Peyton Manning supplanting Tim Tebow as the Broncos' starting quarterback is the type of story that is made for Twitter.

The jokes. The arguments. The nastiness.

It's all there.

Manning over Tebow is also very interesting from a fantasy perspective, as the QB who, prior to missing all of last season with the Colts, had never thrown for fewer than 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns in a season is taking over for a QB who was frequently ripped by scouts and analysts, yet was a sneaky-good play in fantasy because of his rushing ability.

Depending on where Tebow lands in a trade, both could be fantasy options in 2012, but it's Manning who will be one of the most intriguing storylines of the season.

From 2006 to 2010, Eli's older, less-clutch brother averaged 4,328 yards and 31 touchdown passes per season.

Coming off four neck surgeries, how much faith will you have that Manning will be able to come anything close to those figures this season?

Until we see how Manning performs in the preseason and read the reports from Denver's training camp, we obviously will have no idea.

Just for fun, let's guess that Manning will be about 75 to 80 percent as good as the old Manning -- the one who had Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierce Garcon and Austin Collie as options. In Denver, he'll have Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and maybe Clark, should the tight end sign with the Broncos, as many expect.

Is 80 percent of the old Peyton better than the likes of Eli Manning, Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan? For fantasy purposes, maybe.

That would put Manning in the Nos. 8 to 12 range at QB -- a low-end starter in a 10- or 12-team league.

There are three tiers at the top of the fantasy QB ranks. The first has Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. The second has Tony Romo, Philip Rivers (assuming San Diego gives him enough weapons to make up for the loss of Vincent Jackson) and possibly the Manning brothers. The third has Vick, Roethlisberger and Ryan.

Manning, even at 80 percent, makes a much more defined impact on Denver's top two receivers -- Thomas and Decker.

With Peyton at QB, both should be fantasy starters in 2012.

Decker was the Bronco most hurt by Tebow's rise to the starting role. The second-year receiver had 45 receptions and eight TDs on the season, but he caught seven passes for 85 yards and zero TDs in the Broncos' last five regular-season games.

Thomas, meanwhile, was fantastic during the same stretch in which Decker disappeared. Thomas had 25 receptions for 448 yards and three TDs in the last five regular-season games, and had 10 catches for 297 yards and a touchdown -- that memorable 80-yard overtime score against the Steelers in the playoffs, a game in which Tebow almost single-handedly blew up Twitter -- in Denver's two postseason games.

If we're assuming Manning will be a productive fantasy QB, we'd have to believe Thomas will be a No. 2 fantasy receiver and Decker a decent No. 3 -- especially in point-per-reception formats in which he could fill the role of the pre-injury Collie of 2010 or 2004 Brandon Stokley.

In case you weren't excited about Jackie Battle, we now give you Earnest Graham in the In-Season Rush to Acquire a Starting Running Back Sweepstakes.

Thursday, a report circulated by Pro Football Talk that credited WQYK-AM 1010 in Tampa stated Buccaneers running back LeGarrette Blount will miss "several weeks" with a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his knee.

If accurate, that leaves Graham as the best of the Bucs' remaining running backs, along with an intriguing choice in point-per-reception formats.

Blount has been somewhat disappointing in his second season. He has rushed for 328 yards and three touchdowns in five games. Since he isn't a threat to catch passes (four for 58 yards thus far), the fact he has rushed for 71 yards or fewer in three of five contests is even more damaging.

Graham, meanwhile, has 23 receptions and 41 touches in five games. The 31-year-old had a breakout 2007 (898 yards rushing, 10 TDs, 49 receptions for 324 yards), but he has compiled 812 yards and five TDs on the ground in 40 games since.

He's a good receiver, and Sunday's matchup against the Saints is a decent one. New Orleans ranks 15th against the run, which is deceiving because the Saints' opponents usually take to the air, since they are often trailing. New Orleans is allowing 5.2 yards per carry and has given up four rushing TDs.

The Bucs' opponents in Week 7, the Bears, rank 28th against the run and have allowed 5.7 yards per carry.

Consider Graham a flex play in PPR formats, and a fringe No. 2 running back during weeks such as this, when six teams are on a bye.

A few more notes as we get ready for the weekend:

Start 'em

-- Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: In five games, the rookie has thrown for 1,610 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions. He has rushed for 160 yards and five scores. Can he continue this pace? Probably not. But I wouldn't sit him against Atlanta, which has the No. 28 pass defense (294.2 yards per game).

-- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions: He had only five receptions for 64 yards and zero TDs in his first two games, but he's been a top-10 tight end since. In the last three weeks, Pettigrew has 21 catches for 215 yards and a TD. Sunday, Detroit will play host to San Francisco, which ranks No. 23 vs. the pass, but does have one more interception than TD tosses allowed (eight to seven).

PPR flex play of the week

Saints running back Darren Sproles has had at least five catches in each game this season, and he's received an average of 14 touches the last two contests. In that span, Sproles has 18 carries for 126 yards (7.0 average) and 10 receptions for 96 yards.

If Sproles continues to get in the neighborhood of 15 touches, he should produce more than 100 total yards. Combine that with his five catches per game, and any time he reaches the end zone would make a productive PPR play an excellent one.

An added bonus: Sunday's opponents, the Bucs, rank 23rd vs. the run and 20th against the pass.

Sit 'em

-- Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: I wouldn't be surprised if Clark is being dropped in some leagues, since Curtis Painter has targeted the tight end a combined nine times in two games. Clark has six receptions for 65 yards and zero TDs in Indy's last three games. On the season, he has 14 catches for 136 yards and a score. And to think I not too long ago thought Clark was the No. 2 tight end in fantasy.

-- Josh Freeman, QB, and Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers: We believed Freeman was a fringe top-10 QB heading into the season, and he's been anything but. Freeman -- who threw for 3,451 yards, 25 TDs and six picks, and rushed for 364 yards in 2010, his second NFL season -- has one TD and four interceptions in his last three games. Overall, he has three TDs and six picks.

His struggles have coincided with the decline of Williams, who had 65 receptions for 964 yards and 11 TDs as a rookie in 2010. This year, he has 19 catches for 183 yards and one TD.

Sunday, the Bucs will face a Saints defense that has given up 10 TDs and has only three picks, and with Blount out, Freeman might be throwing quite a bit. Regardless, both players are difficult to keep in your lineup unless bye-week blues have left you desperate.

Give him another week

Jets tight end Dustin Keller, after catching 17 passes for 249 yards and two TDs in his first three games, has three catches for 19 yards in his last two contests. If you're growing impatient, you're not alone, especially since you might not have drafted Keller as a starter and might have two decent tight ends on your roster.

Monday night, the Jets will play host to Miami, which has the league's second-worst pass defense. The Dolphins are allowing 307 passing yards per game and have given up nine TD tosses, compared to two picks, in four contests.

Play Keller this week, and if he lets you down, keep him on your bench until he proves us wrong again.

Drop 'em

If you need the roster space, C.J. Spiller, LaDainian Tomlinson and Pierre Thomas are worthy candidates of joining the waiver wire.

For more updates and analysis, follow me on Twitter.

A few quick notes before the rankings:

-- We updated our running back rankings with the news Wednesday night that Arian Foster's hamstring injury might be more serious than we originally thought. The first round -- after Adrian Peterson -- is as dicey as ever.

-- We'll break down three of the biggest issues owners will face early in the draft -- Foster's injury, Chris Johnson's holdout and Peyton Manning trying to recover from neck surgery -- in a column this weekend in the print editions of The News-Herald and at www.news-herald.com.

-- For the quarterback rankings, click here. For the running backs, go here.

On to the wideouts and tight ends:

WIDE RECEIVERS
Rank, player, team GP-Rec-Yds-TD
1. Andre Johnson, Hou 13-86-1,216-8
2. Roddy White, Atl 16-115-1,389-10
3. Calvin Johnson, Det 15-77-1,120-12
4. Larry Fitzgerald, Ari 16-90-1,137-6
5. Greg Jennings, GB 16-76-1,265-12
6. Hakeem Nicks, NYG 13-79-1,052-11
7. Reggie Wayne, Ind 16-111-1,355-6
8. Mike Wallace, Pit 16-60-1,257-10
9. Miles Austin, Dal 16-69-1,041-7
10. Vincent Jackson, SD 5-14-248-3
11. DeSean Jackson, Phi 14-47-1,056-6
12. Dez Bryant, Dal 12-45-561-6
13. Dwayne Bowe, KC 16-72-1,162-15
14. Brandon Lloyd, Den 16-77-1,448-11
15. Mike Williams, TB 16-65-964-11
16. Brandon Marshall, Mia 14-86-1,014-3
17. Wes Welker, NE 15-86-848-7
18. Marques Colston, NO 15-84-1,023-7
19. Steve Johnson, Buf 16-82-1,073-10
20. Santonio Holmes, NYJ 12-52-746-6
21. Anquan Boldin, Bal 16-64-837-7
22. Jeremy Maclin, Phi 16-70-964-10
23. Percy Harvin, Min 14-71-868-5
24. Mario Manningham, NYG 16-60-944-9
25. Santana Moss, Was 16-93-1,115-6
26. Chad Ochocinco, NE 14-67-831-4
27. Austin Collie, Ind 9-58-649-8
28. Sidney Rice, Sea 6-17-280-2
29. Pierre Garcon, Ind 14-67-784-6
30. Steve Smith, Car 14-46-554-2
31. Kenny Britt, Ten 12-42-775-9
32. Mike Thomas, Jac 16-66-820-4
33. Julio Jones, Atl ROOKIE
34. Malcom Floyd, SD 11-37-717-6
35. Lance Moore, NO 16-66-763-8
36. Braylon Edwards, SF 16-53-904-7
37. Johnny Knox, Chi 16-51-960-5
38. Hines Ward, Pit 16-59-755-5
39. A.J. Green, Cin ROOKIE
40. Danny Amendola, StL 16-85-689-3
41. Mike Sims-Walker, StL 14-43-562-7
42. Davone Bess, Mia 16-79-820-5
43. Michael Crabtree, SF 16-55-741-6
44. Plaxico Burress, NYJ DID NOT PLAY
45. Jordy Nelson, GB 16-45-582-2
46. Jacoby Ford, Oak 16-25-470-2
47. Jerome Simpson, Cin 5-20-277-3
48. Mike Williams, Sea 14-65-751-2
49. Nate Burleson, Det 14-55-625-6
50. Steve Breaston, KC 13-47-718-1
51. James Jones, GB 16-50-679-5
52. Deion Branch, NE 15-61-818-6
53. Roy Williams, Chi 15-37-530-5
54. Lee Evans, Bal 13-37-578-4
55. Robert Meachem, NO 16-44-638-5
56. Donald Driver, GB 15-51-565-4
57. Emmanuel Sanders, Pit 13-28-376-2
58. Derrick Mason, NYJ 16-61-802-7
59. Danario Alexander, StL 8-20-306-1
60. Antonio Brown, Pit 9-16-167-0

Note: Statistics are from the 2010 season.

Quick slants: Andre Johnson had a "down" 2010 after averaging 108 receptions for 1,572 yards and eight TDs in 2008 and '09. ... White has had at least 83 receptions for 1,153 yards or more in each of the last four years. ... Jennings had a big season after totaling only 13 TDs in '08 and '09. ... Calvin Johnson had big 2008 and '10 seasons, but had a combined nine TDs in '07 and '09. Hopefully, it's not an odd-year thing. ... Prior to last year, Fitzgerald had three consecutive seasons with at least 96 receptions and 10 TDs. ... The Colts' Wayne seems underrated, if that's possible, on some websites. He has had 100 catches or more in three straight seasons, and he has seven consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. ... In 2009, the Chargers' Jackson had 68 receptions for 1,167 yards and nine TDs. ... The Dolphins' Marshall could provide huge value as a No. 2 fantasy receiver if he returns to his form from 2007-09, in which he had 101 catches or more and 1,120 yards or more each year. He had 23 combined TDs in that span.

TIGHT ENDS
Rank, player, team GP-Rec-Yds-TD
1. Antonio Gates, SD 10-50-782-10
2. Dallas Clark, Ind 6-37-347-3
3. Jason Witten, Dal 16-94-1,002-9
4. Vernon Davis, SF 16-56-914-7
5. Jermichael Finley, GB 5-21-301-1
6. Owen Daniels, Hou 11-38-471-2
7. Kellen Winslow, TB 16-66-730-5
8. Jimmy Graham, NO 15-31-356-5
9. Tony Gonzalez, Atl 16-70-656-6
10. Brandon Pettigrew, Det 16-71-722-4
11. Marcedes Lewis, Jac 16-58-700-10
12. Zach Miller, Sea 15-60-685-5
13. Rob Gronkowski, NE 16-42-546-10
14. Dustin Keller, NYJ 16-55-687-5
15. Chris Cooley, Was 16-77-849-3
16. Greg Olsen, Car 16-41-404-5
17. Tony Moeaki, KC 15-47-556-3
18. Brent Celek, Phi 16-42-511-4
19. Aaron Hernandez, NE 14-45-563-6
20. Todd Heap, Ari 13-40-599-5

Quick slants: Gates played all 64 games between 2006 and '09, and had ridiculous numbers in 2010, considering he played 10 games. ... Clark, the No. 2 tight end, is also coming off an injury-plagued year. He had a monster 2009 (100 receptions for 1,106 yards and 10 TDs). ... You shouldn't have to worry about injury if you take Witten, who has played in all 64 games the last four years and posted at least 81 receptions and 952 yards each season. The drawback: He has averaged 5.5 TDs per season in that span. ... The Packers' Finley is an injury risk (18 games played since 2009), but he is very good when healthy (76 receptions for 977 yards and six TDs in that span). ... The 49ers' Davis had 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 TDs in 2009. ... After Davis, there is a pretty big drop. The Texans' Daniels -- the consensus No. 6 tight end in fantasy -- has all of 17 TDs in five years. ... The Falcons' Gonzalez could provide late-round value at age 35. He's ranked as a backup tight end on some sites, but he's much better than the likes of Greg Olsen. Though Gonzo had his lowest yardage total since 1998, his second NFL season, he still had 70 catches and six TDs. ... Don't overrate the Jaguars' Lewis, who, prior to his breakout 2010, had seven TDs in four years and had never had more than 41 receptions or 518 yards.

NEXT: Kickers and defenses/special teams

Sidney Rice's hip injury is a significant one for fantasy owners, since it damages the fantasy value of the indecisive one (Brett Favre), while increasing the statures of Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe. (As an aside: Was anyone else surprised ESPN didn't have a reporter speculate that Favre was wavering on his commitment to the Vikes after the Rice news broke?)

Rice said he aims to be back by midseason following surgery this week, but he also revealed the ailment could have been career-threatening.

What to do? I'd draft him as a No. 4 receiver, hope he plays by Week 9 or 10 and resembles anything close to the player who had 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns last season.

On to the final rankings of the preseason.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Rank, player, team GP-Rec-Yds-Avg-TD
1. Andre Johnson, Hou 16-101-1,569-15.5-9
2. Randy Moss, NE 16-83-1,264-15.2-13
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Ari 16-97-1,092-11.3-13
4. Reggie Wayne, Ind 16-100-1,264-12.6-10
5. Miles Austin, Dal 16-81-1,320-16.3-11
6. Roddy White, Atl 16-85-1,153-13.6-11
7. Brandon Marshall, Mia 15-101-1,120-11.1-10
8. DeSean Jackson, Phi 15-62-1,156-18.6-9
9. Steve Smith, Car 15-65-982-15.1-7
10. Calvin Johnson, Det 14-67-984-14.7-5
11. Steve Smith, NYG 16-107-1,220-11.4-7
12. Greg Jennings, GB 16-68-1,113-16.4-4
13. Marques Colston, NO 16-70-1,074-15.3-9
14. Anquan Boldin, Bal 15-84-1,024-12.2-4
15. Hines Ward, Pit 16-95-1,167-12.3-6
16. Chad Ochocinco, Cin 16-72-1,047-14.5-9
17. Michael Crabtree, SF 11-48-625-13.0-2
18. Mike Sims-Walker, Jac 15-63-869-13.8-7
19. Wes Welker, NE 14-123-1,348-11.0-4
20. Donald Driver, GB 16-70-1,061-15.2-6
21. Mike Wallace, Pit 16-39-756-19.4-6
22. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea 16-79-911-11.5-3
23. Dwayne Bowe, KC 11-47-589-12.5-4
24. Jeremy Maclin, Phi 15-56-773-13.8-4
25. Vincent Jackson, SD 15-68-1,167-17.2-9
26. Steve Breaston, Ari 15-55-712-12.9-3
27. Hakeem Nicks, NYG 14-47-790-16.8-6
28. Santana Moss, Was 16-70-902-12.9-3
29. Santonio Holmes, NYJ 16-79-1,248-15.8-5
30. Pierre Garcon, Ind 14-47-765-16.3-4
31. Percy Harvin, Min 15-60-790-13.2-6
32. Braylon Edwards, NYJ 16-45-680-15.1-4
33. Lee Evans, Buf 16-44-612-13.9-7
34. Bernard Berrian, Min 16-55-618-11.2-4
35. Robert Meachem, NO 16-45-722-16.0-9
36. Terrell Owens, Cin 16-55-829-15.1-5
37. Derrick Mason, Bal 16-73-1,028-14.1-7
38. Johnny Knox, Chi 15-45-527-11.7-5
39. Malcom Floyd, SD 16-45-776-17.2-1
40. Eddie Royal, Den 14-37-345-9.3-0
41. Mohamed Massaquoi, Cle 16-34-624-18.4-3
42. x-Anthony Gonzalez, Ind 16-57-664-11.6-4
43. Dez Bryant, Dal ROOKIE
44. Sidney Rice, Min 16-83-1,312-15.8-8
45. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ 14-57-821-14.4-3
46. Kevin Walter, Hou 14-53-611-11.5-2
47. Nate Burleson, Det 13-63-812-12.9-3
48. Austin Collie, Ind 16-60-676-11.3-7
49. Chaz Schillens, Oak 8-29-365-12.6-2
50. Josh Morgan, SF 16-52-527-10.1-3
51. Chris Chambers, KC 16-45-730-16.2-5
52. Donnie Avery, StL 16-47-589-12.5-5
53. Early Doucet, Ari 9-17-214-12.6-1
54. Devin Aromashodu, Chi 10-24-298-12.4-4
55. Kenny Britt, Ten 16-42-701-16.7-3
56. Devery Henderson, NO 16-51-804-15.8-2
57. Mario Manningham, NYG 14-57-822-14.4-5
58. Devin Hester, Chi 13-57-757-13.3-3
59. Roy Williams, Dal 15-38-596-15.7-7
60. Legedu Naanee, SD 15-24-242-10.1-2
x-2008 statistics (injured in 2009).

QUICK SLANTS

In the last two seasons, the Texans' Johnson has averaged 108 catches for 1,572 yards and 8.5 touchdowns. ... Fitzgerald has a sprained MCL but plans to be ready for the season opener. ... In the last three seasons, Marshall has averaged 102 receptions for 1,237 yards and 7.7 TDs. ... The Falcons' White has posted at least 83 catches for 1,153 yards or more in each of the last three seasons. ... Last year, the Panthers' Smith recorded his lowest yardage total since 2004. ... The Packers' Jennings had a combined 21 TDs in 2007 and '08, but was held to four scores last season. ... The Packers' Driver has six consecutive seasons with at least 70 receptions for 1,012 yards. ... The Chargers' Jackson will be suspended for the first three games and is in a contract dispute. He's a risky pick. ... Welker, who seems to have made a remarkable recovery from a severe knee injury, has recorded 111 receptions or more and 1,165 yards or better in each of the last three seasons. ... The Jets' Holmes will be suspended for the first four games. ... A possible sleeper: The Bears' Aromashodu, who had 22 catches for 282 yards and four TDs in the final four games last season.

TIGHT ENDS

Rank, player, team GP-Rec-Yds-Avg-TD
1. Dallas Clark, Ind 16-100-1,106-11.1-10
2. Antonio Gates, SD 16-79-1,157-14.6-8
3. Brent Celek, Phi 16-76-971-12.8-8
4. Vernon Davis, SF 16-78-965-12.4-13
5. Jason Witten, Dal 16-94-1,030-11.0-2
6. Tony Gonzalez, Atl 16-83-867-10.4-6
7. Jermichael Finley, GB 13-55-676-12.3-5
8. Chris Cooley, Was 7-29-332-11.4-2
9. Kellen Winslow Jr., TB 16-77-884-11.5-5
10. Visanthe Shiancoe, Min 16-56-566-10.1-11
11. Owen Daniels, Hou 8-40-519-13.0-5
12. Heath Miller, Pit 16-76-789-10.4-6
13. Zach Miller, Oak 15-66-805-12.2-3
14. John Carlson, Sea 16-51-574-11.3-7
15. Greg Olsen, Chi 16-60-612-10.2-8
16. Jeremy Shockey, NO 13-48-569-11.9-3
17. Kevin Boss, NYG 15-42-567-13.5-5
18. Dustin Keller, NYJ 16-45-522-11.6-2
19. Marcedes Lewis, Jac 15-32-518-16.2-2
20. Todd Heap, Bal 16-53-593-11.2-6
21. Ben Watson, Cle 16-29-404-13.9-5
22. Bo Scaife, Ten 14-45-440-9.8-1
23. Anthony Fasano, Mia 14-31-339-10.9-2
24. Brandon Pettigrew, Det 11-30-346-11.5-2
Note: Statistics are from the 2009 season.

QUICK SLANTS

Gates has scored at least eight touchdowns in six consecutive seasons and has had 71 catches or more in five of the six years. ... The 34-year-old Gonzalez had his fewest yards since 2002, but still has seven straight seasons with at least 71 catches for 867 yards. ... Witten has only 13 TDs in the last three years, but he's averaged 90 catches for 1,042 yards in that span. ... The Texans' Daniels is coming off ACL surgery, but should play in Week 1. ... Winslow has 16 TDs in 60 career games. ... Shiancoe has 18 TDs in the last two years and will be counted on heavily with Sidney Rice out. ... The Steelers' Miller could be a late-round steal after posting career highs in receptions and yards last season. ... In the last three years, Shockey has six TDs in 39 games.

PAST PREVIEWS

-- Quarterbacks

-- Defenses and special teams

-- Kickers

-- Complete player rankings

Monday, Colts coach Jim Caldwell said his 13-0 team, which has nothing to play for but perfection and fantasy owners the next three weeks, was going to "approach the 14th game exactly like we did one through 13."

A day later, the Colts' injury report was released after practice. Twenty-nine players were listed as not participating, including Peyton Manning ("glute injury"), Joseph Addai (knee), Reggie Wayne (foot) and Pierre Garcon (knee). In other words, Indy's definition of healthy will change possession by possession from Weeks 15 to 17.

If you are in your league's semifinals and have Manning, Addai, Wayne or Dallas Clark, you should root for two things (in addition to your players) tonight: 1. A close game against the Jaguars; 2. A Colts win.

If the game is close, I'd expect Manning, Addai, Wayne and Clark to play most of it. If it's not, I'd be surprised if we saw them wearing a helmet in the second half.

Should the Jags stay competitive and the Colts win, consider this quote from Wayne when he was asked about going 16-0 this week: "It'll be tough to tell Peyton Manning he'll be in two series, I'll be in two series. We'd be flipping out. It's right there. The closer you get to that, the harder it's going to be. You do it now. I need to see what it tastes like."

If Indy is 14-0 heading into next week's home game against the Jets, you would think the Colts' studs would at least play into the third quarter. If Indy loses tonight, it likely will be one- or two-series-and-out for Manning, Addai, Wayne and Clark, and you will be starting backups in your championship game.

Let's take Caldwell's one-at-a-time approach and worry about Week 15 first: If you have a very good backup QB, running back or wide receiver with a favorable matchup (say, Brett Favre at Carolina or Jamaal Charles vs. the Browns), I would play him instead of one of your Colts. Otherwise, start Manning, Addai, Wayne and Clark and hope for a 31-28 win.

On to tonight's start-and-sit lists:

START

Colts: QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, WR Reggie Wayne, WR Pierre Garcon, WR Austin Collie, TE Dallas Clark

Jaguars: RB Maurice Jones-Drew, WR Mike Sims Walker

Quick slants: Manning needs 95 yards for his 10th 4,000-yard season in 12 years. ... Addai has accounted for 13 touchdowns (nine rushing, three receiving, one passing) in as many games and has been a top-five back in PPR formats. With his top backup, 2009 first-round pick Donald Brown, out with a chest injury for the third straight week and Mike Hart and Chad Simpson next in line at running back, he seems to be the most likely to be benched in the coming weeks. ... Wayne, who has been bothered by a foot injury, has only 11 catches for 110 yards and one TD in his last three games after totaling 76 receptions, 968 yards and eight TDs in his first 10. ... Clark has five TDs in his last four games. ... Garcon and Collie might benefit the most should Wayne rest in Weeks 16 and/or 17. Garcon has 19 receptions for 348 yards in his last four games, and Collie has scored a TD in two consecutive contests. ... Jones-Drew has been limited to 276 yards and two scores on 82 carries (3.4 average) in his last four games. He had 169 attempts, 860 yards (5.1) and 12 TDs on the ground in the Jags' first nine. ... Sims-Walker, who has battled a calf injury, has two catches for 18 yards the last two weeks. He should bounce back tonight.

SIT

Colts: K Matt Stover, defense and special teams

Jaguars: QB David Garrard, WR Torry Holt, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, defense and special teams

Quick slants: Stover has scored five points or fewer in four of his last five games. ... The Colts' defense ranks 17th overall in yards (337.4 per game) but is tied for second in points allowed (16.7). Indy ranks 17th against the run (110.4 yards per game) and 20th vs. the pass (227). ... The Jags' defense ranks 20th overall (346.5 yards per game), 20th in scoring (22.1 points), 14th vs. the run (107 yards per game) and 26th vs. the pass (239.5 yards per game). ... Garrard is on pace to throw for 3,676 yards, but he has only 10 TD passes and hasn't had a TD toss in seven of 13 games. ... Holt, who is 85 receptions shy of 1,000 for his career, has yet to score a touchdown in his first season with Jacksonville. ... Lewis hasn't had a TD since Week 4. ... Scobee has scored four points or fewer in three of his last four.

You know this position is loaded at the top when Antonio Gates, who has 49 touchdowns the last five seasons, is ranked third.

Gates was bothered by hip, foot and ankle injuries last season, and he posted his worst numbers since he was a rookie in 2003. Since sensational back-to-back seasons in 2004 and '05, in which he averaged 85 catches, 1,033 yards and 12 TDs, Gates' receptions have fallen to 69 per season, and he hasn't reached 1,000 yards or double-digit touchdowns.

Still, he's a clear-cut No. 3 at tight end behind Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez, who are interchangeable at Nos. 1 and 2. I'd give Witten the edge in point-per-reception leagues, but it's a slight one. Witten was more prolific than some No. 1 fantasy wideouts in 2007 (96 catches for 1,145 yards and seven TDs), and he should be more of a red-zone target this season with Terrell Owens shuffling off to Buffalo.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, will catch passes from Matt Ryan instead of Tyler Thigpen. The former Chief has had 96 or more receptions in three of the last five years, but struggled in the touchdown department from 2005-07 (12 combined scores) before recording 10 TDs last season.

Once one of the three are chosen in your draft, you can be certain the other two soon will follow. Regardless, I wouldn't choose Witten or Gonzalez until late in the fourth round of a 12-team league, and Gates is a fifth-rounder at best.

Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley and Owen Daniels -- Nos. 4-6 in the rankings below -- averaged 77 receptions for 853 yards between them. After they're gone, though, there's quite a dropoff.

On to the numbers:

Rank, player, team GP-Rec-Yds-Avg-TD
1. Jason Witten, Dal 16-81-952-11.8-4
2. Tony Gonzalez, Atl 16-96-1,058-11.0-10
3. Antonio Gates, SD 16-60-704-11.7-8
4. Dallas Clark, Ind 15-77-848-11.0-6
5. Chris Cooley, Was 16-83-849-10.2-1
6. Owen Daniels, Hou 16-70-862-12.3-2
7. Greg Olsen, Chi 16-54-574-10.6-5
8. John Carlson, Sea 16-55-627-11.4-5
9. Kellen Winslow Jr., TB 10-43-428-10.0-3
10. Zach Miller, Oak 16-56-778-13.9-1
11. Dustin Keller, NYJ 6-48-535-11.1-3
12. Visanthe Shiancoe, Min 6-42-596-14.2-7
13. Anthony Fasano, Mia 16-34-454-13.4-7
14. Kevin Boss, NYG 15-33-384-11.6-6
15. Jeremy Shockey, NO 12-50-483-9.7-0
16. Tony Sheffler, Den 13-40-645-16.1-3
17. Bo Scaife, Ten 16-58-561-9.7-2
18. Brent Celek, Phi 16-27-318-11.8-1
19. Vernon Davis, SF 16-31-358-11.5-2
20. Heath Miller, Pit 14-48-514-10.7-3
21. Donald Lee, GB 16-39-303-7.8-5
22. Marcedes Lewis, Jac 16-41-489-11.9-2
23. Benjamin Watson, NE 14-22-209-9.5-2
24. Brandon Pettigrew, Det ROOKIE

QUICK SLANTS
Clark scored 11 touchdowns in 2007. ... Cooley, who scored just once in 2008, had a combined 27 TDs from 2004-07. ... Don't overrate Winslow, who has 11 touchdowns in 44 career games. ... Daniels also doesn't find the end zone very often (10 in 46 games). ... Carlson was impressive as a rookie last season. ... Don't draft Shockey, who has never played a full season, as your starter. ... Scheffler falls in the rankings because of rumors that he doesn't fit Denver's new offensive system. ... A possible sleeper: New England's Watson, who had a combined 85 receptions for 1,032 yards and nine TDs in 25 games in 2006 and '07. ... How the mighty have fallen: Baltimore's Todd Heap doesn't crack the top 24.

Next: Running backs