ESPN fantasy analyst Matthew Berry started an interesting debate Tuesday when he ranked Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski ninth overall in his early top 100 for 2012.

A tight end in the top 10?

Even during Antonio Gates' back-to-back boom seasons of 2004 and '05, he was a fourth-round pick in fantasy. In those two years, Gates had a combined 170 catches for 2,065 yards and 23 touchdowns in 30 games.

This season, Gronk was much better. Ninety receptions for 1,327 yards. Seventeen receiving touchdowns (and 18 overall) -- the most ever for a tight end.

Berry's ranking, and the cyber-arguing that ensued, compelled me to look up Tony Gonzalez's numbers during his time as a stud with the Chiefs.

In 2000, Gonzalez posted similar numbers to Gronkowski in receptions (93) and yards (1,203), but he reached the end zone nine times. In 2004, he had 102 catches for 1,258 yards -- and seven TDs. In 2007 and '08, he had norms of 98 receptions for 1,115 yards, but he scored only five and 10 times, respectively.

Again, no comparison to the Gronk. Maybe the latter really is that good.

Here's my problem with taking a tight end in the top 10 of a draft:

OK, two problems: 1. There is no guarantee Gronkowski will come close to those numbers in 2012, especially in TDs -- the area in which he truly separated himself from past versions of Gates and Gonzalez. 2. He has a very good teammate who plays the same position, Aaron Hernandez, who was among the top three or four tight ends in fantasy in 2011.

Yes, the Patriots will throw it enough to make both Gronkowski and Hernandez happy, especially since the tight ends are their best options aside from wide receiver Wes Welker.

But if you're going to take a tight end that high, he better be as good as Gronkowski -- and the Saints' Jimmy Graham -- were in 2011.

I also understand the argument that there is a bigger difference between the top two tight ends -- Gronk and Graham -- and the rest of the position than there is at other positions.

I still can't shake this thought, though: If you take a tight end in the first round, you might be left scrambling at running back and/or wide receiver in the latter rounds.

You could get lucky -- see Jackson, Fred; Bush, Reggie; Cruz, Victor; Nelson, Jordy; or several other examples.

Or you could get the Felix Jones-Jonathan Stewart, no-playoffs platter.

Maybe I'm old school, but I'd rather take my chances at tight end with the likes of Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Brandon Pettigrew, Gates or Vernon Davis later in the draft, after I select a stud quarterback and, hopefully, a very good running back and receiver.

If you take Gronkowski in the top 10, you can still get a very good back or receiver early in Round 2. And you'll be left to hope you hit a couple of home runs in Rounds 3, 4 and/or 5.

It was the Year of the Quarterback.

Will 2012 be the Year a Tight End Makes the First Round?

My guess is no.

START

Jaguars: RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Falcons: QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez, K Matt Bryant, defense and special teams

Quick slants: Jones-Drew -- who has rushed for 1,222 yards, caught 35 passes for 348 yards and scored 10 touchdowns (four of them last week) -- is the only Jaguar worth playing. ... Ryan has thrown for 1,791 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions in his last six games. He has averaged 303 yards in his last five. ... Turner is expected to play with a groin injury, and he is a somewhat risky start for the fantasy semifinals because of the ailment and a three-game stretch in which he has rushed for only 180 yards, averaged 3.3 yards per attempt and been held out of the end zone. I'd play him, but I wouldn't feel great about it. ... White has 28 receptions for 402 yards and three TDs in his last four games, and he has scored in three straight. It's his best stretch since his sensational 2010 season (115 catches, 1,389 yards, 10 TDs). ... The 35-year-old Gonzalez is having his best year since going to Atlanta in 2009. He has 23 catches for 251 yards in his last three games and 73 receptions for 812 yards and seven TDs on the year. ... Bryant has scored 96 points and has misfired on just two kicks (21 of 23 field goals and perfect on 33 extra points). ... The Falcons' defense ranks 14th overall (336.5 yards per game), fifth against the run (not good news for MJD owners) and 22nd vs. the pass. The Falcons have 25 sacks and should be able to have their way with rookie Jags QB Blaine Gabbert.

SIT

Jaguars: QB Blaine Gabbert, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, defense and special teams

Falcons: WR Julio Jones

Quick slants: If you're wondering why we didn't list a Jaguars wide receiver, it's this: Jacksonville, amazingly, has zero players with 400 yards receiving. The Jags' leader in receiving yards is Mike Thomas, who has 391 yards and a norm of only 9.8 yards per catch. ... Gabbert has completed 50.3 percent of his passes and has 1,783 yards, 10 TDs and nine interceptions. ... Lewis had a breakout 2010 (58 receptions for 700 yards and 10 TDs) to earn a big contract extension, but he has yet to find the end zone this season. He has 32 catches for 385 yards. ... Scobee, like Bryant, has missed two kicks, but he hasn't had nearly as many opportunities (18 of 20 field goals and perfect on 19 PATs). ... The Jaguars' defense has been pretty darn good -- No. 4 overall (302.3 yards per game), No. 16 vs. the run (111.5) and No. 4 vs. the pass (191). But I wouldn't be anxious to play them at Atlanta, which has scored at least 23 points in seven of its last eight games and is averaging 25.3 points in its last four home contests. ... Jones is a tempting start after catching seven passes for 174 yards and two TDs in his last two games, but he tends to be all or nothing, which is extremely risky at this time of year. In Jones' four 100-yard games, he has a combined 23 receptions for 477 yards and four TDs. In his six other contests, he has 14 receptions for 193 yards and zero TDs.

START 'EM

Ravens: QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin, K Billy Cundiff, defense and special teams

Falcons: RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez, K Matt Bryant

Quick slants: Flacco has thrown for 801 yards and seven touchdowns (with no interceptions) in his last three games. ... Rice has been held to two touchdowns in eight games, but his Week 9 numbers (83 yards rushing, seven receptions for 97 yards) were encouraging. His previous high in receiving yards this season was 38. ... Boldin had his second-worst game of the year last week (two catches for 28 yards), but he's on pace for 80 catches and 10 TDs. ... Cundiff is averaging 7.6 points per game (not counting fantasy bonuses for field goals of 40 yards or more) and has 27 points in his last two contests. He is 7-for-8 in field goals and perfect in six point-after attempts in the two games. ... The Ravens' defense ranks sixth in points allowed per game (17.4) and ninth in total yards allowed (310.8). ... White is expected to play, despite injuring his knee last week. He is on pace for 116 catches for 1,592 yards and 10 TDs. ... Don't be hesitant to play Turner against the Ravens, who rank 13th against the run and have allowed five rushing TDs. Turner has 228 rushing yards and four TDs in his last two games. ... With White banged up last week, Gonzalez had his most receptions (eight) and yards (72) since Week 3.

SIT 'EM

Ravens: RB Willis McGahee, WR Derrick Mason, TE Todd Heap

Falcons: QB Matt Ryan, defense and special teams

Quick slants: McGahee had scored a TD in three consecutive games prior to being held out of the end zone in Week 9. Unless he scores, he's not worth playing (231 rushing yards, 48 receiving yards in eight games). ... Mason has been productive in two of his last three games, but Boldin is clearly the Ravens' top option, limiting Mason's value. The latter has had only two games with more than 48 receiving yards this season. ... Heap had a combined three TDs in Weeks 6 and 7. Take away those two games, and he has 20 catches for 233 yards and zero TDs in six contests. ... Ryan has start-worthy stats (1,949 yards, 13 TDs, five interceptions), but if you have a quality backup, I would sit him against a Ravens defense that ranks ninth against the pass and has as many interceptions (eight) as TD passes allowed. ... The Falcons' defense is tied for 21st in the league in total yards allowed per game (346.4). Atlanta is 10th in points allowed per game (19.3).

We'll get to Tony Romo's possible season-ending injury later this week, but first let's take a quick look around the NFL from a fantasy standpoint after a Week 7 that was more high-scoring than an old-school Golden State Warriors game.

Start 'em

-- Dwayne Bowe, we'll give you the benefit of the doubt after catching nine passes for 189 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games. But like colleague Mark Podolski, I don't trust you, not after you had nine catches for 152 yards and one TD in the Chiefs' first four games.

-- Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers: He has 35 carries for 226 yards (6.5 average) and one TD in his last three games. He's only receiving about 15 touches per game, but he has made them count of late. In point-per-reception leagues, Jackson has been valuable the last few weeks (he has 11 catches for 100 yards in the three-game span).

-- Mike Williams, WR, Seahawks: He has 21 catches for 210 yards in his last two games. Maybe Pete Carroll knows what he's doing. Or was it Matt Millen?

Sit 'em

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: I give up. Cutler has thrown one TD pass and been picked off five times in his last three games. He had the reverse (five TDs and one pick) in his first two contests. He just got sacked while you read those two sentences.

-- Brent Celek, TE, Eagles: He was very productive last season (76 catches, 971 yards and eight TDs), but apparently Donovan McNabb took Celek's value with him to Washington. Celek has scored twice, and both passes were from Kevin Kolb, who will be benched in favor of Michael Vick when the Eagles return from their Week 8 bye. Celek has 229 yards in seven games.

Stock down

-- Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: Roddy White is so excellent Gonzalez is an afterthought. The game's most productive tight end ever has 29 catches for 292 yards and three TDs in seven games. He is on pace for 667 yards, which would be his fewest since 1998, his second NFL season. I wouldn't bench Gonzalez, but I would be concerned.

Player to watch

-- David Gettis, WR, Panthers: The rookie had eight catches for 125 yards and two TDs last week, and Carolina plays at St. Louis on Sunday. I wouldn't start Gettis, but he's worth monitoring with Matt Moore back as the starting QB.

Free-agent picks

Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson is somehow owned in only 14.1 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, and he should be considered an every-week starter while Ryan Fitzpatrick is piling up numbers. Johnson has a touchdown in four straight games, capped by an eight-catch, 158-yard, one-TD performance Sunday at Baltimore.

Fitzpatrick has thrown for 594 yards and seven TDs in Buffalo's last two games. If you're desperate for a QB (Romo and Brett Favre owners?), he's worth a look, depending on the matchup.

Quick slants

-- Nice to have you back, Darren McFadden, but next time you plan on scoring four touchdowns, can you do us all a favor and make it look like you're going to be a big part of the game plan during the week?

-- That's seven TDs in five weeks for Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt, after he had five catches for 41 yards and no scores in his first two contests. I'd say he has a fighting chance of having a productive season. Thanks. I'll be here all week.

-- You can't bench him, but Ray Rice has only two TDs overall, and he has 24 catches for 139 yards on the year. The Ravens running back caught 78 passes for 702 yards last season.

Stats of the week

5: That's McNabb's number, and it's the reason Santana Moss seems to be rejuvenated. The Redskins receiver has 42 receptions for 548 yards and two TDs in seven games. He's on pace for 96 catches for 1,253 yards.

Moss has had only one 1,200-yard season -- a 1,483-yard career year in 2005. That is the only year in which he has had more than 79 catches (he had 84).

You know this position is loaded at the top when Antonio Gates, who has 49 touchdowns the last five seasons, is ranked third.

Gates was bothered by hip, foot and ankle injuries last season, and he posted his worst numbers since he was a rookie in 2003. Since sensational back-to-back seasons in 2004 and '05, in which he averaged 85 catches, 1,033 yards and 12 TDs, Gates' receptions have fallen to 69 per season, and he hasn't reached 1,000 yards or double-digit touchdowns.

Still, he's a clear-cut No. 3 at tight end behind Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez, who are interchangeable at Nos. 1 and 2. I'd give Witten the edge in point-per-reception leagues, but it's a slight one. Witten was more prolific than some No. 1 fantasy wideouts in 2007 (96 catches for 1,145 yards and seven TDs), and he should be more of a red-zone target this season with Terrell Owens shuffling off to Buffalo.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, will catch passes from Matt Ryan instead of Tyler Thigpen. The former Chief has had 96 or more receptions in three of the last five years, but struggled in the touchdown department from 2005-07 (12 combined scores) before recording 10 TDs last season.

Once one of the three are chosen in your draft, you can be certain the other two soon will follow. Regardless, I wouldn't choose Witten or Gonzalez until late in the fourth round of a 12-team league, and Gates is a fifth-rounder at best.

Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley and Owen Daniels -- Nos. 4-6 in the rankings below -- averaged 77 receptions for 853 yards between them. After they're gone, though, there's quite a dropoff.

On to the numbers:

Rank, player, team GP-Rec-Yds-Avg-TD
1. Jason Witten, Dal 16-81-952-11.8-4
2. Tony Gonzalez, Atl 16-96-1,058-11.0-10
3. Antonio Gates, SD 16-60-704-11.7-8
4. Dallas Clark, Ind 15-77-848-11.0-6
5. Chris Cooley, Was 16-83-849-10.2-1
6. Owen Daniels, Hou 16-70-862-12.3-2
7. Greg Olsen, Chi 16-54-574-10.6-5
8. John Carlson, Sea 16-55-627-11.4-5
9. Kellen Winslow Jr., TB 10-43-428-10.0-3
10. Zach Miller, Oak 16-56-778-13.9-1
11. Dustin Keller, NYJ 6-48-535-11.1-3
12. Visanthe Shiancoe, Min 6-42-596-14.2-7
13. Anthony Fasano, Mia 16-34-454-13.4-7
14. Kevin Boss, NYG 15-33-384-11.6-6
15. Jeremy Shockey, NO 12-50-483-9.7-0
16. Tony Sheffler, Den 13-40-645-16.1-3
17. Bo Scaife, Ten 16-58-561-9.7-2
18. Brent Celek, Phi 16-27-318-11.8-1
19. Vernon Davis, SF 16-31-358-11.5-2
20. Heath Miller, Pit 14-48-514-10.7-3
21. Donald Lee, GB 16-39-303-7.8-5
22. Marcedes Lewis, Jac 16-41-489-11.9-2
23. Benjamin Watson, NE 14-22-209-9.5-2
24. Brandon Pettigrew, Det ROOKIE

QUICK SLANTS
Clark scored 11 touchdowns in 2007. ... Cooley, who scored just once in 2008, had a combined 27 TDs from 2004-07. ... Don't overrate Winslow, who has 11 touchdowns in 44 career games. ... Daniels also doesn't find the end zone very often (10 in 46 games). ... Carlson was impressive as a rookie last season. ... Don't draft Shockey, who has never played a full season, as your starter. ... Scheffler falls in the rankings because of rumors that he doesn't fit Denver's new offensive system. ... A possible sleeper: New England's Watson, who had a combined 85 receptions for 1,032 yards and nine TDs in 25 games in 2006 and '07. ... How the mighty have fallen: Baltimore's Todd Heap doesn't crack the top 24.

Next: Running backs