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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Fantasy football: Playoff pools, top WRs and TEs

In the latest edition of the Year of the Quarterback (see Part I in this series), the elite tight ends were historically prolific, too.

The top two in the rankings that follow -- the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski and the Saints' Jimmy Graham -- combined for 189 receptions for 2,637 yards and 28 touchdowns in the regular season. The combined totals for Gronkowski and Graham (JimRob Grahamkowski?) were very comparable to the top two receivers below -- Wes Welker and Jordy Nelson, who combined for 190 catches, 2,832 yards and 24 TDs.

As is the case with the quarterbacks, the tight ends have a few no-doubt-about-it choices, followed by a huge gap. After the Packers' Jermichael Finley and the 49ers' Vernon Davis, there is a future Hall of Famer (the Falcons' Tony Gonzalez) who will be lucky if he plays more than one playoff game, followed by the Steelers' No. 3 or 4 receiving option (Heath Miller).

On to the rankings (note that we ranked only one receiver from each team, since most pools only allow you to select one player from each NFL playoff team):

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Wes Welker, Patriots
2. Jordy Nelson, Packers
3. Marques Colston, Saints
4. Mike Wallace, Steelers
5. Victor Cruz, Giants
6. Roddy White, Falcons
7. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
8. A.J. Green, Bengals
9. Calvin Johnson, Lions
10. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
11. Andre Johnson, Texans
12. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

TIGHT ENDS
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints
3. Jermichael Finley, Packers
4. Vernon Davis, 49ers
5. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
6. Heath Miller, Steelers
7. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
8. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
9. Owen Daniels, Texans
10. Ed Dickson, Ravens
11. Jake Ballard, Giants

More on the tight ends

If we could somehow have the option of choosing a team's tight ends, the Patiots would be a must-have with Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The latter, if included in the above rankings, would be No. 4, ahead of the 49ers' Davis, after catching 79 passes for 910 yards and seven TDs in the regular season. ... After Gonzalez, I would avoid the other tight ends if at all possible. The Texans' Daniels and the Giants' Ballard have both been limited by a knee injury, and the run-happy Broncos don't even have a tight end worth mentioning.

Notes on the wide receivers

Welker is an easy top choice in point-per-reception formats after racking up 122 catches for 1,569 yards and nine TDs. That is, if you want to select him instead of two of his teammates (Tom Brady or Gronkowski). ... I selected Nelson over stud teammate Greg Jennings because Nelson had 277 yards and five TDs in his last two games, and Jennings missed the Pack's last three contests with a knee injury. He is expected to play next week in the divisional round. If we were ranking more than one receiver on a team, I would put Jennings fourth, behind Colston. ... The Steelers' Wallace also has a very productive teammate at the same position (Antonio Brown, who had 69 catches for 1,108 yards), but Wallace has eight TDs to Brown's two. ... The Falcons' White is a narrow choice over teammate Julio Jones, who has reached the end zone six times in his last four contests. ... The Giants' Cruz had 82 catches for 1,536 yards and nine TDs in the regular season. I'd take him over Hakeem Nicks (76 receptions, 1,192 yards and seven TDs). ... Boldin is expected to play following late-season knee surgery. Teammate Torrey Smith (50 catches, 841 yards and seven TDs) is a tempting choice in his place. ... The great Calvin Johnson is ranked so low because we don't expect him to play more than one game, and the once-great Andre Johnson has been a shell of himself because of a hamstring injury.

PREVIOUS: Quarterbacks and running backs

NOTE: If you're hoping for defense/special teams and kicker rankings, a few words of advice: Fill out the remainder of your lineup, then take the best two options from the remaining five playoff teams. Selecting the best quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end combination (usually a total of seven spots) is infinitely more important.

Good luck, and may you follow the wise words of Mike Holmgren: Stay the course.

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Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Fantasy football: Playoff pools, top WRs

Before we get to Part 3 of this four-part series for those of us who drag the fantasy football season out more than a network television producer, here are the links for the first two posts:

Monday, quarterbacks; Tuesday, running backs. Thursday, we'll rank the tight ends, kickers and defenses/special teams.

WIDE RECEIVERS


15. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals: He'd be ranked higher if a high ankle sprain and a sprained MCL didn't have his status for Sunday's wild-card game against Green Bay in question. The guess here is Boldin will play, but there's also a chance the Cardinals won't make it to the divisional round.

14. Malcom Floyd, Chargers: Yes, he has only 45 catches and one TD, but the fifth-year receiver had nine receptions for 140 yards in the regular-season finale, and he's the No. 2 wideout on a team that is as likely as any outside of Indianapolis and New Orleans to play in February.

13. Donald Driver, Packers: He wasn't at his best down the stretch (14 catches for 185 yards and zero TDs in the last four games), but he reached 70 receptions and 1,000 yards for the sixth straight year and still had better numbers than Greg Jennings.

12. DeSean Jackson, Eagles: If all teams were equal, the speedster who has nine TDs receiving, one rushing and two on punt returns would be in the top three, but Dallas seems to have Philly's number, and if the Eagles are eliminated after one game, Jackson better make it count. He had five catches for 76 yards and no scores in the Eagles' two losses to the Cowboys this season.

11. Robert Meachem, Saints: Like Floyd, his reception (45) and yardage totals (722) are about six games for Andre Johnson, but Meachem has 37 catches and seven TDs in his last nine games, and it doesn't hurt that he should play two games in a dome, possibly followed by the Super Bowl in Miami.

10. Percy Harvin, Vikings: The league's top offensive rookie has 60 catches and 135 rushing yards. The only danger: Would you be surprised if the Vikings lost to the Cowboys next weekend?

9. Greg Jennings, Packers: He gets the nod over Driver due to his six-game production from Weeks 11-16 (541 yards) and his big-play capability. The risk: His team is a wild-card underdog.

8. Austin Collie, Colts: He's Peyton Manning's third or fourth option, but the rookie has 60 catches and seven TDs. And did I mention he has Peyton Manning throwing to him?

7. Randy Moss, Patriots: This might seem too low, but consider these three things: 1. Moss is on a dubious streak of seven straight games with 75 or fewer receiving yards; 2. He doesn't have Wes Welker to take some of the heat off him; 3. Would you really be surprised if the Pats lost to the Ravens?

6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: His regular-season yardage total (1,092) was much lower than his average of 1,420 from the previous two years, but his 13 TDs were a career high. Again, he's not higher because of the one-and-done risk.

5. Miles Austin, Cowboys: In his last 12 games, he's been as good as anyone (76 receptions for 1,239 yards and 10 TDs). See Fitzgerald for my only concern.

4. Marques Colston, Saints: He tends to be all (20 of his 74 receptions, 385 of his 1,074 yards and four of his nine TDs were in three games) or nothing (six games with three or fewer catches, and as many contests with 46 or fewer yards). The positive: He's the top target on the best offense in the NFC, even if said offense spreads the wealth a little too much for many fantasy owners' liking.

3. Sidney Rice, Vikings: One of the year's most pleasant surprises, this Pro Bowl selection has 83 catches for 1,312 yards and eight TDs, with three of the latter coming in the last two weeks.

2. Vincent Jackson, Chargers: The negative (two TDs in his last eight games) is outweighed by his season stats (1,167 yards and nine scores) and the chance for him to play three postseason games.

1. Reggie Wayne, Colts: Think 100 receptions, 1,264 yards and 10 TDs are impressive? Imagine if he had been allowed to play more than a few quarters in the last two games.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

Chad Ochocinco, Bengals; Pierre Garcon, Colts; Julian Edelman, Patriots; Derrick Mason, Ravens; Steve Breaston, Cardinals; Devery Henderson, Saints; Jeremy Maclin, Eagles; Bernard Berrian, Vikings; Jerricho Cotchery, Jets; Roy Williams, Cowboys; Braylon Edwards, Jets

Quick slants: Ochocinco doesn't make the top 15 for one reason: Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, who shut him out Sunday night. ... Mason has impressive stats, but he also has six games with three or fewer catches. ... Henderson's value has plummeted since the emergence of Meachem. The former has 11 catches for 106 yards and zero TDs in his last four games, after catching 40 passes for 698 yards in the first 12. ... Maclin, a promising rookie, hasn't reached the end zone in his last seven contests. ... Garcon, a Mount Union product who had 45 catches for 776 yards in 14 games before resting the last two weeks, is one to watch. ... Edelman, a Kent State product, is a possible sleeper. He had 21 receptions in the three games in which Welker didn't play or exited early, including 10 catches for 103 yards last week. ... Edwards and Cotchery should be considered last resorts for pools in which you draft more than a few receivers.

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fantasy football: More NFL draft numbers

In a column for the print editions two weeks ago, I broke down the success -- or lack thereof -- of rookie quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers from a fantasy perspective.

A quick recap: Since 2004, only four quarterbacks have thrown for 2,500 yards or more and at least 10 touchdowns as rookies -- Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008, Matt Leinart in 2006 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. There have been eight rookie running backs to record 1,000 yards on the ground -- Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton last season, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in 2007, Joseph Addai in 2006, Cadillac Williams in 2005 and Kevin Jones (yes, Kevin Jones; he was such a surprise I omitted him in the previous column) in 2004. And the most surprising stat: Only two wide receivers have had 1,000-yard campaigns in their first seasons, and Larry Fitzgerald wasn't one of them. The two are Marques Colston in 2006 and the seldom-heard-from-since Michael Clayton in 2004.

Some leftover statistics from that analysis:

-- Where are the receivers? It goes without saying that quarterbacks can't be trusted as fantasy options as rookies. Of the four QBs to reach the aforementioned plateau, only Ryan threw for 3,000 yards (3,440 with the Falcons in 2008), and only Ryan and Roethlisberger had more than Flacco's 14 TD passes.

I went into this assuming there would be more 1,000-yard receivers than rushers, strictly because of the pass-happy nature of today's NFL, plus the fact that more teams split carries now than before. But even Fitzgerald (58 catches for 780 yards and eight TDs in 2004) wasn't much more than a No. 3 fantasy option as a rookie. Same goes for 2004 draft classmates Roy Williams (54-817, 8 TDs) and Lee Evans 48-843, 9).

-- What about Braylon? The butter-fingered Edwards had 32 receptions for 512 yards and three TDs for the Browns in 2005.

-- Close calls and other WR notables: The Broncos' Eddie Royal was sensational last season (91 receptions), but fell 20 yards shy of 1,000. ... Philly's DeSean Jackson had 62 receptions for 912 yards and two scores in 2008. ... Of the triple-figure club, no one came closer to 1,000 than Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe, who had 70 catches for 995 yards and five TDs in 2007. ... Super Bowl MVP and former Buckeye Santonio Holmes had 49 catches for 824 yards and two TDs for the Steelers in 2006.

-- Run, rookie, run: Last season's rookie class was easily the best of the five, with Forte, Johnson and Slaton likely high first-round draft choices this season. The 2008 class also includes the Lions' Kevin Smith, who ran for 976 yards and eight TDs and caught 39 passes for 286 yards.

-- Reggie and MJD:
The Saints' Reggie Bush ran for only 565 yards in 2006, but he scored eight total TDs and had 88 receptions for 742 yards. It remains his best season. ... The Jags' Maurice Jones-Drew, a likely top-five pick this season with Fred Taylor no longer around to eat up carries, was a fantasy stud as a rookie in 2006, but didn't run for 1,000 yards. Jones-Drew had 941 yards on the ground, caught 46 passes for 436 yards and had 15 total TDs.

-- More RB notables: Ronnie Brown had 907 yards rushing, 32 receptions for 232 yards and five total TDs for Miami in 2005 -- the same year Cadillac had his only big season (1,178 yards, six TDs). ... Steven Jackson rushed for 673 yards and four TDs as a Rams rookie in 2004, the same year Kevin Jones had 1,133 yards and six total scores with the Lions. He hasn't rushed for more than 689 yards since.

-- Don't count on the tight ends. A quick look at some bigger-name tight ends as rookies -- 2008: John Carlson, Seahawks, 55 receptions, 627 yards, five TDs; Dustin Keller, Jets, 48-535, 3; 2007: Greg Olsen, Bears, 39-391, 2; Zach Miller, Raiders, 44-444, 3; 2006: Vernon Davis, 49ers, 20-265, 3; Owen Daniels, Texans, 34-352, 5; 2005: Heath Miller, Steelers, 39-459, 6; Alex Smith, Buccaneers, 41-367, 2; 2004: Kellen Winslow Jr., Browns, two games played; Ben Troupe, Titans, 33-329, 1; Chris Cooley, Redskins, 37-314, 6.

-- Although I didn't go back to 2003 for the other positions, I was curious to see how that class of tight ends -- Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark -- fared as rookies. All three had between 340 and 389 yards (led by Gates' 389), the trio combined for only four TDs (two by Gates) and Witten's 35 receptions were the most of the bunch.

The lesson, 12 long paragraphs later: On draft day 2009, know that rookie running backs have the greatest chance of success among the four primary positions. The problem, of course, is determining the right one.

Five backs were chosen in the first round in 2008 -- Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson -- and Stewart and Johnson were the only fantasy assets. Forte was a second-round pick by the Bears, Smith was selected 64th overall in Round 3, and Slaton (maybe the best of all) went 25 choices later at 89.

Could that mean big things from LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene or Glen Coffee?

That's more than enough numbers for now. Go to The News-Herald's Web site on Saturday for a breakdown of the struggling stars in fantasy baseball. The site also currently has a fantasy baseball and football audiocast.

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