Giants, vs. Cowboys (No. 21)
17. x-Roddy White, Falcons, vs. Eagles (No. 9)
18. Miles Austin, Cowboys, at Giants (No. 4)
19. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. Vikings (No. 19)
20. Steve Smith, Panthers, vs. Buccaneers (No. 11)
21. Derrick Mason, Ravens, at Packers
22. Sidney Rice, Vikings, at Cardinals (No. 29)
23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. 49ers (No. 28)
24. Greg Jennings, Packers, vs. Ravens (No. 12)
25. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, vs. 49ers (No. 28)
26. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, vs. Raiders (No. 17)
27. Chris Chambers, Chiefs, vs. Broncos (No. 5)
28. Pierre Garcon, Colts, vs. Titans (No. 31)
29. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, at Seahawks (No. 25)
30. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles, at Falcons (No. 27)
31. Devin Hester, Bears, vs. Rams (No. 22)
32. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers, at Panthers (No. 3)
33. Mario Manningham, Giants, vs. Cowboys (No. 21)
34. Donnie Avery, Rams, at Bears (tied for No. 14)
35. Kenny Britt, Titans, at Colts (No. 20)
36. Santana Moss, Redskins, vs. Saints (No. 18)
x-Make sure White (knee injury) is active.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL:
In this week’s column, we break down five things to watch, along with five waiver-wire acquisitions, heading into the final week of the regular season in fantasy. The link also includes this week’s audiocast with Kleps and Sports Editor Mark Podolski.

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Thursday, November 26, 2009

Fantasy football: More dos and don'ts, injury updates, start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist for Week 12

In this week’s column, I break down the must-starts and dos and don’ts for the remainder of the season.

Let’s get to a few leftovers, which only seems fitting on this day, before the usual injury updates:

DO ...


-- Consider starting both Cardinals running backs — Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower — when the matchup is right (i.e., Weeks 15 and 16, when Arizona plays at Detroit and hosts St. Louis).

In the last two games, Wells has rushed 30 times for 159 yards (5.3-yard average) and three touchdowns, and caught four passes for 43 yards. In that span, Hightower has 24 carries for 147 yards (6.1 average) and seven catches for 36 yards. For the season, the latter has 47 receptions and five rushing TDs.

Of the two, Wells is the better play, but Hightower is still an effective flex start or lower-echelon No. 2 running back in point-per-reception leagues.

-- Consider Davone Bess as a No. 3 receiver in PPR leagues. The Dolphins’ top receiver has 20 catches in his last four games and 16 in his last three. I would only play him when the matchup is favorable, which is especially true in Weeks 14 at Jacksonville (No. 25 vs. the pass) and 15 at Tennessee (No. 31).

DON’T ...

-- Trust the Saints’ running backs unless the matchup is favorable. Pierre Thomas is the best in terms of yardage, Mike Bell has a tendency to steal the goal-line carries and Reggie Bush had five TDs in his last five games prior to sitting out last week and, when healthy, is the best receiver of the three.

Thomas is still the best fantasy option, but if you have two productive running backs, consider both Thomas and Bell flex plays on a week-to-week basis.

-- Get too excited over Terrell Owens’ huge Week 11, when the Bills receiver had nine catches for 197 yards, including a 98-yard TD, against the Jaguars. Prior to last week, Owens hadn’t scored since Week 2 and he had only 26 catches for 366 yards in nine games. He’s still a No. 3 receiver with whom you should play the matchup game. Owens is a decent play this week against the Dolphins, who rank 22nd against the pass.

Injury updates

-- Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisbeger — who suffered head injuries last week — are both expected to start. The Cardinals’ Warner has the much more favorable matchup of the two — a game at Tennessee, which ranks 31st against the pass and has given up 25 touchdown tosses. Roethlisberger and the Steelers play at the Ravens, who rank 17th vs. the pass but have as many interceptions (11) as touchdown passes allowed. Play both if they’re active, although Roethlsiberger isn’t a top-10 start this week.

-- Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo will play today after being bothered by a back injury. The Raiders have been stingy against the pass — No. 12 in yardage and only eight TD passes allowed — but I would still start Romo.

-- Bengals running back Cedric Benson (hip injury) practiced Wednesday and is expected to play. He is listed as questionable, but if he practices again Friday (the critical day from an injury standpoint for most players), you should feel safe in keeping him in your lineup. If he’s a late scratch, backup Bernard Scott is a very good start against the Browns and their 28th-ranked run defense.

-- Falcons running back Michael Turner, who missed last week’s game because of a high ankle sprain, also practiced Wednesday and hopes to play, but he sounds more iffy than Benson. If Turner plays, start him against the Bucs, the league’s worst run defense. If he doesn’t, backup Jason Snelling is worth a spot in your lineup.

-- Seahawks running back Julius Jones has missed practice with a bruised lung, but is expected to start Sunday. If he’s active, he’s a quality option as a flex play against the Rams (No. 28 vs. the run). The same goes for backup Justin Forsett should Jones sit for a second consecutive game.

-- Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, who is nursing hand and knee injuries, will be a game-time decision for today’s Thanksgiving tilt against the Packers. His value is also hurt by Daunte Culpepper’s presence at quarterback in place of the injured Matthew Stafford. If Johnson is active, play him. If he isn’t, don’t look at teammates Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt for help.

-- Running backs Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook are still out because of concussions, leaving the starting jobs for the Redskins and Eagles to Rock Cartwright and LeSean McCoy, respectively. McCoy is a top-10 start at his position this week, and Cartwright should be considered no better than a flex play at the Eagles (No. 10 vs. the run).

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals, vs. Browns:
He has only 385 yards passing and zero touchdowns in his last two games, but he threw for 230 yards and two scores in the Bengals’ Week 4 win at Cleveland. I would expect similar numbers Sunday against the Browns’ No. 26 pass defense.

-- LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers, vs. Chiefs: He’s been disappointing, but there are signs of life — five TDs in his last four games and 169 rushing yards in his last two. The Chiefs rank 27th vs. the run.

-- Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys, vs. Raiders:
The former fantasy stud ran for 99 yards last week, his second-highest total of the season and the most he’s had since Week 2. Barber should reach the century mark vs. the Raiders, who rank 30th vs. the run and have given up 11 rushing TDs.

-- Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs, at Chargers: He has scored in each of his last two games, a span in which Larry Johnson’s replacement has 183 total yards and six catches. The Chargers have struggled against the run (No. 21).

-- Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers, vs. Jaguars: The rookie had his best fantasy game as a pro last week, catching four passes for 77 yards and a TD. Make it two straight games with a score, as the Jags rank 25th against the pass and have allowed 17 touchdowns through the air.

More matchups I like:

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys, vs. Raiders; Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers; Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks, at Rams; David Garrard, QB, Jaguars, at 49ers; Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots, at Saints; Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WRs, Seahawks, at Rams; Terrell Owens, WR, Bills, vs. Dolphins; Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts, at Texans; Michael Jenkins, WR, Falcons, at Buccaneers

Three to sit


If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants, at Broncos:
He has yet to rush for 100 yards this season and has only three touchdowns, which should give him a seat on your bench unless you’re hurting for a second running back.

-- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos, vs. Giants: He’s rushed for 177 yards on only 28 carries the last two weeks (6.3-yard average), but he hasn’t scored in his last three contests and the Giants rank 11th vs. the run (one caveat: The G-Men have allowed 14 rushing TDs).

-- Steve Slaton, RB, Texans, vs. Colts: Chris Brown is the latest back to share carries with Slaton (it was fun while it lasted, Ryan Moats), but even with the demotion in playing time, Slaton still has four TDs in his last five games and 24 catches in his last six. Regardless, you should have better options than playing the second-year back against the Colts’ No. 13 run defense.

More matchups I don’t like:

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Steelers; Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos, vs. Giants; Rock Cartwright, RB, Redskins, at Eagles; Santana Moss, WR, Redskins, at Eagles

Last week


The start list, for the first time all season, was 5-for-5. Eli Manning (384 yards passing, three touchdowns, one interception), Kevin Smith (45 yards rushing, four receptions for 104 yards and a TD), Bernard Scott (119 yards rushing, three catches for 32 yards), LeSean McCoy (99 yards rushing, one TD) and Beanie Wells (74 yards rushing, one TD, two receptions for 11 yards) all have productive games.

The all-QB sit list was 2-for-3, as Jay Cutler (171 yards passing, one TD, one interception, 11 yards rushing) and Joe Flacco (256 yards passing, zero TDs and one pick) struggled. Benching Matt Ryan (268 yards passing, two touchdowns, 14 yards rushing) was not a good idea.

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Lions (No. 32 vs. the pass)
2. Peyton Manning, Colts, at Texans (No. 15)
3. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Chiefs (No. 28)
4. Drew Brees, Saints, vs. Patriots (No. 6)
5. Tom Brady, Patriots, at Saints (No. 16)
6. x-Kurt Warner, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 31)
7. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Browns (No. 26)
8. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Colts (No. 18)
9. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. Bears (No. 8)
10. Matt Ryan, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers (No. 14)
11. x-Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Ravens (No. 17)
12. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Raiders (No. 12)
13. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, vs. Redskins (No. 1)
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, at Rams (No. 24)
15. Eli Manning, Giants, at Broncos (No. 3)
16. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Vikings (No. 21)
17. David Garrard, Jaguars, at 49ers (No. 30)
18. Matt Cassel, Chiefs, at Chargers (No. 11)
19. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Steelers (No. 13)
20. x-Kyle Orton, Broncos, vs. Giants (No. 2)
x-Make sure Warner, Roethlisberger and Orton (who has a sprained ankle) are active. All are expected to play.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. Bears (No. 23 vs. the run)
2. Ricky Williams, Dolphins, at Bills (No. 31)
3. Joseph Addai, Colts, at Texans (No. 22)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at 49ers (No. 6)
5. Chris Johnson, Titans, vs. Cardinals (No. 8)
6. Steven Jackson, Rams, vs. Seahawks (No. 15)
7. Frank Gore, 49ers, vs. Jaguars (No. 17)
8. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Jets (No. 16)
9. LeSean McCoy, Eagles, vs. Redskins (No. 25)
10. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Lions (No. 20)
11. x-Michael Turner, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers (No. 32)
12. x-Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Browns (No. 29)
13. Ray Rice, Ravens, vs. Steelers (No. 1)
14. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, vs. Chiefs (No. 27)
15. Matt Forte, Bears, at Vikings (No. 3)
16. Marion Barber, Cowboys, vs. Raiders (No. 30)
17. x-Julius Jones, Seahawks, at Rams (No. 24)
18. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, at Ravens (No. 5)
19. Kevin Smith, Lions, vs. Packers (No. 4)
20. Laurence Maroney, Patriots, at Saints (No. 19)
21. Beanie Wells, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 9)
22. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, at Chargers (No. 21)
23. Pierre Thomas, Saints, vs. Patriots (No. 14)
24. Tim Hightower, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 9)
x-Make sure Turner, Benson and Jones are active.

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 31 vs. the pass)
2. Randy Moss, Patriots, at Saints (No. 16)
3. Reggie Wayne, Colts, at Texans (No. 15)
4. Roddy White, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers (No. 14)
5. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, vs. Chiefs (No. 28)
6. Wes Welker, Patriots, at Saints (No. 16)
7. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 31)
8. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Colts (No. 18)
9. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, vs. Browns (No. 26)
10. Donald Driver, Packers, at Lions (No. 32)
11. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, at 49ers (No. 30)
12. x-Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Packers (No. 7)
13. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Redskins (No. 1)
14. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Lions (No. 32)
15. Steve Smith, Giants, at Broncos (No. 3)
16. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, at Rams (No. 24)
17. Marques Colston, Saints, vs. Patriots (No. 6)
18. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, vs. Giants (No. 2)
19. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Jets (No. 4)
20. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Ravens (No. 17)
21. Miles Austin, Cowboys, vs. Raiders (No. 12)
22. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, at Rams (No. 24)
23. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, vs. Jaguars (No. 25)
24. Sidney Rice, Vikings, vs. Bears (No. 8)
25. Terrell Owens, Bills, vs. Dolphins (No. 22)
26. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Ravens (No. 17)
27. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Steelers (No. 13)
28. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Broncos (No. 3)
29. Chris Chambers, Chiefs, at Chargers (No. 11)
30. Devin Hester, Bears, at Vikings (No. 21)
31. Percy Harvin, Vikings, vs. Bears (No. 8)
32. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, vs. Panthers (No. 5)
33. Pierre Garcon, Colts, at Texans (No. 15)
34. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles, vs. Redskins (No. 1)
35. Kevin Walter, Texans, vs. Colts (No. 18)
36. Lee Evans, Bills, vs. Dolphins (No. 22)
x-Make sure Johnson (knee and hand injuries) is active Thursday.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: Who are the must-starts at each position (even kicker)? Kevin Kleps has the answers here. The link also includes this week’s audiocast by Kleps and Sports Editor Mark Podolski.

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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 8

Beanie Wells, like Rashard Mendenhall before him, might be one who got away -- a running back you released because he wasn't producing and you needed the roster space due to bye-week restrictions.

But if you had Week 7 in your When Will A Healthy (For Now) Beanie Show Signs Of Life, Ticking Owner X Off In the Process office pool (what, you don't have one?), you, like the guy who selected Ray Rice in the sixth round, followed by Ben Roethlisberger in the seventh, are a winner.

In his last two games, Wells has 30 touches (26 rushes and four receptions) -- six more than his total for the Cardinals' first four games. The former Buckeye had 14 carries for 67 yards last week -- to starter Tim Hightower's 4-for-9 effort. Coach Ken Whisenhunt said the latter is still his starter, but with a two-year average of 2.9 yards per carry and a season total of 167 yards rushing, you have to figure the job will be Wells' soon.

Wells should be considered a low-end No. 2 running back this week, since six teams are on a bye and the Cardinals will play host to the Panthers, who rank 26th against the run. Even better: Arizona's next five opponents are Carolina, Chicago (No. 18 vs. the run), Seattle (No. 14), St. Louis (No. 27) and Tennessee (No. 9). The five teams have allowed a combined 33 rushing touchdowns in 31 games.

Hightower, who has 31 catches for 239 yards, is only an asset in point-per-reception leagues. Soon, he might not be anything more than a No. 4 fantasy back.

Marching to a familiar beat: Another team with a favorable upcoming schedule and a confusing running-back situation is the undefeated Saints, who are so prolific and so generous the only fantasy givens are quarterback Drew Brees and receiver Marques Colston.

In the last two weeks, running back Mike Bell has 27 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown, including a 12-for-80 effort last week. Pierre Thomas -- who ran for 212 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4, when Bell was out because of a knee injury -- has 23 carries for 102 yards in that two-game span. Then there's Reggie Bush, who no longer gets more than seven or eight touches per contest, but has scored a TD in each of his last two games.

Since the Saints are averaging 427.3 total yards and 39.7 points per game, I'd expect them to stick with what works, which is dividing the majority of the carries between Bell and Thomas, with Bush getting a handful, along with a few catches.

All of which makes Bell and Thomas no better than a No. 3 running back, but the pair will be enticing the next four weeks, when New Orleans faces Atlanta (No. 19 vs. the run), Carolina (No. 26), St. Louis (No. 27) and Tampa Bay (No. 29). Both can be considered low-end No. 2 backs if bye weeks have wreaked their usual havoc on your roster.

LeChange in Philly: Brian Westbrook missed practiced again Thursday, and it seems more and more likely the Eagles running back will sit out Sunday's game against the Giants, who, surprisingly, have allowed more rushing touchdowns (10) than all but the Raiders and Rams this season. If Westbrook sits, rookie LeSean McCoy can be counted on to be a No. 2 back, especially in PPR leagues. When Westbrook missed the Eagles' 34-14 win over the Chiefs in Week 3, McCoy had 20 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown.

Start 'em

-- Sidney Rice, not Bernard Berrian or Percy Harvin, is the Vikings' most productive receiver. He has 33 catches for 545 yards and two TDs in seven games, and 16 catches for 312 yards in his last two. He should now be considered an every-week regular.

-- No longer just a return specialist (sorry, Josh Cribbs), the Bears' Devin Hester has 14 catches for 184 yards and a TD in his last two games. Up this week: the Browns, who rank 28th vs. the pass and No. 32 overall.

Sit 'em

-- Braylon Edwards is back to his old tricks in his new home. Aftter a productive first game with the Jets (a five-catch, 64-yard, one-TD performance at Miami on "Monday Night Football"), the former Browns wideout has four receptions for 54 yards and zero TDs the last two weeks. I can only come up with two reasons to play him this week: the opponent again is Miami, and with six teams off, you probably have to start the butterfingered one.

-- Terrell Owens has been even more quiet on the fantasy front than in the throwing-his-quarterback-under-the-bus department this season. In his first season with the Bills, T.O. has yet to have more than 60 yards receiving in a game, he has one TD all season and none in his last five contests. Has he lost a step? Should he be blasting Ryan Fitzpatrick? Whatever the answer, Owens is a No. 3 receiver only in weeks in which byes are a factor.

Drop 'em

If you need the roster space, it's time to bid adieu to Browns running back Jamal Lewis (zero touchdowns, only one game with more than 57 rushing yards), Jets tight end Dustin Keller (three catches for 42 yards in his last three games), Cowboys running back Tashard Choice (who's not a factor in Dallas' backfield as long as both Marion Barber and Felix Jones are healthy) and Dolphins receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (five catches for 77 yards and a TD in his last four games).

On deck: Saturday, we'll look at the projected impact of a pair of young running backs who will now play prominent roles -- the Jets' Shonn Greene and the Chiefs' Jamaal Charles. The weekly column for the print editions will be posted on the Sports section of the News-Herald's Web site, and the link will also include our weekly audiocast. Saturday, we'll also have the "big blog," with start-and-sit advice, injury updates and an expanded playlist. That will be published in this space and on the N-H's Sports site.

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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 4

Coach Dick Jauron was kind enough to say the Bills would bring running back Marshawn Lynch "along slowly" in the latter's return from a three-game suspension. Translation: Fred Jackson owners, enjoy your last week of freedom.

I would expect Jackson -- who has thrived in Lynch's absence, totaling 425 yards in three games -- to get the majority of the carries Sunday at Miami. In Week 5, it should be more of a 50-50 split, a prospect fantasy owners detest more than playing against Santana Moss during his one huge game a year.

Jackson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and is a No. 2 back in point-per-reception leagues, as his 15 catches trail only Arizona's Tim Hightower among all running backs. I would play him even against the Dolphins, who rank third defending the run, allowing only 66 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

By Week 5, when the Bills face the always accommodating Browns defense, Lynch -- a 2007 first-round pick who rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons -- should be much more involved.

At that point, you know the drill. Play the matchup game, as you do with almost every back who shares carries, and hope you see "Cleveland," "St. Louis," "Tampa Bay" or Houston" in the schedule column next to your player.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- More sharing: In the last two games, Colts running back Joseph Addai has 23 touches (19 rushes and four receptions). Rookie Donald Brown has 20 (18 rushes and two receptions). Addai has generated 110 total yards and one touchdown, and Brown has 162 yards and a TD.

I'm not an offensive coordinator, and I don't play one on the Web, but that doesn't seem to bode well for Addai owners. At best, it's another split. At worst, Brown will take Addai's job by midseason, whether it's by injury or performance.

Addai should stay in your lineup this week against the Seahawks, who rank 25th against the run, but I wouldn't say the same for a Week 5 matchup at Tennessee.

-- Finally, less sharing:
For those keeping score on their laptops, there has been some separation between DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, one of the few backfield timeshare's that actually has worked from a fantasy standpoint.

Williams has 50 touches in three games -- 20 more than Stewart. He has received 64 percent of the rushing attempts between the two (41 of 64), compared to 59.7 percent last season. Stewart, who was limited throughout the preseason by an Achilles injury, has only 12 carries in Carolina's last two games.

Williams owners can feel better about their first-round pick getting more of the workload. The problem is he's still getting less work than he did in 2008 because Jake Delhomme has been awful, and the Panthers have been forced to throw more in their 0-3 start.

Williams should break out soon, however. Following a bye this week, the Panthers play at home against Washington (No. 21 vs. the run), at Tampa Bay (No. 31) and at home against Buffalo (No. 18).

-- Less sharing, Part II: LenDale White had one of the best lines of training camp when he said he lost weight after cutting Patron -- a high-priced tequila, for those of you who don't watch "The Hills" -- out of his diet. Maybe he did all that hard work for nothing.

The Titans, smartly, have given Chris Johnson 53 carries to White's 21, and the slimmer, faster second-year back has generated 457 yards on 64 touches, to White's 85 yards on 22 touches.

White was useful in fantasy last season, strictly because of his 15 touchdowns. Now he's no better than a reserve, one who is most valuable as an insurance policy for owners who have Johnson.

-- And the winner is: The 2008 Pierre Thomas made a belated appearance in Week 3, rushing for 126 yards and two touchdowns in the second half for the Saints. With Mike Bell missing practice again this week because of a knee injury and Thomas saying his knee is close to 100 percent, all signs point to Thomas being a valuable asset the rest of the way.

Reggie Bush, who is averaging only 10 carries per game, is a flex play at best in PPR leagues. The player we once thought could be the next Marshall Faulk is now more of a slot receiver, and Thomas, an undrafted third-year back from Illinois, is a must-start, even Sunday against the Jets and their ninth-ranked run defense.

-- And the winner is, Take II: Fred Taylor, he of the 2,466 career carries and the age at which most running backs are looking for media work (33), may have finally given Bill Belichick reason to stop the back-by-committee insanity.

Taylor, who had 17 rushing attempts in his first two games with the Patriots, had 21 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown last week. He's the only Patriots back worth considering week to week.

Just not this one. New England will host Baltimore on Sunday. The league's top-ranked run defense is allowing 51 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry. The opposition has yet to score on the ground.

-- On deck: We'll have a live fantasy football chat Thursday night at 7. To access the discussion, go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the chat. Saturday, I'll have a column on the fantasy prospects of Glen Coffee, Tashard Choice and other young backs who will play a prominent role in the next few weeks, along with an audiocast and the "big blog," which includes the expanded playlist and start-and-sit advice. All can be found in the Sports section of the N-H's Web site, and the blog will also be posted in this space.

Good luck and remember to thank the owner ahead of you in the waiver-wire pecking order who neglected to pick up Coffee (Glen, not Starbucks).

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Saturday, September 26, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit, expanded playlist and more for Week 3

Before we get to the start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist, here are a few injury notes:

-- The assumption here is Marion Barber is going to sit Monday night against the Panthers because of a quadriceps injury. If that's the case, electric Cowboys second-year back Julius Jones should be a quality play against a Carolina defense that is tied for 27th in the league in stopping the run, allowing 168 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. In eight career games, Jones, a first-round pick in 2008, has 43 carries for 384 yards (8.9 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns.

-- Expect Brian Westbrook's status to be announced about 15 minutes before kickoff Sunday. The Eagles back missed practice all week because of an ankle injury (stop if you've heard that before), but, unlike most players, that's never been a true indication that he won't play when it matters. The Eagles have a bye next week and might be more inclined to rest Westbrook, which would clear the way for rookie LeSean McCoy. Should that happen, McCoy is a good start, especially in point-per-reception leagues, vs. the Chiefs, who rank 21st against the run.

-- Mike Bell is out this week because of a knee injury, which is welcome news for Pierre Thomas owners. The latter, who missed the Saints' first game because of a knee injury and played sparingly in Week 2, should get the majority of the carries Sunday against the Bills. Reggie Bush is a worthwhile play in PPR leagues, but likely won't be much of a help in yardage- and TD-heavy formats.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Eli Manning, QB, Giants, at Buccaneers:
He’s thrown for 586 yards and three touchdowns with a passer rating of 103.2. The Buccaneers rank 27th against the pass and have allowed the second-most TD throws in the league (five).

-- Trent Edwards, QB, Bills, vs. Saints:
He’s thrown for more than 200 yards and two scores in each of Buffalo’s first two games, and the Saints rank 29th vs. the pass.

-- Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns: With four TDs, 4.9 yards per carry and six receptions, he’s one of the early season surprises. The Browns, as usual, can’t stop the run (No. 31, a league-high five rushing scores allowed).

-- Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers, vs. Dolphins: With LaDainian Tomlinson sitting for a second straight week, the explosive Sproles should have a productive game against a defense that has struggled mightily against the pass. Sproles has only 19 carries for 49 yards, but has thrived as a receiver, with 12 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown. He has scored a TD in each of the Chargers' first two games.

-- Devery Henderson, WR, Saints, at Bills: He has eight receptions for 174 yards, a 21.8-yard average that resembles his career norm of 21.6. With Lance Moore out because of a hamstring injury, Henderson will start against a Bills defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has given up five TD throws in two games.

More matchups I like:


Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Browns; Kevin Kolb, QB, Eagles, vs. Chiefs; David Garrard, QB, Jaguars, at Texans; Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints, at Bills; Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys, vs. Panthers; Ray Rice, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns; Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals, vs. Colts; Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers, vs. Giants

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Thomas Jones, RB, Jets, vs. Titans:
He and Leon Washington both have 35 touches in two games, which limits Jones’ value significantly. The Titans rank second against the run, are giving up only 1.9 yards per carry and have yet to yield a touchdown on the ground.

-- Joseph Addai, RB, Colts, at Cardinals: This former first-round fantasy pick has only 116 total yards in two games and is being outplayed by rookie Donald Brown. The Cardinals have been surprisingly effective at stopping the run (No. 5 with 113 yards; Arizona is allowing only 2.5 yards per carry).

-- Lee Evans, WR, Bills, vs. Saints: New Orleans is very generous to opposing passing games, but with T.O. in the fold, Evans (four receptions for 57 yards) is no longer a fantasy starter.

More matchups I don’t like:


Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, at Patriots; Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals, vs. Steelers; Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs, at Eagles; Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks, vs. Bears

Last week

The start list had three productive players -- Fred Jackson (163 yards rushing, six catches for 25 yards), Ben Roethlisberger (221 yards passing, one TD, one interception, one rushing TD) and Brett Favre (155 yards passing, two touchdowns and no interceptions) -- and two duds. Nate Burleson (46 yards receiving) and Isaac Bruce (35) both had four catches and no scores.

On the sit list, Kevin Smith (83 yards rushing, two catches for 10 yards, no TDs) was a good call, but Matt Schaub (357 yards and four touchdown passes) and Jay Cutler (236 yards and two TD passes) certainly were not.

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS

1. Drew Brees, Saints, at Bills (No. 31 vs. the pass)

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

3. Peyton Manning, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

4. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 23)

5. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Falcons (No. 17)

6. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

7. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 26)

8. Jay Cutler, Bears, at Seahawks (No. 2)

9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

10. Eli Manning, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

11. Trent Edwards, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 29)

12. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 3)

13. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 7)

14. Matt Ryan, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 6)

15. Kevin Kolb, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 14)

16. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 19)

17. David Garrard, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 22)

18. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 20)

19. Matt Cassel, Chiefs, at Eagles (No. 12)

20. Kyle Orton, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 20)

RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 3 vs. the run)

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 32)

3. Matt Forte, Bears, at Seahawks (No. 26)

4. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Jets (No. 6)

5. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Cowboys (No. 23)

6. Michael Turner, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 14)

7. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

8. Steven Jackson, Rams, vs. Packers (No. 18)

9. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Vikings (No. 15)

10. Steve Slaton, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 13)

11. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

12. Darren Sproles, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 7)

13. Fred Jackson, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 4)

14. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, at Chargers (No. 24)

15. y-Felix Jones, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 27)

16. Willis McGahee, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 31)

17. x-Clinton Portis, Redskins, at Lions (No. 22)

18. z-Brian Westbrook, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 21)

19. Pierre Thomas, Saints, at Bills (No. 8)

20. Kevin Smith, Lions, vs. Redskins (No. 17)

21. Darren McFadden, Raiders, vs. Broncos (No. 10)

22. Tim Hightower, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 30)

23. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers, vs. Giants (No. 27)

24. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 8)

x-This is assuming Marion Barber sits with a quad injury. If Barber is active, he is a decent play against the Panthers. y-Portis missed practice Friday because of an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. He is expected to play, but if he doesn't, backup Ladell Betts is a decent start against the Lions. z-Make sure Westbrook (ankle injury) is active. If he is out, rookie LeSean McCoy is a good start.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 26 vs. the pass)

2. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Falcons (No. 17)

3. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

4. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

5. Marques Colston, Saints, at Bills (No. 31)

6. Reggie Wayne, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

7. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 23)

8. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Cowboys (No. 3)

9. Steve Smith, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

10. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

11. Roddy White, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 6)

12. Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Redskins (No. 10)

13. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

14. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

15. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

16. x-Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Falcons

17. Terrell Owens, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 29)

18. Chad Ochocino, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 19)

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. Bears (No. 8)

20. Donald Driver, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

21. Eddie Royal, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 10)

22. Braylon Edwards, Browns, at Ravens (No. 28)

23. Devery Henderson, Saints, at Bills (No. 31)

24. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 7)

25. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 10)

26. y-Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, at Eagles (No. 12)

27. Roy Williams, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 30)

28. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, vs. Titans (No. 32)

29. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins, at Chargers (No. 13)

30. z-DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 14)

31. Santana Moss, Redskins, at Lions (No. 24)

32. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 20)

33. Laurent Robinson, Rams, vs Packers (No. 15)

34. Torry Holt, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 22)

35. Justin Gage, Titans, at Jets (No. 9)

36. Pierre Garcon, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

x-Make sure Welker (knee) is active; y-Same goes for Bowe, who is questionable because of a hamstring injury; z-Jackson (groin injury) is probable.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: For my breakdown of struggling early draft picks Matt Forte, Steve Slaton and Steven Jackson, including our weekly audiocast, click here. ... We will have another live chat with readers on Thursday at 7 p.m. Go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the live fantasy football chat at the top of the page.

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