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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Fantasy football: Peyton Manning's impact

Peyton Manning supplanting Tim Tebow as the Broncos' starting quarterback is the type of story that is made for Twitter.

The jokes. The arguments. The nastiness.

It's all there.

Manning over Tebow is also very interesting from a fantasy perspective, as the QB who, prior to missing all of last season with the Colts, had never thrown for fewer than 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns in a season is taking over for a QB who was frequently ripped by scouts and analysts, yet was a sneaky-good play in fantasy because of his rushing ability.

Depending on where Tebow lands in a trade, both could be fantasy options in 2012, but it's Manning who will be one of the most intriguing storylines of the season.

From 2006 to 2010, Eli's older, less-clutch brother averaged 4,328 yards and 31 touchdown passes per season.

Coming off four neck surgeries, how much faith will you have that Manning will be able to come anything close to those figures this season?

Until we see how Manning performs in the preseason and read the reports from Denver's training camp, we obviously will have no idea.

Just for fun, let's guess that Manning will be about 75 to 80 percent as good as the old Manning -- the one who had Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierce Garcon and Austin Collie as options. In Denver, he'll have Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and maybe Clark, should the tight end sign with the Broncos, as many expect.

Is 80 percent of the old Peyton better than the likes of Eli Manning, Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan? For fantasy purposes, maybe.

That would put Manning in the Nos. 8 to 12 range at QB -- a low-end starter in a 10- or 12-team league.

There are three tiers at the top of the fantasy QB ranks. The first has Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. The second has Tony Romo, Philip Rivers (assuming San Diego gives him enough weapons to make up for the loss of Vincent Jackson) and possibly the Manning brothers. The third has Vick, Roethlisberger and Ryan.

Manning, even at 80 percent, makes a much more defined impact on Denver's top two receivers -- Thomas and Decker.

With Peyton at QB, both should be fantasy starters in 2012.

Decker was the Bronco most hurt by Tebow's rise to the starting role. The second-year receiver had 45 receptions and eight TDs on the season, but he caught seven passes for 85 yards and zero TDs in the Broncos' last five regular-season games.

Thomas, meanwhile, was fantastic during the same stretch in which Decker disappeared. Thomas had 25 receptions for 448 yards and three TDs in the last five regular-season games, and had 10 catches for 297 yards and a touchdown -- that memorable 80-yard overtime score against the Steelers in the playoffs, a game in which Tebow almost single-handedly blew up Twitter -- in Denver's two postseason games.

If we're assuming Manning will be a productive fantasy QB, we'd have to believe Thomas will be a No. 2 fantasy receiver and Decker a decent No. 3 -- especially in point-per-reception formats in which he could fill the role of the pre-injury Collie of 2010 or 2004 Brandon Stokley.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Brandon Lloyd trade analysis

The Brandon Lloyd trade is rare in two ways.

1. It's an in-season NFL deal involving a decent name. (For some reason, marquee NFL trades are more rare than positive news from the NBA labor talks.)

2. The trade could be a good thing for all fantasy players involved.

And we all know No. 2 is most important.

Lloyd, who was dealt by the Broncos to the Rams on Monday, had 77 receptions for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. The totals obliterated his previous career bests of 48 catches, 733 yards and six TDs.

This season, he has 19 catches for 283 yards and zero TDs in four games, and the rise of Tim Tebow to starting quarterback wasn't going to help Lloyd's fantasy value. In the lone game in which Tebow played a significant role this season, Lloyd had one reception for 20 yards after catching 18 passes in his first three games of 2011.

Now he's in St. Louis, where he should immediately become the No. 1 receiver.

The only problem: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford has a high ankle sprain. If he is forced to miss time, St. Louis will turn to 34-year-old A.J. Feeley, whose five passing attempts this season are his first since 2007.

If you own Lloyd, the hope should be Bradford misses no more than a game, and the pair get quickly acclimated from that point forward.

The Rams have only two other wideouts of note, and neither should be considered No. 3 receivers in fantasy.

Second-year receiver Danario Alexander has 14 catches for 287 yards and a TD in four games, and third-year wideout Brandon Gibson has 17 receptions for 214 yards and a score in five contests. Alexander is the better of the two, but is best suited to be a fantasy reserve.

In Denver, meanwhile, Eric Decker could be Tebow's No. 1 target. The second-year receiver has 22 receptions for 266 yards and four TDs in five games.

Another name to remember is second-year receiver Demaryius Thomas, who is expected to make his season debut Sunday at Miami.

Thomas was Denver's first-round pick, No. 22 overall, in 2010, but started this season on the sideline because of a torn Achilles.

With Eddie Royal out of the lineup since Week 2 because of a groin injury, coupled with the fact he's been a disappointment since his 91-catch rookie season of 2008, Thomas should be a starter in the next two or three weeks.

The wild card in all this, of course, is Tebow, whose value we discussed recently.

Will he prove to be a decent NFL quarterback? Will he run first and pass second at the first sign of trouble?

That remains to be seen.

For Lloyd, a chance of scenery is a good thing.

For Decker and Thomas, the 2010 Pro Bowl selection's absence might be even better.

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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Fantasy football: Is Eric Decker the real deal?

Last week, Eric Decker became the first Broncos wide receiver to score twice and tally 100 yards in his first career start.

He was a popular choice this week on the waiver wire (he led our weekly analysis on Tuesday), but he still hasn't seemed to catch on as a no-doubt-about-it starting option in fantasy.

Yahoo! has Decker ranked 37th at wide receiver this week, and ESPN has him 34th. Part of the reason is Sunday's matchup at Tennessee, which is ranked third against the pass and has one more interception than touchdown passes allowed (two to one).

Regardless, the Broncos can rack up passing yards under Kyle Orton, who has thrown for 7,954 yards in 31 games since 2009, an average of 257 per contest.

With Eddie Royal out 2 to 4 weeks because of a groin injury and No. 1 receiver Brandon Lloyd also nursing a groin ailment, Decker might be Denver's best option in the passing game.

Lloyd didn't play last week, but he is expected to play Sunday. Decker had five receptions for 113 yards and a pair of scores in Denver's win over Cincinnati, and he had three receptions for 53 yards in Week 1.

He didn't make much of an impact as a rookie in 2010 (six receptions), but he was still recovering from a Lisfranc foot injury he suffered against Ohio State in October 2009. The injury caused him to miss the rest of his senior season and resulted in his draft stock slipping from a fringe first-rounder to the third round (No. 87 overall) in 2010.

Now, he says he's 100 percent.

Maybe I'm more optimistic than most, but I see Decker as a No. 3 receiver in fantasy, especially in point-per-catch formats.

He's big (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) and he's fast (a 90-yard punt return for a TD in Week 1).

Plus, he has our old favorite, Orton, throwing him the rock.

What could go wrong?

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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Fantasy football: Week 3 waiver-wire picks

Last week, we gave you Devery Henderson, Dustin Keller, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Aaron Hernandez and Ben Tate in this space.

If you only listened to us on Cadillac Williams, shame on you. OK, shame on us for thinking one game might mean Williams could somehow turn back the clock.

Anyway, we're back with more waiver-wire selections this week. Note that we are looking for players who are available in the majority of the leagues on ESPN.com.

Also note that we discussed the fantasy values of Dexter McCluster, Thomas Jones and other possible free-agent running backs on Monday morning.

1. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos (owned in 6.7 percent of the ESPN.com leagues): With Brandon Lloyd out because of a groin injury and Eddie Royal sidelined during the game because of a similar ailment, Decker had his best game as a pro Sunday -- five receptions for 113 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bengals. He has eight catches for 166 yards in two games, and Royal is expected to miss 2 to 4 weeks. Lloyd should return this week, but that doesn't diminish Decker's standing as a quality No. 3 receiver option in 12-team leagues.

2. David Nelson, WR, Bills (1.4 percent): Nelson had 31 receptions for 353 yards and three TDs as an undrafted rookie last season. All three of his scores were in his last four games. This season, he has 14 receptions for 149 yards and a TD in two games, including a huge Week 2 against the Raiders (10 catches for 83 yards and a score). He's a decent third receiver in 12-team point-per-reception leagues.

3. Fred Davis, TE, Redskins (16.9 percent): Chris Cooley is beat up, as evidenced by his two catches for 21 yards in two games (he was shut out last week). Enter Davis, who has 11 receptions for 191 yards and a TD in two contests. In 2009, he seemed to be Washington's future No. 1 option at tight end (48 receptions, six TDs), but he was disappointing last year. This season, he has surpassed Cooley and should be considered a starting tight end in 12-team leagues.

Five other possible free agents of note:

-- Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins (16.6 percent): He's thrown for at least 291 yards and two TDs each week. Do we think it will continue? No. Can you do better at QB? Absolutely. But Grossman does merit consideration in deep leagues, and he's a no-doubt-about-it starter in leagues in which you play two QBs.

-- Nate Washington, WR, Titans (3.3 percent): He has had six catches or more in each of his first two games, capped by a seven-reception, 99-yard performance against the Ravens. Washington had six TDs in both 2009 and '10, but he never had more than 47 receptions or 687 yards. With Matt Hasselbeck under center, he can at least be a part-time starter in fantasy.

-- Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (5.6 percent): Gaffney averaged 59.5 catches per season in 2009 and '10 with the Broncos, but he scored two TDs each year. With Big Rex in command, Gaffney had five receptions for 62 yards last week against the Cardinals. He isn't a fantasy starter unless you're desperate, but he is roster-worthy.

-- Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams (31.3 percent): See Gaffney, Jabar. Sims-Walker had six catches for 92 yards Monday night, but he had one reception for 5 yards in St. Louis' opener. Sam Bradford spreads the receptions between Sims-Walker, Brandon Gibson (seven catches for 102 yards) and Danario Alexander (three receptions for 122 yards and a TD on Monday), so consider Sims-Walker a fantasy reserve.

-- Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders (27.5 percent): We're not fans of Campbell, but he has accounted for five TDs (three passing, two rushing) in two weeks. Campbell's season stats are obviously skewed by his huge game at Buffalo on Sunday. Also keep in mind Campbell threw for only 13 TDs last season. He's no better than a mid-level fantasy backup.

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