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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Fantasy football: Start-and-sit for Thursday's Ravens-Falcons game

START 'EM

Ravens:
QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin, K Billy Cundiff, defense and special teams

Falcons: RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez, K Matt Bryant

Quick slants: Flacco has thrown for 801 yards and seven touchdowns (with no interceptions) in his last three games. ... Rice has been held to two touchdowns in eight games, but his Week 9 numbers (83 yards rushing, seven receptions for 97 yards) were encouraging. His previous high in receiving yards this season was 38. ... Boldin had his second-worst game of the year last week (two catches for 28 yards), but he's on pace for 80 catches and 10 TDs. ... Cundiff is averaging 7.6 points per game (not counting fantasy bonuses for field goals of 40 yards or more) and has 27 points in his last two contests. He is 7-for-8 in field goals and perfect in six point-after attempts in the two games. ... The Ravens' defense ranks sixth in points allowed per game (17.4) and ninth in total yards allowed (310.8). ... White is expected to play, despite injuring his knee last week. He is on pace for 116 catches for 1,592 yards and 10 TDs. ... Don't be hesitant to play Turner against the Ravens, who rank 13th against the run and have allowed five rushing TDs. Turner has 228 rushing yards and four TDs in his last two games. ... With White banged up last week, Gonzalez had his most receptions (eight) and yards (72) since Week 3.

SIT 'EM

Ravens: RB Willis McGahee, WR Derrick Mason, TE Todd Heap

Falcons: QB Matt Ryan, defense and special teams

Quick slants: McGahee had scored a TD in three consecutive games prior to being held out of the end zone in Week 9. Unless he scores, he's not worth playing (231 rushing yards, 48 receiving yards in eight games). ... Mason has been productive in two of his last three games, but Boldin is clearly the Ravens' top option, limiting Mason's value. The latter has had only two games with more than 48 receiving yards this season. ... Heap had a combined three TDs in Weeks 6 and 7. Take away those two games, and he has 20 catches for 233 yards and zero TDs in six contests. ... Ryan has start-worthy stats (1,949 yards, 13 TDs, five interceptions), but if you have a quality backup, I would sit him against a Ravens defense that ranks ninth against the pass and has as many interceptions (eight) as TD passes allowed. ... The Falcons' defense is tied for 21st in the league in total yards allowed per game (346.4). Atlanta is 10th in points allowed per game (19.3).

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Saturday, December 12, 2009

Fantasy football: Injury updates, start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist for Week 14

We'll breeze through this quicker than normal, thanks to some unforeseen problems (see tank, hot water), so let's get to this week's key injuries:

-- Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is listed as questionable with right shoulder and finger injuries, but I wouldn't worry about Brian Hoyer getting the start in a game New England can't afford to lose.

-- Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan likely will be a game-time decision because of a toe ailment, but I wouldn't start him even if he was healthy against the Saints, who have almost twice as many interceptions (23) as TD passes allowed (12).

-- Falcons running back Michael Turner is listed as questionable with a sprained anke and will be a game-time decision, but don't plan on him being active against the Saints.

-- Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams is probable, and the Rams' Steven Jackson is questionable after missing practice all week with a back injury, but he's had the same routine the last two weeks and not missed a game.

-- The Eagles' Brian Westbrook is out again, and the Bucs' Cadillac Williams is questionable with a back injury. He's not a good play against the Jets.

-- Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson will return from a concussion.

-- Jaguars receiver Mike Sims-Walker is doubtful with a calf injury. Mike Thomas will start in his place and should be considered a low-level No. 3 receiver against the Dolphins, who rank 24th vs. the pass.

-- Vikings receiver Percy Harvin is questionable after missing practice Thursday and Friday because of migraine headaches, but I would expect him to be active Sunday against the Bengals.

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

San Francisco QB Alex Smith (vs. the Cardinals, No. 27 vs. the pass), Ravens QB Joe Flacco (vs. the Lions, No. 32 vs. the pass), Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (vs. the Bills, No. 32 vs. the run), Bills running back Fred Jackson (at the Chiefs, No. 27 vs. the run) and Dolphins receiver Davone Bess (at the Jaguars, No. 23 vs. the pass) round out this week's list.

More matchups I like:


David Garrard, QB, Jaguars, vs. Dolphins; Chad Henne, QB, Dolphins, vs. Jaguars; Ryan Grant, RB, Packers, at Bears; Quinton Ganther, RB, Redskins, at Raiders; Terrell Owens, WR, Bills, at Chiefs; Kenny Britt, WR, Titans, vs. Rams; Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers, vs. Cardinals; Devery Henderson, WR, Saints, at Falcons

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

Bengals QB Carson Palmer (at the Vikings, No. 21 vs. the pass), Lions running back Kevin Smith (at the Ravens (No. 6 vs. the run) and Bucs running back Cadillac Williams (vs. the Jets, No. 17 vs. the run) comprise this week's selections.

More matchups I don’t like:

Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells, RBs, Cardinals, at 49ers; LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers, at Cowboys; Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers, vs. Jets

Last week

The start list had three hits in Jonathan Stewart (120 yards rushing, one TD, one reception), Matt Forte (91 yards rushing, one TD, one catch) and Kyle Orton (180 yards passing, two TDs, one interception). Pierre Thomas (18 yards rushing, eight catches for 64 yards) was decent in point-per-reception leagues, and Jason Avant (three receptions for 36 yards) stunk in all formats.

On the sit list, benching Cardinals running backs Tim Hightower (50 yards rushing, one catch, one fumble) and Beanie Wells (28 yards rushing) was the right call, but sitting Tony Romo (392 yards passing, three TDs, no picks) certainly was not.

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Drew Brees, Saints, at Falcons (No. 29 vs. the pass)
2. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Panthers (No. 6)
3. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, at 49ers (No. 30)
4. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. Broncos (No. 2)
5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Bears (No. 9)
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers, at Cowboys (No. 20)
7. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Seahawks (No. 25)
8. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Chargers (No. 8)
9. Alex Smith, 49ers, vs. Cardinals (No. 27)
10. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, at Giants (No. 7)
11. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. Bengals (No. 12)
12. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Lions (No. 32)
13. David Garrard, Jaguars, vs. Dolphins (No. 24)
14. Carson Palmer, Bengals, at Vikings (No. 21)
15. Kyle Orton, Broncos, at Colts (No. 19)
16. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, at Texans (No. 14)
17. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Packers (No. 3)
18. Jason Campbell, Redskins, at Raiders (No. 18)
19. Chad Henne, Dolphins, at Jaguars (No. 23)
20. Matt Cassel, Chiefs, vs. Bills (No. 4)

RUNNING BACKS
1. Chris Johnson, Titans, vs. Rams (No. 28 vs. the run)
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, vs. Dolphins (No. 14)
3. Ray Rice, Ravens, vs. Lions (No. 19)
4. Thomas Jones, Jets, at Buccaneers (No. 31)
5. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. Bengals (No. 2)
6. Ricky Williams, Dolphins, at Jaguars (No. 11)
7. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Broncos (No. 16)
8. Steven Jackson, Rams, at Titans (No. 8)
9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, vs. Bills (No. 32)
10. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Patriots (No. 15)
11. Frank Gore, 49ers, vs. Cardinals (No. 12)
12. Cedric Benson, Bengals, at Vikings (No. 3)
13. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Bears (No. 25)
14. Fred Jackson, Bills, at Chiefs (No. 27)
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, vs. Eagles (No. 7)
16. Pierre Thomas, Saints, at Falcons (No. 23)
17. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, at Colts (No. 18)
18. Laurence Maroney, Patriots, at Panthers (No. 26)
19. Marion Barber, Cowboys, vs. Chargers (No. 21)
20. LeSean McCoy, Eagles, at Giants (No. 10)
21. Matt Forte, Bears, vs. Packers (No. 3)
22. Julius Jones, Seahawks, at Texans (No. 22)
23. Quinton Ganther, Redskins, at Raiders (No. 30)
24. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Cowboys (No. 9)

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, at 49ers (No. 27 vs. the pass)
2. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Seahawks (No. 25)
3. Marques Colston, Saints, at Falcons (No. 29)
4. Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Panthers (No. 6)
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. Broncos (No. 2)
6. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Panthers (No. 6)
7. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, at 49ers (No. 27)
8. Roddy White, Falcons, vs. Saints (No. 22)
9. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Cowboys (No. 20)
10. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Colts (No. 19)
11. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Lions (No. 32)
12. Calvin Johnson, Lions, at Ravens (No. 15)
13. Donald Driver, Packers, at Bears (No. 9)
14. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, at Vikings (No. 21)
15. Steve Smith, Giants, vs. Eagles (No. 10)
16. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Patriots (No. 13)
17. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, at Giants (No. 7)
18. Miles Austin, Cowboys, vs. Chargers (No. 8)
19. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Bears (No. 9)
20. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, at Texans (No. 14)
21. x-Percy Harvin, Vikings, vs. Bengals (No. 12)
22. Terrell Owens, Bills, at Chiefs (No. 28)
23. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, at Texans (No. 14)
24. Sidney Rice, Vikings, vs. Bengals (No. 12)
25. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, vs. Cardinals (No. 30)
26. Devery Henderson, Saints, at Falcons (No. 29)
27. Davone Bess, Dolphins, at Jaguars (No. 23)
28. Pierre Garcon, Colts, vs. Broncos (No. 2)
29. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles, at Giants (No. 7)
30. Mario Manningham, Giants, vs. Eagles (No. 10)
31. Donnie Avery, Rams, at Titans (No. 31)
32. Kenny Britt, Titans, vs. Rams (No. 16)
33. Chris Chambers, Chiefs, vs. Bills (No. 4)
34. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, at Buccaneers (No. 11)
35. Santana Moss, Redskins, at Raiders (No. 18)
36. Mike Thomas, Jaguars, vs. Dolphins (No. 24)
x-Make sure Harvin is active.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL:
Which teams have the best matchups the next three weeks, and which have the worst? Kevin Kleps has the answers here.

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Saturday, November 7, 2009

Fantasy football: Injury updates, start-and-sit advice, expanded playlist and more for Week 9

Let's get to the usual round of injury updates, led again this week by the wideouts:

-- Anquan Boldin and Devin Hester both have sprained ankles, and both are expected to play. I'd consider Boldin a No. 2 receiver this week against the Bears, and Hester a No. 3 against the Cards' No. 20 pass defense.

-- Calvin Johnson is expected to return from a knee injury, and Mario Manningham should play through a shoulder ailment. Johnson is a low-end No. 2, high-end No. 3 wide receiver this week, and I wouldn't play Manningham unless I was desperate because of injury or bye-week issues.

-- Bucs receiver Antonio Bryant (knee) will be a game-time decision, but the combination of his 2009 struggles and the first start for rookie QB Josh Freeman should prevent you from playing the '08 fantasy surprise.

-- Lions running back Kevin Smith (shoulder) likely will play in pain again, but isn't a quality option against the Seahawks (see below).

On to the start-and-sit lists, and a reminder that if you have a lineup question, e-mail me at the address above instead of posting a comment at the end of the blog.

Five to start


This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, at Bengals: His touchdown totals in his last five games: 1-2-1-2-1. Even more reason to like Flacco’s chances of throwing for at least a pair of scores against the Bengals’ No. 30 pass defense.

-- Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles, vs. Cowboys: He’s barely throwing for more than 200 yards per game, but he does have nine TDs and only one interception in five contests. Expect McNabb to have a big game vs. Dallas, which ranks 22st defending the pass.

-- Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs, at Jaguars: The suspended Larry Johnson won’t play this week (and maybe not again for the Chiefs), leaving the bulk of the carries to Charles. The second-year back has been impressive in limited duty, and he should produce vs. the Jags, who rank 25th vs. the run.

-- Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks, vs. Lions: After a productive start to the season, Jones has been held to 120 yards rushing in his last four games. The guess here is he’ll break out against the Lions (No. 21 vs. the run).

-- Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers, vs. Titans:
He has 13 receptions in two games since ending his holdout, and the rookie should score his first touchdown against the league’s worst pass defense, one that has allowed a league-high 19 TD tosses.

More matchups I like:

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, vs. Redskins; Mike Bell, RB, Saints, vs. Panthers; Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants, vs. Chargers; Steve Breaston, WR, Cardinals, at Bears

Three to sit

If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears, vs. Cardinals: He has thrown six interceptions in his last three games, four (with only one touchdown pass) in his last two and has as many picks (11) as TD tosses (11) on the season.

-- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos, vs. Steelers: There aren’t many backs who are quality plays against the Steelers’ top-ranked run defense, one that has allowed only two rushing TDs and has given up 76.6 yards per game on the ground. Moreno has rushed for only 83 yards in Denver’s last two games.

-- Kevin Smith, RB, Lions, at Seahawks: He’s battling a shoulder injury, and Seattle has been surprisingly decent (No. 10) against the run. Smith hasn’t scored in his last three games.

More matchups I don’t like:


Eli Manning, QB, Giants, vs. Chargers; Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins, at Patriots; Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots, vs. Dolphins; Steve Slaton, RB, Texans, at Colts

Last week

The start list had two standouts in Matt Forte (90 yards rushing, two touchdowns and two catches for 31 yards) and LaDainian Tomlinson (56 yards rushing and two TDs). Devin Hester (seven catches for 81 yards) was decent, and the two Jaguars on the list — David Garrard (139 yards passing, 22 yards rushing, two interceptions) and Torry Holt (two catches for 17 yards) — were busts.

The sit list had two good calls in Joe Flacco (175 yards passing and one TD) and Ahmad Bradshaw (21 yards rushing, one TD) and one bad one in Donovan McNabb (240 yards passing, three touchdowns and 14 yards rushing).

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. Texans (No. 14 vs. the pass)
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Buccaneers (No. 15)
3. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Dolphins (No. 21)
4. Drew Brees, Saints, vs. Panthers (No. 1)
5. Joe Flacco, Ravens, at Bengals (No. 30)
6. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, vs. Cowboys (No. 22)
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers, at Giants (No. 3)
8. Matt Schaub, Texans, at Colts (No. 7)
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons, vs. Redskins (No. 2)
10. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, at Bears (No. 12)
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys, at Eagles (No. 10)
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Broncos (No. 8)
13. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Ravens (No. 19)
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, vs. Lions (No. 27)
15. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Cardinals (No. 20)
16. Eli Manning, Giants, vs. Chargers (No. 6)
17. Kyle Orton, Broncos, vs. Steelers (No. 16)
18. Matt Cassel, Patriots, at Jaguars (No. 26)
19. David Garrard, Jaguars, vs. Chiefs (tied for No. 28)
20. Alex Smith, 49ers, vs. Titans (No. 32)

RUNNING BACKS
1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, vs. Chiefs (No. 26 vs. the run)
2. Michael Turner, Falcons, vs. Redskins (No. 22)
3. Ray Rice, Ravens, at Bengals (No. 5)
4. Frank Gore, 49ers, vs. Titans (No. 18)
5. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Saints (No. 11)
6. Chris Johnson, Titans, at 49ers (No. 2)
7. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Buccaneers (No. 30
8. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Ravens (No. 4)
9. Pierre Thomas, Saints, vs. Panthers (No. 24)
10. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Texans (No. 20
11. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, at Patriots (No. 15)
12. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, vs. Chargers (No. 27)
13. Marion Barber, Cowboys, at Eagles (No. 12)
14. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, at Broncos (No. 3)
15. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Giants (No. 19)
16. Clinton Portis, Redskins, at Falcons (No. 23)
17. Brian Westbrook, Eagles, vs. Cowboys (No. 13)
18. Matt Forte, Bears, vs. Cardinals (No. 8)
19. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, at Jaguars (No. 25)
20. Julius Jones, Seahawks, vs. Lions (No. 21)
21. Mike Bell, Saints, vs. Panthers (No. 24)
22. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, at Saints (No. 11)
23. Ryan Moats, Texans, at Colts (No. 17)
24. Tim Hightower, Cardinals, at Bears (No. 16)

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Dolphins (No. 21 vs. the pass)
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. Texans (No. 14)
3. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Buccaneers (No. 15)
4. Marques Colston, Saints, vs. Panthers (No. 1)
5. Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Dolphins (No. 21)
6. Andre Johnson, Texans, at Colts (No. 7)
7. Roddy White, Falcons, vs. Redskins (No. 2)
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, at Bears (No. 12)
9. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, vs. Ravens (No. 19)
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Giants (No. 3)
11. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Cowboys (No. 22)
12. Donald Driver, Packers, at Buccaneers (No. 15)
13. Derrick Mason, Ravens, at Bengals (No. 30)
14. Miles Austin, Cowboys, at Eagles (No. 10)
15. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Saints (No. 17)
16. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Broncos (No. 8)
17. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, vs. Steelers (No. 16)
18. Steve Smith, Giants, vs. Chargers (No. 6)
19. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, at Titans (No. 32)
20. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, vs. Lions (No. 27)
21. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. Lions (No. 27)
22. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, vs. Chiefs (tied for No. 28)
23. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, at Bears (No. 12)
24. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Broncos (No. 8)
25. Calvin Johnson, Lions, at Seahawks (No. 18)
26. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, at Jaguars (No. 26)
27. Santana Moss, Redskins, at Falcons (No. 31)
28. Devin Hester, Bears, vs. Cardinals (No. 20)
29. Austin Collie, Colts, vs. Texans (No. 14)
30. Steve Breaston, Cardinals, at Bears (No. 12)
31. Hakeem Nicks, Giants, vs. Chargers (No. 6)
32. Torry Holt, Jaguars, vs. Chiefs (tied for No. 28)
33. Roy Williams, Cowboys, at Eagles (No. 10)
34. Kevin Walter, Texans, at Colts (No. 7)
35. Johnny Knox, Bears, vs. Cardinals (No. 20)
36. Nate Washington, Titans, at 49ers (tied for No. 28)

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL:
For a breakdown of five players to trade and five players to acquire as we begin the second half of the fantasy season, click here. The link also includes this week’s audiocast.

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Saturday, September 12, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit, expanded playlist and more for Week 1

The predictions, prognostications and prolonged holdouts are all behind us (well, expect for you, Michael Crabtree), and it's finally time for a full slate of Week 1 games.

Before we get to the start-and-sit advice and the expanded playlist, here are a couple quick plugs.

-- Click here for a column I wrote today about Brandon Marshall, which includes injury advice and thoughts from Thursday's season opener. The link also has the audiocast Sports Editor Mark Podolski and I record each week.

-- We'll have a live fantasy football chat on the N-H's Web site this Thursday at 4 p.m. Go to the homepage of www.News-Herald.com and look for the link to the chat at the top.

-- If you have a question, e-mail KKleps@News-Herald.com or post a comment at the bottom of this blog and we'll answer it in the audiocast or the Saturday blog.

On to the lists ...

Five to start

Our first look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Reggie Bush, RB, Saints, vs. Lions: Pierre Thomas is out because of a knee injury, which should mean more touches for Bush against a Lions defense that was the league's worst against the run last season, allowing an average of 172.1 yards per game, along with a league-high 31 rushing TDs. Detroit also ranked 27th against the pass, which should mean six or more catches for Bush. Another player to watch in this game: Mike Bell, who should share carries with Bush with Thomas sitting.

-- Donnie Avery, WR, Rams, at Seahawks: He's recovered from a foot injury that held him out of the majority of the preseason, and he gets to open the real season against 2008's worst pass defense. The Seahawks allowed 259 passing yards per game last season. Opposing quarterbacks had 25 TD throws and just nine interceptions.

-- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Chiefs: He should be more productive in Year 2, and there's no telling how bad the Chiefs' defense will be in the first year of the Todd Haley/Scott Pioli regime. Kansas City's pass defense was the league's fifth-worst last season.

-- Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks, vs. Rams: He reportedly is healthy after a back injury wrecked his 2008 season, and he should have a big day against the Rams, who were 19th vs. the pass in 2008.

-- Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals, vs. Broncos: The once-troubled Bear wasn't featured at all on "Hard Knocks," but he should play a prominent role against a Broncos run defense that ranked 27th in 2008, yielding 146.1 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per attempt and 26 TDs on the ground (the second-most in the NFL).

-- More favorable matchups: Seahawks running back Julius Jones vs. the Rams, who ranked 29th against the run in 2008; Ravens running back Ray Rice against the Chiefs (No. 30); Cardinals running back Beanie Wells against the 49ers; 49ers wide receiver Isaac Bruce at the Cardinals (No. 22 vs. the pass); Seahawks receiver Nate Burleson against the Rams (No. 19); and if Anquan Boldin doesn't play because of a hamstring injury, Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston vs. the 49ers (No. 20).

Three to sit


If you have a quality backup with a favorable matchup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders, vs. Chargers: This is more of an indictment of the Raiders' weapons-less offense that it is an endorsement of the Chargers' defense, which ranked 11th vs. the run last season.

-- Santana Moss, WR, Redskins, at Giants:
The frustrating thing for Moss owners is his inconsistency, and the Giants were very good defending the pass last season (No. 8, 196 yards per game, 17 TDs, 17 interceptions).

-- Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs, at Ravens: He probably can't be called an every-week starter at this stage of his career, and he should definitely be on your bench against the Ravens, who ranked third vs. the run in 2008 and allowed the fewest rushing TDs (4) in the NFL.

-- More matchups I don't like:
Roy Williams, WR, Dallas, at Buccaneers (No. 4 vs. pass last season); Lee Evans, WR, Bills, at Patriots (No. 11); any New York Giants receiver vs. the Redskins (I'd prefer to wait to see if Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith are Eli Manning's preferred targets); Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos, at Bengals (will he get the majority of the carries or share with Correll Buckhalter?); Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns, vs. Vikings (the league's top run defense a year ago).

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Drew Brees, Saints, vs. Lions (No. 27 vs. the pass in 2008)
2. Tom Brady, Patriots, vs. Bills (13)
3. Kurt Warner, Cardinals, vs. 49ers (20)
4. Peyton Manning, Colts, vs. Jaguars (24)
5. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Raiders (10)
6. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, vs. Bears (30)
7. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Jets (29)
8. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, at Panthers (16)
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons, vs. Dolphins (25)
10. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Broncos (26)
11. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, vs. Rams (19)
12. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Chiefs (28)
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys, at Buccaneers (4)
14. Jay Cutler, Bears, at Packers (12)
15. Shaun Hill, 49ers, at Cardinals (22)
16. Chad Pennington, Dolphins, at Falcons (21)
17. Eli Manning, Giants, vs. Redskins (7)
18. Brett Favre, Vikings, at Browns (14)
19. David Garrard, Jaguars, at Colts (6)
20. Trent Edwards, Bills, at Patriots (11)

RUNNING BACKS
1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, at Browns (No. 28 vs. the run in 2008)
2. Matt Forte, Bears, at Packers (26)
3. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, at Raiders (31)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at Colts (24)
5. Steven Jackson, Rams, at Seahawks (18)
6. Brian Westbrook, Eagles, at Panthers (20)
7. Michael Turner, Falcons, vs. Dolphins (10)
8. Thomas Jones, Jets, at Texans (23)
9. Steve Slaton, Texans, vs. Jets (7)
10. Frank Gore, 49ers, at Cardinals (16)
11. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, at Falcons (25)
12. Brandon Jacobs, Giants, vs. Redskins (8)
13. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, vs. Eagles (4)
14. Marion Barber, Cowboys, at Buccaneers (19)
15. Ryan Grant, Packers, vs. Bears (5)
16. Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Broncos (27)
17. Kevin Smith, Lions, at Saints (17)
18. Reggie Bush, Saints, vs. Lions (32)
19. Ray Rice, Ravens, vs. Chiefs (30)
20. Clinton Portis, Redskins, at Giants (9)
21. Julius Jones, Seahawks, vs. Rams (29)
22. Joseph Addai, Colts, vs. Jaguars (13)
23. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers, vs. Cowboys (12)
24. Beanie Wells, Cardinals, vs. 49ers (13)

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Dolphins (No. 25 vs. the pass in 2008)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, vs. 49ers (20)
3. Randy Moss, Patriots, vs. Bills (13)
4. Roddy White, Falcons, vs. Dolphins (25)
5. Marques Colston, Saints, vs. Lions (27)
6. Reggie Wayne, Colts, vs. Jaguars (24)
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, vs. Rams (19)
8. Greg Jennings, Packers, vs. Bears (30)
9. Calvin Johnson, Lions, at Saints (23)
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, at Raiders (10)
11. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, vs. Broncos (26)
12. Steve Smith, Panthers, vs. Eagles (3)
13. Wes Welker, Patriots, vs. Bills (13)
14. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, at Panthers (16)
15. Lance Moore, Saints, vs. Lions (27)
16. Eddie Royal, Broncos, at Bengals (15)
17. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts, vs. Jaguars (24)
18. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Chiefs (28)
19. Terrell Owens, Bills, at Patriots (11)
20. Donnie Avery, Rams, at Seahawks (32)
21. Kevin Walter, Texans, vs. Jets (29)
22. Braylon Edwards, Browns, vs. Vikings (18)
23. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, at Bengals (15)
24. x-Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, vs. 49ers (20)
25. Bernard Berrian, Vikings, at Browns (14)
26. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, at Ravens (2)
27. Donald Driver, Packers, vs. Bears (30)
28. Laveranues Coles, Bengals, vs. Broncos (26)
29. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, at Texans (17)
30. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers, vs. Cowboys (5)
31. Torry Holt, Jaguars, at Colts (6)
32. Roy Williams, Cowboys, at Buccaneers (4)
33. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins, at Falcons (21)
34. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, vs. Rams (19)
35. Isaac Bruce, 49ers, at Cardinals (22)
36. Devin Hester, Bears, at Packers (12)

x-Make sure Boldin (hamstring injury) plays. If not, teammate Steve Breaston would be a good start.

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fantasy football: More NFL draft numbers

In a column for the print editions two weeks ago, I broke down the success -- or lack thereof -- of rookie quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers from a fantasy perspective.

A quick recap: Since 2004, only four quarterbacks have thrown for 2,500 yards or more and at least 10 touchdowns as rookies -- Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008, Matt Leinart in 2006 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. There have been eight rookie running backs to record 1,000 yards on the ground -- Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton last season, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in 2007, Joseph Addai in 2006, Cadillac Williams in 2005 and Kevin Jones (yes, Kevin Jones; he was such a surprise I omitted him in the previous column) in 2004. And the most surprising stat: Only two wide receivers have had 1,000-yard campaigns in their first seasons, and Larry Fitzgerald wasn't one of them. The two are Marques Colston in 2006 and the seldom-heard-from-since Michael Clayton in 2004.

Some leftover statistics from that analysis:

-- Where are the receivers? It goes without saying that quarterbacks can't be trusted as fantasy options as rookies. Of the four QBs to reach the aforementioned plateau, only Ryan threw for 3,000 yards (3,440 with the Falcons in 2008), and only Ryan and Roethlisberger had more than Flacco's 14 TD passes.

I went into this assuming there would be more 1,000-yard receivers than rushers, strictly because of the pass-happy nature of today's NFL, plus the fact that more teams split carries now than before. But even Fitzgerald (58 catches for 780 yards and eight TDs in 2004) wasn't much more than a No. 3 fantasy option as a rookie. Same goes for 2004 draft classmates Roy Williams (54-817, 8 TDs) and Lee Evans 48-843, 9).

-- What about Braylon? The butter-fingered Edwards had 32 receptions for 512 yards and three TDs for the Browns in 2005.

-- Close calls and other WR notables: The Broncos' Eddie Royal was sensational last season (91 receptions), but fell 20 yards shy of 1,000. ... Philly's DeSean Jackson had 62 receptions for 912 yards and two scores in 2008. ... Of the triple-figure club, no one came closer to 1,000 than Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe, who had 70 catches for 995 yards and five TDs in 2007. ... Super Bowl MVP and former Buckeye Santonio Holmes had 49 catches for 824 yards and two TDs for the Steelers in 2006.

-- Run, rookie, run: Last season's rookie class was easily the best of the five, with Forte, Johnson and Slaton likely high first-round draft choices this season. The 2008 class also includes the Lions' Kevin Smith, who ran for 976 yards and eight TDs and caught 39 passes for 286 yards.

-- Reggie and MJD:
The Saints' Reggie Bush ran for only 565 yards in 2006, but he scored eight total TDs and had 88 receptions for 742 yards. It remains his best season. ... The Jags' Maurice Jones-Drew, a likely top-five pick this season with Fred Taylor no longer around to eat up carries, was a fantasy stud as a rookie in 2006, but didn't run for 1,000 yards. Jones-Drew had 941 yards on the ground, caught 46 passes for 436 yards and had 15 total TDs.

-- More RB notables: Ronnie Brown had 907 yards rushing, 32 receptions for 232 yards and five total TDs for Miami in 2005 -- the same year Cadillac had his only big season (1,178 yards, six TDs). ... Steven Jackson rushed for 673 yards and four TDs as a Rams rookie in 2004, the same year Kevin Jones had 1,133 yards and six total scores with the Lions. He hasn't rushed for more than 689 yards since.

-- Don't count on the tight ends. A quick look at some bigger-name tight ends as rookies -- 2008: John Carlson, Seahawks, 55 receptions, 627 yards, five TDs; Dustin Keller, Jets, 48-535, 3; 2007: Greg Olsen, Bears, 39-391, 2; Zach Miller, Raiders, 44-444, 3; 2006: Vernon Davis, 49ers, 20-265, 3; Owen Daniels, Texans, 34-352, 5; 2005: Heath Miller, Steelers, 39-459, 6; Alex Smith, Buccaneers, 41-367, 2; 2004: Kellen Winslow Jr., Browns, two games played; Ben Troupe, Titans, 33-329, 1; Chris Cooley, Redskins, 37-314, 6.

-- Although I didn't go back to 2003 for the other positions, I was curious to see how that class of tight ends -- Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark -- fared as rookies. All three had between 340 and 389 yards (led by Gates' 389), the trio combined for only four TDs (two by Gates) and Witten's 35 receptions were the most of the bunch.

The lesson, 12 long paragraphs later: On draft day 2009, know that rookie running backs have the greatest chance of success among the four primary positions. The problem, of course, is determining the right one.

Five backs were chosen in the first round in 2008 -- Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson -- and Stewart and Johnson were the only fantasy assets. Forte was a second-round pick by the Bears, Smith was selected 64th overall in Round 3, and Slaton (maybe the best of all) went 25 choices later at 89.

Could that mean big things from LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene or Glen Coffee?

That's more than enough numbers for now. Go to The News-Herald's Web site on Saturday for a breakdown of the struggling stars in fantasy baseball. The site also currently has a fantasy baseball and football audiocast.

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