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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Fantasy football: Brandon Lloyd trade analysis

The Brandon Lloyd trade is rare in two ways.

1. It's an in-season NFL deal involving a decent name. (For some reason, marquee NFL trades are more rare than positive news from the NBA labor talks.)

2. The trade could be a good thing for all fantasy players involved.

And we all know No. 2 is most important.

Lloyd, who was dealt by the Broncos to the Rams on Monday, had 77 receptions for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. The totals obliterated his previous career bests of 48 catches, 733 yards and six TDs.

This season, he has 19 catches for 283 yards and zero TDs in four games, and the rise of Tim Tebow to starting quarterback wasn't going to help Lloyd's fantasy value. In the lone game in which Tebow played a significant role this season, Lloyd had one reception for 20 yards after catching 18 passes in his first three games of 2011.

Now he's in St. Louis, where he should immediately become the No. 1 receiver.

The only problem: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford has a high ankle sprain. If he is forced to miss time, St. Louis will turn to 34-year-old A.J. Feeley, whose five passing attempts this season are his first since 2007.

If you own Lloyd, the hope should be Bradford misses no more than a game, and the pair get quickly acclimated from that point forward.

The Rams have only two other wideouts of note, and neither should be considered No. 3 receivers in fantasy.

Second-year receiver Danario Alexander has 14 catches for 287 yards and a TD in four games, and third-year wideout Brandon Gibson has 17 receptions for 214 yards and a score in five contests. Alexander is the better of the two, but is best suited to be a fantasy reserve.

In Denver, meanwhile, Eric Decker could be Tebow's No. 1 target. The second-year receiver has 22 receptions for 266 yards and four TDs in five games.

Another name to remember is second-year receiver Demaryius Thomas, who is expected to make his season debut Sunday at Miami.

Thomas was Denver's first-round pick, No. 22 overall, in 2010, but started this season on the sideline because of a torn Achilles.

With Eddie Royal out of the lineup since Week 2 because of a groin injury, coupled with the fact he's been a disappointment since his 91-catch rookie season of 2008, Thomas should be a starter in the next two or three weeks.

The wild card in all this, of course, is Tebow, whose value we discussed recently.

Will he prove to be a decent NFL quarterback? Will he run first and pass second at the first sign of trouble?

That remains to be seen.

For Lloyd, a chance of scenery is a good thing.

For Decker and Thomas, the 2010 Pro Bowl selection's absence might be even better.

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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Fantasy football: Is Eric Decker the real deal?

Last week, Eric Decker became the first Broncos wide receiver to score twice and tally 100 yards in his first career start.

He was a popular choice this week on the waiver wire (he led our weekly analysis on Tuesday), but he still hasn't seemed to catch on as a no-doubt-about-it starting option in fantasy.

Yahoo! has Decker ranked 37th at wide receiver this week, and ESPN has him 34th. Part of the reason is Sunday's matchup at Tennessee, which is ranked third against the pass and has one more interception than touchdown passes allowed (two to one).

Regardless, the Broncos can rack up passing yards under Kyle Orton, who has thrown for 7,954 yards in 31 games since 2009, an average of 257 per contest.

With Eddie Royal out 2 to 4 weeks because of a groin injury and No. 1 receiver Brandon Lloyd also nursing a groin ailment, Decker might be Denver's best option in the passing game.

Lloyd didn't play last week, but he is expected to play Sunday. Decker had five receptions for 113 yards and a pair of scores in Denver's win over Cincinnati, and he had three receptions for 53 yards in Week 1.

He didn't make much of an impact as a rookie in 2010 (six receptions), but he was still recovering from a Lisfranc foot injury he suffered against Ohio State in October 2009. The injury caused him to miss the rest of his senior season and resulted in his draft stock slipping from a fringe first-rounder to the third round (No. 87 overall) in 2010.

Now, he says he's 100 percent.

Maybe I'm more optimistic than most, but I see Decker as a No. 3 receiver in fantasy, especially in point-per-catch formats.

He's big (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) and he's fast (a 90-yard punt return for a TD in Week 1).

Plus, he has our old favorite, Orton, throwing him the rock.

What could go wrong?

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Monday, October 18, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 6

Before we watch Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew go head-to-head tonight, and see whether Good Mike Sims-Walker (Weeks 2 and 4) or awful MSW (Weeks 1, 3 and 5) shows up under the watchful eyes of Jon "I Love Everyone" Gruden, let's get to some quick takes from the sixth Sunday of the NFL season.

-- Again, take your time, Clinton Portis. Those of us lucky enough to acquire Ryan Torain a few weeks ago are reaping the benefits. The Redskins running back had 20 carries for 100 yards and two touchdowns Sunday night, and he has 210 yards and three TDs on the ground in his last three games. He's a No. 2 back in any format.

-- Welcome back, Dwayne Bowe (six receptions, 108 yards and two TDs), but I still don't trust you. The Chiefs receiver had nine receptions and one TD in his first four contests.

Start 'em


-- Colts receiver Pierre Garcon, who has 10 receptions for 160 yards and one TD the last two weeks. Viewed as a top-20 receiver entering the season, Garcon was upstaged by Austin Collie in Weeks 1 and 2 (the former Mount Union standout had a combined four catches for 54 yards in the two games), then sat the next two contests because of a hamstring injury. He seems healthy now, and Peyton Manning continues to prove he can keep everyone happy -- Collie, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark each had at least six catches Sunday night.

-- Patriots receiver Deion Branch, who had nine receptions for 98 yards and a TD in his first game back with Tom Brady. The Pats spread the ball around as much as the Colts, but Branch seems to be the safest wide receiver option other than PPR machine Wes Welker. The latter had seven catches in his first game post-Moss.

-- Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb, as long as Andy Reid keeps starting him, of course. In two games with Michael Vick out with a rib injury, Kolb has completed 73.3 percent of his passes (44 of 60) for 579 yards, with four touchdowns and one interception. Now healthy (Kolb suffered a concussion in Week 1, which led to Vick's resurgence), he seems to be a top-10 fantasy QB when in Philly's lineup.

-- If Dolphins receiver Davone Bess is still available in your league (he's somehow owned in fewer than 19 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com), pick him up and play him every week in PPR formats. Bess has 19 receptions for 219 yards and two TDs in his last three games.

Sit 'em

-- Broncos receiver Eddie Royal, who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 and has seven catches for 68 yards and zero TDs the last two games. Royal had a promising first four weeks (25 receptions for 299 yards and two TDs), but now seems to be the No. 3 option behind Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney.

-- Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown, if you have the roster flexibility. Brown hasn't scored since Week 1, hasn't rushed for more than 80 yards in a game, and he has only 10 catches for 53 yards on the season. As a Brown owner, I also don't feel good about Ricky Williams' numbers the last two contests: 21 carries for 120 yards (5.7 average), five receptions for 44 yards and an average of 6.3 yards per touch.

Stock up

-- Seahawks receiver Mike Williams, who had 10 catches for 123 yards in his first game since Branch was traded to the Patriots. I wouldn't consider him an every-week starter (he had 11 receptions in his first four games), but Williams is the best fantasy receiving option on the Seahawks.

-- Lions receiver Nate Burleson, who has a touchdown in consecutive weeks and has 10 catches in that span. He is a No. 3 fantasy wideout.

Stock down

-- Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, who has zero touchdowns and one interception in his last two games. If you have two quality quarterbacks -- say Kolb, Kyle Orton or Ben Roethlisberger -- I'd start any of the three over Cutler.

Stat of the week

43: Cowboys running back Felix Jones' touches in his last two games. Jones had 10 receptions in Week 6 and clearly is Dallas' top back, and Wade Phillips finally realized it -- or he was told that was the case by Lord Jerry Jones, Ruler Of The Annual Underachievers.

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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Fantasy football: Quick snaps from Week 2

In fewer than seven quarters, Michael Vick has thrown for 459 yards and three touchdowns, rushed for 140 yards and averaged 7.8 yards per carry.

It would seem he's a fantasy starter for the first time in four years, but Kevin Kolb is ready to return from a concussion, so Vick will reassume his role as Wildcat threat and backup quarterback for the Eagles.

If you have Kolb and wisely acquired Vick on the waiver wire last week, the choice is simple: Play Kolb on Sunday against Jacksonville, which ranks 29th against the pass and is allowing 300 yards passing and two TDs through the air per game.

If Kolb is your backup, I'd leave him as such, unless you have a lower-echelon starter with a poor matchup -- say Matt Ryan at the Saints in Week 3. In that case, I'd take the chance that Kolb is as good as Andy Reid believes.

In any case, don't drop Vick unless you really need the roster spot. He could be a factor in the coming months.

-- Jason Snelling, who carried 24 times for 129 yards and two scores, and caught five passes for 57 yards and a TD on Sunday, likely vaulted to the top of the waiver-wire wish list in Week 3. Michael Turner left with a groin injury and backup Jerious Norwood exited because of a knee ailment, leaving Snelling as Atlanta's featured back.

Falcons coach Mike Smith said Monday that Turner was cleared to re-enter the Week 2 game, but durability is certainly an issue after the first-round fantasy pick missed five games last year and failed to rush for 900 yards.

If Turner is out this week, Snelling (who ran for 613 yards and four scores, and caught 30 passes for 259 yards and one TD last season) is a must-play against the Saints.

-- That sound you heard was every fantasy owner who has Tim Hightower urging Beanie Wells to take his time coming back from a knee injury.

-- Broncos receiver Eddie Royal, who has 13 catches for 163 yards and a TD in two games, should have regained our trust. Start him.

-- I wouldn't make the same move with Broncos rookie Demaryius Thomas, who had eight catches for 97 yards and a TD last week, but was shut out in Week 1.

-- Welcome back, Mike Sims-Walker.

-- Kurt Warner, are you sure about this whole retirement thing?

-- I believe in Rams receiver Mark Clayton.

-- I don't believe in any Patriots running back. Same goes for the Cowboys' backfield.

-- Stock up: Chiefs rookie tight end Tony Moeaki (although I would only start him in very deep leagues), Pats rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez (see Moeaki), Jets tight end Dustin Keller (I'd put him a level above the two rookies) and Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis (see Keller).

-- Stock down: Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (one TD and five interceptions), Eagles tight end Brent Celek (five catches for 59 yards; is he waiting for Kolb?), Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez (four catches for 54 yards) and Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald (post-Warner).

-- Start 'em: Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton (602 yards, three TDs, one pick), Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw (he's clearly the featured back, surpassing Brandon Jacobs) and Raiders running back Darren McFadden (303 total yards).

-- Sit 'em: Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe (five catches for 58 yards), Steelers receiver Mike Wallace (until Ben Roethlisberger returns), Colts receiver Pierre Garcon (two catches for 54 yards). You, too, Brett Favre.

-- Drop 'em: Ravens receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh (one catch for 27 yards in his first two games with Baltimore), Browns receiver Mohamed Massaquoi (three catches for 55 yards) and Giants running back Brandon Jacobs.

-- Michael Crabtree, our patience is running as low as that of Vernon Davis and Mike Singletary.

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Thursday, October 22, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 7

Michael Crabtree built quite a following of detractors during his seemingly senseless contract holdout. In the next few weeks, the 49ers receiver has a chance to get some of the critics back on his side.

"Some" being us fantasy football owners who can be swayed by the simple things -- catches, yards and touchdowns.

Crabtree, who didn't sign until Oct. 6, is expected to start Sunday at Houston. Big things were expected of the rookie after the draft; now, we'll be happy if he's better than Josh Morgan (and he can't get worse than Isaac Bruce).

Crabtree is owned in only 30 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, but he's worth a look in deeper leagues and should be scooped up in all keeper formats.

I wouldn't play him Sunday, although the matchup against the Texans' 19th-ranked pass defense is favorable. But I wouldn't be surprised if he was a decent starter in the coming weeks, when the 49ers face the bottom four teams in the league in pass defense -- Week 9 at Tennessee (No. 32 vs. the pass), Week 12 vs. Jacksonville (No. 30), Week 14 at Arizona (No. 31) and Week 16 vs. Detroit (No. 29). The Titans (19), Lions (17) and Jaguars (12) have allowed a combined 48 touchdown passes in 18 games, which bodes well for Crabtree.

And if you think the 49ers are rushing him by starting him 19 days after he signed, here are three numbers for you: 26, 369, 1. Those are the combined catches, yards and touchdowns for San Francisco starting receivers Morgan and Bruce in five games, which together are one fewer catch, 58 more yards and one fewer TD than Redskins tight end Chris Cooley, who has Jason Campbell as his QB.

Start 'em

-- We should know better than to get our hopes up, but LaDainian Tomlinson showed glimpses of the old L.T. on Monday night. Granted, he rushed for only 70 yards on 18 carries, had three catches for 30 yards and didn't score a touchdown, but he actually looked healthy for the first time since the opener. If you hesitated to play L.T. last week, I don't blame you, but he should return to your lineup the next two weeks. In that span, the Chargers play at the Chiefs (No. 27 vs. the run) and at home against the Raiders (No. 29). Combined, the teams are allowing 275.6 yards per game and have surrendered 13 rushing TDs.

-- Last Sunday night was a microcosm of Matt Forte's season. Jay Cutler and the Bears were moving the ball through the air, and Forte did nothing on the ground. And just when you got your hopes up, he fumbled twice near the goal line, failing to salvage an awful night by at least scoring a touchdown (wait, can you tell I drafted Forte third overall in the News-Herald PPR league?). As bad as he's been (294 yards rushing, 3.4 yards per carry, one TD), I would still play Forte the next two weeks, when Chicago plays at an Antwan Odom-less Cincinnati and at home against the Browns and their extremely generous run defense (No. 30, 165.3 yards per game, nine rushing TDs by the opposition).

Sit him


-- If you played Broncos receiver Eddie Royal on Monday night, we can only hope you also had Denver's defense and special teams, since that's probably the only way you received credit for Royal's kickoff and punt returns for touchdowns. Denver is off this week, then plays at Baltimore and at home vs. Pittsburgh. At this point, Royal, who had 91 catches as a rookie last season, can't be trusted. He's had one productive game (10 catches for 90 yards in Week 5) and five contests in which he's caught a combined eight passes for 58 yards, and he hasn't scored a TD other than on special teams all season.

Drop 'em

-- If you need the roster space with six teams on a bye in Week 7, running back Willis McGahee, whose Ravens have the week off, should be a prime candidate to go the way of any employee who fails to pay a fine imposed by Eric Mangini. In his last three games, McGahee has 13 carries for 12 yards and 15 touches total. Ray Rice has developed into one of the top two or three backs in PPR leagues, and McGahee will be lucky to get double-digit carries in any game the rest of the way.

-- Vikings rookie receiver Percy Harvin, who scored a touchdown in each of his first two NFL games, hasn't scored since and has had more than 51 receiving only once in Minnesota's last four contests. The electric rookie has also been bothered by a sore shoulder and has been the Vikings' fourth receiving option as Sidney Rice (18 catches for 363 yards and two TDs in his last four games) and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe (11 receptions and four TDs in his last three contests) have flourished. If you have limited room on your roster, call Harvin into your office and send him on his way (you have to be better at it than the Bengals' turk on "Hard Knocks").

Stat of the week


One: As in 100-yard games for Laurence Maroney since the start of the 2008 season. The Patriots running back finally got the lion's share of the workload last week with Fred Taylor out and Sammy Morris banged up, rushing for 123 yards and a TD on 16 carries and catching three passes for 10 yards.

If there was ever a week to play Maroney (well, other than last Sunday), this would seem to be it. The Patriots face the winless Buccaneers in London, and Morris is likely to sit because of a knee injury (Taylor has already been ruled out). Tampa Bay ranks 31st against the run, giving up 171.7 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt.

Can Maroney -- gasp -- record two 100-yard games in a row? Since he's a running back for the Patriots and Bill Belichick seems to take joy in giving four backs five to eight carries each, we can never be certain.

Still, I like Maroney's odds.

The way this season has gone, expect Tom Brady to throw for 500 yards and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to be New England's leading rusher with 24 yards on five carries.

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Thursday, October 15, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 6

Have the first five weeks been crazy enough for you?

Saturday, we'll do an expanded buy and sell, with five trends I believe in, and five I don't. That column will be posted on the Sports section of the News-Herald's Web site.

Let's address two more disappointments here.

The Packers' Greg Jennings, a consensus top-five fantasy receiver entering the season, and the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams, a top-five running back on many boards, have many owners wondering if their slow starts will instead be a season-long start-or-sit dilemma.

Jennings, who had 80 receptions for 1,292 yards and nine touchdowns last season, was productive in Week 1 (six receptions for 106 yards and a TD). In Week 2, he was shut out; in Week 3, he had two catches, and in Week 4, he had three -- good (bad?) for a three-game total of five receptions for 134 yards and no TDs.

In that same span, teammate Donald Driver has 14 catches for 249 yards and two TDs. For the season, Driver has seven more catches than Jennings (18 to 11), 48 more yards (288-240) and one more score (2-1).

Before you decide to sit Jennings, consider that a primary reason for his struggles likely is the Packers' offensive line, which might as well have Browns right tackle John St. Clair manning all five positions. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 20 times, and his best deep threat (Jennings) has been boom (three receptions of 50-plus yards) or bust (every other snap).

The good news for fantasy owners: The Packers' next two games are Sunday at home against the Lions (No. 27 vs. the pass at 244.6 yards per game and a league-worst 15 TD passes allowed) and next week at the Browns.

If Jennings isn't productive the next two weeks, then it's time to worry.

Same goes for Williams, who has rushed for only 220 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, and two TDs in four games. The same back who ran for 1,515 yards and scored 20 times last season has 104 yards and zero scores in his last two games. And Williams can't even blame Jonathan Stewart, who has only 33 attempts in four games, for having a big impact on his workload.

Your ire instead you should be directed at Jake Delhomme, whose eight interceptions have sabotaged the running game faster than Justin Bobby can kill a relationship (wait, you don't watch "The Hills"?).

The Panthers' next two games are Sunday at Tampa Bay (No. 28 vs. the run at 152.6 yards per game) and next week at home vs. Buffalo (No. 29, 154.6 rushing yards per game allowed).

Start Williams and hope Delhomme doesn't get in the way.

On to the no-huddle ...

-- Having a ball: Congratulations to Greg Kuhlman of Perry, who was one of six Week 1 winners of a Larry Fitzgerald autographed football in an ESPN.com contest. The Web site and the Cardinals wide receiver are giving away an autographed ball for every pass the Pro Bowler catches this year, and Kuhlman was one of the lucky recipients for the opening weekend.

Click here for more information on the contest.

-- Grand Royal?:
Wide receiver Eddie Royal, who had eight receptions for 58 yards in the Broncos' first four games, had 10 catches for 90 yards against the Patriots last week.

Before you put him back in your starting lineup, here's a stat: Denver QB Kyle Orton threw 50 times on Sunday, and five players caught four or more passes. If you have four solid receivers and you play in yardage- and TD-heavy scoring formats, you might want to make Royal prove Week 5 was legit, since Sunday's opponent, San Diego, ranks sixth against the pass. In PPR leagues, however, Royal -- who has yet to score a touchdown in 2009 and had only five among his 91 catches as a rookie last season -- should be a safe start.

-- Running in place: Guess we should have seen this coming. Seattle's Julius Jones, one of the more pleasant surprises of the first three weeks, has rushed for 59 yards and zero TDs on 23 carries the last two games. Sunday, the Seahawks face the Cardinals, the league's top-ranked run defense at 71.0 yards per game (Arizona is allowing just 2.9 yards per carry; I checked the stats twice to make sure I had those numbers right). You don't need me to tell you that doesn't bode well for Thomas Jones' kid brother.

-- By now, you're sitting Larry Johnson. At what point do you drop him?

-- Here's hoping you have dropped Lee Evans and/or Laveranues Coles, who have combined for 22 catches and one TD in nine games.

-- We'll be back Saturday with the aforementioned column, which will also include our weekly audiocast. This week, Mark Podolski and I redraft for Round 1. We'll also have the "big blog" for Week 6, with start-and-sit advice, an expanded playlist and the usual injury updates. That will be posted in this space and on the N-H's Sports site.

Good luck and remember to thank the owner ahead of you in your draft who selected Domenik Hixon over Steve Smith (the one who doesn't have Delhomme as his quarterback).

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Friday, April 3, 2009

Fantasy focus: Bear market for Cutler

We interrupt the non-stop baseball portion of this blog to address the non-stop soap opera of the NFL offseason.

Jay Cutler finally has a new home, and it's one almost none of saw coming.

The Broncos traded the 25-year-old Pro Bowl quarterback to the Bears on Thursday, getting two first-round picks, a third-round pick and Kyle Orton for Cutler and a fifth-round selection in this month's NFL draft.

Instead of Cutler in Cleveland, Tampa, New York or any other rumored destination, the strong-armed, seemingly thin-skinned QB is in the Windy City, forced to contemplate life with Devin Hester and Rashied Davis and his top wide receivers.

Rookie Broncos coach Josh McDaniels' reputation has taken a hit during this juvenile, back-and-forth, text-message-filled drama, but maybe not as big of a blow as the one Cutler's fantasy value just endured.

In January, I ranked Cutler third in a list of the top keeper-league candidates at quarterback, trailing only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Four months from now, fantasy owners will be considering whether to spend an early draft pick on a QB whose top receivers -- at the moment -- are a running back (Matt Forte), tight end (Greg Olsen) and Pro Bowl kick returner (Devin Hester, who led all Bears with 665 receiving yards last season).

Heading into next season, Cutler has to drop behind Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, a seemingly healthy Tom Brady and a re-signed Kurt Warner, and don't be surprised if many owners prefer Matt Ryan, Matt Cassel (the guy who inadvertently started this whole mess because of McDaniels' preference of coaching him in New England), Donovan McNabb and even Ben Roethlisberger over Cutler.

Instead of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, Cutler is faced with a depth chart of Hester, Davis (35 catches for 445 yards and two TDs last season) and Vanderbilt product Earl Bennett (zero catches as a rookie in 2008) as his top three wide receivers. He does have a solid tight end in Olsen (54 receptions for 574 yards and five TDs last season) and a stud running back (Forte) who is a very good receiver (a team-high 63 grabs in 2008).

Conservatively, Cutler's new home plummets him from No. 3 at QB to No. 9 entering next season. The list starts with Manning, Brees, Rivers, Warner and Rodgers, and Brady, Romo and Ryan should also surpass Cutler. If you prefer McNabb or Cassel, the case could be made that Cutler has dropped from an upper-echelon fantasy QB to a low-end No. 1, and possibly a No. 2 in 10-team leagues.

The biggest beneficiaries of this deal figure to be Hester (who could score double-digit touchdowns next season with the strong-armed Cutler throwing to him), Forte (who might find more running room) and, yes, Orton.

The latter has been a punching bag for many during his career in Chicago, but he was pretty effective for much of last season, when he threw for 2,979 yards and 18 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions and three TDs on the ground. The bearded one now goes to a franchise with a young, gifted offensive mind calling the shots, and two young, productive receivers in Marshall and Royal.

Could Orton be a better fantasy option than Cutler next season? Will that be one of the crazier, ironic subplots of 2009?

I wouldn't rule it out. But I would rule out taking Cutler in the first few rounds next August.

He got his wish. And it's one he might be second-guessing sometime this fall.

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