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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Fantasy football: Week 14 waiver-wire picks

If you have made it this far, you should be in your league's postseason.

If so, congrats. And I hope you don't have Matt Forte.

As always, the following list is comprised of players who are available in more than 50 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com. This week's group is available in more than 61 percent of the ESPN formats.

1. Brad Smith, WR, Bills (owned in 0.2 percent of the ESPN leagues): He has quickly developed into the Bills' second-best receiver behind Stevie Johnson. Smith had four receptions for 77 yards and a TD in Week 12, and seven catches for 72 yards on Sunday. David Nelson, by comparison, has a combined nine receptions for 81 yards in his last three games.

Also in Smith's favor is Buffalo's schedule the next three weeks: at the Chargers (No. 6 vs. the pass), home against the Dolphins (No. 24) and vs. the Broncos (No. 23). The three teams have allowed a combined 62 TD passes in 36 games (22 each by the Chargers and Broncos). Smith is at best a No. 3 receiver in a deep point-per-reception league, but if you're desperate, he's a decent play this week.

2. Marion Barber, RB, Bears (17.3 percent): We're not high on him, as we explained Sunday night, but we understand the value of adding a starting running back this late in the season.

3. Ricky Williams, RB, Ravens (38.7 percent): He had 16 rushes for 76 yards and a TD on Sunday against the Browns. OK, everyone runs well against the Browns. The game was also Williams' first with more than nine carries since Oct. 2.

Well, consider this: In the next three weeks, the Ravens will play the Colts (Sunday) and Browns (Week 16) at home, along with a Week 15 matchup at San Diego. The Colts are the league's third-worst at stopping the run and have given up 17 rushing TDs, the Chargers rank 26th in rushing yards allowed (seven TDs) and the Browns are 31st (10 TDs).

That's great news for Ray Rice owners, and decent news if you need to take a flier on a back who might get 12 to 18 carries and score a TD in garbage time.

4. Davone Bess, WR, Dolphins (17.9 percent): He has scored a TD in two of his last three games, but has had 52 receiving yards or fewer in every game but Miami's opener. Bess was a decent PPR starter in 2009 and '10 (a combined 155 receptions), but he's been disappointing this season (40 catches for 441 yards and two TDs).

Don't expect him to continue his TD trend -- Bess had all of seven scores during his 155-catch stretch in 2009 and '10. But the schedule is favorable. Miami will play host to the Eagles in Week 14 (Philly ranks 13th vs. the pass, but has given up 22 TDs through the air), then play at Buffalo (No. 19, 21 TDs) and at New England (No. 32, 18 TDs).


5. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders (29.5 percent): He had three receptions for 23 yards and a TD last week, his first score since Week 5. In his last three games, Heyward-Bey has 11 receptions, but he was shut out in Weeks 9 and 10. In Weeks 4 through 7, he had a combined 22 catches for 385 yards.

Translation: You have no idea what he's going to give you. All I can help you with here is Oakland will play Sunday at Green Bay, which ranks 31st vs. the pass, has allowed 22 TDs through the air and will mean a lot of throwing for Carson Palmer and company after they trail by three scores.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins (owned in 5.4 percent of the ESPN leagues); Alex Smith, QB, 49ers (36.3); Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings (32.3); Donald Brown, RB, Colts (25.0); Dexter McCluster, RB, Chiefs (20.4); Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (19.6); Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles (1.1); Steve Breaston, WR, Chiefs (29.1); Damian Williams, WR, Titans (10.2); Greg Little, WR, Browns (10.2); Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos (1.8); Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (23.3); Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals (24.3); Jake Ballard, TE, Giants (29.5).

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Sunday, December 4, 2011

Fantasy football: Matt Forte injury analysis

If you subscribe to the fantasy handcuff rule -- always draft your stud running back's backup -- Marion Barber tests that theory like no one else.

Barber is a big name for a backup -- he had a combined 28 touchdowns in 2006 and '07, and was a productive fantasy starter at times during his tenure with the Cowboys.

He's also now a 28-year-old with a lot of wear on his tires. At this point in his career, he's a touchdown-or-bust fantasy play in a very deep league.

If you're a Matt Forte owner, Barber might also be your desperation start in Week 14, the beginning of the postseason in most fantasy leagues.

By now, you probably know Forte suffered a knee injury Sunday during the Bears' loss to the Chiefs. Fox's Jay Glazer reported it was a sprained MCL that could sideline the fantasy stud 2 to 4 weeks.

Translation: If you own Forte and qualified for the playoffs in your league, you're probably going to have to attempt to win a title without him.

If you didn't handcuff Forte with Barber -- I wouldn't have made the move, since I don't believe Barber is worth a roster spot in most leagues, and he's certainly not worth holding on to for 13 weeks unless your league is very generous with roster sizes -- don't get too excited about the possibility of acquiring the former Cowboy on the waiver wire Tuesday.

Barber is averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season. Yes, he has scored five touchdowns in nine games, but he is of almost no value in the passing game (he has three receptions for 18 yards this year), and if he doesn't score, he likely will get you all of four or five points.

The Bears' schedule the next three weeks isn't favorable, either.

In Week 14, Chicago plays at Denver, which entered this week ranked 19th defending the run, but has allowed only five TDs on the ground in 12 games.

In Week 15, the Bears will play host to the Seahawks (No. 12 vs. the run entering this week), and in Week 16, they play at the Packers (No. 13 vs. the run). In the latter battle, Barber would be lucky to get more than 12 to 15 carries, unless the 12-0 Packers suffer a loss prior to the game and have nothing to play for.

Injuries can force us to make lineup decisions we know aren't favorable. So if you're starting Barber in Week 14, I understand.

What I wouldn't understand would be if you thought it was anything but a lineup liability.

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Monday, October 11, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 5

Before we hear a word or two about Brett Favre tonight -- and, for once, the ESPN crew will have to tell us something other than "he's having fun out there" and "Brett Favre is a competitor, and competitors like to compete" -- let's take a look back at another wild Sunday.

Some quick takes from Week 5:

-- Start 'em: Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis (five touchdowns in as many games, including three in the last two) and Rams receiver Danny Amendola. The latter is a must-play in point-per-reception formats after catching 12 passes for 95 yards on Sunday. With Mark Clayton (22 receptions for 300 yards and two TDs in the Rams' first four games) done for the season with a knee injury, Amendola is the team's best fantasy weapon aside from Steven Jackson.

-- Free-agent bin: Lions wide receiver Nate Burleson will be one of the most popular Week 6 pickups after catching four passes for 56 yards and one TD on Sunday. Burleson had only two catches for 23 yards in the first two weeks, then sat Detroit's next two games with an ankle injury. Calvin Johnson suffered a shoulder injury that has the Lions "very concerned," according to Coach Jim Schwartz, which could leave Burleson as Detroit's No. 1 wideout.

-- Drop 'em: Giants receiver Mario Manningham, who has been shut out the last two weeks.

-- You're still going to start Lions running back Jahvid Best, but your expectations should be sufficiently tempered after three consecutive games without a touchdown for the rookie. Best had five TDs the first two weeks -- a trend you knew was going to last about as long as Jon Gruden trying to hold back Favre praise.

-- I don't want to jinx it, but it seems Wade Phillips has finally realized Felix Jones (15 carries for 109 yards, four catches for 17 yards Sunday) is the Cowboys' best running back, not Marion Barber (six carries, 19 yards).

-- The We're Getting Impatient Department (which, incidentally, is co-chaired by Reggie Bush and Dwayne Bowe): Packers receiver Greg Jennings has six catches for 63 yards the last three weeks, with two receptions in each game. He's 17 yards shy of 200 for the year.

-- I don't believe in any Bears wide receiver. If Todd Collins is playing, the level of faith is reduced to Browns wide receiver level.

-- You don't need me to tell you the Panthers' anemic passing attack is crushing DeAngelo Williams' value. The running back has 35 carries for 201 yards in the last three games -- an impressive 5.7 yards-per-carry average. But it's hard to count on him week to week because of his lack of touches. Williams has one game with more than 16 touches, and he's scored one TD in five contests.

-- We're Getting Impatient, Take II: Texans quarterback Matt Schaub has had two productive games in five weeks, and one game with more than 241 yards passing.

-- Beanie Wells, we're waiting.

-- Almost as surprising as Felix Jones' expanded role: Cowboys teammate Roy Williams has had two productive games in a row (a combined 11 catches for 204 yards and three TDs). If you have bye-week issues, he's a decent No. 3 receiver.

-- That's more like it, Michael Crabtree.

-- Stats of the week: In four games since a huge Week 1 that was helped by garbage-time production in a 38-24 loss at New England, Chad Ochocinco has a combined 14 receptions for 157 yards and zero TDs. In the four-game span, the proud creator of "child please" hasn't had more than four catches and has failed to eclipse 59 yards in a contest.

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Saturday, October 10, 2009

Fantasy football: Injury updates, start-and-sit advice, expanded playlist and more for Week 5

Before we get to the usual start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist, we'll begin with what has become another weekly staple -- injury updates.

-- Giants quarterback Eli Manning practiced Friday and is expected to be a game-time decision because of a heel injury. The Giants host the Raiders on Sunday at 1 p.m., which gives you time to decide on an alternative if Manning is inactive. If he starts, I would play him.

-- Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (rib injury) is expected to play, and he has a favorable matchup at home against the Jaguars (No. 18 vs. the pass). Consider him an upper-level No. 2 QB this week.

-- Running backs Brian Westbrook (ankle), Marion Barber (quadriceps), Kevin Smith (shoulder), Jamal Lewis (hamstring) and Derrick Ward (knee) are all expected to play. Westbrook likely will share carries with rookie LeSean McCoy, and Barber will split the workload with Tashard Choice. Lewis' injury should mean more work for Jerome Harrison, and Ward probably won't get as many touches as Cadillac Williams. Smith is the Lions' workhorse, but he has a bad matchup against the Steelers, who rank fourth vs. the run.

-- Clinton Portis wasn't listed on the Redskins' injury report this week and could have a productive day against the Panthers and their 26th-ranked run defense.

-- Willie Parker will sit for a second consecutive week, which should mean two straight big games by Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers play at Detroit, which ranks 21st defending the run.

-- Wide receivers Derrick Mason (neck), Wes Welker (knee), Antonio Bryant (knee) and Steve Breaston (knee) were limited in practice this week but are expected to play. Mason is probable, and Welker, Bryant and Breaston are questionable. Of the four, I would worry about Welker's status the most, since he's already been a surprise scratch this season. Make sure he is active before kickoff.

-- Dallas receiver Roy Williams is doubtful, which should mean more opportunities for Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin against a Chiefs pass defense that ranks 29th in the league. Crayton is a decent option as a No. 3 receiver this week.

-- Jets receiver Jerricho Cotchery missed practice Friday because of a hamstring injury, and Coach Rex Ryan told reporters he might be forced to sit Monday night. Ryan said he still thought Cotchery would play, but the wideout is a risky start because the schedule doesn't allow you many replacement options if Cotchery is a late scratch. The news gives disgruntled Braylon Edwards owners more reason to play the former Brown in his first game as a Jet.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- David Garrard, QB, and Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jaguars, at Seahawks: Garrard has thrown for 819 yards and five touchdowns, rushed for 94 yards and one score and thrown only one interception in the last three games. That’s a span that coincides with Walker’s rise to prominence (19 catches for 278 yards and three TDs the last three weeks). Seattle ranks 18th against the pass.

-- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers, at Lions:
He finally lived up to his draft billing last week in his first career start (165 yards rushing, two touchdowns and two receptions for 26 yards). With Willie Parker out again because of turf toe, Mendenhall should have another big game against the league’s No. 21 run defense.

-- Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals, vs. Texans:
He’s rushed for only 109 yards in three games, but he has 20 receptions for 172 yards and gets to face a Texans defense that ranks 30th vs. the run.

-- Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts, at Titans: The Mount Union product has six catches for 135 yards and a TD the last two weeks, and he's had long touchdowns (48 and 53 yards) in two of the last three games.

More matchups I like:

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys, at Chiefs; Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets, at Dolphins; Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, RBs, Bills, vs. Browns; Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens, vs. Bengals; Terrell Owens, WR, Bills, vs. Browns; Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks, vs. Jaguars; Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets, at Dolphins; Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns, at Bills; Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings, at Rams

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, at 49ers: The second-year stud has two productive games and one no-show thus far. I wouldn’t expect a third big day against the 49ers, who rank 11th vs. the pass and have allowed only 53 points in four games.

-- Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals, at Ravens:
He’s been one of the early season surprises (367 yards rushing, two TDs), but there aren’t many backs I would start against the league’s top run defense. Baltimore is allowing only 59.5 yards rushing per game and 2.6 yards per carry.

-- Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos, vs. Patriots:
He has eight catches for 58 yards in four games, so it really doesn’t matter how good the Patriots are vs. the pass (by the way, not bad — No. 8).

More matchups I don’t like: Kevin Smith, RB, Lions, vs. Steelers; Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward, RBs, Buccaneers, at Eagles; any Dolphins receiver vs. the Jets

Last week

The start list had two hits in Carson Palmer (230 yards passing, two touchdowns, one interception and 20 yards rushing) and Joseph Addai (46 yards rushing, seven catches for 50 yards and a touchdown) and one decent play in Glen Coffee (74 yards rushing, four catches for 32 yards). The other two — Knowshon Moreno (65 yards rushing, two receptions for 11 yards) and Kevin Walter (one catch for 41 yards) — were duds.

The sit list was 2-for-3, with Marshawn Lynch (4 yards rushing, five catches for 43 yards) and Willis McGahee (24 total yards, one catch, one TD) not reaching double digits in points. Ray Rice (103 yards rushing, five catches for 49 yards), however, was not a good call.

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS

1. Peyton Manning, Colts, at Titans (tied for No. 31 vs. the pass)

2. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Lions (No. 27)

3. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, at Buccaneers (No. 19)

4. Tom Brady, Patriots, at Broncos (No. 4)

5. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Bengals (No. 28)

6. Matt Schaub, Texans, at Cardinals (tied for No. 11)

7. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. Texans (No. 10)

8. x-Eli Manning, Giants, vs. Raiders (No. 13)

9. David Garrard, Jaguars, at Seahawks (No. 18)

10. Brett Favre, Vikings, at Rams (No. 21)

11. Carson Palmer, Bengals, at Ravens (No. 25)

12. Tony Romo, Cowboys, at Chiefs (No. 29)

13. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, vs. Jaguars (No. 18)

14. Mark Sanchez, Jets, at Dolphins (No. 26)

15. Matt Cassel, Chiefs, vs. Cowboys (No. 30)

16. Matt Ryan, Falcons, at 49ers (tied for No. 11)

17. Shaun Hill, 49ers, vs. Falcons (No. 7)

18. Kyle Orton, Broncos, vs. Patriots (No. 8)

19. Trent Edwards, Bills, vs. Browns (tied for No. 23)

20. Jason Campbell, Redskins, at Panthers (No. 3)

x-Make sure Manning (heel injury) is active.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, at Rams (No. 25 vs. the run)

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at Seahawks (No. 22)

3. Brian Westbrook, Eagles, vs. Buccaneers (No. 31)

4. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, vs. Redskins (No. 23)

5. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, at Lions (No. 21)

6. Marion Barber, Cowboys, at Chiefs (No. 24)

7. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, vs. Raiders (No. 27)

8. Chris Johnson, Titans, vs. Colts (17)

9. Steve Slaton, Texans, at Cardinals (No. 2)

10. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, vs. Jets (No. 14)

11. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, vs. Patriots (No. 12)

12. Joseph Addai, Colts, at Titans (No. 8)

13. Ray Rice, Ravens, vs. Bengals (No. 16)

14. Michael Turner, Falcons, at 49ers (No. 5)

15. Steven Jackson, Rams, vs. Vikings (No. 10)

16. Thomas Jones, Jets, at Dolphins (No. 14)

17. Clinton Portis, Redskins, at Panthers (No. 26)

18. Tim Hightower, Cardinals, vs. Texans (No. 30)

19. Fred Jackson, Bills, vs. Browns (No. 32)

20. Glen Coffee, 49ers, vs. Falcons (No. 15)

21. Willis McGahee, Ravens, vs. Bengals (No. 16)

22. Julius Jones, Seahawks, vs. Jaguars (No. 23)

23. Marshawn Lynch, Bills, vs. Browns (No. 32)

24. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants, vs. Raiders (No. 27)

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. Texans (tied for No. 11 vs. the pass)

2. Reggie Wayne, Colts, at Titans (tied for No. 31)

3. Andre Johnson, Texans, at Cardinals (tied for No. 11)

4. Steve Smith, Giants, vs. Raiders (No. 13)

5. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Buccaneers (No. 19)

6. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Lions (No. 27)

7. Randy Moss, Patriots, at Broncos (No. 4)

8. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. Texans (No. 10)

9. Steve Smith, Panthers, vs. Redskins (No. 5)

10. Roddy White, Falcons, at 49ers (tied for No. 11)

11. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, vs. Cowboys (No. 30)

12. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, at Ravens (No. 25)

13. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Bengals (No. 28)

14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. Jaguars (tied for No. 31)

15. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Lions (No. 27)

16. Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Steelers (No. 17)

17. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, vs. Patriots (No. 8)

18. Terrell Owens, Cowboys, vs. Browns (tied for No. 23)

19. Mario Manningham, Giants, vs. Raiders

20. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, at Seahawks (No. 18)

21. x-Wes Welker, Patriots, at Broncos (No. 4)

22. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, at Rams (No. 21)

23. Santana Moss, Redskins, at Panthers (No. 23)

24. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, vs. Jaguars (tied for No. 31)

25. Pierre Garcon, Colts, at Titans (tied for No. 31)

26. Kevin Walter, Texans, at Cardinals (tied for No. 11)

27. Braylon Edwards, Jets, at Dolphins (No. 26)

28. x-Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers, at Eagles (No. 2)

29. Kenny Britt, Titans, vs. Colts (No. 9)

30. Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns, at Bills (tied for No. 23)

31. Sidney Rice, Vikings, at Rams (No. 21)

32. Patrick Crayton, Dolphins, at Chiefs (No. 29)

33. x-Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, at Dolphins (No. 26)

34. Lee Evans, Bills, vs. Browns (tied for No. 23)

35. Torry Holt, Jaguars, at Seahawks (No. 18)

36. Michael Jenkins, Falcons, at 49ers (No. 11)

x-Make sure Welker (knee), Bryant (knee) and Cotchery (hamstring) are active.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: To read observations about the first four weeks of the season, including eight of the biggest surprises, click here for today’s column. The link also includes our weekly audiocast.

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Saturday, October 3, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit, expanded playlist and more for Week 4

Before we get to the start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist, here are a few quick injury updates:

-- LaDainian Tomlinson (ankle) and Marion Barber (quadriceps) are expected to play Sunday. Tomlinson is no better than a low-end No. 2 running back against the Steelers, who rank sixth against the run. Barber is a decent play, but ESPN is reporting Tashard Choice will get the majority of the work. Since we officially have entered bye-week season, both backs should be considered No. 2 options.

-- Bucs running back Derrick Ward (knee) seems likely to sit this week, which is good news for Cadillac Williams owners in a game against the Redskins (No. 22 vs. the run). Same goes for anyone who picked up Ladell Betts, who should get the start against the Bucs if Clinton Portis (ankle and calf injuries) sits. Coach Jim Zorn said Portis is "50-50" for the matchup against a Tampa Bay run defense that is the league's second-worst.

-- Steelers running back Willie Parker is doubtful because of turf toe, which should clear the way for Rashard Mendenhall to get the most work of his career. Sunday's opponent, the Chargers, rank 26th vs. the run and have allowed four rushing touchdowns.

-- Lions running back Kevin Smith said he expects to play with a shoulder injury. Sunday's matchup at the Bears (No. 13 vs. the run) isn't favorable.

-- Two upper-echelon receivers, New England's Wes Welker (knee) and Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe (hamstring), likely will be game-time decisions. I would start both if they are active.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals, at Browns:
His yardage total the last two weeks (368) isn’t impressive, but Palmer has thrown four TD passes in that span and should be good for a couple scores against the Browns.

-- Glen Coffee, RB, 49ers, vs. Rams: The rookie takes over for the injured Frank Gore for a couple weeks, and he’s lucky enough to make his first start against the Rams’ 27th-ranked run defense.

-- Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Seahawks: I don’t think this former first-round fantasy pick will be the Colts’ top back for long, but he should be an effective play against Seattle’s No. 25 run defense.

-- Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, vs. Cowboys: The rookie has rushed for 165 yards and a TD on 38 carries the last two weeks, and he might reach 100 yards for the first time in his career against the Cowboys (No. 17 vs. the run).

-- Kevin Walter, WR, Texans, vs. Raiders: He had seven catches for 96 yards and a TD in his first game back from a hamstring injury, and he should make it two productive games in a row vs. Oakland.

More matchups I like:


Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets, at Saints; Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers, vs. Rams; Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks, at Colts; Cadillac Williams, RB, Buccaneers, at Redskins; Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers, vs. Chargers; Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders, at Texans; Santana Moss, WR, Redskins, vs. Buccaneers; Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks, at Colts; Devin Hester, WR, Bears, vs. Lions; Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts, vs. Seahawks; Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jaguars, vs. Titans

Three to sit


If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens, at Patriots: The pair have combined for 382 yards rushing, seven touchdowns (six by McGahee) and 17 receptions, but don’t anticipate more of the same vs. the Patriots, who rank 10th against the run and sixth vs. the pass.

-- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills, at Dolphins: He has a very favorable matchup for his season debut (the Dolphins rank 26th in stopping the run), but I would expect Lynch to take a back seat to the productive Fred Jackson for at least one more week.

More matchups I don’t like:


Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs, vs. Giants; Thomas Jones, RB, Jets, at Saints; Fred Taylor, RB, Patriots, vs. Ravens; Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers, vs. Steelers; Kevin Smith, RB, Lions, at Bears

Last week

Let’s just say we’ve had better start lists. Willis McGahee (67 yards rushing, two touchdowns) and Eli Manning (167 yards passing, two TDs, 9 rushing yards) were productive. Trent Edwards (156 yards passing, 13 yards rushing, one interception), Devery Henderson (three receptions for 40 yards) and Darren Sproles (41 yards rushing, two catches for 14 yards) were duds.

The sit list was 2-for-3, as Thomas Jones (20 yards rushing, one catch for 2 yards) and Lee Evans (four receptions for 31 yards) were good calls, and Joseph Addai (63 yards rushing, three catches for 8 yards and a TD) was not.

Playlist
QUARTERBACKS

1. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. Seahawks (No. 7 vs. the pass)
2. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Lions (No. 30)
3. Drew Brees, Saints, vs. Jets (No. 5)
4. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Raiders (No. 14)
5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Vikings (No. 4)
6. Eli Manning, Giants, at Chiefs (No. 20)
7. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Ravens (No. 17)
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, vs. Chargers (No. 8)
9. Philip Rivers, Chargers, at Steelers (No. 15)
10. Carson Palmer, Bengals, at Browns (No. 16)
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys, at Broncos (No. 2)
12. Mark Sanchez, Jets, at Saints (No. 22)
13. Joe Flacco, Ravens, at Patriots (No. 6)
14. Shaun Hill, 49ers, vs. Rams (No. 25)
15. Kyle Orton, Broncos, vs. Cowboys (No. 27)
16. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. Packers (No. 13)
17. David Garrard, Jaguars, vs. Titans (No. 29)
18. Matt Cassel, Texans, vs. Giants (No. 1)
19. Trent Edwards, Bills, at Dolphins (No. 26)
20. Kerry Collins, Titans, at Jaguars (No. 32)
RUNNING BACKS
1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. Packers (No. 23 vs. the run)
2. Matt Forte, Bears, vs. Lions (No. 16)
3. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Jaguars (No. 14)
4. Steve Slaton, Texans, vs. Raiders (No. 28)
5. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, at Chiefs (No. 19)
6. Cedric Benson, Bears, at Browns (No. 30)
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, vs. Titans (No. 2)
8. Steven Jackson, Rams, at 49ers (No. 28)
9. Glen Coffee, 49ers, vs. Rams (No. 27)
10. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, vs Bills (No. 18)
11. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Vikings (No. 12)
12. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Seahawks (No. 25)
13. Julius Jones, Seahawks, at Colts (No. 21)
14. Fred Jackson, Bills, at Dolphins (No. 3)
15. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, vs. Cowboys (No. 17)
16. x-Clinton Portis or Ladell Betts, Redskins, vs. Buccaneers (No. 31)
17. Tashard Choice, Cowboys, at Broncos (No. 7)
18. Darren McFadden, Raiders, at Texans (No. 32)
19. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers, at Redskins (No. 22)
20. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, vs. Chargers (No. 26)
21. Marion Barber, Cowboys, at Broncos (No. 7)
22. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Steelers (No. 6)
23. Larry Johnson, Chiefs, vs. Giants (No. 20)
24. Thomas Jones, Jets, at Saints
x-If Portis is active, start him. Betts should only be used if Portis is out.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Raiders (No. 14 vs. pass)
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. Seahawks (No. 7)
3. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Ravens (No. 17)
4. Marques Colston, Saints, vs. Jets (No. 5)
5. Steve Smith, Giants, at Chiefs (No. 20)
6. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Vikings (No. 4)
7. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, at Browns (No. 16)
8. Calvin Johnson, Lions, at Bears (No. 12)
9. Donald Driver, Packers, at Vikings (No. 4)
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Steelers (No. 15)
11. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Chiefs (No. 20)
12. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, at Saints (No. 22)
13. Hines Ward, Steelers, vs. Chargers (No. 8)
14. Santana Moss, Redskins, vs. Buccaneers (No. 21)
15. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, vs. Cowboys
16. Kevin Walter, Texans, vs. Raiders (No. 14)
17. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, at Colts (No. 10)
18. Terrell Owens, Cowboys, at Dolphins (No. 26)
19. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, vs. Chargers (No. 8)
20. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, at Colts (No. 10)
21. Braylon Edwards, Browns, vs. Bengals (No. 19)
22. Derrick Mason, Ravens, at Patriots (No. 6)
23. Devin Hester, Bears, vs. Lions (No. 30)
24. Roy Williams, Cowboys, at Broncos (No. 2)
25. x-Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Ravens (No. 17)
26. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, vs. Packers (No. 13)
27. Pierre Garcon, Colts, vs. Seahawks (No. 7)
28. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, vs. Titans (No. 29)
29. Eddie Royal, Broncos, vs Cowboys (No. 27)
30. Earl Bennett, Bears, vs. Lions (No. 30)
31. x-Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, vs. Giants (No. 1)
32. Justin Gage, Titans, at Jaguars (No. 32)
33. Torry Holt, Jaguars, vs. Titans (No. 29)
34. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins, vs. Bills (No. 28)
35. Devery Henderson, Saints, vs. Jets (No. 5)
36. Lee Evans, Bills, at Dolphins (No. 26)
x-Make sure the banged-up Welker and Bowe are active.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: For my breakdown of the chances for success of Glen Coffee, Tashard Choice and more young running backs, click here. The link also includes our weekly fantasy football audiocast.

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Saturday, September 26, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit, expanded playlist and more for Week 3

Before we get to the start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist, here are a few injury notes:

-- The assumption here is Marion Barber is going to sit Monday night against the Panthers because of a quadriceps injury. If that's the case, electric Cowboys second-year back Julius Jones should be a quality play against a Carolina defense that is tied for 27th in the league in stopping the run, allowing 168 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. In eight career games, Jones, a first-round pick in 2008, has 43 carries for 384 yards (8.9 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns.

-- Expect Brian Westbrook's status to be announced about 15 minutes before kickoff Sunday. The Eagles back missed practice all week because of an ankle injury (stop if you've heard that before), but, unlike most players, that's never been a true indication that he won't play when it matters. The Eagles have a bye next week and might be more inclined to rest Westbrook, which would clear the way for rookie LeSean McCoy. Should that happen, McCoy is a good start, especially in point-per-reception leagues, vs. the Chiefs, who rank 21st against the run.

-- Mike Bell is out this week because of a knee injury, which is welcome news for Pierre Thomas owners. The latter, who missed the Saints' first game because of a knee injury and played sparingly in Week 2, should get the majority of the carries Sunday against the Bills. Reggie Bush is a worthwhile play in PPR leagues, but likely won't be much of a help in yardage- and TD-heavy formats.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Eli Manning, QB, Giants, at Buccaneers:
He’s thrown for 586 yards and three touchdowns with a passer rating of 103.2. The Buccaneers rank 27th against the pass and have allowed the second-most TD throws in the league (five).

-- Trent Edwards, QB, Bills, vs. Saints:
He’s thrown for more than 200 yards and two scores in each of Buffalo’s first two games, and the Saints rank 29th vs. the pass.

-- Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns: With four TDs, 4.9 yards per carry and six receptions, he’s one of the early season surprises. The Browns, as usual, can’t stop the run (No. 31, a league-high five rushing scores allowed).

-- Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers, vs. Dolphins: With LaDainian Tomlinson sitting for a second straight week, the explosive Sproles should have a productive game against a defense that has struggled mightily against the pass. Sproles has only 19 carries for 49 yards, but has thrived as a receiver, with 12 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown. He has scored a TD in each of the Chargers' first two games.

-- Devery Henderson, WR, Saints, at Bills: He has eight receptions for 174 yards, a 21.8-yard average that resembles his career norm of 21.6. With Lance Moore out because of a hamstring injury, Henderson will start against a Bills defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has given up five TD throws in two games.

More matchups I like:


Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Browns; Kevin Kolb, QB, Eagles, vs. Chiefs; David Garrard, QB, Jaguars, at Texans; Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints, at Bills; Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys, vs. Panthers; Ray Rice, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns; Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals, vs. Colts; Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers, vs. Giants

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Thomas Jones, RB, Jets, vs. Titans:
He and Leon Washington both have 35 touches in two games, which limits Jones’ value significantly. The Titans rank second against the run, are giving up only 1.9 yards per carry and have yet to yield a touchdown on the ground.

-- Joseph Addai, RB, Colts, at Cardinals: This former first-round fantasy pick has only 116 total yards in two games and is being outplayed by rookie Donald Brown. The Cardinals have been surprisingly effective at stopping the run (No. 5 with 113 yards; Arizona is allowing only 2.5 yards per carry).

-- Lee Evans, WR, Bills, vs. Saints: New Orleans is very generous to opposing passing games, but with T.O. in the fold, Evans (four receptions for 57 yards) is no longer a fantasy starter.

More matchups I don’t like:


Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, at Patriots; Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals, vs. Steelers; Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs, at Eagles; Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks, vs. Bears

Last week

The start list had three productive players -- Fred Jackson (163 yards rushing, six catches for 25 yards), Ben Roethlisberger (221 yards passing, one TD, one interception, one rushing TD) and Brett Favre (155 yards passing, two touchdowns and no interceptions) -- and two duds. Nate Burleson (46 yards receiving) and Isaac Bruce (35) both had four catches and no scores.

On the sit list, Kevin Smith (83 yards rushing, two catches for 10 yards, no TDs) was a good call, but Matt Schaub (357 yards and four touchdown passes) and Jay Cutler (236 yards and two TD passes) certainly were not.

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS

1. Drew Brees, Saints, at Bills (No. 31 vs. the pass)

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

3. Peyton Manning, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

4. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 23)

5. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Falcons (No. 17)

6. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

7. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 26)

8. Jay Cutler, Bears, at Seahawks (No. 2)

9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

10. Eli Manning, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

11. Trent Edwards, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 29)

12. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 3)

13. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 7)

14. Matt Ryan, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 6)

15. Kevin Kolb, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 14)

16. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 19)

17. David Garrard, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 22)

18. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 20)

19. Matt Cassel, Chiefs, at Eagles (No. 12)

20. Kyle Orton, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 20)

RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 3 vs. the run)

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 32)

3. Matt Forte, Bears, at Seahawks (No. 26)

4. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Jets (No. 6)

5. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Cowboys (No. 23)

6. Michael Turner, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 14)

7. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

8. Steven Jackson, Rams, vs. Packers (No. 18)

9. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Vikings (No. 15)

10. Steve Slaton, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 13)

11. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

12. Darren Sproles, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 7)

13. Fred Jackson, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 4)

14. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, at Chargers (No. 24)

15. y-Felix Jones, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 27)

16. Willis McGahee, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 31)

17. x-Clinton Portis, Redskins, at Lions (No. 22)

18. z-Brian Westbrook, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 21)

19. Pierre Thomas, Saints, at Bills (No. 8)

20. Kevin Smith, Lions, vs. Redskins (No. 17)

21. Darren McFadden, Raiders, vs. Broncos (No. 10)

22. Tim Hightower, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 30)

23. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers, vs. Giants (No. 27)

24. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 8)

x-This is assuming Marion Barber sits with a quad injury. If Barber is active, he is a decent play against the Panthers. y-Portis missed practice Friday because of an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. He is expected to play, but if he doesn't, backup Ladell Betts is a decent start against the Lions. z-Make sure Westbrook (ankle injury) is active. If he is out, rookie LeSean McCoy is a good start.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 26 vs. the pass)

2. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Falcons (No. 17)

3. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

4. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

5. Marques Colston, Saints, at Bills (No. 31)

6. Reggie Wayne, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

7. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 23)

8. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Cowboys (No. 3)

9. Steve Smith, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

10. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

11. Roddy White, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 6)

12. Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Redskins (No. 10)

13. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

14. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

15. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

16. x-Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Falcons

17. Terrell Owens, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 29)

18. Chad Ochocino, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 19)

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. Bears (No. 8)

20. Donald Driver, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

21. Eddie Royal, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 10)

22. Braylon Edwards, Browns, at Ravens (No. 28)

23. Devery Henderson, Saints, at Bills (No. 31)

24. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 7)

25. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 10)

26. y-Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, at Eagles (No. 12)

27. Roy Williams, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 30)

28. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, vs. Titans (No. 32)

29. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins, at Chargers (No. 13)

30. z-DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 14)

31. Santana Moss, Redskins, at Lions (No. 24)

32. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 20)

33. Laurent Robinson, Rams, vs Packers (No. 15)

34. Torry Holt, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 22)

35. Justin Gage, Titans, at Jets (No. 9)

36. Pierre Garcon, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

x-Make sure Welker (knee) is active; y-Same goes for Bowe, who is questionable because of a hamstring injury; z-Jackson (groin injury) is probable.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: For my breakdown of struggling early draft picks Matt Forte, Steve Slaton and Steven Jackson, including our weekly audiocast, click here. ... We will have another live chat with readers on Thursday at 7 p.m. Go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the live fantasy football chat at the top of the page.

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Thursday, September 17, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 2

We'll make this a weekly staple during the football season -- a mid-week collection of news and notes of relevance for fantasy owners.

On Saturdays, we'll have a column each week for the print editions and the N-H's Sports site (this week's will focus on Anthony Gonzalez's knee injury and a buy-and-sell for some of Week 1's surprise performances). There will also be an audiocast published that morning on our online Sports section.

Saturday will also be when we publish the "big blog," which includes the expanded playlist, five players to start, three to sit and much more. That can be found under "latest updates" on the homepage of our Web site and at www.News-Herald.com/Sports.

Thursday, we held our first live fantasy football chat. The plan for now is to have them every Thursday at 4 p.m. during the football season. Here's a recap of today's.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- Take a seat, L.T.: LaDainian Tomlinson is saying he plans to play this week against Baltimore, despite a sprained ankle that has required him to wear a protective boot. It's fair to wonder if he thinks he can help his team or if he's worried the Chargers are slowly realizing that Darren Sproles, at this stage of their respective careers, is better. If Tomlinson plays Sunday, I would bench him against the Ravens, who held the Chiefs to 29 rushing yards last week and ranked third against the run last season. Baltimore allowed only 3.6 yards per carry and a league-low four rushing touchdowns in 2008.

If L.T. sits for just the second time in his career, I would consider playing Sproles in point-per-reception leagues. The speedy back will never be a 20-carry player, but he has averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his career and is an effective receiver.

-- Cool your Jets: Mark Sanchez could be the next Matt Ryan -- a sporadic fantasy starter as a rookie. Or he could be the next Joe Flacco -- an effective rookie QB with minimal value in the fake game. The Jets quarterback was impressive in throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but let's not forget it was against the Texans, against whom opposing QBs had a 92.3 rating in 2008. Until we find out in which category Sanchez fits, I wouldn't consider him.

-- What's the catch?: Matt Forte owners should be slightly concerned, but not about the 2.2 yards per carry the Bears running back averaged in Week 1. The number I would focus on is one, as in the times Forte was targeted by Jay Cutler on Sunday night. Forte's greatest fantasy asset is his ability to rack up both rushing (1,238 yards as a rookie in 2008) and receiving numbers (63 catches for 477 yards). But in Cutler's Chicago debut, he targeted former Vanderbilt teammate Earl Bennett 14 times, yet threw only six passes to tight end Greg Olsen, four to Devin Hester and one to Forte. That has to change if Forte is to remain worthy of a first-round fantasy pick.

-- Too much sharing: As expected, the number of teams splitting carries is more frustrating than an Eric Mangini injury report. Preseason Achilles injury and all, Jonathan Stewart (11 rushing attempts Sunday) is still around to haunt owners of DeAngelo Williams (14 carries). Baltimore has two effective backs (Ray Rice and Willis McGahee) and a fullback (LeRon McClain) who swipes goal-line carries, and the Bucs' time share now includes a rejuvenated (at least until he gets hurt) Cadillac Williams (our condolences on the late draft pick, Earnest Graham owners).

Did we mention Leon Washington got just five fewer carries than Jets teammate Thomas Jones in Week 1, or that Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno each had only eight attempts for Denver at Cincinnati? Then there's the electric Ahmad Bradshaw, who seems to be ready to fill Derrick Ward's former role as the lightning to Brandon Jacobs' thunder. Jacobs had 16 carries for 46 yards last week -- to Bradshaw's 12 for 60.

Rookie Donald Brown had 11 carries for 33 yards in his Colts debut (starter Joseph Addai has 17 for 42),and Beanie Wells' first game as a Cardinal featured seven carries for 29 yards (Tim Hightower had eight carries for 15 yards and possibly the most surprising stat line of the weekend: 12 catches for 121 yards).

Aside from Hightower's receiving totals, which won't happen again, the only encouraging numbers to come from from the Backfield-By-Committee Division were these: 14, 79, 1. Those were Marion Barber's attempts, yards and touchdowns for Dallas at Tampa Bay, compared to Felix Jones' six carries for 22 yards. If Barber continues to get the majority of the touches, he should regain his 2007 status as a high-end No. 2 fantasy back.

-- Closing number: 25.0. That's Eagles backup Kevin Kolb's passer rating in 45 career attempts, which have generated zero touchdowns and four interceptions. We'll address Donovan McNabb's rib injury more in Saturday's blog, but until then, if you are a McNabb owner and are considering using Kolb if McNabb doesn't play, don't. Of McNabb's three backups, the one who might have the greatest value the rest of the season wasn't even on any team's roster in Week 1: Jeff Garcia. Sorry, Michael Vick. I'm no offensive coordinator (even though I can run the no-huddle), but I doubt the latter will have any fantasy impact this season.

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