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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Brandon Lloyd trade analysis

The Brandon Lloyd trade is rare in two ways.

1. It's an in-season NFL deal involving a decent name. (For some reason, marquee NFL trades are more rare than positive news from the NBA labor talks.)

2. The trade could be a good thing for all fantasy players involved.

And we all know No. 2 is most important.

Lloyd, who was dealt by the Broncos to the Rams on Monday, had 77 receptions for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. The totals obliterated his previous career bests of 48 catches, 733 yards and six TDs.

This season, he has 19 catches for 283 yards and zero TDs in four games, and the rise of Tim Tebow to starting quarterback wasn't going to help Lloyd's fantasy value. In the lone game in which Tebow played a significant role this season, Lloyd had one reception for 20 yards after catching 18 passes in his first three games of 2011.

Now he's in St. Louis, where he should immediately become the No. 1 receiver.

The only problem: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford has a high ankle sprain. If he is forced to miss time, St. Louis will turn to 34-year-old A.J. Feeley, whose five passing attempts this season are his first since 2007.

If you own Lloyd, the hope should be Bradford misses no more than a game, and the pair get quickly acclimated from that point forward.

The Rams have only two other wideouts of note, and neither should be considered No. 3 receivers in fantasy.

Second-year receiver Danario Alexander has 14 catches for 287 yards and a TD in four games, and third-year wideout Brandon Gibson has 17 receptions for 214 yards and a score in five contests. Alexander is the better of the two, but is best suited to be a fantasy reserve.

In Denver, meanwhile, Eric Decker could be Tebow's No. 1 target. The second-year receiver has 22 receptions for 266 yards and four TDs in five games.

Another name to remember is second-year receiver Demaryius Thomas, who is expected to make his season debut Sunday at Miami.

Thomas was Denver's first-round pick, No. 22 overall, in 2010, but started this season on the sideline because of a torn Achilles.

With Eddie Royal out of the lineup since Week 2 because of a groin injury, coupled with the fact he's been a disappointment since his 91-catch rookie season of 2008, Thomas should be a starter in the next two or three weeks.

The wild card in all this, of course, is Tebow, whose value we discussed recently.

Will he prove to be a decent NFL quarterback? Will he run first and pass second at the first sign of trouble?

That remains to be seen.

For Lloyd, a chance of scenery is a good thing.

For Decker and Thomas, the 2010 Pro Bowl selection's absence might be even better.

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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Fantasy football: Is Eric Decker the real deal?

Last week, Eric Decker became the first Broncos wide receiver to score twice and tally 100 yards in his first career start.

He was a popular choice this week on the waiver wire (he led our weekly analysis on Tuesday), but he still hasn't seemed to catch on as a no-doubt-about-it starting option in fantasy.

Yahoo! has Decker ranked 37th at wide receiver this week, and ESPN has him 34th. Part of the reason is Sunday's matchup at Tennessee, which is ranked third against the pass and has one more interception than touchdown passes allowed (two to one).

Regardless, the Broncos can rack up passing yards under Kyle Orton, who has thrown for 7,954 yards in 31 games since 2009, an average of 257 per contest.

With Eddie Royal out 2 to 4 weeks because of a groin injury and No. 1 receiver Brandon Lloyd also nursing a groin ailment, Decker might be Denver's best option in the passing game.

Lloyd didn't play last week, but he is expected to play Sunday. Decker had five receptions for 113 yards and a pair of scores in Denver's win over Cincinnati, and he had three receptions for 53 yards in Week 1.

He didn't make much of an impact as a rookie in 2010 (six receptions), but he was still recovering from a Lisfranc foot injury he suffered against Ohio State in October 2009. The injury caused him to miss the rest of his senior season and resulted in his draft stock slipping from a fringe first-rounder to the third round (No. 87 overall) in 2010.

Now, he says he's 100 percent.

Maybe I'm more optimistic than most, but I see Decker as a No. 3 receiver in fantasy, especially in point-per-catch formats.

He's big (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) and he's fast (a 90-yard punt return for a TD in Week 1).

Plus, he has our old favorite, Orton, throwing him the rock.

What could go wrong?

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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Fantasy football: Week 4 waiver-wire picks

If you're looking into acquiring Matt Hasselbeck on the waiver wire, one or two things have happened.

1. You're desperate.

2. You drafted Brett Favre as your starting quarterback. If this is the case, No. 1 also applies.

If you have Favre and didn't draft a quality backup, Hasselbeck is a decent one-week option with Favre on a bye.

The Seahawks play Sunday at the Rams, who rank 24th against the pass, allowing 730 yards in three games.

All of which brings us to our free-agent selections for Week 4. The picks are available in more than 50 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com -- this week, they are available in at least 66 percent.

QB: Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks (25.3 percent)

Mark Sanchez is available in 53 percent of the ESPN formats, but I'd rather have Hasselbeck this week. He hasn't been very good since 2007, but he's averaging 208 passing yards per game this season and could throw for a couple of scores vs. St. Louis.

RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots (28.7 percent)

Someone has to get the carries in New England -- and fortunately for Green-Ellis, Fred Taylor left last week's game with a toe injury and missed practice Wednesday, Kevin Faulk is on injured reserve and Laurence Maroney is in Denver. Green-Ellis had 16 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown last week. Sunday, he'll face a Dolphins defense that is allowing 117.3 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per attempt and has given up two rushing TDs this season.

WR: Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
(33.6 percent)

He's been Denver's best receiver, and I have reluctantly jumped aboard the bandwagon after a three-week stretch in which he's had two games with at least 117 yards. Lloyd has 14 receptions for 339 yards and a score. Don't expect a huge game Sunday at the Titans, who are the league's fifth-best pass defense and have given up only one TD toss (compared to three interceptions).

WR: Lance Moore, Saints (12.2 percent)

He caught six passes for 149 yards and two scores last week, and as I wrote late Sunday night, he should get a lot more chances with Reggie Bush out. Moore, who had three catches in New Orleans' first two games, was productive in 2008 (79 receptions, 928 yards, 10 TDs), and his Week 3 was better than the three-game totals for both Devery Henderson (seven catches, 89 yards) and Robert Meachem (four catches, 38 yards).

Of the three receivers on this list, Moore has the best Week 3 matchup. The Panthers have allowed six touchdown passes (the fifth-most) in three games.

WR: Jabar Gaffney, Broncos (19.0 percent)

That crafty Kyle Orton is spreading the ball around in Denver -- Gaffney has 26 targets, Eddie Royal 24 and Lloyd 22. Gaffney has 17 receptions for 189 yards, but because of the matchup at Tennessee, is the worst play of the three wideouts in this space.

TE: Aaron Hernandez, Patriots (23.5 percent)

The rookie has 12 receptions for 166 yards the last two weeks, and he is averaging 16.2 yards per catch on the season. He has 13 receptions on 15 targets (the erratic Randy Moss has nine on 21 targets), and he could be a top-10 tight end in PPR formats. Monday, the Pats play at Miami, which ranks ninth against the pass.

TE: John Carlson, Seahawks (27.1 percent)

He's surprisingly undervalued after averaging 53 receptions and six touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons. Carlson has 10 catches the last two weeks, and he had five for 61 yards and a TD in Week 3. His 24 targets are eight more than any other Seattle receiver.

Carlson also has a much more favorable Week 4 matchup than Hernandez. The aforementioned Rams are allowing 243 passing yards per game.

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