Blogs > N-H Fantasy Sports

News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Fantasy football: Bryce Brown and LeSean McCoy analysis

If you play fantasy football, you're likely aware Bryce Brown has been one of the waiver-wire finds of the year.

The Eagles' rookie running back has rushed for 347 yards and four touchdowns in two games in place of LeSean McCoy. He has averaged 8.1 yards per carry the last two weeks, and he's been remarkably explosive (at least 169 yards rushing in each game, with two TDs and four catches in each contest).

What you might not realize is Brown was regarded as the nation's No. 2 running back recruit in 2009. The consensus No. 1: Trent Richardson.

Brown rushed for 460 yards as a freshman at Tennessee in 2009, sat out the 2010 season after transferring to Kansas State, then had only three carries for 16 yards with the Wildcats last September before leaving the program.

The Eagles selected him in the seventh round last spring, and he was largely unknown in fantasy until McCoy suffered a concussion.

Monday, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported McCoy is in Phase 3 of his recovery, but considering the Eagles are 3-9, Coach Andy Reid is on his way out and Nick Foles will be the starting quarterback the rest of the season, would you be surprised if Philly rests McCoy for another week or two and sees what it has in Brown?

If you own McCoy and not Brown and have a fantasy playoff game this week, I wouldn't feel good about my chances of having the former in my starting lineup in Week 14.

If you have Brown, you have to continue to play him, obviously, until McCoy returns. Once Shady is back, Brown has to go back to your bench -- remember, it has been difficult enough for McCoy to get enough carries with Reid calling the plays, let alone dividing carries between two electric backs.

If you own McCoy in a keeper league, don't fret.

McCoy is 24, was signed to a five-year, $45 million contract extension in May, and he rushed for 1,309 yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry, scored 20 total touchdowns and caught 48 passes for 315 yards last season.

He's not going anywhere.

This season is another matter.

Nothing the Eagles do from this point on would surprise us.

You should expect McCoy to be in your lineup in time for at least the fantasy semifinals next week.

You should also be prepared to be without him.

If you own Brown and not McCoy, two stats might cool your enthusiasm about the rookie: He has lost three fumbles the last two weeks (causing Reid's mustache considerable stress), and the Eagles face the league's No. 1 (the Bucs on Sunday) and No. 3 (the Redskins in Week 16) run defenses the next three weeks.

Continue to play Brown until McCoy returns, and continue to expect the unexpected in Reid's final days in Philly.

Labels: , ,

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

2012 fantasy football rankings: Running backs

Once the unquestioned king of fantasy football positions, the 2012 crop of running backs has three hammers -- Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy -- then a lot of questions.

-- Will Maurice Jones-Drew's holdout end before your draft?

-- Where do you draft former no-doubt-about-it No. 1 overall fantasy pick Adrian Peterson, who is recovering from a torn ACL?

-- Can you trust Chris Johnson after last year's holdout/four-TDs-in-16-games debacle?

-- Is the injury-prone Ryan Mathews going to be as good as everyone seems to think he will be now that goal-line vulture Mike Tolbert has left town?

-- Will Matt Forte be as good now that Michael Bush could serve as the Bears' goal-line vulture?

-- Can Darren McFadden stay healthy?

-- Should you be concerned that Trent Richardson is already banged up?

-- Can DeMarco Murray sustain his 2011 rookie success over a full season?

You get the idea.

On to our second set of rankings for 2012, which reflects updates we made Aug. 12:

Rank, player, team (bye week): GP, Rushing yards-Avg-TD, Receptions-Yards-TD
1. Arian Foster, Hou (8): 13, 1,224-4.4-10, 53-617-2
2. Ray Rice, Bal (8): 16, 1,364-4.7-12, 76-704-3
3. LeSean McCoy, Phi (7): 15, 1,309-4.8-17, 48-315-3
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac (6): 16, 1,606-4.7-8, 43-374-3
5. Chris Johnson, Ten (11): 16, 1,047-4.0-4, 57-418-0
6. Matt Forte, Chi (6): 12, 997-4.9-3, 52-490-1
7. Darren McFadden, Oak (5): 7, 614-5.4-4, 19-154-1
8. DeMarco Murray, Dal (5): 13, 897-5.5-2, 26-183-0
9. Steven Jackson, StL (9): 15, 1,145-4.4-5, 42-333-1
10. Ryan Mathews, SD (7): 14, 1,091-4.9-6, 50-455-0
11. Adrian Peterson, Min (11): 12, 970-4.7-12, 18-139-1
12. Marshawn Lynch, Sea (11): 15, 1,204-4.2-12, 28-212-1
13. Fred Jackson, Buf (8): 10, 934-5.5-6, 39-442-0
14. Michael Turner, Atl (7): 16, 1,340-4.5-11, 17-168-0
15. Frank Gore, SF (9): 16, 1,211-4.3-8, 17-114-0
16. Jamaal Charles, KC (7): 2, 83-6.9-0, 5-9-1
17. Trent Richardson, Cle (10): Rookie
18. Darren Sproles, NO (6): 16, 603-6.9-2, 86-710-7
19. Shonn Greene, NYJ (9): 16, 1,054-4.2-6, 30-211-0
20. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (11): 12, 659-3.9-9, 34-267-2
21. Reggie Bush, Mia (7): 15, 1,086-5.0-6, 43-296-1
22. Isaac Redman, Pit (4): 16, 479-4.4-3, 18-78-0
23. Willis McGahee, Den (7): 15, 1,199-4.8-4, 12-51-1
24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin (8): 16, 667-3.7-11, 9-159-0
25. Doug Martin, TB (5): Rookie
26. Stevan Ridley, NE (9): 16, 421-5.1-1, 3-13-0
27. Jonathan Stewart, Car (6): 16, 761-5.4-4, 47-413-1
28. Beanie Wells, Ari (10): 14, 1,047-4.3-10, 10-52-0
29. Roy Helu, Was (10): 15, 640-4.2-2, 49-379-1
30. DeAngelo Williams, Car (6): 16, 836-5.4-7, 16-135-0
31. Ben Tate, Hou (8): 15, 942-5.4-4, 13-98-0
32. Donald Brown, Ind (4): 16, 645-4.8-5, 16-86-0
33. Peyton Hillis, KC (7): 10, 587-3.6-3, 22-130-0
34. C.J. Spiller, Buf (8): 16, 561-5.2-4, 39-269-2
35. Toby Gerhart, Min (11): 16, 531-4.9-1, 23-190-3
36. Mark Ingram, NO (6): 10, 474-3.9-5, 11-46-0
37. James Starks, GB (10): 13, 578-4.3-1, 29-216-0
38. Kevin Smith, Det (5): 7, 356-4.9-4, 22-179-3
39. Felix Jones, Dal (5): 12, 575-4.5-1, 33-221-0
40. Michael Bush, Chi (6): 16, 997-3.8-7, 37-418-1
41. Evan Royster, Was (10): 6, 328-5.9-0, 9-68-0
42. Daniel Thomas, Mia (7): 13, 581-3.5-0, 12-72-1
43. LeGarrette Blount, TB (5): 14, 781-4.2-5, 15-148-0
44. Jahvid Best, Det (5): 6, 390-4.6-2, 27-287-1
45. David Wilson, NYG (11): Rookie
46. Ryan Williams, Ari (10): Didn't play
47. Ronnie Brown, SD (7): 16, 136-3.2-1, 0-0-0
48. Mike Goodson, Oak (5): 16, 452-4.4-3, 1-4-0
49. Shane Vereen, NE (9): 5, 57-3.8-1, 0-0-0
50. Bernard Scott, Cin (8): 16, 380-3.4-3, 13-38-0

NOTE: All statistics are from the 2011 season.

QUICK SLANTS: In the last two seasons, Foster has rushed for 2,840 rush yards, caught 119 passes for 1,221 yards and scored 30 total TDs in 29 games. … Rice’s 15 TDs in 2011 were one more than he had combined in otherwise productive 2010 and ’09 seasons. … McCoy’s TDs were way up (from nine in 2010 to 20 last season), and his receiving numbers were significantly down (from 78 catches for 592 yards in 2010). … Jones-Drew had 30 total TDs in 2008 and ’09, but has averaged nine TDs in the last two years. … In 2009 and ’10, Johnson had 28 total TDs. … The Rams' Jackson has 60 total TDs in 115 career games, and 16 were in 2006. … Lynch had 24 TDs in his first five NFL seasons. … McFadden has missed 19 games in four years. … Turner has 50 rushing TDs in 59 games in four seasons with the Falcons. … Gore had 13 TDs in 14 games in 2009. He has 39 total TDs in the other 86 contests in which he has played in his career. ... Reggie Bush had never run for more than 581 yards in his first five NFL seasons. … In the last two games of the Steelers' 2011 season, including a postseason loss at Denver, Redman had 213 yards rushing, one TD and five catches for 39 yards. … Green-Ellis has 24 TDs the last two years. … The Panthers' Stewart had 21 TDs in his first two seasons and has eight in the last two. … DeAngelo Williams had 20 TDs in 16 contests in 2008. He has 22 total TDs in the other 64 games in which he has played. … Hillis had 13 total TDs, 1,654 total yards and 61 catches with the Browns in 2010.

PREVIOUS RANKINGS: Quarterbacks

NEXT: Wide receivers

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Eagles-Seahawks game

Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin are out tonight, and LeSean McCoy is questionable with a sprained toe. Seattle, meanwhile, has one player who is worth starting in fantasy.

Other than that, it should be a great game. At least we can learn something from NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock (just remember not to watch the postgame show, which includes such broadcasting luminaries as Deion Sanders, Michael Irvin and Steve Mariucci).

START

Eagles: RB LeSean McCoy, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Jason Avant, TE Brent Celek, K Alex Henery

Seahawks: RB Marshawn Lynch

Quick slants: McCoy is expected to play. If you're fighting for a playoff spot in the last week of your league's regular season, you better hope he does. McCoy has 1,050 yards rushing, 38 receptions, 1,278 total yards and 13 touchdowns. ... Jackson was benched late last week and has been a disappointment in his contract year. He hasn't scored a TD since Oct. 9. We get the feeling he is due. ... Avant had eight receptions for 110 yards and a TD last week, and as we wrote on Tuesday, we think he's a better option than starting receiver Riley Cooper. ... Celek has 29 receptions for 342 yards and one TD in his last five games. If he had one or two more TDs in that span, it would seem like 2009 all over again (Celek had 76 catches for 971 yards and eight scores that season). ... Henery is a low-level starting kicker, but might get more of a chance to boot a few field goals tonight. He is 18-for-21 and has 83 points on the season, but he's made only two kicks of 40 yards or more. ... Lynch's season stats aren't anything special (706 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, six TDs, 20 catches), but he has reached the end zone in seven consecutive games. In his last four contests, he has rushed for 443 yards, caught nine passes for 87 yards and has four TDs. 

SIT

Eagles: QB Vince Young, WR Riley Cooper, defense and special teams

Seahawks: QB Tarvaris Jackson, WR Doug Baldwin, K Steven Hauschka, defense and special teams

Quick slants: Young has thrown for 658 yards in two starts in place of Vick, but he has three TDs, compared to four interceptions, in that span. Last week, he racked up 400 yards, mostly in garbage time of a 38-20 loss to the Patriots. ... Cooper has eight receptions for 146 yards and a TD in his last two games. If you are desperate for receiving help, he is a decent option against a Seahawks pass defense that ranks 20th. ... The Eagles' defense ranks 15th in total yards (344.6), 19th in points allowed (22.8), 16th vs. the pass (234 yards), 15th vs. the run (110.3), has forced 16 turnovers and has 30 sacks. ... Jackson has three more interceptions (12) than TD passes (nine). ... Baldwin should be Seattle's top target with Sidney Rice out for the season, but that's not saying much. He has eight receptions for 120 yards in his last two games, but hasn't scored in his last six contests. ... Hauschka is 17-for-20 on field-goal attempts, but Seattle's woeful offense has limited him to 69 points. ... The Seahawks' defense ranks 14th in total yards (340.5), is tied for 15th in points allowed (21.1), is 20th vs. the pass (240), 11th vs. the run (100.9), has forced 19 turnovers and has only 20 sacks.

Labels: , , , , , ,

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Fantasy football: Rapid reaction, Week 5

There might be another running back who is every owner's first pick on the waiver wire Tuesday morning.

Chiefs running back Jackie Battle had 19 carries for 119 yards and two receptions for 21 yards Sunday against the Colts. Considering teammates Thomas Jones (10 attempts for 55 yards) and Dexter McCluster (four carries, 8 yards) combined for 63 yards against Indy, Battle certainly will merit consideration this week.

Before you get too excited, though, consider this: Prior to Sunday, he had 51 rushes for 155 yards (3.0 per carry) in his career.

He's no Jamaal Charles, but he's definitely more interesting than Jones and McCluster at this point. And there aren't many opportunities to acquire a featured back as a free agent in Week 6.

Let's get to a few more quick takes from another busy Sunday in fantasy:

-- If you're a LeSean McCoy owner, you can't complain about the Eagles running back's production. McCoy has scored seven TDs, rushed for 443 yards and caught 19 passes. But you can grumble about the fact he has had a combined 20 rushing attempts the last two weeks. Leave it to Andy Reid to under-use a running back who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. McCoy had 57 rushes and 66 touches in the Eagles' first three games.

-- We'll keep it on the ground and throw out the possibility that Buffalo's Fred Jackson might be the most surprising backfield stud of 2011. In five games, Jackson has 90 carries for 480 yards (5.3 average) and five TDs, and he has caught 18 passes for 232 yards. That's a norm of 6.6 yards per touch. Quick, would you rather have Fred Jackson or Chris Johnson right now?

-- Now that we've reached the five-game mark, the Titans' Johnson officially has me worried. I drafted him second overall in the News-Herald league, thinking he was a no-brainer there once his holdout ended, and he has 250 yards rushing and an average of 3.0 yards per attempt. Johnson has rushed for more than 53 yards once all year, and Sunday's garbage-time touchdown against the Steelers was his first score of the year. I'm not benching him yet, but I am kicking myself for not taking Arian Foster.

-- Foster has rewarded the owners who took a risk and drafted him in the top five. His hamstring injury delayed his rise to his 2010 level, but the Texans back has 223 yards rushing, one TD and eight receptions for 127 yards in his last two games. Houston clearly isn't worried about his health. Foster has averaged 30 touches in the two contests.

-- Speaking of bad hamstrings, the Steelers' Rashard Mendenhall might have more of an urgency to get back in the lineup after watching Jonathan Dwyer (11 carries for 107 yards, one catch for 6 yards) and Isaac Redman (15 carries for 49 yards, three receptions for 12 yards) combine for 174 total yards Sunday against a Titans defense that entered the game allowing 87.8 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per attempt. If Mendenhall is out another week, Redman is the better play of the two.

-- No worries after all, Frank Gore fans. The 49ers back was limited to 148 yards on 59 carries (2.5) in his first three games. In two games since, Gore has 35 carries for 252 yards (7.2) and two TDs, along with four receptions for 30 yards.

-- So much for the Stevan Ridley hype in New England. The rookie had seven rushes for 13 yards Sunday, one week after he got our attention with a breakout 10-carry, 97-yard, one-TD performance against the Raiders. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, meanwhile, had a whopping 27 carries for 136 yards and two TDs for New England in its win over the Jets. No featured-back debate here -- at least for now.

-- Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars' debacle of a quarterback situation is crushing Maurice Jones-Drew's value. Now that Jones-Drew doesn't catch many passes (he has seven receptions for 67 yards in five games), we need him to rack up yards and TDs on the ground. Jones-Drew was productive Sunday, but Jacksonville's ineptitude has resulted in him receiving a combined 30 rushing attempts the last two weeks.

-- It must be the year of the quarterback. Tennessee's Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 1,414 yards and nine TDs in five games. He's on pace for 4,525 yards for a team that has lost top wideout Kenny Britt and has Chris Johnson being outperformed by the likes of Willis McGahee.

-- If it is the year of the QB, it's puzzling that San Diego's Philip Rivers has thrown one more interception (seven) than he has TD passes (six) this season. Rivers is averaging 307 yards passing per game, but the absence of Antonio Gates clearly is affecting him in the red zone and beyond.

-- Check out the Saints' box score from their win over Carolina on Sunday. That spread-the-wealth mentality is why it's so difficult to trust any New Orleans wide receiver. But it is easy to believe tight end Jimmy Graham is among the league's best. Graham has three consecutive 100-yard games.

-- The last two weeks have proven that it's advantage, Victor Cruz, when it comes to deciding the second-best fantasy option among Giants receivers. The rookie has a combined 14 receptions for 259 yards and a TD in his last two games. Mario Manningham has six catches for 66 yards and zero scores in that span.

-- Would you believe me if I told you Darrius Heyward-Bey has 13 receptions for 214 yards and a TD in the Raiders' last two games? I wouldn't start the much-maligned Al Davis draft pick, but he has at least caught my eye.

That's it for tonight. We'll we back Tuesday with waiver-wire picks for Week 6.

Until then, you can follow me on Twitter.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Fantasy football: Top keepers for 2011, RBs

We apologize for the delay in posts between the top quarterback keepers and this breakdown of the running backs.

I'd like to place all the blame on the NFL's owners and players' union, who, the more they speak, the more they make us believe we could be looking at a nine-week fantasy season in 2011. (That should be a fun scheduling dilemma for league commissioners everywhere.)

Without further delay, here is our list of the top 10 running backs for keeper leagues. The top 10 quarterbacks can be found here (and we like the Aaron Rodgers pick even more three weeks later).

1. Arian Foster, Texans (age 24): He seemingly came out of nowhere to rush for 1,616 yards, catch 66 passes for 604 yards and score 18 touchdowns in 2010. He's a risky pick over the two players who follow, but I'd put my faith in a back who doesn't have a lot of mileage.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (turns 26 on March 21): He rushed for a career-low 1,298 yards, but his "down" season included 13 total TDs and 36 receptions for 341 yards. He's an "old" 25 by running-back standards (1,198 carries and 119 receptions in four seasons), but I wouldn't worry yet.

3. Chris Johnson, Titans (25): He said his goal was a 2,500-yard season, and he fell, oh, 1,137 yards short. Johnson still had a productive season (1,364 yards rushing, 44 receptions, 12 total TDs), but his total yards dropped from 2,509 in 2009 to 1,609 last season, and his supporting cast is almost as bad as Antawn Jamison's.

4. Ray Rice, Ravens (24): If only he scored more touchdowns. Rice rushed for 1,220 yards and caught 63 passes for 556 yards last season, but his TD total slipped from eight to six. He's a yardage and point-per-catch machine, but he needs to reach double digits in TDs on a consistent basis to crack the top three.

5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (24):
He proved his monstrous second half in 2009 was no fluke. Charles, despite sharing carries with Thomas Jones, ran for 1,467 yards, averaged 6.4 yards per carry, caught 45 passes for 468 yards and scored eight TDs. If he ever gets near 20 touches per game, look out.

6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles (22): In PPR leagues, he's excellent. McCoy rushed for 1,080 yards (5.2 per carry), caught 78 passes for 592 yards and reached the end zone nine times in 2010.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (25): A knee injury cost him the final two games of the 2010 season, and dropped him a couple places on this list. Jones-Drew rushed for 1,324 yards and caught 34 passes for 317 yards, but his TDs dropped from 16 in 2009 to seven, and he caught 19 fewer passes.

8. Matt Forte, Bears (25): He was a bust in 2009, but produced in 2010 as if he was a stud rookie. The only difference was Forte had 12 TDs in 2008, his first NFL season, and nine in 2010. He rushed for 1,069 yards and had 51 receptions for 547 yards, easing our fears about offensive coordinator Mike Martz giving Forte enough chances.

9. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (23):
Aside from a crucial fumble in the Super Bowl, Mendenhall had a very productive third season (1,273 yards, 13 TDs, 23 catches). He can't compete with the top eight players on this list in PPR leagues, but in yardage- and TD-heavy leagues, he's among the best.

10. Darren McFadden, Raiders (23):
In Year 3, he lived up to the hype. In Year 4, he could let us all down again. I believe in McFadden, however, after he racked up 1,157 rushing yards, 47 catches, 507 receiving yards and 10 TDs in 13 games. A concern: He's played in 13, 12 and 13 games in his three NFL seasons.

Honorable mention

11. Frank Gore, 49ers (27):
He was limited to 11 games by a hip injury, ending his streak of 1,000-yard rushing seasons at four. Gore had 1,120 yards on the ground, caught 52 passes for 406 yards and tallied 13 TDs in 2009.

12. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (24):
He recently had ankle surgery, but it's not expected to impact his 2011 season. Bradshaw emerged from Brandon Jacobs' large shadow to run for 1,235 yards, score eight times and total 47 receptions for 314 yards last season.

13. Ryan Mathews, Chargers (23): Some of us expected too much, and we got almost nothing until Mathews' last two games, a span in which he had four TDs. His second season should be much more productive than his first.

14. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers (24):
He wasn't drafted, but had a much better rookie campaign than the first-round selection one spot above on this list. Blount rushed for 1,007 yards and six TDs, but doesn't appear as if he'll be much of an asset in the passing game (five catches for 14 yards).

15. Peyton Hillis, Browns (25): He had 331 touches in 16 games, breaking down some at the end, but was very good for the majority of 2010. Hillis ran for 1,177 yards, scored 13 TDs and had 61 receptions for 477 yards. Those numbers should drop, and maybe significantly, in Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense, which is expected to be bolstered by a return to health of Montario Hardesty. The latter could share carries with Hillis.

Others we considered: Shonn Greene, Jets; C.J. Spiller, Bills; Knowshon Moreno, Broncos; Jonathan Stewart, Panthers; Beanie Wells, Cardinals.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Texans-Eagles game

In case you can't bear to watch the No-Longer-Chosen One's return to Quicken Loans Arena tonight ...

START 'EM

Eagles: QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Jeremy Maclin, K David Akers.

Texans: QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, K Neil Rackers.

Quick slants: McCoy is averaging 5 yards per carry, has seven total touchdowns and has 59 receptions. ... Maclin has eight touchdowns and actually has 16 more catches (51 to 35), 74 more receiving yards (752 to 678) and three more TDs than Jackson, his more celebrated teammate. ... Akers is averaging 9.5 points per game. ... Schaub, after a rough stretch, has rebounded to throw five touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last three games. ... Foster -- the best player in fantasy this season; you saw that coming, right? -- has rushed for 1,147 yards and 12 TDs and caught 48 passes for 453 yards and a TD. ... Rackes is averaging 7.6 points per game.

SIT 'EM

Eagles:
WR Jason Avant, TE Brent Celek, defense and special teams.

Texans: WR Kevin Walter, TE Joel Dreessen, defense and special teams.

Quick slants: The Texans have the league's second-worst pass defense, allowing 286 yards per game through the air, and have given up an NFL-worst 25 TD tosses. ... Houston ranks ninth against the run at 100.2 yards per game (eight rushing TDs allowed). ... Philly is 12th vs. the run (102.5 rushing yards per game, eight TDs) and No. 13 vs. the pass (214 yards, 22 TDs, 19 interceptions). The Eagles have allowed the fourth-most TD passes, but lead the league in picks.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Fantasy football: Injury updates, start-and-sit advice, expanded playlist and more for Week 11

A brutal Week 10 has left many of you scrambling for help at running back (hello, Bernard Scott, Justin Forsett and Jason Snelling).

A quick roundup of the most notable injuries:

-- Both Michael Turner (sprained ankle) and Cedric Benson (hip injury) are listed as doubtful, but the ailments for both backs seem to be only a one-week concern. Scott should get the majority of the carries in Benson's absence, and Brian Leonard will continue to be the third-down back whose best asset is in the receiving department (20 catches). I wouldn't consider Larry Johnson, who was unproductive with the Chiefs before signing with the Bengals this week.

Turner's top backup would normally be the explosive Jerious Norwood, but the latter has missed the last four games with a hip injury and is listed as questionable this week. Norwood should play, but he likely will be the backup to Snelling, who had 93 total yards last week.

-- Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton will be a game-time decision because of a sprained ankle, but he hasn't practiced all week and Sunday's opponent, the Chargers, rank 11th against the pass. Keep him on your bench. Same goes for Chris Simms, should he get the call instead of Orton.

-- Both Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook will sit because of concussions, with Ladell Betts and impressive rookie LeSean McCoy starting in their place in Washington and Philadelphia, respectively.

-- Seahawks running back Julius Jones won't play because of a bruised lung, clearing the way for Forsett to get the bulk of the carries for the second straight week. The rookie has 10 catches in his last two games and had 149 total yards in Week 10.

-- Buccaneers receiver Antonio Bryant is expected to return from a two-week absence on Sunday, but his knee has been bothering him all year and Tampa's franchise player has yet to record more than 62 yards receiving in a game this season. He's a No. 4 wideout at best against the Saints, who have more than twice as many interceptions (17) as TD passes allowed (eight).

On to the start-and-sit lists ...

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Eli Manning, QB, Giants, vs. Falcons: He has only one two-touchdown game since Week 6 and hasn’t thrown for more than 243 yards in his last five games, but I’d expect Peyton’s little brother to meet both those numbers against the Falcons’ 28th-ranked pass defense.

-- Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals, at Raiders: The rookie’s biggest impact thus far has been on special teams. With Cedric Benson hobbled by an injured hip, this Division II product should have a career day vs. the Raiders, who rank 29th vs. the run and have given up 14 touchdowns on the ground.

-- Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals, at Rams: With three touchdowns in his last four games and 29 carries for 157 yards in his last two, he’s slowly taking the starting job from Tim Hightower. The former Buckeye should have his best performance yet vs. the Rams, who rank 28th stopping the run and have yielded 13 rushing TDs.

-- LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles, at Bears: Brian Westbrook’s concussion issues might make McCoy a starter the rest of the season, and he deserves to be in your lineup, especially in point-per-reception leagues. The Bears have the league’s 12th-worst run defense.

-- Kevin Smith, RB, Lions, vs. Browns: He’s been very disappointing (zero touchdowns in his last five contests and no games with more than 67 rushing yards since Week 3), but the Browns have a knack for ending opposing players’ slumps. Cleveland ranks 30th against the run and has allowed 13 rushing TDs.

More matchups I like:


Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals, at Raiders; Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks, at Vikings; Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys, vs. Redskins; Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants, vs. Falcons; Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings, vs. Seahawks; Steve Breaston, WR, Cardinals, at Rams; Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles, at Bears

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

The all-QB edition ...

-- Matt Ryan, Falcons, at Giants: Sophomore slump? Ryan has thrown 10 interceptions in his last five games (with 1,031 yards and seven TDs in that span), and he’s been picked off two times or more in four of his last six games. The Giants own the league’s second-best pass defense, but have given up 15 TDs through the air.

-- Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Colts: Another second-year QB who started fast and has slowed considerably, Flacco hasn’t thrown for a touchdown in his last two games and has only 525 yards in his last three. The Colts are in the middle of the pack vs. the pass (No. 16), but have three more interceptions (10) than TD passes allowed (seven).

-- Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Eagles: He has thrown 17 interceptions on the season and 12 in his last five games. The Eagles (No. 10 vs. the pass) have picked off 15 passes.

More matchups I don’t like:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs, vs. Steelers; Santana Moss, WR, Redskins, at Cowboys; Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys, vs. Redskins; Chris Chambers, WR, Chiefs, vs. Steelers

Last week

The start list had two hits in Sidney Rice (seven catches for 201 yards) and Jonathan Stewart (82 yards rushing, two touchdowns) and two decent plays in Laurence Maroney (31 yards rushing, one TD, two catches for 15 yards) and Knowshon Moreno (97 yards rushing, two catches).

The lone dud on the list was Percy Harvin, who had three catches for 53 yards and rushed for 7 yards.

The sit list had two good calls in Carson Palmer (178 yards passing, no touchdowns and no interceptions) and Brian Westbrook (28 yards rushing, two catches for 26 yards). The third item on the list was any Raiders running back, which was good in the case of Darren McFadden (11 yards rushing), not so good if you sat Justin Fargas (41 yards rushing, one TD) and terrible if you actually would have considered playing Michael Bush (119 yards rushing).

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Drew Brees, Saints, at Buccaneers (No. 15 vs. the pass)
2. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, at Rams (No. 25)
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, vs. 49ers (No. 29)
4. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Jets (No. 3)
5. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Chiefs (No. 24)
6. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Titans (No. 31)
7. Peyton Manning, Colts, at Ravens (No. 13)
8. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. Seahawks (No. 22)
9. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Redskins (No. 28)
10. Eli Manning, Giants, vs. Falcons (No. 28)
11. Philip Rivers, Chargers, at Broncos (No. 5)
12. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, at Bears (No. 8)
13. Carson Palmer, Bengals, at Raiders (No. 14)
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, at Vikings (No. 23)
15. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Eagles (No. 10)
16. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Colts (No. 16)
17. Matt Ryan, Falcons, at Giants (No. 2)
18. David Garrard, Jaguars, vs. Bills (No. 9)
19. Vince Young, Titans, at Texans (No. 17)
20. Jason Campbell, Redskins, at Cowboys (No. 18)

RUNNING BACKS
1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, vs. Bills (No. 32 vs. the run)
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. Seahawks (No. 11)
3. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Texans (tied for No. 14)
4. Ray Rice, Ravens, vs. Colts (tied for No. 14)
5. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, at Chiefs (No. 27)
6. Steven Jackson, Rams, vs. Cardinals (No. 8)
7. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Packers (No. 4)
8. Matt Forte, Bears, vs. Eagles (No. 9)
9. Bernard Scott, Bengals, at Raiders (No. 29)
10. Thomas Jones, Jets, at Patriots (No. 17)
11. Joseph Addai, Colts, at Ravens (No. 5)
12. Beanie Wells, Cardinals, at Rams (No. 28)
13. Pierre Thomas, Saints, at Buccaneers (No. 31)
14. Marion Barber, Cowboys, vs. Redskins (No. 24)
15. Ryan Grant, Packers, vs. 49ers (No. 3)
16. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, vs. Falcons (No. 26)
17. LeSean McCoy, Eagles, at Bears (No. 21)
18. Kevin Smith, Lions, vs. Browns (No. 30)
19. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Broncos (No. 12)
20. Ladell Betts, Redskins, at Cowboys (No. 10)
21. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, vs. Chargers (No. 23)
22. Jason Snelling, Falcons, at Giants (No. 13)
23. Laurence Maroney, Patriots, vs. Jets (No. 18)
24. Justin Forsett, Seahawks, at Vikings (No. 6)

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, at Rams (No. 25 vs. the pass)
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts, at Ravens (No. 13)
3. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Jets (No. 3)
4. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Titans (No. 31)
5. Steve Smith, Giants, vs. Falcons (No. 28)
6. Marques Colston, Saints, at Buccaneers (No. 15)
7. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, at Rams (No. 25)
8. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Chiefs (No. 24)
9. Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Browns (tied for No. 19)
10. Roddy White, Falcons, at Giants (No. 2)
11. Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Jets (No. 3)
12. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, vs. Chargers (No. 11)
13. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, at Raiders (No. 14)
14. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Broncos (No. 5)
15. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, at Bears (No. 8)
16. Donald Driver, Packers, vs. 49ers (No. 29)
17. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, at Vikings (No. 23)
18. Greg Jennings, Packers, vs. 49ers (No. 29)
19. Sidney Rice, Vikings, vs. Seahawks (No. 22)
20. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Chiefs (No. 24)
21. Miles Austin, Cowboys, vs. Redskins (No. 1)
22. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Colts (No. 16)
23. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, vs. Bills (No. 9)
24. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, at Vikings (No. 23)
25. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles, at Bears (No. 8)
26. Mario Manningham, Giants, vs. Falcons (No. 26)
27. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, at Packers (No. 6)
28. Steve Breaston, Cardinals, at Rams (No. 28)
29. Devin Hester, Bears, vs. Eagles (No. 10)
30. Percy Harvin, Vikings, vs. Seahawks (No. 22)
31. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, at Patriots (No. 7)
32. Braylon Edwards, Jets, at Patriots (No. 7)
33. Terrell Owens, Bills, at Jaguars (No. 26)
34. Lee Evans, Bills, at Jaguars (No. 26)
35. Laveranues Coles, Bengals, at Raiders (No. 14)
36. Donnie Avery, Rams, vs. Cardinals (No. 30)

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: Has your team been affected by the injuries to running backs Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Michael Turner, Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook or Julius Jones? I break down the values of their backups here. The link also includes this week audiocast with Sports Editor Mark Podolski and I.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Fantasy football: Injury updates, start-and-sit advice, expanded playlist and more for Week 8

The Saturday injury roundup has become a weekly tradition -- think somewhere below "The Office" and "Modern Family" and a notch or two above the Derek Anderson sub-50 passer rating. Let's get to it:

-- Eagles running back Brian Westbrook, who is recovering from a concussion, is expected to be a game-time decision. The guess here is he'll sit, making rookie LeSean McCoy a decent No. 2 running back Sunday against the Giants, who have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns.

-- Another rookie runner, the Colts' Donald Brown, is doubtful with a shoulder injury. That should lead to more work for starter Joseph Addai. Chad Simpson is expected to serve as Addai's backup, but shouldn't be much of a fantasy factor.

-- Two of the game's best receivers, the Texans' Andre Johnson (lung contusion) and the Colts' Reggie Wayne (groin injury), are expected to play. Both practiced Friday.

-- The news isn't as promising for Lions wideout Calvin Johnson, who has battled a knee injury for the last few weeks. Coach Jim Schwartz told reporters he expected Johnson to play, but the receiver didn't sound so optimistic. It's expected to be a game-time decision, and if Johnson sits, Dennis Northcutt should be considered a low-end No. 3 receiver, especially in PPR leagues.

-- Cardinals wideout Anquan Boldin (ankle injury) and Jets receiver Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) are both listed as questionable, and both are expected to play.

-- Vikings receiver Bernard Berrian (hamstring) should be a game-time decision. If Berrian sits against the Packers, Percy Harvin's value as a No. 3 wideout increases.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- David Garrard, QB, Jaguars, at Titans:
He’s on pace to throw for 3,904 yards and run for 373, but he isn’t a regular starter because of his poor TD total (five). Garrard should reach the end zone a couple times against the league’s worst pass defense. The Titans have yielded a league-high 19 TD tosses.

-- Matt Forte, RB, Bears, vs. Browns: He’s been one of fantasy’s biggest busts this season, one who can no longer be counted on every week. But you have to play Forte, who has rushed for only 318 yards with a norm of 3.5 yards per carry, against the Browns’ No. 31 run defense.

-- LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers, vs. Raiders: Speaking of busts, L.T. has 41 carries for 141 yards (3.4) in two games since the Chargers’ bye. I’d expect him to show some flashes of his old self (not his current old self) against the Raiders, who rank 30th vs. the run and have allowed 11 rushing TDs.

-- Torry Holt, WR, Jaguars, at Titans: He has 12 catches for 196 yards in his last two games, and he might even score for the first time all year vs. the aforementioned Titans pass defense.

-- Devin Hester, WR, Bears, vs. Browns:
He has 14 receptions for 184 yards and a TD in his last two games, and the Browns rank 24th vs. the pass.

More matchups I like:


Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills, vs. Panthers; LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles, vs. Giants; Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins, at Jets; Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals, vs. Panthers; Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, RBs, Saints, vs. Falcons; Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings, at Packers; Austin Collie, WR, Colts, vs. 49ers; Donnie Avery, WR, Rams, at Lions; Lee Evans, WR, Bills, vs. Texans

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Broncos: He’s thrown for 1,674 yards and 11 touchdowns while developing into a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but if you have a productive No. 2 QB, you should play him. The Broncos have twice as many interceptions (six) as touchdown passes allowed (three), and they’ve sacked the opposing passer 21 times.

-- Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles, vs. Giants:
He’s thrown only one TD pass in his last two games, and the Giants’ No. 2 pass defense is giving up just 165 yards through the air per contest.

-- Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants, at Eagles:
He has been playing with a cracked bone on the outside of his right foot, and it’s been evident in the last two games, during which Bradshaw has only 75 total yards. The Eagles are the league’s 11th-best run defense.

More matchups I don’t like:


Brett Favre, QB, Vikings, at Packers; Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks, at Cowboys; Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns, at Bears

Last week

All five members of the start list had at least one touchdown, led by surprising stud Miles Austin (six catches for 171 yards and two scores). Austin Collie (four receptions for 36 yards and a TD), Laurence Maroney (43 yards rushing, one TD) and Marshawn Lynch (40 yards rushing, one TD, one catch) were decent starts. Eli Manning (243 yards passing, one TD and three interceptions) was not.

The sit list had one miss in Brandon Jacobs (76 yards rushing, one TD and two catches for 11 yards) and two hits in Brett Favre (334 yards passing, but zero TDs and one pick) and Cadillac Williams (29 yards rushing and two catches for 28 yards).

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Drew Brees, Saints, vs. Falcons (No. 26 vs. the pass)
2. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. 49ers (No. 21)
3. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Browns (No. 24)
4. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, vs. Vikings (No. 20)
5. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Seahawks (tied for No. 16)
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Raiders (No. 12)
7. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. Panthers (No. 1)
8. Matt Schaub, Texans, at Bills (No. 10)
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons, at Saints (No. 14)
10. Kyle Orton, Broncos, at Ravens (No. 23)
11. Eli Manning, Giants, at Eagles (No. 9)
12. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, vs. Giants (No. 2)
13. David Garrard, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 32)
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, at Cowboys (No. 22)
15. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Broncos (No. 8)
16. Brett Favre, Vikings, at Packers (No. 4)
17. Mark Sanchez, Jets, vs. Dolphins (No. 19)
18. Marc Bulger, Rams, at Lions (No. 30)
19. Matthew Stafford, Lions, vs. Rams (No. 25)
20. Chad Henne, Dolphins, at Jets (No. 7)

RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, at Packers (No. 12 vs. the run)
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at Titans (No. 9)
3. Steven Jackson, Rams, at Lions (No. 20)
4. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. 49ers (No. 6)
5. Michael Turner, Falcons, at Saints (No. 8)
6. Matt Forte, Bears, vs. Browns (No. 31)
7. Kevin Smith, Lions, vs. Rams (No. 27)
8. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Cardinals (No. 1)
9. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Colts (No. 19)
10. Thomas Jones, Jets, vs. Dolphins (No. 4)
11. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, at Jets (No. 22)
12. Steve Slaton, Texans, at Bills (No. 32)
13. Ray Rice, Ravens, vs. Broncos (No. 3)
14. Chris Johnson, Titans, vs. Jaguars (No. 13)
15. Ryan Grant, Packers, vs. Vikings (No. 10)
16. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, vs. Raiders (No. 30)
17. Marion Barber, Cowboys, vs. Seahawks (No. 14)
18. Marshawn Lynch, Bills, vs. Texans (No. 21)
19. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, at Eagles (No. 11)
20. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, at Ravens (No. 7)
21. LeSean McCoy, Eagles, vs. Giants (No. 15)
22. Ricky Williams, Dolphins, at Jets (No. 22)
23. Pierre Thomas, Saints, vs. Falcons (No. 23)
24. Beanie Wells, Cardinals, vs. Panthers (No. 26)

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. Panthers (No. 1 vs. the pass)
2. Marques Colston, Saints, vs. Falcons (No. 26)
3. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Ravens (No. 23)
4. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, vs. Raiders (No. 12)
5. Miles Austin, Cowboys, vs. Seahawks (tied for No. 16)
6. Roddy White, Falcons, at Saints (No. 14)
7. Andre Johnson, Texans, at Bills (No. 10)
8. Donald Driver, Packers, vs. Vikings (No. 20)
9. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Cardinals (No. 29)
10. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, at Titans (No. 32)
11. x-Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. 49ers (No. 21)
12. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Giants (No. 2)
13. Greg Jennings, Packers, vs. Vikings (No. 20)
14. Steve Smith, Giants, at Eagles (No. 9)
15. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, at Cowboys (No. 22)
16. x-Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Rams (No. 25)
17. x-Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. Panthers (No. 1)
18. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Broncos (No. 8)
19. Devin Hester, Bears, vs. Browns (No. 24)
20. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, at Cowboys (No. 22)
21. Torry Holt, Jaguars, at Titans (No. 32)
22. Sidney Rice, Vikings, at Packers (No. 4)
23. Austin Collie, Colts, vs. 49ers (No. 21)
24. Eddie Royal, Broncos, at Ravens (No. 23)
25. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Eagles (No. 9)
26. Terrell Owens, Bills, vs. Texans (No. 18)
27. Braylon Edwards, Jets, vs. Dolphins (No. 19)
28. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, at Colts (No. 6)
29. Hakeem Nicks, at Eagles (No. 9)
30. Lance Moore, Saints, at Falcons (No. 26)
31. Donnie Avery, Rams, at Lions (No. 30)
32. Lee Evans, Bills, vs. Texans (No. 18)
33. Steve Breaston, Cardinals, vs. Panthers (No. 1)
34. Percy Harvin, Vikings, at Packers (No. 4)
35. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles, vs. Giants (No. 2)
36. x-Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, vs. Dolphins (No. 19)
x-Make sure Wayne, Calvin Johnson, Boldin and Cotchery are active prior to kickoff.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: For a breakdown of the fantasy values of running backs Shonn Greene and Jamaal Charles, click here. The link also includes our weekly audiocast.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 8

Beanie Wells, like Rashard Mendenhall before him, might be one who got away -- a running back you released because he wasn't producing and you needed the roster space due to bye-week restrictions.

But if you had Week 7 in your When Will A Healthy (For Now) Beanie Show Signs Of Life, Ticking Owner X Off In the Process office pool (what, you don't have one?), you, like the guy who selected Ray Rice in the sixth round, followed by Ben Roethlisberger in the seventh, are a winner.

In his last two games, Wells has 30 touches (26 rushes and four receptions) -- six more than his total for the Cardinals' first four games. The former Buckeye had 14 carries for 67 yards last week -- to starter Tim Hightower's 4-for-9 effort. Coach Ken Whisenhunt said the latter is still his starter, but with a two-year average of 2.9 yards per carry and a season total of 167 yards rushing, you have to figure the job will be Wells' soon.

Wells should be considered a low-end No. 2 running back this week, since six teams are on a bye and the Cardinals will play host to the Panthers, who rank 26th against the run. Even better: Arizona's next five opponents are Carolina, Chicago (No. 18 vs. the run), Seattle (No. 14), St. Louis (No. 27) and Tennessee (No. 9). The five teams have allowed a combined 33 rushing touchdowns in 31 games.

Hightower, who has 31 catches for 239 yards, is only an asset in point-per-reception leagues. Soon, he might not be anything more than a No. 4 fantasy back.

Marching to a familiar beat: Another team with a favorable upcoming schedule and a confusing running-back situation is the undefeated Saints, who are so prolific and so generous the only fantasy givens are quarterback Drew Brees and receiver Marques Colston.

In the last two weeks, running back Mike Bell has 27 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown, including a 12-for-80 effort last week. Pierre Thomas -- who ran for 212 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4, when Bell was out because of a knee injury -- has 23 carries for 102 yards in that two-game span. Then there's Reggie Bush, who no longer gets more than seven or eight touches per contest, but has scored a TD in each of his last two games.

Since the Saints are averaging 427.3 total yards and 39.7 points per game, I'd expect them to stick with what works, which is dividing the majority of the carries between Bell and Thomas, with Bush getting a handful, along with a few catches.

All of which makes Bell and Thomas no better than a No. 3 running back, but the pair will be enticing the next four weeks, when New Orleans faces Atlanta (No. 19 vs. the run), Carolina (No. 26), St. Louis (No. 27) and Tampa Bay (No. 29). Both can be considered low-end No. 2 backs if bye weeks have wreaked their usual havoc on your roster.

LeChange in Philly: Brian Westbrook missed practiced again Thursday, and it seems more and more likely the Eagles running back will sit out Sunday's game against the Giants, who, surprisingly, have allowed more rushing touchdowns (10) than all but the Raiders and Rams this season. If Westbrook sits, rookie LeSean McCoy can be counted on to be a No. 2 back, especially in PPR leagues. When Westbrook missed the Eagles' 34-14 win over the Chiefs in Week 3, McCoy had 20 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown.

Start 'em

-- Sidney Rice, not Bernard Berrian or Percy Harvin, is the Vikings' most productive receiver. He has 33 catches for 545 yards and two TDs in seven games, and 16 catches for 312 yards in his last two. He should now be considered an every-week regular.

-- No longer just a return specialist (sorry, Josh Cribbs), the Bears' Devin Hester has 14 catches for 184 yards and a TD in his last two games. Up this week: the Browns, who rank 28th vs. the pass and No. 32 overall.

Sit 'em

-- Braylon Edwards is back to his old tricks in his new home. Aftter a productive first game with the Jets (a five-catch, 64-yard, one-TD performance at Miami on "Monday Night Football"), the former Browns wideout has four receptions for 54 yards and zero TDs the last two weeks. I can only come up with two reasons to play him this week: the opponent again is Miami, and with six teams off, you probably have to start the butterfingered one.

-- Terrell Owens has been even more quiet on the fantasy front than in the throwing-his-quarterback-under-the-bus department this season. In his first season with the Bills, T.O. has yet to have more than 60 yards receiving in a game, he has one TD all season and none in his last five contests. Has he lost a step? Should he be blasting Ryan Fitzpatrick? Whatever the answer, Owens is a No. 3 receiver only in weeks in which byes are a factor.

Drop 'em

If you need the roster space, it's time to bid adieu to Browns running back Jamal Lewis (zero touchdowns, only one game with more than 57 rushing yards), Jets tight end Dustin Keller (three catches for 42 yards in his last three games), Cowboys running back Tashard Choice (who's not a factor in Dallas' backfield as long as both Marion Barber and Felix Jones are healthy) and Dolphins receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (five catches for 77 yards and a TD in his last four games).

On deck: Saturday, we'll look at the projected impact of a pair of young running backs who will now play prominent roles -- the Jets' Shonn Greene and the Chiefs' Jamaal Charles. The weekly column for the print editions will be posted on the Sports section of the News-Herald's Web site, and the link will also include our weekly audiocast. Saturday, we'll also have the "big blog," with start-and-sit advice, injury updates and an expanded playlist. That will be published in this space and on the N-H's Sports site.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit, expanded playlist and more for Week 3

Before we get to the start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist, here are a few injury notes:

-- The assumption here is Marion Barber is going to sit Monday night against the Panthers because of a quadriceps injury. If that's the case, electric Cowboys second-year back Julius Jones should be a quality play against a Carolina defense that is tied for 27th in the league in stopping the run, allowing 168 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. In eight career games, Jones, a first-round pick in 2008, has 43 carries for 384 yards (8.9 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns.

-- Expect Brian Westbrook's status to be announced about 15 minutes before kickoff Sunday. The Eagles back missed practice all week because of an ankle injury (stop if you've heard that before), but, unlike most players, that's never been a true indication that he won't play when it matters. The Eagles have a bye next week and might be more inclined to rest Westbrook, which would clear the way for rookie LeSean McCoy. Should that happen, McCoy is a good start, especially in point-per-reception leagues, vs. the Chiefs, who rank 21st against the run.

-- Mike Bell is out this week because of a knee injury, which is welcome news for Pierre Thomas owners. The latter, who missed the Saints' first game because of a knee injury and played sparingly in Week 2, should get the majority of the carries Sunday against the Bills. Reggie Bush is a worthwhile play in PPR leagues, but likely won't be much of a help in yardage- and TD-heavy formats.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Eli Manning, QB, Giants, at Buccaneers:
He’s thrown for 586 yards and three touchdowns with a passer rating of 103.2. The Buccaneers rank 27th against the pass and have allowed the second-most TD throws in the league (five).

-- Trent Edwards, QB, Bills, vs. Saints:
He’s thrown for more than 200 yards and two scores in each of Buffalo’s first two games, and the Saints rank 29th vs. the pass.

-- Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns: With four TDs, 4.9 yards per carry and six receptions, he’s one of the early season surprises. The Browns, as usual, can’t stop the run (No. 31, a league-high five rushing scores allowed).

-- Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers, vs. Dolphins: With LaDainian Tomlinson sitting for a second straight week, the explosive Sproles should have a productive game against a defense that has struggled mightily against the pass. Sproles has only 19 carries for 49 yards, but has thrived as a receiver, with 12 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown. He has scored a TD in each of the Chargers' first two games.

-- Devery Henderson, WR, Saints, at Bills: He has eight receptions for 174 yards, a 21.8-yard average that resembles his career norm of 21.6. With Lance Moore out because of a hamstring injury, Henderson will start against a Bills defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has given up five TD throws in two games.

More matchups I like:


Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Browns; Kevin Kolb, QB, Eagles, vs. Chiefs; David Garrard, QB, Jaguars, at Texans; Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints, at Bills; Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys, vs. Panthers; Ray Rice, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns; Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals, vs. Colts; Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers, vs. Giants

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Thomas Jones, RB, Jets, vs. Titans:
He and Leon Washington both have 35 touches in two games, which limits Jones’ value significantly. The Titans rank second against the run, are giving up only 1.9 yards per carry and have yet to yield a touchdown on the ground.

-- Joseph Addai, RB, Colts, at Cardinals: This former first-round fantasy pick has only 116 total yards in two games and is being outplayed by rookie Donald Brown. The Cardinals have been surprisingly effective at stopping the run (No. 5 with 113 yards; Arizona is allowing only 2.5 yards per carry).

-- Lee Evans, WR, Bills, vs. Saints: New Orleans is very generous to opposing passing games, but with T.O. in the fold, Evans (four receptions for 57 yards) is no longer a fantasy starter.

More matchups I don’t like:


Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, at Patriots; Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals, vs. Steelers; Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs, at Eagles; Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks, vs. Bears

Last week

The start list had three productive players -- Fred Jackson (163 yards rushing, six catches for 25 yards), Ben Roethlisberger (221 yards passing, one TD, one interception, one rushing TD) and Brett Favre (155 yards passing, two touchdowns and no interceptions) -- and two duds. Nate Burleson (46 yards receiving) and Isaac Bruce (35) both had four catches and no scores.

On the sit list, Kevin Smith (83 yards rushing, two catches for 10 yards, no TDs) was a good call, but Matt Schaub (357 yards and four touchdown passes) and Jay Cutler (236 yards and two TD passes) certainly were not.

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS

1. Drew Brees, Saints, at Bills (No. 31 vs. the pass)

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

3. Peyton Manning, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

4. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 23)

5. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Falcons (No. 17)

6. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

7. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 26)

8. Jay Cutler, Bears, at Seahawks (No. 2)

9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

10. Eli Manning, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

11. Trent Edwards, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 29)

12. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 3)

13. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 7)

14. Matt Ryan, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 6)

15. Kevin Kolb, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 14)

16. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 19)

17. David Garrard, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 22)

18. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 20)

19. Matt Cassel, Chiefs, at Eagles (No. 12)

20. Kyle Orton, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 20)

RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 3 vs. the run)

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 32)

3. Matt Forte, Bears, at Seahawks (No. 26)

4. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Jets (No. 6)

5. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Cowboys (No. 23)

6. Michael Turner, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 14)

7. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

8. Steven Jackson, Rams, vs. Packers (No. 18)

9. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Vikings (No. 15)

10. Steve Slaton, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 13)

11. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

12. Darren Sproles, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 7)

13. Fred Jackson, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 4)

14. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, at Chargers (No. 24)

15. y-Felix Jones, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 27)

16. Willis McGahee, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 31)

17. x-Clinton Portis, Redskins, at Lions (No. 22)

18. z-Brian Westbrook, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 21)

19. Pierre Thomas, Saints, at Bills (No. 8)

20. Kevin Smith, Lions, vs. Redskins (No. 17)

21. Darren McFadden, Raiders, vs. Broncos (No. 10)

22. Tim Hightower, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 30)

23. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers, vs. Giants (No. 27)

24. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 8)

x-This is assuming Marion Barber sits with a quad injury. If Barber is active, he is a decent play against the Panthers. y-Portis missed practice Friday because of an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. He is expected to play, but if he doesn't, backup Ladell Betts is a decent start against the Lions. z-Make sure Westbrook (ankle injury) is active. If he is out, rookie LeSean McCoy is a good start.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Jaguars (No. 26 vs. the pass)

2. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Falcons (No. 17)

3. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

4. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

5. Marques Colston, Saints, at Bills (No. 31)

6. Reggie Wayne, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

7. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, vs. Dolphins (No. 23)

8. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Cowboys (No. 3)

9. Steve Smith, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

10. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

11. Roddy White, Falcons, at Patriots (No. 6)

12. Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Redskins (No. 10)

13. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Buccaneers (No. 27)

14. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Bengals (No. 16)

15. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. Colts (No. 1)

16. x-Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Falcons

17. Terrell Owens, Bills, vs. Saints (No. 29)

18. Chad Ochocino, Bengals, vs. Steelers (No. 19)

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. Bears (No. 8)

20. Donald Driver, Packers, at Rams (No. 25)

21. Eddie Royal, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 10)

22. Braylon Edwards, Browns, at Ravens (No. 28)

23. Devery Henderson, Saints, at Bills (No. 31)

24. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Browns (No. 7)

25. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Raiders (No. 10)

26. y-Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, at Eagles (No. 12)

27. Roy Williams, Cowboys, vs. Panthers (No. 30)

28. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, vs. Titans (No. 32)

29. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins, at Chargers (No. 13)

30. z-DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Chiefs (No. 14)

31. Santana Moss, Redskins, at Lions (No. 24)

32. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, vs. 49ers (No. 20)

33. Laurent Robinson, Rams, vs Packers (No. 15)

34. Torry Holt, Jaguars, at Texans (No. 22)

35. Justin Gage, Titans, at Jets (No. 9)

36. Pierre Garcon, Colts, at Cardinals (No. 18)

x-Make sure Welker (knee) is active; y-Same goes for Bowe, who is questionable because of a hamstring injury; z-Jackson (groin injury) is probable.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: For my breakdown of struggling early draft picks Matt Forte, Steve Slaton and Steven Jackson, including our weekly audiocast, click here. ... We will have another live chat with readers on Thursday at 7 p.m. Go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the live fantasy football chat at the top of the page.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,