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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

2012 fantasy football rankings: Running backs

Once the unquestioned king of fantasy football positions, the 2012 crop of running backs has three hammers -- Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy -- then a lot of questions.

-- Will Maurice Jones-Drew's holdout end before your draft?

-- Where do you draft former no-doubt-about-it No. 1 overall fantasy pick Adrian Peterson, who is recovering from a torn ACL?

-- Can you trust Chris Johnson after last year's holdout/four-TDs-in-16-games debacle?

-- Is the injury-prone Ryan Mathews going to be as good as everyone seems to think he will be now that goal-line vulture Mike Tolbert has left town?

-- Will Matt Forte be as good now that Michael Bush could serve as the Bears' goal-line vulture?

-- Can Darren McFadden stay healthy?

-- Should you be concerned that Trent Richardson is already banged up?

-- Can DeMarco Murray sustain his 2011 rookie success over a full season?

You get the idea.

On to our second set of rankings for 2012, which reflects updates we made Aug. 12:

Rank, player, team (bye week): GP, Rushing yards-Avg-TD, Receptions-Yards-TD
1. Arian Foster, Hou (8): 13, 1,224-4.4-10, 53-617-2
2. Ray Rice, Bal (8): 16, 1,364-4.7-12, 76-704-3
3. LeSean McCoy, Phi (7): 15, 1,309-4.8-17, 48-315-3
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac (6): 16, 1,606-4.7-8, 43-374-3
5. Chris Johnson, Ten (11): 16, 1,047-4.0-4, 57-418-0
6. Matt Forte, Chi (6): 12, 997-4.9-3, 52-490-1
7. Darren McFadden, Oak (5): 7, 614-5.4-4, 19-154-1
8. DeMarco Murray, Dal (5): 13, 897-5.5-2, 26-183-0
9. Steven Jackson, StL (9): 15, 1,145-4.4-5, 42-333-1
10. Ryan Mathews, SD (7): 14, 1,091-4.9-6, 50-455-0
11. Adrian Peterson, Min (11): 12, 970-4.7-12, 18-139-1
12. Marshawn Lynch, Sea (11): 15, 1,204-4.2-12, 28-212-1
13. Fred Jackson, Buf (8): 10, 934-5.5-6, 39-442-0
14. Michael Turner, Atl (7): 16, 1,340-4.5-11, 17-168-0
15. Frank Gore, SF (9): 16, 1,211-4.3-8, 17-114-0
16. Jamaal Charles, KC (7): 2, 83-6.9-0, 5-9-1
17. Trent Richardson, Cle (10): Rookie
18. Darren Sproles, NO (6): 16, 603-6.9-2, 86-710-7
19. Shonn Greene, NYJ (9): 16, 1,054-4.2-6, 30-211-0
20. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (11): 12, 659-3.9-9, 34-267-2
21. Reggie Bush, Mia (7): 15, 1,086-5.0-6, 43-296-1
22. Isaac Redman, Pit (4): 16, 479-4.4-3, 18-78-0
23. Willis McGahee, Den (7): 15, 1,199-4.8-4, 12-51-1
24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin (8): 16, 667-3.7-11, 9-159-0
25. Doug Martin, TB (5): Rookie
26. Stevan Ridley, NE (9): 16, 421-5.1-1, 3-13-0
27. Jonathan Stewart, Car (6): 16, 761-5.4-4, 47-413-1
28. Beanie Wells, Ari (10): 14, 1,047-4.3-10, 10-52-0
29. Roy Helu, Was (10): 15, 640-4.2-2, 49-379-1
30. DeAngelo Williams, Car (6): 16, 836-5.4-7, 16-135-0
31. Ben Tate, Hou (8): 15, 942-5.4-4, 13-98-0
32. Donald Brown, Ind (4): 16, 645-4.8-5, 16-86-0
33. Peyton Hillis, KC (7): 10, 587-3.6-3, 22-130-0
34. C.J. Spiller, Buf (8): 16, 561-5.2-4, 39-269-2
35. Toby Gerhart, Min (11): 16, 531-4.9-1, 23-190-3
36. Mark Ingram, NO (6): 10, 474-3.9-5, 11-46-0
37. James Starks, GB (10): 13, 578-4.3-1, 29-216-0
38. Kevin Smith, Det (5): 7, 356-4.9-4, 22-179-3
39. Felix Jones, Dal (5): 12, 575-4.5-1, 33-221-0
40. Michael Bush, Chi (6): 16, 997-3.8-7, 37-418-1
41. Evan Royster, Was (10): 6, 328-5.9-0, 9-68-0
42. Daniel Thomas, Mia (7): 13, 581-3.5-0, 12-72-1
43. LeGarrette Blount, TB (5): 14, 781-4.2-5, 15-148-0
44. Jahvid Best, Det (5): 6, 390-4.6-2, 27-287-1
45. David Wilson, NYG (11): Rookie
46. Ryan Williams, Ari (10): Didn't play
47. Ronnie Brown, SD (7): 16, 136-3.2-1, 0-0-0
48. Mike Goodson, Oak (5): 16, 452-4.4-3, 1-4-0
49. Shane Vereen, NE (9): 5, 57-3.8-1, 0-0-0
50. Bernard Scott, Cin (8): 16, 380-3.4-3, 13-38-0

NOTE: All statistics are from the 2011 season.

QUICK SLANTS: In the last two seasons, Foster has rushed for 2,840 rush yards, caught 119 passes for 1,221 yards and scored 30 total TDs in 29 games. … Rice’s 15 TDs in 2011 were one more than he had combined in otherwise productive 2010 and ’09 seasons. … McCoy’s TDs were way up (from nine in 2010 to 20 last season), and his receiving numbers were significantly down (from 78 catches for 592 yards in 2010). … Jones-Drew had 30 total TDs in 2008 and ’09, but has averaged nine TDs in the last two years. … In 2009 and ’10, Johnson had 28 total TDs. … The Rams' Jackson has 60 total TDs in 115 career games, and 16 were in 2006. … Lynch had 24 TDs in his first five NFL seasons. … McFadden has missed 19 games in four years. … Turner has 50 rushing TDs in 59 games in four seasons with the Falcons. … Gore had 13 TDs in 14 games in 2009. He has 39 total TDs in the other 86 contests in which he has played in his career. ... Reggie Bush had never run for more than 581 yards in his first five NFL seasons. … In the last two games of the Steelers' 2011 season, including a postseason loss at Denver, Redman had 213 yards rushing, one TD and five catches for 39 yards. … Green-Ellis has 24 TDs the last two years. … The Panthers' Stewart had 21 TDs in his first two seasons and has eight in the last two. … DeAngelo Williams had 20 TDs in 16 contests in 2008. He has 22 total TDs in the other 64 games in which he has played. … Hillis had 13 total TDs, 1,654 total yards and 61 catches with the Browns in 2010.

PREVIOUS RANKINGS: Quarterbacks

NEXT: Wide receivers

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Sunday, December 4, 2011

Fantasy football: Matt Forte injury analysis

If you subscribe to the fantasy handcuff rule -- always draft your stud running back's backup -- Marion Barber tests that theory like no one else.

Barber is a big name for a backup -- he had a combined 28 touchdowns in 2006 and '07, and was a productive fantasy starter at times during his tenure with the Cowboys.

He's also now a 28-year-old with a lot of wear on his tires. At this point in his career, he's a touchdown-or-bust fantasy play in a very deep league.

If you're a Matt Forte owner, Barber might also be your desperation start in Week 14, the beginning of the postseason in most fantasy leagues.

By now, you probably know Forte suffered a knee injury Sunday during the Bears' loss to the Chiefs. Fox's Jay Glazer reported it was a sprained MCL that could sideline the fantasy stud 2 to 4 weeks.

Translation: If you own Forte and qualified for the playoffs in your league, you're probably going to have to attempt to win a title without him.

If you didn't handcuff Forte with Barber -- I wouldn't have made the move, since I don't believe Barber is worth a roster spot in most leagues, and he's certainly not worth holding on to for 13 weeks unless your league is very generous with roster sizes -- don't get too excited about the possibility of acquiring the former Cowboy on the waiver wire Tuesday.

Barber is averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season. Yes, he has scored five touchdowns in nine games, but he is of almost no value in the passing game (he has three receptions for 18 yards this year), and if he doesn't score, he likely will get you all of four or five points.

The Bears' schedule the next three weeks isn't favorable, either.

In Week 14, Chicago plays at Denver, which entered this week ranked 19th defending the run, but has allowed only five TDs on the ground in 12 games.

In Week 15, the Bears will play host to the Seahawks (No. 12 vs. the run entering this week), and in Week 16, they play at the Packers (No. 13 vs. the run). In the latter battle, Barber would be lucky to get more than 12 to 15 carries, unless the 12-0 Packers suffer a loss prior to the game and have nothing to play for.

Injuries can force us to make lineup decisions we know aren't favorable. So if you're starting Barber in Week 14, I understand.

What I wouldn't understand would be if you thought it was anything but a lineup liability.

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Thursday, February 17, 2011

Fantasy football: Top keepers for 2011, RBs

We apologize for the delay in posts between the top quarterback keepers and this breakdown of the running backs.

I'd like to place all the blame on the NFL's owners and players' union, who, the more they speak, the more they make us believe we could be looking at a nine-week fantasy season in 2011. (That should be a fun scheduling dilemma for league commissioners everywhere.)

Without further delay, here is our list of the top 10 running backs for keeper leagues. The top 10 quarterbacks can be found here (and we like the Aaron Rodgers pick even more three weeks later).

1. Arian Foster, Texans (age 24): He seemingly came out of nowhere to rush for 1,616 yards, catch 66 passes for 604 yards and score 18 touchdowns in 2010. He's a risky pick over the two players who follow, but I'd put my faith in a back who doesn't have a lot of mileage.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (turns 26 on March 21): He rushed for a career-low 1,298 yards, but his "down" season included 13 total TDs and 36 receptions for 341 yards. He's an "old" 25 by running-back standards (1,198 carries and 119 receptions in four seasons), but I wouldn't worry yet.

3. Chris Johnson, Titans (25): He said his goal was a 2,500-yard season, and he fell, oh, 1,137 yards short. Johnson still had a productive season (1,364 yards rushing, 44 receptions, 12 total TDs), but his total yards dropped from 2,509 in 2009 to 1,609 last season, and his supporting cast is almost as bad as Antawn Jamison's.

4. Ray Rice, Ravens (24): If only he scored more touchdowns. Rice rushed for 1,220 yards and caught 63 passes for 556 yards last season, but his TD total slipped from eight to six. He's a yardage and point-per-catch machine, but he needs to reach double digits in TDs on a consistent basis to crack the top three.

5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (24):
He proved his monstrous second half in 2009 was no fluke. Charles, despite sharing carries with Thomas Jones, ran for 1,467 yards, averaged 6.4 yards per carry, caught 45 passes for 468 yards and scored eight TDs. If he ever gets near 20 touches per game, look out.

6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles (22): In PPR leagues, he's excellent. McCoy rushed for 1,080 yards (5.2 per carry), caught 78 passes for 592 yards and reached the end zone nine times in 2010.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (25): A knee injury cost him the final two games of the 2010 season, and dropped him a couple places on this list. Jones-Drew rushed for 1,324 yards and caught 34 passes for 317 yards, but his TDs dropped from 16 in 2009 to seven, and he caught 19 fewer passes.

8. Matt Forte, Bears (25): He was a bust in 2009, but produced in 2010 as if he was a stud rookie. The only difference was Forte had 12 TDs in 2008, his first NFL season, and nine in 2010. He rushed for 1,069 yards and had 51 receptions for 547 yards, easing our fears about offensive coordinator Mike Martz giving Forte enough chances.

9. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (23):
Aside from a crucial fumble in the Super Bowl, Mendenhall had a very productive third season (1,273 yards, 13 TDs, 23 catches). He can't compete with the top eight players on this list in PPR leagues, but in yardage- and TD-heavy leagues, he's among the best.

10. Darren McFadden, Raiders (23):
In Year 3, he lived up to the hype. In Year 4, he could let us all down again. I believe in McFadden, however, after he racked up 1,157 rushing yards, 47 catches, 507 receiving yards and 10 TDs in 13 games. A concern: He's played in 13, 12 and 13 games in his three NFL seasons.

Honorable mention

11. Frank Gore, 49ers (27):
He was limited to 11 games by a hip injury, ending his streak of 1,000-yard rushing seasons at four. Gore had 1,120 yards on the ground, caught 52 passes for 406 yards and tallied 13 TDs in 2009.

12. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (24):
He recently had ankle surgery, but it's not expected to impact his 2011 season. Bradshaw emerged from Brandon Jacobs' large shadow to run for 1,235 yards, score eight times and total 47 receptions for 314 yards last season.

13. Ryan Mathews, Chargers (23): Some of us expected too much, and we got almost nothing until Mathews' last two games, a span in which he had four TDs. His second season should be much more productive than his first.

14. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers (24):
He wasn't drafted, but had a much better rookie campaign than the first-round selection one spot above on this list. Blount rushed for 1,007 yards and six TDs, but doesn't appear as if he'll be much of an asset in the passing game (five catches for 14 yards).

15. Peyton Hillis, Browns (25): He had 331 touches in 16 games, breaking down some at the end, but was very good for the majority of 2010. Hillis ran for 1,177 yards, scored 13 TDs and had 61 receptions for 477 yards. Those numbers should drop, and maybe significantly, in Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense, which is expected to be bolstered by a return to health of Montario Hardesty. The latter could share carries with Hillis.

Others we considered: Shonn Greene, Jets; C.J. Spiller, Bills; Knowshon Moreno, Broncos; Jonathan Stewart, Panthers; Beanie Wells, Cardinals.

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Bears-Dolphins game

START 'EM

Bears:
RB Matt Forte, K Robbie Gould, defense and special teams

Dolphins:
WR Brandon Marshall, K Dan Carpenter, defense and special teams

Quick slants:
Forte has rushed for only 159 yards and been held out of the end zone in his last three games, but he has six TDs overall and is an asset in PPR leagues (30 receptions for 324 yards and three scores). ... Gould has 59 points in nine games, but scored nine last week and should have a few field-goal attempts in what could be a low-scoring game. ... The Bears' defense ranks fourth in total yards (301.9 per game), second in points (16.2) and second against the run (82.3 yards per game). ... Marshall, as we pointed out yesterday, hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3. He has 18 catches for 185 yards in his last four games and has been limited to 71 yards or fewer in eight of nine contests with Miami. He's due (we can only hope). ... The Dolphins' defense ranks eighth in total yards (314.1 per game), 13th in points allowed (21.3) and sixth against the pass (204). ... Carpenter, with 80 points in nine games, is fantasy's best kicker. Not counting bonuses for field goals of 40 yards or more, he has scored 11 or more points in four of his last five games and has 58 points in that span.

SIT 'EM

Bears:
QB Jay Cutler, RB Chester Taylor, WR Johnny Knox, WR Devin Hester, TE Greg Olsen

Dolphins:
QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Ronnie Brown, RB Ricky Williams, WR Davone Bess, WR Brian Hartline, TE Anthony Fasano

Quick slants: Cutler has five touchdowns in his last two games, but had as many interceptions (seven) as touchdown passes in his first six contests. ... Taylor has a combined 21 carries the last two weeks, but has 306 total yards and one TD on the season. ... Knox has 32 receptions for 617 yards, but he's scored only one TD and has had four or fewer receptions in six of nine games. ... Hester, with 24 catches for 243 yards and two TDs, continues to prove he's much better as a returner than receiver. ... Olsen has a TD in two consecutive games, but has had 43 yards or fewer in all but one game and has nine receptions in his last five. ... Thigpen, who is making his first start since 2008 because of injuries to Chad Henne and Chad Pennington, was pretty good two years ago with the Chiefs (2,608 yards passing, 18 TDs, 386 yards rushing, three TDs), but I wouldn't play him against a Bears defense that has 14 interceptions and has allowed just six TD tosses. ... Brown has a score in two straight, but he has three TDs on the season and has rushed for 65 yards or fewer in seven of nine games. ... Williams, with 452 total yards on 36 fewer touches than Brown (137 to 101), has been more effective than his backfield mate, but you can't play him until he gets more opportunities. ... Bess has 48 catches, but has had 53 receiving yards or fewer in six of nine games and is averaging 44 yards with zero TDs in his last three. ... Hartline had five catches for 98 yards last week, but you don't want to take a chance on a No. 3 receiver who hasn't had a TD since Week 2 -- even if he is a former Buckeye. ... Fasano had a big Week 10 (five catches for 107 yards and one TD), but had a combined nine catches for 111 yards and zero scores in the three games prior to that.

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Fantasy football: Shonn Greene's declining value and more running back analysis

I assumed Shonn Greene -- with or without LaDainian Tomlinson in green and white -- would be a top-12 running back this season.

You might have, too.

After Monday night, when Greene had five carries for 18 yards and fumbled twice on six touches, we're left to wonder how much of an impact Tomlinson's signing might have on Greene, who caught our attention by rushing for 304 yards and averaging 5.6 yards per carry in the Jets' three playoff games last season.

Tomlinson, in the first game of his post-Chargers career, had 78 yards on 13 touches, looking surprisingly spry against the Ravens' stingy defense.

This week, the Jets will play host to the Patriots, who ranked 13th against the run and allowed only six rushing TDs last season.

You never want to overreact because of one game, but I wouldn't play Greene or L.T. against the Pats.

Around the league

Let's take a quick look at some of the more muddled backfields from a fantasy perspective:

-- Buffalo: C.J. Spiller was a preseason darling, and he might be a future stud, but right now, this looks like a mess. Spiller had 11 touches for 12 yards last week, and Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch will get work. Together, the three combined for 46 total yards on 22 touches. I'd sit Spiller against Green Bay. The other two shouldn't be starting options unless an injury or poor play knocks someone out of the equation.

-- Carolina: DeAngelo Williams had 16 carries to Jonathan Stewart's five in Week 1. I wouldn't read too much into that yet. Stewart should be a flex option Sunday vs. the Buccaneers.

-- Chicago: Is Matt Forte back? We can only hope. Almost as encouraging as the second-year running back's receiving stats last week was the fact he received 24 touches to Chester Taylor's 12.

-- Cleveland: For now, it's a tandem. But I'd expect Eric Mangini to wise up and give up Jerome Harrison, not Peyton Hillis, the lion's share of the load.

-- Dallas: More sharing, more frustration. Marion Barber and Felix Jones each had 10 touches last week, and Tashard Choice seven. Long term, Jones should be the best play, but Barber is the most enticing starting option Sunday at home against the Bears.

-- Denver: It's Knowshon Moreno's show for now, but you have to wonder if the Broncos' trade for Laurence Maroney will mean another dreaded tandem in a few weeks.

-- Indianapolis: Good news, Joseph Addai owners. Your back received 10 carries, and Donald Brown's only touch was a reception.

-- Miami: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are sharing, as expected, but both are useful, especially Brown, at least until he gets hurt.

-- New Orleans: With Mike Bell in Philadelphia, Pierre Thomas (71 rushing yards, one TD, three receptions for 15 yards in Week 1) is an every-week starter. Reggie Bush is a flex play, at best, in deep PPR leagues.

-- New England: Fred Taylor, at age 34 (94 in running back years), had 71 yards on 14 carries last week. With Maroney gone, he seems to be the best option, but he should be a flex play only in 12-team or deeper leagues most weeks. I wouldn't play him Sunday at the Jets.

-- New York Giants: There seems to be a changing of the guard, from Brandon Jacobs (12 carries for 44 yards last week) to the electric Ahmad Bradshaw (76 yards rushing, one TD, two catches for 17 yards in Week 1). Bradshaw is a decent play Sunday night at Indy. Jacobs is not.

-- Oakland: Darren McFadden had a huge game (150 total yards, six receptions, one TD), but most of the points he accumulated were in garbage time against the Pats. Also keep in mind that McFadden posted those numbers with Michael Bush out. The latter is expected to return this week. McFadden is still a decent option this week against the Rams, who ranked 27th against the run and gave up 24 rushing TDs in 2009.

-- Seattle: Another mess. Justin Forsett was productive (6 yards per touch), but received only seven carries -- to eight by Julius Jones and six by Leon Washington. Sit 'em all.

-- Tampa Bay: It's Cadillac Williams' show, until he joins Ronnie Brown on injured reserve.

Quick slants

-- It's much too soon to trust Derek Anderson (297 yards, one TD last week), but he has the weapons. I'm tempted, but have seen too many bad Browns games to make the move.

-- Anquan Boldin has relegated Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to bench spots. Boldin had seven catches for 110 yards last week, compared to Mason's two for 21 and Houshmandzadeh's one for 27. I still believe in Mason, but wouldn't play him until the schedule softens.

-- I believe in Legedu Naanee. And you should, too.

-- I don't believe in any Jets receiver (or tight end Dustin Keller) until Santonio Holmes returns from his four-game suspension, and even then it will be difficult to play the former Buckeye with Mark Sanchez throwing to him (or trying futilely to do so). Not counting the playoffs, Sanchez hasn't thrown for 250 yards or two touchdowns since he did both in Week 8 of 2009.

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Saturday, December 5, 2009

Fantasy football: Injury updates, start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist for Week 13

This week's injury roll call is more extensive -- and slightly more optimistic -- than the list of Eric Mangini complaints in the NFL players' association database.

-- Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return from a concussion to start against the Raiders. Kurt Warner is also expected to start, but the Cardinals QB is a much more questionable play than his Steelers counterpart. Warner split practice reps with Matt Leinart all week and could be a game-time decision, which leaves owners in a quandary because the Cards face the Vikings in the Sunday night game. If you have a productive backup, playing him is the safe route, or you can pick up Leinart and have him as insurance in case Warner is inactive.

-- Falcons QB Matt Ryan is out, as are running backs Clinton Portis (Redskins) and Brian Westbrook (Eagles), along with Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson.

-- At running back, the Bengals' Cedric Benson is expected to return from a hip injury, and backup Bernard Scott is out because of turf toe, which leaves Benson to get the majority of the carries and Larry Johnson available for a handful of opportunities against the woeful Lions.

-- Falcons running back Michael Turner is expected to be a game-time decision, but he's likely to sit Sunday's home game vs. the Eagles. Jason Snelling should start, but the electric Jerious Norwood might be the more effective play -- although neither is better than a No. 3 back against Philly's eighth-ranked run defense.

-- The Panthers' DeAngelo Williams (ankle injury) is also a game-time decision, which could be good news for Jonathan Stewart owners vs. the Bucs (more on that later).

-- The Rams' Steven Jackson missed practice all week because of a back injury, but he did the same the week before, then ran for 89 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. He should start.

-- The Seahawks' Julius Jones will return from a bruised lung, and backup Justin Forsett, who has rushed for 262 yards, scored four TDs and caught 13 passes for 106 yards the last three weeks, is questionable after injuring his quadriceps Friday in practice. Jones should get the majority of the carries but isn't a very good play vs. the 49ers (No. 5 vs. the run).

-- The Texans' Steve Slaton is questionable with a shoulder injury. He, too, will be a game-time decision. If he sits, Chris Brown should start against the Jaguars (No. 10 vs. the run).

-- Falcons wide receiver Roddy White has been limited this week by a knee ailment, but he should play and be considered a No. 2 receiver against Philly.

On to the start-and-sit advice for what likely is the final week of your league's regular season:

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos, at Chiefs: He's been dreadful in the last five games, during which the Broncos are 1-4, throwing three touchdown passes and five interceptions. But here's a gut feeling: That will change as Orton accounts for a couple of touchdowns vs. the Chiefs, who rank 30th defending the pass.

-- Matt Forte, RB, Bears, vs. Rams:
He's been one of the season's biggest busts (nice to have you aboard, Jay Cutler). Forte has rushed for only 135 yards and has been a much more productive receiver (22 catches for 248 yards) in his last four games, a span in which he has zero TDs. Forte should end that run of futility vs. the Rams, who rank 28th vs. the run and have given up 16 rushing touchdowns.

-- Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints, at Redskins: With 11 rushing attempts in each of the last three games, this is another hunch play. Thomas has been very effective when he's gotten the chance (5.6 yards per carry and seven touchdowns on 136 touches this season). He should reach the end zone against the Redskins (No. 25 vs. the run).

-- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers, vs. Buccaneers: Whether Williams sits or not (although I'm guessing he will), Stewart should be a quality play vs. the Bucs, against whom he rushed for 110 yards and a TD in Week 6. Tampa ranks 30th stopping (not stopping?) the run and has allowed 12 rushing TDs.

-- Jason Avant, WR, Eagles, at Falcons: He has 17 catches for 276 yards and a TD in his last three games, and his role should expand with DeSean Jackson out. The Falcons rank 27th vs. the pass.

More matchups I like:


Jay Cutler, QB, Bears, vs. Rams; Cadillac Williams, RB, Buccaneers, at Panthers; Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos, at Chiefs; Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice, WRs, Vikings, at Cardinals; Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts, vs. Titans; Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers, at Seahawks

Three to sit


If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys, at Giants:
Two reasons: 1. It's December (let's just say it's not a good month for Romo). 2. Romo threw for 127 yards, one TD and three picks in Week 2 against the Giants. I know New York is a different team now, but it's a must-win for the hosts, and Romo never seems to play well in these moments.

-- Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, RBs, Cardinals, vs. Vikings: One week, Wells is productive (the rookie had three touchdowns in a two-game span prior to his dud of a Week 12). The next, it's Hightower, who scored his first TD in four games last week. The latter has been bothered by a thumb injury, and the Vikings are always strong against the run (No. 2, only three rushing TDs allowed).

More matchups I don’t like:

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions, at Bengals; Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants, vs. Cowboys

Last week


The start list had a pair of hits in LaDainian Tomlinson (39 yards rushing, two TDs) and Jamaal Charles (93 yards rushing, one TD, three catches for 54 yards). Carson Palmer threw for 110 yards and a TD (not as well as we expected vs. the Browns), Marion Barber (61 yards rushing, two catches for 41 yards) was effective in limited opportunites (but still not a productive fantasy play), and Michael Crabtree (four catches for 54 yards) was a dud.

The sit list was right on Brandon Jacobs (27 yards rushing, three catches for 30 yards), correct on Steve Slaton in non-PPR formats (57 yards rushing, four catches for 49 yards) and way off on Knowshon Moreno (88 yards rushing, one TD, two catches for 19 yards).

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. Titans (No. 31 vs. the pass)
2. Tom Brady, Patriots, at Dolphins (No. 23)
3. Philip Rivers, Chargers, at Browns (No. 24)
4. Drew Brees, Saints, at Redskins (No. 1)
5. Brett Favre, Vikings, at Cardinals (No. 29)
6. Matt Schaub, Texans, at Jaguars (No. 26)
7. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, at Falcons (No. 27)
8. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, vs. Ravens (No. 12)
9. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Lions (No. 32)
10. x-Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, vs. Raiders (No. 17)
11. Kyle Orton, Broncos, at Chiefs (No. 30)
12. x-Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. Vikings (No. 19)
13. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Rams (No. 22)
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, vs. 49ers (No. 28)
15. Tony Romo, Cowboys, at Giants (No. 4)
16. Alex Smith, 49ers, at Seahawks (No. 25)
17. Eli Manning, Giants, vs. Cowboys (No. 21)
18. Joe Flacco, Ravens, at Packers (No. 6)
19. David Garrard, Jaguars, vs. Texans (tied for No. 14)
20. Vince Young, Titans, at Colts (No. 20)
x-Make sure Warner and Roethlisberger aren’t last-minute scratches.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, vs. Texans (No. 22 vs. the run)
2. Chris Johnson, Titans, at Colts (No. 15)
3. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, at Cardinals (No. 14)
4. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, vs. Raiders (No. 31)
5. x-Steven Jackson, Rams, at Bears (No. 24)
6. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Seahawks (No. 18)
7. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Lions (No. 19)
8. Ray Rice, Ravens, at Packers (No. 4)
9. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Browns (No. 29)
10. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, vs. Buccaneers (No. 30)
11. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Titans (No. 7)
12. Ricky Williams, Dolphins, vs. Patriots (No. 16)
13. Matt Forte, Bears, vs. Rams (No. 28)
14. LeSean McCoy, Eagles, at Falcons (No. 23)
15. Laurence Maroney, Patriots, at Dolphins (No. 12)
16. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, at Chiefs (No. 27)
17. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, vs. Broncos (No. 17)
18. Ryan Grant, Packers, vs. Ravens (No. 6)
19. Pierre Thomas, Saints, at Redskins (No. 25)
20. Marion Barber, Cowboys, at Giants (No. 11)
21. Jerious Norwood, Falcons, vs. Eagles (No. 8)
22. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers, at Panthers (No. 26)
23. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, vs. Cowboys (No. 9)
24. Rock Cartwright, Redskins, vs. Saints (No. 20)
x-Make sure Jackson (back injury) is active.

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Randy Moss, Patriots, at Dolphins (No. 23 vs. the pass)
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. Titans (No. 31)
3. Andre Johnson, Texans, at Jaguars (No. 26)
4. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, vs. Lions (No. 32)
5. Wes Welker, Patriots, at Dolphins (No. 23)
6. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Chiefs (No. 30)
7. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. Vikings (No. 19)
8. Marques Colston, Saints, at Redskins (No. 1)
9. Hines Ward, Steelers, vs. Raiders (No. 17)
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Browns (No. 24)
11. Donald Driver, Packers, vs. Ravens (No. 12)
12. Jason Avant, Eagles, at Falcons (No. 27)
13. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, vs. Texans (tied for No. 14)
14. Calvin Johnson, Lions, at Bengals (No. 16)
15. Percy Harvin, Vikings, at Cardinals (No. 29)
16. Steve Smith, Giants, vs. Cowboys (No. 21)
17. x-Roddy White, Falcons, vs. Eagles (No. 9)
18. Miles Austin, Cowboys, at Giants (No. 4)
19. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. Vikings (No. 19)
20. Steve Smith, Panthers, vs. Buccaneers (No. 11)
21. Derrick Mason, Ravens, at Packers
22. Sidney Rice, Vikings, at Cardinals (No. 29)
23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. 49ers (No. 28)
24. Greg Jennings, Packers, vs. Ravens (No. 12)
25. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, vs. 49ers (No. 28)
26. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, vs. Raiders (No. 17)
27. Chris Chambers, Chiefs, vs. Broncos (No. 5)
28. Pierre Garcon, Colts, vs. Titans (No. 31)
29. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, at Seahawks (No. 25)
30. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles, at Falcons (No. 27)
31. Devin Hester, Bears, vs. Rams (No. 22)
32. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers, at Panthers (No. 3)
33. Mario Manningham, Giants, vs. Cowboys (No. 21)
34. Donnie Avery, Rams, at Bears (tied for No. 14)
35. Kenny Britt, Titans, at Colts (No. 20)
36. Santana Moss, Redskins, vs. Saints (No. 18)
x-Make sure White (knee injury) is active.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL:
In this week’s column, we break down five things to watch, along with five waiver-wire acquisitions, heading into the final week of the regular season in fantasy. The link also includes this week’s audiocast with Kleps and Sports Editor Mark Podolski.

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Thursday, November 12, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit for Thursday's Bears-49ers game

Expect a lot of scoring tonight -- the 49ers' defense ranks 24th against the pass, and the Bears have been very susceptible vs. the run (No. 21 in the league, seven rushing TDs allowed).

START

Bears: QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, WR Devin Hester, TE Greg Olsen, K Robbie Gould

49ers: RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis, K Joe Nedney

Quick slants: Forte has been disappointing, but there is hope. The consensus top-five fantasy pick has rushed for 123 yards and two touchdowns and caught eight passes for 105 yards in his last two games. He has posted more than 100 total yards in back-to-back games for only the second time all season. ... Hester has 27 catches for 359 yards and a TD in his last four games. In that span, he's had at least six receptions and 81 yards in each contest. ... Cutler is coming off his best fantasy day as a Bear, a 369-yard, three-TD effort against the Cardinals. ... Olsen had only 10 catches for 94 yards and two scores in his first four games, but has 17 catches, 192 yards and four TDs in his last four. He matched his TD total for the season by scoring three times last week. ... Gore has erased any worries about his ankle injury in the last two games, during which he's rushed 28 times for 174 yards (6.2) and two TDs, and caught 12 passes for 118 yards. ... Look for Crabtree to score his first NFL touchdown against a beat-up Bears secondary. ... Davis, who has been one of this year's best draft-day bargains, has 35 receptions and seven TDs in his last six games.

SIT

Bears: WR Earl Bennett, WR Johnny Knox, defense and special teams

49ers: QB Alex Smith, WR Josh Morgan, WR Isaac Bruce, defense and special teams

Quick slants: Bennett is worth a look only in deep PPR leagues. He had seven catches for 93 yards last week, but has yet to reach the end zone. ... Knox, who had three TDs in Chicago's first five games, has only 116 yards and zero TDs in the last three games. ... Smith could be useful in deeper leagues. He's thrown for 690 yards and six scores, with five interceptions, in three games.

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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 9

When us fantasy freaks think of things we need more of in the NFL, running-back committees rank far below DIRECTV's Sunday Ticket and slightly above more high-definition closeups of an annoyed Eric Mangini.

Well, buckle up, boys and girls, we've got another committee, thanks to one of this year's biggest busts, Steve Slaton.

Slaton was fantastic as a rookie last season, when he ran for 1,282 yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry, scored 10 touchdowns and caught 50 passes for 377 yards. This year, not so much.

The Texans running back was benched early last week after losing his fifth fumble of the season. In his place, Ryan Moats -- who had 56 yards in Houston's first seven games -- ran for 126 yards and three TDs on 23 carries and had two receptions for 25 yards.

That has led to speculation this week that Moats, who has 623 career rushing yards in limited duty since 2005, will take over as the Texans' featured back. Coach Gary Kubiak, however, has refused to name a starter, but did say Slaton, Moats and Chris Brown all will play.

Thanks, Coach. I'm sure this week's opponent, the Colts, are every bit as nervous as Slaton owners.

In Houston's first seven games, Slaton had 109 rushing attempts, Brown 36 and Moats 15. So what was a one-man attack is now a two-headed monster -- but not of the Saints variety (the productive Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell combo). Instead, it's more of a don't-play-either-unless-you-have-to-because-of-bye-weeks-situation.

Of the two, Moats has more value this week, since he should at least start. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could be a decent No. 2 running back going forward, when the Texans face the Titans (Week 11, No. 18 vs. the run), Jaguars (Week 13, No. 25 vs. the run) and Rams (Week 15, No. 28).

But at this point, you can't trust Slaton or Moats. Because six teams are off this week, Moats is a low-level No. 2 running back. Slaton is a reserve.

And committees continue to remind us of the evil doings of Mike Shanahan.

Replacement players

If you were among the unfortunate owners who lost standout tight ends Chris Cooley (who will miss at least another few weeks because of a broken ankle) and/or Owen Daniels (who will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury), let's look at five players who are available in the majority of the leagues on ESPN.com. We'll do so in descending order to build the drama:

5. Kevin Boss, Giants (owned in 39.5 percent of the ESPN leagues): He was impressive last season (33 catches for 384 yards and six touchdowns) and anything but in the Giants' first five games this year (11 receptions for 161 yards and zero scores). Boss had three catches for 70 yards and a TD last week, and he has six receptions in his last two games. The bad news: He's been limited this week by a sprained ankle (but he is expected to play). Week 9 opponent: Chargers (No. 6 vs. the pass).

4. Benjamin Watson, Patriots (30.2 percent): He has four touchdowns on the season, but six of his 15 catches and 77 of his 222 yards were in the Patriots' season opener (as were two of his TDs). Week 9 opponent: Dolphins(No. 21 vs. the pass).

3. Spencer Havner, Packers (1.6 percent): This seems like a reach, until you consider Havner has three touchdowns in the Pack's last two games. He's not going to be much of an asset in point-per-reception leagues, but with Jermichael Finley likely out again this week because of a knee injury, Havner could at least get you six points the old-fashioned, non-PPR way. Week 9 opponent: at Buccaneers (No. 15 vs. the pass).

2. Todd Heap, Ravens (41.8 percent): He's had three or more catches in five consecutive games, but he hasn't had a TD in that span after scoring twice in the first two weeks. Week 9 opponent: at Bengals (No. 30 vs. the pass).

1. Fred Davis, Redskins (3.1 percent): When Cooley was injured in Week 7 against the Eagles, Davis, a second-round pick in 2008, was targeted 10 times and caught eight passes for 78 yards and a TD. Considering Cooley has averaged 4.6 receptions per game since 2007, Davis figures to get plenty of opportunities to produce for a struggling offense. Week 9 opponent: at Falcons (No. 31 vs. the pass).

Start 'em

-- Matt Forte, RB, Bears: How much were his 90 yards rushing and two TDs a product of how awful the Browns have been? Likely quite a bit, but I would at least see how the 2008 rookie stud and '09 disappointment performs in tough matchups this week against the Cardinals (No. 8 vs. the run) and in Week 10 at the 49ers (No. 2).

-- Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers: With 11 catches and 15 targets in two games since ending his holdout, I'd consider the rookie an every-week starter in PPR leagues.

Sit 'em

-- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: He's thrown as many interceptions (11) as touchdown passes, and there are too many productive quarterbacks this season to continue starting him every week.

-- Eli Manning, QB, Giants: He hasn't thrown for more than 243 yards since Week 4, and he has twice as many picks (six) as TD tosses (three) in his last three games.

Drop 'em

-- Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys: Remember him? Whether Williams wants to admit it or not, and apparently he doesn't, Austin Miles is Dallas' top receiver. Williams has one TD since Week 1 and has had 35 receiving yards or fewer in four of his last five games. If you need the roster space and have a few productive receivers, he is a candidate to hit the waiver wire.

-- Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos: Another game, another shutout. It's amazing that a player who caught 91 passes as a rookie in 2008 has a total of 10 catches for 68 yards in six of Denver's seven games (Royal had 10 catches for 90 yards in the other, a Week 5 win over the Patriots). Royal has yet to reach the end zone, and it's hard to argue with letting him go at this point.

Closing numbers

Cardinals running back Tim Hightower -- who has struggled mightily on the ground (3.3 yards per carry this season and 2.9 in his two-year career) -- has four more catches (39) than teammate Anquan Boldin.

Hightower had 34 receptions in 16 games as a rookie last season. Boldin, who has battled injuries but played in all seven games this year, had 89 catches in 12 games in 2008. Hightower also has five TDs to Boldin's one in 2009.

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Thursday, October 22, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 7

Michael Crabtree built quite a following of detractors during his seemingly senseless contract holdout. In the next few weeks, the 49ers receiver has a chance to get some of the critics back on his side.

"Some" being us fantasy football owners who can be swayed by the simple things -- catches, yards and touchdowns.

Crabtree, who didn't sign until Oct. 6, is expected to start Sunday at Houston. Big things were expected of the rookie after the draft; now, we'll be happy if he's better than Josh Morgan (and he can't get worse than Isaac Bruce).

Crabtree is owned in only 30 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, but he's worth a look in deeper leagues and should be scooped up in all keeper formats.

I wouldn't play him Sunday, although the matchup against the Texans' 19th-ranked pass defense is favorable. But I wouldn't be surprised if he was a decent starter in the coming weeks, when the 49ers face the bottom four teams in the league in pass defense -- Week 9 at Tennessee (No. 32 vs. the pass), Week 12 vs. Jacksonville (No. 30), Week 14 at Arizona (No. 31) and Week 16 vs. Detroit (No. 29). The Titans (19), Lions (17) and Jaguars (12) have allowed a combined 48 touchdown passes in 18 games, which bodes well for Crabtree.

And if you think the 49ers are rushing him by starting him 19 days after he signed, here are three numbers for you: 26, 369, 1. Those are the combined catches, yards and touchdowns for San Francisco starting receivers Morgan and Bruce in five games, which together are one fewer catch, 58 more yards and one fewer TD than Redskins tight end Chris Cooley, who has Jason Campbell as his QB.

Start 'em

-- We should know better than to get our hopes up, but LaDainian Tomlinson showed glimpses of the old L.T. on Monday night. Granted, he rushed for only 70 yards on 18 carries, had three catches for 30 yards and didn't score a touchdown, but he actually looked healthy for the first time since the opener. If you hesitated to play L.T. last week, I don't blame you, but he should return to your lineup the next two weeks. In that span, the Chargers play at the Chiefs (No. 27 vs. the run) and at home against the Raiders (No. 29). Combined, the teams are allowing 275.6 yards per game and have surrendered 13 rushing TDs.

-- Last Sunday night was a microcosm of Matt Forte's season. Jay Cutler and the Bears were moving the ball through the air, and Forte did nothing on the ground. And just when you got your hopes up, he fumbled twice near the goal line, failing to salvage an awful night by at least scoring a touchdown (wait, can you tell I drafted Forte third overall in the News-Herald PPR league?). As bad as he's been (294 yards rushing, 3.4 yards per carry, one TD), I would still play Forte the next two weeks, when Chicago plays at an Antwan Odom-less Cincinnati and at home against the Browns and their extremely generous run defense (No. 30, 165.3 yards per game, nine rushing TDs by the opposition).

Sit him


-- If you played Broncos receiver Eddie Royal on Monday night, we can only hope you also had Denver's defense and special teams, since that's probably the only way you received credit for Royal's kickoff and punt returns for touchdowns. Denver is off this week, then plays at Baltimore and at home vs. Pittsburgh. At this point, Royal, who had 91 catches as a rookie last season, can't be trusted. He's had one productive game (10 catches for 90 yards in Week 5) and five contests in which he's caught a combined eight passes for 58 yards, and he hasn't scored a TD other than on special teams all season.

Drop 'em

-- If you need the roster space with six teams on a bye in Week 7, running back Willis McGahee, whose Ravens have the week off, should be a prime candidate to go the way of any employee who fails to pay a fine imposed by Eric Mangini. In his last three games, McGahee has 13 carries for 12 yards and 15 touches total. Ray Rice has developed into one of the top two or three backs in PPR leagues, and McGahee will be lucky to get double-digit carries in any game the rest of the way.

-- Vikings rookie receiver Percy Harvin, who scored a touchdown in each of his first two NFL games, hasn't scored since and has had more than 51 receiving only once in Minnesota's last four contests. The electric rookie has also been bothered by a sore shoulder and has been the Vikings' fourth receiving option as Sidney Rice (18 catches for 363 yards and two TDs in his last four games) and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe (11 receptions and four TDs in his last three contests) have flourished. If you have limited room on your roster, call Harvin into your office and send him on his way (you have to be better at it than the Bengals' turk on "Hard Knocks").

Stat of the week


One: As in 100-yard games for Laurence Maroney since the start of the 2008 season. The Patriots running back finally got the lion's share of the workload last week with Fred Taylor out and Sammy Morris banged up, rushing for 123 yards and a TD on 16 carries and catching three passes for 10 yards.

If there was ever a week to play Maroney (well, other than last Sunday), this would seem to be it. The Patriots face the winless Buccaneers in London, and Morris is likely to sit because of a knee injury (Taylor has already been ruled out). Tampa Bay ranks 31st against the run, giving up 171.7 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt.

Can Maroney -- gasp -- record two 100-yard games in a row? Since he's a running back for the Patriots and Bill Belichick seems to take joy in giving four backs five to eight carries each, we can never be certain.

Still, I like Maroney's odds.

The way this season has gone, expect Tom Brady to throw for 500 yards and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to be New England's leading rusher with 24 yards on five carries.

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Thursday, September 17, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 2

We'll make this a weekly staple during the football season -- a mid-week collection of news and notes of relevance for fantasy owners.

On Saturdays, we'll have a column each week for the print editions and the N-H's Sports site (this week's will focus on Anthony Gonzalez's knee injury and a buy-and-sell for some of Week 1's surprise performances). There will also be an audiocast published that morning on our online Sports section.

Saturday will also be when we publish the "big blog," which includes the expanded playlist, five players to start, three to sit and much more. That can be found under "latest updates" on the homepage of our Web site and at www.News-Herald.com/Sports.

Thursday, we held our first live fantasy football chat. The plan for now is to have them every Thursday at 4 p.m. during the football season. Here's a recap of today's.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- Take a seat, L.T.: LaDainian Tomlinson is saying he plans to play this week against Baltimore, despite a sprained ankle that has required him to wear a protective boot. It's fair to wonder if he thinks he can help his team or if he's worried the Chargers are slowly realizing that Darren Sproles, at this stage of their respective careers, is better. If Tomlinson plays Sunday, I would bench him against the Ravens, who held the Chiefs to 29 rushing yards last week and ranked third against the run last season. Baltimore allowed only 3.6 yards per carry and a league-low four rushing touchdowns in 2008.

If L.T. sits for just the second time in his career, I would consider playing Sproles in point-per-reception leagues. The speedy back will never be a 20-carry player, but he has averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his career and is an effective receiver.

-- Cool your Jets: Mark Sanchez could be the next Matt Ryan -- a sporadic fantasy starter as a rookie. Or he could be the next Joe Flacco -- an effective rookie QB with minimal value in the fake game. The Jets quarterback was impressive in throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but let's not forget it was against the Texans, against whom opposing QBs had a 92.3 rating in 2008. Until we find out in which category Sanchez fits, I wouldn't consider him.

-- What's the catch?: Matt Forte owners should be slightly concerned, but not about the 2.2 yards per carry the Bears running back averaged in Week 1. The number I would focus on is one, as in the times Forte was targeted by Jay Cutler on Sunday night. Forte's greatest fantasy asset is his ability to rack up both rushing (1,238 yards as a rookie in 2008) and receiving numbers (63 catches for 477 yards). But in Cutler's Chicago debut, he targeted former Vanderbilt teammate Earl Bennett 14 times, yet threw only six passes to tight end Greg Olsen, four to Devin Hester and one to Forte. That has to change if Forte is to remain worthy of a first-round fantasy pick.

-- Too much sharing: As expected, the number of teams splitting carries is more frustrating than an Eric Mangini injury report. Preseason Achilles injury and all, Jonathan Stewart (11 rushing attempts Sunday) is still around to haunt owners of DeAngelo Williams (14 carries). Baltimore has two effective backs (Ray Rice and Willis McGahee) and a fullback (LeRon McClain) who swipes goal-line carries, and the Bucs' time share now includes a rejuvenated (at least until he gets hurt) Cadillac Williams (our condolences on the late draft pick, Earnest Graham owners).

Did we mention Leon Washington got just five fewer carries than Jets teammate Thomas Jones in Week 1, or that Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno each had only eight attempts for Denver at Cincinnati? Then there's the electric Ahmad Bradshaw, who seems to be ready to fill Derrick Ward's former role as the lightning to Brandon Jacobs' thunder. Jacobs had 16 carries for 46 yards last week -- to Bradshaw's 12 for 60.

Rookie Donald Brown had 11 carries for 33 yards in his Colts debut (starter Joseph Addai has 17 for 42),and Beanie Wells' first game as a Cardinal featured seven carries for 29 yards (Tim Hightower had eight carries for 15 yards and possibly the most surprising stat line of the weekend: 12 catches for 121 yards).

Aside from Hightower's receiving totals, which won't happen again, the only encouraging numbers to come from from the Backfield-By-Committee Division were these: 14, 79, 1. Those were Marion Barber's attempts, yards and touchdowns for Dallas at Tampa Bay, compared to Felix Jones' six carries for 22 yards. If Barber continues to get the majority of the touches, he should regain his 2007 status as a high-end No. 2 fantasy back.

-- Closing number: 25.0. That's Eagles backup Kevin Kolb's passer rating in 45 career attempts, which have generated zero touchdowns and four interceptions. We'll address Donovan McNabb's rib injury more in Saturday's blog, but until then, if you are a McNabb owner and are considering using Kolb if McNabb doesn't play, don't. Of McNabb's three backups, the one who might have the greatest value the rest of the season wasn't even on any team's roster in Week 1: Jeff Garcia. Sorry, Michael Vick. I'm no offensive coordinator (even though I can run the no-huddle), but I doubt the latter will have any fantasy impact this season.

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Monday, August 24, 2009

Fantasy football rankings: Running backs

Before we get to the rankings for the most important position in fantasy, let me be master of the obvious: It's good to have the No. 1 overall pick in your league.

This year, it's almost as crucial as it was during the LaDainian Tomlinson glory years.

And the reason has nothing to do with the expectation that Adrian Peterson will outscore every other running back this season. In point-per-reception leagues, he almost certainly won't.

It instead has everything to do with the fact that there's no clear-cut No. 2 pick behind him. I'd give the slightest of edges to Matt Forte over Maurice Jones-Drew, but owners in non-PPR leagues certainly have to target Michael Turner.

There are questions regarding every back on this list. Will Forte and Slaton experience a sophomore slump? Will Turner and DeAngelo Williams be nearly as great as they were in 2008? Will the slimmed-down LenDale White cut further into Chris Johnson's scoring? Will Steven Jackson stay healthy? Will L.T. continue to decline?

There are no such concerns with Peterson, who is the football version of Albert Pujols. Take him first, and don't even consider anyone else.

In PPR leagues, Peterson was outscored by the likes of Williams, Forte, Jones-Drew, Turner, Tomlinson, Slaton, Brian Westbrook and even Thomas Jones last season. That was because of two factors: His less-than-average receiving totals (21 catches for 125 yards) and his decrease in touchdowns (from 13 as a rookie in 2007 to 10 last season).

Regardless, Peterson rushed for 1,760 yards in his second season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, and with a decent -- albeit aging and waffling -- quarterback, the addition of Percy Harvin and a good offensive line in Minnesota, you should have every reason to believe he will average more than 100 yards and one TD per game.

Will that be enough to vault him to the top of the scoring leaders in PPR leagues? Probably not. But you don't want to miss with the top overall pick, and Peterson shouldn't disappoint you in any format.

Rank, player, team GP-Yds-TD-Rec-Yds-TD
1. Adrian Peterson, Min 16-1,760-10-21-125-0
2. Matt Forte, Chi 16-1,238-8-63-477-4
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac 16-824-12-62-565-2
4. Michael Turner, Atl 16-1,699-17-6-41-0
5. Steve Slaton, Hou 16-1,282-9-50-377-1
6. Chris Johnson, Ten 15-1,228-9-43-260-1
7. DeAngelo Williams, Car 16-1,515-18-22-121-2
8. Steven Jackson, StL 12-1,042-7-40-379-1
9. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD 16-1,110-11-52-426-1
10. Frank Gore, SF 14-1,036-6-43-373-2
11. Brian Westbrook, Phi 14-936-9-54-402-5
12. Brandon Jacobs, NYG 13-1,089-15-6-36-0
13. Clinton Portis, Was 16-1,487-9-28-218-0
14. Marion Barber, Dal 15-885-7-52-417-2
15. Kevin Smith, Det 16-976-8-39-286-0
16. Ryan Grant, GB 16-1,203-4-18-116-1
17. Ronnie Brown, Mia 16-916-10-33-254-0
18. Thomas Jones, NYJ 16-1,312-13-36-207-2
19. Pierre Thomas, NO 15-625-9-31-284-3
20. Joseph Addai, Ind 12-544-5-25-206-2
21. Marshawn Lynch, Buf 15-1,036-8-47-300-1
22. Darren McFadden, Oak 13-499-4-29-285-0
23. Derrick Ward, TB 16-1,025-2-41-384-0
24. Knowshon Moreno, Den ROOKIE
25. Jonathan Stewart, Car 16-836-10-8-47-0
26. Larry Johnson, KC 12-874-5-12-74-0
27. Willie Parker, Pit 11-791-5-3-13-0
28. Jamal Lewis, Cle 16-1,002-4-23-178-0
29. Reggie Bush, NO 10-404-2-52-440-4
30. LenDale White, Ten 16-773-15-5-16-0
31. Ray Rice, Bal 13-454-0-33-273-0
32. Cedric Benson, Cin 12-797-2-20-185-0
33. Beanie Wells, Ari ROOKIE
34. Julius Jones, Sea 15-698-2-14-66-0
35. Willis McGahee, Bal 13-671-7-24-173-0
36. Earnest Graham, TB 10-563-4-23-174-0
37. Donald Brown, Ind ROOKIE
38. Fred Jackson, Buf 16-571-3-37-317-0
39. Felix Jones, Dal 6-266-3-2-10-0
40. Sammy Morris, NE 13-727-7-17-161-0
41. Leon Washington, NYJ 16-448-6-47-355-2
42. Fred Taylor, NE 13-556-1-16-98-0
43. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG 15-355-1-5-42-1
44. Darren Sproles, SD 16-330-1-29-342-5
45. Rashard Mendenhall, Pit 4-58-0-2-17-0
46. Tim Hightower, Ari 16-399-10-34-237-0
47. LeSean McCoy, Phi ROOKIE
48. Chester Taylor, Min 16-399-4-45-399-2
49. Ricky Williams, Mia 16-659-4-29-219-1
50. Jerious Norwood, Atl 16-489-4-36-338-2
51. Laurence Maroney, NE 3-93-0-0-0-0
52. LeRon McClain, Bal 16-902-10-19-123-1
53. Correll Buckhalter, Den 14-369-2-26-324-2
54. Justin Fargas, Oak 14-853-1-10-52-0
55. Jamaal Charles, KC 16-357-0-27-272-1
56. T.J. Duckett, Sea 16-172-8-0-0-0
57. Tashard Choice, Dal 16-472-2-21-185-0
58. Maurice Morris, Det 13-574-0-19-136-2
59. Ladell Betts, Was 13-206-1-22-200-0
60. Brandon Jackson, GB 13-248-1-30-185-0

QUICK SLANTS
Turner, who has 17 catches in 75 career games, is even less of a help in the receiving department than Peterson. ... With Fred Taylor in New England, Jones-Drew's touches per game should increase from its absurdly low 2008 total (16.2) to at least the low 20s. ... The Rams' Jackson always produces, but he's also frequently hurt (12 games played in each of the last two seasons). ... Gore has a combined 157 catches the last three years. ... The Cowboys' Barber averaged 14 TDs per season in 2006 and '07. ... The Jets' Jones scored only two TDs in 2007. ... In 20 games played the last two seasons, the Chiefs' Johnson has nine touchdowns. ... The Browns' Lewis (1,552 total yards and 11 TDs in 2007) could provide value as a third running back, but not if he repeats his 2008 production. ... The Bengals' Benson has 12 touchdowns in 47 career games. ... A possible sleeper: Buffalo's Fred Jackson, who should be the featured back with Marshawn Lynch suspended for the first three weeks. Jackson is more of an asset in PPR leagues.

Next: Wide receivers

Linked in: For a complete list of our fantasy football rankings, click here. ... To read our fantasy football previews, click here for Mark Podolski's 25 bold predictions, here for my column on the most muddled backfields and here for the best crutches, key storylines and injuries.

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fantasy football: More NFL draft numbers

In a column for the print editions two weeks ago, I broke down the success -- or lack thereof -- of rookie quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers from a fantasy perspective.

A quick recap: Since 2004, only four quarterbacks have thrown for 2,500 yards or more and at least 10 touchdowns as rookies -- Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008, Matt Leinart in 2006 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. There have been eight rookie running backs to record 1,000 yards on the ground -- Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton last season, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in 2007, Joseph Addai in 2006, Cadillac Williams in 2005 and Kevin Jones (yes, Kevin Jones; he was such a surprise I omitted him in the previous column) in 2004. And the most surprising stat: Only two wide receivers have had 1,000-yard campaigns in their first seasons, and Larry Fitzgerald wasn't one of them. The two are Marques Colston in 2006 and the seldom-heard-from-since Michael Clayton in 2004.

Some leftover statistics from that analysis:

-- Where are the receivers? It goes without saying that quarterbacks can't be trusted as fantasy options as rookies. Of the four QBs to reach the aforementioned plateau, only Ryan threw for 3,000 yards (3,440 with the Falcons in 2008), and only Ryan and Roethlisberger had more than Flacco's 14 TD passes.

I went into this assuming there would be more 1,000-yard receivers than rushers, strictly because of the pass-happy nature of today's NFL, plus the fact that more teams split carries now than before. But even Fitzgerald (58 catches for 780 yards and eight TDs in 2004) wasn't much more than a No. 3 fantasy option as a rookie. Same goes for 2004 draft classmates Roy Williams (54-817, 8 TDs) and Lee Evans 48-843, 9).

-- What about Braylon? The butter-fingered Edwards had 32 receptions for 512 yards and three TDs for the Browns in 2005.

-- Close calls and other WR notables: The Broncos' Eddie Royal was sensational last season (91 receptions), but fell 20 yards shy of 1,000. ... Philly's DeSean Jackson had 62 receptions for 912 yards and two scores in 2008. ... Of the triple-figure club, no one came closer to 1,000 than Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe, who had 70 catches for 995 yards and five TDs in 2007. ... Super Bowl MVP and former Buckeye Santonio Holmes had 49 catches for 824 yards and two TDs for the Steelers in 2006.

-- Run, rookie, run: Last season's rookie class was easily the best of the five, with Forte, Johnson and Slaton likely high first-round draft choices this season. The 2008 class also includes the Lions' Kevin Smith, who ran for 976 yards and eight TDs and caught 39 passes for 286 yards.

-- Reggie and MJD:
The Saints' Reggie Bush ran for only 565 yards in 2006, but he scored eight total TDs and had 88 receptions for 742 yards. It remains his best season. ... The Jags' Maurice Jones-Drew, a likely top-five pick this season with Fred Taylor no longer around to eat up carries, was a fantasy stud as a rookie in 2006, but didn't run for 1,000 yards. Jones-Drew had 941 yards on the ground, caught 46 passes for 436 yards and had 15 total TDs.

-- More RB notables: Ronnie Brown had 907 yards rushing, 32 receptions for 232 yards and five total TDs for Miami in 2005 -- the same year Cadillac had his only big season (1,178 yards, six TDs). ... Steven Jackson rushed for 673 yards and four TDs as a Rams rookie in 2004, the same year Kevin Jones had 1,133 yards and six total scores with the Lions. He hasn't rushed for more than 689 yards since.

-- Don't count on the tight ends. A quick look at some bigger-name tight ends as rookies -- 2008: John Carlson, Seahawks, 55 receptions, 627 yards, five TDs; Dustin Keller, Jets, 48-535, 3; 2007: Greg Olsen, Bears, 39-391, 2; Zach Miller, Raiders, 44-444, 3; 2006: Vernon Davis, 49ers, 20-265, 3; Owen Daniels, Texans, 34-352, 5; 2005: Heath Miller, Steelers, 39-459, 6; Alex Smith, Buccaneers, 41-367, 2; 2004: Kellen Winslow Jr., Browns, two games played; Ben Troupe, Titans, 33-329, 1; Chris Cooley, Redskins, 37-314, 6.

-- Although I didn't go back to 2003 for the other positions, I was curious to see how that class of tight ends -- Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark -- fared as rookies. All three had between 340 and 389 yards (led by Gates' 389), the trio combined for only four TDs (two by Gates) and Witten's 35 receptions were the most of the bunch.

The lesson, 12 long paragraphs later: On draft day 2009, know that rookie running backs have the greatest chance of success among the four primary positions. The problem, of course, is determining the right one.

Five backs were chosen in the first round in 2008 -- Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson -- and Stewart and Johnson were the only fantasy assets. Forte was a second-round pick by the Bears, Smith was selected 64th overall in Round 3, and Slaton (maybe the best of all) went 25 choices later at 89.

Could that mean big things from LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene or Glen Coffee?

That's more than enough numbers for now. Go to The News-Herald's Web site on Saturday for a breakdown of the struggling stars in fantasy baseball. The site also currently has a fantasy baseball and football audiocast.

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