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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Fantasy baseball: Replacing Manny

As fantasy owners, we are usually prepared for injuries. We know when players have a history of being brittle, and we know the ones who seem to be breaking down.

Thanks to the Steroids Era, we have something else for which we need to prepare.

Suspensions.

With seemingly every big-name bat sullied in some way, losing Manny Ramirez for 50 games because of the use of a performance-enhancing drug really shouldn't be a surprise. At this point, we're an Albert Pujols or Grady Sizemore positive test away from believing any and everyone is dirty.

Naively, though, we figured drafting Manny meant getting first-round talent in the second round -- a future Hall of Famer who has hit at least 33 homers and driven in 100 runs or more in 10 of the last 11 years. He batted .292 or better in each of the previous 11 seasons.

Now, we're left with ... Juan Pierre?

Ramirez's 50-game suspension takes him out of the picture until July 3 -- near the end of Week 13 of the fantasy season. That leaves Manny owners scrambling for the next eight weeks, or almost twice as many games as A-Rod owners are likely to be without their disgraced star.

One obvious replacement is Pierre, who figures to get regular playing time in the Dodgers' outfield with Ramirez gone.

Pierre is batting .355 this season, but that's in 31 at-bats. He'll help you in stolen bases, batting average and not much else.

He has only 13 homers in 5,184 career at-bats, and he's never driven in more than 55 runs, even though he played the first three seasons of his career in Colorado. He did, however, score 96 runs or more five times in seven seasons from 2001-07, and he entered 2009 with eight consecutive seasons with at least 40 steals.

In deeper leagues, he's a decent No. 3 outfielder who will provide a big boost to your stolen-base totals. Since he has no power, he's not an adequate replacement for Manny unless you have significant home-run and RBI options elsewhere in your lineup.

Let's look at four tiers of possible outfield replacements for Ramirez. The first group consists of players who are owned in 25 to 50 percent of the leagues on ESPN.com, followed by 10 to 25 percent, fewer than 10 percent and players who are outfield-eligible but start at other positions. We've mentioned quite a few of these guys in previous blogs that analyzed the best possible free agents.

25-50 percent

4. Dexter Fowler, Rockies (42.6 percent): He'll help you in steals (nine thus far, although five were in one game), but the rookie is in a 4-for-24 slump and doesn't have a lot of pop.

3. Chris Duncan, Cardinals (48.3): His batting average is mediocre (.275 this season and .248 the year before), but he drives in a lot of runs (19 this year, a combined 97 in 597 at-bats in 2007 and '08) and is capable of hitting 20-plus homers (three this season, a combined 27 the previous two years).

2. Denard Span, Twins (38.1): He hits for average (.305), is fast (seven steals) and isn't bad in the RBI department (14 this season, 47 in 347 at-bats in 2008).

1. Elijah Dukes, Nationals (37.3): He's batting .298, is powerful (four homers this season, 13 in 276 at-bats last year) and fast (13 steals in 2008).

10-25 percent

4. Michael Bourn, Astros (17 percent): Don't put too much stock into his .299 average (he batted .229 last season). Bourn will help you in steals (eight this year, 41 in 2008) and runs scored.

3. Daniel Murphy, Mets (23.3): He batted .313 as a rookie last season and is one point better thus far (.314).

2. Ryan Spilborghs, Rockies (18.5): He's anything but a big name, but his stats are surprisingly solid (.281, three homers, 14 RBI, 16 runs, four steals). In a combined 497 at-bats in 2007 and '08, he batted .306 with 17 homers and 87 RBI.

1. Melky Cabrera, Yankees (20.6): He won his center-field job back, and he's not going anywhere, thanks to a .338 batting average, four homers, 10 RBI, 14 runs and three steals in only 68 at-bats.

Fewer than 10 percent

4. Garret Anderson, Braves (3.2 percent): He's a .296 career hitter who has driven in 75 runs or more in each of the previous 12 years. Anderson returned from a calf injury to drive in three runs on Wednesday.

3. Michael Cuddyer, Twins (2.9):
He was very good in 2006 (.284, 24 homers, 109 RBI), decent in 2007 (.276, 16, 81) and has been only OK this season (.263, 2, 14, three steals).

2. Josh Anderson, Tigers (5.4): He doesn't play every day (eight starts in the last 12 games), but with Carlos Guillen on the disabled list, he should get enough at-bats to give you a spark in steals (six this season) and batting average (.333).

1. Marlon Byrd, Rangers (6.3): With a .330 batting average and 16 RBI, he's underrated. In 817 at-bats from 2007 to '08, Byrd hit 20 homers, had 123 RBI, 12 steals, 130 runs scored and batted .302.

Eligibility check

Oakland designated hitter Jack Cust (owned in 24.6 percent of the ESPN.com leagues) can play the outfield in some leagues. Same for Angels first baseman Kendry Morales (16.9), Royals third baseman Mark Teahen (14.1) and Twins DH Jason Kubel (40.9).

All four are adequate power options, especially Kubel (a combined 33 homers and 143 RBI in 881 at-bats in 2007 and '08) and Cust (59 homers in 876 at-bats in that span).

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Monday, May 4, 2009

Fantasy baseball: News and notes from Week 4

There is no more difficult statistic to analyze in fantasy baseball than the stolen base.

Most of the time, it's overrated. Players who have no business being selected in the third or fourth round of the draft are taken because of one stat: the steal. In category leagues, players such as Carl Crawford have the ability to take the point all by themselves -- witness Crawford's six-steal effort Sunday against Boston.

I've always taken a simple approach with the steal -- I underrate it.

I'd rather select players who will help me in three or four areas instead of one. Most of the stolen-base threats are one- or two-dimensional. They'll help you in steals and maybe runs scored, but not much else.

Of the six players who have stolen eight bases or more (two per week) this season, only two (Crawford and the Angels' Bobby Abreu, who has a surprising 11 steals) have reached double figures in RBI. The six have combined for a grand total of four home runs, and the group includes a .226 hitter who has three RBI (the annually overrated Chone Figgins) and a player who recorded five of his nine steals in one game (Colorado's Dexter Foxler).

Players such as Abreu (who has yet to hit a homer, but averaged 22 long balls the previous 11 years) and Texas' Ian Kinsler are draft-day gold. They'll steal bases, but they also will hit for power and average.

But for every Abreu and Kinsler, there are four or five Michael Bourns and Chone Figgins.

If you drafted Crawford, who is healthy after a mediocre, beat-up 2008, you did the right thing -- even if you reached for him in the third round. He's on pace to steal 105 bases, he's batting .317 and he should score more than 100 runs.

He's not much of a power boost -- he has yet to hit a homer -- but you can ignore that as long as he's helping you in a few other categories.

With Crawford, that is the case. With most of the speed guys, that is not.

So long, Travis: Tribe designated hitter Travis Hafner is on the disabled list with (boring Eric Wedge quote alert) what his manager describes as "some soreness and a little fatigue" in his bothersome shoulder.

Translation: We gave this guy a huge contract, he was terrible last year, he had offseason surgery on his shoulder and now we've typed the 14 words no organization wants to include in a press release: "(Enter player's name) is heading to Birmingham, Alabama, to be examined by Dr. James Andrews."

The Indians are downplaying the injury, and maybe they're right. But I don't blame the 17 percent of owners in ESPN.com leagues who dropped Hafner last week (his ownership percentage is down to 66.1).

Since hitting his fourth homer of the season on April 18 at Yankee Bandbox, Hafner is batting .240 (6-for-25) in eight games. In that span, he scored one run and had zero RBI.

His days as a fantasy force might be over, which is a gentle way of saying I wouldn't count of him helping you the rest of the season.

Pick three

This week's look at three possible free agents who should be an asset in deeper leagues, with the rule of thumb that all must be available in more than half of the leagues on ESPN.com:

Russell Branyan, 1B, Mariners: He hits a lot of homers and he strikes out a lot more. Lately, though, he's been Albert Pujols-like (only if Pujols struck out way too much): Since April 24, Branyan is batting .368 with four homers, four doubles, 11 RBI and nine runs scored in nine games.

He's a career .233 hitter who has an amazing 816 strikeouts in 2,071 at-bats, so you know he won't sustain his success. But he's also eligible at third base, where he's more of an asset than at first in fantasy, and he's a home-run and RBI machine when he's on his game.

Again, it's not going to last. But if you need help at third, allow Russell to give you some needed muscle for a week or two. Just remember to bench him once he goes on one of his patented runs of 0-for-15 with 10 strikeouts.

Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: Brett Gardner opened the season as the Yankees' starting center fielder, but Cabrera has taken over, starting nine of the last 10 games. He's hit in seven straight games, and he's batting .321 with four homers and 10 RBI in 56 at-bats this season.

Cabrera wasn't much of an asset last season, when he batted .249 with eight homers and 37 RBI, but he was decent in 2006 and '07 (a combined 15 homers, 123 RBI and 141 runs in 1,005 at-bats). In deeper leagues, he can be a serviceable third outfielder who is capable of batting .280, scoring 90 runs and hitting 15 homers.

Kurt Suzuki, C, Athletics: I neglected to mention him in the blog about the struggles of catchers this season, which hasn't proven to be a wise move. Suzuki is batting .333 and has hits in 16 of the 20 games in which he's played.

He's only 25 and any catcher who is a threat to hit .300 is worthy of being started. Don't expect much power (Suzuki has 15 homers in 824 career at-bats), but this Athletic can reach double figures in home runs, bat better than .280 and drive in at least 70 runs.

Check back later this week for more NFL draft leftovers, good luck in Week 5 and remember to thank the owner at the top of your draft who selected Hanley Ramirez over Pujols.

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