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News-Herald Assistant Sports Editor Kevin Kleps doesn’t just write headlines and stories. He also checks on his fantasy sports teams. A lot. See if the moves and news from the world of sports affect your fantasy teams.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Fantasy baseball: Analyzing the value of Jacoby Ellsbury

The All-Star break is ending, and you might be getting your first-round draft pick back.

Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who hasn't played since April 13 because of a shoulder injury, is expected to be activated from the disabled list Friday.

Your first reaction might be to start Ellsbury immediately. Depending on your roster, that could be the right move.

My first reaction, especially in weekly leagues in which you have to commit to starting a player for seven straight days -- or in the case of the All-Star break in many leagues, 10, since this week and next week count as one game -- is to sit Ellsbury and give him time to prove to us that he will be healthy enough to stay in the lineup.

Last season, Ellsbury was phenomenal, batting .321 with 32 homers, 105 RBI, 39 steals, 119 runs and a .928 OPS.

In 2010, he was limited to 78 at-bats by injury, and he didn't hit a homer.

In 2009, Ellsbury batted .301 with 70 stolen bases and 94 runs, but he wasn't of much help in the power departments (eight homers and 60 RBI).

Ellsbury is a career .299 hitter, but his 2011 home-run total doesn't mesh with his past performance.

Ellsbury averaged one homer per 20.6 at-bats last season. Prior to 2011, he had 20 homers in 1,398 at-bats -- one per 69.9 at-bats.

Is he a power hitter? I'd say no, but he can still be very productive in every other area, especially steals, runs and batting average.

In two of the leagues in which I participate, I drafted late in the first round of a 12- and 14-team mixed league. I was (un)lucky enough to get Ellsbury in both leagues.

In both leagues, I was fortunate to acquire very good outfielders in Ellsbury's place -- the Cardinals' Allen Craig (waiver wire) in the 12-team league and the White Sox's Alex Rios (draft) in the 14-team league.

In the 14-team league, I also have Josh Hamilton and Jason Heyward in the outfield, which made my decision to bench Ellsbury (I have David Ortiz in the utility spot) pretty easy.

In the 12-team league, I have Hamilton and Desmond Jennings in the outfield. Considering Jennings is batting .231 with five homers, I could have started Ellsbury and not given it much thought, but again, I preferred to wait.

When ESPN.com released its second-half fantasy rankings this week, they ranked Ellsbury 21st in the outfield -- one behind Heyward and 11 ahead of the woefully underrated Rios (.318, 50 runs, 12 homers, 49 RBI and 13 steals).

The ranking on Ellsbury seems about right.

I would view him as a No. 2 outfielder in a 12-team mixed league.

That's quite a few notches below where you and I drafted him, but, considering Ellsbury's totals in 2010 and '12, maybe we should just be happy he is healthy.

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Sunday, February 26, 2012

Fantasy baseball: Early 2012 rankings -- top 100 overall

So much for the most difficult draft-day decision.

The news this week that Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun won't be suspended -- much to Major League Baseball's chagrin, and much to the delight of the fantasy geek in many of us -- changes everything.

OK, not everything. But it does change the pecking order in the outfield and the first round of our drafts.

I was willing to commit a fourth-round pick to the reigning National League MVP when I thought he would miss the first 50 games of the season.

Now: I'd select him over Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp and the other stud outfielders, and I'd consider him ahead of Miguel Cabrera at No. 2 overall. Cabrera gets the nod for one reason: His switch to third base, which increases his value.

On to our early top 100 ...

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels
2. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers
3. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers
4. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays
5. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers
6. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies
7. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers
8. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox
9. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
10. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox
11. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees
12. Prince Fielder, 1B, Tigers
13. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
14. Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies
15. Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees
16. Jose Reyes, SS, Marlins
17. Hanley Ramirez, 3B, Marlins
18. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox
19. Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies
20. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies
21. Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks
22. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays
23. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants
24. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers
25. Jered Weaver, SP, Angels
26. Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers
27. Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals
28. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
29. David Wright, 3B, Mets
30. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers
31. CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees
32. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees
33. Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners
34. Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies
35. Hunter Pence, OF, Phillies
36. Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies
37. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
38. Ian Kennedy, SP, Diamondbacks
39. David Price, SP, Rays
40. Dan Haren, SP, Diamondbacks
41. Alex Gordon, OF, Royals
42. Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers
43. Michael Young, DH, Rangers
44. Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Red Sox
45. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians
46. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds
47. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies
48. Ben Zobrist, 2B, Rays
49. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
50. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees
51. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals
52. Brian McCann, C, Braves
53. Mike Napoli, C, Rangers
54. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox
55. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies
56. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
57. Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves
58. Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox
59. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
60. Buster Posey, C, Giants
61. James Shields, SP, Rays
62. Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox
63. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
64. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves
65. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants
66. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Brewers
67. Zack Greinke, SP, Brewers
68. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
69. Alex Avila, C, Tigers
70. Lance Berkman, 1B, Cardinals
71. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians
72. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
73. Michael Bourn, OF, Braves
74. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
75. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phillies
76. John Axford, RP, Brewers
77. C.J. Wilson, SP, Angels
78. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers
79. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers
80. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
81. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves
82. Michael Pineda, SP, Yankees
83. Mariano Rivera, RP, Yankees
84. Michael Morse, OF, Nationals
85. Billy Butler, DH, Royals
86. Drew Storen, RP, Nationals
87. Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
88. Michael Cuddyer, OF, Rockies
89. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
90. Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox
91. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies
92. Corey Hart, OF, Brewers
93. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
94. Joe Mauer, C, Twins
95. Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks
96. Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals
97. Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals
98. Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers
99. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
100. Jeff Francoeur, OF, Royals

Last five out: Brian Wilson, RP, Giants; Howard Kendrick, 2B, Angels; Adam Lind, 1B, Blue Jays; J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles; Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees.

Top 100 by position: Outfielders 29, starting pitchers 23, third basemen 10, first basemen 9, second basemen 8, catchers 7, shortstops 6, closers 5, designated hitters 3.

PREVIOUS:  Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, designated hitters, outfielders, starting pitchers, closers

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Thursday, February 9, 2012

Fantasy baseball: Early 2012 rankings -- outfielders

When do you select Ryan Braun?

In my mind, that's the most difficult decision on draft day.

With the Brewers outfielder and reigning National League MVP facing a 50-game suspension for allegedly testing positive for having an elevated testosterone level in a drug test, you must decide if you want to take a top-three talent in the third, fourth or fifth round.

If Braun was scheduled to play from the start of the season, I'd rank him No. 3 overall, behind Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. Now, his season likely won't begin until Milwaukee's 50th game, which is scheduled for Thursday, May 31.

If you select Braun, you could play him the week he returns and get four games out of the player who batted .332 with 109 runs, 33 homers, 111 RBI and 33 steals last season. Or you could wait and play him the following week, which is Week 9.

The dilemma: Eight or nine weeks without a player you'll be tempted to take in the third round, once most of the hammers have come off the board.

The solution: Select Braun as your No. 2 outfielder, after you have taken a stud in the first few rounds. That way, his absence won't be felt as much for the first eight weeks.

In our overall top 100, which we will post after the rankings of the starting pitchers and closers, we have Braun No. 42 overall -- an ideal mid-fourth-round pick in a 12-team league.

At that point, he will be much too good to pass up.

If the opposing owners give you grief about the eight or nine weeks Braun will be out of your lineup, give them these numbers: .312, 101, 32, 106 and 19. Those are Braun's five-year career norms for batting average, runs scored, homers, RBI and steals, respectively.

On to the top 60 outfielders ...

Note: All players are ranked at the positions at which they are expected to spend the most time in 2012, not all positions at which they are eligible. ... Stats are from 2011.

Rank, player, team R-HR-RBI-SB-Avg.
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 105-43-103-9-.302
2. Matt Kemp, Dodgers 115-39-126-40-.324
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox 119-32-105-39-.321
4. Curtis Granderson, Yankees 136-41-119-25-.262
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 92-26-92-20-.295
6. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks 105-31-88-21-.289
7. Josh Hamilton, Rangers 80-25-94-8-.298
8. Matt Holliday, Cardinals 83-22-75-2-.296
9. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 87-23-89-23-.259
10. Hunter Pence, Astros 84-22-97-8-.314
11. Shane Victorino, Phillies 95-17-61-19-.279
12. Mike Stanton, Marlins 79-34-87-5-.262
13. Alex Gordon, Royals 101-23-87-17-.303
14. Nelson Cruz, Rangers 64-29-87-9-.263
15. Ryan Braun, Brewers 109-33-111-33-.332
16. Carl Crawford, Red Sox 65-11-56-18-.255
17. Jay Bruce, Reds 84-32-97-8-.256
18. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians 37-8-36-12-.259
19. Michael Bourn, Braves 94-2-50-61-.294
20. Desmond Jennings, Rays 44-10-25-20-.259
21. Michael Morse, Nationals 73-31-95-2-.289
22. Chris Young, Diamondbacks 89-20-71-22-.236
23. Michael Cuddyer, Twins 70-20-70-11-.284
24. Jason Heyward, Braves 50-14-42-9-.227
25. Corey Hart, Brewers 80-26-63-7-.285
26. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals 78-22-84-4-.300
27. Andre Ethier, Dodgers 67-11-62-0-.292
28. Adam Jones, Orioles 68-25-83-12-.280
29. Jeff Francoeur, Royals 77-20-87-22-.285
30. Jayson Werth, Nationals 69-20-58-19-.232
31. Martin Prado, Braves 66-13-57-4-.260
32. Melky Cabrera, Giants 102-18-87-20-.305
33. Nick Markakis, Orioles 72-15-73-12-.284
34. B.J. Upton, Rays 82-23-81-36-.243
35. Nick Swisher, Yankees 81-23-85-2-.260
36. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners 80-5-47-40-.272
37. Drew Stubbs, Reds 92-15-44-40-.243
38. Coco Crisp, Athletics 69-8-54-49-.264
39. Logan Morrison, Marlins 54-23-72-2-.247
40. Delmon Young, Tigers 54-12-64-1-.268
41. Brett Gardner, Yankees 87-7-36-49-.259
42. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins 78-5-36-40-.296
43. Alex Rios, White Sox 64-13-44-11-.227
44. Matt Joyce, Rays 69-19-75-13-.277
45. Carlos Quentin, Padres 53-24-77-1-.254
46. Brennan Boesch, Tigers 75-16-54-5-.283
47. Cameron Maybin, Padres 82-9-40-40-.264
48. Angel Pagan, Giants 68-7-56-32-.262
49. Torii Hunter, Angels 80-23-82-5-.262
50. Peter Bourjos, Angels 72-12-43-22-.271
51. Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays 75-14-53-5-.225
52. Jose Tabata, Pirates 53-4-21-16-.266
53. Lucas Duda, Mets 38-10-50-1-.292
54. Jason Kubel, Diamondbacks 37-12-58-1-.273
55. Josh Willingham, Twins 69-29-98-4-.246
56. Vernon Wells, Angels 60-25-66-9-.218
57. John Mayberry, Phillies 37-15-49-8-.273
58. Austin Jackson, Tigers 90-10-45-22-.249
59. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 50-26-88-2-.244
60. Dexter Fowler, Rockies 84-5-45-12-.266

Last three out: Denard Span, Twins; Jon Jay, Cardinals; Grady Sizemore, Indians.

Eligibility notes: The Rays' Ben Zobrist is eligible in the outfield, but is much more valuable at second base. ... The Cardinals' Lance Berkman is listed at first base, where he is taking over for Albert Pujols.

Key stats: Bautista is deserving of top-three overall status after averaging 49 home runs, 114 RBI, 107 runs and nine stolen bases the last two seasons. In 2011, he increased his batting average 42 points to .302.

PREVIOUS: Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, designated hitters

NEXT: Starting pitchers

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