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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Fantasy football: Week 6 waiver-wire picks

Ladies and gentlemen, it's Tebow time.

Either my quarterbacks in the News-Herald fantasy league have been atrocious or I'm a little too excited to acquire a quarterback whose accuracy has been panned by the experts and is more of a bull in the backfield than a precision passer.

OK, it's the former, thanks to my mistaken belief that I could wait on a QB in the draft and start Josh Freeman.

Because of that, I'll be among the many this week who will put a bid on Tim Tebow, who was named the Broncos' starting quarterback on Tuesday.

So what should we expect? We have that and more in this week's waiver-wire picks.

As always, we select players who are available in a majority of the leagues on ESPN.com. This week's group can be had in more than 90 percent of the ESPN formats.

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos (owned in 2.7 percent of the ESPN leagues): He completed only 4 of 10 passes for 79 yards in relief of Kyle Orton on Sunday, and ESPN's Todd McShay will tell you he'll never be a productive NFL quarterback.

From a fantasy perspective, however, here's what we know: Tebow played extensively in Denver's last three games in 2010. In those contests, he threw for 651 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. He also rushed 31 times for 199 yards and three TDs (one score in each game).

If you play in a league in which 100 rushing yards is worth 10 points, 100 passing yards is worth four, all touchdowns are six and interceptions are minus-2, Tebow averaged about 27 points per game.

In two quarters last week, he threw for a score and rushed for 38 yards and a TD.

The Broncos are off this week, so you will have to be more patient than normal, but the numbers say this: Whether it's pretty or not, Tebow will produce.

2. Jackie Battle, RB, Chiefs (owned in 0.8 percent of the ESPN leagues): We discussed Battle on Sunday night in this space. Like Tebow, his team is on a bye this week. Unlike Tebow, he will be sharing the load with Thomas Jones and maybe Dexter McCluster. At best, Battle should be considered a flex play in a 10- or 12-team league.

3. Alex Smith, QB, 49ers (owned in 9.2 percent of the ESPN leagues): Either Jim Harbaugh is a genius or Smith is finally getting it. Maybe both. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2005 NFL draft had been considered a bust until Harbaugh came aboard, and Smith has thrown for 965 yards, seven touchdowns and one pick in the 49ers' 4-1 start. He has a passer rating of 104.1, and has 461 yards, five TDs and no interceptions in his last two games.

His matchup this week (the 49ers play at Detroit) isn't favorable. The Lions have one more interception (seven) than TD passes allowed (six) this season, but if you are desperate for a QB, Smith is an upper-end No. 2 passer and could be a spot starter in fantasy.

4. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (owned in 0.8 percent of the ESPN formats): The undrafted rookie has been Seattle's most productive receiver (20 catches for 330 yards and two TDs). In his last two games, Baldwin has 13 receptions for 220 yards and one TD. With Mike Williams out because of a concussion Sunday, Baldwin excelled. When healthy, Williams (eight catches for 79 yards and one TD in four games) shouldn't be much of a threat to Baldwin's production. Seattle is off this week, but Baldwin could be a decent No. 3 or 4 fantasy receiver from Week 7 on.

5. Donald Brown, RB, Colts (owned in 1.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): To be blunt, Brown only has value if Joseph Addai sits because of an injured hamstring. Addai had an MRI on Monday, and the Colts have yet to reveal the results. If Addai is out this week at Cincinnati, Brown likely would share carries with rookie Delone Carter. The latter is a rookie who has received much more work than Brown, a 2009 first-round pick who has been a disappointment. But Carter is averaging only 3.0 yards on 41 carries this season, and Brown had eight attempts for 38 yards last week. Neither Carter nor Brown will solve any backfield problems you might have, but Brown could at least be a decent one-week fill-in if Addai is too injured to play.

6. Benjamin Watson, TE, Browns (owned in 9.0 percent of the ESPN leagues): The Browns have said they want to get Evan Moore more involved, but Watson continues to be the Browns' best tight end. He has 11 receptions for 112 yards and a TD in his last two games, and last season he set career highs in catches (68) and yards (763). He's best a bye-week fill-in or an upper-level backup, but Watson can be a spot starter at tight end in deep leagues.

Past waiver-wire picks who remain undervalued: Victor Cruz, WR, Giants (owned in 38.3 percent of the ESPN leagues); Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (6.4 percent); Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders (34.7 percent); Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals (38.5 percent).

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Thursday, October 14, 2010

Fantasy football: Tight end replacement options

If you drafted Packers tight end Jermichael Finley -- or if you're like the owner in one of my leagues who made what looked like a lopsided deal for Finley (before karma struck like an unblocked Matt Roth) -- you probably figured you didn't need a backup at the position.

After four games, you had a tight end on pace for 84 receptions for 1,204 yards, aka PPR Gold. In Week 5, however, Finley suffered a knee injury and was scheduled for surgery this week that we were led to believe would sideline him for 3 to 6 weeks.

Later in the week we learned the damage to Finley's knee was worse than originally believed, and he could be done for the season.

If you're looking for a tight end on the waiver wire, here are eight who are owned in fewer than 50 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com:

1. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions (owned in 7.8 percent of the ESPN leagues): His low ownership percentage is baffling, especially considering the 2009 first-round pick has at least six receptions in three of Detroit's five games and 91 yards or more in two of five contests. Pettigrew is on pace for 83 catches for 880 yards.

2. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots (44.1 percent):
The rookie has 17 receptions in his last three games, and the trade of Randy Moss should result in more targets and a quick end to his touchdown drought.

3. Tony Moeaki, Chiefs (11.9 percent): Another rookie, Moeaki has 16 catches for 173 yards and two TDs in four games. Dwayne Bowe has been so bad, Kansas City's best receiving threats are a tight end and a running back (Jamaal Charles).

4. Heath Miller, Steelers (46.1 percent):
We'll write more about Miller's increase in value because of Ben Roethlisberger's return in a column for Saturday's print and online editions, but here's a quick snippet: The tight end had 76 receptions for 789 yards and six TDs last season, but has been dropped in many leagues because the Steelers had the league's worst passing attack without their suspended QB.

5. John Carlson, Seahawks (23 percent):
He's not going to be a huge help in PPR formats, but Carlson can be expected to produce similar numbers to his stats from his first two NFL seasons (an average of 53 catches for 601 yards and six TDs in 2008 and '09).

6. Todd Heap, Ravens (19.8 percent): He had six receptions for 72 yards in Week 1, but has only 12 catches for 138 yards in four games since. At this point in his career, he's better suited to be a bye-week replacement option and not much more.

7. Benjamin Watson, Browns (4.6 percent): He has 20 receptions for 214 yards and one TD in his last four games. That's the good news. The bad: Rookie Colt McCoy will be his quarterback, and it might be for longer than this week's game at Pittsburgh.

8. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals (10.4 percent): Like Pettigrew, I'd expect Gresham to be a fantasy starter in Year 2, which in the latter's case is 2011. The 2010 first-round pick has had 35 receiving yards or fewer in four of five games, but is on pace for 70 catches.

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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 9

When us fantasy freaks think of things we need more of in the NFL, running-back committees rank far below DIRECTV's Sunday Ticket and slightly above more high-definition closeups of an annoyed Eric Mangini.

Well, buckle up, boys and girls, we've got another committee, thanks to one of this year's biggest busts, Steve Slaton.

Slaton was fantastic as a rookie last season, when he ran for 1,282 yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry, scored 10 touchdowns and caught 50 passes for 377 yards. This year, not so much.

The Texans running back was benched early last week after losing his fifth fumble of the season. In his place, Ryan Moats -- who had 56 yards in Houston's first seven games -- ran for 126 yards and three TDs on 23 carries and had two receptions for 25 yards.

That has led to speculation this week that Moats, who has 623 career rushing yards in limited duty since 2005, will take over as the Texans' featured back. Coach Gary Kubiak, however, has refused to name a starter, but did say Slaton, Moats and Chris Brown all will play.

Thanks, Coach. I'm sure this week's opponent, the Colts, are every bit as nervous as Slaton owners.

In Houston's first seven games, Slaton had 109 rushing attempts, Brown 36 and Moats 15. So what was a one-man attack is now a two-headed monster -- but not of the Saints variety (the productive Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell combo). Instead, it's more of a don't-play-either-unless-you-have-to-because-of-bye-weeks-situation.

Of the two, Moats has more value this week, since he should at least start. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could be a decent No. 2 running back going forward, when the Texans face the Titans (Week 11, No. 18 vs. the run), Jaguars (Week 13, No. 25 vs. the run) and Rams (Week 15, No. 28).

But at this point, you can't trust Slaton or Moats. Because six teams are off this week, Moats is a low-level No. 2 running back. Slaton is a reserve.

And committees continue to remind us of the evil doings of Mike Shanahan.

Replacement players

If you were among the unfortunate owners who lost standout tight ends Chris Cooley (who will miss at least another few weeks because of a broken ankle) and/or Owen Daniels (who will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury), let's look at five players who are available in the majority of the leagues on ESPN.com. We'll do so in descending order to build the drama:

5. Kevin Boss, Giants (owned in 39.5 percent of the ESPN leagues): He was impressive last season (33 catches for 384 yards and six touchdowns) and anything but in the Giants' first five games this year (11 receptions for 161 yards and zero scores). Boss had three catches for 70 yards and a TD last week, and he has six receptions in his last two games. The bad news: He's been limited this week by a sprained ankle (but he is expected to play). Week 9 opponent: Chargers (No. 6 vs. the pass).

4. Benjamin Watson, Patriots (30.2 percent): He has four touchdowns on the season, but six of his 15 catches and 77 of his 222 yards were in the Patriots' season opener (as were two of his TDs). Week 9 opponent: Dolphins(No. 21 vs. the pass).

3. Spencer Havner, Packers (1.6 percent): This seems like a reach, until you consider Havner has three touchdowns in the Pack's last two games. He's not going to be much of an asset in point-per-reception leagues, but with Jermichael Finley likely out again this week because of a knee injury, Havner could at least get you six points the old-fashioned, non-PPR way. Week 9 opponent: at Buccaneers (No. 15 vs. the pass).

2. Todd Heap, Ravens (41.8 percent): He's had three or more catches in five consecutive games, but he hasn't had a TD in that span after scoring twice in the first two weeks. Week 9 opponent: at Bengals (No. 30 vs. the pass).

1. Fred Davis, Redskins (3.1 percent): When Cooley was injured in Week 7 against the Eagles, Davis, a second-round pick in 2008, was targeted 10 times and caught eight passes for 78 yards and a TD. Considering Cooley has averaged 4.6 receptions per game since 2007, Davis figures to get plenty of opportunities to produce for a struggling offense. Week 9 opponent: at Falcons (No. 31 vs. the pass).

Start 'em

-- Matt Forte, RB, Bears: How much were his 90 yards rushing and two TDs a product of how awful the Browns have been? Likely quite a bit, but I would at least see how the 2008 rookie stud and '09 disappointment performs in tough matchups this week against the Cardinals (No. 8 vs. the run) and in Week 10 at the 49ers (No. 2).

-- Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers: With 11 catches and 15 targets in two games since ending his holdout, I'd consider the rookie an every-week starter in PPR leagues.

Sit 'em

-- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: He's thrown as many interceptions (11) as touchdown passes, and there are too many productive quarterbacks this season to continue starting him every week.

-- Eli Manning, QB, Giants: He hasn't thrown for more than 243 yards since Week 4, and he has twice as many picks (six) as TD tosses (three) in his last three games.

Drop 'em

-- Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys: Remember him? Whether Williams wants to admit it or not, and apparently he doesn't, Austin Miles is Dallas' top receiver. Williams has one TD since Week 1 and has had 35 receiving yards or fewer in four of his last five games. If you need the roster space and have a few productive receivers, he is a candidate to hit the waiver wire.

-- Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos: Another game, another shutout. It's amazing that a player who caught 91 passes as a rookie in 2008 has a total of 10 catches for 68 yards in six of Denver's seven games (Royal had 10 catches for 90 yards in the other, a Week 5 win over the Patriots). Royal has yet to reach the end zone, and it's hard to argue with letting him go at this point.

Closing numbers

Cardinals running back Tim Hightower -- who has struggled mightily on the ground (3.3 yards per carry this season and 2.9 in his two-year career) -- has four more catches (39) than teammate Anquan Boldin.

Hightower had 34 receptions in 16 games as a rookie last season. Boldin, who has battled injuries but played in all seven games this year, had 89 catches in 12 games in 2008. Hightower also has five TDs to Boldin's one in 2009.

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