Blogs > N-H Fantasy Sports

News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Fantasy football: Start and sit for Thursday's Jets-Bills game

Darrelle Revis is a Pro Bowl cornerback -- a player who is relevant in fantasy only when he intercepts your quarterback and returns it for a touchdown or takes a pick back for a score to benefit your defense.

Revis, however, is so effective that we all must fear starting any No. 1 wide receiver who faces the Jets in a given week.

Revis -- with apologies to the Titans' Kenny Britt, the Dolphins' Davone Bess/Greg Camarillo/Ted Ginn Jr./Brian Hartline and the Raiders' Louis Murphy -- has played against six elite wide receivers this season. One of the game's best, Randy Moss, has had the unfortunate task of being guarded by Revis twice in 11 weeks.

In a combined seven games vs. Revis, Andre Johnson, Moss, Marques Colston, Terrell Owens, Mike Sims-Walker and Steve Smith (the Carolina version) have 26 receptions for 193 yards and two touchdowns. The per-game averages: 3.7 catches for 27.6 yards.

The Jaguars' Sims-Walker -- who, judging by the video highlights on NFL.com, didn't even score his TD against Revis -- is the only one of the six who had more than 35 yards vs. the Jets. The breakdown of the six wideouts' stats vs. Revis and the Jets:

-- Week 1, Andre Johnson: 4 receptions, 35 yards, 0 TDs
-- Week 2, Randy Moss: 4-24-0
-- Week 11, Moss: 5-34-1
-- Week 4, Marques Colston: 2-33-0
-- Week 6, Terrell Owens: 3-13-0
-- Week 10, Sims-Walker: 3-49-1
-- Week 12, Steve Smith: 1-5-0

All of which leads me to make the Master of the Obvious Recommendation that you sit the Bills' Owens tonight against the Jets, despite the fact that our favorite VH1 reality star is coming off his two best games of the season.

With Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, Owens has 14 receptions for 293 yards and two TDs in two games. In nine games before Buffalo entered yet another QB era, T.O. had one TD, zero 100-yard games and one game in which he had more than 60 yards receiving.

If you have a better option as your No. 3 receiver, bench Owens. And hope you don't have your top receiver facing Revis in the fantasy playoffs (we're talking to you, Roddy White owners).

Before we get to the start-and-sit lists for tonight's game, here are a few quick notes on the defenses:

-- The Bills are the league's worst against the run (165.1 yards per game, 16 rushing TDs allowed) but rank seventh defending the pass. Buffalo has the second-most interceptions in the NFL (21), has allowed the second-fewest TD passes (9), and opposing QBs have posted the second-worst rating (61.2).

-- The Jets, not surprisingly, are very good vs. the pass (No. 2, 176 yards allowed per game). New York has given up the fewest TD passes (7), and opposing passers have the third-worst rating (65.9). The Jets rank 13th vs. the run at 108.2 yards per game and have allowed eight rushing TDs.

On to the start-and-sit advice ...

START

Jets: RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, K Jay Feely, defense and special teams

Bills:
None (unless you're weak at wide receiver and can't do better than T.O. as your No. 3)

Quick slants: Jones rushed for 210 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries against Buffalo in Week 6, a game the Bills won, 16-13 in overtime. He has a rushing TD in six of his last eight games and has had 21 or more attempts in six straight. ... Keller is the only Jets pass-catcher I would play because of his production in his last four games (21 catches for 240 yards and a score). ... The Jets rank second in total defense (283.9 yards per game) and have forced the seventh-most turnovers (21).

SIT

Jets: QB Mark Sanchez, WR Braylon Edwards, WR Jerricho Cotchery

Bills: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Marshawn Lynch, RB Fred Jackson, WR Terrell Owens, WR Lee Evans, K Rian Lindell, defense and special teams

Quick slants: Sanchez has thrown for only 502 yards in his last three games, and has two TDs and seven picks in that span. ... Cotchery had one catch for 12 yards last week. ... Edwards hasn't scored in his last three games and has four catches for 50 yards in his last two. The former Browns wideout has had only one game with more than 79 yards receiving (he had three catches for 40 yards in the first meeting with Buffalo). ... Fitzpatrick has thrown for 543 yards and rushed for 55 yards in two games, with three total TDs (one on the ground). But he's also thrown three interceptions. ... Jackson (73 yards rushing, two TDs) was productive last week after getting the start over Lynch, but he had only 15 carries for 52 yards and zero TDs against the Jets in Week 6. ... Lynch, who has been bothered by a shoulder injury, has zero TDs in his last four games and has rushed for 43 yards or fewer in five straight. ... Evans, after scoring four times in a four-game span from Weeks 6-10, has three catches for 55 yards and no scores in two games with Fitzpatrick behind center.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Fantasy football: More dos and don'ts, injury updates, start-and-sit advice and expanded playlist for Week 12

In this week’s column, I break down the must-starts and dos and don’ts for the remainder of the season.

Let’s get to a few leftovers, which only seems fitting on this day, before the usual injury updates:

DO ...


-- Consider starting both Cardinals running backs — Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower — when the matchup is right (i.e., Weeks 15 and 16, when Arizona plays at Detroit and hosts St. Louis).

In the last two games, Wells has rushed 30 times for 159 yards (5.3-yard average) and three touchdowns, and caught four passes for 43 yards. In that span, Hightower has 24 carries for 147 yards (6.1 average) and seven catches for 36 yards. For the season, the latter has 47 receptions and five rushing TDs.

Of the two, Wells is the better play, but Hightower is still an effective flex start or lower-echelon No. 2 running back in point-per-reception leagues.

-- Consider Davone Bess as a No. 3 receiver in PPR leagues. The Dolphins’ top receiver has 20 catches in his last four games and 16 in his last three. I would only play him when the matchup is favorable, which is especially true in Weeks 14 at Jacksonville (No. 25 vs. the pass) and 15 at Tennessee (No. 31).

DON’T ...

-- Trust the Saints’ running backs unless the matchup is favorable. Pierre Thomas is the best in terms of yardage, Mike Bell has a tendency to steal the goal-line carries and Reggie Bush had five TDs in his last five games prior to sitting out last week and, when healthy, is the best receiver of the three.

Thomas is still the best fantasy option, but if you have two productive running backs, consider both Thomas and Bell flex plays on a week-to-week basis.

-- Get too excited over Terrell Owens’ huge Week 11, when the Bills receiver had nine catches for 197 yards, including a 98-yard TD, against the Jaguars. Prior to last week, Owens hadn’t scored since Week 2 and he had only 26 catches for 366 yards in nine games. He’s still a No. 3 receiver with whom you should play the matchup game. Owens is a decent play this week against the Dolphins, who rank 22nd against the pass.

Injury updates

-- Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisbeger — who suffered head injuries last week — are both expected to start. The Cardinals’ Warner has the much more favorable matchup of the two — a game at Tennessee, which ranks 31st against the pass and has given up 25 touchdown tosses. Roethlisberger and the Steelers play at the Ravens, who rank 17th vs. the pass but have as many interceptions (11) as touchdown passes allowed. Play both if they’re active, although Roethlsiberger isn’t a top-10 start this week.

-- Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo will play today after being bothered by a back injury. The Raiders have been stingy against the pass — No. 12 in yardage and only eight TD passes allowed — but I would still start Romo.

-- Bengals running back Cedric Benson (hip injury) practiced Wednesday and is expected to play. He is listed as questionable, but if he practices again Friday (the critical day from an injury standpoint for most players), you should feel safe in keeping him in your lineup. If he’s a late scratch, backup Bernard Scott is a very good start against the Browns and their 28th-ranked run defense.

-- Falcons running back Michael Turner, who missed last week’s game because of a high ankle sprain, also practiced Wednesday and hopes to play, but he sounds more iffy than Benson. If Turner plays, start him against the Bucs, the league’s worst run defense. If he doesn’t, backup Jason Snelling is worth a spot in your lineup.

-- Seahawks running back Julius Jones has missed practice with a bruised lung, but is expected to start Sunday. If he’s active, he’s a quality option as a flex play against the Rams (No. 28 vs. the run). The same goes for backup Justin Forsett should Jones sit for a second consecutive game.

-- Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, who is nursing hand and knee injuries, will be a game-time decision for today’s Thanksgiving tilt against the Packers. His value is also hurt by Daunte Culpepper’s presence at quarterback in place of the injured Matthew Stafford. If Johnson is active, play him. If he isn’t, don’t look at teammates Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt for help.

-- Running backs Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook are still out because of concussions, leaving the starting jobs for the Redskins and Eagles to Rock Cartwright and LeSean McCoy, respectively. McCoy is a top-10 start at his position this week, and Cartwright should be considered no better than a flex play at the Eagles (No. 10 vs. the run).

Five to start

This week’s look at part-time starters and fantasy backups who should benefit from a favorable matchup:

-- Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals, vs. Browns:
He has only 385 yards passing and zero touchdowns in his last two games, but he threw for 230 yards and two scores in the Bengals’ Week 4 win at Cleveland. I would expect similar numbers Sunday against the Browns’ No. 26 pass defense.

-- LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers, vs. Chiefs: He’s been disappointing, but there are signs of life — five TDs in his last four games and 169 rushing yards in his last two. The Chiefs rank 27th vs. the run.

-- Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys, vs. Raiders:
The former fantasy stud ran for 99 yards last week, his second-highest total of the season and the most he’s had since Week 2. Barber should reach the century mark vs. the Raiders, who rank 30th vs. the run and have given up 11 rushing TDs.

-- Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs, at Chargers: He has scored in each of his last two games, a span in which Larry Johnson’s replacement has 183 total yards and six catches. The Chargers have struggled against the run (No. 21).

-- Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers, vs. Jaguars: The rookie had his best fantasy game as a pro last week, catching four passes for 77 yards and a TD. Make it two straight games with a score, as the Jags rank 25th against the pass and have allowed 17 touchdowns through the air.

More matchups I like:

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys, vs. Raiders; Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers; Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks, at Rams; David Garrard, QB, Jaguars, at 49ers; Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots, at Saints; Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WRs, Seahawks, at Rams; Terrell Owens, WR, Bills, vs. Dolphins; Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts, at Texans; Michael Jenkins, WR, Falcons, at Buccaneers

Three to sit


If you have a decent backup, these starters should take a seat for a week:

-- Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants, at Broncos:
He has yet to rush for 100 yards this season and has only three touchdowns, which should give him a seat on your bench unless you’re hurting for a second running back.

-- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos, vs. Giants: He’s rushed for 177 yards on only 28 carries the last two weeks (6.3-yard average), but he hasn’t scored in his last three contests and the Giants rank 11th vs. the run (one caveat: The G-Men have allowed 14 rushing TDs).

-- Steve Slaton, RB, Texans, vs. Colts: Chris Brown is the latest back to share carries with Slaton (it was fun while it lasted, Ryan Moats), but even with the demotion in playing time, Slaton still has four TDs in his last five games and 24 catches in his last six. Regardless, you should have better options than playing the second-year back against the Colts’ No. 13 run defense.

More matchups I don’t like:

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, vs. Steelers; Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos, vs. Giants; Rock Cartwright, RB, Redskins, at Eagles; Santana Moss, WR, Redskins, at Eagles

Last week


The start list, for the first time all season, was 5-for-5. Eli Manning (384 yards passing, three touchdowns, one interception), Kevin Smith (45 yards rushing, four receptions for 104 yards and a TD), Bernard Scott (119 yards rushing, three catches for 32 yards), LeSean McCoy (99 yards rushing, one TD) and Beanie Wells (74 yards rushing, one TD, two receptions for 11 yards) all have productive games.

The all-QB sit list was 2-for-3, as Jay Cutler (171 yards passing, one TD, one interception, 11 yards rushing) and Joe Flacco (256 yards passing, zero TDs and one pick) struggled. Benching Matt Ryan (268 yards passing, two touchdowns, 14 yards rushing) was not a good idea.

Playlist

QUARTERBACKS
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers, at Lions (No. 32 vs. the pass)
2. Peyton Manning, Colts, at Texans (No. 15)
3. Philip Rivers, Chargers, vs. Chiefs (No. 28)
4. Drew Brees, Saints, vs. Patriots (No. 6)
5. Tom Brady, Patriots, at Saints (No. 16)
6. x-Kurt Warner, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 31)
7. Carson Palmer, Bengals, vs. Browns (No. 26)
8. Matt Schaub, Texans, vs. Colts (No. 18)
9. Brett Favre, Vikings, vs. Bears (No. 8)
10. Matt Ryan, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers (No. 14)
11. x-Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, at Ravens (No. 17)
12. Tony Romo, Cowboys, vs. Raiders (No. 12)
13. Donovan McNabb, Eagles, vs. Redskins (No. 1)
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, at Rams (No. 24)
15. Eli Manning, Giants, at Broncos (No. 3)
16. Jay Cutler, Bears, vs. Vikings (No. 21)
17. David Garrard, Jaguars, at 49ers (No. 30)
18. Matt Cassel, Chiefs, at Chargers (No. 11)
19. Joe Flacco, Ravens, vs. Steelers (No. 13)
20. x-Kyle Orton, Broncos, vs. Giants (No. 2)
x-Make sure Warner, Roethlisberger and Orton (who has a sprained ankle) are active. All are expected to play.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, vs. Bears (No. 23 vs. the run)
2. Ricky Williams, Dolphins, at Bills (No. 31)
3. Joseph Addai, Colts, at Texans (No. 22)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, at 49ers (No. 6)
5. Chris Johnson, Titans, vs. Cardinals (No. 8)
6. Steven Jackson, Rams, vs. Seahawks (No. 15)
7. Frank Gore, 49ers, vs. Jaguars (No. 17)
8. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, at Jets (No. 16)
9. LeSean McCoy, Eagles, vs. Redskins (No. 25)
10. Ryan Grant, Packers, at Lions (No. 20)
11. x-Michael Turner, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers (No. 32)
12. x-Cedric Benson, Bengals, vs. Browns (No. 29)
13. Ray Rice, Ravens, vs. Steelers (No. 1)
14. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, vs. Chiefs (No. 27)
15. Matt Forte, Bears, at Vikings (No. 3)
16. Marion Barber, Cowboys, vs. Raiders (No. 30)
17. x-Julius Jones, Seahawks, at Rams (No. 24)
18. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers, at Ravens (No. 5)
19. Kevin Smith, Lions, vs. Packers (No. 4)
20. Laurence Maroney, Patriots, at Saints (No. 19)
21. Beanie Wells, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 9)
22. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, at Chargers (No. 21)
23. Pierre Thomas, Saints, vs. Patriots (No. 14)
24. Tim Hightower, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 9)
x-Make sure Turner, Benson and Jones are active.

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 31 vs. the pass)
2. Randy Moss, Patriots, at Saints (No. 16)
3. Reggie Wayne, Colts, at Texans (No. 15)
4. Roddy White, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers (No. 14)
5. Vincent Jackson, Chargers, vs. Chiefs (No. 28)
6. Wes Welker, Patriots, at Saints (No. 16)
7. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals, at Titans (No. 31)
8. Andre Johnson, Texans, vs. Colts (No. 18)
9. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, vs. Browns (No. 26)
10. Donald Driver, Packers, at Lions (No. 32)
11. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, at 49ers (No. 30)
12. x-Calvin Johnson, Lions, vs. Packers (No. 7)
13. DeSean Jackson, Eagles, vs. Redskins (No. 1)
14. Greg Jennings, Packers, at Lions (No. 32)
15. Steve Smith, Giants, at Broncos (No. 3)
16. Nate Burleson, Seahawks, at Rams (No. 24)
17. Marques Colston, Saints, vs. Patriots (No. 6)
18. Brandon Marshall, Broncos, vs. Giants (No. 2)
19. Steve Smith, Panthers, at Jets (No. 4)
20. Hines Ward, Steelers, at Ravens (No. 17)
21. Miles Austin, Cowboys, vs. Raiders (No. 12)
22. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks, at Rams (No. 24)
23. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, vs. Jaguars (No. 25)
24. Sidney Rice, Vikings, vs. Bears (No. 8)
25. Terrell Owens, Bills, vs. Dolphins (No. 22)
26. Santonio Holmes, Steelers, at Ravens (No. 17)
27. Derrick Mason, Ravens, vs. Steelers (No. 13)
28. Mario Manningham, Giants, at Broncos (No. 3)
29. Chris Chambers, Chiefs, at Chargers (No. 11)
30. Devin Hester, Bears, at Vikings (No. 21)
31. Percy Harvin, Vikings, vs. Bears (No. 8)
32. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, vs. Panthers (No. 5)
33. Pierre Garcon, Colts, at Texans (No. 15)
34. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles, vs. Redskins (No. 1)
35. Kevin Walter, Texans, vs. Colts (No. 18)
36. Lee Evans, Bills, vs. Dolphins (No. 22)
x-Make sure Johnson (knee and hand injuries) is active Thursday.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL: Who are the must-starts at each position (even kicker)? Kevin Kleps has the answers here. The link also includes this week’s audiocast by Kleps and Sports Editor Mark Podolski.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Fantasy football: No-huddle offense for Week 8

Beanie Wells, like Rashard Mendenhall before him, might be one who got away -- a running back you released because he wasn't producing and you needed the roster space due to bye-week restrictions.

But if you had Week 7 in your When Will A Healthy (For Now) Beanie Show Signs Of Life, Ticking Owner X Off In the Process office pool (what, you don't have one?), you, like the guy who selected Ray Rice in the sixth round, followed by Ben Roethlisberger in the seventh, are a winner.

In his last two games, Wells has 30 touches (26 rushes and four receptions) -- six more than his total for the Cardinals' first four games. The former Buckeye had 14 carries for 67 yards last week -- to starter Tim Hightower's 4-for-9 effort. Coach Ken Whisenhunt said the latter is still his starter, but with a two-year average of 2.9 yards per carry and a season total of 167 yards rushing, you have to figure the job will be Wells' soon.

Wells should be considered a low-end No. 2 running back this week, since six teams are on a bye and the Cardinals will play host to the Panthers, who rank 26th against the run. Even better: Arizona's next five opponents are Carolina, Chicago (No. 18 vs. the run), Seattle (No. 14), St. Louis (No. 27) and Tennessee (No. 9). The five teams have allowed a combined 33 rushing touchdowns in 31 games.

Hightower, who has 31 catches for 239 yards, is only an asset in point-per-reception leagues. Soon, he might not be anything more than a No. 4 fantasy back.

Marching to a familiar beat: Another team with a favorable upcoming schedule and a confusing running-back situation is the undefeated Saints, who are so prolific and so generous the only fantasy givens are quarterback Drew Brees and receiver Marques Colston.

In the last two weeks, running back Mike Bell has 27 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown, including a 12-for-80 effort last week. Pierre Thomas -- who ran for 212 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4, when Bell was out because of a knee injury -- has 23 carries for 102 yards in that two-game span. Then there's Reggie Bush, who no longer gets more than seven or eight touches per contest, but has scored a TD in each of his last two games.

Since the Saints are averaging 427.3 total yards and 39.7 points per game, I'd expect them to stick with what works, which is dividing the majority of the carries between Bell and Thomas, with Bush getting a handful, along with a few catches.

All of which makes Bell and Thomas no better than a No. 3 running back, but the pair will be enticing the next four weeks, when New Orleans faces Atlanta (No. 19 vs. the run), Carolina (No. 26), St. Louis (No. 27) and Tampa Bay (No. 29). Both can be considered low-end No. 2 backs if bye weeks have wreaked their usual havoc on your roster.

LeChange in Philly: Brian Westbrook missed practiced again Thursday, and it seems more and more likely the Eagles running back will sit out Sunday's game against the Giants, who, surprisingly, have allowed more rushing touchdowns (10) than all but the Raiders and Rams this season. If Westbrook sits, rookie LeSean McCoy can be counted on to be a No. 2 back, especially in PPR leagues. When Westbrook missed the Eagles' 34-14 win over the Chiefs in Week 3, McCoy had 20 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown.

Start 'em

-- Sidney Rice, not Bernard Berrian or Percy Harvin, is the Vikings' most productive receiver. He has 33 catches for 545 yards and two TDs in seven games, and 16 catches for 312 yards in his last two. He should now be considered an every-week regular.

-- No longer just a return specialist (sorry, Josh Cribbs), the Bears' Devin Hester has 14 catches for 184 yards and a TD in his last two games. Up this week: the Browns, who rank 28th vs. the pass and No. 32 overall.

Sit 'em

-- Braylon Edwards is back to his old tricks in his new home. Aftter a productive first game with the Jets (a five-catch, 64-yard, one-TD performance at Miami on "Monday Night Football"), the former Browns wideout has four receptions for 54 yards and zero TDs the last two weeks. I can only come up with two reasons to play him this week: the opponent again is Miami, and with six teams off, you probably have to start the butterfingered one.

-- Terrell Owens has been even more quiet on the fantasy front than in the throwing-his-quarterback-under-the-bus department this season. In his first season with the Bills, T.O. has yet to have more than 60 yards receiving in a game, he has one TD all season and none in his last five contests. Has he lost a step? Should he be blasting Ryan Fitzpatrick? Whatever the answer, Owens is a No. 3 receiver only in weeks in which byes are a factor.

Drop 'em

If you need the roster space, it's time to bid adieu to Browns running back Jamal Lewis (zero touchdowns, only one game with more than 57 rushing yards), Jets tight end Dustin Keller (three catches for 42 yards in his last three games), Cowboys running back Tashard Choice (who's not a factor in Dallas' backfield as long as both Marion Barber and Felix Jones are healthy) and Dolphins receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (five catches for 77 yards and a TD in his last four games).

On deck: Saturday, we'll look at the projected impact of a pair of young running backs who will now play prominent roles -- the Jets' Shonn Greene and the Chiefs' Jamaal Charles. The weekly column for the print editions will be posted on the Sports section of the News-Herald's Web site, and the link will also include our weekly audiocast. Saturday, we'll also have the "big blog," with start-and-sit advice, injury updates and an expanded playlist. That will be published in this space and on the N-H's Sports site.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,