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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Fantasy baseball: Replacing Manny

As fantasy owners, we are usually prepared for injuries. We know when players have a history of being brittle, and we know the ones who seem to be breaking down.

Thanks to the Steroids Era, we have something else for which we need to prepare.

Suspensions.

With seemingly every big-name bat sullied in some way, losing Manny Ramirez for 50 games because of the use of a performance-enhancing drug really shouldn't be a surprise. At this point, we're an Albert Pujols or Grady Sizemore positive test away from believing any and everyone is dirty.

Naively, though, we figured drafting Manny meant getting first-round talent in the second round -- a future Hall of Famer who has hit at least 33 homers and driven in 100 runs or more in 10 of the last 11 years. He batted .292 or better in each of the previous 11 seasons.

Now, we're left with ... Juan Pierre?

Ramirez's 50-game suspension takes him out of the picture until July 3 -- near the end of Week 13 of the fantasy season. That leaves Manny owners scrambling for the next eight weeks, or almost twice as many games as A-Rod owners are likely to be without their disgraced star.

One obvious replacement is Pierre, who figures to get regular playing time in the Dodgers' outfield with Ramirez gone.

Pierre is batting .355 this season, but that's in 31 at-bats. He'll help you in stolen bases, batting average and not much else.

He has only 13 homers in 5,184 career at-bats, and he's never driven in more than 55 runs, even though he played the first three seasons of his career in Colorado. He did, however, score 96 runs or more five times in seven seasons from 2001-07, and he entered 2009 with eight consecutive seasons with at least 40 steals.

In deeper leagues, he's a decent No. 3 outfielder who will provide a big boost to your stolen-base totals. Since he has no power, he's not an adequate replacement for Manny unless you have significant home-run and RBI options elsewhere in your lineup.

Let's look at four tiers of possible outfield replacements for Ramirez. The first group consists of players who are owned in 25 to 50 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, followed by 10 to 25 percent, fewer than 10 percent and players who are outfield-eligible but start at other positions. We've mentioned quite a few of these guys in previous blogs that analyzed the best possible free agents.

25-50 percent

4. Dexter Fowler, Rockies (42.6 percent): He'll help you in steals (nine thus far, although five were in one game), but the rookie is in a 4-for-24 slump and doesn't have a lot of pop.

3. Chris Duncan, Cardinals (48.3): His batting average is mediocre (.275 this season and .248 the year before), but he drives in a lot of runs (19 this year, a combined 97 in 597 at-bats in 2007 and '08) and is capable of hitting 20-plus homers (three this season, a combined 27 the previous two years).

2. Denard Span, Twins (38.1): He hits for average (.305), is fast (seven steals) and isn't bad in the RBI department (14 this season, 47 in 347 at-bats in 2008).

1. Elijah Dukes, Nationals (37.3): He's batting .298, is powerful (four homers this season, 13 in 276 at-bats last year) and fast (13 steals in 2008).

10-25 percent

4. Michael Bourn, Astros (17 percent): Don't put too much stock into his .299 average (he batted .229 last season). Bourn will help you in steals (eight this year, 41 in 2008) and runs scored.

3. Daniel Murphy, Mets (23.3): He batted .313 as a rookie last season and is one point better thus far (.314).

2. Ryan Spilborghs, Rockies (18.5): He's anything but a big name, but his stats are surprisingly solid (.281, three homers, 14 RBI, 16 runs, four steals). In a combined 497 at-bats in 2007 and '08, he batted .306 with 17 homers and 87 RBI.

1. Melky Cabrera, Yankees (20.6): He won his center-field job back, and he's not going anywhere, thanks to a .338 batting average, four homers, 10 RBI, 14 runs and three steals in only 68 at-bats.

Fewer than 10 percent

4. Garret Anderson, Braves (3.2 percent): He's a .296 career hitter who has driven in 75 runs or more in each of the previous 12 years. Anderson returned from a calf injury to drive in three runs on Wednesday.

3. Michael Cuddyer, Twins (2.9):
He was very good in 2006 (.284, 24 homers, 109 RBI), decent in 2007 (.276, 16, 81) and has been only OK this season (.263, 2, 14, three steals).

2. Josh Anderson, Tigers (5.4): He doesn't play every day (eight starts in the last 12 games), but with Carlos Guillen on the disabled list, he should get enough at-bats to give you a spark in steals (six this season) and batting average (.333).

1. Marlon Byrd, Rangers (6.3): With a .330 batting average and 16 RBI, he's underrated. In 817 at-bats from 2007 to '08, Byrd hit 20 homers, had 123 RBI, 12 steals, 130 runs scored and batted .302.

Eligibility check

Oakland designated hitter Jack Cust (owned in 24.6 percent of the ESPN.com leagues) can play the outfield in some leagues. Same for Angels first baseman Kendry Morales (16.9), Royals third baseman Mark Teahen (14.1) and Twins DH Jason Kubel (40.9).

All four are adequate power options, especially Kubel (a combined 33 homers and 143 RBI in 881 at-bats in 2007 and '08) and Cust (59 homers in 876 at-bats in that span).

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Sunday, April 19, 2009

Fantasy baseball: News and notes from Week 2

The Indians are off to another awful April start. Their starting pitching has been dreadful, and their bullpen is a Kane Davis or Jorge Julio sighting from being even worse.

None of that will stop us from our best Eric Wedge impersonation today. We're going to keep our eyes on the prize, stay focused, continue to grind it out and look at the positives. OK, we're just going to look at the positives -- the Tribe's surprising offensive numbers (stats that are skewed by their 22-4 win over the Yankees on Saturday in The House That George Built and Hitters Love).

Through Sunday, the Indians rank seventh in the major leagues in batting average (.280), are second in runs scored (83), home runs (22), on-base percentage (.380) and OPS (.875). The Indians lead the big leagues in doubles (33), are tied for third in RBI (79) and, here's a shocker, have rung up the most strikeouts (115 in 13 games).

All of which means the following from a fantasy perspective:

-- Every-week starters: Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, Mark DeRosa, Travis Hafner and Jhonny Peralta. Sizemore is striking out as much as ever (17 in 54 at-bats) and is batting only .259, but you can't sit that combination of speed and power. ... Martinez's power has returned (he has four homers, which is double his 2008 total), and his .466 OBP doesn't hurt. ... Don't bench DeRosa strictly because of his batting average (.236). The versatile infielder has three homers and 15 RBI in his last eight games. ... Hafner has four homers and eight RBI, but isn't as much of an asset in points leagues that penalize for strikeouts (14 in 42 at-bats). ... Peralta has yet to hit a homer, but he's batting .333 and has an OBP of .404.

-- Backups: Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera. Choo has three homers and eight RBI in 43 at-bats, and he's a rare member of the Tribe who has more walks (nine) than strikeouts (eight). ... Cabrera has been surprisingly effective (.333, 10 runs scored, one homer, seven RBI and two steals), but should only be started in deeper leagues in which you need infield help.

-- Not much help: Ryan Garko, Kelly Shoppach and Ben Francisco. Garko is batting .300 with a .447 on-base percentage, but he doesn't play every day and has just one homer. That's not enough power at a position as loaded as first base. ... Shoppach, who hit 21 homers last season, doesn't play enough (24 at-bats in 13 games) and has already struck out nine times. ... Even Wedge couldn't find something to like in Francisco's stats (.211, one homer, four RBI).

That sound you just heard was Nick Swisher coming back to earth. The Yankees outfielder, after starting the season 11-for-24 (.458) with four homers and 11 RBI, is 3-for-18 with one run, zero RBI and six strikeouts in his last four games.

Tick, tick, tick ... Fantasy owners who took a chance on Alex Rodriguez in the second, third or fourth rounds might be rewarded sooner than originally thought. A-Rod is already taking batting practice and fielding ground balls, making the original May 15 timetable for his return from hip surgery seem pessimistic. I'm no doctor, and I don't play one on the Internet, but here's a guess: A-Rod will be in all fantasy lineups by the start of Week 6 on Monday, May 11 -- at the latest.

You don't need me to tell you to bench Chien-Ming Wang. But I wouldn't drop him, as is happening in many leagues, even with that slow-pitch softball ERA (34.50).

Pick three

In the fantasy baseball column that was published in Saturday's editions, I wrote about three free agents who were worth picking up in deeper leagues (Kyle Davies, Chris Duncan and Randy Winn), with the rule of thumb that each player must be available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com.

Let's look at three more:

Denard Span, OF, Twins -- He's young (25), fast (three stolen bases this year, and 18 in 347 at-bats last season) and drives in a decent amount of runs (nine this season, 47 in a little more than half a season in 2008). He's also batting .300 and has been so effective that the playing time of Carlos Gomez (.200) and Delmon Young (.212) has suffered.

Jason Kubel, DH, Twins -- He hit for the cycle on Friday, which only jumped his ownership percentage to 7.4 entering Sunday night on ESPN.com. The fact Kubel is only a DH limits you, but he'll hit for power (a combined 33 homers in 881 at-bats in 2007 and '08) and his batting average (.333) and OPS (.939) are too good to pass up as a low-end starter in 12-team leagues.

Zach Duke, SP, Pirates -- His poor outing Sunday notwithstanding, Duke has resembled his 2005 rookie self (8-2, 1.81 ERA), not the 18-37 train wreck from 2006-08. The lefty is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA. The negative: He won't help you much in the strikeout department (11 in 20 2/3 innings this season, and 314 in 613 career innings).

That does it for this week. Good luck, keep your head up and (channeling my inner Eric Wedge) remember there's a lot of baseball left to be played.

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